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Long-Term Climate and Development Futures
Section 3
Figure 3.3: Synthetic risk diagrams of global and sectoral assessments and examples of regional key risks. The burning embers result from a literature based 
expert elicitation. Panel (a): Left - Global surface temperature changes in °C relative to 1850–1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model simulations with 
observational constraints based on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity. Very likely ranges are shown for the low and high 
GHG emissions scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0). Right - Global Reasons for Concern, comparing AR6 (thick embers) and AR5 (thin embers) assessments. Diagrams are shown for 
each RFC, assuming low to no adaptation (i.e., adaptation is fragmented, localised and comprises incremental adjustments to existing practices). However, the transition to a very 
high-risk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits. The horizontal line denotes the present global warming of 1.1°C which is used to separate the observed, past 
impacts below the line from the future projected risks above it. Lines connect the midpoints of the transition from moderate to high risk across AR5 and AR6. Panel (b): Risks for 
land-based systems and ocean/coastal ecosystems. Diagrams shown for each risk assume low to no adaptation. Text bubbles indicate examples of impacts at a given warming level. 
Panel (c): Left - Global mean sea level change in centimetres, relative to 1900. The historical changes (black) are observed by tide gauges before 1992 and altimeters afterwards. 
The future changes to 2100 (coloured lines and shading) are assessed consistently with observational constraints based on emulation of CMIP, ice-sheet, and glacier models, and 
likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.