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Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
Projected cumulative future CO2 emissions over the lifetime of existing 
fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement95 exceed the 
total cumulative net CO2 emissions in pathways that limit warming to 
1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot. They are approximately 
equal to total cumulative net CO2 emissions in pathways that limit 
warming to 2°C with a likelihood of 83%96 (see Figure 3.5). Limiting 
warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower will result in stranded assets. 
About 80% of coal, 50% of gas, and 30% of oil reserves cannot be 
burned and emitted if warming is limited to 2°C. Signiﬁcantly more 
reserves are expected to remain unburned if warming is limited to 
1.5°C. (high conﬁdence) {WGIII SPM B.7, WGIII Box 6.3}
95 
Abatement here refers to human interventions that reduce the amount of GHGs that are released from fossil fuel infrastructure to the atmosphere. {WGIII SPM footnote 34}
96 
WGI provides carbon budgets that are in line with limiting global warming to temperature limits with different likelihoods, such as 50%, 67% or 83%. {WGI Table SPM.2}
Table 2.2 Projected global emissions in 2030 associated with policies implemented by the end of 2020 and NDCs announced prior to COP26, and associated 
emissions gaps. Emissions projections for 2030 and gross differences in emissions are based on emissions of 52–56 GtCO2-eq yr–1 in 2019 as assumed in underlying model 
studies97. (medium conﬁdence) {WGIII Table SPM.1} (Table 3.1, Cross-Section Box.2) 
95 
Abatement here refers to human interventions that reduce the amount of GHGs that are released from fossil fuel infrastructure to the atmosphere.