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Supporters of the Iran nuclear deal are in panic mode. Obama administration alumni are warning that President Donald Trump's threats to not certify Iranian compliance next month will unravel a bargain that makes the world safer. European leaders and Iranian envoys say the deal cannot be renegotiated. Quietly, many career State Department officials, according to administration sources, are trying to figure out a way to at least delay Trump's plan to throw the deal into turmoil. The alarm is understandable. If Trump decertifies Iranian compliance with what is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, then it will be up to Congress to vote to impose the crippling sanctions on Iran's banks and oil exports that President Barack Obama waived as part of the nuclear deal. If Congress does that, it really would blow up the nuclear deal. That said, Trump's threats have already gotten some results. Let's start with France. It's true that in his U.N. General Assembly speech, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the importance of staying in the Iran deal. "Renouncing it would be a grave error; not respecting it would be irresponsible," he said. And yet after that speech he told reporters: “Is this agreement enough? No, it is not, given the evolution of the regional situation and increasing pressure that Iran is exerting on the region, and given increased activity by Iran on the ballistic level since the accord.” Today, the position of France and the U.K. is that they oppose reopening the Iran deal, but they favor trying to pressure Iran to agree to supplemental fixes to it, such as removing the sunset provisions that limit Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium and the number of advanced centrifuges they can assemble, and addressing Iran's testing of ballistic missiles. Now let's look at the Iranians. Western defenders of the nuclear deal will say that the agreement lifts only the sanctions on Iran related to nuclear proliferation. Therefore, the U.S. can still punish Iran for its testing of missiles, human rights violations and support for terrorism. The Iranians have never seen it that way. Almost as soon as the deal was implemented in January 2016, Iran's envoys complained that America was not living up to its end of the bargain. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif for example told the New Yorker in April 2016 that the U.S. was obliged to assure European banks that there will be no penalties for doing business with Iran, even though the Treasury Department still maintains sanctions against working with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is Iran's main arm for supporting terrorists throughout the Middle East. Zarif at the time said the deal was still in place, but "if one side does not comply with the agreement then the agreement will start to falter." In other words, part of the Iranian strategy was to use the nuclear deal as leverage to get further concessions. Trump has undermined Iran's strategy by threatening America's exit from the deal. Iran's leaders still talk tough, but so far new U.S. sanctions have not prompted the Iranians to walk away. Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, said this week at the U.N. that there is no renegotiating the deal struck in 2015. Undermining Iran's scheme is a good start. Keeping Iran nervous about U.S. reneging is helpful. But what can Trump do with the leverage he has created? Is Secretary of State Rex Tillerson up to the task of squeezing the Europeans and Iran to address the nuclear agreement's flaws? He has enough on his plate already with North Korea and Syria. Also, Tillerson so far doesn't have much diplomatic success. Just this week, Russia flagrantly violated the "de-confliction" agreement Tillerson negotiated in May for Syria. At this point Trump should consider appointing a special envoy for fixing the Iran deal. Ideally, this candidate should be a critic of the agreement who will not fall into the trap of Obama's negotiators who believed the rapport built with Iranian envoys would lead to a rapprochement with the regime. Finally, Trump's new envoy should be someone with years of experience in arms control and international law. In other words, it should be someone like John Bolton, the former acting U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Unfortunately, Bolton has already made it clear that he opposes the nuclear deal altogether. He recently published his plan for withdrawing it. The ideal candidate to negotiate for the Trump administration would be an opponent of the original deal: That stance gives a negotiator credibility. Bolton himself has a reputation for not playing well with others. Again, to find someone like that would be an asset. Obama's secretary of state, John Kerry, got along famously with his Iranian counterpart, Zarif. They would speak on the phone several times each week. In the end, all of that good will ended in a deal that expires between 2025 and 2030, allows Iran to research and implement more efficient centrifuges, is weak on inspections for military sites, and doesn't address delivery systems for the nuclear weapons the whole world doesn't want Iran to build. We've tried the "nice guy" approach. Time for something tougher. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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इरान परमाणु सम्झौताप्रति प्रतिबद्ध छौँ: फ्रान्स इरानसँग गरिएको परमाणु सम्झौताबारे अमेरिकाले जस्तोसुकै निर्णय लिएपनि फ्रान्स, जर्मनी तथा ब्रिटेनले सो सम्झौतालाई निरन्तरता दिने फ्रान्सेली विदेशमन्त्री बताएका छन्। इरानलाई परमाणु अस्त्रहरू उत्पादन गर्नबाट रोक्नका लागि सो सम्झौता सबैभन्दा उत्तम उपाय भएकाले ती तीन देशहरू सम्झौतालाई जोगाइराख्न प्रतिबद्ध भएको जाँ यिभ ल द्रियाँले बताएका छन्। - ‘पारमाणविक सम्झौताबाट पछि हटे पश्चात्ताप’ - अमेरिकी प्रतिबन्धविरुद्ध इरान आक्रोशित - परमाणु सम्झौताबाट नहट्न इरानको चेतावनी पालना अमेरिका बाहेकका परमाणु सम्झौताका अन्य हस्ताक्षरकर्ता देशहरूले इरानको फाइदालाई प्रत्याभूत गर्न सके तेहरानले उक्त सम्झौताको पालना गर्ने इरानका राष्ट्रपति हसन रुहानीले बताएका थिए। अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनल्ड ट्रम्पले इरानसँगको परमाणु सम्झौता एकदमै काम नलाग्ने भएको भन्दै बारम्बार त्यसको आलोचना गर्दै आएका छन्। आगामी मे १२ को समयसीमाभित्र सो सम्झौता परित्याग गर्ने वा नगर्ने भनेर ट्रम्पले निर्णय लिइसक्नुपर्नेछ। सो विषयबारे छलफल गर्न वासिङ्टन पुगेका ब्रिटिश विदेशमन्त्री बोरिस जन्सनले इरानसँगको परमाणु सम्झौतालाई रद्द नगर्न ट्रम्पलाई आह्वान गरेका छन्। फक्स समाचार च्यानलको एउटा कार्यक्रममा ट्रम्पले मन पराउने ठानिने जन्सनले सो सम्झौता उत्तम नभएको भए पनि आवश्यक भएको बताए। - ‘इरानसँगको सम्झौता खारेज भए युद्ध’ - इरानद्वारा 'परमाणु दस्तावेज'को खण्डन - इरानबारे नयाँ सम्झौता हुन सक्छः ट्रम्प-माक्रों वासिङ्टनमा जन्सनले राष्ट्रपति ट्रम्पसँग भेट गर्ने छैनन्। तर अमेरिकी उपराष्ट्रपति माइक पेन्स, राष्ट्रिय सुरक्षा सल्लाहकार जन बोल्टन तथा अमेरिकी सदनका विदेश नीतिसम्बन्धी नेताहरूलाई भेट गर्नेछन्। जोखिम युरोपेली देशहरूले उक्त सम्झौतालाई निरन्तरता दिन सहमत भए भने पनि अमेरिकाले नयाँ प्रतिबन्धहरू लगाए त्यसले युरोपेली लगानीकर्ताहरूलाई इरानबाट फिर्ता हुने जोखिम निम्ताउन सक्ने विश्लेषकहरू भन्छन्। सन् २०१५ मा गरिएको सो सम्झौताअन्तर्गत तेहरानले उसको पारमाणविक कार्यक्रम सीमित तुल्याउने प्रतिबद्धता जनाएको थियो र बदलामा उसमाथि लगाइएका आर्थिक प्रतिबन्धहरू खुकुलो पारिएका थिए। इरानले उसको परमाणु कार्यक्रम पूर्णतः शान्तिपूर्ण भएको बताउँदै आएको छ र सो सम्झौतामाथि पुनः छलफल गर्न नसकिने उसले ठानेको बताउने गरेको छ।