<p>The weather caused the problem of his nose. Specifically, he suspected it's too dry. </p>

<p>It seems that you misunderstand the word 估计 in the context. It's not an estimation actually. It's his suspection instead. I'd interpret 估计 as <strong>reckon</strong>, <strong>suspect</strong>, <strong>feel</strong>, and etc in this context. </p>

<p>So, </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>我还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气太干 // I am still not accustomed to the north's climate, I reckon (it's because) the weather is too dry.</p>
</blockquote>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T03:43:44.770Z
估计 simply means "guess" here
Tang Ho
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T04:16:25.640Z
@TangHo I think it's more than 'guess'(猜测). 估计 denotes the sense of "more likely"(可能/很可能) here. It usually implies one makes judgements based on certain data, not a blind 'guess'.
dan
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T02:59:14.260Z
2019-10-28T02:59:14.260Z
dan
<p>When he said &quot;天气太干&quot; he actually meant &quot;空气太干&quot; (air is too dry)</p>
<p>Chinese believe one of the causes for nosebleed is 體內燥熱 (dry heat inside body), and 干燥空气 (dry air) is a cause of 體內燥熱</p>
<p>To reduce 燥熱(dry heat), one should drink often and avoid fried, greasy food (fried food raise body temperature, greasy food is harder to digest thus put stress on the system, make it over work and heat up, causing nosebleed)</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气(空气)太干</p>
<p>I am still not accustomed to the north's climate, I guess it's because the weather (air) is too dry.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>估计 simply means &quot;guess&quot; here</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T04:26:40.733Z
'Guess' is not an accurate interpretation for 估计, strictly speaking.
dan
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T04:57:58.643Z
But he 's just guessing
Tang Ho
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T04:58:34.923Z
@dan "guess" is a correct translation. Your interpretation (猜測) is too literal, and not  strictly appropriate under a colloquial context like this. This is an English word usage nuance. The correct translation is: "i'm still not used to the northern climate, I think/guess that the weather's too try...
dROOOze
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T05:12:04.640Z
@droooze If, in English, 'guess' and 'reckon' are the same for the context, I'd agree. I can't comment on English. I'm not an English native speaker anyway.
dan
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T05:13:20.150Z
@dan yep, it is - it is colloquial usage. Colloquial language is often the hardest to translate across the languages.
dROOOze
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T05:27:15.717Z
@droooze In Chinese, when we say 估计某事是真的，it means : we think it's true because we have some data or evidence to support it. So, when we use the word 估计，it's more likely something is true.
dan
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T05:30:22.517Z
I do live in an English speaking country, "Guess" really is the usual interpretation of  估计 in this context. (he had a nosebleed and his first guess was  the dry air in the region causing it. ) 估计 in Chinese does contain the meaning of  "guess". I mean a guess is not always a blind guess,  people do make guesses  base on  hints or logic
Tang Ho
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T05:38:05.397Z
@dan I think you interpreted "guess" as "a completely random uneducated guess", but this is not what "guess" means. "Guess" often means ["educated guess"](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/educated_guess). I suggest that you ask a question on ELL if you don't believe me :)
dROOOze
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T05:44:46.353Z
@droooze As long as it's clear to OP and other learners.
dan
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T05:47:11.703Z
drooze and I agree "guess" is not always random as you implied. Educated guess is usually a correct conclusion, just without presenting proof , while random guess is like gambling purely with luck
Tang Ho
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T04:04:45.403Z
2019-10-28T04:04:45.403Z
2020-06-17T09:50:11.587Z
Tang Ho
<h3>Simply to answer your question:</h3>

<h3>Your understanding it right —— Lin underestimated the dryness which caused his nose bleeding.</h3>

<p>Lin says: 我还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气太干。which means:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Lin failed to expect the climate is so dry, so he failed to moister his nose to prevent bleeding.</p>
</blockquote>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T05:54:27.333Z
2019-10-28T05:54:27.333Z
shuangwhywhy
<p>This snippet is from 标准教程HSK4上 chapter 7 (my translation):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>小李：你的鼻子怎么流血了？快用纸擦擦。<br />
Little Li: Your nose is [how] bleeding? Quickly get a tissue and wipe [it].</p>
<p>小林：<strong>我还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气太干</strong>。今天天气不是很冷，你怎么穿这么多？<br />
Little Lin: <strong>I am still not accustomed to the north's climate, [my] estimate is the weather is too dry</strong>.  Today the weather is not very cold, how come you wear so much?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I don't understand what caused 小林's nose to bleed.  The logic seems to be something like this:</p>
<ol>
<li>小林 is now in the north [of China].</li>
<li>小林 is not accustomed to the north's climate.</li>
<li>小林 estimated the weather is &quot;too dry&quot; [估计是天气太干], but this was incorrect.</li>
<li>???</li>
<li>小林's nose is bleeding.</li>
</ol>
<p>I'm going wrong somewhere here.</p>
<p><strong>Question</strong>: Why is 小林's nose bleeding?</p>
<p>It seems like 小林 has predicted the north's weather is drier than it actually is.  But I would expect an underestimation of the dryness to lead to 小林's nose bleeding, not an overestimation.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T02:44:47.417Z
Apologies if this sounds offensive, but growing up in a Western country, I've personally felt that the way of bringing up Chinese kids 20-30 years ago (don't know about now) was a bit "overprotective", and that any random weather condition that someone isn't accustomed to will be blamed for any random symptom.
dROOOze
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-10-28T02:51:03.760Z
There might be some *logic* to it? "A dry climate or heated indoor air irritates and dries out nasal membranes, causing crusts that may itch and then bleed when scratched or picked." https://kidshealth.org/en/teens/nosebleeds.html
Mou某
<meaning><meaning-in-context>
Why is Little Lin's nose bleeding? 还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气太干。
# Why is Little Lin's nose bleeding? 还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气太干。

(Asked by: username_0 on 2019-10-28)

This snippet is from 标准教程HSK4上 chapter 7 (my translation):

> 小李：你的鼻子怎么流血了？快用纸擦擦。  
> Little Li: Your nose is [how] bleeding? Quickly get a tissue and wipe [it].
>
> 小林：**我还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气太干**。今天天气不是很冷，你怎么穿这么多？  
> Little Lin: **I am still not accustomed to the north's climate, [my] estimate is the weather is too dry**. Today the weather is not very cold, how come you wear so much?

I don't understand what caused 小林's nose to bleed. The logic seems to be something like this:

1. 小林 is now in the north [of China].
2. 小林 is not accustomed to the north's climate.
3. 小林 estimated the weather is "too dry" [估计是天气太干], but this was incorrect.
4. ???
5. 小林's nose is bleeding.

I'm going wrong somewhere here.

**Question**: Why is 小林's nose bleeding?

It seems like 小林 has predicted the north's weather is drier than it actually is. But I would expect an underestimation of the dryness to lead to 小林's nose bleeding, not an overestimation.

**Tags:** meaning, meaning-in-context

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Apologies if this sounds offensive, but growing up in a Western country, I've personally felt that the way of bringing up Chinese kids 20-30 years ago (don't know about now) was a bit "overprotective", and that any random weather condition that someone isn't accustomed to will be blamed for any random symptom.  
> **username_2**: There might be some *logic* to it? "A dry climate or heated indoor air irritates and dries out nasal membranes, causing crusts that may itch and then bleed when scratched or picked." https://kidshealth.org/en/teens/nosebleeds.html  

---

## 3 answers

### Answer by username_3 on 2019-10-28. Score: 4 | Accepted answer

The weather caused the problem of his nose. Specifically, he suspected it's too dry.

It seems that you misunderstand the word 估计 in the context. It's not an estimation actually. It's his suspection instead. I'd interpret 估计 as **reckon**, **suspect**, **feel**, and etc in this context.

So,

> 我还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气太干 // I am still not accustomed to the north's climate, I reckon (it's because) the weather is too dry.

> **Comments:**
> **username_4**: 估计 simply means "guess" here  
> **username_3**: @username_4 I think it's more than 'guess'(猜测). 估计 denotes the sense of "more likely"(可能/很可能) here. It usually implies one makes judgements based on certain data, not a blind 'guess'.  

---

### Answer by username_4 on 2019-10-28. Score: 2

When he said "天气太干" he actually meant "空气太干" (air is too dry)

Chinese believe one of the causes for nosebleed is 體內燥熱 (dry heat inside body), and 干燥空气 (dry air) is a cause of 體內燥熱

To reduce 燥熱(dry heat), one should drink often and avoid fried, greasy food (fried food raise body temperature, greasy food is harder to digest thus put stress on the system, make it over work and heat up, causing nosebleed)

> 我还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气(空气)太干
>
> I am still not accustomed to the north's climate, I guess it's because the weather (air) is too dry.

估计 simply means "guess" here

> **Comments:**
> **username_3**: 'Guess' is not an accurate interpretation for 估计, strictly speaking.  
> **username_4**: But he 's just guessing  
> **username_1**: @username_3 "guess" is a correct translation. Your interpretation (猜測) is too literal, and not  strictly appropriate under a colloquial context like this. This is an English word usage nuance. The correct translation is: "i'm still not used to the northern climate, I think/guess that the weather's too try...  
> **username_3**: @username_1 If, in English, 'guess' and 'reckon' are the same for the context, I'd agree. I can't comment on English. I'm not an English native speaker anyway.  
> **username_1**: @username_3 yep, it is - it is colloquial usage. Colloquial language is often the hardest to translate across the languages.  
> **username_3**: @username_1 In Chinese, when we say 估计某事是真的，it means : we think it's true because we have some data or evidence to support it. So, when we use the word 估计，it's more likely something is true.  
> **username_4**: I do live in an English speaking country, "Guess" really is the usual interpretation of  估计 in this context. (he had a nosebleed and his first guess was  the dry air in the region causing it. ) 估计 in Chinese does contain the meaning of  "guess". I mean a guess is not always a blind guess,  people do make guesses  base on  hints or logic  
> **username_1**: @username_3 I think you interpreted "guess" as "a completely random uneducated guess", but this is not what "guess" means. "Guess" often means ["educated guess"](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/educated_guess). I suggest that you ask a question on ELL if you don't believe me :)  
> **username_3**: @username_1 As long as it's clear to OP and other learners.  
> **username_4**: drooze and I agree "guess" is not always random as you implied. Educated guess is usually a correct conclusion, just without presenting proof , while random guess is like gambling purely with luck  

---

### Answer by username_5 on 2019-10-28. Score: 0

### Simply to answer your question:

### Your understanding it right —— Lin underestimated the dryness which caused his nose bleeding.

Lin says: 我还不习惯北方的气候，估计是天气太干。which means:

> Lin failed to expect the climate is so dry, so he failed to moister his nose to prevent bleeding.


---

