Popular Ensemble Methods: An Empirical Study
  An ensemble consists of a set of individually trained classifiers (such as
neural networks or decision trees) whose predictions are combined when
classifying novel instances. Previous research has shown that an ensemble is
often more accurate than any of the single classifiers in the ensemble. Bagging
(Breiman, 1996c) and Boosting (Freund and Shapire, 1996; Shapire, 1990) are two
relatively new but popular methods for producing ensembles. In this paper we
evaluate these methods on 23 data sets using both neural networks and decision
trees as our classification algorithm. Our results clearly indicate a number of
conclusions. First, while Bagging is almost always more accurate than a single
classifier, it is sometimes much less accurate than Boosting. On the other
hand, Boosting can create ensembles that are less accurate than a single
classifier -- especially when using neural networks. Analysis indicates that
the performance of the Boosting methods is dependent on the characteristics of
the data set being examined. In fact, further results show that Boosting
ensembles may overfit noisy data sets, thus decreasing its performance.
Finally, consistent with previous studies, our work suggests that most of the
gain in an ensemble's performance comes in the first few classifiers combined;
however, relatively large gains can be seen up to 25 classifiers when Boosting
decision trees.
