<p>A good start is the <a href="https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=83537&amp;tid=3622&amp;cid=54686&amp;c=2" rel="nofollow noreferrer">article</a> by <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo352" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Goodkin et al. (2008)</a> that relates past fluctuations of NAO to climate variability and argues that in the late 20th century NAO changes are much more dramatic as a result of enhanced energy (temperature) in the northern hemisphere.<a href="https://i.sstatic.net/UZ4Fl.jpg" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/UZ4Fl.jpg" alt="Goodkin et al"></a> (Source <a href="https://www.whoi.edu" rel="nofollow noreferrer">WHOI</a>)</p>

<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.231391598" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Visbeck et al. (2001)</a> describe the complex relationship between NAO and climate change associated with greenhouse gases:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Because global average temperatures are dominated by temperature variability over the northern land masses, a significant fraction of the recent warming trend in global surface temperatures can be explained as a response to observed changes in atmospheric circulation. Because the NAO is a natural mode of the atmosphere, one could argue that much of the recent warming is not related to the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past century. This viewpoint, however, ignores the possibility that anthropogenic climate change might influence modes of natural variability, perhaps making it more likely that one phase of the NAO is preferred over the other.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>As for predictions of the future effects cause by emission scenarios, that seems to be an ongoing topic of research. A couple of good starting point might be <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00595.1" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Yeager et al. (2012)</a> and the book chapter by <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/134GM09/summary" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Hurrell et al. (2013)</a> on the effects of climate change on NAO.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-01-10T15:49:31.007Z
2017-01-10T15:55:40.933Z
2017-01-10T15:55:40.933Z
arkaia
<p>I am looking for academic papers which show future predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) by considering climate change and the various emission scenarios. Do you have any suggestions?</p>

<climate><climate-change><climate-models><reference-request><nao>
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) future prediction - Academic papers?
test
# North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) future prediction - Academic papers?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2017-01-10)

I am looking for academic papers which show future predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) by considering climate change and the various emission scenarios. Do you have any suggestions?

**Tags:** climate, climate-change, climate-models, reference-request, nao


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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2017-01-10. Score: 8 | Accepted answer

A good start is the [article](https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=83537&tid=3622&cid=54686&c=2) by [Goodkin et al. (2008)](http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo352) that relates past fluctuations of NAO to climate variability and argues that in the late 20th century NAO changes are much more dramatic as a result of enhanced energy (temperature) in the northern hemisphere.[![Goodkin et al](https://i.sstatic.net/UZ4Fl.jpg)](https://i.sstatic.net/UZ4Fl.jpg) (Source [WHOI](https://www.whoi.edu))

[Visbeck et al. (2001)](http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.231391598) describe the complex relationship between NAO and climate change associated with greenhouse gases:

> Because global average temperatures are dominated by temperature variability over the northern land masses, a significant fraction of the recent warming trend in global surface temperatures can be explained as a response to observed changes in atmospheric circulation. Because the NAO is a natural mode of the atmosphere, one could argue that much of the recent warming is not related to the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past century. This viewpoint, however, ignores the possibility that anthropogenic climate change might influence modes of natural variability, perhaps making it more likely that one phase of the NAO is preferred over the other.

As for predictions of the future effects cause by emission scenarios, that seems to be an ongoing topic of research. A couple of good starting point might be [Yeager et al. (2012)](http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00595.1) and the book chapter by [Hurrell et al. (2013)](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/134GM09/summary) on the effects of climate change on NAO.


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