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New TG4 Opinion Poll in Donegal shows FF may thwart SF’s ambitous Dáil hopes A new opinion poll carried out for TG4 shows that Fianna Fáil is poised to win two seats in Donegal and may well upset Sinn Féin’s plans to take three seats in that newly merged 5 seat constituency. Veteran FF candidate Pat the Cope Gallagher looks set to make a comeback to Dáil Éireann and there is even a possibility that Sinn Féin might lose one of the two seats it held in the county coming into this election, depending on transfers in the later stages of the count. This Ipsos MRBI opinion poll on Donegal voters’ intentions was commissioned for the the channel’s Vóta 2016 programme and broadcast this evening (Embargo 7.30pm). It indicates that outgoing Gaeltacht Minister of State Joe McHugh has a good chance of retaining a single seat for Fine Gael with outgoing Independent deputy Thomas Pringle fighting stiff competition from the bigger parties and other non-party candidates for the last seat. Donegal Constituency Party Support (Number 1 Preference Vote) Donegal Constituency Individual Candidate Support (Number 1 Preference Vote) With over two weeks left to polling day, it is too early to make definitive pronouncements but FF is performing well ahead of its national vote and, based on these figures, may well take two seats. With FF polling this well, it is by no means certain that SF will take a second seat, which some commentators have been confidently predicting in view of that party’s loyal following in the county and SF’s progress in national polls during the lifetime of the last Dáil. SF looks set to take a seat on the first count with Pearse Doherty on 19%. This is two points over quota and subsequent transfers could make all the difference to Pádraig Mac Lochlainn’s chances of getting a second seat for that party at a later stage of the count. Charlie McConalogue, on 17%, looks set to take the second seat and the first seat for FF. The third and fourth seats look like going to Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) and Joe McHugh, (FG), both with 13% of the vote, although neither candidate reaches the quota and will have to rely on transfers. Pat The Cope Gallagher, a former Minister of State and MEP and long-standing politician in Donegal, should have the profile to attract sufficient transfers, while Joe McHugh looks set to benefit from transfers from FG running mate, Paddy Harte, who on 4% first preference votes looks certain to be eliminated. Calling the fifth seat is nigh on impossible. A number of candidates are clustered together – Pádraig Mac Lochlainn, (SF, 9%), Thomas Pringle (Ind, 7%) and Dessie Shiels (Ind, 7%). If Pearse Doherty can poll comfortably above the quota, Pádraig Mac Lochlainn may build up enough of a lead to be uncatchable, with the additional help of transfers from SF’s third candidate, Gary Doherty, on just 2%. However, if it goes down to the wire, Thomas Pringle and Dessie Shiels, both Independents, will be relatively transfer-friendly and could be there to the bitter end. Note to Editors: This is the first of TG4’s three constituency opinion polls in key constituencies along the west coast. Next week’s Vóa 2016 (7pm Tues 16 February) will report the Ipsos MRBI opinion poll being caried out in the Kerry constituency. Vóta 2016 news anchor Emer Ní Chonaola is available for interview on the findings of this Donegal opinion poll. Contact Linda Ní Ghríofa 091 505228 linda.ni.ghriofa@tg4.ie (Note on Survey Methodology: This survey was conducted in the Donegal constituency on behalf of TG4 by Ipsos MRBI. among a sample of 500 adults aged 18 upwards. Interviewing took place on Thursday 4th and Friday 5th February. The survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by The Marketing Society of Ireland and by ESOMAR. Interviews were conducted via CATI [Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing]. Respondents were selected from a database of both landline and mobile numbers created via Random Digit Dialling. A survey sample of 500 attaches a margin of error of up to plus or minus 4 percentage points).
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Straitéis togcháin Fhianna Fáil níos éifeachtaí na Sinn Féin i nDún na nGall Torthaí suimiúla ar fáil ó Phobalbhreith nua TG4 D’fhéadfadh Sinn Féin a bheith thíos lena straitéis triúr iarrthóirí a chur chun páirce i nDáilcheantar chónasctha nua Dhún na nGall, de réir na dtorthaí ó phobalbhreith nua a choimisiúnaigh agus a chraol an clar Vóta 2016 ar TG4 tráthnóna. Tugann an pobalbhreith údarásach seo, a rinne an comhlacht aitheanta MRBI, go bhfuil seans láidir ag Fianna Fáil dhá shuíochán a bhuachan sa Dáilcheantar nua 5 shuíochán san Olltogchán agus go mbeidh Pat Cóp Ó Gallchóir ar filleadh ar Dháil Éireann ag deireadh na míosa. Go deimhin, tá fianaise áirithe sa bpobalbhreith go mbeidh brú ar Shinn Féin an dara Teachta Dála a thabhairt chun na Dála as Dún na nGall, bíodh is go raibh beirt Theachtaí aige le chúig bhliana anuas nuair a bhí an contae roinnte ina dhá Dháilcheantar. Léiríonn na figiúirí gur dóigh go dtoghfar Joe McHugh d’Fhine Gael, an té a bhí ina Aire Stáit Gaeltachta sa dara leath de thréimhse na Dála seo caite. Beidh sé ina dhian-choimhlint don suíochán deireanach, de réir na bhfigiúirí seo, agus Thomas Pringle, Teachta neamhspleách le chúig bhliana faoi bhrú ó neamhspleáigh eile agus ó na páirtithe móra freisin. Tacaíocht na bPáirtithe i nDáilcheantar Dhún na nGall (Vóta Uimhir 1) Tacaíocht na nIarrthóirí (Vóta Uimhir 1) Tá coicís fágtha sa bhfeachtas Olltoghcháin agus is mairg a dhéanfadh tuar críochnúil. Ach is léir go bhfuil FF go maith chun tosaigh sa Dáilcheantar seo ar a scair náisiúnta reatha. Bunaithe ar na figiúiri áitiúla sin, d’fhéadfadh an páirtí dhá shuíochán a bhuachan i nDún na nGall. Agus FF ag déanamh chomh maith sin, ní thig le SF a bheith cinnte den dara suíochán, toradh a bhí á thuar ag go leor tráchtairí i bhfianaise na hard-tacaíochta atá ag SF sa gcontae agus an dul chun cinn ina leibhéil tacaíochta náisiúnta le chúig bhliana anuas. Toghfar Piaras Ó Dochartaigh (SF) don chéad suíochán sa Dáilcheantar agus 19% den vóta aige, chun cinn ar an gcuóta. Beidh a chomghleacaí Pádraig Mac Lochlainn ag súil le vótaí aistrithe ón bhfuílleach sin níos deireanai sa gcomhaireamh agus braithfidh cinniúint Mhic Lochlainn ar a líon sin, mar aon le roinnt cúinsí eile. De réir na dtorthaí sa bpobalbhreith seo, is ag Charlie McConalogue (FF) a bheidh an dara suíochán agus 17% den vóta chéad rogha aige. Bheadh an triú agus an ceathrú suíochán ag Pat The Cope Ó Gallchóir (FF) agus ag Joe McHugh, (FG), a bhfuil 13% den vóta acu ar aon. Beidh an bheirt ag brath ar aistrithe ach bheifí ag súil go seasfaidh a cháil ar fud an chontae agus a sheirbhís fhada mar Theachta Dála, Aire Stáit agus mar Fheisire Eorpach don Ghallchórach lena thabhairt slán agus go dtiocfaidh Joe McHugh slán le McuMcmabharfaidh tacaíocht aistrithe ó vótaí Phaddy Harte, a chomhghleacaí atá ag seasamh den chéad uair. Beidh an choimhlint don cúigiu suíochán i nDún na nGall thar a bheith teann. Tá seans air ag Pádraig Mac Lochlainn, (SF, 9%), Thomas Pringle (NS 7%) agus Dessie Shiels (Ind, 7%). Braithfidh go leor ar an ord ina gcuirtear iarrthóirí bhun an liosta as an áireamh – agus ar an bhfuílleach vótaí bheith ag Piaras Ó Dochartaigh (agus iarrthóir eile SF, Gary Doherty) do Mhac Lochlainn. D’fhéadfadh na neamhspleáigh Thomas Pringle agus Dessie Shiels, a bheith fós san iomaíocht ag deireadh an chomhairimh. Nóta d’eagarthóirí: Is é seo an chéad cheann de shraith 3 phobalbhreith atá coimisiúnaithe ag TG4 do Dháilcheantair ar chósta an Iarthair. An tseachtain seo chugainn ar Vóta 2016 ( 7pm Máirt 16 Feabhra) craolfar na torthaí phobalbhreith nua MRBI ar Dháilcheantar Chiarraí. Tá Ailbhe Ó Monacháin, comhfhreagraí Vóta 2016 i nDún na nGall, ar fáil d’agallaimh ar an bpobalbhreith nua seo sa Dáilcheantar. Teagmháil: Linda Ní Ghríofa 091 505228. linda.ni.ghriofa@tg4.ie Nóta ar mhodheolaíocht na pobalbhreithe: Sampla 500 duine (18+ bliain) a bhí ag an bpobalbhreith seo a rinne an comhlacht Ipsos MRBI do TG4. Rinneadh na hagallaimh Déardaoin 4 agus Aoine 5 Feabhra i suirbhé atá de réir na dtreoirlínte atá leagtha síos ag an Marketing Society of Ireland agus ESOMAR. Rinneadh na hagallaimh le CATI [Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing]. Roghnaíodh na rannpháirithe ó bhunachar sonraí comhdhéanta d’uimhreacha talún agus soghluaiste, bunachar a cruthaíodh le Diallú Randamach Digiteach (Random Digit Dialling. Bíonn lámháil earráide móide/lúide 4% i gceiste le suirbhí bunaithe ar shampla 500 duine).