<p>The CDC has been rapidly increasing its estimate of children with autism for years. It's tripled in the past 15 years.</p>

<p><img src="https://www.autismspeaks.org/sites/default/files/2018_prevalence_graphic_hero.jpg" alt=""></p>

<p>This has lead to a lot of speculation, including dramatic claims like vaccines causing autism. </p>

<p>My physiology-major wife tells me that the enormous increase is likely simply increased awareness and alterations to its definition.</p>

<p>But I never hear anything definitive. Even with changes to awareness, definition, etc., given that autism is a common, incurable, lifelong condition, isn't this is really easy to answer?</p>

<ol>
<li>Take a population sample.</li>
<li>Test for autism using chosen, fixed criteria.</li>
<li>Analyze how age correlates to the measured autism rate.</li>
</ol>

<p>Okay, maybe not "really easy", but as easy as other physiological population studies.</p>

<p>Has anyone done this and found the answer? Is actual autism prevalence increasing?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-12-30T08:45:56.850Z
Welcome to Psychology.SE. I think that any definitive answer to this question would be very much based on opinion rather than hard facts. As you said your wife pointed out, increases within statistical data can be for many different reasons including increased reporting, better records, increased awareness (inside and outside mental health fields)... The same can be found with national crime statistics and many other datasets. As for estimates, they are just that... **estimates**
Chris Rogers
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2018-12-30T19:38:49.990Z
Potential duplicate: https://psychology.stackexchange.com/q/4515/21
Steven Jeuris
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2018-12-31T03:38:59.557Z
@ChrisRogers :/ Sad to hear there haven't been any reputable clinical studies.
Paul Draper
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-12-31T10:25:48.357Z
Not to fully invalidate your question and suggested method for a study, but for one, I know that it is possible to lose the diagnosis of autism over the years. E.g.: https://iancommunity.org/ssc/recovery-numbers-how-often-do-children-lose-autism-diagnosis
Steven Jeuris
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-01-01T20:49:02.323Z
In some countries it decreased https://psychology.stackexchange.com/questions/20504/why-isnt-high-functioning-autism-recognized-by-the-dsm-5-or-the-icd-10/20509#20509
got trolled too much this week
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2019-01-02T18:33:31.897Z
@StevenJeuris, wow, thanks for that. "4 to 13 percent" is really significant recovery rate.
Paul Draper
<measurement><autism>
Is autism prevalence increasing?
Paul Draper
# Is autism prevalence increasing?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2018-12-30)

The CDC has been rapidly increasing its estimate of children with autism for years. It's tripled in the past 15 years.

![](https://www.autismspeaks.org/sites/default/files/2018_prevalence_graphic_hero.jpg)

This has lead to a lot of speculation, including dramatic claims like vaccines causing autism.

My physiology-major wife tells me that the enormous increase is likely simply increased awareness and alterations to its definition.

But I never hear anything definitive. Even with changes to awareness, definition, etc., given that autism is a common, incurable, lifelong condition, isn't this is really easy to answer?

1. Take a population sample.
2. Test for autism using chosen, fixed criteria.
3. Analyze how age correlates to the measured autism rate.

Okay, maybe not "really easy", but as easy as other physiological population studies.

Has anyone done this and found the answer? Is actual autism prevalence increasing?

**Tags:** measurement, autism

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Welcome to Psychology.SE. I think that any definitive answer to this question would be very much based on opinion rather than hard facts. As you said your wife pointed out, increases within statistical data can be for many different reasons including increased reporting, better records, increased awareness (inside and outside mental health fields)... The same can be found with national crime statistics and many other datasets. As for estimates, they are just that... **estimates**  
> **username_2**: Potential duplicate: https://psychology.stackexchange.com/q/4515/21  
> **username_0**: @ChrisRogers :/ Sad to hear there haven't been any reputable clinical studies.  
> **username_2**: Not to fully invalidate your question and suggested method for a study, but for one, I know that it is possible to lose the diagnosis of autism over the years. E.g.: https://iancommunity.org/ssc/recovery-numbers-how-often-do-children-lose-autism-diagnosis  
> **username_3**: In some countries it decreased https://psychology.stackexchange.com/questions/20504/why-isnt-high-functioning-autism-recognized-by-the-dsm-5-or-the-icd-10/20509#20509  
> **username_0**: @StevenJeuris, wow, thanks for that. "4 to 13 percent" is really significant recovery rate.  

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