increase in the 
length of ﬁre season
e.g. over 100 million 
additional people 
exposed
0
–1
1950
2000 2015
2050
1
2
3
4
50
100
0
75
25
Resource-rich
coastal cities
Large tropical
agricultural
deltas
Arctic
communities
Urban
atoll islands
r
R
Maximum potential
response
No-to-moderate
response
r
R
r
R
r
R
r
R
Global mean sea level rise relative to 1900
50
100
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
75
25
cm
cm
very high
high
intermediate
low
very low
c) Risks to coastal geographies increase with sea level rise and depend on responses
1986-2005
baseline
low-likelihood, high impact 
storyline, including ice-sheet 
instability processes
••••
•••
••
••••
••••
•••
d) Adaptation and 
socio-economic pathways 
affect levels of climate 
related risks
b) Risks differ by system
SSP1
SSP3
Risks are increasing with every increment of warming
Global
aggregate
impacts
Unique &
threatened
systems
Extreme
weather
events
Distribution
of impacts
Large scale
singular
events
risk is the potential for 
adverse consequences
•••
••
••
Tree
mortality
e.g. coral 
reefs decline 
>99%
e.g. coral 
reefs decline 
by 70–90%
Land-based systems
Ocean/coastal ecosystems
Food insecurity
(availability, access)
a) High risks are now assessed to occur at lower global warming levels
The SSP1 pathway illustrates 
a world with low population 
growth, high income, and 
reduced inequalities, food 
produced in low GHG 
emission systems, effective 
land use regulation and high 
adaptive capacity (i.e., low 
challenges to adaptation). 
The SSP3 pathway has the 
opposite trends.