<p>No. Even with Petaflop scale supercomputers, tornadoes and other storm phenomena are not &quot;Predictable&quot;, often weather data in live/real time is offset to assess a storm</p>
<ul>
<li>Lower-ing pressure</li>
<li>wind speed rising faster than established norms</li>
<li>Humidity rising
Many people near a tornado tell of their ears &quot;popping&quot; due to the pressure change.</li>
</ul>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-12-18T06:59:58.773Z
2021-12-18T06:59:58.773Z
LazyReader
<p>Honestly, such a question is almost like &quot;what is the meaning of life.&quot; It is a very loaded question in a single sentence.</p>
<p>I'll start with tackling the issue of supercomputers. I think people put too much stock into supercomputers. &quot;Can supercomputers do xyz?&quot; is not a good question for several reasons.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>There is a fundamental misunderstanding of what supercomputers are. Supercomputers are essentially a bunch of computers that tag-team to tackle large problems that an individual computer cannot handle. As a result, a supercomputer is programmed similar to how one programs a normal computer. So it isn't a matter of what a supercomputer can do, rather what methods a human mind can conceive of and implement into a supercomputer. Then, it can be asked whether the supercomputer can handle the method.</p>
</li>
<li><p>We have supercomputers. Supercomputers can simulate the weather using weather models, specialized software for meteorology. If the simulations can be done before the event occurs, it can be used for prediction. However the intense cost for simulating tornadoes make the settings only applicable for research.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>Now there is another issue for your question- what do you mean by predicted or forecasted? As I said, there are weather models that simulate the weather, and those models can use <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/thompson/stp_scp.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer">researched equations</a> that estimate the atmosphere's ability to develop tornadoes over an area at a certain time. But when you say forecast or predict, are you asking for individual tornadoes? Accuracy is a large portion of predictability. If a tornado is 5 km off from the prediction, is that a bad forecast? Even from observations (here in the U.S.) <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2021/06/16/tornado-warning-system-has-come-long-way-but-could-better/5152104001/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">it is hard to even tell that a tornado is imminent greater than 9 minutes ahead of time</a>.</p>
<p>I can go on and on. Other issues to consider are</p>
<ul>
<li>You need to predict severe weather before you predict tornadoes.</li>
<li>The lead time for the prediction.</li>
<li>The amount of time and effectiveness in communicating the prediction.</li>
</ul>
<p>But I'll finish with this last note. My last complaint about your question is that it doesn't question the current capacity explicitly, but questions future capacity. Nobody short of a time-traveler can definitively say that someone using a supercomputer <strong>can never</strong> predict a tornado. So there is no good answer to your question.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-12-17T16:34:29.120Z
2021-12-17T16:34:29.120Z
BarocliniCplusplus
<p>Can <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado" rel="nofollow noreferrer">tornadoes</a> be predicted or forecasted using supercomputers?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-12-17T03:42:54.587Z
Your **massive** link to a Google search site listing numerous examples of tornadoes is not useful. It requires **us** to look at a lot general things about tornadoes. Most of us know what tornadoes are. A link to a **specific** web page about tornadoes would have been more useful, if one is needed at all. Ignoring that, your question is reasonable.
Fred
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-12-17T06:50:26.277Z
the google link leads to some food related stuff for me,my google is set to norwegian language.i vote to close this as a link only question,the question is a good one but it show little effort from the OP when asking.
trond hansen
<weather-forecasting><atmosphere-modelling><tornado>
Tornado prediction or forecasting by supercomputers
Prashant Akerkar
# Tornado prediction or forecasting by supercomputers

(Asked by: username_0 on 2021-12-17)

Can [tornadoes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado) be predicted or forecasted using supercomputers?

**Tags:** weather-forecasting, atmosphere-modelling, tornado

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Your **massive** link to a Google search site listing numerous examples of tornadoes is not useful. It requires **us** to look at a lot general things about tornadoes. Most of us know what tornadoes are. A link to a **specific** web page about tornadoes would have been more useful, if one is needed at all. Ignoring that, your question is reasonable.  
> **username_2**: the google link leads to some food related stuff for me,my google is set to norwegian language.i vote to close this as a link only question,the question is a good one but it show little effort from the OP when asking.  

---

## 2 answers

### Answer by username_3 on 2021-12-18. Score: 0 | Accepted answer

No. Even with Petaflop scale supercomputers, tornadoes and other storm phenomena are not "Predictable", often weather data in live/real time is offset to assess a storm

* Lower-ing pressure
* wind speed rising faster than established norms
* Humidity rising
  Many people near a tornado tell of their ears "popping" due to the pressure change.


---

### Answer by username_4 on 2021-12-17. Score: 4

Honestly, such a question is almost like "what is the meaning of life." It is a very loaded question in a single sentence.

I'll start with tackling the issue of supercomputers. I think people put too much stock into supercomputers. "Can supercomputers do xyz?" is not a good question for several reasons.

1. There is a fundamental misunderstanding of what supercomputers are. Supercomputers are essentially a bunch of computers that tag-team to tackle large problems that an individual computer cannot handle. As a result, a supercomputer is programmed similar to how one programs a normal computer. So it isn't a matter of what a supercomputer can do, rather what methods a human mind can conceive of and implement into a supercomputer. Then, it can be asked whether the supercomputer can handle the method.
2. We have supercomputers. Supercomputers can simulate the weather using weather models, specialized software for meteorology. If the simulations can be done before the event occurs, it can be used for prediction. However the intense cost for simulating tornadoes make the settings only applicable for research.

Now there is another issue for your question- what do you mean by predicted or forecasted? As I said, there are weather models that simulate the weather, and those models can use [researched equations](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/thompson/stp_scp.pdf) that estimate the atmosphere's ability to develop tornadoes over an area at a certain time. But when you say forecast or predict, are you asking for individual tornadoes? Accuracy is a large portion of predictability. If a tornado is 5 km off from the prediction, is that a bad forecast? Even from observations (here in the U.S.) [it is hard to even tell that a tornado is imminent greater than 9 minutes ahead of time](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2021/06/16/tornado-warning-system-has-come-long-way-but-could-better/5152104001/).

I can go on and on. Other issues to consider are

* You need to predict severe weather before you predict tornadoes.
* The lead time for the prediction.
* The amount of time and effectiveness in communicating the prediction.

But I'll finish with this last note. My last complaint about your question is that it doesn't question the current capacity explicitly, but questions future capacity. Nobody short of a time-traveler can definitively say that someone using a supercomputer **can never** predict a tornado. So there is no good answer to your question.


---

