73
Long-Term Climate and Development Futures
Section 3
c1) Maize yield4
c2) Fisheries yield5
Changes (%) in 
maximum catch 
potential
Changes (%) in yield
 
 
-20
-10
-3
-30
-25
-15
-35%
+20
+30
+35%
+10
+3
+25
+15
1
0 days
300
100
200
10
150
250
50
365 days
0.1
0%
80
10
40
1
20
60
5
100%
Areas with model disagreement
Examples of impacts without additional adaptation
2.4 – 3.1°C
4.2 – 5.4°C
1.5°C
3.0°C
1.7 – 2.3°C
0.9 – 2.0°C
3.4 – 5.2°C
1.6 – 2.4°C
3.3 – 4.8°C
3.9 – 6.0°C
2.0°C
4.0°C
Percentage of animal 
species and seagrasses 
exposed to potentially 
dangerous temperature 
conditions1, 2
Days per year where 
combined temperature and 
humidity conditions pose a risk 
of mortality to individuals3
5Projected regional impacts reﬂect ﬁsheries and marine ecosystem responses to ocean physical and biogeochemical conditions such as 
temperature, oxygen level and net primary production. Models do not represent changes in ﬁshing activities and some extreme climatic 
conditions. Projected changes in the Arctic regions have low conﬁdence due to uncertainties associated with modelling multiple interacting 
drivers and ecosystem responses.
4Projected regional impacts reﬂect biophysical responses to changing temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, wind, and CO2 
enhancement of growth and water retention in currently cultivated areas. Models assume that irrigated areas are not water-limited. 
Models do not represent pests, diseases, future agro-technological changes and some extreme climate responses.