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På Mars 24,2014, Online lagringsföretag Box ansökte om en börsintroduktion och presenterade sina planer på att höja 250 miljoner dollar. Företaget är i loppet för att vara att bygga den största molnlagringsplattform och det konkurrerar med jättarna som Google Inc och dess rival, Dropbox. Scanning through the Box S-1 Filing, you may note that Box is a typical Silicon Valley IPO Company, with rapid revenue growth and mountain of losses. If you have already decided to invest in Box Inc, then please do NOT read my article on Topp 10 Scariest Details of the (Svart) Box IPO. Du kanske också vill ladda ner Box Financial Model för mer information. Box IPO Värdering? As seen from above, Box massive losses and no profitability in the near future leave us with less options for valuing this firm using the traditional methods such as Price to EPS (PE), PEG, EV/EBITDA etc literally fail. So how do we find the value of Box? If you wish to learn more about valuation, you can read this article on Eget kapital Värde vs Enterprise Value, For Box IPO valuation, I have used the following approaches – - Relative Valuation – SAAS Comparable Comps - Comparable Acquisition Analysis - Valuation using Stock Based Rewards - Valuation cues from Box Private Equity Funding - Valuation cues from DropBox Private Equity Funding Valuation - Box DCF Valuations The graph below summarizes Box IPO Valuation under different scenario. Summary of the Analysis - Cannot apply DCF valuation (#6) as the FCFF is negative even for the projected FY19. - Comparing Box valuation (#5) with Dropbox recent funding implies the highest range of share price ($60/share-$65/share) - Comparable Acquisition comps (#3) provides the lowest range of share price valuations ($5.2/share – $12/share) - Overall, if we allocate 20% weightage to each of the above valuation methodology, then the Box IPO expected price comes out to be $27/share Let us now closely look at the detailed analysis of the Box IPO valuation methodologies used - #1 – Relative Valuation – SaaS Comparable Comps While evaluating Box Inc Income Statement, you may note that Box Inc has historically shown high growth trajectory (>100%), Gross Margin of 70%-80%, Renewal rates of more than 100% and obviously it has an opportunity upsell and cross sell in a market that is growing day by day. Emellertid, Box Inc does not become profitable in the near future (even at an EBITDA level, see the chart below) In such a scenario, we can apply either (en) Enterprise value per $ sales (EV / Sales) eller (b) Assign a value per subscriber (EV/Subscriber) or Both (en) och (b) Why assigning EV/Subscriber is not Right? I know you may be wondering how we can assign value for business on the basis of subscriber? Even i was left wondering whether it is logical to apply a per subscriber value for Box Inc like the way it was applied in the case of Twitter, Facebook. Infact, Box Inc S-1 prominently displays the number of subscribers (as seen in the below chart). I started asking myself these questions and it became increasing clear to me that valuing Box on per subscriber basis is not feasible – - What investors should make of the company’s 25 million total registered users, 93% of which aren’t paying customers? - Means only 7% are paying customers! - What is the conversion ratio – converting from Free Trial users to actual paid users? The company prospectus doesn’t provide any data with respect to the conversion of the free users to paid users - What has been the subscriber growth rate for Box inc? Are those 25 million registered accounts really indicative of Box’s ability to grow in coming years? The company doesn’t provide any data on this. - Is Box a Social Media Networking Site? Obviously No. The last question was relatively important because in the case of Facebook and Twitter, social media metrics like Monthly Active users (MAU) have been used a proxy for company’s growth and has been an acceptable means of valuation. Increase or decrease of MAUs are key pointers for predicting earnings and valuations. Emellertid, Box subscriber activity or registered users do not provide any direct correlation of increase/decrease interactions and its associated value of the firm. Applying EV/Sales for Box Valuation This leaves us with only one valuation tool can be applied for Box IPO valuations i.e. EV / Sales. For doing a quick comparison across SaaS companies, i took the SaaS companies data from the BVP Cloud Index. SaaS Comparable Valuation – Important Notes - Cloud bolag handlas till i genomsnitt 9.5x EV / Sales multipel. - Vi noterar företag som Xero är en avvikare som handlas till 44x EV / Sales multipel (förväntat 2014 tillväxt på 94%). - Cloud bolag handlas till EV / EBITDA multipel om 32x. Box Värdering - Box Inc värderingsområdet från $11.02 (pessimistisk fall) till $24.74 (optimistiska fallet) - Mest förväntade värdering för Box Inc använder relativ värdering är $16.77 (förväntat) #2 – Comparable Acquisition Analysis “Comparable Acquisition Analysis” is based on the premise that the value of a company or an asset can be estimated by analyzing the prices paid by purchasers of ownership interests in reported comparable acquisitions. There has been a number of transaction within the SaaS domain in the recent past. Below are some of the large M&A transactions in the recent past. Based on the above comparable acquisition analysis, we can arrive at the following conclusions for Box Valuation – - Mean EV/Sales of 7.4x implies a valuation of closer to $900 milj (implying a share price of $9/share) - Highest EV/Sales of 9.7x implies a valuation of $1.2 miljard (implying a share price of $12/share) - Lowest EV/Sales of 4.1x implies a valuation of $520 milj (implying a share price of $5.2/share) #3 – Valuation Using Stock Based Rewards The following table summarizes, by grant date, all stock options, restricted stock units and restricted stock awards from January 1, 2013 through January 31, 2014: As per Box Inc S-1 filing, they have use 3 approaches primarily for valuing stock based rewards – - Income Approach (just like DCF approach) - Estimating the future cash flows of the company and then discounting the future cash flows. - Comparable Company Analysis with valuations based on Revenue (trailing 12 months and forward 12 månader) and EBITDA Multiples (trailing 12 months and forward 12 månader). - Mergers and Acquisition Transaction analysis Box Inc arrived at these deemed fair prices by applying reasonable weights to Income Approach, weights to comparable company analysis and Merger and Acquisition Transaction Analysis. Thereafter a reasonable marketability discount of around 20% was applied. I plotted these deemed fair prices of the Box Inc to see how it has changed over a period of time. As we can see from above Valuation of Box Inc Shares increased dramatically from $4.53 in Feb, 2013 till $14.06 in Jan,2014 (an incredible jump of more than 200%!). Does this imply that valuation of Box Inc would continue the same momentum for the next one year? Just on the basis of trend can a valuation number be arrived at? - Optimistic Case – 100% appreciation – if a similar momentum continues, then the share prices may touch $30 per share at the end of Jan’2015. - Expected Case – 50% appreciation - A jump of 50% from the current levels may lead to Box IPO price at $21 nivåer. - Pessimistic Case – 0% appreciation - In the pessimistic case, Box share may remain at the same level as the most recent deemed fair price of $14.1 in the near term. #4 – Valuation cues from Private Equity Funding Though it is good to understand the valuation range using the Stock Based Rewards, emellertid, a better measure to understand Box Inc valuations would be to look at its Private Equity Funding structure and its implied share price. Below is the graph that details implied share price at various funding levels. Note how Box Inc implied share price has increased from $1.28 till $18.00 since April, 2010 reflecting a jump of whooping 1300%! - Optimistic Case – 100% appreciation - if a similar momentum continues, then the share prices may touch $36 per share at the end of Jan’2015. - Expected Case – 50% appreciation – the stock may trade at around $27. - Pessimistic Case – 0% appreciation – In the pessimistic case, Box share may remain at the same level as the most recent deemed fair price of $18 in the near term. #5 – Valuation cues from Dropbox Private Equity Funding In January, 2014, WSJ reported that Dropbox raised $250 milj funding from Blackrock and existing investors and pegged the company valuation at $10 miljard. This is in addition to its October 2011 round of funding where Dropbox raised $257 million at a valuation of $4 miljard (more than double in approximately 2 år). DropBox reported its sales of around $200 million implying a EV/Sales multiple of around 50x. - Box Sales for FY14 was $127 milj. If we apply the same multiple for Box, then the valuation would touch $6-6.5 miljard. - Assuming that post IPO, Box number of shares would be around 100 milj, then the per share value would be between $60-$65 per aktie #6 – Discounted Cash Flow Approach for Box Diskonterade kassaflöden (DCF) tillvägagångssätt kräver prognoser och modelle framtida ekonomi. Though preparing a financial model was a relatively easier task, the area where I faced problem was in assumptions ( Sales growth, Costs, Margins, Capex etc), all leading to the Free Cash flow to the firm. Forecasting Box Free Cash Flow (FCFF) Forecasting of FCFF of Box Inc involved preparing an integrated Box financial model. But here are some of the important assumptions used in the model. Using the above assumptions, we find that the company does not generate any free cash flows in the next five years! Following observations regarding the DCF Model for FCFF - Box FCFF is negative for the next five years. I feel it is not correct to forecast beyond this period as it introduces further volatility - Even if we forecast for another 5-10 år, the contribution of Terminal Value to Total Enterprise value would be atleast 90-95%. This leaves too much room for errors as valuation of Box may change substantially with a very small change in assumed WACC and growth rate. Nästa steg? Något jag missat? Låt mig veta vad du tycker, feedback genom att lämna en kommentar P.S. – Jag representerar inte någon mäklarfirma. Ovanstående synpunkter är min egen bedömning av Box IPO. Jag har försökt mitt bästa för att se till saklig precision i analysen, emellertid, är du välkommen att förse mig med korrigerande åtgärder om du ser några fel.
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An 24 Márta,2014, Cuideachta stórála Líne Bosca comhdaíodh le haghaidh IPO agus nocht a chuid pleananna a ardú de Stáit Aontaithe Poist $ 250,000,000. Tá an chuideachta i rás a bheith thógáil ar an ardán stórála scamall is mó agus iomaíocht leis na biggies cosúil le Google Inc agus a rival, Dropbox. Scanadh tríd an Bosca S-1 Comhdú, Is féidir leat a thabhairt faoi deara go bhfuil an bosca tipiciúil Silicon Valley IPO Cuideachta, with rapid revenue growth and mountain of losses. If you have already decided to invest in Box Inc, le do thoil ansin a dhéanamh NACH léamh mo alt ar Barr 10 Tá sonraí scariest de na (Black) Bosca IPO. Is féidir leat freisin a íoslódáil Bosca Samhail Airgeadais le haghaidh tuilleadh sonraí. Bosca IPO Luacháil? Mar atá le feiceáil ó thuas, Bosca caillteanais ollmhór agus aon brabúsacht go luath amach anseo a fhágáil dúinn le roghanna níos lú luacháil seo daingean ag baint úsáide as na modhanna traidisiúnta mar Praghas do EPS (PE), PEG, EV / EBITDA srl theipeann literally. Mar sin, conas is féidir linn teacht ar an luach Bosca? Más mian leat níos mó eolas faoi luacháil a fhoghlaim, Is féidir leat léamh t-airteagal seo ar Cothromas Luach vs Luach Fiontraíochta, Le haghaidh luacháil Bosca IPO, I have used the following approaches – - Luacháil choibhneasta – Saas comps inchomparáide - Anailís Fháil Inchomparáide - Valuation using Stock Based Rewards - Valuation cues from Box Private Equity Funding - Leideanna Luachála ó DropBox Cothromas Príobháideach Luacháil Maoiniú - Bosca Luachálacha DCF Achoimre ar an graf thíos Bosca IPO Luachála faoi scéal difriúil. Achoimre ar an Anailís - Ní féidir iarratas a dhéanamh luacháil DCF (#6) mar go bhfuil an FCFF diúltach fiú do na FY19 réamh-mheasta. - Comparáid a luacháil Bosca (#5) le Dropbox le tuiscint maoiniú le déanaí ar an raon is airde de praghas a roinnt ($60/scairshealbhóir $ 65 / sciar) - Comps Fháil Inchomparáide (#3) Soláthraíonn an réimse is ísle de luachálacha praghas a roinnt ($5.2/scair – $12/scair) - Tríd is tríd, má leithdháileadh againn 20% weightage do gach ceann de na modheolaíochta luachála thuas, ansin a thagann an praghas ag súil Bosca IPO amach a bheith $27/scair Lig dúinn anois breathnú go grinn ar an anailís mhionsonraithe ar na modheolaíochtaí luachála Bosca IPO a úsáideadh - #1 – Luacháil choibhneasta – SaaS comps inchomparáide Cé a mheas Ráiteas Bosca Inc Ioncaim, Is féidir leat a thabhairt faoi deara go bhfuil Bosca Inc léirithe go stairiúil trajectory fás ard (>100%), Imeall chomhlán 70%-80%, Rátaí a athnuachan níos mó ná 100% agus ar ndóigh tá sé upsell deis agus tras dhíol i margadh atá ag fás ó lá go lá. Mar sin féin, Ní Bosca Inc bheith brabúsach go luath amach anseo (fiú ag leibhéal EBITDA, féach ar an gcairt thíos) I cás den sórt sin, is féidir linn iarratas ceachtar (a) Enterprise value per $ díolacháin (EV / Díolacháin) nó (b) Assign a value per subscriber (EV / Rannpháirtí) nó an dá (a) agus (b) Cén fáth a shannadh EV / Níl Rannpháirtí Ceart? Tá a fhios agam is féidir leat a bheith wondering conas is féidir linn luach ar shannadh le haghaidh gnó ar bhonn suibscríobhaí? Fiú bhí mé fágtha wondering cibé an bhfuil sé loighciúil a chur i bhfeidhm in aghaidh an luach suibscríobhaí do Bosca Inc cosúil leis an dóigh a bhí i bhfeidhm i gcás na Twitter, Facebook. Infact, Box Inc S-1 prominently displays the number of subscribers (mar atá le feiceáil sa chairt thíos). Thosaigh mé ag iarraidh mé féin na ceisteanna seo agus bhí sé ag méadú léir dom nach bhfuil meas Bosca ar aghaidh an bhonn suibscríobhaí indéanta – - Cad iad na infheisteoirí ba chóir a dhéanamh ar na cuideachta 25 milliún úsáideoirí cláraithe iomlán, 93% nach bhfuil custaiméirí ag íoc? - Modhanna amháin 7% ag íoc do chustaiméirí! - Cad é an cóimheas chomhshó – athrú ó úsáideoirí Triail Saor in Aisce úsáideoirí a íocadh iarbhír? Ní dhéanann an réamheolaire chuideachta a chur ar fáil aon sonraí maidir le comhshó na n-úsáideoirí saor in aisce d'úsáideoirí a íocadh - Cad a bhí ar an ráta fáis suibscríobhaí do Bosca inc? An bhfuil sin 25 milliún cuntais cláraithe táscach i ndáiríre ar chumas Bosca ag fás sna blianta amach romhainn? The company doesn’t provide any data on this. - An bhfuil Bosca a Líonraithe Láithreán Meáin Sóisialta? Is léir Níl. Ba é an cheist seo caite sách tábhachtach mar i gcás Facebook agus Twitter, méadracht meáin shóisialta cosúil le úsáideoirí Gníomhacha Míosúil (MAU) Baineadh úsáid seachfhreastalaí le haghaidh fáis na cuideachta agus bhí ina modhanna inghlactha luachála. Tá méadú nó laghdú ar MAUs leideanna eochair tuilleamh agus luachálacha a thuar.Mar sin féin, Nach bhfuil úsáideoirí gníomhaíochta suibscríobhaí bosca nó cláraithe ar fáil aon comhghaolú díreach idirghníomhaíochtaí mhéadú / laghdú agus a luach a bhaineann an ghnólachta. Iarratas a dhéanamh ar EV / Díolacháin do Bosca Luacháil Is féidir Fágann sé seo dúinn le ach uirlis luachála amháin a chur i bhfeidhm maidir le luachálacha Bosca IPO ie. EV / Díolacháin. Chun déanamh comparáid tapa ar fud na cuideachtaí SaaS, Ghlac mé na cuideachtaí sonraí SaaS from the TGB Innéacs Cloud. SaaS Luacháil inchomparáide – Nótaí tábhachtacha - Cuideachtaí Cloud ag trádáil ar an meán de 9.5x EV / Díolacháin Il. - Tugaimid faoi deara go bhfuil cuideachtaí ar nós Xero asluiteach a ceirdeanna ag 44x EV / Díolacháin il (ag súil 2014 ráta fáis de 94%). - Cuideachtaí Cloud trádáil ar EV / TRÚCDA iolraí de 32x. Luacháil bosca - Bosca Inc raon luachála ó $11.02 (cás Doirbh) go $24.74 (cás dóchasach) - Tá luacháil is súil do Bosca Inc ag baint úsáide as Luacháil choibhneasta $16.77 (ag súil) #2 – Anailís Fháil Inchomparáide “Comparable Acquisition Analysis” is based on the premise that the value of a company or an asset can be estimated by analyzing the prices paid by purchasers of ownership interests in reported comparable acquisitions. There has been a number of transaction within the SaaS domain in the recent past. Thíos tá roinnt de na M mór&A n-idirbheart san am atá caite le déanaí. Bunaithe ar an anailís thuas a fháil inchomparáide, is féidir linn a teacht ar na conclúidí seo a leanas maidir le Bosca Luacháil – - Meán tuiscint EV / Díolacháin 7.4x luacháil de níos gaire do $900 milliún (ag tabhairt praghas sciar de $ 9 / sciar) - Ciallaíonn EV / Díolacháin 9.7x Airde luacháil de $1.2 billiún (ag tabhairt praghas sciar de $ 12 / sciar) - Ciallaíonn EV is ísle / Díolacháin 4.1x luacháil de $520 milliún (ag tabhairt praghas sciar de $ 5.2 / sciar) #3 – Ag baint úsáide as luacháil Luachanna Saothair Stoc Bunaithe Achoimre sa tábla seo a leanas, de réir dáta deontais, gach rogha stoic, restricted stock units and restricted stock awards from January 1, 2013 through January 31, 2014: De réir Bosca Inc S-1 chomhdú, tá siad úsáid 3 chuige go príomha le haghaidh a luacháil luach saothair stoc bunaithe - - Cur Chuige Ioncaim (díreach cosúil le cur chuige DCF) - Ag meas an sreabhadh airgid amach anseo de chuid na cuideachta agus ansin an insreabhadh airgid amach anseo. - Comparable Company Analysis with valuations based on Revenue (trailing 12 mhí agus ar aghaidh 12 mhí) agus Iolraithe EBITDA (trailing 12 mhí agus ar aghaidh 12 mhí). - Cumaisc agus anailís Idirbheart Fháil Bosca Inc tháinig ar na praghsanna cothrom measfar trí chur i bhfeidhm meáchain réasúnta Cur Chuige Ioncaim, meáchain do anailís cuideachta inchomparáide agus Anailís Idirbheart Cumasc agus Fála. Ina dhiaidh sin ar lascaine indíoltacht réasúnta thart 20% was applied. Breactha mé na praghsanna cothrom measfar an Bhosca Inc a fheiceáil conas tá sé athrú thar thréimhse ama. Mar is féidir linn a fheiceáil ó thuas Luacháil Bosca Inc Scaireanna méadú mór tagtha ó $4.53 i Feabhra, 2013 go $14.06 Eanáir,2014 (ar léim dochreidte de níos mó ná 200%!). An bhfuil sé seo le tuiscint go luacháil Bosca Inc leanfaí an móiminteam céanna le haghaidh an chéad cheann eile bliana? Díreach ar bhonn treocht sin uimhir luachála a tháinig ar? - Dóchasach Cás – 100% meas – má leanann móiminteam den chineál céanna, ansin féadfaidh an scairphraghsanna dteagmháil $30 in aghaidh na scaire ag deireadh Jan'2015. - Cás súil leo – 50% meas - A léim de 50% ó na leibhéil reatha mar thoradh ar phraghas Bosca IPO ag $21 leibhéil. - Doirbh Cás – 0% meas - Sa chás Doirbh, Is féidir a roinnt bosca fanacht ag an leibhéal céanna leis an praghas cothrom is déanaí a mheastar de $14.1 sa téarma in aice. #4 – Leideanna Luachála ó Maoiniú Cothromas Príobháideach Cé go bhfuil sé go maith chun tuiscint a fháil ar an raon luachála ag baint úsáide as na Luachanna Saothair Stoc Bunaithe, áfach, Bheadh beart níos fearr a thuiscint luachálacha Bosca Inc a chun breathnú ar a struchtúr Maoiniú Cothromas Príobháideach agus a praghas a roinnt intuigthe. Anseo thíos tá an graf a shonraíonn praghas a roinnt intuigthe ag leibhéil mhaoinithe éagsúla. Tabhair faoi deara conas tá méadú Bosca Inc praghas a roinnt intuigthe ó $1.28 go $18.00 ó Aibreán, 2010 rud a léiríonn léim de whooping 1300%! (CAGR de 251%). - Dóchasach Cás – 100% meas - má leanann móiminteam den chineál céanna, ansin féadfaidh an scairphraghsanna dteagmháil $36 in aghaidh na scaire ag deireadh Jan'2015. - Cás súil leo – 50% meas – féadfaidh an stoc trádála ar fud $27. - Doirbh Cás – 0% meas – Sa chás Doirbh, Is féidir a roinnt bosca fanacht ag an leibhéal céanna leis an praghas cothrom is déanaí a mheastar de $18 sa téarma in aice. #5 – Leideanna Luachála ó Dropbox Maoiniú Cothromas Príobháideach I mí Eanáir, 2014, WSJ reported that Dropbox ardaíodh $250 milliún funding from Blackrock and existing investors and pegged the company valuation at $10 billiún. Tá sé seo sa bhreis ar a Deireadh Fómhair 2011 bhabhta maoinithe i gcás ina ardaíodh Dropbox $257 milliún ag luacháil $4 billiún (níos mó ná dúbailt i thart 2 bliana). DropBox Thuairiscigh a díolacháin de thart $200 milliún ag tabhairt EV / Díolacháin iolraí de thart ar 50x. - Díolacháin bosca do FY14 bhí $127 milliún. Má iarratas a dhéanamh linn an t-iolrú céanna do Bosca, ansin bheadh an luacháil teagmháil $6-6.5 billiún. - Ag glacadh leis go post IPO, Bheadh roinnt bosca scaireanna a bheith thart ar 100 milliún, ansin bheadh an luach in aghaidh na scaire a bheith idir $60-$65 in aghaidh na scaire #6 – Lascainithe Cur Chuige Sreabhadh Airgid do Bosca Sreabhadh Airgid lascainithe (DCF) Éilíonn cur chuige réamhaisnéise agus samhaltú financials anseo. Cé a ullmhú Ba samhail airgeadais tasc sách éasca, an limistéar inar os mé fadhb a bhí i mboinn tuisceana ( Fás Díolacháin, Costais, Imill, Capex srl), gach as a dtiocfaidh an sreabhadh airgid saor in aisce leis an ngnólacht. Réamhaisnéise Bosca Sreabhadh Airgid Saor in Aisce (FCFF) Réamhaisnéis de FCFF de Bosca Inc gceist samhail airgeadais Bosca comhtháite a ullmhú. Ach anseo tá roinnt de na boinn tuisceana tábhachtacha a úsáidtear sa tsamhail. Ag baint úsáide as na boinn tuisceana thuas, feicimid nach bhfuil an chuideachta aon sreabhadh airgid saor in aisce sna cúig bliana amach romhainn a ghiniúint! Tar éis tuairimí maidir leis an tSamhail DCF do FCFF - Tá Bosca FCFF diúltach do na cúig bliana atá romhainn. Is dóigh liom nach bhfuil sé ceart a thuar níos faide ná an tréimhse seo mar tugann sé luaineacht a thuilleadh - Fiú má réamhaisnéis againn le haghaidh eile 5-10 bliana, Bheadh an méid a chuireann Luach Críochfort chun luach Fiontraíochta Iomlán bheith atleast 90-95%. Fágann sé seo an seomra i bhfad an iomarca earráidí is luacháil Bosca athrú go suntasach le hathrú an-beag i WACC agus fás ráta Glactar. Na Chéad Chéimeanna Eile? Rud ar bith chaill mé? Bíodh a fhios agam cad a cheapann tú, do chuid aiseolais trí Ardteistiméireacht Comment p.s. – Ní féidir liom ionadaíocht a dhéanamh ar bith gnólacht bróicéireachta. Is iad na tuairimí thuas mo mheasúnaithe féin ar Bosca IPO. Tá iarracht déanta agam mo dhícheall chun a chinntiú go cruinneas fíorasach na hanailíse, áfach, bíodh leisce ort a chur ar fáil dom le bearta ceartaitheacha má tá tú ar an láthair ar aon earráidí.