Models do not represent changes in ﬁshing activities and some extreme climatic 
conditions. Projected changes in the Arctic regions have low conﬁdence due to uncertainties associated with modelling multiple interacting 
drivers and ecosystem responses.
4Projected regional impacts reﬂect biophysical responses to changing temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, wind, and CO2 
enhancement of growth and water retention in currently cultivated areas. Models assume that irrigated areas are not water-limited. 
Models do not represent pests, diseases, future agro-technological changes and some extreme climate responses.
Future climate change is projected to increase the severity of impacts 
across natural and human systems and will increase regional differences
Areas with little or no 
production, or not assessed
1Projected temperature conditions above 
the estimated historical (1850-2005) 
maximum mean annual temperature 
experienced by each species, assuming 
no species relocation. 
2Includes 30,652 species of birds, 
mammals, reptiles, amphibians, marine 
ﬁsh, benthic marine invertebrates, krill, 
cephalopods, corals, and seagrasses.
a) Risk of 
species losses
b) Heat-humidity 
risks to 
human health
c) Food production 
impacts
3Projected regional impacts utilize a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity may induce 
hyperthermia that poses a risk of mortality. The duration and intensity of heatwaves are not presented here. Heat-related health outcomes 
vary by location and are highly moderated by socio-economic, occupational and other non-climatic determinants of individual health and 
socio-economic vulnerability. The threshold used in these maps is based on a single study that synthesized data from 783 cases to 
determine the relationship between heat-humidity conditions and mortality drawn largely from observations in temperate climates.
Historical 1991–2005