<p>Sadly, a well referenced answer to this question likely lies behind academic publisher paywalls.
However, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_belt#Collisions" rel="nofollow">Wikipedia claims</a>: </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Collisions between main-belt bodies with a mean radius of 10 km are expected to occur about once every 10 million years.[63]</p>
</blockquote>

<p>-Source for citation 63 has disappeared from the internet.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.boulder.swri.edu/recent/iras_dust.pdf" rel="nofollow">However, the Veritas asteroid cluster, and the Karin cluster</a> reportedly formed by the collisional disruption of 140 km diameter and 25 km diameter diameter objects only 8.3 and 5.8 million years ago. These numbers obviously cast doubt on the Wikipedia claim.</p>

<p>This piece <a href="http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu//full/2002MmSAI..73..743G/0000746.000.html" rel="nofollow">Small asteroid collisional characteristics</a> from 2002 states: </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Orbits of nearly 88,000 astreroids from the main belt are needed to find statistically one encounter within 1000 km distance during 50 years.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Naturally the more abundant smaller asteroids collide more frequently. In fact Hubble seems to have <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/news/asteroid-collision.html" rel="nofollow">caught the aftermath of such an event back in 2010</a>.</p>

<p>To answer the question. It seems Ceres will remain intact for some millions of years to come. But it <em>does</em> get hit fairly regularly, <a href="http://www.space.com/24789-moon-meteorite-impact-brightest-lunar-explosion.html" rel="nofollow">like the moon</a>. If Ceres regularly took impacts large enough to preclude habitation, we'd expect to see co-orbiting debris clouds like the Veritas cluster, or in the 2010 Hubble images. We do not see such debris clouds near Ceres.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-10-11T20:32:12.143Z
See, an answer like this is why I voted to re-open the question.
HDE 226868
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-10-11T20:20:31.423Z
2014-10-11T20:20:31.423Z
Wayfaring Stranger
<p>In the context of possible colonization of Ceres, would not such colony be totally impossible because of high probability of collision of Ceres with other asteroids in the Asteroid Belt?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-10-09T14:14:54.943Z
asking if colonization is possible in such a situation seem more on topic at [Space Exploration](http://space.stackexchange.com/).
Robert Cartaino
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-10-09T17:45:13.533Z
@Robert Cartaino lol, calculation of the probability of collisions of a celestial bodies is off-topic??? Who other than an astronomer can calculate it?
Anixx
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-10-09T18:52:32.540Z
@Omen I was shocked it was marked off-topic because it is the first truly astronomical question I asked here (the others mostly concern astrophysics and/or cosmology).
Anixx
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-10-09T23:33:56.910Z
@Anixx Well, cosmology and astrophysics *are* on topic here - see the rationale [here](http://discuss.area51.stackexchange.com/questions/18065/why-was-cosmology-closed-as-a-duplicate-of-astronomy).
HDE 226868
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-10-09T23:57:07.940Z
@HDE 226868 yet this question is about pure astronomy.
Anixx
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-10-10T00:05:38.407Z
@Anixx Yes, definitely, but the part about the colony is what makes it better for Space Exploration. Without that, I would think it is on-topic here.
HDE 226868
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-10-10T00:11:58.193Z
@HDE 226868 usually questions need motivation. I also added this so to underline what probability scale of collisions interests me. I wonder if I asked for day lenghth on Ceres for assessing possibility of colonization or for the length of year, would it also be off-topic?
Anixx
<asteroids><dwarf-planets>
What is the danger for Ceres of collision with other asteroids?
Anixx
# What is the danger for Ceres of collision with other asteroids?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2014-10-09)

In the context of possible colonization of Ceres, would not such colony be totally impossible because of high probability of collision of Ceres with other asteroids in the Asteroid Belt?

**Tags:** asteroids, dwarf-planets

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: asking if colonization is possible in such a situation seem more on topic at [Space Exploration](http://space.stackexchange.com/).  
> **username_0**: @username_1 lol, calculation of the probability of collisions of a celestial bodies is off-topic??? Who other than an astronomer can calculate it?  
> **username_0**: @Omen I was shocked it was marked off-topic because it is the first truly astronomical question I asked here (the others mostly concern astrophysics and/or cosmology).  
> **username_2**: @username_0 Well, cosmology and astrophysics *are* on topic here - see the rationale [here](http://discuss.area51.stackexchange.com/questions/18065/why-was-cosmology-closed-as-a-duplicate-of-astronomy).  
> **username_0**: @username_2 yet this question is about pure astronomy.  
> **username_2**: @username_0 Yes, definitely, but the part about the colony is what makes it better for Space Exploration. Without that, I would think it is on-topic here.  
> **username_0**: @username_2 usually questions need motivation. I also added this so to underline what probability scale of collisions interests me. I wonder if I asked for day lenghth on Ceres for assessing possibility of colonization or for the length of year, would it also be off-topic?  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_3 on 2014-10-11. Score: 3

Sadly, a well referenced answer to this question likely lies behind academic publisher paywalls.
However, [Wikipedia claims](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_belt#Collisions):

> Collisions between main-belt bodies with a mean radius of 10 km are expected to occur about once every 10 million years.[63]

-Source for citation 63 has disappeared from the internet.

[However, the Veritas asteroid cluster, and the Karin cluster](http://www.boulder.swri.edu/recent/iras_dust.pdf) reportedly formed by the collisional disruption of 140 km diameter and 25 km diameter diameter objects only 8.3 and 5.8 million years ago. These numbers obviously cast doubt on the Wikipedia claim.

This piece [Small asteroid collisional characteristics](http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu//full/2002MmSAI..73..743G/0000746.000.html) from 2002 states:

> Orbits of nearly 88,000 astreroids from the main belt are needed to find statistically one encounter within 1000 km distance during 50 years.

Naturally the more abundant smaller asteroids collide more frequently. In fact Hubble seems to have [caught the aftermath of such an event back in 2010](http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/news/asteroid-collision.html).

To answer the question. It seems Ceres will remain intact for some millions of years to come. But it *does* get hit fairly regularly, [like the moon](http://www.space.com/24789-moon-meteorite-impact-brightest-lunar-explosion.html). If Ceres regularly took impacts large enough to preclude habitation, we'd expect to see co-orbiting debris clouds like the Veritas cluster, or in the 2010 Hubble images. We do not see such debris clouds near Ceres.

> **Comments:**
> **username_2**: See, an answer like this is why I voted to re-open the question.  

---

