(high conﬁdence)
88 
The timing of various cut-offs for assessment differs by WG report and the aspect assessed. See footnote 1 in Section 1.
89 
See CSB.2 for a discussion of scenarios and pathways.
90 
See Annex I: Glossary.
2.3.1. The Gap Between Mitigation Policies, Pledges and 
Pathways that Limit Warming to 1.5°C or Below 2°C
Global GHG emissions in 2030 associated with the implementation 
of NDCs announced prior to COP2691 would make it likely that 
warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and would 
make it harder to limit warming below 2°C – if no additional 
commitments are made or actions taken (Figure 2.5, Table 2.2). 
A substantial ‘emissions gap’ exists as global GHG emissions in 2030 
associated with the implementation of NDCs announced prior to COP26 
would be similar to or only slightly below 2019 emission levels and 
higher than those associated with modelled mitigation pathways that 
limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot or to 
2°C (>67%), assuming immediate action, which implies deep, rapid, 
and sustained global GHG emission reductions this decade (high 
conﬁdence) (Table 2.2, Table 3.1, 4.1).92 The magnitude of the emissions 
gap depends on the global warming level considered and whether only 
unconditional or also conditional elements of NDCs93 are considered 
(high conﬁdence) (Table 2.2). Modelled pathways that are consistent 
with NDCs announced prior to COP26 until 2030 and assume no 
increase in ambition thereafter have higher emissions, leading 
88 
The timing of various cut-offs for assessment differs by WG report and the aspect assessed. See footnote 58 in Section 1.
89 
See CSB.2 for a discussion of scenarios and pathways.
90 
See Annex I: Glossary.