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On 6th May, 2014, Chinese E-commerce heavyweight Alibaba filed registration document to go to public in the US in what maybe the mother of all Initial Public Offerings in the US history. Alibaba is a fairly unknown entity in the US and other regions, though its massive size is comparable or even bigger than Amazon or eBay. Reading through Alibaba’s S-1 Filing was very interesting, educating and makes me realize how big their business is and how complex is the Chinese Internet Web. You may download the complete Alibaba Financial Model here. In this article, I address everything that you need to know about Alibaba IPO. - What is Alibaba? - What is Alibaba’s Business Model? - Why this name – Alibaba? - How does it compare to big-name Internet companies? - Why Alibaba IPO is so important? - Will this become the biggest IPO in US history? - Why going public in US, not in China or HK? - Who are the Investors in Alibaba? – Windfall gains for Softbank and Yahoo - Alibaba’s 5 mind -boggling numbers from the F-1 Registration document? - Alibaba IPO Financial Model in Excel - Alibaba IPO – $ 191 billion valuation? #1 – What is Alibaba? Alibaba is the most profitable Chinese e-commerce company. Alibaba handled transactions worth more than $248 billion last year, more than Amazon and eBay combined. Alibaba has 231 million active buyers and 8 million active sellers. - Alibaba founded in 1998-99 by an English Teacher Jack Ma, is headquartered in Hangzhou, China. - Alibaba mainly consists of two big shopping websites: 1) Taobao, a consumer-to-consumer marketplace launched to compete with eBay in China, and 2) Taobao Mall (or Tmall), an Amazon-like market that allows Chinese consumers to purchase directly from brands. - Along with Juhuasuan, a Groupon-like group-buying marketplace, those sites make up more than 80 percent of Alibaba’s revenue. - Another point to note is the China’s online shopping market size was $295 billion in 2013 and Alibaba controlled 80% of this pie (awesome!) - With China’s online shopping market size estimated to multiply 2.5 times to $713 billion by 2017 (source: iResearch), Alibaba’s size can only grow from here. #2 – What is Alibaba’s Business Model? In order to understand Alibaba’s Business Model, we can have a look at the below chart that depicts the network of entities that Alibaba operates. Also, you will note how the buying and selling of goods is done through Alibaba’s network for Business to Business (B2B) or Business to Customers (B2C) models. Alibaba’s Business Model source – Alibaba IPO Prospectus Buyers - Chinese consumers buy on Taobao Marketplace, Tmall and Juhuasuan - While browsing or searching on Taobao Marketplace, consumers see product listings from both Taobao Marketplace and Tmall - Global consumers buy on AliExpress - Global wholesalers buy on Alibaba.com Retail sellers - Small sellers in China sell on Taobao Marketplace and AliExpress - Chinese brands sell on Taobao Marketplace, Tmall, Juhuasuan and AliExpress and global brands sell on Tmall Global - Sellers source products on 1688.com Wholesale sellers - Chinese wholesalers and manufacturers supply retail merchants in China on 1688.com and global wholesale buyers on Alibaba.com - Chinese wholesalers and manufacturers supply directly to global consumers on AliExpress - Global wholesalers and manufacturers supply global wholesale buyers on Alibaba.com # 3 – Why this name – Alibaba? Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba, wanted a name which would be easy for anyone, even non-Chinese, to say. According to an interview he gave in 2006 with CNN’s Talk Asia program, Ma was in a San Francisco coffee shop when he came up with the name. Below is the excerpt of his interview One day I was in San Francisco in a coffee shop, and I was thinking Alibaba is a good name. And then a waitress came, and I said do you know about Alibaba? And she said yes. I said what do you know about Alibaba, and she said ‘Open Sesame.’ And I said yes, this is the name! Then I went onto the street and found 30 people and asked them, ‘Do you know Alilbaba’? People from India, people from Germany, people from Tokyo and China… They all knew about Alibaba. Alibaba — open sesame. Alibaba — 40 thieves. Alibaba is not a thief. Alibaba is a kind, smart business person, and he helped the village. So…easy to spell, and global know. Alibaba opens sesame for small- to medium-sized companies. We also registered the name AliMama, in case someone wants to marry us! #4 – How does Alibaba compare to big-name Internet companies? Finding a true business comparable to Alibaba is impossible! Alibaba is a mix of marketplace, search engine, bank, software company, mobile services company, elearning, microblogging, video streaming and much more. Below is an interesting chart that compares Alibaba’s portfolio with its respective known comparable. source: qz.com Let us now compare some of the key financials of Alibaba with the biggies like Amazon,eBay and Google. Alibaba’s Gross Merchandise Value of $248 billion dollars is more than Amazon and eBay combined. Alibaba Revenue is lower than that of Amazon and eBay. The primary reason is the business model, Alibaba makes money by charging merchants for advertisement on their website and transaction fees. While Alibaba’s revenue is less that Amazon and eBay, however, Alibaba is highly profitable company as compared to Amazon or eBay. Alibaba’s net profit margin at 40% is way higher than that of eBay, Amazon or Google. #5 – Why Alibaba IPO is so important? Alibaba IPO is a big deal primarily because of the size of the IPO. As discussed later in the article, my valuation estimates for Alibaba is around $191 billion. Download Alibaba IPO Valuation Model here Also, Alibaba IPO signifies global changes. With its huge size and network, Alibaba IPO may look at international expansion beyond China and may lead to price wars and intensive competition in the US. According to Reuters, Alibaba has closely guarded its ambitions for the United States and executives have privately played down suggestions it would take Amazon head-on. But there’s little question that investments in the United States are a high priority, people familiar with the company say. #6 – Will this become the biggest IPO in US history? The exact size of Alibaba IPO has been closely guarded. The company has used a $1 billion placeholder for its registration documentation with the SEC. Many expect that the size of Alibaba IPO could be between $15 billion – $20 billion. Below chart shows a quick comparison of Alibaba with the Tech IPOs in US. #7 – Why going public in US, not in China or HK? Alibaba initially approached the Hong Kong Exchange for listing, however, they had to abandon their plans of listing in HK due to is share structure. - A key governance principle of Hong Kong’s listing rules is a restriction on dual-class share structures or other schemes that allow controlling shareholders or managers to possess disproportionate voting power. - Alibaba wanted to list in Hong Kong, however, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing or the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) rejected Alibaba’s demand that its partners be able to nominate a majority of the company’s board. - Alibaba argued for an exception for its structure citing its unique business model. Hong Kong Exchange could have granted this exception as the rule book does have a provision, however, they decided against it. - The main reason was that there are many Chinese state owned enterprises listed in Hong Kong Exchange and if it bends a rule for Alibaba, then it’s going to have to bend rule for all of these state owned Chinese enterprises. - Alibaba then decided to list the company in US as such dual structures are not prohibited in US exchanges. #8 – Who are the Investors in Alibaba? From Alibaba’s registration document, it is learnt that SoftBank corp is the biggest investor in Alibaba with its initial investment of $20 million in 2000. SoftBank is the biggest gainer from their investments in Alibaba. Below chart shows the stake and its respective value. (assuming that my estimates of $191 billion valuation holds true ) #9 – Alibaba’s 5 Big Numbers to Know from F-1 Filing - $5.8 billion - Alibaba processed $5.8 billion USD in transactions and 254 million orders on Singles Day 2013 (China’s equivalent of Cyber Monday). - $248 billion - This is the Alibaba’s total Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on China’s retail marketplaces, more than Amazon and eBay combined. - 5 Billion Packages – Alibaba’s logistics network delivered approximately five billion packages generated from Alibaba-owned marketplaces in 2013. - 31 million orders per day! - Alibaba sees an average of 11.3 billion orders annually with 231 million active buyers. This is approximately 31 million orders per day and 49 average annual orders per active customer. - 136 million – Alibaba has 136 million monthly active users (December, 2013), representing US$37 billion in Mobile Gross Merchandise Value # 10 – Alibaba’s Financial Model After struggling for more than 3 days to prepare Alibaba’s Financial model, I was able to get a basic model ready (with the limited information provided in the S-1 Filing). I wish there was more information about revenue segments and costs details, yet this model serves as good head’s up for understanding Alibaba Group and Alibaba IPO Valuation. You may download Alibaba Financial Model here Alibaba Financial Model Assumptions - March’14 income statement figures include the estimate numbers of Jan’14-March’14 quarter - I have only adjusted the Cash and Cash Equivalents and Shareholder’s equity to reflect the estimated numbers. Other BS items are kept as reported in December quarter. - Projected the next 8 years of Alibaba’s Financial Statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flows) - The currency used in the model is RMB (China’s local currency). One can use the currency conversion to derive an appropriate valuation figures. F-1 filing has used 1 US$ = RMB 6.2164. Below are the findings from the Excel based Financial Model 1) Revenues to grow at a CAGR of approx 26% in the next 5 years and touch US$29 billion by March’2019. 2) China Commerce will remain the largest contributor to the Revenues. 3) Net Income close to US$1.2 billion by the end of March’2019. 4) Cash and Cash Equivalents will balloon to $50 billion in the next 5 years. How will they deploy this much of cash is an important thing to watch out for. 5) The company has remained EBITDA positive and will generate $1.75 billion EBITDA by March’19. #11 – Alibaba IPO – To Buy or NOT to Buy? Bloomberg polled 12 analyst to understand Alibaba’s valuations and found that it is closer to $168 billion, while some expect the valuation to cross $250 billion once it starts trading. There is a large variation in valuation estimates, so I decided to come with my own guidelines on Alibaba valuations. Download Alibaba Valuation Model here So, how do we value Alibaba IPO? - Alibaba is cash flow positive and is a profitable company. The most suitable approach that can be used to value Alibaba is the Discounted Cash Flow approach. - I am specifically avoiding the comparable valuations (relative valuations of Alibaba) due to the fact that it is nearly impossible to pin down a set of companies that are true comparable to Alibaba. - Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach requires forecasting and modeling future financials. Forecasting Alibaba’s Free Cash Flow (FCFF) Alibaba will generate $1.2 billion of free cash flows in March’19. As we note below that Alibaba will generate a predictable positive Free Cash Flows. Below is the table that summarizes Alibaba’s DCF Valuation output. We note the following from the table above – - Alibaba valuation is $191.5 billion (WACC of 9% and perpetuity growth of 3% ) - Short Term Investments, restricted cash and Investment securities taken at Cost (Balance Sheet Amount) - Investments in Equity Investees are also valued at Cost (balance sheet amount). Though the two companies Weibo and AutoNavi are publicly traded, i have yet taken them at Cost and NOT at their trading prices. - I have also assumed average Alipays valuation payout of $4 billion (floor of $2 billion and cap of $6 billion). Below is the excerpt from the Alibaba’s F-1 Filing Upon the occurrence of certain liquidity events with respect to Alipay (which includes, subject to certain conditions, an initial public offering of Alipay, a transfer of 37.5% or more of the equity interests of Alipay or a sale of all or substantially all of the assets of Alipay), Small and Micro Financial Services Company will pay to us an amount equal to 37.5% of the equity value of Alipay achieved in such liquidity event, with a minimum payment of US$2.0 billion and a maximum payment of US$6.0 billion, subject to certain increases and additional payments if no liquidity event has occurred by the sixth anniversary of the date of the original agreement, or the liquidity event payment. Alibaba DCF Valuation Sensitivity Analysis - As noted above, the minimum valuation of Alibaba is $123 billion (WACC of 11% and Growth of 6%) - If you are using different assumptions, you may use the above table for your set of valuation guidance. Other posts that you will love - Box IPO Valuation – To Buy or NOT to Buy? - Top 10 scariest details of Box IPO - Enterprise Value vs Equity Value What Next? Anything I missed? What are your views of valuations? Are you investing in Alibaba? Let me know what you think, your feedback by Leaving a Comment – I do not represent any brokerage firm. The above views are my assessment of Alibaba IPO. I have tried my best to ensure factual accuracy of the analysis, however, please feel free to provide me with corrective measures if you spot any errors.
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Ar an 6 Bealtaine, 2014, Sínis E-thráchtáil trom Alibaba comhdaithe registration document to go to public in the US in what maybe the máthair gach tairiscintí poiblí tosaigh i stair Poist. Is alibaba aonán cothrom anaithnid sna Stáit Aontaithe agus réigiúin eile, cé go bhfuil a mhéid ollmhór inchomparáide nó fiú níos mó ná Amazon nó eBay. Léitheoireacht trí Alibaba S-1 Comhdú bhí an-suimiúil, Tá oideachas agus a dhéanann mé a bhaint amach cé chomh mór is a gcuid gnó agus cé chomh casta an Idirlíon Gréasáin Síne. Is féidir leat a íoslódáil an iomlán Alibaba Samhail Airgeadais anseo. San Airteagal seo, Aghaidh a thabhairt ar mé gach rud a theastódh uait a fháil faoi Alibaba IPO. - Cad é Alibaba? - Cad é Samhail Ghnó Alibaba? - Cén fáth an t-ainm seo – Alibaba? - Conas a oibríonn sé i gcomparáid le cuideachtaí Idirlíon mór-ainm? - Cén fáth go bhfuil Alibaba IPO chomh tábhachtach? - An mbeidh sé seo a bheith ar an IPO is mó i stair SAM? - Cén fáth poiblí ag dul i SAM, Ní sa tSín nó HK? - Cé hiad na Infheisteoirí i Alibaba? – Gnóthachain amhantair do Softbank agus Yahoo - Alibaba 5 aigne uimhreacha -boggling ón doiciméad Clárú F-1? - Alibaba IPO Samhail Airgeadais i Excel - Alibaba IPO – $ 191 billiún luacháil? #1 – Cad é Alibaba? Is Alibaba an chuideachta ríomh-thráchtáil is brabúsach Sínis. Alibaba láimhseáil idirbhearta fiú níos mó ná $248 billiún an bhliain seo caite, níos mó ná Amazon agus eBay le chéile. Tá alibaba 231 million active buyers and 8 milliún díoltóirí gníomhacha. - Alibaba a bunaíodh i 1998-99 ag Jack English Múinteoir Ma, Tá ceanncheathrú i Hangzhou, An tSín. - Alibaba comhdhéanta den chuid is mó de dhá láithreáin ghréasáin siopadóireachta mór: 1) Taobao, sheol margadh-tomhaltóir dtaca le tomhaltóirí chun dul san iomaíocht leis an eBay sa tSín, agus 2) Taobao Meall (nó Tmall), margadh Amazon-mhaith a ligeann do thomhaltóirí na Síne a cheannach go díreach ó bhrandaí. - Chomh maith leis Juhuasuan, a Groupon-mhaith margadh ghrúpa-cheannach, na suímh a dhéanamh suas níos mó ná 80 faoin gcéad den ioncam Alibaba. - Pointe eile a thabhairt faoi deara go raibh méid ar líne an tSín margadh siopadóireachta $295 billiún i 2013 and Alibaba controlled 80% of this pie (uamhnach!) - Le méid ar líne tSín margadh siopadóireachta measta a iolrú 2.5 amanna go $713 billiún ag 2017 (fhoinse: iResearch), Is féidir le méid Alibaba ag fás ach amháin ó anseo. #2 – Cad é Samhail Ghnó Alibaba? D'fhonn tuiscint a fháil Samhail Ghnó Alibaba, is féidir linn a bheith ag féachaint ar an chairt thíos a léiríonn an líonra na n-eintiteas a oibríonn Alibaba. Chomh maith leis sin, beidh tú faoi deara conas a cheannach agus a dhíol na n-earraí a rinneadh trí líonra Alibaba do Ghnó go Gnó (B2B) nó Gnó do Chustaiméirí (B2C) samhlacha. Samhail Ghnó Alibaba fhoinse – Alibaba IPO Réamheolaire Ceannaitheoirí - Tomhaltóirí na Síne a cheannach ar Taobao Margadh, Tmall agus Juhuasuan - Cé brabhsáil nó cuardach ar Taobao Margadh, tomhaltóirí a fheiceáil liostaí a táirge ó Taobao Margadh agus Tmall - Tomhaltóirí Domhanda cheannach ar AliExpress - Mórdhíoltóirí Domhanda cheannach ar Alibaba.com Díoltóirí miondíola - Díoltóirí beag sa tSín a dhíol ar Taobao Margadh agus AliExpress - Brandaí Sínis dhíol ar Taobao Margadh, Tmall, Juhuasuan agus AliExpress agus brandaí domhanda a dhíol ar Tmall Domhanda - Díoltóirí táirgí foinse ar 1688.com Díoltóirí mórdhíola - Mórdhíoltóirí Síne agus monaróirí soláthar ceannaithe miondíola sa tSín ar 1688.com agus ceannaitheoirí mórdhíola domhanda ar Alibaba.com - Mórdhíoltóirí Síne agus monaróirí a sholáthar go díreach le tomhaltóirí domhanda ar AliExpress - Mórdhíoltóirí Domhanda agus monaróirí soláthar ceannaitheoirí mórdhíola domhanda ar Alibaba.com # 3 – Cén fáth an t-ainm seo – Alibaba? Jack Ma, bunaitheoir Alibaba, Theastaigh ainm a bheadh éasca do dhuine ar bith, fiú neamh-Síneach, to say. According to an agallamh he gave in 2006 le Plé Áise clár CNN, Ma bhí i siopa caife San Francisco nuair a tháinig sé suas leis an ainm. Anseo thíos tá an sliocht a agallamh Lá amháin bhí mé i San Francisco i siopa caife, agus bhí mé ag smaoineamh go bhfuil Alibaba le dea-ainm. Agus ansin tháinig fhreastalaí, agus dúirt mé a fhios agat faoi Alibaba? Agus dúirt sí yes. Dúirt mé cad a bhfuil a fhios agat faoi Alibaba, agus dúirt sí 'Open Sesame.’ Agus dúirt mé tá, is é seo an t-ainm! Ansin, chuaigh mé go amach ar an tsráid agus fuair 30 daoine agus d'iarr orthu, 'An bhfuil a fhios agat Alilbaba'? Daoine ón India, daoine ón nGearmáin, daoine ó Tokyo agus an tSín… Bhí a fhios acu go léir faoi Alibaba. Alibaba — sesame oscailte. Alibaba — 40 thieves. Ní alibaba a thief. Is alibaba chineál, duine gnó cliste, agus chuidigh sé an sráidbhaile. Mar sin,…éasca a litriú, agus a fhios domhanda. Alibaba Osclaíonn sesame do ghnóthais bheaga- do chuideachtaí meánmhéide. Cláraithe againn chomh maith an t-ainm AliMama, i gcás mian le duine éigin chun pósadh dúinn! #4 – Conas a oibríonn Alibaba i gcomparáid le cuideachtaí Idirlíon mór-ainm? Lorg gnó fíor inchomparáide leis Alibaba dodhéanta! Is alibaba meascán de margadh, inneall cuardaigh, bainc, comhlacht bogearraí, comhlacht seirbhísí soghluaiste, ríomhfhoghlaim, microblogging, sruthú físeáin agus i bhfad níos mó. Anseo thíos tá cairt suimiúil a dhéanann comparáid idir punann Alibaba lena ar eolas inchomparáide faoi seach. fhoinse: qz.com Lig dúinn a chur i gcomparáid anois ar chuid de na financials príomh Alibaba leis na biggies mhaith Amazon,eBay agus Google. Alibaba oll Earraí Ceannaíochta de $248 billion dollars is more than Amazon and eBay combined. Tá na Coimisinéirí Ioncaim Alibaba níos ísle ná sin de Amazon agus eBay. Is é an chúis go príomha leis an tsamhail ghnó, Alibaba Déanann airgead ag ceannaithe muirir le haghaidh fógra ar a láithreán gréasáin agus idirbheart táillí. While Alibaba’s revenue is less that Amazon and eBay, áfach, Alibaba is highly profitable company as compared to Amazon or eBay. Glan corrlach brabúis alibaba ag 40% Is bealach níos airde ná sin ar eBay, Amazon nó Google. #5 – Cén fáth go bhfuil Alibaba IPO chomh tábhachtach? Is Alibaba IPO le déileáil go mór go príomha mar gheall ar an méid de na IPO. Mar atá pléite níos déanaí sa airteagal, my valuation estimates for Alibaba is around $191 billiún. Íosluchtaigh Samhail Luachála alibaba IPO anseo Chomh maith leis sin, Alibaba IPO signifies athruithe domhanda. Leis an méid ollmhór agus líonra, Is féidir Alibaba IPO breathnú ar leathnú idirnáisiúnta thar an tSín agus d'fhéadfadh mar thoradh ar cogaí praghas agus iomaíocht dian sna Stáit Aontaithe. According to Reuters, Alibaba tar cosanta go dlúth a huaillmhianta do na Stáit Aontaithe agus feidhmeannaigh a bhí síos go príobháideach moltaí a thógfadh sé Amazon ceann-ar. Ach níl ceist beag go bhfuil infheistíochtaí sna Stáit Aontaithe ardtosaíocht, daoine eolas maidir leis an gcuideachta a rá. #6 – An mbeidh sé seo a bheith ar an IPO is mó i stair SAM? Tá an méid cruinn de Alibaba IPO curtha cosanta go dlúth. Tá an chuideachta úsáid as $1 billiún placeholder le haghaidh a doiciméadú chlárú leis an CSS. Go leor ag súil leis go bhféadfadh an méid Alibaba IPO a bheith idir $15 billiún – $20 billiún. Thíos chairt Taispeánann comparáid tapa Alibaba leis an IPOs Tech i SAM. #7 – Cén fáth poiblí ag dul i SAM, Ní sa tSín nó HK? Alibaba chuaigh ar dtús leis an Malartán Hong Cong do liostú, áfach, bhí siad a thréigean a gcuid pleananna ar liostú i HK gheall go bhfuil struchtúr a roinnt. - Is prionsabal rialachais lárnach de rialacha liostaithe Hong Cong srian ar scair dé-aicme struchtúir nó scéimeanna eile a chuireann ar chumas scairshealbhóirí nó bainisteoirí a rialú a bhfuil cumhacht vótála díréireach. - Alibaba ag iarraidh a liostú i Hong Cong, áfach, Hong Cong Malartáin agus Imréitigh nó ag an gCoimisiún um Urrúis agus todhchaí (SFC) Dhiúltaigh an éileamh Alibaba go bhfuil a chuid comhpháirtithe a bheith in ann tromlach bhord na cuideachta a ainmniú. - Alibaba argóint ar son eisceacht dá struchtúr féidir leat a luaigh a mhúnla gnó ar leith. D'fhéadfadh hong Cong Malartú tar eisceacht seo a deonaíodh mar a dhéanann an leabhar riail bhfuil foráil, áfach, chinn siad i gcoinne é. - An chúis is mó a bhí go bhfuil go leor fiontair faoi úinéireacht an stáit na Síne atá liostaithe i Hong Cong Malartú agus má bends sí riail do Alibaba, ansin tá sé ag dul a bheith acu riail a Bend do gach ceann de na fiontair faoi úinéireacht an stáit na Síne. - Chinn alibaba ansin a liostú ar an gcuideachta i Stáit Aontaithe Poist mar nach bhfuil struchtúir dé sórt toirmiscthe sna malartuithe Poist. #8 – Cé hiad na Infheisteoirí i Alibaba? Ó doiciméad clárúcháin Alibaba, tá sé d'fhoghlaim go bhfuil SoftBank Cór an infheisteoir is mó sa Alibaba lena hinfheistíocht tosaigh de $20 milliún i 2000. Is SoftBank an gainer is mó as a n-infheistíochtaí i Alibaba. Thíos Léiríonn cairt an gceist agus a luach faoi seach. (ag glacadh leis go bhfuil mo meastacháin $191 Tá billiún luacháil fíor ) #9 – Alibaba 5 Uimhreacha Big a fhios ó F-1 Comhdú - $5.8 billiún - Alibaba processed $5.8 billion USD in transactions and 254 million orders on Singles Day 2013 (Coibhéiseach Síne ar Cyber Dé Luain). - $248 billiún - Is é seo an Luach Comhlán Earraí Ceannaíochta iomlán na Alibaba (GMV) ar marketplaces miondíola tSín, níos mó ná Amazon agus eBay le chéile. - 5 Billiún Pacáistí – Alibaba’s logistics network delivered approximately five billion packages generated from Alibaba-owned marketplaces in 2013. - 31 milliún orduithe in aghaidh an lae! - Alibaba sees an average of 11.3 billion orders annually with 231 million active buyers. Tá sé seo thart ar 31 milliún orduithe in aghaidh an lae agus 49 orduithe bliantúil an meán in aghaidh an chustaiméara gníomhach. - 136 milliún – Tá alibaba 136 milliún úsáideoir gníomhach míosúil (Nollaig, 2013), ionadaíonn Poist 37000000000 $ i Mobile oll Earraí Ceannaíochta # 10 – Samhail Airgeadais Alibaba Tar éis streachailt ar feadh níos mó ná 3 lá a samhail airgeadais Alibaba a ullmhú, Bhí mé in ann a fháil ar mhúnla bunúsach réidh (leis an eolas teoranta ar fáil sa S-1 Comhdú). Is mian liom go raibh tuilleadh eolais a fháil faoi codanna ioncam agus costais sonraí, ach feidhmíonn an múnla seo mar cheann maith suas chun tuiscint Alibaba Ghrúpa agus Alibaba IPO Luacháil. Féadfaidh tú íoslódáil Alibaba Samhail Airgeadais anseo Boinn Tuisceana alibaba Samhail Airgeadais - I measc na figiúirí ráiteas ioncaim March'14 líon meastachán ráithe Jan'14-March'14 - Mé choigeartú ach an Airgid Tirim agus Coibhéisí agus Scairshealbhóir ar cothromais a léiriú ar an líon measta. Míreanna BS eile a choimeád mar a thuairiscítear i ráithe na Nollag. - Réamh-mheasta an chéad cheann eile 8 bliain de na Ráitis Airgeadais Alibaba (Ráiteas Ioncaim, Clár Comhardaithe agus na sreafaí airgid) - Is é an t-airgeadra a úsáidtear sa tsamhail RMB (Airgeadra áitiúil tSín). Is féidir a bhaint as an comhshó airgeadra chun figiúirí luachála iomchuí a dhíorthú. Tá F-1 chomhdú úsáidtear 1 US$ = RMB 6.2164. Anseo thíos tá na torthaí ón Samhail Airgeadais bunaithe Excel 1) Ioncam ag fás ag CAGR de thart 26% sa chéad 5 bliana d'aois agus teagmháil Poist 29000000000 $ ag March'2019. 2) Beidh an tSín Tráchtála fós an ranníocóir is mó do na ioncaim. 3) Gar Ioncam Glan do US $ 1.2 billiún faoi dheireadh March'2019. 4) Beidh Airgead Tirim agus Airgead Tirim Coibhéisí balún go $50 billion in the next 5 bliana. Conas a bheidh siad a imscaradh seo i bhfad airgid is rud is tábhachtaí chun faire amach do. 5) Tá an chuideachta fós EBITDA dearfach agus beidh a ghiniúint $1.75 billiún EBITDA ag March'19. #11 – Alibaba IPO – Chun Ceannaigh nó a NACH a Ceannaigh? Bloomberg polled 12 analyst to understand Luachálacha Alibaba and found that it is closer to $168 billiún, cé go ag súil le roinnt an luacháil a thrasnú $250 billiún nuair a thosaíonn sé trádáil. Tá éagsúlacht mhór i meastacháin luachála, mar sin shocraigh mé a teacht le mo treoirlínte féin ar luachálacha Alibaba. Íosluchtaigh Samhail Luachála alibaba anseo Mar sin,, conas is féidir linn luach Alibaba IPO? - Tá alibaba sreabhadh airgid dearfach agus is cuideachta bhrabúsach. Is é an cur chuige is oiriúnaí is féidir a úsáid chun luach Alibaba an gcur chuige faoi Shreabhadh Airgid lascainithe. - Tá mé ag seachaint go sonrach na luachálacha inchomparáide (luachálacha coibhneasta Alibaba) mar gheall ar an bhfíric go bhfuil sé beagnach dodhéanta a bioráin síos sraith de na cuideachtaí atá fíor inchomparáide leis Alibaba. - Sreabhadh Airgid lascainithe (DCF) Éilíonn cur chuige réamhaisnéise agus samhaltú financials anseo. Réamhaisnéise Sreabhadh Airgid Saor in Aisce Alibaba (FCFF) Beidh alibaba ghiniúint $1.2 billiún d'airgead saor in aisce sreabhadh i March'19. Mar faoi deara againn thíos go Alibaba Beidh ghiniúint Sreabhadh le intuartha dearfach Airgid Saor in Aisce. Anseo thíos tá an tábla go achoimre ar aschur Luachála DCF Alibaba. Táimid nóta seo a leanas ón tábla thuas – - Alibaba valuation is $191.5 billiún (WACC de 9% agus fás suthaineachta de 3% ) - Infheistíochtaí Gearrthéarmacha, urrúis airgid agus Infheistíochta srianta a glacadh ag Costas (Clár Comhardaithe Méid) - Infheistíochtaí i Investees Cothromais a luacháil ag Costas (méid an chláir chomhardaithe). Cé go bhfuil an dá chuideachta Weibo agus AutoNavi thrádáil go poiblí, I have fóill iad ag Costas agus NACH ar a gcuid praghsanna trádála. - Mé glacadh leis freisin meán payout luacháil Alipays de $4 billiún (urlár de $2 billiún agus caipín de $6 billiún). Below is the excerpt from the Alibaba’s F-1 Filing Ar tharla imeachtaí áirithe leachtachta maidir le Alipay (lena n-áirítear, faoi réir coinníollacha áirithe, tairiscint phoiblí tosaigh Alipay, aistriú 37.5% nó níos mó de na leasanna cothromais de Alipay nó a dhíol go léir nó go substaintiúil de shócmhainní Alipay), Beaga agus Micrimhilseogra Seirbhísí Airgeadais Comhlacht méid is comhionann le pá le linn 37.5% de luach cothromais de Alipay amach i gcás leachtachta sórt, le íocaíocht íosta de US $ 2.0 billiún agus íocaíocht uasta de US $ 6.0 billiún, faoi réir ag arduithe áirithe agus íocaíochtaí breise mura mbeidh imeacht leachtachta tharla ag comóradh an séú ó dháta an chomhaontaithe bunaidh, nó an íocaíocht imeacht leachtachta. Anailís Íogaireacht Luachála alibaba DCF - Mar a luadh thuas,, Is é an luacháil a laghad Alibaba $123 billiún (WACC de 11% agus Fás na 6%) - Má tá tú ag baint úsáide as boinn tuisceana éagsúla, is féidir leat a bhaint as an tábla thuas do do sraith de threoir luachála. Post eile go mbeidh tú grá - Bosca IPO Luacháil – Chun Ceannaigh nó a NACH a Ceannaigh? - Barr 10 sonraí scariest de Bosca IPO - Fiontar Luach vs Luach Cothromas Cad Aghaidh? Rud ar bith chaill mé? Cad iad do thuairimí ar luachálacha? An bhfuil tú ag infheistiú i Alibaba? Bíodh a fhios agam cad a cheapann tú, do chuid aiseolais ag Ag fágáil Comment p.s. - Ní féidir liom ionadaíocht a dhéanamh ar bith gnólacht bróicéireachta. Is iad na tuairimí thuas mo measúnú Alibaba IPO. Tá iarracht déanta agam mo dhícheall chun a chinntiú go cruinneas fíorasach na hanailíse, áfach, bíodh leisce ort a chur ar fáil dom le bearta ceartaitheacha má tá tú ar an láthair ar aon earráidí.