http___www.teagasc.ie_gaeilge_news_2011_201101-20_g.asp_1.xml
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Positive Outlook for Agricultural Prices but Input Costs Rising 20 January 2011 Recovery in the global economy is boosting food demand and continuing difficulties with supply from the southern hemisphere coupled with increasing costs of production means that the outlook for the vast majority of agricultural commodities in 2011 is positive. This was the clear message from the Teagasc Agricultural Economics Conference which is taking place in Portlaoise today, Thursday, 20 January. Speaking at the conference Dr Cathal O Donohue, Head of the Teagasc Rural Economy and Development Programme, said: "2010 was a very good year for Irish farmers with output values up for all sectors and the average family farm income for 2010 is expected to return to 2008 levels, an approximate 40 per cent increase on the 2009 level. Food exports have been very strong, with agri-food exports growing faster than other exporting sectors." Thia Hennessy, Head of the Teagasc Agricultural Economics and Farm Surveys Department said: "The outlook for 2011 is for continued buoyancy for most commodities, however rising fertilizer, fuel and animal feed prices are likely to negate some of this increase, leaving some farm systems no better off in 2011. Only dairy farmers are forecast to have sufficient increases in output prices to offset the increase in input prices." 2010 was described as a bumper year for dairy farmers with production and prices up. The outlook for milk prices for 2011 is good, with strong demand forecast on international markets. Increasing fertilizer and concentrate feed prices are likely to dampen some of the milk price increase. However farm incomes for dairy farms are forecast to be at least as good as 2010 levels this year. Delegates at the Teagasc conference heard how gains were made in cattle prices in 2010 but that these gains were not sufficient to boost cattle farm incomes. The outlook for cattle prices is good and annual average prices are expected to increase by 5 per cent in 2011, however this will not be sufficient to offset rising input costs. Pig producers are suffering from their current exposure to high feed costs. At the moment costs of production are outstripping the prices being paid for pigmeat on the market and this is likely to continue to be the case well into 2011. An increase in pigmeat prices in the order of 10 to 15 per cent is expected by mid 2011. Sheep farmers enjoyed a very good year. Lamb prices were up 17 per cent as a result of a declining world supply and favourable exchange rates for exporting. The outlook remains positive and more price increases for sheep are expected for 2011. Cereal markets continue to be characterised by volatility. Last year was a bumper year with income on tillage farms more than doubling on the depressed levels for 2009. Due to the continued market volatility, forecasting the 2011 harvest prices is difficult. However the grain price outlook is generally positive. Fertilizer prices are expected to rise and for the majority of tillage farmers this will leave farm incomes down slightly for 2011. Only spring crops are likely to produce profit margins similar to 2010 levels. Over half a billion was invested on farms in Ireland in 2010, despite the poor overall performance in the economy and the poor availability of credit. The financial position of farmers improved considerably in 2010, with the ratio of debt to income declining. The outlook for investment on farms in 2011 remains somewhat depressed and little improvement is expected on the 2009 and 2010 levels.
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Ionchas Dearfach i leith Praghsanna Talmhaíochta ach Costais Ionchuir ag dul i Méid 20 Eanáir 2011 Is dearfach don ionchas i leith thromlach na dtráchtearraí talmhaíochta in 2011 de bharr go bhfuil borradh á chur faoin éileamh ar bhia ag teacht aniar an gheilleagair dhomhanda chomh maith le deacrachtaí leanúnacha leis an soláthar ón leathsféar theas mar aon le costais táirgthe atá ag dul i méid. Ba léir an méid seo ag lucht Chomhdháil Eacnamaíocht Talmhaíochta Theagasc, a bheidh á reáchtáil i bPort Laoise inniu, Déardaoin an 20 Eanáir. Bhí an méid a leanas le rá ag an Dr Cathal O'Donohue, Ceannasaí Chlár Geilleagar agus Forbairt Tuaithe Theagasc, ag an gcomhdháil: “Ba bhliain thorthúil 2010 d’fheirmeoirí na hÉireann agus méadú tagtha ar luachanna aschuir san uile earnáil agus tá coinne leis gurb ionann a bheidh meánioncam teaghlach feirme in 2010 agus leibhéil 2008, arb ionann seo agus méadú 40% ar leibhéal 2009. Ina theannta sin, bhí líon an-mhór easpórtálacha bia le sonrú agus bhí mearbhorradh níos mó á chur faoi easpórtálacha agraibhia ná earnáil ar bith eile easpórtála.” Dúirt Thia Hennessy, Ceann Rannóg Eacnamaíocht Talmhaíochta agus Suirbhéanna Feirmeacha Theagasc: “Is é an t-ionchas i leith 2011 nach baol do thromlach na dtráchtearraí, ach ar a shon sin, tá an dealramh air go laghdóidh costais leasachán, bhreosla agus bhia ainmhithe cuid den mhéadú seo, agus tharlódh nach gcruthófaí cúinsí níos fearr do roinnt córais feirme in 2011 dá bharr. Níl coinne leis ach go dtiocfaidh méadú leormhaith ar phraghsanna aschuir i measc feirmeoirí déiríochta d’fhonn an méadú ar phraghsanna ionchuir a sheach-chur.” Maíodh gur bhliain fhíor-bhisiúil a bhí in 2010 le haghaidh feirmeoirí déiríochta, tráth ina raibh méadú ar tháirgeadh agus ar phraghsanna. Is dearfach an t-ionchas atá ann i leith 2011, agus tá coinne leis go mbeidh tréanéileamh ann ar mhargaí idirnáisiúnta. Is dealraitheach go mbainfidh praghsanna méadaithe leasacháin agus dlúthbhia cuid den mhéadú ar phraghas an bhainne. Ar a shon sin, táthar ag súil leis gurb ionann a bheidh ioncaim feirme le haghaidh feirmeacha déiríochta i mbliana agus leibhéil 2010, ar a laghad. Cuireadh ar an eolas toscairí ag comhdháil Theagasc go ndearnadh gnóthachain maidir le praghsanna eallaigh in 2010 ach nár leor na gnóthachain seo le borradh a chur faoi ioncaim feirme. Tá dea-ionchas ann le haghaidh praghsanna eallaigh agus táthar ag dréim leis go dtiocfaidh borradh ar na meánphraghsanna bliantúla faoi 5% in 2011, ach ní leor an méid seo leis na costais ionchuir ar a bhfuil méadú ag teacht a sheach-chur, áfach. Tá mórtháirgeoirí thíos leis na hardchostais atá ar bhia faoi láthair. I láthair na huaire, tá na praghsanna atá á n-íoc ar mhuiceoil ar an margadh á sárú ag costais táirgthe agus is dealraitheach gurb amhlaidh a bheidh an scéal nó go mbeidh tamall maith de 2011 slánaithe againn. Tá coinne leis go dtiocfaidh méadú idir 10 agus 15% ar phraghsanna muiceola faoi lár 2011. Bliain an-bhisiúil a bhí ann i measc feirmeoirí caorach. Bhí méadú 17% tagtha ar phraghsanna uain mar thoradh ar sholáthar domhanda ar ar tháinig meath chomh maith le rátaí fabhracha malairte le haghaidh easpórtála. Is dearfach go fóill an t-ionchas agus táthar ag súil leis go dtiocfaidh níos mó méaduithe ar phraghsanna caorach in 2011. Tá luaineacht le sonrú go fóill sa mhargadh gránach. Ba bhliain fíor-bhisiúil an bhliain seo caite, tráth inar tháinig méadú breis agus faoi dhó ar ioncam feirmeacha curaíochta ó íseal-leibhéil 2009. Is deacair ionchas le haghaidh praghsanna fómhair in 2011 a thuar de bharr gurb ann go fóill do luaineacht sa mhargadh. Is dearfach den chuid is mó an t-ionchas i leith praghsanna gránach, áfach. Tá coinne leis go dtiocfaidh méadú ar phraghsanna leasúcháin agus beidh ioncaim feirmeacha thromlach na bhfeirmeoirí curaíochta don bhliain 2011 ábhairín íseal dá bharr seo. Tá an chuma ar an scéal nach ngnóthaigh ach barra earraigh brabús den mhéid céanna le leibhéil 2010. Rinneadh breis agus leathbhilliún a infheistiú i bhfeirmeacha in Éirinn in 2010, in ainneoin nár éirigh ró-mhaith leis an ngeilleagar, ar an iomlán, agus nach raibh ach fáil scáinte ar shochar. Tháinig feabhas nach beag ar staid airgeadais feirmeoirí in 2010, agus tháinig meath ar an gcóimheas idir fiachas agus ioncam. Is ábhairín diúltach an t-ionchas i leith infheistíochta ar fheirmeacha in 2011 agus níltear ag súil leis go dtiocfaidh mórán feabhais air ó leibhéil 2009 agus 2010.