<p>There are lots of articles that assess global models both locally and globally. They usually focus on a few parameters that are easily comparable with observations (e.g., temperature, wind, surface pressure). A couple of examples of the many available: </p>

<ul>
<li><p>for ECMWF:</p>

<p>Roberto Buizza, 1997: <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0493%281997%29125%3C0099:PFSOEP%3E2.0.CO%3B2" rel="nofollow">Potential Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System.</a> <em>Mon. Wea. Rev.,</em> <strong>125</strong>, 99–119, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125&lt;0099:PFSOEP>2.0.CO;2.</p></li>
<li><p>for both only looking at precipitation:</p>

<p>Thomas M. Hamill, Renate Hagedorn, and Jeffrey S. Whitaker, 2008: <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007MWR2411.1" rel="nofollow">Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation.</a> <em>Mon. Wea. Rev.,</em> <strong>136</strong>, 2620–2632, doi: 10.1175/2007MWR2411.1.</p></li>
<li>For the climate model world, check out: <a href="http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov" rel="nofollow">http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov</a></li>
</ul>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-04-23T00:32:13.893Z
2016-09-11T03:14:34.587Z
2016-09-11T03:14:34.587Z
arkaia
<p>The models I have in mind are the major global models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).  </p>

<p>These models produce numerous output and as such there are numerous ways to validate the forecast they produce. I've seen many plots that focus on specific heights on the 500 mb surface to gauge forecast accuracy, but that is all I'm familiar with. </p>

<p>How is model skill and forecast correctness measured?  Is it an overall global skill, or are various skills in specific regions of the globe also evaluated?  Are these validation results freely available on the internet?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-04-22T18:42:24.523Z
The [WMO Lead Centre for Deterministic Forecast Verification (WMO-LCDNV)](http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv) could be of interest for you.
BHF
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-04-29T05:41:13.743Z
See also [Lead Centre for Verification of EPS](http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv).
BHF
<meteorology><models><nwp><validation>
How is global weather model skill measured?
casey
# How is global weather model skill measured?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2014-04-17)

The models I have in mind are the major global models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).

These models produce numerous output and as such there are numerous ways to validate the forecast they produce. I've seen many plots that focus on specific heights on the 500 mb surface to gauge forecast accuracy, but that is all I'm familiar with.

How is model skill and forecast correctness measured? Is it an overall global skill, or are various skills in specific regions of the globe also evaluated? Are these validation results freely available on the internet?

**Tags:** meteorology, models, nwp, validation

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: The [WMO Lead Centre for Deterministic Forecast Verification (WMO-LCDNV)](http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv) could be of interest for you.  
> **username_1**: See also [Lead Centre for Verification of EPS](http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv).  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2014-04-23. Score: 12 | Accepted answer

There are lots of articles that assess global models both locally and globally. They usually focus on a few parameters that are easily comparable with observations (e.g., temperature, wind, surface pressure). A couple of examples of the many available:

* for ECMWF:

  Roberto Buizza, 1997: [Potential Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System.](http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0493%281997%29125%3C0099:PFSOEP%3E2.0.CO%3B2) *Mon. Wea. Rev.,* **125**, 99–119, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0099:PFSOEP>2.0.CO;2.
* for both only looking at precipitation:

  Thomas M. Hamill, Renate Hagedorn, and Jeffrey S. Whitaker, 2008: [Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation.](http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007MWR2411.1) *Mon. Wea. Rev.,* **136**, 2620–2632, doi: 10.1175/2007MWR2411.1.
* For the climate model world, check out: <http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov>


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