http___www.tg4.ie_ga_corporate_preas_press-releases_2016-2_23-02-16__1.xml
2.1 3.1 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.2 6.1 7.1 8.1 8.2 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 10.1 10.2 10.3 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.1 12.2 12.3 13.1 13.2 14.1 14.2 15.1 16.1 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6
New TG4 Election Poll shows Fine Gael holding on in Galway West Sinn Féin set go gain as Labour struggle to hold seat A new opinion poll for TG4 shows that Fine Gael may well succeed in holding on to two seats in the extended, crowded and keenly contested 5 seat Galway West constituency, for decades a Fianna Fáil stronghold. Sinn Féin has a good chance of winning a seat at the expense of Labour with the final seat looking set to be a cliff-hanger, as often before. Full details of the TG4 Ipsos MRBI opinion poll on Galway West voters’ intentions, commissioned for the channel’s Vóta 2016 programme, were broadcast this evening on TG4 at 7pm. The details are as follows: Galway West Constituency Party Support (Number 1 Preference Vote) Galway West Individual Candidate Support (Number 1 Preference Vote) (There are four other candidates standing in this constituency. In this opinion poll, they had a cumulative 1% share of the vote). Commentary: The Galway West constituency is always hotly contested. Last time less than 3,000 votes separated the leading seven candidates. Since then, the constituency boundaries have been extended and it now also includes a portion of south Mayo. With 20 names on the ballot, the competition for seats in next Friday’s election will be even more intense. As ever, transfers will be vital as will the order in which various candidates are eliminated as the counts progress. The first two seats seem destined for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Seán Kyne of Fine Gael shares the lead with 13% of first reference votes, approaching a quota and he is almost certain to be returned to Dáil Éireann in 2016. Also on 13% is Éamon Ó Cuív, nearly guaranteeing the veteran Fianna Fáil stalwart and former Minister another Dáil term, with the help of transfers from one of his Fianna Fáil running mates if needed. While the FG share of the vote (30%) falls short of two quotas, a second seat for FG is likely here. John O’Mahony, on 11%, is the FG candidate next in line and is best positioned to take a second FG seat. While he is a Mayo man whose Dáil career to date has been as a deputy in his native county, he is well known in Galway too and widely respected as the football manager who steered that county to two All-Ireland Senior titles. He is also bringing some of his Mayo vote with him from that portion of the county that has now been added to the Galway West constituency. He will have transfers from the party’s other representative, Hildegard Naughton to bolster his chances. Additionally and if he needs them, he would likely benefit from transfers from Derek Nolan, if the Labour candidate and outgoing TD is eliminated. Sinn Féin’s Trevor Ó Clochartaigh looks set to build on his 2011 performance and will be in strong contention to take a seat at his second attempt. With 11% of first-preferences, this is a real possibility for him although transfers will be needed to reach the quota and Sinn Féin has traditionally struggled to attract significant transfers. It will be close. Independents Catherine Connolly (on 8%) and Noel Grealish (on 7%), together with Derek Nolan of Labour (on 6%) and Niall Ó Tuathail of the Social Democrats (on 6%) will likely battle it out for the final seat. Independents and smaller parties are always transfer-friendly, while Nolan may benefit from some Fine Gael transfers – the last seat is impossible to call at this stage. Note to Editors: In addition their voting intentions, this poll asked Galway voters about the importance they attached to a supplied list of national issues. Details of their responses will also be revealed on tonight’s Vóta 2016 programme. Máire T Ní Mhadaoin is available for interview on the findings of this Galway West opinion poll. Contact: Linda Ní Ghríofa 091 505228 linda.ni.ghriofa@tg4.ie (Survey Methodology: This survey was conducted among a sample of 515 adults aged 18 upwards in the Galway West Constituency on behalf of TG4 by Ipsos MRBI. Interviewing took place on the 18th and 19th of February. In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down AIMRO and by ESOMAR. 475 interviews were conducted via CATI (Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing). Respondents were selected from a database of both landline and mobile numbers created via Random Digit Dialling. The remaining 40 interviews were conducted face-to-face at four sampling points in the Ballinrobe area (Mayo county) the new portion of the Galway West Constituency).
2.1 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.1 6.1 7.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 11.1 11.2 12.1 12.2 13.1 13.2 14.1 15.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6
Fine Gael ag seasamh an fhóid ach Lucht Oibre faoi bhrú i nGaillimh Thiar SF go tréan san iomaíocht freisin agus sciob-sceab don 5ú suíochán Léiríonn pobalbhreith nua do TG4 go bhfuil seans maith ag Fine Gael dhá shuíochán Dála a bhuachan i nGaillimh Thiar san Olltoghchán ar an Aoine ach go mbeidh sé an-deacair ag an Lucht Oibre a shuíochán féin a choinneáil. Tugann an suirbhé seo, a rinne an comhlacht aitheanta taighde Ipsos MRBI don chlár Vóta 2016 a craoladh tráthnóna, le fios chomh maith go mbeidh suíochán ag Sinn Féin má éiríonn leis dóthain vótaí aistrithe a mhealladh. Seo na sonraí. Tacaíocht na bPáirtithe i nGaillimh Thiar (Vóta Uimhir 1) Tacaíocht na nIarrthóirí i nGaillimh Thiar (Vóta Uimhir 1) (Beidh ceathrar eile ar an bpáipéar ballóide san Olltoghchán sa Dáilcheantar seo. 1% eatarthu an tacaíocht a tuairiscíodh dóibh sa bpobalbhreith seo). Tráchtaireacht: Bíonn dian-iomaíocht sa Dáilcheantar 5 suíochán seo i gcónaí. Is mar sin a bhí in Olltoghchán 2011, tráth a raibh faoi bhun 3,000 vóta idir an seachtar ab airde ar an liosta sa gcéad chomhaireamh. Anois agus cuid de dheisceart Mhaigh Eo curtha isteach sa Dáilcheantar freisin agus le 20 iarrthóir ar an bpáipéar ballóide, beidh an choimhlint níos géire fós. Beidh na vótaí aistrithe tábhachtach agus an t-ord ina gcuirtear na hiarrthóirí is ísle as an áireamh cinniúnach dóibh sin atá fanta agus ag brath orthu. Is dóigh gur ag FF agus FG a bheidh an chéad dá shuíochán. Tá Seán Kyne (FG) ar dhuine de bheirt ar bharr an liosta is airde tacaíocht (13%). Beidh seans an-láidir aige-san agus ag an té atá ar chomh-mharc leis, Éamon Ó Cuív (FF) suíocháin a bhaint amach luath go maith sa gcomhaireamh. Tá de bhuntáiste acu beirt go bhfuil comhghleacaithe páirtí ag seasamh leo ar aon agus ba cheart gur leor a dtacaíocht siúd sin lena suíochán a chinntiú don bheirt. Cé nach bhfuil dhá chuóta bainte amach ag FG, de réir na pobalbhreithe seo, tá seans láidir ag an bpáirtí ar an dara suíochán agus is é John O’Mahony an té is dóiche a gheobhaidh é. Tá sé sa dara háit ó thaobh tacaíochta ag FG. Is i Maigh Eo a bhí sé ina Theachta Dála go dtí seo, agus beidh sé ag tabhairt leis roinnt vótaí ón gcontae chuig an Dáilcheantar seo freisin. Anuas air sin, tá meas agus gean air mar gurbh é an bainisteoir ar an fhoireann pheile an chontae a thug Craobh na hÉireann ar ais go Gaillimh faoi dhó. Beidh vótaí ag teacht chuige freisin óna chomhghleacaí páirtí, Hildegard Naughton (agus go fiú ó Derek Nolan an Lucht Oibre, sa gcás is go gcuirfí fear an Lucht Oibre as an áireamh). Tá ag éirí go maith le Trevor Ó Clochartaigh do Shinn Féin agus é ag tógáil ar an dúshraith a leag sé dó féin in Olltoghchán 2011. Bheifí ag súil go mbeadh seans aige ar an ceathrú suíochán an uair seo, cé nach leor ann féin an scair 11% atá aige agus go mbíonn sé doiligh ag SF vótaí aistrithe a mhealladh. Mar is iondúil i nGaillimh Thiar, beidh sé ina dhian-iomaíocht do na suíocháin dheireanacha agus beidh na Neamhspleáigh Catherine Connolly (8%), Noel Grealish (7%) mar aon le Derek Nolan (LO, 6%) agus Niall Ó Tuathail (DS 6%) ag troid go láidir go dtí an deireadh. Is mairg a dhéanfadh an suíochan deireanach a thuar. Nóta d’eagarthóirí: Sa mbreis ar cheisteanna faoina vótaí, chuir Ipsos MRBI ceist ar na vótóirí i gGaillimh Thiar faoi n na nithe is mó atá ag déanamh buartha dóibh. Beidh sonraí fúthu sin á nochtadh anocht freisin ar Vóta 2016. Tá Máire T Ní Mhadaoin, Vóta 2016 ar an suirbhé seo, ar fáil d’agallaimh ar an bpobalbhreith nua seo sa Dáilcheantar. Teagmháil: Linda Ní Ghríofa 091 505228 linda.ni.ghriofa@tg4.ie (Nóta ar mhodheolaíocht na phobailbhreithe: Sampla 515 duine (18+ bliain) a bhí ag an bpobalbhreith seo a rinne an comhlacht Ipsos MRBI do TG4. Rinneadh na hagallaimh Déardaoin 18 agus Aoine 19 Feabhra i suirbhé atá de réir na dtreoirlínte atá leagtha síos ag an Marketing Society of Ireland agus ESOMAR. Rinneadh 475 de na hagallaimh le CATI [Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing]. Roghnaíodh na rannpháirithe ó bhunachar sonraí comhdhéanta d’uimhreacha talún agus soghluaiste, bunachar a cruthaíodh le Diallú Randamach Digiteach (Random Digit Dialling). Rinneadh an 40 agallamh eile aghaidh ar aghaidh ag roinnt pointi samplála sa gcuid nua den Dáilcheantar seo i Maigh Eo. Bíonn lámháil earráide móide/lúide 4% i gceiste le suirbhí bunaithe ar shampla 500 duine).