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Healy-Rae(s) holds the sway in Kerry in new TG4 Election Poll A new opinion poll carried out for TG4 shows that the Independent candidate Michael Healy-Rae is in a commanding lead in the new 5 seat Kerry constituency and may well have enough surplus votes to ensure the election also of his brother Danny to Dáil Éireann. Full details of the TG4 Ipsos MRBI opinion poll on Kerry voters’ intentions was commissioned for the channel’s Vóta 2016 programme and were broadcast this evening on TG4 at 7pm. Kerry Constituency Party Support (Number 1 Preference Vote) Kerry Constituency Individual Candidate Support (Number 1 Preference Vote) Commentary: For this election, the previous Kerry two three-seat constituencies have been merged into a five-seater. The main finding in this poll is that the merged constituency has hardly dented Michael Healy-Rae’s support and he has a massive 33% share of voter support throughout the county. Some distance behind comes the chasing pack of larger party candidates, led by Jimmy Deenihan (FG 13%) and Brendan Griffin (FG 13%). John Brassil (FF) is on 11%, Arthur Spring (Lab) is on 8%, and Martin Ferris (SF) has 7%. With the first seat going to Michael Healy-Rae, his very significant transfers will put his brother Danny in the running for a seat despite his attracting only 4% of first-preference votes in this poll. It is worth noting that Danny Healy-Rae only declared his candidature on the morning the poll was conducted. As things stand, six candidates are potentially chasing the remaining four seats. As with last week’s TG4/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll in Donegal, it is clear that the last seat will be hotly contested. FG are certain to get a seat and probably two. The party has 27% of the Kerry vote, just slightly shy of two quotas. Labour’s Arthur Spring seems to be transferring in reasonable numbers to FG and should he be eliminated, his transfers could provide the votes needed for a second FG seat. It is also possible that some Micheal-Healy Rae transfers will go to FG and get them a second seat. John Brassill (11%) is in contention to win a seat for Fianna Fáil, with the help of transfers from party colleague Norma Moriarty ( 6%). While his five-point lead over her makes it likely that he will be the FF candidate left standing, it is not at all certain that Moriarty’s transfers will be enough to get FF a seat as many of her transfers will go to Michael Healy-Rae. While his first preference vote is low, Danny Healy-Rae will be competing strongly for the last seat as his brother has a quota to spare. This may well him up the list (and probably ahead of Spring and Ferris). Arthur Spring of Labour, on 8%, is still some way off a quota, as too is Martin Ferris, on 7%. On the basis of these poll findings, Spring and Ferris may lose out to Danny Healy-Rae but there is the margin of error for all such polls to consider and the fact that there is time still left for campaigning. In addition to asking about their voting intentions, sought to find out from Kerry voters what importance they attached to a supplied list of national issues. Health, Jobs and Crime featured at the top of the list with Broadband and Emigration also prominent in the findings (details below). Note to Editors: This is the second of TG4’s three constituency opinion polls in key constituencies along the west coast. Next week’s Vóta 2016 (7pm Tues 23 February) will report the Ipsos MRBI opinion poll being carried out in the Galway West constituency. Vóta 2016 Kerry correspondent, Seán Mac a tSíthigh a is available for interview on the findings of this Kerry opinion poll on 087-7737673. Contact: Linda Ní Ghríofa 091 505228 linda.ni.ghriofa@tg4.ie (Note on Survey Methodology: This survey was conducted in the Donegal constituency on behalf of TG4 by Ipsos MRBI. among a sample of 500 adults aged 18 upwards. Interviewing took place on Thursday 4th and Friday 5th February. The survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by The Marketing Society of Ireland and by ESOMAR. Interviews were conducted via CATI [Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing]. Respondents were selected from a database of both landline and mobile numbers created via Random Digit Dialling. A survey sample of 500 attaches a margin of error of up to plus or minus 4 percentage points). Ipsos MRBI Findings on Issues of concern to voters in Kerry In addition to their voting intentions, Kerry voters were also asked about the importance they attached to a supplied list of national issues. List of Issues: Question: Could you tell me whether these issues are very important, somewhat important or not at all important to you? Responses: “Very important” Health services – 87% (92% of women) Jobs and employment – 84% (88% for 35-44 years) Crime – 64% (75% for 65+ years) Broadband availability – 63% (69% for 35-54 years) Taxation – 60% (68% for 45-54 years) Broadband Question: To what extent are you satisfied with the standard of broadband service in your area? Dissatisfied – 39% Very dissatisfied – 25% Emigration Question: Many people were forced to emigrate during the recession, do you think the economic conditions in Kerry have recovered enough for them to now return home? Yes – 11% (20% of 18-34 years) No – 87% Crime Question: Has your local area experienced changes in garda presence over the past few years, such as the closure of garda stations or a reduction in opening hours? If so have these changes had an impact on the safety of your local area? 64% responded that there had been a reduction in their area in recent years 75% of those who had experienced a reduction said it had had a negative effect on security (86% for those in the 45-54 years age group)
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An Svae ag caipíní Healy-Rae i gCiarraí dar le Pobalbhreith nua Olltoghcháin Tá an-seans ag Michael Healy-Rae a dheartháir Danny a thabhairt ar ais chun na Dála nua leis mar Theachta, de réir na dtorthaí ó phobalbhreith nua a choimisiúnaigh agus a chraol an clár Vóta 2016 ar TG4 tráthnóna. Tugann an pobalbhreith údarásach seo, a rinne an comhlacht aitheanta Ipsos MRBI, le fios go bhfuil beagnach 40% de vótóirí an chontae ag tacú le deartháireacha na gcaipíní agus go bhfuil dhá chuóta ag Michael leis féin. Fágfaidh sin iarrthóirí aitheanta ó na mór-pháirtithe faoi bhrú damanta agus iad ar thóir suíochán Dála. Tacaíocht na bPáirtithe i nDáilcheantar Chiarraí (Vóta Uimhir 1) Tacaíocht na nIarrthóirí (Vóta Uimhir 1) Tráchtaireacht; Is Dáilcheantar nua é seo, 5 shuíochán agus is léir nach bhfuil an cónascadh tar éis aon dochar a dhéanamh do thacaíocht láidir theaghlach Healy-Rae. Tá scair 33% de na vótóirí ag tacú le Michael agus 4% lena dheartháir Danny (a d’fhógair go raibh sé ag seasamh mar iarrthóir an lá gur thosaigh an suirbhé seo). Tá iarrthóirí na mór-pháirithe go maith chun deiridh ar Mhicheal Healy-Rae – Jimmy Deenihan (FG 13%) agus Brendan Griffin (FG 13%), John Brassil (FF) ar 11%, Arthur Spring (LO) ar 8% agus Martin Ferris (SF) ar 7%. Toghfar Michael Healy-Rae ar an gcéad chomhaireamh agus cuirfidh an fuílleach vótaí atá aige a dheartháir Danny ard go maith ar a liosta ina dhiaidh sin, cé nach bhfuil ag Danny ach tacaíocht 4% sa suirbhé seo. Fágann sin go mbeidh seisear iarrthóirí i ndian-iomaíocht don cheithre shuíochán eile. Beidh suíochán amháin ag FG agus seans maith aige ar an dara ceann mar go bhfuil an páirtí gar go maith don dá chuóta agus beidh vótaí aistrithe ar fáil dó ó Arthur Spring an Lucht Oibre má cuirtear fear Thrá Lí as an iomaíocht. Go deimhin b’fhéidir go rachadh roinnt vótaí ó Mhicheal-Healy Rae chun tairbhe do FG freisin sa gcomhaireamh do na suíocháin sin. Beidh John Brassill (FF 11%) gar go maith do shuíochán mar go bhfuil sé cuid mhaith chun tosaigh ar a chomhghleacaí Norma Moriarty (6%) cé go bhféadfadh cuid dá vótaí siúd dul chuig Healy-Rae freisin. Gheobhaidh Danny Healy-Rae go leor vótaí aistrithe óna dheartháir agus má chuireann seo chun tosaigh é ar Spring agus Ferris, d’fhéadfadh duine acu sin (nó an bheirt acu) a bheith i dtrioblóid. Tá obair go leor le déanamh fós, neart ama roimh lá na vótála agus an lámháil earráide le meabhrú freisin. Sa mbreis ar cheisteanna faoina vótaí, chuir Ipsos MRBI ceist ar na vótóirí i gCiarraí faoi na nithe is mó atá ag déanamh buartha dóibh. Léirigh na freagraí go bhfuil Cúrsaí Sláinte, Fostaíocht, Coiriúlacht, Imirce agus Leathanbhanda ar na ceisteanna is práinní do phobal Chiarraí. (Sonraí ar an leathanach thíos). Nóta d’eagarthóirí: Is é seo an dara ceann de shraith 3 phobalbhreith atá coimisiúnaithe ag TG4 do Dháilcheantair ar chósta an Iarthair. An tseachtain seo chugainn ar Vóta 2016 ( 7pm Máirt 23 Feabhra) craolfar na torthaí phobalbhreith nua MRBI ar Dháilcheantar na Gaillimhe Thiar). Tá Seán Mac a’ tSíthigh, comhfhreagraí Vóta 2016 i gCiarraí, ar fáil d’agallaimh ar an bpobalbhreith nua seo sa Dáilcheantar ar 087-7737673. Teagmháil: Linda Ní Ghríofa 091 505228 linda.ni.ghriofa@tg4.ie (Nóta ar mhodheolaíocht na phobailbhreithe: Sampla 500 duine (18+ bliain) a bhí ag an bpobalbhreith seo a rinne an comhlacht Ipsos MRBI do TG4. Rinneadh na hagallaimh Déardaoin 11 agus Aoine 12 Feabhra i suirbhé atá de réir na dtreoirlínte atá leagtha síos ag an Marketing Society of Ireland agus ESOMAR. Rinneadh na hagallaimh le CATI [Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing]. Roghnaíodh na rannpháirithe ó bhunachar sonraí comhdhéanta d’uimhreacha talún agus soghluaiste, bunachar a cruthaíodh le Diallú Randamach Digiteach (Random Digit Dialling). Bíonn lámháil earráide móide/lúide 4% i gceiste le suirbhí bunaithe ar shampla 500 duines). Ábhair Buartha do Vótóirí Chiarraí Agus an suirbhé ar bun, ceistíodh vótóirí Chiarraí faoi liosta nithe a tugadh dóibh – ábhair atá luaite sa bhfeachtas náisiúnta Olltoghcháin. Léadh ráiteas agus ceist ina dhiaidh amach dóibh: List of Issues: Ceist: Ón liosta ábhar seo, an dtig leat a rá liom an bhfuil siad tábhachtach, cineál tábhachtach nó an-tábhactach duit? Mórcheisteanna – % a d’fhreagair ‘an-tábhachtach’ Seirbhísí Sláinte – 87% (92% de mhná) Fostaíocht/Postanna – 84% (88% for 35-44 bl.) Coiriúlacht – 64% (75% for 65+ bl.) Leathanbhanda – 63% (69% for 35-54 bl.) Cánachas – 60% (68% for 45-54 bl.) Cúrsaí leathanbhanda Ceist: An bhfuil tú sásta leis an gcaighdeán leathanbhanda i do cheantar? Míshásta – 39% (50% den aoisghrúpa 45-54 bl.) An-mhíshásta – 25% (33% den aoisghrúpa 45-54 bl.) Cúrsaí imirce Ceist: B’éigin do mhórán dul ar imirce nuair a tharla an cúlú eacnamaíochta. An bhfuil an staid eacnamaíoch i gCiarraí tagtha chucu féin, dar leat, le gur féidir leo sin filleadh abhaile? Tá – 11% (20% den aoisghrúpa 18-34 bl.) Níl – 87% (92% den aoisghrúpa 35-54 bl) Coiriúlacht Ceist: Ar athraigh láithreacht na nGardaí i do cheantar le cúpla bliain anuas agus má d’athraigh, ar chuir sin isteach ar chúrsaí slándála agus sábháilteachta i do cheantar? Dúirt 64% go raibh laghdú sa tseirbhís ina gceantar féin le cúpla bliain anuas. Dúirt 75% go raibh drochthionchar ag an laghdú seo ar chúrsaí sábháilteachta (bunaithe ar dhaoine ag rá go raibh laghduithe ann) - 39% den aoisghrúpa 18-24 bl. - 86% den aoisghrúpa 45-54 bl.