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Section 4
Section 1
Section 4
Global warming will continue to increase in the near term (2021–2040) 
mainly due to increased cumulative CO2 emissions in nearly all 
considered scenarios and pathways. In the near term, every 
region in the world is projected to face further increases in 
climate hazards (medium to high conﬁdence, depending on 
region and hazard), increasing multiple risks to ecosystems 
and humans (very high conﬁdence). In the near term, natural 
variability149 will modulate human-caused changes, either attenuating 
or amplifying projected changes, especially at regional scales, with little 
effect on centennial global warming. Those modulations are important 
to consider in adaptation planning. Global surface temperature in any 
single year can vary above or below the long-term human-induced 
trend, due to natural variability. By 2030, global surface temperature 
in any individual year could exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900 with a 
probability between 40% and 60%, across the five scenarios assessed 
in WGI (medium confidence). The occurrence of individual years with 
global surface temperature change above a certain level does not 
imply that this global warming level has been reached. If a large 
explosive volcanic eruption were to occur in the near term150 , it 
would temporarily and partially mask human-caused climate change 
by reducing global surface temperature and precipitation, especially 
over land, for one to three years (medium conﬁdence). {WGI SPM B.1.3, 
WGI SPM B.1.4, WGI SPM C.1, WGI SPM C.2, WGI Cross-Section Box TS.1, 
WGI Cross-Chapter Box 4.1; WGII SPM B.3, WGII SPM B.3.1; 
WGIII Box SPM.1 Figure 1}
The level of risk for humans and ecosystems will depend on near-term 
trends in vulnerability, exposure, level of socio-economic 
development and adaptation (high conﬁdence).