65
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
which drives
that change
inﬂuence
Emissions
a) AR6 integrated assessment framework on future climate, impacts and mitigation
Climate
Impacts / Risks
Mitigation Policy
Adaptation Policy
Socio-economic changes
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
°C
b) Scenarios and pathways across AR6 Working Group reports
c) Determinants of risk
Temperature for SSP-based scenarios over the 
21st century and C1-C8 at 2100
Risks
can be 
represented as 
“burning embers”
C1-C8 in 2100
increasing risk
2050
2100
0
50
100
2050
2100
GtCO2/yr
SSP1-1.9
SSP1-2.6
SSP2-4.5
SSP3-7.0
SSP5-8.5
SSP1-1.9
SSP1-2.6
SSP2-4.5
SSP3-7.0
SSP5-8.5
RFC1
Unique and
threatened systems
color shading shows 
C1-C8 category
color shading shows 
range for SSP3-7.0 
and SSP1-2.6
Category 
in WGIII
Category description
GHG emissions scenarios
(SSPx-y*) in WGI & WGII 
RCPy** in
WGI & WGII
C1
limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%)
with no or limited overshoot
Very low (SSP1-1.9)
Low (SSP1-2.6) 
RCP2.6
C2
return warming to 1.5°C (>50%)
after a high overshoot
C3
limit warming to 2°C (>67%)
C4
limit warming to 2°C (>50%)
C5
limit warming to 2.5°C (>50%)
C6
limit warming to 3°C (>50%)
Intermediate (SSP2-4.5)
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.