Soft Triangles for Expert Aggregation
  We consider the problem of eliciting expert assessments of an uncertain
parameter. The context is risk control, where there are, in fact, three
uncertain parameters to be estimates. Two of these are probabilities, requiring
the that the experts be guided in the concept of "uncertainty about
uncertainty." We propose a novel formulation for expert estimates, which relies
on the range and the median, rather than the variance and the mean. We discuss
the process of elicitation, and provide precise formulas for these new
distributions.
