<p>Since you asked for an intuitive explanation, my thoughts would be that due to predicted increasing sea and global temperatures, the models used might be predicting a corresponding increase in monsoonal moisture or duration. </p>

<p>From <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_India#Tropical_wet" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Climate of India</a> :</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>In India a tropical wet and dry climate is more common. Noticeably
  drier than areas with a tropical monsoon climate, it prevails over
  most of inland peninsular India except for a semi arid rain shadow
  east of the Western Ghats.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>An article on 
 the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/monsoon/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">National Geographic</a> site discusses the relationship between the ocean air temperature and the monsoons in India:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The summer monsoon is associated with heavy rainfall. It usually
  happens between April and September. As winter ends, warm, moist air
  from the southwest Indian Ocean blows toward countries like India, Sri
  Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. The summer monsoon brings a humid
  climate and torrential rainfall to these areas.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>So in a region which is warmer, both air and ocean temperature, this monsoon effect is apparently predicted to be altered accordingly, resulting in either a higher precipitation, or longer duration to the wet cycle, to effectively make this region <em>wetter</em> than it is today. Without knowing more about how the models were derived, this is just speculation however.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-01-12T02:23:22.567Z
2018-01-12T02:23:22.567Z
justCal
<p>Is there an intuitive explanation for non-specialists why India is projected to experience a decrease in drought (= increase in <a href="https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/palmer-drought-severity-index-pdsi" rel="nofollow noreferrer">PDSI</a>) due to global warming, unlike most areas at the same latitude(s), at least according to <a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decades" rel="nofollow noreferrer">these maps by 
 Dai (2010)</a>?</p>

<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/LZqIz.jpg" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/LZqIz.jpg" alt="enter image description here"></a></p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-01-10T15:47:04.823Z
Doesn't it become more wet instead of dryer according to these maps? Or do I miss-understand them?
daniel.heydebreck
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-01-10T15:51:09.203Z
@daniel.neumann: India gets wetter... particularly in the long run (bottom maps).
got trolled too much this week
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-01-11T07:22:25.313Z
Ah. Sorry. I miss-understood the title of your question. I though you expected more droughts. Thanks for Clarification.
daniel.heydebreck
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-01-20T20:41:37.637Z
The Himalayas may be the most intuitive answer
f.thorpe
<climate-change><drought>
Effects of global warming on drought in India
got trolled too much this week
# Effects of global warming on drought in India

(Asked by: username_0 on 2018-01-10)

Is there an intuitive explanation for non-specialists why India is projected to experience a decrease in drought (= increase in [PDSI](https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/palmer-drought-severity-index-pdsi)) due to global warming, unlike most areas at the same latitude(s), at least according to [these maps by
Dai (2010)](https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decades)?

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/LZqIz.jpg)](https://i.sstatic.net/LZqIz.jpg)

**Tags:** climate-change, drought

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Doesn't it become more wet instead of dryer according to these maps? Or do I miss-understand them?  
> **username_0**: @daniel.neumann: India gets wetter... particularly in the long run (bottom maps).  
> **username_1**: Ah. Sorry. I miss-understood the title of your question. I though you expected more droughts. Thanks for Clarification.  
> **username_2**: The Himalayas may be the most intuitive answer  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_3 on 2018-01-12. Score: 4 | Accepted answer

Since you asked for an intuitive explanation, my thoughts would be that due to predicted increasing sea and global temperatures, the models used might be predicting a corresponding increase in monsoonal moisture or duration.

From [Climate of India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_India#Tropical_wet) :

> In India a tropical wet and dry climate is more common. Noticeably
> drier than areas with a tropical monsoon climate, it prevails over
> most of inland peninsular India except for a semi arid rain shadow
> east of the Western Ghats.

An article on
the [National Geographic](https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/monsoon/) site discusses the relationship between the ocean air temperature and the monsoons in India:

> The summer monsoon is associated with heavy rainfall. It usually
> happens between April and September. As winter ends, warm, moist air
> from the southwest Indian Ocean blows toward countries like India, Sri
> Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. The summer monsoon brings a humid
> climate and torrential rainfall to these areas.

So in a region which is warmer, both air and ocean temperature, this monsoon effect is apparently predicted to be altered accordingly, resulting in either a higher precipitation, or longer duration to the wet cycle, to effectively make this region *wetter* than it is today. Without knowing more about how the models were derived, this is just speculation however.


---

