<p>The abrupt rise then slower decay argues for some sort of tipping point event.  While the Milhankovich cycles may be the driving force, they are to first approximation sinusoidal.</p>

<p>One candidate for this could be a methane pulse.  E.g. you get warm enough to thaw the arctic permafrost, and while the heat seeps in you get a continuous source of methane.  If ocean temps get warm enough clathrate methane is released.  This is happening off of the north Siberian coast now.  Magnitude of this is up in the air, but the potential for gigatons is there.  </p>

<p>I don't think that methane by itself has a long enough residence time, but once past a threshold, it may trigger further releases in a rapid positive feedback loop.  </p>

<p>So the Milhankovich cycle warms the arctic a bit.  Passes a tipping point, methane is released starting a feedback loop releasing more and more methane, warming the earth rapidly by 10 degrees.  Methane release tapers off as the heat has to soak in deeper and deeper to be effective at further releases.  </p>

<p>If you wanted to check this, check the phase of the Milhankovich forcing to the temperature.  This notion is more plausible if there is substantial forcing for the northern hemisphere before the temperature spike occurs.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-05-27T19:31:56.287Z
Could use some references...
jeffronicus
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-05-29T12:37:18.250Z
Could. But I'm not a research service.  Answers here are meant to give people leads to do their own research.
Sherwood Botsford
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-05-27T14:09:19.350Z
2019-05-27T14:09:19.350Z
Sherwood Botsford
<p>Except a hypothesized orbital forcing! Ice cores shows that there are several irregular sharp temperature peaks in between of the big 100,000 years glaciations. What could cause those peaks? </p>

<p>Almost all energy excess is stored in the oceans and common sense says that there have to be a threshold for how much energy the oceans can take up without drastically changing the climate. There are two possibilities: either there is a turn to cooling down the oceans or there isn't.</p>

<p>Could the energy from the oceans take over the climate system totally for a time long enough to be cooled down? Could the energy from the oceans, if big enough cause global storms independent of the insolation? Convective clouds transport warm vapor high up in troposphere where condensation release an enormous amount of energy - mostly as heat energy that spreads from there. Could a global cover of convective clouds be maintained entirely by the ocean heat content, if big enough? </p>

<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/IVr0U.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/IVr0U.png" alt="enter image description here"></a></p>

<p>In the diagram, there is a well defined peek about 50,000 years ago, for example. Sudden up and sudden down. Increased insolation (or something else) caused a sudden warming, that "immediately" turned back. Could it have been caused by a long time of storms and convection?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-05-23T13:06:23.027Z
@Universal_learner: Ice core shows a lot of remarkable peaks that isn't periodical at all, so there must be further mechanisms involved in the peaks.
Lehs
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-05-23T17:03:41.570Z
@Lehs I've made some edits to tidy up the English in the question, where I could clearly see the intent. However, there are some parts where I'm really not sure what you're trying to say. You may need to clarify what you mean to get good answers.
Semidiurnal Simon
<climate-change><oceanography><glaciation><convection>
What could cause a turn from global warming to global cooling?
Lehs
# What could cause a turn from global warming to global cooling?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2019-05-23)

Except a hypothesized orbital forcing! Ice cores shows that there are several irregular sharp temperature peaks in between of the big 100,000 years glaciations. What could cause those peaks?

Almost all energy excess is stored in the oceans and common sense says that there have to be a threshold for how much energy the oceans can take up without drastically changing the climate. There are two possibilities: either there is a turn to cooling down the oceans or there isn't.

Could the energy from the oceans take over the climate system totally for a time long enough to be cooled down? Could the energy from the oceans, if big enough cause global storms independent of the insolation? Convective clouds transport warm vapor high up in troposphere where condensation release an enormous amount of energy - mostly as heat energy that spreads from there. Could a global cover of convective clouds be maintained entirely by the ocean heat content, if big enough?

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/IVr0U.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/IVr0U.png)

In the diagram, there is a well defined peek about 50,000 years ago, for example. Sudden up and sudden down. Increased insolation (or something else) caused a sudden warming, that "immediately" turned back. Could it have been caused by a long time of storms and convection?

**Tags:** climate-change, oceanography, glaciation, convection

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: @Universal_learner: Ice core shows a lot of remarkable peaks that isn't periodical at all, so there must be further mechanisms involved in the peaks.  
> **username_1**: @username_0 I've made some edits to tidy up the English in the question, where I could clearly see the intent. However, there are some parts where I'm really not sure what you're trying to say. You may need to clarify what you mean to get good answers.  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2019-05-27. Score: 0

The abrupt rise then slower decay argues for some sort of tipping point event. While the Milhankovich cycles may be the driving force, they are to first approximation sinusoidal.

One candidate for this could be a methane pulse. E.g. you get warm enough to thaw the arctic permafrost, and while the heat seeps in you get a continuous source of methane. If ocean temps get warm enough clathrate methane is released. This is happening off of the north Siberian coast now. Magnitude of this is up in the air, but the potential for gigatons is there.

I don't think that methane by itself has a long enough residence time, but once past a threshold, it may trigger further releases in a rapid positive feedback loop.

So the Milhankovich cycle warms the arctic a bit. Passes a tipping point, methane is released starting a feedback loop releasing more and more methane, warming the earth rapidly by 10 degrees. Methane release tapers off as the heat has to soak in deeper and deeper to be effective at further releases.

If you wanted to check this, check the phase of the Milhankovich forcing to the temperature. This notion is more plausible if there is substantial forcing for the northern hemisphere before the temperature spike occurs.

> **Comments:**
> **username_3**: Could use some references...  
> **username_2**: Could. But I'm not a research service.  Answers here are meant to give people leads to do their own research.  

---

