Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Airline Disruption
  Management
  Disruption management during the airline scheduling process can be
compartmentalized into proactive and reactive processes depending upon the time
of schedule execution. The state of the art for decision-making in airline
disruption management involves a heuristic human-centric approach that does not
categorically study uncertainty in proactive and reactive processes for
managing airline schedule disruptions. Hence, this paper introduces an
uncertainty transfer function model (UTFM) framework that characterizes
uncertainty for proactive airline disruption management before schedule
execution, reactive airline disruption management during schedule execution,
and proactive airline disruption management after schedule execution to enable
the construction of quantitative tools that can allow an intelligent agent to
rationalize complex interactions and procedures for robust airline disruption
management. Specifically, we use historical scheduling and operations data from
a major U.S. airline to facilitate the development and assessment of the UTFM,
defined by hidden Markov models (a special class of probabilistic graphical
models) that can efficiently perform pattern learning and inference on portions
of large data sets.
