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Terminal value is the value of a company’s expected free cash flow beyond the period of explicit projected financial model. This tutorial focuses on ways in which Terminal Value is calculated in the context of Company Financial Model. - Why we calculate Terminal Value? - Why Terminal Value is important for Discounted Cash Flows - Terminal Value Concept - Terminal Value Calculations – Perpetuity Growth & Exit Multiple Method - Terminal Value Excel Example - Alibaba’s Terminal Value (using Perpetuity Growth Method) - Can Terminal Value ever be Negative? Useful Downloads – 1) Free Terminal Value Excel Templates (used in the post) and 2) Alibaba IPO Terminal Value Calculation Model Why we calculate Terminal Value Terminal value calculation is a key requirement of the Discounted Cash Flow. - It is very difficult to project the company’s financial statements showing how they would develop over a longer period of time. - The confidence level of financial statement projection diminishes exponentially for years which are way farther from today. - Also, macro economic conditions affecting the business and the country may change structurally - Therefore, we simplify and use certain average assumptions to find the value of the firm beyond the forecast period (called as “Terminal Value”) as provided by Financial Modeling. Following graph shows how to calculate Terminal Value Why Terminal Value is important for Discounted Cash Flows In this section, i have briefed the overall approach to performing the Discounted Cash Flows or DCF valuation of any company. Especially, please note Step # 3 where we calculate Terminal Value of the Firm to find the Fair value of Share. Step # 1: Create the Infrastructure (not discussed in this article) Prepare a blank excel sheet with Separate Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flows (last 5 years) Populate the historical financial statements (IS, BS, CF) and do the necessary adjustment for Non-recurring items (one time expenses or gains). Perform the Ratio Analysis for Historical years to understand the company Step #2: Project the Financial Statements and FCFF (not discussed in this article) - Forecasting of Income Statement (P&L) is most important for analysts. Hence, you must devote lot of time to this. In this, you need to read through the annual report and other documents to get a solid understanding of forecasting - It is advisable that you also read through other brokerage house research reports to understand how they have modeled sales numbers. - Forecast the financial statements for the next 5 years (explicit forecast period) – financial model - When you forecast the company’s financial statements, you must only project the financial statements of the company for the next 4-5 years and generally not beyond that. - We can theoretically project the financial statements for the next 100-200 years, however, if we do so, we introduce lot of volatility based on assumptions. Step #3: Find the fair Share Price of the Firm by discounting the FCFF and Terminal Value - Calculate FCFF for the next 5 years as derived from the Financial Model - Apply a suitable WACC (weighted average cost of capital) from the capital structure calculations. - Calculate the Present value of the Explicit Period FCFF - Calculate the Terminal Value of the Company (period beyond the Explicit Period) - Enterprise Value = Present alue (Explicit Period FCFF) + Present Value (Terminal Value) - Find Equity Value of the Firm after deducting Net Debt - Divide Equity Value of the Firm by the total number of shares to arrive at “Intrinsic Fair Value” of the company. - Recommend whether to “BUY” or “SELL” Terminal Value Concept An important assumption here is the “Going Concern” of the company. In other words, the company will not stop its business operations after a few years, however, it will continue to do business forever. The value of the firm (Enterprise Value) is basically the present value of all the future Free Cash Flows to Firm. We can represent Value of the firm using the formula below - t = time, WACC is weighted average cost of capital or discount rate, FCFF is the Free Cash Flows to Firm We can break the above formula into two parts 1) Present Value of Explicit forecast 2) Present Value of Terminal Value Terminal Value Calculations There are two approaches for calculating the Terminal Value of the Firm. Download the Terminal Value Excel Sheet for the example below - 1) Perpetuity Growth Method This method is the preferred method to calculate the Terminal Value of the firm. This method assumes that growth of the company will continue (stable growth rate) and the return on capital will be more than cost of capital. We discount the Free cash flow to firm beyond the projected years and find the Terminal Value. Using cool maths, we can simplify the formula as per below - Numerator of the above formula can also be written as FCFF (6) = FCFF (5) x (1+ growth rate) The revised formula is as follows - A reasonable estimate of the stable growth rate here is the GDP growth rate of the country. 2) Exit Multiple Method This approach uses the underlying assumption that market multiple basis is a fair approach to value a Businesses. A value is typically determined as a multiple of EBIT or EBITDA. For cyclical businesses, instead of the EBITDA or EBIT amount at the end year n, we use an average EBIT or EBITDA over the course of a cycle For example, if metals and mining sector is trading at 8 times the EV/EBITDA multiple, then the terminal value of the company implied using this method would be 8 x EBITDA of the company. Terminal Value Calculation Example in Excel In this example, we calculate the fair value of the stock using the two terminal value calculation approaches discussed above. You can download the Terminal Value Excel template for the example below - In addition to the above information, you have the following information - - Cash = $50 - Number of shares = 100 Find the per share fair value of the stock using the two proposed terminal value calculation method Share Price Calculation – using Perpetuity Growth Method for Terminal Value Step 1 - Calculate the NPV of the Free Cash Flow to Firm for the explicit forecast period (2014-2018) Step 2 - Calculate the Terminal Value of the Stock (at the end of 2018) using Perpetuity Growth method Step 3 - Calculate the Present Value of the Terminal Value Step 4 - Calculate the Enterprise Value and the Share Price Please note that in this example, Terminal Value contribution towards Enterprise value is 78%! This is no exception. Generally you will note that the Terminal Value contribution is between 60-80% of the total value. Share Price Calculation – using Exit Multiple Method for Terminal Value Step 1 - Calculate the NPV of the Free Cash Flow to Firm for the explicit forecast period (2014-2018). Please refer to the above method, where we have already completed this step. Step 2 - Calculate the Terminal Value of the Stock (at the end of 2018) using Exit Multiple Method. Let us assume that in this industry, the average companies are trading at 7x EV/EBITDA multiple. We can apply this very same multiple to find the terminal value of this stock. Step 3 – Calculate the Present Value of the Terminal Value Step 4 - Calculate the Enterprise Value and the Share Price Please note that in this example, Terminal Value contribution towards Enterprise value is 77%! With both the methods, we are getting share prices that are very close to each other. Sometimes, you may note large variations in the share prices and in that case, you need to validate your assumptions to investigate such large difference in share prices using the two methodologies. Alibaba’s Terminal Value (using Perpetuity Growth Method) You may download Alibaba’s Financial Model from here. Below diagram details the free cash flow to firm of Alibaba and the approach to find the fair valuation of the firm. Valuation of Alibaba = Present Value of FCFF (2015-2022) + Present Value of FCFF (2023 until infinite “Terminal Value”) Step 1 – Calculate the NPV of the Free Cash flow to Firm of Alibaba for the explicit period (2015-2022) Step 2 – Calculate the Terminal value of Alibaba at the end of year 2022 – In this DCF model, we have used the Perpetuity Growth method to calculate the Terminal Value of Alibaba Step 3. Calculate the Net Present Value of the Terminal Value. Step 4 – Calculate the Enterprise Value and Fair Share Price of Alibaba Please note that Terminal Value contributes approximately 72% of the total Enterprise Value in case of Alibaba Can Terminal Value be Negative? Theoretically YES, Practically NO! Theoretically, this can happen when Terminal value is calculated using the perpetuity growth method In the formula above, if we assume WACC < growth rate, then the Terminal Value derived from the formula will be Negative. This is very difficult to digest as a high growth company is now showing a negative terminal value just because of the formula used. However, this high growth rate assumption is incorrect. We cannot assume that a company is going to grow at a very high rate until infinite. If this is the case, then this company will attract all the capital available in the world. Eventually, the company would become the entire economy and all people working for this company (Awesome, unfortunately this is unlikely!) When doing valuation, a negative terminal value doesn’t exist practically. However, if the company is in huge losses and is going to bankrupt in the future, the equity value will become zero. Another case could be if company’s product is becoming obsolete like the typewriters or pagers or Blackberry(?). Here also, you may land up in a situation where equity value may literally become closer to zero. Conclusion Terminal Value is a very important concept in Discounted Cash Flows as it accounts for more than 60%-80% of the total valuation of the firm. You should put special attention in assuming the growth rates (g), discount rates (WACC) and the multiples (EV/EBITDA or EV/EBIT). It is also helpful to calculate the terminal value using the two methods (perpetuity growth method and exit multiple method) and validate the assumptions used. What’s Next? If you learned something new or enjoyed the post, please leave a comment below. Let me know what you think. Many thanks and take care. Happy Learning!
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Is é luach Críochfort an luach na cuideachta a a súil sreabhadh airgid saor in aisce beyond the period of explicit projected financial model. This tutorial focuses on ways in which Terminal Value is calculated in the context of Company Financial Model. – - Cén fáth linn a ríomh Luach Terminal? - Cén fáth go Críochfort Luach tábhachtach do Sreabhadh Airgid lascainithe - Críochfort Luach Coincheap - Ríomhaireachtaí Luach Terminal – Suthaineacht Fás & Scoir Modh Il - Críochfort Luach Excel Sampla - Críochfort Luach Alibaba (ag baint úsáide as Modh Fás suthaineacht) - An féidir Críochfort Luach a bheith Diúltach riamh? Íosluchtuithe Úsáideacha – 1) Teimpléid Excel Críochfort Luach Saor in Aisce (a úsáidtear sa phost) agus 2) Samhail Ríomh alibaba IPO Críochfort Luach Cén fáth linn a ríomh Luach Terminal Is é luach a ríomh Críochfort riachtanas lárnach den Sreabhadh Airgid lascainithe. - Tá sé an-deacair chun tionscadal ráitis airgeadais na cuideachta a léiríonn conas a bheadh siad a fhorbairt thar thréimhse níos faide ama. - An leibhéal muiníne ráitis airgeadais a laghdaíonn teilgean exponentially ar feadh na mblianta atá ar bhealach níos faide ó lá atá inniu ann. - Chomh maith leis sin, coinníollacha eacnamaíocha macra isteach ar an ngnó agus an tír is féidir a athrú ó thaobh struchtúir de - Dá bhrí sin,, muid a shimpliú agus a úsáid toimhdí meán áirithe a fháil ar an luach an ghnólachta thar an tréimhse tuartha (ar a dtugtar mar “Luach Terminal”) mar a fhoráiltear le Modeling Airgeadais. Tar éis graf léiríonn conas Luach Críochfort a ríomh Cén fáth go Críochfort Luach tábhachtach do Sreabhadh Airgid lascainithe San alt seo,, I have eolas ar an gcur chuige foriomlán feidhmiú na Sreabhadh Airgid lascainithe nó luacháil DCF aon chuideachta. Go háirithe, tabhair faoi deara Céim # 3 where we calculate Terminal Value of the Firm to find the Fair value of Share. Céim # 1: Cruthaigh an Bonneagar (Ní pléadh san Airteagal seo) Ullmhaigh bileog fheabhas bán le Ráiteas Ioncaim ar leith, Clár Comhardaithe agus na sreafaí airgid (caite 5 bliana) Na ráitis airgeadais stairiúil populate (IS, BS, CF) agus a dhéanamh ar an coigeartú is gá chun míreanna neamh-athfhillteacha (ceann amháin costais nó na gnóchain am). A dhéanamh ar an Anailís Cóimheas do na blianta Stairiúil chun tuiscint a fháil ar an gcuideachta Céim #2: Project the Financial Statements and FCFF (Ní pléadh san Airteagal seo) - Réamhaisnéis na Ráiteas Ioncaim (P&L) is tábhachtaí do anailísithe. Dá bhrí sin, ní mór duit go leor ama a chaitheamh ar seo. Sa, is gá duit a léamh tríd an tuarascáil bhliantúil agus na doiciméid eile a fháil tuiscint láidir de réamhaisnéis - Tá sé inmholta go léann tú chomh maith, trí thuarascálacha taighde teach bróicéireachta eile chun tuiscint a fháil ar líon díolacháin conas mar a modeled. - Réamhaisnéis na ráitis airgeadais don chéad 5 bliana (tréimhse tuartha follasach) – samhail airgeadais - Nuair a réamhaisnéis tú ráitis airgeadais na cuideachta, ní mór duit a tionscadal ach ráitis airgeadais na cuideachta don chéad 4-5 bliana d'aois agus go ginearálta ní níos faide ná sin. - Is féidir linn a tionscadal teoiriciúil na ráitis airgeadais don chéad 100-200 bliana, áfach, má dhéanann muid chomh, againn go leor luaineacht a thabhairt isteach atá bunaithe ar bhoinn tuisceana. Céim #3: Faigh an Praghas Scair cothrom na Ghnólachta trí lascainiú an FCFF agus Críochfort Luach - Ríomh FCFF haghaidh an chéad cheann 5 bliana mar a dhíorthaítear ó an tSamhail Airgeadais - Cuir WACC oiriúnach (meánchostas ualaithe de chaipiteal) ó na ríomhanna struchtúr caipitil. - Ríomh Luach reatha na Tréimhse follasach FCFF - Ríomh Luach Críochfort na Cuideachta (tréimhse níos faide ná an tréimhse follasach) - Luach Fiontar = achar láthair (Go sonrach Tréimhse FCFF) + Luach Reatha (Luach Terminal) - Faigh Luach Cothromais an Ghnólachta ndiaidh Glanfhiach asbhaint - Roinn Luach Cothromas an Ghnólachta a roinnt ar líon iomlán na scaireanna chun teacht ar "intreacha Luach Cóir" de chuid na cuideachta. - Mholadh cé acu a "cheannach" nó "dhíol" Críochfort Luach Coincheap An important assumption here is the “Gnóthas Leantach” de chuid na cuideachta. I bhfocail eile,, Ní bheidh an chuideachta a stopadh a chuid oibríochtaí gnó tar éis cúpla bliain, áfach, beidh sé ar aghaidh ag gnó a dhéanamh go deo. An luach na gnólachta (Luach Fiontar) go bunúsach luach reatha de na Airgid Saor todhchaí shreabha a Gnólacht. Is féidir linn a ionadaíocht Luach an ghnólachta ag baint úsáide as an bhfoirmle thíos - t = am, Tá WACC meánchostas ualaithe de chaipiteal nó lascaine an ráta, Is FCFF Sreabhadh Airgid an saor in aisce a ghnólacht Is féidir linn a bhriseadh an fhoirmle thuas ina dhá chuid 1) Luach Reatha na réamhaisnéise follasach 2) Present Value of Terminal Value Ríomhaireachtaí Luach Terminal Tá dhá chur chuige maidir le Luach Críochfort an gnólacht ríomh. Íoslódáil an Bileog Terminal Luach Excel don sampla thíos - 1) Modh Fás suthaineacht Tá an modh seo an modh is fearr chun an Luach Críochfort an ghnólachta ríomh. Glacann an modh go mbeidh fás ar an chuideachta ar aghaidh (ráta fáis cobhsaí) agus beidh an toradh ar chaipiteal a bheith níos mó ná costas caipitil. Lascaine muid an sreabhadh airgid saor in aisce go daingean thar na blianta réamh-mheasta agus teacht ar an Luach Críochfort. Ag baint úsáide as matamaitic fionnuar, is féidir linn a shimpliú an fhoirmle de réir thíos - Is féidir le uimhreoir an fhoirmle thuas a scríobh freisin mar FCFF (6) = FCFF (5) x (1+ ráta fáis) Is é an fhoirmle athbhreithnithe mar seo a leanas - Tá meastachán réasúnta ar an ráta fáis cobhsaí anseo ar an ráta fáis OTI na tíre. 2) Scoir Modh Il This approach uses the underlying assumption that market multiple basis is a fair approach to value a Businesses. A value is typically determined as a multiple of EBIT or EBITDA. Do ghnólachtaí timthriallach, instead of the EBITDA or EBIT amount at the end year n, we use an average EBIT or EBITDA over the course of a cycle Mar shampla, má tá miotail agus mianadóireachta earnáil trádáil ar 8 uair an EV / il EBITDA, ansin an luach críochfort de chuid na cuideachta intuigthe ag baint úsáide as an modh seo a bheadh 8 x EBITDA de chuid na cuideachta. Terminal Value Calculation Example in Excel Sa sampla seo, ríomh againn cur chuige an luach cóir an stoic ag baint úsáide as an dá luach a ríomh teirminéil a pléadh thuas. Is féidir leat a íoslódáil Críochfort Luach Excel teimpléad don sampla thíos - Chomh maith leis an eolas thuas, Tá an t-eolas seo a leanas duit - - Fiach = $100 - Airgead Tirim = $50 - Líon na scaireanna; 100 Faigh an aghaidh na scaire luach cóir an stoic baint úsáide as an modh ríofa dá críochluach molta Ríomh Comhroinn Praghas – ag baint úsáide as Modh Fás suthaineacht do Luach Teirminéil Céim 1 - Ríomh NPV an Shreabhadh Airgid Saor in aisce a FIRM don tréimhse réamhaisnéise follasach (2014-2018) Céim 2 - Ríomh Luach Críochfort na Stock (ag deireadh na 2018) ag baint úsáide as modh go suthain Fás Céim 3 - Ríomh Luach Reatha na Luach Críochfort Céim 4 - Ríomh an Luach Fiontar agus an Share Praghas Tabhair faoi deara go sa sampla seo, Tá ranníocaíocht Luach Críochfort leith luach Fiontraíochta 78%! Is é seo aon eisceacht. Go ginearálta beidh tú faoi deara go bhfuil an méid a chuireann Críochfort Luach idir 60-80% de luach iomlán. Ríomh Comhroinn Praghas – ag baint úsáide as Scoir Modh Il do Luach Teirminéil Céim 1 - Ríomh NPV an Shreabhadh Airgid Saor in aisce a FIRM don tréimhse réamhaisnéise follasach (2014-2018). Féach ar an modh thuasluaite, áit a bhfuil i gcrích againn cheana féin an chéim seo. Céim 2 - Ríomh Luach Críochfort na Stock (ag deireadh na 2018) ag baint úsáide as Scoir Modh Il. Lig dúinn glacadh leis go sa tionscal seo, na cuideachtaí meán ag trádáil ag 7x EV / EBITDA il. Is féidir linn iarratas a seo il-céanna a fháil ar an luach críochfort an stoic. Céim 3 – Ríomh Luach Reatha na Luach Críochfort Céim 4 - Ríomh an Luach Fiontar agus an Share Praghas Tabhair faoi deara go sa sampla seo, Tá ranníocaíocht Luach Críochfort leith luach Fiontraíochta 77%! Leis an dá na modhanna, táimid ag fáil scairphraghsanna atá an-ghar dá chéile. Uaireanta, is féidir leat faoi deara éagsúlachtaí móra sna praghsanna a roinnt agus sa chás sin, is gá duit a bhailíochtú do chuid boinn tuisceana chun imscrúdú a difríocht mhór den sórt sin i bpraghsanna a roinnt ag baint úsáide as an dá modheolaíochtaí. Críochfort Luach Alibaba (ag baint úsáide as Modh Fás suthaineacht) You may download Alibaba’s Financial Model from anseo. Thíos mionsonraí léaráid sreabhadh airgid saor in aisce do gnólacht Alibaba agus an cur chuige a fháil ar an luacháil cothrom an ghnólachta. Valuation of Alibaba = Luach Reatha na FCFF (2015-2022) + Luach Reatha na FCFF (2023 go dtí go gan teorainn “Luach Terminal”) Céim 1 – Ríomh NPV an sreabhadh airgid saor in aisce do Gnólacht de Alibaba don tréimhse follasach (2015-2022) Céim 2 – Ríomh luach Críochfort na Alibaba ag deireadh na bliana 2022 – Sa tsamhail DCF, ní mór dúinn a úsáidtear an modh go suthain Fáis chun an Luach Críochfort de Alibaba ríomh Céim 3. Ríomh an Luach Glan Láithreach ar an Luach Críochfort. Céim 4 – Ríomh an Praghas Fiontraíochta Luach agus Cóir Scair de Alibaba Tabhair faoi deara go gcuireann Críochfort Luach thart 72% Luach Fiontraíochta iomlán i gcás na Alibaba An féidir Críochfort Luach a bheith Diúltach? Teoiriciúil TÁ, Praiticiúil NÍL! Teoiriciúil, Is féidir seo tarlú nuair a bhíonn luach Críochfort a ríomh ag baint úsáide as an modh fás suthain San fhoirmle thuas, if we assume WACC < ráta fáis, ansin beidh an Luach Críochfort a dhíorthaítear ó na foirmle a Diúltach. Tá sé seo an-deacair a díolama mar chuideachta fás ard ag taispeáint anois ag luach teirminéal diúltach díreach mar gheall ar an fhoirmle a úsáidtear. Mar sin féin, tá an toimhde ráta fáis ard mícheart. Ní féidir linn glacadh leis go bhfuil cuideachta ag dul chun fás ag ráta an-ard go dtí teorainn. Más é seo an cás, ansin beidh an comhlacht seo a mhealladh go léir an caipiteal atá ar fáil ar fud an domhain. Faoi dheireadh, bheadh an chuideachta a bheith ar an eacnamaíocht ar fad agus gach duine atá ag obair don chuideachta (Awesome, ar an drochuair ní dócha!) Nuair a dhéanamh luacháil, Ní le luach teirminéal diúltach ann go praiticiúil. Mar sin féin, má tá an chuideachta i caillteanas ollmhór agus tá sé ag dul a féimheach sa todhchaí, Beidh an luach cothromais a bheith náid. D'fhéadfadh cás eile a bheith má tá an táirge na cuideachta éirí as feidhm ar nós na clóscríobháin nó glaoirí nó Blackberry(?). Anseo freisin, Is féidir leat talún suas i staid ina bhféadfadh luach cothromais a bheith literally níos gaire do náid. A thabhairt i gcrích Luach Terminal Sreabhadh coincheap an-tábhachtach i airgid lascainithe mar cuntais sé ar feadh níos mó ná 60%-80% de luacháil iomlán an ghnólachta. Ba chóir duit a chur aird ar leith i glacadh leis an rátaí fáis (g), rátaí lascaine (WACC) agus na iolrach (EV / EBITDA nó EV / EBIT). Tá sé ina chuidiú freisin chun an críochluach a ríomh ag baint úsáide as an dá mhodh (Modh fás go suthain agus modh imeachta il) agus a bhailíochtú na toimhdí a úsáideadh. Cad Aghaidh? Má fhoghlaim tú rud éigin nua nó taitneamh as an bpost, please leave a comment below. Bíodh a fhios agam cad a cheapann tú. Raibh míle maith agaibh agus cúram a ghlacadh. Foghlaim Shona!