In all scenarios considered by WGI except the very high emissions scenario, the midpoint of the 
ﬁrst 20-year running average period during which the assessed global warming reaches 1.5°C lies in the ﬁrst half of the 2030s. In the very high GHG emissions scenario, this 
mid-point is in the late 2020s. The median ﬁve-year interval at which a 1.5°C global warming level is reached (50% probability) in categories of modelled pathways considered 
in WGIII is 2030–2035. {WGI SPM B.1.3, WGI Cross-Section Box TS.1, WGIII Table 3.2} (Cross-Section Box.2)
115 See Cross-Section Box.2.
116 Based on additional scenarios.
Global warming will continue to increase in the near term in 
nearly all considered scenarios and modelled pathways. Deep, 
rapid, and sustained GHG emissions reductions, reaching net 
zero CO2 emissions and including strong emissions reductions 
of other GHGs, in particular CH4, are necessary to limit warming 
to 1.5°C (>50%) or less than 2°C (>67%) by the end of century 
(high conﬁdence). The best estimate of reaching 1.5°C of global 
warming lies in the ﬁrst half of the 2030s in most of the considered 
scenarios and modelled pathways114. In the very low GHG emissions 
scenario (SSP1-1.9), CO2 emissions reach net zero around 2050 and the 
best-estimate end-of-century warming is 1.4°C, after a temporary overshoot 
(see Section 3.3.4) of no more than 0.1°C above 1.5°C global warming. 
Global warming of 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless 
deep reductions in CO2 and other GHG emissions occur in the coming 
decades.