with the 5th-95th percentile 
interval in square brackets. 
Percentage of net zero 
pathways is denoted in 
round brackets. 
Three dots (…) denotes net 
zero not reached for that 
percentile.
Median cumulative net CO2 
emissions across the 
projected scenarios in this 
category until reaching 
net-zero or until 2100, with 
the 5th-95th percentile 
interval in square brackets.
Projected temperature 
change of pathways in this 
category (50% probability 
across the range of climate 
uncertainties), relative to 
1850-1900, at peak 
warming and in 2100, for 
the median value across the 
scenarios and the 5th-95th 
percentile interval in square 
brackets.
Median likelihood that the 
projected pathways in this 
category stay below a given 
global warming level, with 
the 5th-95th percentile 
interval in square brackets.
Projected median GHG 
emissions reductions of 
pathways in the year across 
the scenarios compared to 
modelled 2019, with the 
5th-95th percentile in 
brackets. Negative numbers 
indicate increase in 
emissions compared to 2019
Modelled global emissions 
pathways categorised by 
projected global warming 
levels (GWL). Detailed 
likelihood definitions are 
provided in SPM Box1.  
The five illustrative scenarios 
(SSPx-yy) considered by AR6 
WGI and the Illustrative 
(Mitigation) Pathways 
assessed in WGIII are 
aligned with the tempera-
ture categories and are 
indicated in a separate 
column. Global emission 
pathways contain regionally 
differentiated information. 
This assessment focuses on 
their global characteristics.
...-...
(41%)
[2080-...]
...-...
(12%) 
[2090-...]
no
net-zero
no
peaking
by 2100
no
net-zero
no
net-zero
1780
[1260-2360]
2790
[2440-3520]
[1.4-1.6]
[1.4-1.6]
[1.5-1.