70
Section 3
Section 1
Section 3
2011-2020 was 
around 1.1°C warmer 
than 1850-1900
the last time global surface temperature was sustained 
at or above 2.5°C was over 3 million years ago
4°C
The world at
2°C
The world at
1.5°C
+
+
1
0
The world at
3°C
The world at
small absolute 
changes may 
appear large as 
% or σ changes 
in dry regions
urbanisation 
further intensifies 
heat extremes
c) Annual wettest-day precipitation change
Global warming level (GWL) above 1850-1900
a) Annual hottest-day temperature change
b) Annual mean total column soil moisture change
°C
Annual wettest day precipitation is projected to increase 
in almost all continental regions, even in regions where 
projected annual mean soil moisture declines.
Annual hottest day temperature is projected to increase most 
(1.5-2 times the GWL) in some mid-latitude and semi-arid 
regions, and in the South American Monsoon region.
Projections of annual mean soil moisture largely follow 
projections in annual mean precipitation but also show 
some differences due to the inﬂuence of evapotranspiration.
change (%)
-40 -30 -20 -10
0 10 20 30 40
+
+
change (°C)
0 
1 
2 
3
4 
5 
6 
7
-1.5 
-1.0 
-0.5 
0 
0.5 
1.0 
1.5
change (σ)
With every increment of global warming, regional changes in mean 
climate and extremes become more widespread and pronounced
Figure 3.1: Projected changes of annual maximum daily temperature, annual mean total column soil moisture CMIP and annual maximum daily precipitation 
at global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C relative to 1850-1900. Simulated (a) annual maximum temperature change (°C), (b) annual mean total column 
soil moisture (standard deviation), (c) annual maximum daily precipitation change (%).