<p>My google news feed is awash with mono-themed articles, including a near Earth asteroid that passed by around election day 2020 in the US.</p>
<p>We can all hope that neither will lead to an extinction level event :-)</p>
<p>My question is about the asteroid itself.</p>
<ol>
<li>Will <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_VP1" rel="nofollow noreferrer">2018 VP1</a> pass close to the Earth again this century?</li>
<li>Did it before?</li>
<li>Does this current pass have any <em>particularly notable or consequential</em> &quot;keyhole-like&quot; impact on its future orbit?</li>
</ol>
<hr />
<p>Cool GIF of several years of trajectory, about 5 MB so too large to embed directly: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Animation_of_2018_VP1%27s_orbit_around_Sun.gif" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Animation_of_2018_VP1%27s_orbit_around_Sun.gif</a></p>
<hr />
<p>Background on Keyholes:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://space.stackexchange.com/q/41550/12102">Do all dangerous asteroids first pass through keyholes?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://space.stackexchange.com/q/13045/12102">Understanding gravitational keyhole analysis for Near-Earth Objects</a></li>
<li><a href="https://space.stackexchange.com/q/37273/12102">Gravitational keyhole for spacecraft flyby?</a></li>
</ul>
<hr />

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-04T07:14:30.653Z
It would have been helpful for US voters to consider the extinction-level event they have some control over.
ProfRob
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-04T07:48:39.793Z
Pre-encounter position uncertainty was 0.01 au along track, better wait a few days for [actual observations](https://minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=K18V01P).
Mike G
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-04T08:15:29.390Z
@RobJeffries yes, those crazy-haired "visionaries" running on platforms of restoring past glories just can't be trusted ;-) Let's hope that the US has learned its lesson again, at least for another century that appeasement of a monster doesn't work.
uhoh
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-04T22:37:02.613Z
With an absolute magnitude of 30.9, 2018 VP1 is an extremely tiny Near Earth Object with an estimated size of 1-9 meters, depending on what you assume for the albedo. This is less than half the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor, so worst case is a large fireball in the upper atmosphere
astrosnapper
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-04T23:43:41.580Z
@astrosnapper Good point! OTOH, it would do serious damage to any satellite it hit.
PM 2Ring
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-05T17:19:26.707Z
In which Uhoh and Rob Jeffries, though gentlemen both, low-key show themselves as Lefties. And no, I'm neither Republican or Conservative.
White Prime
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-11T01:45:56.363Z
@RobJeffries https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54892098 that [clever old dog](https://www.christies.com/lotfinder/Lot/robert-arneson-1930-1992-portrait-of-the-artist-5844993-details.aspx) :-) https://i.sstatic.net/cfX2x.png
uhoh
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-11T07:39:26.380Z
@uhoh The global village has found its new idiot.
ProfRob
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-11T07:43:04.223Z
@RobJeffries this turned out to be interesting! https://security.stackexchange.com/q/240677/115702
uhoh
<asteroids><orbital-mechanics><celestial-mechanics><near-earth-object><collision>
Will the United States Presidential Election (day asteroid) be back soon?
uhoh
# Will the United States Presidential Election (day asteroid) be back soon?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2020-11-04)

My google news feed is awash with mono-themed articles, including a near Earth asteroid that passed by around election day 2020 in the US.

We can all hope that neither will lead to an extinction level event :-)

My question is about the asteroid itself.

1. Will [2018 VP1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_VP1) pass close to the Earth again this century?
2. Did it before?
3. Does this current pass have any *particularly notable or consequential* "keyhole-like" impact on its future orbit?

---

Cool GIF of several years of trajectory, about 5 MB so too large to embed directly: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Animation_of_2018_VP1%27s_orbit_around_Sun.gif>

---

Background on Keyholes:

* [Do all dangerous asteroids first pass through keyholes?](https://space.stackexchange.com/q/41550/12102)
* [Understanding gravitational keyhole analysis for Near-Earth Objects](https://space.stackexchange.com/q/13045/12102)
* [Gravitational keyhole for spacecraft flyby?](https://space.stackexchange.com/q/37273/12102)

---

**Tags:** asteroids, orbital-mechanics, celestial-mechanics, near-earth-object, collision

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: It would have been helpful for US voters to consider the extinction-level event they have some control over.  
> **username_2**: Pre-encounter position uncertainty was 0.01 au along track, better wait a few days for [actual observations](https://minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=K18V01P).  
> **username_0**: @RobJeffries yes, those crazy-haired "visionaries" running on platforms of restoring past glories just can't be trusted ;-) Let's hope that the US has learned its lesson again, at least for another century that appeasement of a monster doesn't work.  
> **username_3**: With an absolute magnitude of 30.9, 2018 VP1 is an extremely tiny Near Earth Object with an estimated size of 1-9 meters, depending on what you assume for the albedo. This is less than half the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor, so worst case is a large fireball in the upper atmosphere  
> **username_4**: @username_3 Good point! OTOH, it would do serious damage to any satellite it hit.  
> **username_5**: In which Uhoh and Rob Jeffries, though gentlemen both, low-key show themselves as Lefties. And no, I'm neither Republican or Conservative.  
> **username_0**: @RobJeffries https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54892098 that [clever old dog](https://www.christies.com/lotfinder/Lot/robert-arneson-1930-1992-portrait-of-the-artist-5844993-details.aspx) :-) https://i.sstatic.net/cfX2x.png  
> **username_1**: @username_0 The global village has found its new idiot.  
> **username_0**: @RobJeffries this turned out to be interesting! https://security.stackexchange.com/q/240677/115702  

---

## 0 answers

