<p>Yes, after a close encounter with other planets, almost anything can happen, including a split of Mercury into smaller bodies by tidal forces, or capturing as one or more moons of one or more planets, or a sequence of captures by, and escapes from planets, conversion to a ring of all or some of the fragments, collisions with other moons, fragments falling into the Sun, others ejected from the solar system.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-07T11:01:20.117Z
2014-05-07T11:01:20.117Z
Gerald
<p>Mercury is the most unstable planet of the solar system, with an oscillating orbital eccentricity (between 0 to 0.45). <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercury_%28planet%29#Spin.E2.80.93orbit_resonance" rel="nofollow">It seems</a> there is a 1% probability in the next 5 billion years Jupiter and Mercury might enter in a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_of_the_Solar_System#Mercury.E2.80.93Jupiter_1:1_resonance" rel="nofollow">1:1 orbital resonance</a>.</p>

<p>The ending variants for this event are :</p>

<ol>
<li>colliding with Venus</li>
<li>colliding with the Sun</li>
<li>being ejected from solar system.</li>
</ol>

<p>Can it hit other targets on its way out of the solar system beside those enumerated, like Earth, Mars or the outer planets?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-08-30T08:13:35.540Z
The potential 1:1 Mercury Jupiter resonance is explained here:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_of_the_Solar_System#Mercury.E2.80.93Jupiter_1:1_perihelion-precession_resonance   it is 1:1, but it's a perihelion-precession resonance that takes place every 1,000 years.   Those 2 planets are (by coincidence) close to that now.   Any change in Mercury's orbit will obviously be quite gradual - hence the 5 billion year timeline.
userLTK
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-07T03:41:08.987Z
Try to read more carefully the article. First of all it says: `there is 1% chance that the planet may collide with Venus within the next five billion years`, that is different from a more generic `cataclysmic end`. It also talks about a possible future resonant perihelion interaction, it does NOT say that the Jupiter-Mercury system has a 1:1 orbital resonance right now.
Py-ser
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-07T08:12:26.357Z
@Py-ser thanks for the suggestions, I edited the question
symbiotech
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-07T08:50:10.697Z
You are very welcome, but try to read carefully the suggestions as well, and then edit again ;) Also, put a reference for your last sentence in the topic.
Py-ser
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-07T19:03:08.470Z
The "1:1" refers to a common ratio of a body's orbital and rotational periods, in contrast with Mercury's actual ratio of 3:2. The article *does not* say anything about any kind of 1:1 resonance between Mercury and Jupiter; rather it discusses a possible interaction between Mercury and Jupiter.
Keith Thompson
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-07T19:49:42.563Z
@KeithThompson The second link does.
Gerald
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-07T20:00:41.683Z
@Gerald: It says they may "fall into sync"; that's not a 1:1 resonance.
Keith Thompson
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-08T04:45:04.003Z
The article looks like edited just in the past 24 hours lol
Py-ser
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-09T12:58:39.867Z
@KeithThompson The headline of the paragraph says "Mercury–Jupiter 1:1 resonance". That's stricter than the phrase in the body of the paragraph: "the two may fall into sync". It's a little unclear, what the author really intended to say. Might be "fall into sync" is meant as a precursor of possible 1:1-resonance, or it's just an unlucky headline. In the only available reference (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1994A&A...287L...9L) I couldn't find statements about resonance or "sync", just about the long-term chaos in the solar system.
Gerald
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-09T12:59:10.587Z
Same here (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13757-solar-system-could-go-haywire-before-the-sun-dies.html), where the broken link in Wikipedia should point to.
Gerald
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-09T13:11:54.543Z
... fixed Wikipedia link.
Gerald
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-09T14:39:51.503Z
@Gerald: I think the "Mercury–Jupiter 1:1 resonance" is just wrong, or at least misleading, but I defer to someone who understand this better to fix it. There's no mention of a 1:1 reference in the New Scientist article. The current ratio of Jupiter's and Mercury's orbital periods is about 49.25. The paragraph itself doesn't describe a 1:1 resonance. Perhaps the idea is that there's a resonance of something other than their orbital periods, but that's extremely unclear.
Keith Thompson
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-12T04:22:11.870Z
A 1:1 orbital resonance would imply that they have the same orbital period, i.e. year length. Obviously that's not possible. In conclusion, Wikipedia is not a reliable source.
Blackbody Blacklight
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-13T16:25:33.177Z
@BlackbodyBlacklight After a change to an outer orbit e.g. due to a close encounter with Venus as a consequence of orbital instability of Mercury, an 1:1 orbital resonance with Jupiter isn't necessarily impossible, but rather unlikely, and references to an according simulation are missing.
Gerald
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-14T03:32:36.307Z
@Gerald That would essentially be capture as a moon. The Wikipedia article's elaboration seems to be referring to a cause of instability, not an outcome. Probably what they meant is an integer resonance, say 49:1. But none of the sources are clear about what's supposedly normal and what's risky, and it's hard to trust the numerical accuracy of just one simulation code.
Blackbody Blacklight
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-05-14T11:47:40.247Z
@BlackbodyBlacklight There are quite a number of possible 1:1 resonances, including horse-shoe orbits, pseudo-orbits, and trojans, but also inclined or elliptical orbits around the Sun. But that's certainly only a possible, although yet unbased, temporary outcome, not a cause, as you say.
Gerald
<impact><mercury>
Can Mercury hit Earth or Mars in the next 5 billion years?
symbiotech
# Can Mercury hit Earth or Mars in the next 5 billion years?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2014-05-07)

Mercury is the most unstable planet of the solar system, with an oscillating orbital eccentricity (between 0 to 0.45). [It seems](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercury_%28planet%29#Spin.E2.80.93orbit_resonance) there is a 1% probability in the next 5 billion years Jupiter and Mercury might enter in a [1:1 orbital resonance](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_of_the_Solar_System#Mercury.E2.80.93Jupiter_1:1_resonance).

The ending variants for this event are :

1. colliding with Venus
2. colliding with the Sun
3. being ejected from solar system.

Can it hit other targets on its way out of the solar system beside those enumerated, like Earth, Mars or the outer planets?

**Tags:** impact, mercury

> **Comments:**
> **username_2**: Try to read more carefully the article. First of all it says: `there is 1% chance that the planet may collide with Venus within the next five billion years`, that is different from a more generic `cataclysmic end`. It also talks about a possible future resonant perihelion interaction, it does NOT say that the Jupiter-Mercury system has a 1:1 orbital resonance right now.  
> **username_0**: @username_2 thanks for the suggestions, I edited the question  
> **username_2**: You are very welcome, but try to read carefully the suggestions as well, and then edit again ;) Also, put a reference for your last sentence in the topic.  
> **username_3**: The "1:1" refers to a common ratio of a body's orbital and rotational periods, in contrast with Mercury's actual ratio of 3:2. The article *does not* say anything about any kind of 1:1 resonance between Mercury and Jupiter; rather it discusses a possible interaction between Mercury and Jupiter.  
> **username_4**: @KeithThompson The second link does.  
> **username_3**: @username_4: It says they may "fall into sync"; that's not a 1:1 resonance.  
> **username_2**: The article looks like edited just in the past 24 hours lol  
> **username_4**: @KeithThompson The headline of the paragraph says "Mercury–Jupiter 1:1 resonance". That's stricter than the phrase in the body of the paragraph: "the two may fall into sync". It's a little unclear, what the author really intended to say. Might be "fall into sync" is meant as a precursor of possible 1:1-resonance, or it's just an unlucky headline. In the only available reference (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1994A&A...287L...9L) I couldn't find statements about resonance or "sync", just about the long-term chaos in the solar system.  
> **username_4**: Same here (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13757-solar-system-could-go-haywire-before-the-sun-dies.html), where the broken link in Wikipedia should point to.  
> **username_4**: ... fixed Wikipedia link.  
> **username_3**: @username_4: I think the "Mercury–Jupiter 1:1 resonance" is just wrong, or at least misleading, but I defer to someone who understand this better to fix it. There's no mention of a 1:1 reference in the New Scientist article. The current ratio of Jupiter's and Mercury's orbital periods is about 49.25. The paragraph itself doesn't describe a 1:1 resonance. Perhaps the idea is that there's a resonance of something other than their orbital periods, but that's extremely unclear.  
> **username_5**: A 1:1 orbital resonance would imply that they have the same orbital period, i.e. year length. Obviously that's not possible. In conclusion, Wikipedia is not a reliable source.  
> **username_4**: @BlackbodyBlacklight After a change to an outer orbit e.g. due to a close encounter with Venus as a consequence of orbital instability of Mercury, an 1:1 orbital resonance with Jupiter isn't necessarily impossible, but rather unlikely, and references to an according simulation are missing.  
> **username_5**: @username_4 That would essentially be capture as a moon. The Wikipedia article's elaboration seems to be referring to a cause of instability, not an outcome. Probably what they meant is an integer resonance, say 49:1. But none of the sources are clear about what's supposedly normal and what's risky, and it's hard to trust the numerical accuracy of just one simulation code.  
> **username_4**: @BlackbodyBlacklight There are quite a number of possible 1:1 resonances, including horse-shoe orbits, pseudo-orbits, and trojans, but also inclined or elliptical orbits around the Sun. But that's certainly only a possible, although yet unbased, temporary outcome, not a cause, as you say.  
> **username_1**: The potential 1:1 Mercury Jupiter resonance is explained here:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_of_the_Solar_System#Mercury.E2.80.93Jupiter_1:1_perihelion-precession_resonance   it is 1:1, but it's a perihelion-precession resonance that takes place every 1,000 years.   Those 2 planets are (by coincidence) close to that now.   Any change in Mercury's orbit will obviously be quite gradual - hence the 5 billion year timeline.  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_4 on 2014-05-07. Score: 3 | Accepted answer

Yes, after a close encounter with other planets, almost anything can happen, including a split of Mercury into smaller bodies by tidal forces, or capturing as one or more moons of one or more planets, or a sequence of captures by, and escapes from planets, conversion to a ring of all or some of the fragments, collisions with other moons, fragments falling into the Sun, others ejected from the solar system.


---

