100
Section 4
Section 1
Section 4
absolute increase
(and percent increase)
Every region faces more severe and/or frequent compound 
and cascading climate risks
a) Increase in the population exposed to sea level rise from 2020 to 2040
Frequency of events that currently occur 
on average once every 100 years
Multiple climate change risks 
will increasingly compound 
and cascade in the near term
c) Example of complex risk, where impacts from climate extreme events have cascading 
effects on food, nutrition, livelihoods and well-being of smallholder farmers
Food yield
and quality losses
Food prices 
increase
Reduced labour 
capacity 
Reduced
food security
Decreased 
quality of life
Increased malnutrition
(particularly maternal malnutrition 
and child undernutrition)
Reduced soil moisture 
and health
Bi-directional 
compounding
Uni-directional 
compounding or domino
Contagion effect on 
multiple risks
Reduced household 
income
Key
Extreme heat and drought
Exposure to a coastal ﬂooding event that 
currently occurs on average once every 100 years
More frequent and more intense
Annual event
Twice-a-century event
No change
Decadal event
b) Increased frequency of extreme 
sea level events by 2040
Africa
Asia
Australasia
Central and
South America
Europe
North America
Small Islands
0.10 million (57%)
0.18 million
0.34 million
0.69 million
2.40 million
0.38 million (57%)
0.67 million
63.81 million
0.01 million (52%)
0.02 million
16.36 million (26%)
2.29 million (95%)
0.24 million (35%)
0.24 million (71%)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Increase due to sea level rise only
Increase due to sea level rise and population change
Population exposed  in 2020
SSP2-4.5
Additional population exposed in 2040
0.1
million
1
million
The absence of a circle indicates an inability to perform 
an assessment due to a lack of data.