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Irish Agriculture to Consolidate its Recent Growth through 2012 19 January 2012 Following two years of impressive growth, the Irish agriculture sector is set to consolidate its position in 2012, according to a study released by Teagasc today, 19 January 2012. The Teagasc Outlook 2012 report finds that prospects for Irish agriculture, while still broadly positive, are not as good as they were this time 12 months ago. The forecast for the sector as a whole remains highly dependent on circumstances in the wider EU and in the developing world. Attendees at the Teagasc Economics conference, taking place in Kilkenny today heard how higher agricultural commodity prices over the last two years have made most sectors of agriculture more profitable, and farmers around the world have responded by increasing production. However, with the EU likely to enter recession for a period in 2012 and the US economy also struggling, demand for agricultural commodities in advanced economies may weaken in 2012. Collectively these factors suggest that most agricultural commodity prices are likely to fall slightly in 2012. Teagasc economist Trevor Donnellan said that little change is expected in overall production costs for most sub sectors of agriculture, with lower feed prices being offset by increased fertilizer prices. He said that overall, most Irish farmers are likely to experience a decline in profitability in 2012, but the sector will remain in a much better position than it was at the onset of the recession. Teagasc points out that, the pig sector, which endured considerable losses in 2011 due to high pig feed prices, is likely to be an exception to the general trend for 2012. Teagasc pigs specialist Michael McKeon said that profitability in the pig sector is set to be restored in 2012 as pig prices rise and the cost of feed decreases. Farmers are becoming used to volatility in the price of farm produce and their costs of production, and this pattern is set to continue. An added complication for prices in 2012 could come in the form of exchange rate fluctuations, with much speculation as to whether the euro will retain its value against other major currencies, such as sterling and the US dollar. A weaker euro would make Irish exports more competitive, but would also generate inflation in the price of imported farm inputs such as fertilizer and fuel.
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Talmhaíocht na hÉireann chun an borradh a bhí aici le gairid a chomhdhlúthú le linn 2012 19 Eanáir 2012 I ndiaidh dhá bhliain d’fhás mhórthaibhseach, táthar ag súil go ndéanfaidh earnáil na talmhaíochta in Éirinn comhdhlúthú ar an riocht ina bhfuil sí in 2012, de réir staidéir a scaoileadh ag Teagasc inniu, 19 Eanáir 2012. Léiríonn torthaí thuairisc Ionchas Theagasc 2012 nach bhfuil ionchais do thalmhaíocht na hÉireann chomh maith is a bhí 12 mhí ó shin, cé go bhfuil siad dearfach go ginearálta. Tá réamhfhaisnéis na hearnála fós ag braith go mór ar chúinsí san AE níos leithne agus sa domhan i mbéal forbartha. Chuala na daoine a bhí i láthair ag Comhdháil Eacnamaíochta Teagaisc a tharla i gCill Chainnigh inniu go bhfuil an chuid is mó de hearnálacha na talmhaíochta níos brábusaí de bharr phraghsanna thrachtearraí talmhaíochta níos airde le dhá bhliain anuas, agus de chionn seo mhéadaigh feirmeoirí timpeall na cruinne a gcuid táirgeachta. Ach anois, agus seans ann go dtitfidh an tAE isteach i gcúlú eacnamaíochta ar feadh tréimhse in 2012, agus géilleagar na SA ag streachailt chomh maith, féadfaidh éileamh ar thráchtearraí talmhaíochta dul i laige sna hard-ghéilleagair in 2012. I dteannta a chéile, tugann na tosca seo le tuiscint go bhfuil seans maith ann go dtitfidh an chuid is mó de phraghsanna thráchtearraí talmhaíochta beagán in 2012. Dúirt Trevor Donnellan, eacnamaí Teagaisc, nach bhfuiltear ag súil le mórán athraithe i gcostais táirgeachta iomlána le haghaidh na coda is mó d’fho-earnálacha talmhaíochta, toisc go bhfuil praghsanna beatha níos ísle á bhfritháireamh ag praghsanna leasacháin méadaithe. Dúirt sé go ginearálta go bhfuil seans ann go mbeidh laghdú brábúsachta ag an gcuid is mó d’fheirmeoirí in Éirinn in 2012, ach fós féin beidh an earnáil i riocht níos fearr ná mar a bhí ag tús an chúlú eacnamaíochta. Deir Teagasc go mbeidh earnáil na muice, a raibh caillteanais mhóra aici in 2011 de bharr praghsanna arda ar bheatha mhuice, ina heisceacht ó thaobh na treochta ginearálta in 2012 de. Dúirt seaneolaí muice Teagaisc, Michael McKeon, go bhfuiltear ag tuar go dtiocfaidh feabhas ar bhrábúsacht earnáil na muice in 2012 chomh fada is atá praghasanna muice ag méadú ag an am céanna is atá costas beatha ag laghdú. Tá feirmeoirí ag éirí cleachta le luaineacht i bpraghsanna an toradh feirme agus ina gcostais táirgeachta agus tá an patrún seo le dul ar aghaidh. D’fhéadfadh rudaí a bheith níos casta arís in 2012 de bharr luaineachtaí an ráta malairte agus tá go leor tuairmíochta ann faoi chumas an euro a luach a choinneáil i gcoinne mórairgedraí eile, amhail an steirling agus dollar na SA. Dá mbeadh an euro níos laige, bheadh easpórtálaithe na hÉireann níos iomaíche, ach tharraingeodh sé sin boilsciú i bpraghas na n-ionchur feirme impórtáilte cosúil le leasacháin agus bhreosla.