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Transcript 0:16 I still remember the day in school when our teacher told us that the world population had become three billion people, and that was in 1960. I'm going to talk now about how world population has changed from that year and into the future, but I will not use digital technology, as I've done during my first five TEDTalks. Instead, I have progressed, and I am, today, launching a brand new analog teaching technology that I picked up from IKEA: this box. 0:53 This box contains one billion people. And our teacher told us that the industrialized world, 1960, had one billion people. In the developing world, she said, they had two billion people. And they lived away then. There was a big gap between the one billion in the industrialized world and the two billion in the developing world. In the industrialized world, people were healthy, educated, rich, and they had small families. And their aspiration was to buy a car. And in 1960, all Swedes were saving to try to buy a Volvo like this. This was the economic level at which Sweden was. But in contrast to this, in the developing world, far away, the aspiration of the average family there was to have food for the day. They were saving to be able to buy a pair of shoes. There was an enormous gap in the world when I grew up. And this gap between the West and the rest has created a mindset of the world, which we still use linguistically when we talk about "the West" and "the Developing World." But the world has changed, and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it. 2:15 And that's what I'm going to show you, because since 1960 what has happened in the world up to 2010 is that a staggering four billion people have been added to the world population. Just look how many. The world population has doubled since I went to school. And of course, there's been economic growth in the West. A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy, so the Western population moved over to here. And now their aspiration is not only to have a car. Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination and they want to fly. So this is where they are today. And the most successful of the developing countries, they have moved on, you know, and they have become emerging economies, we call them. They are now buying cars. And what happened a month ago was that the Chinese company, Geely, they acquired the Volvo company, and then finally the Swedes understood that something big had happened in the world. (Laughter) 3:20 So there they are. And the tragedy is that the two billion over here that is struggling for food and shoes, they are still almost as poor as they were 50 years ago. The new thing is that we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here, which are also becoming emerging economies, because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated, and they already also have two to three children per woman, as those [richer also] have. And their aspiration now is, of course, to buy a bicycle, and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also. But this is the world we have today, no longer any gap. But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest, to the very richest over here is wider than ever. But there is a continuous world from walking, biking, driving, flying -- there are people on all levels, and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle. This is the new world we have today in 2010. 4:26 And what will happen in the future? Well, I'm going to project into 2050. I was in Shanghai recently, and I listened to what's happening in China, and it's pretty sure that they will catch up, just as Japan did. All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with one to two or three percent. [But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here. They will start flying. And these lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries, they will also forge forwards economically. And if, but only if, we invest in the right green technology -- so that we can avoid severe climate change, and energy can still be relatively cheap -- then they will move all the way up here. And they will start to buy electric cars. This is what we will find there. 5:23 So what about the poorest two billion? What about the poorest two billion here? Will they move on? Well, here population [growth] comes in because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman, family planning is widely used, and population growth is coming to an end. Here [among the poorest], population is growing. So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades, increase to three billion, and they will thereafter increase to four billion. There is nothing -- but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen -- that can stop this [growth] from happening. Because we already have this [growth] in process. But if, and only if, [the poorest] get out of poverty, they get education, they get improved child survival, they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here, then population growth will stop in 2050. We cannot have people on this level looking for food and shoes because then we get continued population growth. 6:23 And let me show you why by converting back to the old-time digital technology. Here I have on the screen my country bubbles. Every bubble is a country. The size is population. The colors show the continent. The yellow on there is the Americas; dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe; green is the Middle East and this light blue is South Asia. That's India and this is China. Size is population. Here I have children per woman: two children, four children, six children, eight children -- big families, small families. The year is 1960. And down here, child survival, the percentage of children surviving childhood up to starting school: 60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90, and almost 100 percent, as we have today in the wealthiest and healthiest countries. But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960: one billion Western world here -- high child-survival, small families -- and all the rest, the rainbow of developing countries, with very large families and poor child survival. 7:29 What has happened? I start the world. Here we go. Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing? They get soap, hygiene, education, vaccination, penicillin and then family planning. Family size is decreasing. [When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease, and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East is falling down there [to small families]. Look, Bangladesh catching up with India. The whole emerging world joins the Western world with good child survival and small family size, but we still have the poorest billion. Can you see the poorest billion, those [two] boxes I had over here? They are still up here. And they still have a child survival of only 70 to 80 percent, meaning that if you have six children born, there will be at least four who survive to the next generation. And the population will double in one generation. 8:22 So the only way of really getting world population [growth] to stop is to continue to improve child survival to 90 percent. That's why investments by Gates Foundation, UNICEF and aid organizations, together with national government in the poorest countries, are so good; because they are actually helping us to reach a sustainable population size of the world. We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things. Child survival is the new green. It's only by child survival that we will stop population growth. And will it happen? Well, I'm not an optimist, neither am I a pessimist. I'm a very serious "possibilist." It's a new category where we take emotion apart, and we just work analytically with the world. It can be done. We can have a much more just world. With green technology and with investments to alleviate poverty, and global governance, the world can become like this. 9:25 And look at the position of the old West. Remember when this blue box was all alone, leading the world, living its own life. This will not happen [again]. The role of the old West in the new world is to become the foundation of the modern world -- nothing more, nothing less. But it's a very important role. Do it well and get used to it. 9:49 Thank you very much. 9:51 (Applause)
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Transcript Translated by Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG Reviewed by Predrag Pale 0:16 Još uvijek se sjećam dana u školi kada nam je učiteljica rekla da je svjetska populacija dostigla tri milijarde ljudi. A to je bilo 1960. A ja ću sada govoriti o tome kako se svjetska populacija mijenjala od te godine pa sve do u budućnost. Ali neću koristiti digitalnu tehnologiju kao što sam radio u svojih prvih pet TED govora. Umjesto toga, ja sam napredovao. I ja, danas, objavljujem sasvim novu analognu tehnologiju za poučavanje koji sam našao u IKEA-i: ovu kutiju. 0:53 Ova kutija sadrži jednu milijardu ljudi. A naša učiteljica nam je rekla da je industrijalizirani svijet, 1960., imao jednu milijardu ljudi. A svijet u razvoju, rekla je, ima dvije milijarde ljudi. I oni su onda živjeli daleko. Bio je veliki jaz između jedne milijarde industrijaliziranog svijeta i dvije milijarde svijeta u razvoju. U industrijaliziranom svijetu, ljudi su bili zdravi, obrazovani, bogati, i imali su male obitelji. A njihova ambicija je bila kupiti automobil. I u 1960-im svi Šveđani su štedjeli kako bi mogli kupiti Volvo poput ovog. To je bila ekonomska razina na kojoj se nalazila Švedska. A u suprotnosti s time, u svijetu u razvoju, negdje daleko, ambicija prosječne obitelji je bila da se prehrane taj dan. I oni su štedjeli kako bi mogli kupiti par cipela. Postojao je enorman jaz u svijetu kada sam ja odrastao. A taj jaz između Zapada i ostatka svijeta je stvarao mentalni sklop svijeta koji još lingvistički koristimo kada govorimo o "Zapadu" i "Svijetu u razvoju". Ali svijet se promijenio, i odavno je trebalo promijeniti taj mentalni sklop, tu klasifikaciju svijeta, i razumjeti ga kakav je sada. 2:15 A to je ono što ću vam pokazati. Jer od 1960. ono što se do 2010. dogodilo svijetu jest da je vrtoglavih četiri milijarde ljudi dodano svijetskoj populaciji. Pogledajte samo koliko. Svjetska populacija se udvostručila od kada sam ja išao u školu. I naravno, na Zapadu se dogodio ekonomski rast. Veliki broj poduzeća je pomogao rastu gospodarstva, tako se populacija sa zapada pomaknula ovdje. I sada njihova ambicija nije da samo imaju automobil. Sada žele provesti praznike negdje daleko i žele tamo letjeti. Evo gdje su danas. A najuspješnije zemlje u razvoju, su se pomaknule, također. Zovemo ih "nova, rastuća gospodarstva". I sada oni kupuju automobile. I ono što se dogodilo prije mjesec dana jest da je kineska kompanija, Geely, preuzela kompaniju Volvo. I konačno su Šveđani shvatili da se nešto veliko događa u svijetu. (Smijeh) 3:20 Eto tu su oni. I tragedija je što se dvije milijarde ovih ovdje [još uvijek] bori za hranu i cipele, oni su gotovo jednako siromišni kao što su bili prije 50 godina. Nova stvar je da imamo najveću gomilu milijardi, tri milijarde ovdje, koji također postaju ekonomije u razvoju, jer su prilično zdravi, relativno dobro obrazovani, i oni jednako tako imaju dvoje ili troje djece po ženi, kao i oni bogatiji. I njihova ambicija sada je, naravno, kupiti bicikl, a onda bi kasnije željeli imati i motor, također. Ali to je svijet koji imamo danas. Nema više jazova. Ali je razlika između siromašnih ovdje, najsiromašnijih, do najbogatijih ovdje, veća nego ikada. Međutim postoji kontinuitet u svijetu od hodanja, vožnje biciklom, voženje automobilom do letenja -- postoje ljudi na svim razinama. A većina ljudi je negdje u sredini. Ovo je novi svijet kakav imamo danas u 2010. 4:26 A što će se dogoditi u budućnosti? Pokušati ću predvidjeti do 2050. Bio sam u Šangaju nedavno. I slušao sam što se događa u Kini. I prilično je sigurno kako će nas sustignuti, kao što je i Japan učinio. Sve projekcije kažu da će ovi ovdje rasti samo jedan do dva ili tri posto. Ali ovi drugi rastu sa sedam, osam posto. I onda će oni završiti ovdje. Oni će početi letjeti. A ove zemlje s nižim ili srednjim primanjima, zemlje u razvoju, one će također krenuti ekonomski naprijed. I ako, ali samo ako, investiramo u prave zelene tehnologije -- tako da izbjegnemo ozbiljne klimatske promjene, i da energija može biti još uvijek relativno jeftina -- onda će se oni pomaknuti skroz ovamo. I oni će početi kupovati električne automobile. To ćemo pronaći ovdje. 5:23 A što je s najsiromašnije dvije milijarde? Što je s najsiromašnije dvije milijarde ovdje? Hoće li se pomaknuti? Ovdje je rast stanovništva jer tu [među ekonomijama u razvoju] već imamo samo dvoje do troje djece po ženi, planiranje obitelji se naširoko koristi, i populacijski rast dolazi svom kraju. [Ali ovdje među najsiromašnijima], populacija raste. Tako će se ove [najsiromašnije] dvije milijarde, u slijedeća dva desetljeća, povećati na tri milijarde. I onda će se nakon toga povećati na četiri milijarde. Ne postoji ništa -- osim nuklearnog rata kakvog svijet još nije vidjeo -- što može zaustaviti taj rast. Jer taj rast već imamo u procesu. Ali ako, i jedino ako, najsiromašniji izađu iz siromaštva, dobiju obrazovanje, smanje smrtnost djece, mogu kupiti bicikl i mobitel i doći [živjeti] ovdje, onda će rast stanovništva stati 2050. Ne možemo imati ljude na ovoj razini koji traže hranu i cipele, jer ćemo onda imati stalan rast populacije. 6:23 I dozvolite da vam pokažem zašto korištenjem starinske digitalne tehnologije. Ovdje na ekranu imam svoje balone zemalja. Svaki balon je zemlja. Veličina je broj stanovnika. Boje pokazuju kontinente. Žuta predstavlja Amerike; tamno plava Afriku; smeđa je Europa; zelena Bliski Istok; a ova svijetlo plava je Južna Azija. Ovo je Indija, a ovo je Kina. Veličina je populacija. Ovdje imam broj djece po ženi, dvoje djece, četvero djece, šestero djece, osmero djece -- velike obitelji [nasuprot] malih obitelji. Godina je 1960. I ovdje dolje, preživljavanje djece, postotak djece koja prežive djetinjstvo do početka škole. 60%, 70%, 80%, 90, i gotovo 100%, kao što imamo danas u najbogatijim i najzdravijim zemljama. Ali pogledajte, ovo je svijet o kojem je moj učitelj pričao 1960. Jedna milijarda zapadnjaka ovdje, visoko preživljavanje djece, male obitelji. I svi ostali, duga zemalja u razvoju, s velikim obiteljima i slabim preživljavanjem djece. 7:29 Što se dogodilo? Pokrećem svijet. Idemo. Možete li vidjeti, kako godine prolaze, preživljavanje djece se povećava? Oni dobivaju sapun, higijenu, obrazovanje, cijepljenje i penicilin. I onda planiranje obitelji. Veličina obitelji se smanjuje. Kad dođu do 90% preživljavanja djece, obitelji se počnu smanjivati. I većina arapskih zemlja na Bliskom Istoku pada ovdje dolje [do malenih obitelji]. Pogledajte, Bangladeš sustiže Indiju. [Sve] rastuće ekonomije [u] svijetu pridružuju se zapadnom svijetu s dobrom stopom djece koja preživljavaju i malim obiteljima. Ali još uvijek imamo najsiromašniju milijardu. Vidite li najsiromašniju milijardu, ove [dvije] kutije koje sam imao ovdje? Oni su još uvijek ovdje gore. I oni još uvijek imaju stopu preživljavanja djece od samo 70 do 80%, što znači da ako rodite šestero djece, najmanje četvero će preživjeti do slijedeće generacije. A populacija će se udvostručiti unutar jedne generacije. 8:22 Tako je jedini način za zaustavljanje rasta svjetskog stanovništva kontinuirano poboljšavanje stope preživljavanja djece do 90%. Zato su [zdravstvene] investicije fondacije Gates, UNICEF-a i drugih organizacija za pomoć, zajedno s nacionalnim vladama najsiromašnijih zemalja, tako dobre. Jer one nam u stvari pomažu dosegnuti održivu veličinu svjetske populacije. Možemo se zaustaviti na devet milijardi ako napravimo prave stvari. Preživljavanje djece je nova obveza. Jedino kroz preživljavanje djece zaustaviti ćemo rast populacije. A hoće li se dogoditi? Ja nisam optimist, niti sam pesimist. Ja sam jako ozbiljni "mogućnoist". To je nova kategorija u kojoj emocije stavljamo po strani, i jednostavno analitički pristupamo svijetu. Može se napraviti. Možemo imati puno pravedniji svijet. Sa zelenim tehnologijama i investicijama koje iskorjenjuju siromaštvo, i s dobrim globalnim vladanjem, svijet može postati ovakav. 9:25 I pogledajte položaj starog Zapada. Sjetite se kad je ova plava kutija bila sama, vodeći svijet, živeći vlastiti život. To se neće ponoviti. Uloga starog Zapada u novom svijetu jest da postane temeljem modernog svijeta -- ništa više, ništa manje. Ali to je jako važna uloga. Radite je dobro i naviknite se na nju. 9:49 Hvala vam puno. 9:51 (Pljesak)