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Long-Term Climate and Development Futures
Section 3
from zero or low-carbon sources in 2050, such as renewables or 
fossil fuels with CO2 capture and storage, combined with increased 
electriﬁcation of energy demand. Such pathways meet energy service 
demand with relatively low energy use, through e.g., enhanced energy 
efﬁciency and behavioural changes and increased electriﬁcation of 
energy end use. Modelled global pathways limiting global warming to 
1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot generally implement such 
changes faster than pathways limiting global warming to 2°C (>67%). 
(high conﬁdence) {WGIII SPM C.3, WGIII SPM C.3.2, WGIII SPM C.4, 
WGIII TS.4.2; SR1.5 SPM C.2.2}
AFOLU mitigation options, when sustainably implemented, can 
deliver large-scale GHG emission reductions and enhanced CO2 
removal; however, barriers to implementation and trade-offs 
may result from the impacts of climate change, competing 
demands on land, conﬂicts with food security and livelihoods, 
the complexity of land ownership and management systems, 
and cultural aspects (see 3.4.1). All assessed modelled pathways 
that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower by 2100 include land-based 
mitigation and land-use change, with most including different 
combinations of reforestation, afforestation, reduced deforestation, and 
bioenergy. However, accumulated carbon in vegetation and soils is at 
risk from future loss (or sink reversal) triggered by climate change and 
disturbances such as ﬂood, drought, ﬁre, or pest outbreaks, or future 
poor management.