<p>There is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/12/29/how-often-do-meteoroids-hit-the-moon/#444947a6f2be" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this</a> source that claims 2800 kg of meteor material lands on the moon everyday.  They break down that amount to determine an average area per strike. There have been other studies like <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3835015/A-facelift-Moon-81-000-years.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this one</a> and <a href="http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/space-rocks-hit-moon-often-1310201623/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this report.</a>  I sure can't vouch for the accuracy of this first report but it's from a reputable (NASA) source.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-01-12T17:29:24.770Z
2018-01-12T17:41:58.113Z
2018-01-12T17:41:58.113Z
Natsfan
<p>According to this article <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds/</a> a science professor at Tulane University made a paper to calculate the probability of a person being hit by a meteor on Earth . And also an astronomer made a calculation (not mentioning the procedure) with a similar figure. My question is, since the moon has no atmosphere and more meteors reach the surface, is there any mathematical formula, paper, etc. to calculate how likely a spot in moon's surface it's likely to be hit by a meteor? </p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-06-24T13:11:40.247Z
Related : [How many meteors hit the moon every day...](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/a/7840/10196)
StephenG - Help Ukraine
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-06-24T14:47:02.943Z
so, the answer by 2006 was "we dont know yet"? And the probability of hitting a spot looks like it is calculated by spliting how many meteors actually reach the surface divided by the surfaces area or something like that? I thought there might be a formula counting the amount of asteroids vouyering a region of space, the probability of being attracted or getting in the course of a planet, the probability of reaching the surface because of the atmosphere composition, density, etc or some ecuations or formulas with variables like those, so you could apply it to other planets if u know some data
Pablo
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-07-21T16:24:08.657Z
If you following the bread crumbs, you'll see the professor at Tulane didn't do any such calculation, he merely referenced a calculation from "Abbott (2012)". However, he provides no further information about how/what Abbott (2012) is and I can't find a reference to such a paper. Furthermore, I'm willing to bet such calculations are only based loosely on physics and more so on statistics and reports, i.e., they estimate the frequency of occurrence based on how many reports there are of it occurring.
zephyr
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-07-21T17:05:35.190Z
You can calculate this just from looking at the craters on the moon. Except for the parts that had lavaflow in the past, the craters should have existed since the formation. You just need to count the number of craters there to get an idea of the probability.
A. C. A. C.
<the-moon><meteor><impact-probability>
is there any mathematical formula, paper or anything that shows the probability of a meteor hitting a particular spot of moon's surface?
Pablo
# is there any mathematical formula, paper or anything that shows the probability of a meteor hitting a particular spot of moon's surface?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2017-06-24)

According to this article <http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds/> a science professor at Tulane University made a paper to calculate the probability of a person being hit by a meteor on Earth . And also an astronomer made a calculation (not mentioning the procedure) with a similar figure. My question is, since the moon has no atmosphere and more meteors reach the surface, is there any mathematical formula, paper, etc. to calculate how likely a spot in moon's surface it's likely to be hit by a meteor?

**Tags:** the-moon, meteor, impact-probability

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Related : [How many meteors hit the moon every day...](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/a/7840/10196)  
> **username_0**: so, the answer by 2006 was "we dont know yet"? And the probability of hitting a spot looks like it is calculated by spliting how many meteors actually reach the surface divided by the surfaces area or something like that? I thought there might be a formula counting the amount of asteroids vouyering a region of space, the probability of being attracted or getting in the course of a planet, the probability of reaching the surface because of the atmosphere composition, density, etc or some ecuations or formulas with variables like those, so you could apply it to other planets if u know some data  
> **username_2**: If you following the bread crumbs, you'll see the professor at Tulane didn't do any such calculation, he merely referenced a calculation from "Abbott (2012)". However, he provides no further information about how/what Abbott (2012) is and I can't find a reference to such a paper. Furthermore, I'm willing to bet such calculations are only based loosely on physics and more so on statistics and reports, i.e., they estimate the frequency of occurrence based on how many reports there are of it occurring.  
> **username_3**: You can calculate this just from looking at the craters on the moon. Except for the parts that had lavaflow in the past, the craters should have existed since the formation. You just need to count the number of craters there to get an idea of the probability.  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_4 on 2018-01-12. Score: 3 | Accepted answer

There is [this](https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/12/29/how-often-do-meteoroids-hit-the-moon/#444947a6f2be) source that claims 2800 kg of meteor material lands on the moon everyday. They break down that amount to determine an average area per strike. There have been other studies like [this one](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3835015/A-facelift-Moon-81-000-years.html) and [this report.](http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/space-rocks-hit-moon-often-1310201623/) I sure can't vouch for the accuracy of this first report but it's from a reputable (NASA) source.


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