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The Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Iranian Oil This conversation originally appeared in The Iran Primer. On April 22, the Trump Administration announced that it will stop providing sanctions exemptions to countries that import Iranian oil as of May 2. What impact will this move have on Iran? The United States will let sanctions exemptions on the purchase of Iranian oil lapse on May 2. Any company that buys Iranian oil after this deadline could face formidable sanctions penalties from the U.S. Treasury Department. These penalties could come down on a company buying Iranian oil, as well as its bank, insurer, traders, vessels, the flagging authority for the vessels, and other entities linked to the transaction. This intimidating web of liability will cause all reputable companies to avoid violating U.S. sanctions. If the U.S. government offers no leniency, importers of Iranian oil will pull back on purchases as much, and as fast, as possible. Iran exports are slightly over 1 million barrels of oil per day at present, which accounts for Iran’s major source of hard currency. This revenue stream will suffer significantly from the tightened sanctions. In turn, Iran will have greatly increased difficulty funding imports and experience contracting growth. What impact will it have on the countries that rely on Iran for imported oil? What are they likely to do? Companies in the last remaining countries that buy Iranian oil, including China, India, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea, will try to negotiate with the United States for leniency. They will simultaneously work to replace Iranian crude cargoes should these negotiations not bear fruit. News reports indicated that traders from these countries made a rash of panicked calls seeking substitutes for Iranian oil immediately following the U.S. administration’s sanctions news. Purchasers in Japan and South Korea are likely to end their consumption of Iranian oil relatively soon. They demonstrated that they could do so last fall, before slowly expanding their purchases over more recent months. China and India, which are the biggest buyers of Iranian oil, and who will struggle most for substitutes, are not likely to be able to completely eliminate Iranian oil purchases. Major refiners in these countries will likely cut ties with Iran, leaving smaller traders and refiners to contemplate whether to tempt fate with the U.S. sanctions. Iraq, which looks to Iran for electric power, has no alternative. It will likely plead with the United States for an exception from possible sanctions penalties. What impact will the end of sanctions waivers have on the global energy market? Which oil producers are most likely to step in and increase their exports to compensate? The U.S. announcement to quickly clamp down on Iranian oil exports after May 2 caught many in the oil market by surprise. Oil prices spiked several dollars on anxiety that Iran’s oil customers will not find substitutes. Sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are already making the heavier grades of crude that these countries and some others sell a bit scarce and costlier. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have promised to expand production to substitute for the Iranian barrels that will come off the market. Along with fellow OPEC member Kuwait, they control about 2 million barrels per day of oil that can more than replace Iran’s exports. Also, U.S. oil companies are adding more and more oil to the global market, around 1 million more barrels this year. While this U.S. oil does not match the grade of Iranian (or Venezuelan) oil squeezed by sanctions, it does help to ameliorate some supply anxieties. Veteran oil market analysts are, however, less than sanguine about the market. Saudi Arabia and the UAE will likely wait to see if the market can strain and accommodate the new sanctions policies before they jump in to help. The Arab Gulf states stand to benefit from high oil prices associated with some scarcity in the market. Also, they are not keen to repeat the experience of last fall. Then they pumped more oil anticipating full U.S. reimposition of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. However, when the United States pulled back at the last minute they were left with a collapse in price. Now, Iran’s oil buyers are dearly hoping that Saudi Arabia and the UAE make good on their supply commitment. What does the Trump administration hope to achieve? And will it work? The Trump administration is using economic pressure to try and compel Iran to cease its support for terrorism, missile proliferation, human rights abuses, destabilizing regional activity, and abandon all nuclear ambitions. The White House does not have an explicit goal of coercing regime change. However, many observers interpret this to be the implicit agenda of the economic pressure policy. There is not a widely held belief that the U.S. policy approach will deliver Iranian capitulation or empower the leadership of a liberal movement in Iran. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of the maximum economic pressure strategy, Iran hawks largely embrace this course as the favored response to abhorrent and threatening acts committed by Iran’s revolutionary leaders. Are there any signs that Iran's economy is being impacted by the Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign? How much more vulnerable is Iran economically since Trump took office in 2017? Iran’s economy has felt the pain of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign. Sanctions reimposed by the administration in November 2018 blacklisted hundreds of Iranian firms and individuals. This caused banks and companies from around the world to ban business ties with Iran. U.S. oil sanctions from November cut Iran’s exports in half from about 2.25 million barrels per day a year ago. November sanctions on most of Iran’s banks, including its central bank, also severed most ties to the international financial system. The effects of these measures show up in Iran’s economic data. The International Monetary Fund said its economy contracted almost 4 percent in 2018 and may contract 6 percent in 2019. Inflation has risen 50 percent from a year ago. What countermeasures is Iran taking to mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions? Iranians have been accustomed to living under international economic restraints, in a ‘resistance economy,’ for years. Banks and companies have a variety of methods to manage difficult international financial transactions and the central government takes a leading role in facilitating imports. This functionality comes with great cost to efficiency and creates many opportunities for corruption and lack of financial transparency. Iranians have pressured European backers of the Iran nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, to develop sanctions-resistant ways for Iran to sell its crude oil and conduct international business. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have announced the formation of INSTEX, a non-bank barter mechanism, to eventually facilitate such trade. Iran responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. What impact would that action have on world oil supplies? Iran has threatened similar moves in the past. Is this reaction more likely now? Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials lashed out at the bitter sanctions news by declaring a willingness to close the Straits of Hormuz if Iran is not allowed to use the waterway. This is a threat that Iran has made before, even while its effects could be devastating to the Islamic Republic. Arresting traffic on this international waterway, through which passes 19 million barrels per day of oil, would be catastrophic for the oil market. It would also stall the movement of agricultural products and goods through this critical waterway, with potentially widescale humanitarian implications. It could be considered an act of war. Iran is very unlikely to carry through on this threat. More from CNAS Sharper: The Future of Russia Relations While the recently released U.S. National Defense Strategy names the People's Republic of China as the greatest pacing threat facing the United States, Russia poses the most i... By Anna Pederson The Cost of Economic War Sanctions, not bombs, have been the weapon chosen to take on the Putin regime. BBC speaks with macroeconomist Rachel Ziemba about the effectiveness of modern economic statecra... By Rachel Ziemba What would happen if Russia defaults on its debt? Adjunct senior fellow Elina Ribakova speaks to Marketplace about how Russia's economic isolationism may largely insulate global markets should Russia default on its debts. By Elina Ribakova Sanctions and Export Controls Explained: What's going on with Russia The United States and its allies have released an unprecedented and sweeping set of sanctions and export controls in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This includes bl... By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Fontaine, Edward Fishman, Elina Ribakova & Emily Kilcrease
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इरानमाथि अमेरिकी प्रतिबन्ध, यसको असर नेपालमा पनि काठमाडौं । अमेरिकाले इरानमाथि प्रतिबन्ध लगाएको छ । आज अर्थात् नोभेम्बर ५ देखि प्रतिबन्ध लागू भएको हो । प्रतिबन्धपछि इरानलाई तेल बेच्न गाह्रो हुनेछ। इरानसँग व्यापार गर्ने देश र कम्पनीसँग अमेरिकाले सबै सम्बन्ध तोड्ने धम्की दिइसकेको छ । अब इरानी तेलको बिक्री नहुने सम्भावना बढेको अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय सञ्चारमाध्यमहरुले उल्लेख गरेका छन् । अमेरिकाले यस्तो धम्की दिईरहेका बेला यूरोपियन यूनियनले भने इरानसँग व्यापार गर्ने कम्पनीहरुलाई आफ्नो समर्थन दिने बताईरहेको छ । तर ति कम्पनीहरु यो प्रतिबन्धबाट प्रभावित होलान रु किनकी इरानसँग व्यापार गर्दा अमेरिकासँगको व्यापारमा सिधा असर पर्न सक्छ । अमेरिकाको धम्कीका कारण विश्वका धेरै देशहरुले इरानसँग तेल किन्न छाडिसकेका छन् । इरानबाट बढी तेल किन्नेमा चीनपछि भारत दोस्रो देश हो। नेपालमा कस्तो पर्ला प्रभाव ? इरानमाथिको प्रतिबन्धले विश्वका धेरै देशमा प्रभाव परेको छ । अमेरिका इरानको तेल व्यापार पुरै सखाप पार्न चाहन्छ । जसले गर्दा आणविक हतियार निर्माण गर्न नसकोस् । अमेरिकाले ८ देशलाई अस्थायी रुपमा इरानबाट आयात गर्न केही समयको लागि इजाजत दिएको छ । अस्थायी इजाजत पाउने देशहरुमा इटाली, भारत, जापान तथा दक्षिण अफ्रिका लगायत रहेका छन् । नेपालले पनि इरानको तेल भारतबाट आयात गर्दै आईरहेको छ । केही समय भने नेपाललाई पनि सहज हुनेछ । तर इरानको प्रतिबन्धले नेपाललाई पनि प्रभावित गर्नेछ । प्रत्यक्ष प्रभावित नगरे पनि भारतले इरानको तेल किन्छ कि किन्दैन भन्ने कुराले नेपाललाई प्रभावित गर्नेछ । नेपालले भारतबाट वार्षिक एक खर्ब ५५ अर्ब रुपैयाँभन्दा बढीको पेट्रोलियम पदार्थ आयात गर्छ । भारतले अलिकति पनि कटौती गरेमा नेपालका पेट्रोल पम्पहरूमा सवारी साधनको लाइन लाग्ने गरेको छ । नेपाल आयल निगमसँग बढीमा ३ महिनासम्मको पेट्रोलियम पदार्थ भण्डारण गर्न सक्ने मात्र क्षमता छ। इरानसँग प्रत्यक्ष कारोबार नगर्दा पनि नेपाललाई घाटा छैन। तर भारतले गरेन भने नेपाल अप्ठेरोमा पर्छ । भारतले इरानबाट ठूलो मात्रा कच्चा तेल आयात गर्छ। त्यो तेल रिफाइन गरेर नेपालले भित्र्याउँछ। भारतले इरानको तेल उठाउन छाड्यो भने नेपालमा पनि तेलको संकट पर्न सक्छ। इरानी राष्ट्रपतिको कडा प्रतिक्रियाः अमेरिकी प्रतिबन्धमाथि इरानी राष्ट्रपति हसन रुहानीले कडा प्रतिक्रिया दिएका छन् । उनले इरानमाथि भएको षड्यन्त्रमा अमेरिका सफल नहुने प्रतिक्रिया दिए । ट्रम्पले इरानलाई प्रतिबन्ध मात्र लगाएका छैनन्। इरानसँग कारोबार गर्नेसँग पनि भविष्यमा सम्बन्ध नराख्ने घोषणा गरेका छन्। भारतमा के भईरहेको छ ? भारतका लागि इरान, इराक, साउदी अरेबिया र भेनेजुएलाले कच्चा तेल उपलब्ध गराउँदै आएका छन् । अहिले इरानमाथि प्रतिबन्ध छ । तर इरानबाहेक अन्य देशहरुबाट आयात भईरहेको छ । जसले गर्दा प्रतिबन्धपछि पर्ने असरलाई न्यूनीकरण गर्न केही हदसम्म सहयोग भईरहेको छ । इरानबाट तेल ल्याउन नपाएपछि भारतको अर्को विकल्प हुन्छ भेनेजुएला। तर भेनेजुएलामाथि पनि प्रतिबन्ध लगाउने तयारी भइरहेको छ। यसो हुँदा भारतलाई तेलको लागि अप्ठ्यारो पर्न सक्छ। अब इरानले के गर्न सक्छ ? इरानमाथिको प्रतिबन्धले तेलको मुल्य बृद्धि हुनेछ । बजारमा तेलको अभाव हुँदा मुल्य बढ्नु स्भाविक हो । जुन अमेरिकाले इरानको तेल निर्यात पुरै खतम पार्ने भनिरहेको छ त्यो सम्भव छैन् । बर यसले तेलको मुल्य बढ्दै जानेछ । जुन देशलाई इरानबाट तेल आयात गर्ने छुट मिलेको छ, यदि उनीहरुलाई चीनको साथ मिलेमा इरान सबैभन्दा बढी तेल बेच्ने देश बन्न सक्छ । जसले गर्दा अमेरिकी प्रतिबन्ध त्यति प्रभावकारी हुँदैन् । बीबीसी हिन्दीबाट अनुवाद AKHABAR ONLINE TV https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeV5s2L97gk&t=21s