59
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
a) Global GHG emissions
b) 2030
10
20
30
0
40
50
60
70
10
20
30
0
40
50
60
70
GHG emissions (GtCO2-eq/yr)
2020
2025
2015
2010
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Limit warming to 2ºC (>67%)
or 1.5 (>50%) after high
overshoot with NDCs until 2030
Trend from implemented policies
2019
Limit warming to
1.5ºC (>50%) with 
no or limited overshoot
Limit warming 
to 2ºC (>67%)
to be on-track to limit 
warming to 1.5°C, 
we need much more 
reduction by 2030
-4%
+5%
-26%
-43%
Projected global GHG emissions from NDCs announced prior to 
COP26 would make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C and 
also make it harder after 2030 to limit warming to below 2°C
Past GHG emissions and 
uncertainty for 2015 and 2019
(dot indicates the median)
Past GHG emissions and 
uncertainty for 2015 and 2019
(dot indicates the median)
Figure 2.5 Global GHG emissions of modelled pathways (funnels in Panel a), and projected emission outcomes from near-term policy assessments for 2030 (Panel b). 
Panel a shows global GHG emissions over 2015-2050 for four types of assessed modelled global pathways:
 - Trend from implemented policies: Pathways with projected near-term GHG emissions in line with policies implemented until the end of 2020 and extended with comparable 
ambition  levels beyond 2030 (29 scenarios across categories C5–C7, WGIII Table SPM.2).