<p>Meteorites are mostly expected to have random arrival times because it is unlikely that there is any &quot;clumping mechanism&quot; that can force them together in interplanetary space.</p>
<p>Analysis of the arrival times in major, older meteor showers (e.g., <a href="https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2021/12/aa41809-21/aa41809-21.html" rel="noreferrer">Koten et al. 2021</a>) seems to confirm that they are by and large consistent with random statistics. There has been a hint of non-randomness claimed for the Leonid storm of 1999 (<a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002CoSka..32..132P/abstract" rel="noreferrer">Porubcan et al. 2002</a>). The explanation suggested is that if you get fragmentation of meteoritic bodies before they enter the atmosphere, and in younger streams before they have had time to mix/disperse, then some clumpiness might remain.</p>
<p>There are also obvious <em>exceptions</em> where a larger body may fragment shortly (days) before it arrives in the Earth's atmosphere and this leads to a burst of meteors over a short period of time (seconds), sometimes accompanying a very bright meteor/fireball (e.g., <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002PASJ...54L..23W/abstract" rel="noreferrer">Watanabe et al. 2002</a>; <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.14029" rel="noreferrer">Capek et al. 2022</a>; <a href="https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2024/03/aa48618-23/aa48618-23.htm" rel="noreferrer">Koten et al. 2024</a>).</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-15T13:43:07.273Z
2024-08-15T13:56:55.190Z
2024-08-15T13:56:55.190Z
ProfRob
<p><a href="https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/woo-hoo-the-perseids-are-coming/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/woo-hoo-the-perseids-are-coming/</a>  certainly claims they do;</p>
<blockquote>
<p>From latitude 40° north, the radiant peaks high in the northeastern sky at more than 60° altitude around the start of dawn. That's why observing from midnight till dawn usually means seeing more meteors than during evening hours. But whether you're out at 10 p.m. — a great time to share with the kids — or hooting with the owls at 3 a.m. the only equipment you'll need are a blanket and reclining chair. A pair of binoculars to poke around the sky during lulls wouldn't be a bad idea either. Or even some favorite music. <strong>Shower meteors always come in spurts separated by spells of inactivity that can last up to a few minutes.</strong> On the surface these empty times might seem boring, but the temporary lack of action only heightens our anticipation for the next arrival.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, I do not see any mechanism that allows this to be the case!
Could this simply be an observational bias, due to observers being less distracted and looking more carefully directly after a meteor, or due to observers failing to realise an individual meteor is part of the shower?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-11T08:06:17.950Z
My hunch is that "always" simply should have been "often seem to" and that this is just the nature of the [interval distribution](https://math.stackexchange.com/q/1297540/284619) $P(\lambda) = \exp(-\lambda)$. (see also https://neuronaldynamics.epfl.ch/online/Ch7.S3.html) Chances are small that they will come at a steady rate; chances are higher that they will be coming at either a faster, or slower rate than average. But I'll let someone else formulate that mathematically, and rule out any chances that a very new meteor shower might still be clumpy somehow...
uhoh
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-11T08:07:07.147Z
(cf. [Why do particles from a comet that result in meteor showers spread out mostly along the comet's orbit?](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/q/35919/7982) and links therein, and [What makes some meteor showers continue for days, while the "Unicorn shower" can be shorter than one hour?](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/q/34018/7982))
uhoh
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-11T08:42:50.013Z
[Do we really want a "debunk" tag?](https://astronomy.meta.stackexchange.com/q/972/7982)
uhoh
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-13T16:33:01.857Z
From my personal experience observing many showers, that's just wrong.  They are very sporadic.
Greg Miller
<comets><meteor><meteor-shower><meteoroid>
Is it true that “Shower meteors always come in spurts separated by spells of inactivity that can last up to a few minutes”
Harrychink
# Is it true that “Shower meteors always come in spurts separated by spells of inactivity that can last up to a few minutes”

(Asked by: username_0 on 2024-08-11)

<https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/woo-hoo-the-perseids-are-coming/> certainly claims they do;

> From latitude 40° north, the radiant peaks high in the northeastern sky at more than 60° altitude around the start of dawn. That's why observing from midnight till dawn usually means seeing more meteors than during evening hours. But whether you're out at 10 p.m. — a great time to share with the kids — or hooting with the owls at 3 a.m. the only equipment you'll need are a blanket and reclining chair. A pair of binoculars to poke around the sky during lulls wouldn't be a bad idea either. Or even some favorite music. **Shower meteors always come in spurts separated by spells of inactivity that can last up to a few minutes.** On the surface these empty times might seem boring, but the temporary lack of action only heightens our anticipation for the next arrival.

However, I do not see any mechanism that allows this to be the case!
Could this simply be an observational bias, due to observers being less distracted and looking more carefully directly after a meteor, or due to observers failing to realise an individual meteor is part of the shower?

**Tags:** comets, meteor, meteor-shower, meteoroid

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: My hunch is that "always" simply should have been "often seem to" and that this is just the nature of the [interval distribution](https://math.stackexchange.com/q/1297540/284619) $P(\lambda) = \exp(-\lambda)$. (see also https://neuronaldynamics.epfl.ch/online/Ch7.S3.html) Chances are small that they will come at a steady rate; chances are higher that they will be coming at either a faster, or slower rate than average. But I'll let someone else formulate that mathematically, and rule out any chances that a very new meteor shower might still be clumpy somehow...  
> **username_1**: (cf. [Why do particles from a comet that result in meteor showers spread out mostly along the comet's orbit?](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/q/35919/7982) and links therein, and [What makes some meteor showers continue for days, while the "Unicorn shower" can be shorter than one hour?](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/q/34018/7982))  
> **username_1**: [Do we really want a "debunk" tag?](https://astronomy.meta.stackexchange.com/q/972/7982)  
> **username_2**: From my personal experience observing many showers, that's just wrong.  They are very sporadic.  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_3 on 2024-08-15. Score: 7

Meteorites are mostly expected to have random arrival times because it is unlikely that there is any "clumping mechanism" that can force them together in interplanetary space.

Analysis of the arrival times in major, older meteor showers (e.g., [Koten et al. 2021](https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2021/12/aa41809-21/aa41809-21.html)) seems to confirm that they are by and large consistent with random statistics. There has been a hint of non-randomness claimed for the Leonid storm of 1999 ([Porubcan et al. 2002](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002CoSka..32..132P/abstract)). The explanation suggested is that if you get fragmentation of meteoritic bodies before they enter the atmosphere, and in younger streams before they have had time to mix/disperse, then some clumpiness might remain.

There are also obvious *exceptions* where a larger body may fragment shortly (days) before it arrives in the Earth's atmosphere and this leads to a burst of meteors over a short period of time (seconds), sometimes accompanying a very bright meteor/fireball (e.g., [Watanabe et al. 2002](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002PASJ...54L..23W/abstract); [Capek et al. 2022](https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.14029); [Koten et al. 2024](https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2024/03/aa48618-23/aa48618-23.htm)).


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