<p>The International Meteor Organization publishes an annual <a href="https://www.imo.net/resources/calendar/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Meteor Shower Calendar</a>.
The PDF document for 2020 predicts a Quadrantid peak on January 4, 08:20 UT, and says:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The peak is short-lived with an average duration (full width at half-maximum, FWHM – that is the period with ZHR above half of the peak level) of about four hours.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Unfortunately it only gives peak durations for a few showers.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-01-03T18:30:55.597Z
Thanks, that's definitely the one I wanted to look up at the moment, but alas the FWHM appears only once in that PDF. I'm still looking for "some place to go to see some *predictions of many* of these envelopes"
uhoh
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-01-03T15:36:16.933Z
2020-01-03T15:36:16.933Z
Mike G
<p>For a given shower the rate hitting the Earth's atmosphere versus time is usually a peak with a width of a few days, though <a href="https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/q/34018/7982">there are some exceptional unicors</a>. </p>

<p>Is there a place where I can view this envelope? </p>

<p>The context here would be to have some idea for a given year of a given shower how much less intense it would be one, two, or three days before or after maximum. I'm not looking for something precise or location dependent, but just to get an idea how critical it is seeing it on the "best" night versus a more opportune night.</p>

<p>Is there some place to go to see some predictions of many of these envelopes in order to look up a given one, or to see which ones are narrow and which ones are wide?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-01-03T15:03:56.130Z
How long in advance do you want these predictions?   Most of the space/science sites and magazines publish pretty solid predictions in the week or so prior to the event.  Trace back from there to find the models -- comet trails don't change a whole lot year to year.
Carl Witthoft
<solar-system><meteor-shower><prediction>
For any given meteor shower in a given year (e.g. Quadrantids, now) where can I see a rough prediction of how many days it will last?
uhoh
# For any given meteor shower in a given year (e.g. Quadrantids, now) where can I see a rough prediction of how many days it will last?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2020-01-03)

For a given shower the rate hitting the Earth's atmosphere versus time is usually a peak with a width of a few days, though [there are some exceptional unicors](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/q/34018/7982).

Is there a place where I can view this envelope?

The context here would be to have some idea for a given year of a given shower how much less intense it would be one, two, or three days before or after maximum. I'm not looking for something precise or location dependent, but just to get an idea how critical it is seeing it on the "best" night versus a more opportune night.

Is there some place to go to see some predictions of many of these envelopes in order to look up a given one, or to see which ones are narrow and which ones are wide?

**Tags:** solar-system, meteor-shower, prediction

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: How long in advance do you want these predictions?   Most of the space/science sites and magazines publish pretty solid predictions in the week or so prior to the event.  Trace back from there to find the models -- comet trails don't change a whole lot year to year.  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2020-01-03. Score: 2

The International Meteor Organization publishes an annual [Meteor Shower Calendar](https://www.imo.net/resources/calendar/).
The PDF document for 2020 predicts a Quadrantid peak on January 4, 08:20 UT, and says:

> The peak is short-lived with an average duration (full width at half-maximum, FWHM – that is the period with ZHR above half of the peak level) of about four hours.

Unfortunately it only gives peak durations for a few showers.

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: Thanks, that's definitely the one I wanted to look up at the moment, but alas the FWHM appears only once in that PDF. I'm still looking for "some place to go to see some *predictions of many* of these envelopes"  

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