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After our blog post celebrating the exchange students we were happy to host from the countries of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, and Armenia, we got some comments that our readers would like to know more about the conflicts that have torn these neighbors apart. Your wish is our command, below is an overview of one of the conflicts between these nations written by an Azerbaijani friend of Niagara. We have tried to maintain balance and nonpartisanship while giving our readers an overview. We welcome your feedback or comments! Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia The Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized as a part of the Republic of Azerbaijan, but has been under Armenian occupation since the end of the Cold-War. The region sits entirely surrounded by Azerbaijan, but is the home of a majority Armenian population. The dispute for this region has mostly been at a standstill between the two nations since a cease-fire brokered by Russia in 1994, but just a few weeks ago a conflict broke out that caused the death of at least fifteen soldiers. This escalating conflict has brought the Nagorno-Karabakh region to the forefront of Caucasus politics once more. Before talking about what has happened since late July and any future peace prospects, it would be helpful to briefly remember the past two decades of “cold war” between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Historical Background: Changing Power Balance The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia between the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has its roots in pre-Soviet nationalist struggles. However, after the occupation and annexation of both countries by the Soviet Union in 1920s, the violent relations between the two communities gave its way to cold friendship, marked with inner skepticism and mistrust. The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union has reignited the century-old dispute. The Nagorno-Karabakh decided to join to Armenia in 1988. Azerbaijan’s rejection of the decision of the Karabakh Armenians turned the dispute into a full-fledged war. By the time Russia brokered a ceasefire between the two nations in 1994, one fifth of Azerbaijani territories—the Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts—were under Armenian military occupation, with approximately 20,000 casualties, and almost a million of dislocated Azerbaijani refugees seeking shelter in the rest of the country. Today, we are observing the twentieth anniversary of the ceasefire in 2014, without any real change despite numerous attempts by third parties to bring the leaders of the two sides together to search for a solution. However, looking at the regional power politics, one could conclude that the solution is far beyond the reaches of the two countries. The public debates, especially during the times of elections, demonstrated that Armenian public is tired of isolation and economic costs due to its claims in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia is surrounded by Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and Iran. Georgia is a rising ally of Azerbaijan, while Turkey has closed its borders to all kinds of transaction with Armenia, requiring evacuation of the occupied Azerbaijani territories as a precondition for any change. We need to consider the interest of neighboring countries in explaining the stalemate in the peace negotiations and stagnation in Armenian economy, namely, Russia and the Armenian diaspora, primarily, in the United States and France. Armenia has, primarily due to economic and military dependence, remained the only loyal friend of Russia in the South Caucasus. Being a strategic partner with Armenia is important for Russia, as we are familiar with Georgia’s pro-Western tendencies and Azerbaijan’s increasing engagement with the US and Europe. From this perspective, an unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains an important tool for Russia in controlling Armenia and Azerbaija. An example of this Russian control includes, when the Ukrainian crises erupted, some Armenians suggested the annexation of Crimea to serve as a model for the Nagorno-Karabakh as well. The other key player in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the Armenian diaspora abroad. While their link to the territory can be explained with “romantic diaspora nationalism,” their financial support remains a considerable source for surviving Armenian economy. A major change in the last decade, one that may also alter the power balance in the conflict, is Azerbaijan’s economic revival linked to its export of oil to the West. The completion of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, carrying Azerbaijani oil to Europe via the Turkish port in the Mediterranean, has rescued Azerbaijan from dependence on Russia, to some extent, in exporting its oil via old and underperforming Russian pipes, and has turned Azerbaijan to an oil-rich country building artificial islands in the Caspian Sea and competing with the Gulf states in constructing aesthetic and tallest buildings. However, the new pipelines, while limiting Russian influence on Azerbaijan, and contributing to the country’s military might, has at the same time, increased Western interest in maintaining peace in the region and solving the dispute peacefully, to secure the billions of dollars in investment of oil transportation. August Mystery The sudden and random military clashes in late July and early August of 2014, the worst since the ceasefire in 1994, still remains a mystery. Both sides accused the other of breaching the ceasefire; and the gap between official number of casualties and unofficial reports remained wide. It has not been possible to verify the rumor that Azerbaijan recaptured a few small villages back from the Armenian occupation. The direct clashes between the armies ceased as the leaders of the two countries, Ilham Alivey, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and Serzh Sargsyan, the President of Armenia, came together in the coastal Russian city of Sochi under the auspices of Vladimir Putin on August 9. The August meetings under Russian supervision have become a routine since 2008, and can be considered as Russia’s attempt to maintain its say in the region. However, this time the meeting may not be a replication of the previous years. Increased international pressure on Russia, due to the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, and Azerbaijan’s increasing economic wealth and military might may give way to a new rapprochement between the two nations at the expense of Armenia. Indeed, the statements of the leaders after the meetings are supportive of this view. However, we will need more time to see if it is a planned step towards solving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. An Analysis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict – RAMIN AHMADOGHLU After our blog post celebrating the exchange students we were happy to host from the countries of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, and Armenia, we got some comments that our readers would like to know more about the conflicts that have torn these neighbors apart.
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१२ असोज २०७७, सोमवार विविसिवाट विश्वकै पुरानोमध्येको एक अर्मेनिया र अजरबैजानबीचको भौगलिक विवाद फेरि एकपटक एउटा उग्र युद्धका रूपमा विस्फोट भएको छ। त्यसका कारण कम्तीमा २३ जनाको ज्यान गएको छ। हेलिकप्टरहरू खसाइएको र ट्याङ्कहरू ध्वस्त गरिएको बताइएको छ। यी दुई पूर्व-सोभियत गणराज्यबीच विवादित नागोर्नो-क्याराबाख क्षेत्रमा लडाइ भएको हो। उक्त स्थान अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय रूपमा अजरबैजानको हिस्सा भनेर मान्यता दिइएको क्षेत्र हो। तर त्यहाँ अर्मेनियन जातीय पृथकतावादी समूहले कब्जा गरेका छन्। सन् १९९० दशकको सुरुवातमा उक्त क्षेत्र विभाजित हुँदा त्यहाँ भएको लडाइमा दशौँ हजार मानिसहरू मारिएका थिए। सोभियत शासनका बेला साम्यवादी व्यवस्था रहेकाले जातीय र धार्मिक मतभेदहरूलाई दबाइएको थियो। तर सोभियत सङ्घ टुक्रिएर ती दुई देशहरू स्वतन्त्र भएपछि त्यहाँ जातीय र धार्मिक मदभेदहरू विनाशकारी परिणामसाथ जीवित भएका हुन्। अजरबैजानका राष्ट्रपति इल्हाम अलियेफले आइतवार उक्त क्षेत्रलाई पुन: नियन्त्रणमा लिनेमा आफू विश्वस्त रहेको बताएका थिए। अजरबैजान र अर्मेनियाका केही क्षेत्र तथा नागोर्नो-क्याराबाखमा मार्शल ल भनिने सैन्य कानुन लागु गरिएको छ। कोकअसस् पहाडहरूमा रहेको द्वन्द विगत तीन दशकदेखि समाधान हुन सकेको छैन। त्यहाँ पटकपटक लडाइ हुने गरेको छ। गत जुलाईमा सीमा क्षेत्रमा भएको झडपमा कम्तिमा १६ जनाको ज्यान गएको थियो। त्यसले गर्दा उक्त क्षेत्रलाई फिर्ता ल्याउन माग गर्दै अजरबैजानको राजधानी बाकुमा वर्षौँपछि सबैभन्दा ठूलो प्रदर्शन निम्त्याएको थियो। दक्षिणी कोकअसस् क्यास्पियन सीबाट पाइपमार्फत् विश्व बजारमा तेल र ग्यास पठाउने एउटा प्रमुख करिडरमा पर्छ। त्यसैले त्यहाँ हुने कुनै पनि खालको अवरोधले विश्व बजारलाई प्रभावित पार्नसक्छ। टर्कीका राष्ट्रपति रेजेप्प तय्यिप एर्दोआनले नयाँ सङ्कटमा अजरबैजानलाई सहयोगको वाचा गरेका छन्। परम्परागत रूपमा अर्मेनियाको साथमा रहने गरेको देखिएको रुसले चाहिँ तत्कालै युद्धविराम गरेर वार्ता सुरु गरी अवस्था सामान्य बनाउन आग्रह गरेको छ। अर्मेनियनहरूको ठूलो समूह बसोबास गर्ने फ्रान्सले तत्कालै युद्धविराम गर्न आग्रह गरेको छ। अर्मेनिया र अजरबैजान दुवैसँग सीमा जोडिएको इरानले चाहिँ शान्तिवार्ताको मध्यस्थता गर्न तयार रहेको बताएको छ। अमेरिकाले दुवै पक्षसँग सम्पर्क गरको र तत्कालै अवस्था साम्य पार्न काम गर्न आग्रह गरेको जनाएको छ। कसरी सुरु भयो लडाइ? अर्मेनियका रक्षामन्त्रीले सुरुमा आइतवार बिहान नागोर्नो-क्याराबाख क्षेत्रमा रहेको नागरिक बस्तीमा आक्रमण भएको बताएका छन्। त्यहाँको क्षेत्रीय राजधानी स्टेपानाकेर्टमा पनि आक्रमण भएको उनको भनाइ छ। अधिकारीहरूका अनुसार एकजना महिला र बाक पनि मारिएका छन्। उक्त क्षेत्रको पृथकतावादी प्रशासनका अनुसार उसका १६ जना कर्मचारी मारिएका छन् भने एक सयजना घाइते भएका छन्। अर्मेनियाले दुईवटा हेलिकप्टर र तीनवटा ड्रोन खसालेको तथा तीनवटा सैन्य ट्याङ्कहरू नष्ट गरिदिएको बताएको छ। नागोर्नो-क्याराबाख प्रशासनले मार्शल ल लगाएको केही समयमै अर्मेनियाले पनि उस्तै सैन्य कानुन लागु गरेको जनाएको छ। अर्मेनियन प्रधानमन्त्री निकोल पाशिनियानले आफ्नो “मातृभूमि” रक्षा गर्न आह्वान गरेका छन् र उक्त हमलालाई अजरबैजानको “पूर्व योजना सहितको आक्रमण” भनेका छन्। उनले उक्त क्षेत्र ठूलो युद्धको खतरामा रहेको भन्दै टर्कीलाई “आक्रामक व्यवहार” देखाएको आरोप लगाएका छन्। पाशिनियानले अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय समुदायलाई थप अस्थिरताबाट बजाउन एक हुन पनि आग्रह गरेका छन्। अजरबैजानका अभियोजनकर्ताहरूका अनुसार एउटा गाउँमा अर्मेनियाको गोलाबारीका कारण एकै परिवारका पाँच जनाको ज्यान गएको छ। अजरबैजानको रक्षा मन्त्रालयले एउटा हेलिकप्टर खसेको पुष्टि गरेको छ तर त्यसका पाइलट भने बाँचेको जनाएको छ। त्यस्तै उसले अर्मेनियाका १२ वटा हवाई रक्षा प्रणाली नष्ट गरिदिएको जनाएको छ। उसले अर्मेनियाले भनेझैँ अन्य नोक्सानी नभएको बताएको छ। अजरबैजानका राष्ट्रपति इल्हाम अलियेफले अर्मेनियाको प्रतिउत्तर दिन ठूलो आक्रामक हमलाको आदेश दिएका छन्। एउटा टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा त्यस्तो जवाफी हमलाले कैयौँ अर्मेनियाको नियन्त्रणमा रहेको अजरबैजानी क्षेत्र स्वतन्त्र हुने उनले बताए। उनले जवाफी हमलापश्चात् “३० वर्ष लामो अन्याय र अवैध नियन्त्रणको अन्त्य हुनेछ” भनेका छन्। अर्मेनियाली सेनाको सुरुवाती अस्वीकारपछि नागोर्नो-क्याराबाखका मान्यता नदिइएका राष्ट्रपति आरायिक हारुचुनियानले अजरबैजानी सेनाले केही क्षेत्र गुमाएको पुष्टि गरेका छन्। पुरानो लडाइ सन् १९८० को अन्त्यतिर यी दुवै पक्षबीच लडाइ सुरु भएको थियो। सन् १९९१ मा सोभियत सङ्घ विघटन हुने बेला सम्ममा युद्ध निकै नै बढेको थियो। त्यसबेला करिब ३० हजार मानिसको ज्यान गएको थियो। हाल नागोर्नो-क्याराबाख क्षेत्रलाई अर्मेनियाको पृथकतावादी समूहले नियन्त्रणमा राखेको छ।