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North Korea’s Pukguksong-2 test increases the tension North Korea, officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), has again provoked international condemnation whilst developing its current ballistic missile and nuclear programme. On 12th February 2017, North Korea launched a Pukguksong-2 missile (North Star 2, 북극성 2), from a tracked mobile launch vehicle. The solid-fuel missile is believed to have reached an altitude of 340 miles (550km) and travelled downrange 310 miles (510km) into the East Sea. The missile fell into North Korean territorial waters of the East Sea (disputed by Japan, which it considers it to be the Sea of Japan), and did not pose any risk to Japan. This missile test was primarily of chief concern for the participating nations of the Six-Party talks. The six-party talks were a series of talks held in Beijing, China, which began on 27th August 2003 and were attended by China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. These talks were discontinued on 14th April 2009 following North Korea’s withdrawal. The six representative nations statements that followed the 12th February tests are: China: It opposed North Korean missile tests that run contrary to United Nations resolutions. “All sides should exercise restraint and jointly maintain regional peace and security,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a regular briefing, adding that China would participate in talks at the United Nations on the launch with a “responsible and constructive attitude”. Japan: Shinzo Abe, Japan’s Prime Minister, described the test as “absolutely intolerable”. Japan said further sanctions against North Korea could be discussed at the United Nations, and called on China to take a “constructive” role in responding. North Korea: In his 2017 New Year’s speech the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, said Pyongyang was in the “final stages” of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Russia: Russia’s foreign ministry expressed concern over the launch, RIA news agency quoted the ministry as saying “Moscow also called all related parties to remain calm and to refrain from any actions which may lead to escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula”. South Korea: The Defence Ministry put forward a plan, ‘Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation’, to the South Korean parliament last week, with part of the plan calling for “wiping a certain section of Pyongyang completely off the map”. The operation calls for pre-emptive bombing attacks against locations that Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, is known to frequent. The strike would also target his top military commanders. South Korea intends to use domestically produced surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, the Hyunmoo 3 (현무3) – which has a range of more than 600 miles (960km). There are also growing calls in the South for Seoul to ask the US to once again deploy nuclear weapons on its territory and analysts at the Sejong Institute, called for South Korea to develop and deploy an independent nuclear strike capability. USA: President Trump said: “I just want everybody to understand, and fully know, that the United States of America is behind Japan, our great ally, 100 per cent”. A US administration official said: “Trump and his aides are likely to weigh a series of responses, including new U.S. sanctions to tighten financial controls, an increase in naval and air assets in and around the Korean peninsula, and accelerated installation of new missile defence systems in South Korea”. The official also said: that given that the missile was believed not to have been an ICBM, and the North had not carried out a new nuclear explosion, any response would seek to avoid increasing tension. Speaking in South Korea on Friday, United States Secretary of Defence, James Mattis reassured the South Korean government that the US would retaliate should North Korea launch any attack. “Any attack on the United States, or our allies, will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons would be met with a response that would be effective and overwhelming”, Mattis said. In response to the potential threat from the combined North Korea missile and nuclear programme the United Sates has sought to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system in South Korea and Japan. The United States Army THAAD anti-ballistic missile system is believed to have a 150km altitude ceiling and 200km range. However, there are serious concerns by Russia and China about radar penetration by the South Korean and Japanese THAAD systems and its system intelligence gathering capability. Furthermore, there are dangers in its deployment. The THAAD system was extremely unreliable in its earlier development phase, which must give rise to concerns about civilian aircraft being hit by a THAAD missile. After all, the dangers of such missile systems were seen in the shooting down of Iran Air flight 655, by the United States Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes, on 3rd July 1988 – loss of lives 290. And Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which on 17th July 2014 was shot-down by a Russian-made BUK missile system launched by separatist forces in the Ukraine – loss of lives 298. Military solutions to the vexing situation of Kim Jong-un’s DPRK would appear to extremely limited. Nuclear options would be quite cataclysmic, and even the conventional bombing of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Centre could release radiation that could have serious consequences for China, South Korea and Japan. The huge humanitarian consequences of military strikes or actions seem to outweigh military options. As for boots-on-the-ground, any attempt by South Korea to invade the North with a conventional army, would be met by an overwhelming military response from China, with possible support from Russia. The Chinese People’s Army would swiftly gain control of the North. Given that China and Russia have serious concerns about nuclear proliferation and an arms race on the peninsular; China and Russia would likely seek to maintain a North Korea buffer zone, with a regime loyal to China. It is difficult for many in the West to understand the North Korean regime, its Stalinist ideology, its paranoia, its insecurity. For many, the idea that the North Korean leadership will implode is plausible, but it is doubtful that regime change will happen anytime soon. What we do know, is that South Korea – US large-scale military drills, the forthcoming annual drill is called ‘Key Resolve’ do anger North Korea and ratchet-up tensions on the Korean peninsular. There are those in the US that believe that China could do more to aid the situation. However, China has quite rightly maintained a steadfast position of non-nuclear proliferation and sought a stable Korean peninsular; it has also supported United Nations sanctions against North Korea. On 18th February 2017, the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China further announced the banning of all coal shipments from North Korea. As far as the United States is concerned, President Trump has quite rightly threatened North Korea with retaliatory military action and as president-elect he offered to have talks with Kim Jong-un. It is reported that Trump said: “Who the hell cares? I’ll speak to anybody… There’s a 10 percent or 20 percent chance I could talk him out of having his damn nukes, because who the hell wants him to have nukes?” North Korea has also intimated on several occasions that it would be prepared to talk. US- North Korean dialogue, or a resumption of six-party talks are possibilities, though the window of opportunity is small. North Korea has clearly been severely weakened by sanctions, its people’s are severely impoverished, the nation has become a pariah. Kim Jong-un has gained some leverage in any future negotiations; through its current nuclear and missile development programme. Can a deal be done, to bring peace and long-term stability to the North Korean pensinular? The opportunities for resolving the vexing North Korea situation through dialogue and diplomacy are limited, but it is not beyond US President Trump’s ability to make a purposeful diplomatic first move. © 2017 Dr Robert Frew. All rights reserved.
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वासिङटन: अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प र उत्तर कोरियाली नेता किम जोङ उनबीचको दोस्रो शिखर सम्मेलन आउदो “फेबु्रअरीको अन्त्य तिर हुने” अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपतिको कार्यालय ह्वाईट हाउसले जनाएको छ । उत्तर कोरियाको सत्तारुढ दल कोरियन वकर्स पार्टीको केन्द्रीय कमिटिका उपाध्यक्ष किम योङ चोलसँग ओभल अफिसमा अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति ट्रम्पको भेटपछि राष्ट्रपतिको कार्यालयले यस्तो बताएको हो । “राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रम्पले किम योङ चोलसँग साढे एक घण्टा बैठक गर्नु भयो, बैठकमा आणविक हतियार निःसशस्त्रीकरण र दोस्रो शिखर सम्मेलनका बारेमा छलफल भएको छ,” ह्वाईट हाउसका सञ्चार सचिव सराह सन्डेर्सले भन्नुभयो । उहाँले शिखर बैठकको ठाउँ र आउदो फेब्रुअरीको अन्त्य तिर बैठक गर्ने बारेमा छलफल भएको जानकारी दिनुभयो । दशकौँदेखि उत्तर कोरिया र अमेरिकाबीच जारी द्वन्द्वको अन्त्यको वार्ताको लागि चोलको नेतृत्वमा उत्तर कोरियाली उच्च अधिकारीको टोली वासिङ्टन भ्रमण आएको छ । उत्तर कोरियाली सेनाका ती उच्च सैन्य जर्नेल चोल उत्तर कोरियाली सरकारका एकजना प्रभावशाली व्यक्ति मानिनुहुन्छ । उहाँ उत्तर कोरियाली नेता किम जोङ उनको विश्वास पात्रका रुपमा काम गरिरहेका उच्च सैन्य अधिकारी हुनुहुन्छ । उहाँले ट्रम्प र अमेरिकी उच्च अधिकारीहरुसँग विषेश गरेर दोस्रो शिखर सम्मेलनकै बारेमा छलफल गर्नुभएको छ । किमको गत नोभेम्बरको शुरुमा नै वासिङटनको भ्रमण गर्ने समय तालिका रहेको थियो । तर त्यस समयमा अमेरिका र उत्तर कोरियाबीचको सम्बन्धमा चीसोपना आएपछि सो भ्रमण रद्द भएको थियो । किम जोङ उनले नयाँ वर्षको शुभकामनाको पत्र अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति ट्रम्पलाई पठाएपछि पुनःसम्बन्धका नयाँपन आएको थियो । केही दिन अघिमात्र अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रम्पले उत्तर कोरियाली नेता किम जोङ उनलाई दोस्रो शिखर बैठकसम्बन्धी पत्र पठाएको समाचार अमेरिकी सञ्चारमाध्यमले खुलासा गरेको थियो । उत्तर कोरिया र संयुक्तराज्य अमेरिकाबीचको सम्बन्ध गत वर्षबाट सुधार भएको छ । अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प र उत्तर कोरियाली नेता किम जोङ उनबीच गत जुनमा सिङ्गापुरमा शिखर वार्ता भएको थियो । सो पहिलो शिखर वार्तामा छिट्टै नै अर्को शिखर वार्ता हुने भनिएपनि आउने फेब्रअरीको अन्त्यमा मात्रै हुने भएको हो । दोस्रो शिखर सम्मेलनको आतिथ्यता भने भियतनाले गर्ने इच्छा व्यक्त गरेको छ ।