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Although Pakistan plays a major role in Afghanistan in practically all segments, yet Afghanistan would not like to be seen as a mere crony of Pakistan. On Sunday August 15 this year, the day on which India was celebrating the 75th anniversary of her independence from British rule, the Taliban militants took over control of Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, after a week of rapid territorial gains from retreating government forces that had been battling to hold off the Islamist militant group. SOVIET PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN Afghanistan, a landlocked, multi-ethnic country, located in the heart of South-Central Asia, borders six countries and is dominated by the imposing Hindu Kush mountains. It has a strategic location as the nation lies along important trade routes connecting Southern and Eastern Asia to Europe and the Middle East. Afghanistan has drawn traders and invaders for millennia and has long been a prize sought by empire builders and the military of major nations have attempted to subdue it. Afghanistan has thus always been a conflict ridden nation more so in the last four decades. In December 1979, the Soviet Union sent in more than hundred thousand troops into Afghanistan to keep the Mujahideen under check and took over total military and political control of Kabul and large parts of the country as well. Mujahideen is the plural form of Mujahid, an Arabic term that broadly refers to Islamic guerrillas who engage in jihad which is fight on behalf of Islam, Allah or the Islamic community. This action by the Soviet Union was in support of the Communist Government in Kabul that was engaged in a long drawn conflict with the anti-communist Muslim guerrillas and other insurgent groups that constituted the Mujahideen. After nearly a decade long presence in Afghanistan during which the Soviet forces lost some 15000 soldiers and as the Soviet Union was itself was on the verge of disintegration, it signed an accord with the United States (US), Pakistan and Afghanistan and opted to withdraw its forces from the country with the last soldier leaving Afghan soil on February 15, 1989. CREATION OF TALIBAN The word “Talib” in Pashto, the language of the Pathan community, means “Student” and its plural form is “Taliban” which means students. The origin of this name lies in the history of creation of this force. After the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan in February 1989, the Pakistan supported Mujahideen fighters led by Gulbudddin Hekmatyar, did not make much headway as they were neither organised nor formally trained or equipped well enough to take on the forces of the then Government in Kabul led by Dr Najibullah who was pro the Soviet Union and oust him from power. Although Pakistan has always been in the denial mode, all indications are that in the early 1990s, it did initiate the process of the creation of a new force that would be well organised, trained and equipped. This new force would complement and boost the guerrilla war launched by the Mujahideen against the pro-Soviet Union Government in Kabul. Overseen by Lt General Hamid Gul, a general in the Pakistan Army who was serving as the Chief of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the premier intelligence agency, the creation of this new force called the Taliban was initiated. It is thus not without reason that Lt General Hamd Gul is branded as “Father of the Taliban”. Around 5000 young boys from the 140 odd Afghan refugee camps located in Pakistan along the border with Afghanistan who were largely of Pashtun origin and were studying is traditional Islamic schools in Pakistan called Madrasas, were recruited and trained by the Pakistan Army and appropriately named as “Taliban”. For effective leadership of this newly trained force, the Pakistan Army even deputed its officers and JCOs, both serving and retired to be a part of this organisation. With large number of Pathans available in Pakistan as refugees as also those residing in the Southern and South Eastern regions of Afghanistan who were jobless and were quite willing to join the new force, its strength soon swelled to over 40,000. The Taliban then commenced their operations and captured the city of Kandahar on November 03, 1994. With the aim of establishing their rule over all of Afghanistan, in early 1995, the Taliban began their move Northwards with the ultimate aim of taking over control of Kabul. However, this first attempt by the Taliban at capturing Kabul ended up in a failure as they suffered a devastating defeat in the battle against the forces of the Islamic State of Afghanistan operating under the command of Ahmad Shah Massoud. A year and a half later, i.e. in September 1996, as the Taliban prepared to launch a massive attack on Kabul with a larger and better equipped force, Ahmad Shah Massoud opted to pull out from Kabul and retreated into the Panjsher Valley which was the safe haven for the Tajiks. Instead of engaging with the Taliban in battles in the streets of Kabul, Massoud opted to launch anti-Taliban operations in the North Eastern Hindu Kush mountains. The Taliban ruled over Afghanistan till they were removed from power by the US-led forces in 2001. Two decades later, the Taliban are back in power in Kabul. When viewed objectively, as India does not have land borders with Afghanistan, any military action by India in that country, is clearly not an option. AFGHANISTAN UNDER THE RULE OF THE TALIBAN An agreement was signed in Doha between the US and the Taliban on February 29, 2020, according to which, the majority of US troops were expected to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of August this year, leaving the nation in the hands of the Taliban. As the forces of the Taliban closed in on Kabul, President Ashraf Ghani flew out reportedly to UAE, leaving the country in a very difficult situation. He felt that that if he had remained in Kabul, he would have been hanged in public as was done by the Taliban in its earlier tenure with ex-President Dr Najibullah. The rapidity with which the Taliban advanced Northwards and swept into Kabul with hardly any resistance from the forces of the Government or from the population of Afghanistan, is a clear indication that the Taliban are likely to be more acceptable this time round by the majority in Afghanistan. On the international scene, the list of nations that are in support of the Taliban taking over power in Kabul are Pakistan, China and Iran. FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION BY INDIA The uncertainty with regard to the somewhat frightening security situation in Kabul post the Taliban 2.0 coming to power and apprehensions of widespread violence, has triggered a panicky reaction leading to rapid evacuation of not only the diplomatic staff of a number of countries including India, serving in the various embassies in Kabul, but also a large number of foreign citizens working in or present in Afghanistan at that time. The major dilemma that India now faces is to identify and follow the best course of action to minimise the adverse impact on the relationship with Afghanistan in the wake of the recent developments there. When viewed objectively, as India does not have land borders with Afghanistan, any military action by India in that country is clearly not an option. This leaves India with the options to take appropriate action limited to the political, diplomatic and economic fronts at which the current dispensation in India led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is quite competent. India has always had good relations with Afghanistan and there are good reasons why the new regime in Afghanistan would not like to change the status quo. In the recent years, India has invested as much as $9 billion in various infrastructure projects across Afghanistan and some of these projects are yet to be completed which should be an incentive for the new Taliban regime not to be antagonistic towards India. Besides, around 20,000 students from Afghanistan are currently studying in various universities across India. This is something that the Taliban government in Kabul would not like to disrupt. Although Pakistan plays a major role in Afghanistan in practically all segments, yet Afghanistan would not like to be seen as a mere crony of Pakistan. India therefore, needs to play her cards well, diplomatically, politically as well as on the economic front. However, India does not need to act in haste, but rather wait for the situation in Afghanistan to stabilise. Hopefully, under the new Taliban regime, Afghanistan should witness the emergence of a new dawn in not too distant a future. At this point in time it would be advisable for India to wait and watch.
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पूर्व अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति जर्ज डब्ल्यू बुशले अफगानिस्तानबाट नेटो सैनिक फिर्ता गर्ने निर्णय गलत रहेको बताएका छन्। उनले वर्तमान राष्ट्रपति जो बाइडेनले लिएको अफगान नीतिको पनि आलोचना गरेका छन्। अफगानिस्तानबाट अमेरिकी सैनिक फिर्ता बोलाएपछिको परिणाम अविश्वसनीय रुपमा खराब निस्कने उनले दाबी गरेका हुन्। बुशको टिप्पणी यस्तो बेलामा आएको छ, जतिखेर कट्टरपन्थी तालिबान अफगानिस्तानको राजधानी काबुलतर्फ अघि बढ्दैछ। स्थिति यस्तै रहे तालिबानले चाँदै अमेरिका समर्थित अफगानिस्तान सरकार विस्थापन गरिदिने उनले चिन्ता गरेका छन्। विदेशी सैनिक फिर्ता हुने घोषणा भएसँगै यतिखेर अफगानिस्तानमा तालिबान लगातार काबुलतर्फ अघि बढिरहेको छ। देशका कयौं जिल्ला तालिबानले कब्जामा लिइसकेको छ। छिमेकी देशको सीमामा रहेका चौकीहरू पनि तालिबानको कब्जामा छ। अफगान सरकार निरन्तर कमजोर भइरहेको बीबीसीमा उल्लेख छ। जर्ज डब्ल्यू बुशले जर्मनीको एक सञ्चारमाध्यमसँग भनेका छन्, 'अफगानिस्तानबाट आफ्ना सैनिक फिर्ता बोलाएर अमेरिकाले गल्ती गरेको मलाई लाग्छ। सैनिक बोलाएपछि अफगानिस्तानको अवस्था अविश्वसनीय रुपले खराब हुनेवाला छ।' बुश प्रशासनले सन् २००१ मा अफगानिस्तानविरुद्ध सैन्य अभियान शुरु गरेको थियो। सो अभियान मुख्यतः तालिबानको तानाशाहीविरुद्ध केन्द्रित थियो। अहिले अमेरिकी सैनिक अफगानिस्तानबाट फर्कन थालेको छ र त्यहाँ पुनः तालिबान जुर्मुराएको छ। बुशले मिडियासँगको कुराकानीमा अफगानिस्तानमा रहेका दोभाषेहरू र तिनका परिवारको निकै चिन्ता गरेका छन्, जसले २१ वर्षसम्म अमेरिका र नेटो सैनिकलाई प्रत्यक्ष सहयोग गरेका थिए। उनले भनेका छन्, 'यस्तो लाग्छ कि अमेरिकाले यतिखेर उनीहरूलाई त्यहाँ मर्नकै लागि छाडिदिएको छ। अबउप्रान्त उनीहरूलाई निर्दयी र नृशंस मानिसहरूबाट खतरा हुनेछ। उनीहरूबारे सम्झँदा मलाई निकै पीडा भैरहेको छ।' बाइडेन प्रशासनका एक वरिष्ठ अधिकारीले पनि तालिबानमा लगातार बिग्रँदै गरेको सुरक्षास्थितिप्रति चिन्ता व्यक्त गरेका छन्। किनकी, तालिबानले ८५ प्रतिशत भूभाग कब्जामा लिएको दाबी गरेको छ। मिडिया रिपोर्टहरूमा उल्लेख भएअनुसार तालिबानले गत एक साताभित्रै अफगानिस्तानको करिब १० प्रतिशत हिस्सा आफ्नो नियन्त्रणमा लिइसकेको छ। त्यहाँका ४०७ जिल्लामध्ये १९५ जिल्ला अहिले पूर्णतः तालिबानको कब्जामा छ। थप १२९ जिल्ला कब्जा गर्नेतर्फ तालिबान जुर्मुराइरहेको छ। यस्तो स्थिति निम्तिँदा पनि अफगानिस्तानबाट अमेरिकी सैनिक फिर्ता हुने गतिमा कुनै परिवर्तन देखिएको छैन। अमेरिकी प्रशासनका अनुसार सोमबार पनि अमेरिकी सैनिकको एक ठूलो जत्था अफगानिस्तानबाट फर्किएको छ। अमेरिकाले यसअघि नै अगष्ट ३१ सम्ममा अफगानिस्तानबाट आफ्ना सबै सैनिक फिर्ता लैजाने जनाएको थियो। अघिल्लो बिहीबार सेप्टेम्बर ११ को हमलाको स्मरण दिवसका दिन पनि अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति बाइडेनले अफगान सैन्य अभियान पूर्णतः समाप्त गर्ने बताएका थिए। यसअघि एक भाषणमा बाइडेनले तालिबानले पूरै अफगानिस्तान कब्जा गर्ने र सरकार चलाउने सम्भावना निकै कम भएको दाबी गरेका थिए। ७५ हजार तालिबान लडाकुले तीन लाख अफगान सेनालाई हराउन नसक्ने उनले तर्क गरेका थिए। बाइडेनले भनेका थिए, 'अफगानिस्तानको रक्षा गर्ने जिम्मेवारी अफगान प्रशासन र त्यहाँको सुरक्षा बलको हो। सवाल यो हो कि उनीहरूले यस्तो हिम्मत गर्न सक्छन् कि सक्दैनन्। अफगानिस्तानको भविष्य अब के हुन्छ भन्नेबारे अफगानिस्तानका नागरिकले नै राम्ररी निर्णय लिन सक्छन्।' पूर्व राष्ट्रपति बुशले अफगानिस्तान अभियान क्रममा अमेरिकालाई सहयोग गरेका दोभाषेलाई सुरक्षा प्रदान गर्न बाइडेन प्रशासन चुकेको र अब उनीहरूलाई विशेष प्रवेशाज्ञा कार्यक्रम ल्याउनुपर्ने बताएका छन्। बाइडेनले भने अमेरिकालाई सहयोग गरेका दोभाषेमध्ये आधाजतिले मात्रै देश छाड्न चाहेको दाबी गरेका छन्। तर, ती अफगानी नागरिकलाई अस्थायी रुपमा कहाँ स्थानान्तरण गरिने भन्ने टुङगो लागेको छैन। अप्रिलमा अफगानिस्तान अमेरिकी सैन्य अभियान समाप्त गर्ने घोषणा गर्दैगर्दा बाइडेनले यसबारे पूर्व राष्ट्रपतिहरू बाराक ओबामा र जर्ज डब्ल्यू बुशसँग कुराकानी गरेको बताएका थिए। त्यतिखेर पूर्व राष्ट्रपति ओबामाले बाइडेनको निर्णय सही भएको ठहर गरेका थिए। निवर्तमान राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रम्पले पनि अफगानिस्तानबाट अमेरिकी सैनिक फिर्ती गर्न निर्णय एक सकारात्मक कदम भएको दाबी गरेका थिए। तर, बुशले भने यसबारे कुनै आलोचनात्मक टिप्पणी गरेका थिएनन्। जानकारहरूका अनुसार सत्ता छाडेपछि आफ्ना उत्तराधिकारीको कामप्रति टिप्पणी नगर्ने कदमलाई उनले पालना गरेका थिए। केहीअघि उनले अमेरिकी न्यूज च्यानललाई दिएको अन्तर्वार्तामा बुशले तालिबानको पुनःउदयपछि अफगान महिला र किशोरीहरूले सबैभन्दा धेरै दुःख पाउने बताएका थिए। अघिल्लो समाचार पछिल्लो समाचार