http___me.seebiz.eu_klimatske-promjene-pogorsavaju-sumske-pozare_ar-179816__1.xml
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As out-of-control wildfires ravage large swathes of Portugal, Spain and northern California, AFP talked to scientists about the ways in which global warming can amplify the problem. Other factors have fuelled a sharp increase in the frequency and intensity of major fires, including human encroachment on wooded areas, and dodgy forest management. "The patient was already sick," in the words of David Bowman, a professor of environmental change biology at the University of Tasmania and a wildfire expert. "But climate change is the accelerant." Fine weather for a fire Any firefighter can tell you the recipe for "conducive fire weather": hot, dry and windy. No surprise, then, that many of the tropical and temperate regions devastated by a surge in forest fires are those predicted in climate models to see higher temperatures and more droughts. "Besides bringing more dry and hot air, climate change—by elevating evaporation rates and drought prevalence—also creates more flammable ecosystems," noted Christopher Williams, director of environmental sciences at Clark University in Massachusetts. In the last 20 years, southern France and Portugal have seen three or four droughts of a magnitude that used to occur only once a century. More fuel Dry weather means more dead trees, shrubs and grass—and more fuel for the fire. "All those extremely dry years create an enormous amount of desiccated biomass," said Michel Vennetier, an engineer at France's National Research of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture (IRSTEA). "That's an ideal combustible." Change of scenery To make matters worse, new species better adapted to semi-arid conditions grow in their place. "Plants that like humidity have disappeared, replaced by more flammable plants that can withstand dry conditions, like rosemary, wild lavender and thyme," said Vennetier. "The change happens quite quickly." Thirsty plants With rising mercury and less rain, water-stressed trees and shrubs send roots deeper into the soil, sucking up every drop of water they can to nourish leaves and needles. That means the moisture in the earth that might have helped to slow a fire sweeping through a forest or garrigue is no longer there. Longer season In the northern hemisphere's temperate zone, the fire season was historically short—July and August, in most places. "Today, the period susceptible to wildfires has extended from June to October," said IRSTEA scientist Thomas Curt, referring to the Mediterranean basin. In California, which only recently emerged from a five-year drought, some experts say there's no longer a season at all—fires can happen year-round. More lightning "The warmer it gets, the more lightning you have," said Mike Flannigan, a professor at the University of Alberta, Canada and director of the Western Partnership for Wildland Fire Science. "Especially in the northern areas, that translates into more fires." Worldwide, he notes, 95 percent of wildfires are started by humans. Weakened jet stream Normal weather patterns over North America and Eurasia depend heavily on the powerful, high-altitude air currents—produced by the contrast between polar and equatorial temperatures—known as the jet stream. But global warming has raised temperatures in the Arctic twice as fast as the global average, weakening those currents. "We are seeing more extreme weather because of what we call blocked ridges, which is a high-pressure system in which air is sinking, getting warmer and drier along the way," said Flannigan. "Firefighters have known for decades that these are conducive to fire activity." One of these blocked ridges, he added, will be parked over the Pacific Northwest for the next ten days, according to forecasts. Unmanageable intensity Climate change not only boosts the likelihood of wildfires, but their intensity as well. "If the fire gets too intense—and we are seeing this in California right now, and saw it in Greece a few weeks ago—there is no direct measure you can take to stop it," said Flannigan. "It's like spitting on a campfire." Beetle infestations With rising temperatures, beetles have moved northward into Canada's boreal forests, wreaking havoc—and killing trees—along the way. "Bark beetle outbreaks temporarily increase forest flammability by increasing the amount of dead material, such as needles," said Williams. Positive feedback Globally, forests hold about 45 percent of Earth's land-locked carbon and soak up a quarter of human greenhouse gas emissions. But as forest die and burn, some of the carbon is released back into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change in a vicious loop that scientists call "positive feedback." Explore further: Study: Warming future means more fire, fewer trees in western biodiversity hotspot
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Naravno, i drugi faktori utječu na sve učestalije i intenzivnije požare, uključujući ljudsko zadiranje u šumska područja i neodgovorno upravljanje šumama. "Pacijent je već bio bolestan", kaže David Bowman, profesor biologije okoliša na Sveučilištu u Tasmaniji i stručnjak za požare. "Međutim, klimatske su promjene ubrzale bolest" Svaki vam vatrogasac može reći kakvi vremenski uvjeti pogoduju razvoju požara: vruće, suho i vjetrovito. Stoga ne iznenađuje da će upravo u onim tropskim i umjerenom toplim područjima koje su poharali naleti šumskih požara, po klimatskim projekcijama, temperature dodatno rasti, a suše biti učestalije. "Osim što donose više suhog i vrućeg zraka, klimatske promjene - ubrzavanjem isparavanja i povećanjem suša - također stvaraju više zapaljive ekosustave", kazao je Christopher Williams, šef odjela ekoloških znanosti na Sveučilištu Clark u Massachusettsu. Na jugu Francuske i Portugala u zadnjih 20 godina bile su tri ili četiri velike suše koje su se u takvom opsegu prethodno pojavljivale samo jednom u stoljeću. Suho vrijeme znači više usahlih stabala, raslinja i trave - i više loživa za vatru. "Sve te ekstremno sušne godine stvaraju veliku količinu sasušene biomase", kaže Michael Vennetier, inženjer na francuskom Nacionalnom centru za istraživanje i tehnologiju okoliša i poljoprivredu (IRSTEA). "To je savršeno zapaljivo". Da stvari budu gore, nove su se vrste bolje prilagodile poluaridnim uvjetima u svojim staništima. "Biljke kojima odgovara vlažnost nestale su. Zamijenile su ih zapaljivije biljke koje mogu izdržati suhe uvjete, poput ružmarina, divlje lavande i timijana", dodaje Vennetier. "Ta promjena se događa prilično brzo". S porastom količine žive i manje kiše, drveća i grmovi kojima nedostaje vode puštaju korijenje dublje u tlo, kako bi dosegle svaku kap vode za svoje lišće i iglice. To znači da više nema vlage u zemlji koja bi mogla usporiti nalet požara kroz šumu ili šikaru. Povijesno gledajući, u umjereno toplim dijelovima sjeverne polutke sezona je požara bila kratka - srpanj i kolovoz. "Danas se razdoblje osjetljivo na požare proširilo od lipnja do listopada", kazao je Thomas Curt s IRSTEA-e govoreći o prostoru Mediterana. Za Kaliforniju, koja je tek nedavno izašla iz razdoblja petogodišnje suše, neki stručnjaci kažu kako ondje uopće nema sezone požara - planuti može cijelu godinu. "Što je toplije, to je više munja", kaže Mike Flannigan, profesor na Sveučilištu Alberta u Kanadi. "To vodi većem broju požara, posebno u sjevernim predjelima". Diljem svijeta 95 posto požara prouzročio je čovjek, dodao je. Uobičajeni obrasci vremena iznad Sjeverne Amerike i Euroazije uvelike ovise o zračnim strujama na velikim visinama - koje nastaju kao rezultat kontrasta između polarnih i ekvatorijalnih tempereatura. Međutim, globalno je zatopljenje povisilo temperature na Arktiku dvostruko brže od globalnog prosjeka, što je oslabilo spomenute struje. A to znači da zrak tone i postaje topliji i suši. "Vatrogasci godinama znaju da je to pogodno za požare" Klimatske promjene ne samo da povećavaju vjerojatnost izbijanja požara, već povećavaju i njihov intenzitet. "Ako požar postane preintenizivan - čemu trenutno svjedočimo u Kaliforniji i što smo vidjeli prije nekoliko tjedana u Grčkoj - ne postoji izravna mjera da se požar zaustavi", rekao je Flannigan. "To je poput pljuvanja na logorsku vatru". S porastom temperature kukci su se premjestili sjeverno u kanadske borealne šume, putem stvarajući pustoš i ubijanjem drveća. "Povećanje broja kukaca privremeno povećava zapaljivost šume tako što povećava količinu mrtvog materijala, poput iglica", kaže Williams. Globalno, šume sadrže 45 posto Zemljina ugljika i upijaju četvrtinu ljudske emisije staklenika. Međutim, kako šume umiru i gore, dio se ugljika vraća u atmosferu, doprinoseći klimatskim promjenama u začaranom krugu.