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Exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another currency. In other words, it is the rate at which two currencies can be exchanged. There are several factors which affect and decide the exchange rate of currencies, causing frequent fluctuations in the rate. Sometimes the exchange rate may change over a period of some months or years and sometimes fluctuations occur within a span of some hours and days. Theoretically, in a free market, the rate of exchange is determined by the demand for and supply of foreign currency. The equilibrium rate of exchange is attained at the point where demand for foreign currency is exactly equal to it’s supply. The demand and supply of foreign currency arise from international trade, investments and other international transactions. For example- If India imports some goods from the US, India will require US dollars to pay for those imports. This is demand for dollars and supply of Rupees in exchange, in the foreign exchange market. India will buy dollars against Rupees to pay for its imports. Whereas, if India exports some goods or services to the US, there will be a demand for Indian Rupees by the US to pay for its imports from India. This is basic economics, that demand and supply keep adjusting till they become equal and the equilibrium rate is achieved. But this ideal equilibrium rate is difficult to achieve because demand and supply are affected by several factors, which cause frequent fluctuations and adjustments in the exchange rate, fixing it at a rate which may not be the equilibrium rate. Factors influencing the rate of exchange- International trade- Trade of goods and services between countries is the major reason for the demand and supply of foreign currencies. The value or strength or weakness of a countries currency in terms of other currencies depends on its trade with those countries. If a country’s imports are higher, the demand for foreign currency in this country will be high. Higher demand for foreign currency means high value of foreign currency and low value of the domestic currency. This is a typical case for underdeveloped countries which rely on imports for development needs. The current account balance (deficit or surplus) thus reflects the strength and weakness of the domestic currency. Capital movements- International investments in the form of Foreign direct investment (FDI) and Foreign institutional investments (FII) have become the most important factors affecting the exchange rate in today’s open world economy. Countries which attract large capital inflows through foreign investments, will witness an appreciation in its domestic currency as its demand rises. Outflow of capital would mean a depreciation of domestic currency. Change in prices- Domestic inflation or deflation affects the exchange rate by affecting the demand and supply of domestic currency in the foreign exchange market. For example, if prices in India go up, making Indian goods costlier, the demand for Indian goods will do down. When exports go down, the demand for rupee will fall, causing depreciation in its exchange value. Speculations- Uncertainties are always there in the financial market. Speculators predict about the future exchange rate based on various happenings in the world, in various countries. Speculators study the various ups and downs of a country and its resilience to international happenings and forecast the possible future exchange rate based on a particular countries economic strengths and weaknesses. If the speculators expect a fall in the value of a currency in the near future, they will sell that currency and start buying the other currency that they expect to appreciate. The selling of the former currency will thus increase its supply in the foreign exchange market and bring down its value. The other currency appreciates as its demand increases. Strength of the economy- If the economic fundamentals of a country are strong, the exchange rate of its domestic currency remains stable and strong. Fiscal balance, international current account balance, international liabilities, foreign exchange reserves, resilience to international trade fluctuations, GDP, inflation rate all are indicators of a country’s economic strength. Government policies- In countries where there is fixed or managed float, the central bank becomes an important player in the foreign exchange market. The bank influences the value of the currency by its market operations like buying and selling of bills and currencies. The bank rate also influences the exchange rate by influencing investments and thereby the demand and supply of the domestic currency. Stock exchange operations- Stock exchange operations in foreign securities, debentures, stocks and shares, influence the demand and supply of related currencies, thus influencing their exchange rate. Political factors- Political scenario of the country ultimately decides the strength of the country. Stable efficient government at the centre will encourage positive development in the country, creating successful-investors/”title=”investor ” >investor confidence and a good image in the international market. An economy with a strong, positive image will obviously have a strong domestic currency. This is the reason why speculations rise considerably during the parliament elections, with various predictions of the future government and its policies. In 1998, the Indian rupee depreciated against the dollar due to the American sanctions after India conducted the Pokharan nuclear test. Value of a currency is thus not a simple result of its demand and supply, but a complex mix of multiple factors influencing the demand and supply. It’s a tight rope walk for any country to maintain a strong, stable currency, with policies taking care of conflicting demands like inflation and export promotion, welcoming foreign investments and avoiding an appreciation of the domestic currency, all at the same time.
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Kretanje tečaja Tečaj neke valute predstavlja odnos između jedinice jedne valute i iznosa druge valute u koju se ta valuta može promijeniti u određenom trenutku Tečajna lista > Valute: Euro, Dolar, Franak > Tečaj eura, tečaj dolara, tečaj franka i tečaj kune Tečaj se formira pod utjecajem ponude i potražnje na tržištu, te se definira u onoj točki gdje se potražnja i ponuda stranih sredstava plaćanja nalaze u ravnoteži. Devizni tečaj raste kada se poveća ponuda ili smanji potražnja stranih sredstava plaćanja, a opada u suprotnom slučaju. Postupak povećanja vrijednosti domaće valute u odnosu stranu naziva se aprecijacija, dok se postupak smanjena vrijednosti domaće valute u odnosu na stranu naziva deprecijacija. Oba pojma su reakcije koje se događaju specifično na deviznom tržištu. Deprecijacija stimulira povećanje izvoza, jer radi smanjena vrijednosti domaće valute više dobara se izvozi zbog povoljnije cijene. Aprecijacija, s druge strane, povećava cijenu izvoznih dobara što smanjuje izvoz, ali isto tako omogućuje povoljniju kupovinu stranih proizvoda što stimulira uvoz. Monetarne vlasti neke države (u Hrvatskoj to je Hrvatska Narodna Banka) također imaju znamenite instrumente za utjecanje na tečaj; devalvacija i revalvacija su jedne od tih. Devalvacija predstavlja proces smanjenja službene valute neke zemlje u odnosu na valutu neke države ili zlata, dok revalvacija predstavlja povećanje službene valute. Devalvacija se uglavnom provodi samo onda kada je država na to primorana te donosi mnogo negativnih konotacija, dok revalvacija predstavlja jačanje domaće valute što je poželjno za jačanje nacionalne ekonomije. U kratkom roku kretanje deviznog tečaja uglavnom ovisi o promjenama relativnih dohodaka, promjenama kamatnih stopama, političkim događanjima, spekulativnim razlozima i promjenama očekivanja, a dugoročno devizni tečaj ovisi o relativnim cijenama dobara. Zbog mnogih poznatijih varijabli puno je lakše predvidjeti kretanje tečaja u kratkom roku nego u dugom roku, čije predviđanje često spada u čista nagađanja i lutriju. Radi konstantnog mijenjanja tečaja i mnogo varijabli koje utječu na istog neizbježan je pojam tečajnog rizika. On predstavlja neizvjesnost vrijednosti domaće valute u odnosu na vrijednost strane valute radi promjene deviznog tečaja. Pod utjecajem raznih ekonomsko i političkih činilaca te neprestanih promjena potražnje i ponude za devizama, devizni tečaj podložan je učestalim fluktuacijama koje potom dovode do odstupanja stvarne vrijednosti jedne (ugovorene) valute i druge valute (u kojoj se vrši isplaćivanje). To predstavlja visok rizik jer promjena tečaja na taj način može realno smanjiti ili uvećati odnos vrijednosti dviju valuta, a samim time i iznos ugovorene veličine obveza ili potraživanja (npr. iznosa otplate kredita). Upravo zbog toga je učestala navika da prilikom zaključivanja ugovora o isplati osiguranja, kredita ili drugih oblika plaćanja, ugovorne strane dogovaraju i valutnu klauzulu kako bi se zaštitili od tečajnog rizika. Pri tom se vrlo često tečajni rizik prebacuje s banke na klijenta. Primjer su stambeni krediti vezani uz švicarski franak, pri čemu su poslijedice promjene tečaja preuzeli građani koji su uzeli takve kredite. Povezani članak: Predviđanje tečaja najznačajnijih valuta Tečaj kune je blago oslabio u odnosu na tečaj eura, ali i euro slabi u odnosu na dolar i jen. Tečaj dolara je porastao u odnosu na tečaj eura u posljednih godinu dana. Švicarski franak je i dalje jak, što otežava vraćanje kredita vezanih uz tečaj franka Tečaj kune je uslijed nastavka ekonomske krize tijekom zadnjih godinu dana oslabio prema euru, dolaru i švicarskom franku.