<p>A very quick and general answer, if anyone wants to get more specific, feel free:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>the question is, El Niño phenomenon in Iran is likely to achieve? What
  are the consequences?</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Iran's been through several El Nino's, so its not like this year you'll see things you've never seen before.   I mean, you could.  There's always a chance of record breaking weather, but have a look at El Nino's and how often they occur, <a href="http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm" rel="nofollow noreferrer">here</a> and more numerical and monthly specifics <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml" rel="nofollow noreferrer">here</a>.</p>

<p>If we assume this year will be a strong El Nino, then look back at weather in Iran in winter 97-98 through Summer 1998, and Winter 82-83 into 1983.  Those were the 2 most recent big El Ninos.</p>

<p>I found this <a href="http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2015/10/20/894550/iran-braces-for-el-nino-hard-frost" rel="nofollow noreferrer">article</a> from last month.  You probably have better access to local updates than I do, but it seems that frost and flooding are the primary concerns.    As Gordon Stranger points out, that's not a guarantee, only an increased chance that it happens.   </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>El Niño is close to Iran</p>
</blockquote>

<p>El Nino is in the Pacific Ocean.   The El Nino effect is all over the globe, so it's, in a sense, close to everywhere on earth.  Here's a kind of cool picture of the effects of the 1982-83 El Nino.  Those were just the effects for that one year, and no two El Nino's will affect the globe in the same way, though they can have some similar patterns.</p>

<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/7gEvP.jpg" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/7gEvP.jpg" alt="enter image description here"></a></p>

<p><a href="http://www.marinebio.net/marinescience/02ocean/englobe.htm" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Source</a></p>

<blockquote>
  <p>However, you should be afraid of the possible occurrence of El Niño in
  Iran?</p>
</blockquote>

<p>When I first read this, I thought you were suggesting that he be afraid, but reading it again, I think what you're asking is whether you should be afraid.</p>

<p>El Nino probably isn't something to be afraid of cause there's no guarantee the effects will be bad where you are.   It's silly to worry about a 30% increased chance of something happening - which is basically what this is.  </p>

<p>If you live in a flood prone area try to prepare for flood.  Have food and drinking water on hand, maybe sandbags to put in-front of your doorway - which might help for a smaller flood.  If you're a farmer, as much as possible, try to prepare for Frost.   Fear isn't helpful, but planning ahead for possible bad weather events is always a good idea.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-11-08T14:39:46.287Z
2015-11-08T14:39:46.287Z
userLTK
<p>Although the El Nino phenomenon is primarily a Pacific Ocean phenomenon, affecting circum-Pacific countries the most, it occurs on such an enormous scale that it has knock-on affects around the world. These are difficult to generalize, but a rough idea can be gleaned from the map of global El Nino effects in such pages as:
<a href="http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2015/world/el-nino-droughts-take-toll-in-africa-asia-and-the-pacific/" rel="nofollow">http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2015/world/el-nino-droughts-take-toll-in-africa-asia-and-the-pacific/</a> 
Bear in mind that there are other co-variables of ocean and atmospheric circulation that operate upon time scales varying from years to decades. These can either amplify or negate the extra-Pacific El Nino effects. Therefore the specific effects for any given year require modelling with atmosphere-Ocean-coupled global climatic models. Also consider that the outputs from all AOGCMs don't all agree, so it is necessary to consider a consensus from several outputs before drawing firm conclusions. Yet another consideration is that computer simulations do not give equal weighting to different parameters. So, as far as Iran is concerned, the modelled El Nino effects are likely to be very reliable for temperature, but wildly unreliable for rainfall. If you are concerned about rainfall in Iran my advice is to run a correlation analysis between the two variables: historic El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal index (available on internet), and historic rainfall. Try this for monthly, seasonal and/or annual data. If the correlation coefficient is high, say >0.70, use this relationship to adjust the normal expected rainfall in Iran. Attach as much credence to this as to any forward projections from any AOGCM. Rainfall analysis is not what AOGCMs were designed for. </p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-11-07T10:00:50.100Z
However, you should be afraid of the possible occurrence of El Niño in Iran?
Mohsen Kh.
CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-11-07T08:44:44.300Z
2015-11-07T08:44:44.300Z
Gordon Stanger
<p>According to reports and charts meteorological phenomenon El Niño is close to Iran, but the question is, El Niño phenomenon in Iran is likely to achieve? 
What are the consequences?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-11-07T07:40:32.767Z
@Mohsen_Kh.: It would be helpful if you could post links to the reports & charts you mention in your question.
Fred
<meteorology>
El Nino in the Middle East
Mohsen Kh.
# El Nino in the Middle East

(Asked by: username_0 on 2015-11-07)

According to reports and charts meteorological phenomenon El Niño is close to Iran, but the question is, El Niño phenomenon in Iran is likely to achieve?
What are the consequences?

**Tags:** meteorology

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: @Mohsen_Kh.: It would be helpful if you could post links to the reports & charts you mention in your question.  

---

## 2 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2015-11-08. Score: 2

A very quick and general answer, if anyone wants to get more specific, feel free:

> the question is, El Niño phenomenon in Iran is likely to achieve? What
> are the consequences?

Iran's been through several El Nino's, so its not like this year you'll see things you've never seen before. I mean, you could. There's always a chance of record breaking weather, but have a look at El Nino's and how often they occur, [here](http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm) and more numerical and monthly specifics [here](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml).

If we assume this year will be a strong El Nino, then look back at weather in Iran in winter 97-98 through Summer 1998, and Winter 82-83 into 1983. Those were the 2 most recent big El Ninos.

I found this [article](http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2015/10/20/894550/iran-braces-for-el-nino-hard-frost) from last month. You probably have better access to local updates than I do, but it seems that frost and flooding are the primary concerns. As username_3 Stranger points out, that's not a guarantee, only an increased chance that it happens.

> El Niño is close to Iran

El Nino is in the Pacific Ocean. The El Nino effect is all over the globe, so it's, in a sense, close to everywhere on earth. Here's a kind of cool picture of the effects of the 1982-83 El Nino. Those were just the effects for that one year, and no two El Nino's will affect the globe in the same way, though they can have some similar patterns.

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/7gEvP.jpg)](https://i.sstatic.net/7gEvP.jpg)

[Source](http://www.marinebio.net/marinescience/02ocean/englobe.htm)

> However, you should be afraid of the possible occurrence of El Niño in
> Iran?

When I first read this, I thought you were suggesting that he be afraid, but reading it again, I think what you're asking is whether you should be afraid.

El Nino probably isn't something to be afraid of cause there's no guarantee the effects will be bad where you are. It's silly to worry about a 30% increased chance of something happening - which is basically what this is.

If you live in a flood prone area try to prepare for flood. Have food and drinking water on hand, maybe sandbags to put in-front of your doorway - which might help for a smaller flood. If you're a farmer, as much as possible, try to prepare for Frost. Fear isn't helpful, but planning ahead for possible bad weather events is always a good idea.


---

### Answer by username_3 on 2015-11-07. Score: 1

Although the El Nino phenomenon is primarily a Pacific Ocean phenomenon, affecting circum-Pacific countries the most, it occurs on such an enormous scale that it has knock-on affects around the world. These are difficult to generalize, but a rough idea can be gleaned from the map of global El Nino effects in such pages as:
<http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2015/world/el-nino-droughts-take-toll-in-africa-asia-and-the-pacific/>
Bear in mind that there are other co-variables of ocean and atmospheric circulation that operate upon time scales varying from years to decades. These can either amplify or negate the extra-Pacific El Nino effects. Therefore the specific effects for any given year require modelling with atmosphere-Ocean-coupled global climatic models. Also consider that the outputs from all AOGCMs don't all agree, so it is necessary to consider a consensus from several outputs before drawing firm conclusions. Yet another consideration is that computer simulations do not give equal weighting to different parameters. So, as far as Iran is concerned, the modelled El Nino effects are likely to be very reliable for temperature, but wildly unreliable for rainfall. If you are concerned about rainfall in Iran my advice is to run a correlation analysis between the two variables: historic El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal index (available on internet), and historic rainfall. Try this for monthly, seasonal and/or annual data. If the correlation coefficient is high, say >0.70, use this relationship to adjust the normal expected rainfall in Iran. Attach as much credence to this as to any forward projections from any AOGCM. Rainfall analysis is not what AOGCMs were designed for.

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: However, you should be afraid of the possible occurrence of El Niño in Iran?  

---

