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https___www.abcnepal.tv_posts_61499_1.xml
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By Mark Tokola There were startling headlines on March 6 that North Korea is prepared to enter into talks, to freeze its nuclear and missile testing, and is willing to abandon its nuclear weapons. This would be welcome news, but of course there are caveats and questions. The first caveat is that this is North Korea’s new position as described by the South Korean delegation following talks in Pyongyang on March 5. There is no reason to doubt the accuracy of the South Korean account of the talks, but it would be reassuring to hear the change of heart from North Korea directly. The three main elements of the new North Korean position are reported to be: (1) North Korea is prepared to suspend nuclear and missile testing while prospective talks with the United States are ongoing; (2) North Korea sees no need to have nuclear weapons if the “military threat to North Korea is eliminated and its security guaranteed”; and (3) Kim Jong-un has offered a summit meeting with South Korea President Moon Jae-in in April at Panmunjom, in the DMZ. The North Korean government has a record of backtracking on its offers and adding new conditions, so it may take a while to see how it will elaborate on the three elements. An early question will be whether it will expect that U.S.-ROK joint military exercises, scheduled for April, to be modified. If it does not — and there is some reporting that Kim Jong-un told the South Korean delegation that he understands that the April exercises will take place as scheduled — that would be an encouraging sign that Kim Jong-un actually intends to negotiate. Washington and Seoul, for their part, may want to consider how to shape the exercises. Planning and preparations are well underway for the April exercises, but there is some latitude to shape their public messaging. On the second element, what North Korea would consider the elimination of the “military threat” to North Korea and what would constitute a “security guarantee,” are open to wide interpretation. At one end of the spectrum would be their acceptance of a statement by the United States that it has no intention of attacking North Korea. At the other end would be a demand that U.S. forces leave the Korean Peninsula and that the U.S.-ROK military alliance be scrapped. North Korea may want assurances that its security is not threatened while maintaining its ability to threaten others, with conventional if not nuclear weapons. A North Korean freeze on nuclear and missiles testing would be a positive development. They have not tested since November and that has eased tensions. A testing freeze would also be relatively verifiable. Missile launches and nuclear detonations are difficult to hide. However, it would be a long road from a freeze to denuclearization, which would require an intrusive inspection regime. The U.S. and South Korean (and Chinese and Russian and United Nations) position that denuclearization must be “complete, verifiable, and irreversible,” could only be met by the outcome of complex and probably difficult negotiations. Even a suspension of the production of nuclear material would not be sufficient because North Korea probably has produced enough, and hidden it, that it would require an enormous efforts to have confidence that it had actually “denuclearized.” It does feel like a concession on Kim Jong-un’s part that he is offering to hold the inter-Korean summit at Panmunjom rather than Pyongyang. Another test of his sincerity is whether he will expect “payment” in exchange for holding the summit, either through economic assistance, an easing of sanctions, or a suspension of U.S.-ROK military exercises. An unconditional summit could lead to positive outcomes: an agreement on family reunions, humanitarian and medical assistance to North Korea that North Korea would allow to be monitored to ensure it serves its intended recipients, or cultural exchanges that might ease tensions without providing North Korean economic gains. Has there been a breakthrough? It is too soon to tell, but it certainly needs to be tested. It is prudent to remain skeptical and too soon to make any concessions to North Korea before it makes any concrete steps towards denuclearization. It seems most likely that North Korea may be trying to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul by trying to lure South Korea into weakening the alliance. Or, North Korea may be making a sham offer with the intent of being able to blame the United States and South Korea when the diplomatic moves collapse. This could be a way of lessening pressure from Beijing. However, the possibility should be considered that this is an early sign of what success might look like. The goal of the United States and South Korea has been to pressure North Korean into negotiations leading to denuclearization. If maximum pressure and isolation were to work, wouldn’t it lead to something like the March 5 headlines? Mark Tokola is the Vice President of the Korea Economic Institute of America. The views expressed here are his own. Photo from Clay Gilliland’s photostream on flickr Creative Commons.
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सिओल, ७ असोज । दक्षिण कोरियाका राष्ट्रपति मून जाए–इन अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रम्पसँग भेटघाट गर्न आइतबार संयुक्तराज्य अमेरिका प्रस्थान गर्दै हुनुहुन्छ । उहाँले अमेरिका र उत्तर कोरियाबीच दोस्रो शिखर बैठक गराउन पहल गर्ने अपेक्षा गरिएको छ । उत्तर कोरियाली नेता कीम जोङ–अनसँग गतसाता तेस्रो द्विपक्षीय शिखर बैठक गरेलगत्तै राष्ट्रपति मूनले अमेरिका भ्रमण गर्न लाग्नुभएको हो । साथै, अमेरिकामा रहँदा राष्ट्रपति मूनले संयुक्त राष्ट्रसङ्घको महासभालाई सम्बोधन गर्दै विश्व समुदायसमक्ष अन्तर–कोरियाली शिखर बैठकका परिणामहरु जानकारी गराउनुहुनेछ । “राष्ट्रपति मूनले तेस्रो अन्तर–कोरियाली शिखर बैठकका बारेमा विस्तृत रुपमा अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति र विश्व समुदायलाई जानकारी गराउनु हुनेछ,” राष्ट्रपतिको सुरक्षा कार्यालयका वरिष्ट निर्देशक नाम ग्वान–प्योले बताउनुभयो । मूनले उत्तर कोरिया र अमेरिकाबीच हाल स्थगित वार्ता पुनः शुरु गराउन अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपतिसँग विस्तृत रुपमा छलफल गर्ने कार्यक्रम रहेको पनि नामले बताउनुभयो । उत्तर कोरियाले व्यक्त गरेका प्रतिबद्धता बमोजिम आणविक निःशस्त्रीकरणका कार्यहरु नभएको भन्दै असन्तुष्टी जनाएको संयुक्तराज्य अमेरिकाले पछिल्ला दिनहरुमा राजनीतिक भेटघाट स्थगित गरेको छ । राष्ट्रपति ट्रम्पले विदेशमन्त्री माइक पोम्पेओको पूर्व निर्धारित उत्तर कोरिया भ्रमण समेत अन्तिम समयमा स्थगित गरिदिनुभएको थियो । तर मून र कीमले जारी गर्नुभएको संयुक्त वक्तव्यमा उत्तर कोरियाले डोङचाङ–रीस्थित क्षेप्यास्त्र परीक्षण केन्द्र र प्रहार केन्द्रहरु बन्द गर्ने सहमति जनाएको छ । यही केन्द्रबाट लामो दूरीका क्षेप्यास्त्र प्रहार गर्न सकिने र ती क्षेप्यास्त्रमा अमेरिकासम्म प्रहार गर्न सक्ने क्षमता रहेको बताइन्छ । अमेरिकाले सकारात्मक धारणा अघि सारे उत्तर कोरियाले योङब्योनमा रहेको मुख्य आणविक केन्द्रलाई बन्द गर्ने पनि प्रतिबद्धता जनाएको छ । मूनले उत्तर कोरियाली नेता कीमलाई यसै वर्षभित्र सिओल भ्रमण गर्न आमन्त्रण गर्नुभएको छ ।