http___matrixworldhr.wordpress.com_2011_09_16_moguce-_e2_80_9emalo-ledeno-doba_e2_80_9c-za-irsku-koje-bi-moglo-potrajati-11-godina__1.xml
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Solar Science Bipolar Disorder Guest post by Steven Goddard About once every 11 years, the sun’s magnetic poles reverse. However some high profile solar scientists reverse their own polarity more frequently. The BBC reported Wednesday that Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading has established a statistical link between cold weather and low solar activity. The UK and continental Europe could be gripped by more frequent cold winters in the future as a result of low solar activity, say researchers. “By recent standards, we have just had what could be called a very cold winter and I wanted to see if this was just another coincidence or statistically robust,” said lead author Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at the University of Reading, UK. To examine whether there was a link, Professor Lockwood and his co-authors compared past levels of solar activity with the Central England Temperature (CET) record, which is the world’s longest continuous instrumental record of such data. The researchers used the 351-year CET record because it provided data that went back to the beginning of the Maunder Minimum, a prolonged period of very low activity on the Sun that lasted about half a century. The Maunder Minimum occurred in the latter half of the 17th Century – a period when Europe experienced a series of harsh winters, which has been dubbed by some as the Little Ice Age. Following this, there was a gradual increase in solar activity that lasted 300 years. Professor Lockwood explained that studies of activity on the Sun, which provides data stretching back over 9,000 years, showed that it tended to “ramp up quite slowly over about a 300-year period, then drop quite quickly over about a 100-year period”. He said the present decline started in 1985 and was currently about “half way back to a Maunder Minimum condition”. More at the BBC His study was basically a rehash of what many others have done previously over the past few centuries, but he has the BBC’s ear – because in 2007 he prominently claimed just the opposite. No Sun link’ to climate change Tuesday, 10 July 2007 “This should settle the debate,” said Mike Lockwood Similarly, in 2006 David Hathaway at NASA reported that the Sun’s conveyor belt had “slowed to a record low.” May 10, 2006: The Sun’s Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. “It’s off the bottom of the charts,” he says. “This has important repercussions for future solar activity.” Then on March 12, 2010 he reported the exact opposite: March 12, 2010: In today’s issue of Science, NASA solar physicist David Hathaway reports that the top of the sun’s Great Conveyor Belt has been running at record-high speeds for the past five years. In 1810, the great English astronomer William Herschel established a link between sunspot activity and the price of grain in Europe - a proxy for climate. As far as we know, he never reversed polarity on that belief. Modern solar science is just coming around to what Herschel hypothesized 200 years ago. UPDATE: Full Lockwood et al paper at Environmental Research Letters here Abstract. Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650–1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature. We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. Soc. A 466 303–29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades. Figure 2 from the paper:
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Prevela i uredila: Ljubica Šaran Matrix World Budući da se Sunce hladi i da njegova aktivnost slabi, moguće „malo ledeno doba“ bi za Irsku moglo potrajati 11. godina. Prema tvrdnjama britanskih akademika, Irska i Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo bi se trebali pripremiti za oštre zime u nadolazećim godinama, budući da je Sunčeva aktivnost slaba. Prošle zime, koja je bila najhladnija zima u više od 45. godina, Irska je okusila što joj se sprema. Katastrofalne zime 2010. godine, pokazuju Irsku i Veliku Britaniju gotovo u potpunosti okovane ledom i sijegom. Exacta Weather, ustanova sa sjedištem u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu koja se bavi vremenskom prognozom, je izdala upozorenje o oštrom zimskom vremenu koje slijedi u 2011-2012 godini. James Madden, pripadnik Exacte, je kazao da su bili u pravu u posljednje dvije godine. Ove godine ponovno predviđaju rekordne količine snijega i niske temparature. Madden je kazao da će uz slabiju Sunčevu aktivnost, čestice prašine i pepela koje su puštene u nedavnim vulkanskim erupcijama na Islandu i Čileu, isto tako doprinijeti globalnom opadanju temperatura. „Emisije pretvorenog sumporovog dioksida iz vulkanskih erupcija mogu isto tako uzrokovati refleksiju Sunčeve svjetlosti u atmosferi,“ kazao je Madden. Kometarna prašina je električno nabijena i uzrokuje neznatno usporavanje Zemljine rotacije. Usporavanje rotacije smanjuje magnetsko polje, što dovodi do poticanja vulkanskih aktivnosti i toga da je Zemlja otvorenija opasnijim kozmičkim radijacijama. Vulkanska aktivnost ispod mora zagrijava morsku vodu, koja zagrijava donje slojeve atmosfere i puni ih s vlagom. Vlaga onda odlazi u hladnije gornje slojeve atmosfere i pridonosi smrtonosnoj mješavini koja neminovno dovodi do ledenog doba, kojem na kratko vrijeme prethodi nagli porast stakleničkih plinova i „vrućih džepova“ u donjim slojevima atmosfere, te teške kiše, tuču, snijeg i poplave. On je kazao da će zima 2011-2012 „biti izuzetno hladna i snježna sa temperaturama ispod ništice. U potpunosti očekujem da ću vidjeti nove rekorde i da će visoravni Škotske biti još jednom posebno teško pogođene. Stoga je od iznimne važnosti da se sada započne s pripremama u smislu visokih računa za energiju i porasta svjesnosti među najranjivijm i najstarijim člnovima društva.“ Istraživanje objavljeno u časopisu Environmental Research Letters pokazuje da su hladne zime u Irskoj i Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu učestalije kada je Sunčeva aktivnost niska. Istraživači su izmjerili temperature tijekom posljednjih zima. Njihovi rezultati pokazuju da je vrijeme izrazito hladnije u odnosu na dugoročne prosječne temperature. Koristili su blok podataka o Centralnim Temperaturama Engleske (CET) da bi ispitali svoje rezultate, taj blok podataka potječe iz sredine 17. stoljeća. Suautor Mike Lockwood, profesor na Sveučilištu Reading koji se bavi fizikom svemirskog okoliša, je pisao o Sunčevoj aktivnost i njegovom utjecaju na klimu. On je prema izvještajima Irish Weather Online-a napisao: “Sunčeva aktivnost je tijekom trenutnog minimuma Sunčevih pjega pala na razine koje su nepoznate još od početka 20. stoljeća. Maunderov minimum (između 1650 – 1700) je bio produljena epizoda smanjene Sunčeve aktivnosti koja se poklopila sa oštrijim zimama u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu i kontinentalnoj Europi. Motivirani nedavnim relativno hladnim zimama u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu, istražujemo moguću vezu s Sunčevom aktivnošću.”