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This is Part 2 of the equity valuation series articles and will cover the following – - What is Comparable Company Analysis? - How to interpret the comparable company analysis table? - How to identify comparable companies? - How do we prepare a professional comparable company analysis table In order to fully understand these concepts, you should have reasonable knowledge of Relative Valuation Multiples like EV/EBITDA, PE Ratio, P/BV etc. Txawm li cas los, If you want a quick refresher, you may refer to Part 1 of this equity valuation series that covered the topic of Relative Valuation multiples #1 – What is Comparable Company Analysis? (also called as “Trading Comps”, “Comparable Comps”) Comparable analysis can be best explained with a help of an example – let’s assume that you are planning to buy a house in New York (why not?). Obviously you may search on the many of real estate brokerage websites and would also draw a comparative study on the same. You would compare one apartment with another and would also try to get a sense of what they are worth as compared to each other. When you are comparing apartments, you would consider different attributes such as number of rooms, size of bedrooms, number of bathroom, layout etc. In doing so, what you would notice is that apartments with similar kind of attributes may cost similarly! In this context, let us now try and understand what is comparable “Company” analysis?. Below is the definition sourced from Investopedia. From the above apartment related discussion and investopedia definition, we can draw the following inferences regarding comparable analysis - - Just like comparing the apartments, comparable company analysis helps you compare different companies with similar size and industry and derive a fair value for them - Instead of looking at the number of beds, location, bathrooms etc, you look at relative valuation multiples (like EV/EBITDA, PE, P/BV etc). - You infer from such comparison regarding a company’s price is over valued or under valued. I guess with this basic analogy we should be able to proceed and move forward to reading the comparable company analysis. # 2 – How to read comparable company analysis table? For learning to read a comparable company analysis table, I will take a real life example, Box Inc that had earlier announced its IPO. We want to understand at what valuation price point should we invest in Box Inc IPO shares. Below is the comparable company analysis table for Box IPO. There are broadly 5 parts to the comparable analysis table – - Company Information - - This includes Company Name, Ticker and Price. Ticker is a unique symbol given to the company to identify publicly listed company. - You may take bloomberg, reuters tickers as well. Tseem, note that prices that we take here are the most recent prices. - We make the table in such a way that these prices are linked to the database where they would get updated automatically. - Size of the company - - This includes Market Capitalization and market Enterprise Value. - We normally sort the table on the basis of Market Capitalization. Market Capitalization also provides us pseudo for the size of the company. - Enterprise Value is the current Market based valuation of the firm. - We may not want to compare a small market capitalization company with a large capitalization company. - Valuation Multiples - - This should include 2 to 3 appropriate valuation tools for comparison - We should ideally show one year of historical multiple and two years of forward multiples (estimated) - Choosing an appropriate valuation tool is the key to successfully valuing the company. - Operating Metrics - - This may include fundamental ratios like Revenue, growth, ROE, etc - This is important so that we can understand the fundamentals of the company at once. - You may include Profit Margins, ROE, Net Margin, Leverage etc to make this comp more meaningful. - Summary - - This is a simple mean, median, low and high of the above metrics - Mean and Median provides core insights to the fair valuation - If a company’s multiple is above the mean/median, we tend to infer that the company may be - overvalued - Zoo li no, if the multiple is below the mean/median, we may infer undervalued. - High and Low also helps us in understanding the outliers and a case to remove those if they are too far away from the Mean/Median. Reading the Comparable Company Analysis – Box IPO Let us now look at the summary of Comparable Company analysis of Box IPO. We can infer the following from the above table – - Cloud companies are trading at an average of 9.5x EV/Sales Multiple. - We note companies like Xero is an outlier that trades at 44x EV/Sales multiple (expected 2014 growth rate of 94%). - Lowest EV/Sales multiple is 2.0x - Cloud companies trade at EV/EBITDA multiple of 32x. Box Valuation - From the financial model of Box, we note that Box is EBITDA Negative so we can’t proceed with EV/EBITDA as a valuation tool. The only multiple that is suitable for valuation is EV/Sales. - Since the median EV/Sales is around 7.7x and mean is around 9.5x, we may consider making 3 scenarios for valuations. - Optimistic case of 10.0x EV/Sales, Base Case of 7.1x EV/Sales and Pessimistic Case of 5.0x EV/Sales. Below table shows the per share price using the 3 scenarios. - Box Inc valuation range from $11.02 (cov ntaub ntawv xav phem heev) to $24.74 (optimistic case) - Most expected valuation for Box Inc using Relative Valuation is $16.77 (expected) #3 – How to Identify Comparable Companies The most important element of comparable analysis is to identify the right set of comparable. Comparing value of apple to oranges does not make any sense here. It is important to conduct a preliminary study on comparable companies and it generally involves these 3 steps – a) Identifying the industry - Try to zero down the industries in which the companies are classified. - This can be tedious as different sources would give different industries for the same company and also the industry names would be different in various sources. - Generally the classifications available are very broad ones and cannot be relied completely - If there is no surety about the industry classification (which is the case most of the times), try to identify some keywords relevant to the business descriptions of the companies. For Building materials company, the relevant keywords can be – roofing, plumbing, framing, insulation, tiling, construction service, etc. - Though this example is simple, Txawm li cas los, for applying the same in real life scenario, one need to establish the value and the value driver and make several adjustments to it. b) Understand the Company description - It is important to understand the business in order to select comparable companies. - Try to find out the exact business description of the company. - Possible sources for this in the order of preference would be: - Company Website - Research reports - Company Filings (Latest 10K, Annual Report, etc.) - Yahoo Finance - Note: Company websites are very useful in helping to visualize the all the products and services, but research reports and company filings provide actual segment data to give a true business mix of the company c) Identify key competitors - Comparable companies can be identified from the following sources in the order of preference: - Research Reports - Company Filings – Competition Section - Yahoo Finance – Competitors and Industry sections - Hoovers – Competitors and Industry sections #4 – Professional Comparable Company Analysis: a Step-by-Step approach The key to preparing the comparable company analysis is the arrive at the right multiple (EV/Sales, P/E etc). Below is a sample summary Comparable Company Analysis Sheet – The requisite output of Company 1, Company 2, Company 3 … is linked from the input tabs “company 1″, “company 2″, “company 3″ respectively. Preparing the comparable comp table is not difficult, Txawm li cas los, correctly calculating the requisite valuation multiple sometimes is challenging. Li no, we will focus primarily on correctly calculating these multiples with an in-depth example. You can download the worksheet from here – Comparable Company Template Key Formulas used: - Basic Equity Value = Common Shares Outstanding * Share Price - Diluted Equity Value = Diluted Shares Outstanding * Share Price - Dilution from Options = Options – ( Options * Exercise Price) / Share Price - Dilution from Convertibles = Convertible Bonds * Conversion Ratio - Enterprise Value = Equity Value – Cash + Nqi + Minority Interest + Preferred Stock - For the dilution calculations above, the exercise price or conversion price needs to be below the share price. If the conversion price or the exercise price is above the Share Price, then there will be no dilution and options will not get exercised and conversion of bonds will not take place. Comparables Company valuation Steps: - Input basic information - Input Balance Sheet information - Calculate “in the money” stock options - Calculate “in the money” convertible securities - Calculate the LTM numbers (ex non-recurring items) - Calculate the Equity Value and Enterprise Value - Calculate the respective multiples Let us now proceed step-by-step to understand this fully. I have taken an example of Robert Half International (Ticker – RHI) and even though the data used here is pretty old (2006 10K and 10Q), i am sure it will still prove to be useful for understanding the general methodology. Kauj ruam 1: Input the basic information for a comparable company Kauj ruam 2: Input the latest available Balance Sheet information Kauj ruam 3: Calculate all the “in the money” stock options Kauj ruam 4: Calculate all the “in the money” convertible securities As with options, you only get dilution from convertible bonds if the company’s current share price exceeds the conversion price of the bonds. How You Factor Convertible Bonds Into Enterprise Value: If the convertible bonds are in‐the‐money (they can convert to shares) then you calculate the dilution and add them to shares outstanding. If they’re out‐of-the‐money (they cannot convert into shares) then you count the bonds as debt instead. - Dilution from Convertibles = Convertible Bonds * Conversion Ratio - Convertible Bonds = Convertible Dollar Amount / Par Value - Conversion Ratio = Par Value / Conversion Price - Conversion Price = Par Value / Conversion Ratio Kauj ruam 5: Calculate the LTM numbers (ex non-recurring items) Kauj ruam 6: Calculate the Equity Value and Enterprise Value Kauj ruam 7: Calculate the respective multiples Below is a brief summary of important adjustments for Comparable Company Analysis. Yog dab tsi tom ntej? If you learned something new from this post, thov tawm mus saib hauv qab. Qhia rau kuv paub li koj xav. Thanks and take care.
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Is é seo an gCuid 2 de na hailt tsraith luachála cothromais agus clúdóidh an méid seo a leanas – - Cad é Anailís Cuideachta inchomparáide? - Conas é a léiriú ar an tábla anailís cuideachta inchomparáide? - Conas cuideachtaí inchomparáide a aithint? - Conas is féidir linn a ullmhú cuideachta inchomparáide tábla anailís ghairmiúil D'fhonn a thuiscint go hiomlán ar na coincheapa, ba chóir duit a bhfuil eolas réasúnta Iolraithe Luachála choibhneasta mhaith EV / EBITDA, PE Cóimheas, P / BV srl. Mar sin féin, Más mian leat a athnuachana mear, is féidir leat tagairt a dhéanamh Cuid 1 den tsraith luachála cothromais a chumhdaítear an ábhar Ar iolraithe Luachála choibhneasta #1 – Cad é Anailís Cuideachta inchomparáide? (ar a dtugtar freisin mar “Comps trádála”, “Comps Inchomparáide”) Is féidir anailís Inchomparáide fearr a mhíniú le cabhair ó shampla – a ligean ar glacadh leis go bhfuil tú ag pleanáil chun teach a cheannach i Nua-Eabhrac (cén fáth nach?). Is léir go is féidir leat cuardach a dhéanamh ar an iliomad láithreáin ghréasáin bróicéireachta eastát réadach agus go mbeadh a tharraingt chomh maith staidéar comparáideach ar an gcéanna. Ba mhaith leat a chur i gcomparáid árasán le chéile agus go mbeadh iarracht chomh maith a fháil tuiscint ar cad atá siad fiú i gcomparáid le chéile. Nuair atá tú i gcomparáid árasán, ba mhaith leat a mheas tréithe éagsúla, mar shampla líon na seomraí, Méid na seomraí leapa, líon na n-seomra folctha, Leagan amach srl. Agus sin á dhéanamh, cad a thugann tú faoi deara go bhfuil Is féidir árasán le chineál céanna na tréithe costas céanna,! Sa chomhthéacs seo,, in iúl dúinn iarracht a dhéanamh anois agus a thuiscint cad is inchomparáide “Cuideachta” anailís?. Anseo thíos tá an sainmhíniú a fuarthas ó Investopedia. fhoinse – www.investopedia.com Ón bplé a bhaineann le árasán thuas agus sainmhíniú investopedia, is féidir linn a tharraingt ar na tátail a leanas maidir le anailís inchomparáide - - Díreach mar chur i gcomparáid leis an árasán, Cuidíonn anailís cuideachta inchomparáide tú i gcomparáid cuideachtaí éagsúla le méid agus tionscail den chineál céanna agus a fhaigheann luach cóir dóibh - In ionad féachaint ar líon na leapacha, suíomh, seomraí folctha srl, tú ag féachaint ar iolraigh luachála coibhneasta (cosúil le EV / EBITDA, PE, P / BV srl). - Tátal a bhaint astu tú ó comparáide den sórt sin a bhaineann le praghas cuideachta é thar luacháil nó faoi luacháil. I guess with this basic analogy we should be able to proceed and move forward to reading the comparable company analysis. # 2 – Conas a léamh tábla anailís cuideachta inchomparáide? Le haghaidh foghlaim a léamh tábla anailís cuideachta inchomparáide, Beidh mé sampla saol fíor, Bosca Inc that had earlier announced its IPO. Ba mhaith linn a thuiscint ar an méid atá pointe phraghas luachála chóir dúinn infheistiú i scaireanna Bosca Inc IPO. Below is the comparable company analysis table for Box IPO. There are broadly 5 codanna leis an tábla anailís inchomparáide – - Eolas faoin gComhlacht - - Áirítear leis seo Ainm na Cuideachta, Ticker agus Praghas. Is Ticker siombail uathúil a thugtar don chuideachta a aithint cuideachta atá liostaithe go poiblí. - Is féidir leat Bloomberg, Reuters tickers chomh maith. Chomh maith leis sin, faoi deara go bhfuil praghsanna a chur orainn anseo na praghsanna is déanaí. - A théimid ar an tábla ar bhealach go bhfuil na praghsanna a nasctha leis an mbunachar sonraí i gcás ina mbeadh siad a fháil suas chun dáta go huathoibríoch. - Méid na cuideachta - - Áirítear leis seo Capitalization Margaidh agus an margadh Luach Fiontar. - De ghnáth Táimid sórtáil ar an tábla ar bhonn Capitalization Mhargaidh. Soláthraíonn Capitalization Mhargaidh dúinn freisin pseudo chun an méid de na cuideachta. - Luach fiontar an luacháil margaidh reatha bunaithe ar an ghnólachta. - Ní féidir linn a iarraidh a chur i gcomparáid le cuideachta caipitlithe margaidh beag le cuideachta caipitlithe mór. - Iolraithe Luachála - - Ba chóir go mbeadh 2 go 3 Uirlisí luachála iomchuí le haghaidh comparáide - Ba chóir dúinn a thaispeáint go hidéalach bliain amháin de il stairiúil agus dhá bhliain d'iolraigh ar aghaidh (measta) - Roghnú uirlis luachála iomchuí an eochair chun meas go rathúil ar an gcuideachta. - Metrics Oibriúcháin - - D'fhéadfadh sé seo cóimheasa bunúsacha ar nós na Coimisinéirí Ioncaim san áireamh, fás, ROE, srl - Tá sé seo tábhachtach ionas gur féidir linn tuiscint a fháil ar an bunúsacha na cuideachta ag an am céanna. - Is féidir Imill Brabús tá tú, ROE, Imeall Glan, Giarála srl a dhéanamh COMP seo níos mó brí. - Achoimre - - Is é seo an meán simplí, airmheán, íseal agus ard de na méadraigh thuas - Meán agus soláthraíonn Airmheán lárnach léargais ar an luacháil cothrom - Má tá cuideachta il os cionn an meán / airmheán, claonadh a bhíonn againn a tátal a bhaint astu go bhféadfaidh an chuideachta a bheith - dtugann siad - Mar an gcéanna, má tá an t-iolrú faoi bhun an meán / airmheán, Is féidir linn a tátal a bhaint astu undervalued. - Ard agus Íseal chabhraíonn linn freisin tuiscint a fháil ar na asluitigh agus cás a bhaint dóibh siúd má tá siad ró-bhfad ar shiúl ó na Meán / Airmheán. Léamh an Anailís Cuideachta Inchomparáide – Bosca IPO Lig dúinn breathnú anois ar an achoimre ar anailís na Cuideachta comparáideach ar Bosca IPO. Is féidir linn a tátal a bhaint astu seo a leanas ón tábla thuas – - Cuideachtaí Cloud ag trádáil ar an meán de 9.5x EV / Díolacháin Il. - Tugaimid faoi deara go bhfuil cuideachtaí ar nós Xero asluiteach a ceirdeanna ag 44x EV / Díolacháin il (ag súil 2014 ráta fáis de 94%). - Tá Is ísle EV / Díolacháin il 2.0x - Cuideachtaí Cloud trádáil ar EV / TRÚCDA iolraí de 32x. Luacháil bosca - Ón samhail airgeadais Bosca, we note that Box is EBITDA Negative so we can’t proceed with EV/EBITDA as a valuation tool. The only multiple that is suitable for valuation is EV / Díolacháin. - Ós rud é go bhfuil an EV airmheán / Díolacháin thart 7.7x agus ciallóidh timpeall 9.5x, Is féidir linn a machnamh a dhéanamh 3 cásanna maidir le luachálacha. - Cás Soirbh de 10.0x EV / Díolacháin, Base Cás of 7.1x EV/Sales and Pessimistic Cás de 5.0x EV / Díolacháin. Thíos Léiríonn tábla an praghas a roinnt in aghaidh an úsáid a bhaint as an 3 cásanna. - Bosca Inc raon luachála ó $11.02 (cás Doirbh) go $24.74 (cás dóchasach) - Tá luacháil is súil do Bosca Inc ag baint úsáide as Luacháil choibhneasta $16.77 (ag súil) #3 – Conas a aithint cuideachtaí inchomparáide Is é an ghné is tábhachtaí den anailís inchomparáide do cheart sraith de inchomparáide a aithint. Ní luach na úll a chur i gcomparáid le oráistí a dhéanamh ar aon chiall anseo. Tá sé tábhachtach chun staidéar réamh ar chuideachtaí inchomparáide agus go mbaineann sé i gcoitinne ar na 3 céimeanna – a) An tionscal a aithint - Bain triail as a náid síos na tionscail ina bhfuil na cuideachtaí rangaithe. - Is féidir é seo a bheith tedious mar a bheadh foinsí éagsúla a thabhairt tionscail éagsúla le haghaidh an chuideachta chéanna agus go mbeadh freisin ainmneacha tionscal a bheith difriúil i bhfoinsí éagsúla. - Go ginearálta na haicmithe atá ar fáil cinn an-leathan agus ní féidir brath go hiomlán - Mura bhfuil aon urra mar gheall ar an aicmiú tionscal (a bhfuil an cás is mó de na huaire), iarracht a roinnt focail a bhaineann leis na tuairiscí gnó na gcuideachtaí a aithint. Le haghaidh ábhar Foirgníochta cuideachta, Is féidir na heochairfhocail ábhartha - dín, pluiméireachta, chumadh, insliú, tiling, Seirbhís tógála, srl. - Cé go bhfuil an sampla seo simplí, áfach, do chur i bhfeidhm mar an gcéanna i scéal saol fíor, Ní mór amháin a roinnt coigeartuithe a bhunú ar an luach agus an tiománaí luach agus a dhéanamh dó. b) Tuiscint a fháil ar an cur síos Cuideachta - Tá sé tábhachtach a thuiscint an gnó d'fhonn a roghnú cuideachtaí inchomparáide. - Déan iarracht chun a fháil amach an cur síos cruinn gnó na cuideachta. - Bheadh foinsí féideartha seo san ord tosaíochta a: - Cuideachta Suíomh Gréasáin - Tuarascálacha taighde - Comhduithe Cuideachta (10K déanaí, Tuarascáil Bhliantúil, srl) - Yahoo Airgeadais - Nóta: Tá suíomh gréasáin cuideachta an-úsáideach i cuidiú a shamhlú an uile na táirgí agus na seirbhísí, ach a chur ar fáil tuarascálacha taighde agus comhdú cuideachta sonraí a deighleog iarbhír a thabhairt ar an meascán gnó fíor na cuideachta c) A aithint na príomhiomaitheoirí - Is féidir le cuideachtaí Inchomparáide a aithint ó na foinsí seo a leanas san ord tosaíochta: - Tuarascálacha taighde - Comhduithe Company - Alt Comórtas - Yahoo Airgeadais - iomaitheoirí agus ailt Tionscail - Hoovers - iomaitheoirí agus ailt Tionscal #4 – Anailís Cuideachta Gairmiúla inchomparáide: Cur chuige Céim-ar-Chéim Is í an eochair chun an anailís cuideachta inchomparáide ullmhú teacht ar an il ceart (EV / Díolacháin, P / E srl). Anseo thíos tá Bileog achomair sampla Anailís Cuideachta inchomparáide – An t-aschur is gá na Cuideachta 1, Cuideachta 2, Cuideachta 3 … nasctha ó na tabs ionchur “cuideachta 1″, “cuideachta 2″, “cuideachta 3″ faoi seach. Ullmhú an tábla COMP inchomparáide nach bhfuil sé deacair, áfach, gceart a ríomh an t-iolrú luachála is gá uaireanta dúshlánach. Dá bhrí sin, beidh muid fócas go príomha ar na gceart iolraithe a ríomh le sampla in-depth. Is féidir leat an bhileog oibre ó anseo – Teimpléad Cuideachta Inchomparáide Foirmlí Eochair a úsáideadh: - Basic Equity Value = Common Shares Outstanding * Comhroinn Praghas - Diluted Equity Value = Diluted Shares Outstanding * Comhroinn Praghas - Dilution from Options = Options – ( Roghanna * Ceacht Praghas) / Comhroinn Praghas - Dilution from Convertibles = Convertible Bonds * Cóimheas Tiontú - Enterprise Value = Equity Value – Cash + Fiach + Ús Mionlaigh + Rogha Stoc - I gcás na ríomhanna chaolú thuas, the exercise price or conversion price needs to be below the share price. Má tá an praghas comhshó nó an praghas a fheidhmiú os cionn an Share Praghas, ansin ní bheidh aon chaolú agus ní bheidh na roghanna a fháil fheidhmiú agus ní chomhshó bannaí ar siúl. Céimeanna luachála comparables Cuideachta: - Eolas bunúsach Ionchur - Faisnéis Clár Comhardaithe Ionchur - Ríomh "an t-airgead" roghanna stoc - Ríomh "an t-airgead" urrúis inchomhshóite - Ríomh na huimhreacha LTM (míreanna sean neamh-athfhillteacha) - Ríomh Luach Cothromas agus Luach Fiontar - Ríomh na iolrach seach Lig dúinn dul ar aghaidh anois céim-ar-chéim chun tuiscint a fháil ar seo go hiomlán. Ghlac mé sampla de Robert Leath Idirnáisiúnta (Ticker – RHI) agus cé go bhfuil na sonraí a úsáidtear anseo go leor d'aois (2006 10K agus 10Q), Tá mé cinnte go mbeidh sé a chruthú go fóill a bheith úsáideach chun tuiscint an modheolaíocht ghinearálta. Céim 1: Ionchur an fhaisnéis bhunúsach do chuideachta inchomparáide Céim 2: Ionchur an t-eolas is déanaí Clár Comhardaithe ar fáil Céim 3: Ríomh fad an "t-airgead" roghanna stoc Céim 4: Ríomh fad an "t-airgead" urrúis inchomhshóite Mar is amhlaidh le roghanna, you only get dilution from convertible bonds if the company’s current share price exceeds the conversion price of the bonds. Conas tú Fachtóir Bannaí chomhshóite Isteach Luach Fiontraíochta: If the convertible bonds are in‐the‐money (is féidir leo a thiontú go scaireanna) ansin tú a ríomh ar an caolú agus iad a chur le scaireanna gan íoc. If they’re out‐of-the‐money (Ní féidir leo a chomhshó ina scaireanna) ansin tú ag comhaireamh na bannaí mar fhiach ina ionad. - Dilution from Convertibles = Convertible Bonds * Cóimheas Tiontú - Convertible Bonds = Convertible Dollar Amount / Faoi Luach - Conversion Ratio = Par Value / Comhshó Praghas - Conversion Price = Par Value / Cóimheas Tiontú Céim 5: Ríomh na huimhreacha LTM (míreanna sean neamh-athfhillteacha) Céim 6: Ríomh Luach Cothromas agus Luach Fiontar Céim 7: Ríomh na iolrach seach Seo thíos achoimre ghearr ar coigeartuithe tábhachtach do Anailís Cuideachta inchomparáide. Cad Aghaidh? Má fhoghlaim tú rud éigin nua ó an post seo, please leave a comment below. Bíodh a fhios agam cad a cheapann tú. Go raibh maith agat agus cúram a ghlacadh.