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Current Status and Trends
Section 2
Cross-Section Box.2: Scenarios, Global Warming Levels, and Risks
Modelled scenarios and pathways102 are used to explore future emissions, climate change, related impacts and risks, and possible mitigation and 
adaptation strategies and are based on a range of assumptions, including socio-economic variables and mitigation options. These are quantitative 
projections and are neither predictions nor forecasts. Global modelled emission pathways, including those based on cost effective approaches 
contain regionally differentiated assumptions and outcomes, and have to be assessed with the careful recognition of these assumptions. Most 
do not make explicit assumptions about global equity, environmental justice or intra-regional income distribution. IPCC is neutral with regard 
to the assumptions underlying the scenarios in the literature assessed in this report, which do not cover all possible futures103. {WGI Box SPM.1; 
WGII Box SPM.1; WGIII Box SPM.1; SROCC Box SPM.1; SRCCL Box SPM.1} 
Socio-economic Development, Scenarios, and Pathways
The ﬁve Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1 to SSP5) were designed to span a range of challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. 
For the assessment of climate impacts, risk and adaptation, the SSPs are used for future exposure, vulnerability and challenges to adaptation. 
Depending on levels of GHG mitigation, modelled emissions scenarios based on the SSPs can be consistent with low or high warming levels104. 
There are many different mitigation strategies that could be consistent with different levels of global warming in 2100 (see Figure 4.1). 
{WGI Box SPM.1; WGII Box SPM.1; WGIII Box SPM.1, WGIII Box TS.5, WGIII Annex III; SRCCL Box SPM.1, SRCCL Figure SPM.2}
WGI assessed the climate response to ﬁve illustrative scenarios based on SSPs105 that cover the range of possible future development of anthropogenic 
drivers of climate change found in the literature. These scenarios combine socio-economic assumptions, levels of climate mitigation, land use and 
air pollution controls for aerosols and non-CH4 ozone precursors.