<p>The &quot;shell fallacy&quot; as I see it is this: someone walks into a crater created by a shell on the battlefield and says, &quot;There's no way any more shells are going to fall here. &quot;No more shells should fall here.&quot;
I think this fallacy had a different name than the gambler's fallacy.
If anyone knows, please let me know.</p>
<p>They are essentially the same thing, but I remember reading about them in some online article as clearly differentiated, time-honored examples.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2022-08-29T05:48:46.877Z
I'm curious what you think might distinguish this from the gambler's fallacy. An alternative framing that's a familiar idiom is: "lightning never strikes twice in the same place" of course.
Jiminy Cricket.
CC BY-SA 4.0
2022-09-10T05:53:24.783Z
I have not heard of the fallacy you described but there is similar called the *Conjunction Fallacy* - see https://www.bramleylab.ppls.ed.ac.uk/pdfs/ludwinpeery2020broken.pdf
Chris Rogers
<bias><cognition>
I'm looking for "The Cannonball Fallacy."
yuuki76
# I'm looking for "The Cannonball Fallacy."

(Asked by: username_0 on 2022-08-29)

The "shell fallacy" as I see it is this: someone walks into a crater created by a shell on the battlefield and says, "There's no way any more shells are going to fall here. "No more shells should fall here."
I think this fallacy had a different name than the gambler's fallacy.
If anyone knows, please let me know.

They are essentially the same thing, but I remember reading about them in some online article as clearly differentiated, time-honored examples.

**Tags:** bias, cognition

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: I'm curious what you think might distinguish this from the gambler's fallacy. An alternative framing that's a familiar idiom is: "lightning never strikes twice in the same place" of course.  
> **username_2**: I have not heard of the fallacy you described but there is similar called the *Conjunction Fallacy* - see https://www.bramleylab.ppls.ed.ac.uk/pdfs/ludwinpeery2020broken.pdf  

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