http___www.ipcs.org_article_east-asia_the-us-acrobatic-responses-to-the-north-korean-riddle-5337.html.xml
https___www.bbc.com_nepali_news-39750790_1.xml
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North Korea has been consistent and uncompromising in its pursuit of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. In 2017, on an average, North Korea carried out missile tests every 2.6 weeks. The North Korean pursuit has brought unimagined success to its nuclear and missile programmes. It is undeniable that Pyongyang is quite close to having its Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM). North Korea already possessed the capacity to reach any part of the Northeast Asia; and its great leap in the past few months towards attaining the capability to reach the US would definitely change the security equation in the region. Earlier, the US had the leisure to follow a policy of ‘strategic patient’ with North Korea, but now, North Korean belligerence has been increasing at an alarming pace and the Washington needs to formulate and execute its Pyongyang policy immediately. Unfortunately, contrary to Pyongyang’s consistency, the US’ responses have till now been confused and insufficient. The US administration led by President Donald Trump has been attempting various strategies simultaneously in a highly incoherent manner. There are statements by US policymakers that do not give any sense of a policy. For example, the US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, stated that the US was keeping all the options, including the military one, on table with regard to the issue of North Korea. On the other hand, in early August, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the US is not pushing for regime change in North Korea. He said, “we do not seek a regime change, we do not seek the collapse of the regime, we do not seek an accelerated reunification of the peninsula, we do not seek an excuse to send our military north of the 38th parallel.” He acknowledged that confrontation with North Korea could be catastrophic and the US would prefer negotiations backed by economic pressure. Meanwhile, the Director of the CIA, Mike Pompeo, who may become the next US National Security Advisor, does not seem to share Tillerson’s views. On 20 July, he signaled that regime change in North Korea would be a better option. Even Vice President Mike Pence indicated that talks with North Korea were not on table in the given circumstances. In a more outrageous statement, US’ Republican Senator Lindsey Graham stated that Trump told him he was “willing to go to war with North Korea if they (North Korea) continued to try to hit America with an ICBM.” He further quoted Trump that "if there's going to be a war to stop him (Kim Jon-un), it will be over there. If thousands die, they will die over there. They're not going to die over here. If Graham’s revelations are true, it is quite contrary to Trump’s earlier stand in when he had said that he would be ‘honoured’ to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for talks. These flip-flops in the US policy on regime change, talks, and military actions and economic sanctions are unlikely to fetch any positive result on the issue. Rather it would make North Korea further suspicious about the US intent. The next challenge for the US administration is regarding winning China’s support in the process of denuclearisng North Korea. Here too, US policy makers have been making contradictory remarks. In fact, Trump himself was quite appreciative of the Chinese President Xi Jinping and in April 2017, he said, “I have great confidence that China will properly deal with North Korea.” However, in July 2017, Trump tweeted that “I am very disappointed in China… they do nothing for us with North Korea, just talks.” Another incoherence in the US policy emanates from the fact that two of its important allies in East Asia – Japan and South Korea – appear to have different approach towards North Korea. Whereas, Japan under Shinzo Abe prefers continuation or rather augmentation of tough approach in dealing with North Korea; and South Korean President Moon Jae-in is placating North Korea for talks. The Trump administration needs to coordinate its policy with them and it has not been easy till now. While North Korea is determined to acquire nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, the US administration has responded with acrobatic stances, which may look interesting and news-worthy but has had no positive impact on the ground. Actually, these stances of the US may further deteriorate the security situation in the region instead of improving it. There could be two explanations for the US’ flip-flops: One, Trump has gathered incompatible people around himself and they are just fumbling in dark; or two, most policy makers in the Trump administration are basically hardliners who want military action on North Korea but since China does not allow it, they are in a fix. It is also possible that both explanations are simultaneously applicable. Whatever the explanation for the US’ flip-flops on North Korea, Washington must realise that unless its North Korea policy becomes consistent, coherent and coordinated, there could be dangerous consequences.
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उत्तर कोरियाली संकटः वार्तामा जोड संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिकाका विदेशमन्त्री रेक्स टिलरसनले कोरियाली प्रायःद्वीपबाट परमाणु अस्त्र हटाउनका लागि उत्तर कोरियासंग वार्ता गर्ने सम्भावना खुला रहेको बताएका छन्। तर उनले अरु देशहरुसमक्ष उत्तर कोरियालाई कूटनीतिक रुपमा एक्ल्याउन आह्वान पनि गरे। संयुक्त राष्ट्रसंघको सुरक्षा परिषदको एउटा विशेष बैठकमा बोल्दै उनले भने, "हामी संयुक्त राष्ट्रसंघका सदस्य राष्ट्रहरुलाई उनीहरुले उत्तर कोरियाका बारेमा गरेका सबै प्रतिबद्धताहरु लागू गर्न आह्वान गर्दछौं।" उत्तर कोरियाका परमाणु र क्षेप्यास्त्र परीक्षणका बारेमा तनाव बढेको समयमा त्यस्तो बैठक आयोजना गरिएको हो। 'द्वन्द्वको खतरा' त्यसअघिका घटनाक्रममा, अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनल्ड ट्रम्पले आफूले उत्तर कोरियासंगको संकट कुटनैतिक ढंगबाट हल गर्न चाहेको तर यो मुद्दामा ठूलो द्वन्द्व समेत हुन सक्ने बताएका थिए। साथै टिलरसनले एउटा रेडियोसंग कुरा गर्दै, अमेरिकाले उत्तर कोरियामा सरकार ढाल्नका लागि होइन कि त्यहाँ रहेका परमाणु अस्त्र हटाउने उद्देश्यका साथ वार्ता गर्ने बताएका थिए। अमेरिकाको न्याशनल पब्लीक रेडियोसंगको कुराकानीका क्रममा विदेशमन्त्री टिलरसनले अमेरिकाले उत्तर कोरियामा सरकार पतन गराउन खोजेको नभई कोरियाली प्राय:द्वीपलाई परमाणु अस्त्र मुक्त पार्न मात्र खोजेको बताए। गाह्रो प्रयास राष्ट्रपति ट्रम्पले उत्तर कोरियासंग उस्को परमाणु र क्षेप्यास्त्र कार्यक्रमहरु बारेको विवादमा आफूले कुटनीतिक परिणाम चाहेको तर त्यस्तो नतिजा हासिल हुन निकै गाह्रो भएको बताएका थिए। "उत्तर कोरियासंग हाम्रो निकै ठूलो स्तरको द्न्द्व हुन सक्ने सम्भावना निश्चय पनि छ," उनको भनाई थियो। राष्ट्रपति ट्रम्पले आफ्ना चिनीयां समकक्षी शी जीनपींगको प्रसंशा गर्दै उनले उत्तर कोरियामाथि दबाब बढाउन ठूलो प्रयास गरिरहेको पनि बताएका थिए। यसैबीच, उत्तर कोरियाले पनि ह्वाईट हाउस र अमेरिकी विमानवाहक पानी जहाजहरुमाथि हमला भएको जस्तो देखाउने गरी नक्कली रुपमा तयार पारिएका प्रोपागाण्डा चलचित्रहरु सार्वजनिक गरेको छ। त्यसअघि रुसका राष्ट्रपति भ्लादिमिर पुटिनले उत्तर कोरियासंग वार्ता पुन आरम्भ गर्न आह्वान गरेका थिए। मस्कोमा जापानी प्रधानमन्त्री शिन्जो आबेसंगको भेटपछि बोल्दै पुटिनले यो मुद्दामा सम्बद्ध सबैपक्षले 'झगडा चर्काउने' खाले शब्दावली प्रयोग नगर्न आग्रह पनि गरेका थिए।