<p>You may take a look at the lates parametrization <a href="https://naif.jpl.nasa.gov/pub/naif/generic_kernels/pck/pck00010.tpc" rel="nofollow noreferrer">file</a> by JPL-NAIF for the precession, nutation and pole orientation of the largest known bodies.</p>

<p>Although, for the large time scales you are asking, I expect you will need to propagate the data and make your own wild guess, or dig into appropiate literature about solar system physics.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-01-18T00:01:30.900Z
Welcome on the site - nice to see professionals here. :-)
peterh
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-01-17T16:04:46.343Z
2018-01-17T16:04:46.343Z
Ela
<p>On Earth, it's fairly well published, mostly in climate change related articles, that the Earth's orbital eccentricity operates on a 413,000 year cycle with roughly 90,000–125,000 year variation within that cycle.</p>

<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles#Orbital_shape_.28eccentricity.29" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Source</a></p>

<p>The cause of this variation is primarily the other planets, with Jupiter and Saturn usually mentioned as the primary causes (same link).</p>

<p>Question is two fold.   How stable is the Earth's orbital eccentricity cycle?  413,000 years sounds enormously precise, but logically, I would think small changes in planetary orbits would create some variability.   Is the 413,000 years well established and repeating or is it more uncertain?</p>

<p>And, do we have a good estimate of other planets orbital eccentricity variation?  I looked, but couldn't anything at all on other planets eccentricity cycles.   The closest I came was this gravity simulation chart below.  </p>

<p>90,000 year eccentricity chart of the 4 inner planets <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Eccentricity_rocky_planets.jpg" rel="nofollow noreferrer">here</a>,
and <a href="http://www.orbitsimulator.com/gravity/articles/what.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">method</a> used.  <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_eccentricity" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Source</a>.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-02-07T11:40:22.853Z
Link only : http://www2.physics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2011-06-15/milankovic_on_mars2013_pdf_93344.pdf  "milankovitch on mars"
James K
<orbital-elements><orbital-migration><eccentric-orbit><orbital-resonance>
Orbital eccentricity variation of the other planets?
userLTK
# Orbital eccentricity variation of the other planets?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2016-02-07)

On Earth, it's fairly well published, mostly in climate change related articles, that the Earth's orbital eccentricity operates on a 413,000 year cycle with roughly 90,000–125,000 year variation within that cycle.

[Source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles#Orbital_shape_.28eccentricity.29)

The cause of this variation is primarily the other planets, with Jupiter and Saturn usually mentioned as the primary causes (same link).

Question is two fold. How stable is the Earth's orbital eccentricity cycle? 413,000 years sounds enormously precise, but logically, I would think small changes in planetary orbits would create some variability. Is the 413,000 years well established and repeating or is it more uncertain?

And, do we have a good estimate of other planets orbital eccentricity variation? I looked, but couldn't anything at all on other planets eccentricity cycles. The closest I came was this gravity simulation chart below.

90,000 year eccentricity chart of the 4 inner planets [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Eccentricity_rocky_planets.jpg),
and [method](http://www.orbitsimulator.com/gravity/articles/what.html) used. [Source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_eccentricity).

**Tags:** orbital-elements, orbital-migration, eccentric-orbit, orbital-resonance

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Link only : http://www2.physics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2011-06-15/milankovic_on_mars2013_pdf_93344.pdf  "milankovitch on mars"  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2018-01-17. Score: 3

You may take a look at the lates parametrization [file](https://naif.jpl.nasa.gov/pub/naif/generic_kernels/pck/pck00010.tpc) by JPL-NAIF for the precession, nutation and pole orientation of the largest known bodies.

Although, for the large time scales you are asking, I expect you will need to propagate the data and make your own wild guess, or dig into appropiate literature about solar system physics.

> **Comments:**
> **username_3**: Welcome on the site - nice to see professionals here. :-)  

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