http___www.teagasc.ie_gaeilge_news_2008_200812-09_g.asp_1.xml
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Dramatic Decline in On-farm Investment Planned 09 December 2008 Investment on farms is expected to shrink back to just €363 million in 2009. The Teagasc Situation and Outlook Conference taking place in Tullamore today, Tuesday, 9 December, heard how investment in 2008 by Irish farmers reached record levels of €1.9 billion, three times the amount invested annually between 2000 and 2005. That level of investment is equal to 100 per cent of total farm income in 2008. Liam Connolly from the Teagasc Rural Economy Research Centre anticipates a huge decline in on-farm investment next year, as farmers return to more traditional levels of investment. The Teagasc National Farm Survey has shown that dairy farmers will account for over half of the planned investment in 2009 with cattle farmers accounting for a further 30 per cent. Income data for 2008 from the CSO showed that farm incomes fell by 12.8 per cent compared to the previous year. When interest payments made by farmers are taken into account, Liam Connolly estimates that incomes in the agri sector will have declined by 16.1 per cent in 2008 compared to 2007. The largest reduction came in the cereals sector where lower market prices and higher inputs costs squeezed margins, reducing tillage farmers’ income by one fifth. Uncertainty in pigmeat market Pig specialist with Teagasc, Michael Martin, told the conference that pig producers in Ireland have incurred very substantial losses from July 2007 to June 2008. A recovery in profitability occurred in July of this year, but this has been short lived as prices have plummeted due to difficulties in the global financial markets and the economic recession. What was already a very difficult situation for producers became a crisis at the weekend with the discovery of the PCB problem. Getting slaughtering plants fully operational is the first of a number of steps in a recovery plan for a sector that has farm gate sales of €350 million per annum and is responsible for the employment of close to 7,500 people. Input expenditure on nearly all farms increased in 2008 and had a particular impact on dairy farms. Teagasc estimate that the net margin per litre of milk produced this year is 9 cent per litre compared to 13 cent per litre last year. Teagasc economist Thia Hennessy is forecasting a 15 per cent decline in milk price for 2009 to about 27 cent per litre, leaving a net margin per litre of 6 cent for the average farmer. For cattle farmers, 2008 has been a reasonable year, with the price for R3 grade steers running 16 per cent ahead of 2007 levels. However 2008 was a year with significant increases in the cost of fertiliser, feed and fuel and adverse weather conditions. Despite these setbacks, average gross margins are expected to be higher at €180 per livestock unit in 2008. Teagasc economist James Breen expects Irish beef prices to remain largely unchanged next year, but he expects the cost of fertiliser and feed to decline in 2009. Top third of cereal farmers in profit There is considerable uncertainty regarding cereal prices for 2009, but based on the current futures trading prices, it is assumed that the 2009 harvest prices will be up on this year’s price levels. However without any significant upward movement in cereal prices, or real reduction in input costs, the forecasted net margin for the average producer in 2009 will be negative. Fiona Thorne of Teagasc said that only the top one third of producers is expected to make a positive margin from cereals next year. Teagasc economists expect margins in sheep production to improve in 2009 as input costs decline from the higher levels in the current year. Kevin Hanrahan is forecasting a gross margin per ewe of €510 per hectare for lowland mid season systems. Trevor Donnellan of Teagasc said that input costs played a major role in determining margins in 2008. However, input expenditure should decline in 2009, particularly in the case of feed, fertiliser and fuel, due to falling cereal and oil prices. In the Forestry sector, despite the introduction of the Forest Environment Protection Scheme (FEPS), the area of new forestry planted continues to fall short of government targets. Up to the end of October, the level of new planting was 4,800 hectares, well short of the government target of 10,000 hectares per annum. However forest thinning activity has increased dramatically with the number of felling licensees issued by the forest service increasing from 102 in 2005 to 692 in 2008. Teagasc forestry specialist Mary Ryan said that this is as a result of new market opportunities for forest thinnings like wood chip for heat, and wood chip for livestock stand off pads.
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Titim Dhrámata ar Infheistíocht Ar Fheirm Beartaithe 09 Nollaig 2008 Meastar go dtitfidh infheistíocht ar fheirmeacha siar go €363 milliún amháin i 2009. Chualathas ag The Teagasc Situation agus an Chomhdháil Outlook a tharla ar an Tulach Mór inniu, an Mháirt, 9 Nollaig, gur bhain infheistíocht i 2008 ag feirmeoirí na hÉireann leibhéil nár baineadh amach riamh ag €1.9 billiún, trí oiread an méid a infheistíodh gach bliain idir 2000 agus 2005. Is ionann an leibhéal sin infheistíochta agus 100 faoin gcéad d'ioncam iomlán feirme i 2008. Réamh-mheasann Liam Connolly, ó Ionad Taighde Teagaisc ar Gheilleagar na Tuaithe go mbeidh titim ollmhór ar infheistíocht ar fheirm an bhliain seo chugainn, de réir mar a fhilleann feirmeoirí ar leibhéil níos traidisiúnta infheistíochta.Léiríodh i Suirbhéireacht Náisiúnta ar Fheirmeoireacht de chuid Teagaisc gur feirmeoirí déiríochta ba chúis le breis agus leath den infheistíocht atá beartaithe i 2009 agus feirmeoirí eallaigh ba chúis le 30 faoin gcéad eile. Léirigh sonraí ioncaim 2008 ón CSO gur thit ioncaim feirmeacha le 12.8 faoin gcéad i gcomparáid leis an mbliain roimhe. Nuair a ghlactar íocaíochtaí úis a rinne feirmeoirí san áireamh, réamh-mheasann Liam Connolly go mbeidh titim de 16.1 faoin gcéad in earnáil na tamhlaíochta i 2008 i gcomparáid le 2007. Tharla an t-ísliú is mó in earnáil na n-arbhar mar gur cúngaíodh corrlaigh mar gheall ar phraghsanna níos ísle margaidh agus costais níos airde ionchuir, agus íslíodh ioncaim feirmeoirí curaíochta le cúigiú. Neamhchinnteacht sa mhargadh muiceola D’inis an speisialtóir le Teagasc ar mhuca, Michael Martin, don chomhairle go bhfuil an-chuid caillteanais i ndiaidh teacht i bhfeidhm ar tháirgeoirí na muc in Éirinn ó Iúil 2007 go Meitheamh 2008. Tharla gnóthú i mbrabúsacht in Iúil na bliana seo, ach níor mhair sé seo i bhfad ar an ábhar gur thit praghsanna go mór mar gheall ar dheacrachtaí sna margaí domhanda airgeadais agus mar gheall ar an meathlú geilleagarach. Rinneadh géarchéim de stáid iontach doiligh do tháirgeoirí ag an deireadh seachtaine nuair a aimsíodh ar an bhfadhb PCB. Seamlais a dhéanamh iomlán oibríochtúil is ea an chéad chéim de roinnt céimeanna i bplean gnóthaithe le haghaidh earnála a bhfuil díolacháin gheata feirme de €350 milliún gach bliain agus atá freagrach as beagnach 7,500 duine a fhostú. Tháinig ardú ar chaiteachas ionchuir ar beagnach gach feirm i 2008 agus bhí tionchar faoi leith aige ar fheirmeacha déiríochta. Réamh-mheasann Teagasc gurbh é 9 cent an lítear an corrlach glan ar gach lítear bainne a tháirgfear i mbliana i gcomparáid le 13 cent an lítear anuraidh.Tá eacnamaí Teagaisc Thia Hennessy ag réamh-mheas go mbeidh titim de 15 faoin gcéad i bpraghas an bhainne i 2009 go beagnach 27 faoin gcéad an lítear, ag fágáil go mbeidh corrlach glan de 6 cent an lítear don ghnáthfheirmeoir. Bliain réasúnta a bhí i 2008 d’fheirmeoirí déiríochta, agus an praghas ar bhulláin de ghrád R3 16 faoin gcéad chun tosaigh ar leibhéil 2007. Tháinig méaduithe suntasacha i 2008 ar chostas leasacháin, beathaithe agus breosla agus ar dhroch-choinníollacha na haimsire. In ainneoin na ndeacrachtaí seo, meastar go mbeidh meánchorrlaigh chomhlána níos airde ag €180 an t-aonad beostoic i 2008. Measann James Breen, eacnamaí Teagaisc, nach dtiocfaidh mórán d’athrú ar phraghsanna mhairteoil na hÉireann an bhliain seo chugainn, ach measann sé go dtitfidh costas leasacháin agus beathaithe i 2009. Trian uachtarach d’fheirmeoirí arbhar faoi bhrabús Tá neamhchinnteacht mhór ann maidir le praghsanna arbhar le haghaidh 2009, ach bunaithe ar na praghsanna reatha maidir le trádáil sa todhchaí, glactar leis go mbeidh ardú ar phraghsanna arbhar i 2009 i gcomparáid le leibhéil phraghsanna na bliana seo.Gan ardú ar bith suntasach i bpraghsanna arbhar, nó ísliú ar bith i gcostais ionchuir, beidh corrlach glan réamh-mheasta don ghnáth-tháirgeoir i 2009 diúltach. Dúirt Fiona Thorne as Teagasc go meastar nach ndéanfaidh ach an trian uachtarach de tháirgeoirí corrlach dearfach as arbhair an bhliain seo chugainn. Réamh-mheasann eacnamóirí Theagaisc go dtiocfaidh feabhas ar tháirgeadh caorach i 2009 de réir mar a thiteann costais ionchuir ó na leibhéil i mbliana atá níos airde. Tá Kevin Hanrahan ag réamh-mheas go mbeidh corrlach comhlán de €510 an chaora an heicteár i gcórais lár séasúir thalaimh ísil. Dúirt Trevor Donnellan as Teagasc go raibh ról lárnach ag costais ionchuir agus corrlaigh a chinntiú i 2008. Ba chóir go dtitfeadh caiteachas ionchuir i 2009, go háirithe i gcás beathaithe, leasacháin agus breosla, mar gheall ar phraghsanna ola agus arbhair atá ag titim. In earnáil na Foraoiseachta, in ainneoin gur tugadh isteach An Scéim um Chosaint na Timpeallachta Foraoise (FEPS), níl achar na foraoise nuaphlandáilte ag comhlíonadh spriocanna an rialtais go fóill.Go dtí deireadh Dheireadh Fómhair, bhí leibhéal na plandála nua ag 4,800 heicteár, a bhí go mór faoi sprioc an rialtais de 10,000 heicteár sa bhliain.Tháinig ardú dramatúil ar ghníomhaíocht tanúcháin foraoise agus líon na gceadúnas leagain a d’eisigh an tSeirbhís Foraoiseachta ag méadú ó 102 i 2005 go 692 i 2008. Dúirt speisialtóir foraoiseachta Theagaisc, Mary Ryan, gur tharla sé seo mar gheall ar dheiseanna nua margaíochta le haghaidh tanúcháin foraoise ar nós sliseanna adhmaid le haghaidh teasa, agus sliseanna adhmaid le haghaidh paistí leamhsháinne beostoc.