http___hr.chuandingdianli.com_news_steel-industry-research-weekly-weak-supply-and-demand-waiting-for-inventory-to-clear__1.xml
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Affected by the drop in spot prices of bifocals this week, billet costs have dropped sharply, and steel prices have fallen in the same proportion as bifocals, resulting in a ton of steel profit that has not expanded as we expected. The main reason is that although the current production cuts continue to strengthen, However, the demand side is also weak. Judging from the procurement volume of wire spirals in Shanghai, in addition to the continuous improvement from August to September, the month-on-month decline again after November. The weak demand for real estate construction chain makes it difficult to improve the demand for rebar in the short term. When will the profit per ton of steel expand again? We believe that the industry chain inventory needs to be fully depleted. Although the current steel inventory continues to deplete, there is still a 30+% increase compared to the beginning of the year, indicating that the inventory is exhausted throughout the year. After part of the incremental inventory is eliminated, the impact of the supply-side production reduction may be truly reflected. From the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative crude steel output in the first September was 806 million tons and the pig iron output was 671 million tons, which was 2.00% and -1.30% year-on-year respectively. The output of pig iron fell for the first time, and the effect of the reduction in production was apparent. From the perspective of the overall supply and demand contraction of steel, the contraction in supply is greater than the contraction in demand. As the subsequent stocks are sufficient, the effect of production reduction will gradually manifest. Iron ore and double coke are the main production costs of steel billets. At present, iron ore has fallen from a high level. As the price of double coke continues to return to a reasonable level with policy control, the cost of steel billets may gradually peak. From the perspective of less impact from the reduction in production, pay attention to Linggang, Fangda Special Steel, Xingang, Sangang Minguang, etc.; from the perspective of growth, it is recommended to pay attention to: Jiuli Special Materials and Guangda Special Materials. Terminal demand is weak, and production restrictions continue to advance The procurement volume of thread snails in Shanghai was 15,900 tons, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous month, and a decrease of 17,200 tons compared with the same period last year, and a year-on-year decrease of 52.0%. The operating rate of blast furnaces this week was 48.48%, down 3.59pct from the previous month; the operating rate of electric furnaces was 61.54%, down 1.28pct from the previous month. Iron ore prices continued to fall, and bi-coke prices peaked Iron ore futures prices fell 55 yuan/ton to 587 yuan/ton, an increase of -8.57%; coking coal futures prices fell 208 yuan/ton to 3400 yuan/ton, an increase of -5.76%; coke futures spot prices rose 210 yuan/ Ton to 4326 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.09%. The total shipment of overseas iron ore was 21.431 million tons, an increase of 1.22 million tons or 6% month-on-month; the total arrival of ore from northern ports was 11.234 million tons, a decrease of 1.953 million tons or 15% from the previous month. Steel prices fell, gross profit per ton of steel fell From the perspective of the profitability of different steel products, iron ore prices continued to fall as the price of bi-coke peaked and fell, billet costs began to fall, but steel prices fell, and gross profit per ton of steel fell. In terms of breakdown, the gross profit per ton of long-flow rebar is 602 yuan/ton, and the gross profit per ton of short-flow rebar is 360 yuan/ton. Cold rolling has the highest profitability, with a gross profit per ton of 1232 yuan/ton for the long process and RMB 990/ton for the short process. Risk warning: The macroeconomic recovery is not as expected; the global inflation level exceeds expectations; the increase in ore production does not meet expectations; the progress of the development and vaccination of the new crown vaccine is lower than expected. Post time: Nov-08-2021
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Pod utjecajem pada promptnih cijena bifokala ovog tjedna, troškovi gredica su naglo pali, a cijene čelika pale su u istom omjeru kao i bifokalne, što je rezultiralo tonom dobiti čelika koja se nije povećala kako smo očekivali. Glavni razlog je taj što, iako trenutna smanjenja proizvodnje nastavljaju jačati, potražnja je također slaba. Sudeći prema obujmu nabave žičanih spirala u Šangaju, osim kontinuiranog poboljšanja od kolovoza do rujna, nakon studenog ponovno se smanjio mjesečni pad. Slaba potražnja za građevinskim lancem nekretnina otežava kratkoročno poboljšanje potražnje za armaturom. Kada će se profit po toni čelika ponovno povećati? Vjerujemo da zalihe industrijskog lanca treba u potpunosti iscrpiti. Iako se trenutna zaliha čelika i dalje iscrpljuje, još uvijek postoji povećanje od 30+% u odnosu na početak godine, što ukazuje da se zalihe iscrpljuju tijekom cijele godine. Nakon što se eliminira dio inkrementalnog zaliha, učinak smanjenja proizvodnje na strani ponude može se uistinu odraziti. Prema statistici Državnog zavoda za statistiku, kumulativna proizvodnja sirovog čelika u prvom rujnu iznosila je 806 milijuna tona, a proizvodnja sirovog željeza 671 milijun tona, što je 2,00% odnosno -1,30% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu. Proizvodnja sirovog željeza je prvi put pala, a učinak smanjenja proizvodnje bio je očit. Iz perspektive ukupnog smanjenja ponude i potražnje čelika, kontrakcija ponude je veća od kontrakcije potražnje. Kako su naknadne zalihe dovoljne, postupno će se očitovati učinak smanjenja proizvodnje. Željezna ruda i dvostruki koks glavni su troškovi proizvodnje čeličnih gredica. Trenutno je željezna ruda pala s visoke razine. Kako se cijena dvostrukog koksa nastavlja vraćati na razumnu razinu uz kontrolu politike, cijena čeličnih gredica može postupno dostići vrhunac. Iz perspektive manjeg utjecaja smanjenja proizvodnje, obratite pozornost na Linggang, Fangda Special Steel, Xingang, Sangang Minguang, itd.; iz perspektive rasta, preporuča se obratiti pozornost na: Jiuli Special Materials i Guangda Special Materials. Terminalna potražnja je slaba, a ograničenja proizvodnje nastavljaju napredovati Obim nabave puževa od konca u Šangaju iznosio je 15.900 tona, što je smanjenje od 3,6% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec i smanjenje od 17.200 tona u odnosu na isto razdoblje prošle godine, te smanjenje od 52,0% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu. Stopa rada visokih peći ovog tjedna iznosila je 48,48%, što je 3,59 posto manje u odnosu na prethodni mjesec; stopa rada električnih peći iznosila je 61,54%, što je za 1,28 posto manje u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Cijene željezne rude nastavile su padati, a cijene bi-koksa dosegle su vrhunac Cijene fjučersa željezne rude pale su za 55 juana po toni na 587 juana po toni, što je povećanje od -8,57%; cijene fjučersa ugljena za koksiranje pale su za 208 juana/tona na 3400 juana/tona, što je povećanje od -5,76%; Promptne cijene koksa porasle su za 210 juana po toni na 4326 juana po toni, što je povećanje od 5,09%. Ukupna isporuka željezne rude u inozemstvo iznosila je 21,431 milijuna tona, što je povećanje od 1,22 milijuna tona ili 6% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec; ukupan dolazak rude iz sjevernih luka iznosio je 11,234 milijuna tona, što je smanjenje od 1,953 milijuna tona ili 15% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Pale su cijene čelika, pala je bruto dobit po toni čelika Iz perspektive profitabilnosti različitih proizvoda od čelika, cijene željezne rude nastavile su padati kako je cijena bi-koksa dostigla vrhunac i pala, troškovi gredice su počeli padati, ali su cijene čelika pale, a bruto dobit po toni čelika pala. U smislu raščlambe, bruto dobit po toni dugotočne armature je 602 juana/tona, a bruto dobit po toni kratkotočne armature je 360 juana/toni. Hladno valjanje ima najveću profitabilnost, s bruto dobiti po toni od 1232 juana/toni za dugi proces i 990 RMB/toni za kratki proces. Upozorenje o riziku: Makroekonomski oporavak nije očekivan; razina globalne inflacije premašuje očekivanja; povećanje proizvodnje rude ne ispunjava očekivanja; napredak razvoja i cijepljenja novog krunskog cjepiva manji je od očekivanog. Vrijeme objave: 08.11.2021