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Argentine authorities, industry players and unions are expected to sign this week a long awaited federal mining agreement that unifies existing legislation across the country, as part of an ongoing effort to jump-start investment in the sector. The nation, once a favourite of mining investors, has fallen behind its neighbours Chile and Peru despite containing rich deposits of copper, gold, silver and zinc. Until now, local regulations were not only tough, but also diverse, with seven of the country’s 23 provinces having a full ban on the use of cyanide over to environmental concerns. Since taking office in late 2015, President Mauricio Macri has been adopting measures to revive the country’s mining industry. One of the first ones was eliminating a 5% tax on mining and energy companies in February last year. He also revoked a prohibition on foreign mining companies sending profits made in Argentina out of the country. Now, his administration is about to pass a nationwide mining law in hopes to pave the way for Macri’s most ambitious goal — to double investment in the sector to $25 billion in eight years. Under the previous President Cristina Fernandez, who increased the state’s role, Argentina received only $10 billion for the 2007-15 period. During the same years, Chile’s mining investments totalled $80bn and Peru’s $52bn. The new law, local paper La Opinión Austral reports (in Spanish), is supposed to provide tax stability to investors, help avoid conflicts with local governments and win over the support of local communities for mining, in the same fashion as the previous government did with the oil industry. But analysts at BMI Research warn of imminent risks that could thwart Mecri’s plans: “Weaker-than-expected Q117 economic data suggests downs ide risks to our forecast for real GDP growth of 3.1% in 20 17 and the possibility of policy backsliding that will undermine growth potential,” they write. “If organic growth does not solidify over the coming months, Macri’s coalition could be weakened in October mid-term elections, which could see economic policies inch toward the more interventionist policies of his predecessors (…) In terms of the mining industry, any shift away from Macri’s business friendly reforms would deter investment and the uncertainty leading up to the mid-term elections will likely delay some final investment decisions .” BMI’s experts say the other risk will come from the increased scrutiny of miners’ water usage, which is likely to heighten tensions between companies and local communities and leading to additional regulations. “While we expect the focus on supporting mining industry growth at the federal level to offset provincial issues, local opposition and political pressure could hurt Argentina’s attractiveness as a mining investment destination,” BMI concludes. Post time: May-10-2017
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Argentinski vlasti, industrija igrači i sindikati se očekuje da će potpisati ovaj tjedan dugo očekivani savezni rudarstvo ugovor koji objedinjuje postojeće zakone u cijeloj zemlji, kao dio kontinuiranog napora da skok-start ulaganja u tom sektoru. Nacija, nekada omiljeni rudarskih investitora, zaostaje za svojim susjedima Čilea i Perua, unatoč sadrži bogate naslage bakra, zlata, srebra i cinka. Do sada su lokalni propisi nisu bili samo teško, ali i raznolika, sa sedam od 23 provincija u zemlji koje imaju potpunu zabranu korištenja cijanida preko do brige za okoliš. Otkad je preuzeo dužnost krajem 2015. godine, predsjednik Mauricio Macri je usvajanje mjera za oživljavanje rudarska industrija u zemlji. Jedan od prvima je eliminiranje 5% poreza na rudarskih i energetskih kompanija u veljači prošle godine. On je također ukinuta zabranu stranih rudarskih tvrtki slanje ostvari dobit u Argentini iz zemlje. Sada, njegova administracija je oko proći zemlje rudarski zakon u nadi da će otvoriti put za Macri najambiciozniji cilj - da bračni ulaganja u sektor 25 milijardi $ u osam godina. U prethodnom predsjedniku Cristina Fernandez, koji je povećan ulogu države , Argentina dobila samo 10 milijardi $ za razdoblje 2007-15. Tijekom iste godine, Čile je rudarstvo ulaganja iznosila 80bn $ i Peruu $ 52bn. Novi zakon, lokalne novine La Opinion Austral izvješća (na španjolskom), trebao bi osigurati stabilnost poreza investitorima, ne bi došlo do sukoba s jedinicama lokalne samouprave i pridobiti podršku lokalne zajednice za rudarstvo, na isti način kao što je prethodna vlada učinila s naftne industrije. No, analitičari BMI istraživanja upozoravaju na predstojeći rizike koji bi mogli odmažu Mecri planove: „Slabiji od očekivanog Q117 ekonomski podaci pokazuju padova IDE rizike za naše prognoze za realni rast BDP-a od 3,1% u 20 17 i mogućnost politika odmetnica koja će potkopati potencijal rasta”, pišu. „Ako organski rast ne udružiti u narednim mjesecima, Macri koalicija mogla biti oslabljena u listopadu srednjoročnim izborima, koji bi mogao vidjeti ekonomske politike palac prema više intervencionističkih politiku svojih prethodnika (...) Što se tiče rudarske industrije, bilo pomaka daleko od Macri poslovanja prijateljski reforme bi odgađa ulaganja i neizvjesnost vodi do srednjoročnih izbora vjerojatno će odgoditi neke konačne investicijske odluke.” BMI-a stručnjaci kažu druga opasnost dolazi od povećanog nadzora korištenja vode rudara, koji će se vjerojatno pojačati napetosti između tvrtki i lokalnih zajednica, što dovodi do dodatnih propisa. „Iako očekujemo da će fokus na potporu rast rudarstva na saveznoj razini kako bi se nadoknadio pokrajinskim pitanjima, lokalno protivljenje i politički pritisak može nauditi Argentini atraktivnost kao rudarski ulaganja destinacija”, BMI, zaključuje. Vrijeme posta: May-10-2017