coral 
reefs decline 
>99%
e.g. coral 
reefs decline 
by 70–90%
Land-based systems
Ocean/coastal ecosystems
Food insecurity
(availability, access)
a) High risks are now assessed to occur at lower global warming levels
The SSP1 pathway illustrates 
a world with low population 
growth, high income, and 
reduced inequalities, food 
produced in low GHG 
emission systems, effective 
land use regulation and high 
adaptive capacity (i.e., low 
challenges to adaptation). 
The SSP3 pathway has the 
opposite trends.
shading represents the 
uncertainty ranges for 
the low and high 
emissions scenarios
2011-2020 was 
around 1.1°C warmer 
than 1850-1900
Carbon
loss
••
•
••
••
••
•••
Biodiversity
loss
Risks are 
assessed with 
medium conﬁdence
Limited adaptation (failure to proactively 
adapt; low investment in health systems); 
incomplete adaptation (incomplete 
adaptation planning; moderate investment 
in health systems); proactive adaptation 
(proactive adaptation management; higher 
investment in health systems)