<p>Wikipedia does not cite a source.  </p>

<p><a href="https://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/index.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">NASA</a> used to make predictions, eg.:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>2009 LEONID OUTBURST FORECAST A significant shower is expected this year when Earth crosses the 1466-dust and 1533-dust ejecta of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. According to J. Vaubaillon, the narrow (about 1-hr) shower is expected to peak on November 17, 2009, at 21:43 (1466) and 21:50 (1533) UT, perhaps 0.5 to 1.0 hour later</p>
</blockquote>

<p>These are extensively studied studied, eg. <a href="http://pallas.astro.amu.edu.pl/~jopek/MDC2007/Roje/roje_lista.php?corobic_roje=0&amp;sort_roje=0" rel="nofollow noreferrer">List of all meteor showers  </a>.</p>

<p>The great storms occur <a href="https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/everything-you-need-to-know-leonid-meteor-shower" rel="nofollow noreferrer">at ~33 year intervals</a>. I can't find any prediction that this pattern will be unusually perturbed by Jupiter at this time.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-12-16T05:35:09.630Z
2019-12-16T05:35:09.630Z
Keith McClary
<p>According to the Wikipedia article on the Leonids, "a close encounter with Jupiter is expected to perturb the comet's path, and many streams, making storms of historic magnitude unlikely for many decades". Does this mean there will not be another incidence of the famous storms which spawned thousands or tens of thousands of meteors per hour within our lifetimes? Or will the 33 year periodicity reestablish itself?</p>

<meteor-shower><prediction>
Are the Leonid meteor storms a thing of the past?
Empiromancer
# Are the Leonid meteor storms a thing of the past?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2019-12-13)

According to the Wikipedia article on the Leonids, "a close encounter with Jupiter is expected to perturb the comet's path, and many streams, making storms of historic magnitude unlikely for many decades". Does this mean there will not be another incidence of the famous storms which spawned thousands or tens of thousands of meteors per hour within our lifetimes? Or will the 33 year periodicity reestablish itself?

**Tags:** meteor-shower, prediction


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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2019-12-16. Score: 2

Wikipedia does not cite a source.

[NASA](https://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/index.html) used to make predictions, eg.:

> 2009 LEONID OUTBURST FORECAST A significant shower is expected this year when Earth crosses the 1466-dust and 1533-dust ejecta of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. According to J. Vaubaillon, the narrow (about 1-hr) shower is expected to peak on November 17, 2009, at 21:43 (1466) and 21:50 (1533) UT, perhaps 0.5 to 1.0 hour later

These are extensively studied studied, eg. [List of all meteor showers](http://pallas.astro.amu.edu.pl/~jopek/MDC2007/Roje/roje_lista.php?corobic_roje=0&sort_roje=0) .

The great storms occur [at ~33 year intervals](https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/everything-you-need-to-know-leonid-meteor-shower). I can't find any prediction that this pattern will be unusually perturbed by Jupiter at this time.


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