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China's macro economy has undergone more than 30 years of rapid development, has entered the actual second-strongest economic entity. The rapid development of the economy, China's real estate market has brought huge impetus, so that the real estate market bubble and gradually enlarged. Is there a bubble in China's housing prices? Andy Xie, The Economist, pointed out that the bubble was huge, and that it was a turning point in the property market, while many economists pointed out that the bubble was not serious and would not enter a real inflection. In fact, for housing prices, all countries in the world have a common way of computing, that is, the highest price is a person who does not eat or drink 10 years of income can buy a house, if it is on the installment of their daily expenses in addition to 20 years can pay off the loan; Then we can calculate the per capita income and work distance in each city and you will know the price of the house. Beijing, for example, currently has the highest school district room of 300,000/square meters. And the school district room so high price, buy a house person's income must be more than 3 million annual salary can buy, and since to buy School District room, annual salary is so high? Look at the statistics, such as just beginning to statistics Beijing housing prices, is two-ring-side housing prices, and then real estate rapidly outward expansion, immediately statistics to the three-ring four-ring five-ring until today, including the Beijing suburb of the average price together. It looks as if house prices are not going up very well, but in fact the 10-year price of two rings has risen by more than 10 times times or more, and income is unlikely to reach a 10 times-fold gain. This can be done in contrast to house prices and income disparities. Look at Shanghai, ten years ago the main real estate market is within the ring, the price of less than 10,000, and now the inner ring prices can hardly find under 100,000. Also rose more than 10 times times. Look at the real estate market, of course, also need to look at supply and demand relations, because the market has a supply and demand relationship. and the current national vacancy and inventory room close to billion sets. What does that mean? said that can solve the housing of 100 million households, and affordable housing this year will also develop millions of sets, is expected to end vacant room and inventory room will reach 100 million sets. We look at developers, at present, many developers have to transfer domestic development to foreign real estate market development, capital also flowed out. Looking at the land market, the proportion of the land is rising, indicating that the market demand is gradually reduced. There are many factors we can study, and relevance, we finally found that the real estate market is indeed to enter a turning point, that is, can not be in the big development, and may even enter the fall cycle. The elevator market is now more than 80% dependent on the real estate market, although the old staircase replacement and retrofitting of older buildings add elevators, but this is also the market behavior. To change the elevator from 15 years ago to the installation of statistics, according to the Chinese elevator network data response, 15 years ago in 2000, the national elevator production only million units, and ten years ago there were only more than 40,000 units. In 2013, it reached 550,000 units, which means that elevator sales and marketing to the real estate market rely on a great degree. The replacement of the old ladder, in the next five years, the highest annual volume of not more than 50,000 units. Elevator manufacturing enterprises in China is close to 700, and the actual total capacity of 750,000 units per year output. The remaining capacity is 200,000 units in 2013. So if the elevator sales in 2015 down to 500,000 units or lower, the domestic elevator market will? We look at the development of the elevator industry history, in China elevator market and Enterprise is the beginning of the 50 's construction, into the early 70, only 14 of the national elevator industrial production license, 70 generation of elevator sales less than thousand units. Into the late 90, the elevator sales into the million annual output, and last year reached 550,000 units. According to the author of the macro market and the real estate market and the elevator market analysis, the Chinese elevator industry will also enter a period of adjustment, and this adjustment period is not only the elevator overall production and marketing adjustment, but will some backward enterprises and small enterprises have a major blow. If the real estate market adjustment period arrives, then the elevator industry adjustment also will arrive. But to our development has no characteristic, the brand effect is poor, the technical level backwardness elevator enterprise will have the fatal blow. In a family we need to think about how to live better in the future, and a business to see how to survive in the future. When the real estate market inflection point, if we do not think the elevator industry itself, not to prepare, there is no strategy to deal with, then we will not be able to develop, or even survive. Of course, it's possible to be alarmist, but being prepared is more important. The rapid development of China's elevator industry to today's world production and marketing first, but we do not actually surpass the international machine products, has always been with Europe and the United States behind Japan to develop the elevator industry has not adapted to the future development. China must have the world's leading elevator technology, such as the fourth generation without engine room elevator the same machine technology, we need to make a breakthrough in thinking, need to research and development, we need to work together. Facing the grim economic situation and the turning point of the real estate market, are you ready to deal with it? Are you ready to deal with your business? Are our industry colleagues ready to deal with it? Previous: Several Points For Elevator Safety Next: How To Assess The Level Of Energy-saving Elevator Is The Most Reasonable?
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Kina je makroekonomija prošla više od 30 godina brzog razvoja, ušla je u stvarnu drugo najjaču gospodarsku cjelinu. Brz razvoj gospodarstva, kinesko tržište nekretnina donijelo je golem poticaj, tako da se tržište nekretnina penje i postepeno povećava. Ima li mjehurića u kineskim cijenama stanova? Andy Xie, The Economist, istaknuo je da je mjehurić ogroman i da je to prekretnica na tržištu nekretnina, dok su mnogi ekonomisti istakli da mjehurić nije ozbiljan i da neće ući u pravi zamah. U stvari, za cijene stanovanja, sve zemlje svijeta imaju zajednički način računanja, tj. Najviša cijena je osoba koja ne jede ili pije 10 godina prihoda može kupiti kuću, ako je na obroci Njihovi dnevni troškovi, osim 20 godina, mogu isplatiti zajam; Tada možemo izračunati dohodak po stanovniku i radna udaljenost u svakom gradu i znat ćete cijenu kuće. Peking, na primjer, trenutačno ima najvišu školsku četvrtinu od 300.000 četvornih metara. I školske četvrti soba tako visoke cijene, kupiti kuće osobe dohotka mora biti više od 3 milijuna godišnje plaće mogu kupiti, a od kupiti Školski okrug soba, godišnja plaća je tako visoka? Pogledajte statistiku, kao što je tek početak statistike Peking cijene stambenog prostora, je dva prstena stambene cijene, a zatim nekretnina brzo vanjska ekspanzija, odmah statistike na tri prstena četiri prstena pet prsten do danas, uključujući i Peking predgrađu prosječne cijene zajedno. Izgleda da cijene kuća ne idu vrlo dobro, ali u stvari desetogodišnja cijena dva prstena porasla je više od 10 puta puta ili više, a dohodak vjerojatno neće doseći deset puta veći dobitak. To se može učiniti za razliku od cijene kuća i razlika u prihodima. Pogledajte Šangaj, prije deset godina glavno tržište nekretnina nalazi se u prstenu, cijena je manja od 10.000, a sada unutarnje cijene prstena teško mogu naći ispod 100.000. Također je porastao više od 10 puta. Pogledajte na tržištu nekretnina, naravno, također treba pogledati ponude i potražnje odnosa, jer tržište ima odnos ponude i potražnje. I trenutni nacionalni natječaj i prostor za inventuru blizu milijarde setova. Što to znači? Rekao je da može riješiti stanovanje od 100 milijuna kućanstava, a pristupačne kućište ove godine će također razviti milijune kompleta, očekuje se da će završiti slobodna soba i inventara soba će doći do 100 milijuna kompleta. Gledamo programere, u ovom trenutku, mnogi programeri moraju prenijeti domaći razvoj na inozemno tržište nekretnina, kapital također istječe. Gledajući na tržište zemljišta, udio zemljišta raste, što ukazuje da se potražnja na tržištu postupno smanjuje. Mnogo čimbenika koje možemo proučiti i relevantnost konačno smo utvrdili da tržište nekretnina doista dolazi do prekretnice, tj. Ne može biti u velikom razvoju, pa čak može i ući u ciklus jeseni. Trgovina dizala sada je više od 80% ovisna o tržištu nekretnina, iako stara izmjena stuba i naknadno postavljanje starijih zgrada dodaju dizala, ali to je i tržišno ponašanje. Za promjenu dizala od prije 15 godina do instalacije statistike, prema kineskom odgovoru na mrežu dizala, prije 15 godina 2000, nacionalna proizvodnja dizala je samo milijun jedinica, a prije deset godina bilo je samo više od 40.000 jedinica. U 2013. godini dostigao je 550.000 jedinica, što znači da se prodaja dizala i marketing na tržištu nekretnina oslanjaju na velik stupanj. Zamjena stare ljestvice, u narednih pet godina, najviši godišnji volumen od najviše 50.000 jedinica. Proizvodnja dizala u Kini je blizu 700, a stvarni ukupni kapacitet od 750.000 jedinica godišnje proizvodnje. Preostali kapacitet je 200.000 jedinica u 2013. Dakle, ako prodaja dizala u 2015. do 500.000 jedinica ili niže, domaće tržište dizala će? Gledamo razvoj povijesti dizala dizala, u kineskom tržištu dizala i Enterprise je početak 50-ih godina izgradnje, u ranim 70, samo 14 nacionalnih dizala proizvodnja industrijske licence, 70 generacija dizala prodaje manje od tisuću jedinice. Krajem 90, prodaja dizala u milijun godišnje proizvodnje, a prošle godine dosegla je 550.000 jedinica. Prema autoru makro tržišta i tržišta nekretnina i analize tržišta dizala, kineska dizelska industrija također će ući u razdoblje prilagodbe, a to razdoblje prilagodbe nije samo dizanje dizala i podešavanje tržišta, već će i neke unatrag Poduzeća i mala poduzeća imaju veliki udarac. Ako dođe vrijeme prilagodbe tržišta nekretnina, tada će i prilagodba industrije dizala stići. No, za naš razvoj nema karakterističan, brand učinak je loše, tehničkih razina zaostalosti poduzeće lift će imati kobni udarac. U obitelji moramo razmišljati o tome kako živjeti bolje u budućnosti, i posao da vidimo kako preživjeti u budućnosti. Kada se refleksije tržišta nekretnina, ako ne mislimo da industrija dizala, da se ne pripremi, nema strategije za rješavanje, onda nećemo biti u stanju razviti ili čak preživjeti. Naravno, moguće je alarmirati, ali priprema je važnija. Brz razvoj kineskog dizala industriji na današnju svjetsku proizvodnju i marketing prvi, ali mi zapravo ne nadmašuju međunarodnih strojnih proizvoda, uvijek je bio s Europom i Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama iza Japana za razvoj dizala industrije nije prilagodena budućem razvoju. Kina mora imati vodeću tehnologiju dizala u svijetu, kao što je četvrta generacija bez dizanja stroja, istu tehnologiju strojeva, moramo napraviti proboj u razmišljanju, potrebama istraživanja i razvoja, moramo surađivati. Suočavajući se s teškom gospodarskom situacijom i prekretnicom tržišta nekretnina, jeste li spremni za rješavanje tog problema? Jeste li spremni za poslovanje? Jesu li naši kolege iz industrije spremni da se bave time?