<p>It seems to be the case that 1C of global heating caused the whole global temperature bell curve to shift two standard deviations to the right. (see below)</p>

<p>To anyone knowing much about statistics and bell curves this would seem to make the 80 years BAU 5C temperature anomaly have the drastically lethal consequence of much more frequent heat waves greatly exceeding the 44C maximum human survival limit. </p>

<p>My own projections of the current trend are a little more pessimistic than IPCC RCP8.5 projections. They simply extrapolate the current exponential increase of atmospheric CO2 and project 877 PPM by 2100 then apply the current IPCC equilibrium CO2 sensitivity formula</p>

<p><strong>3C ± 1.5C for every doubling of atmospheric CO2</strong><br>
log2(877/280) * 1.5 = 2.47<br>
log2(877/280) * 3.0 = 4.94   // Business as usual for 80 more years<br>
log2(877/280) * 4.5 = 7.41<br></p>

<p>​​​​<a href="https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_17/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_17/</a> <br>
When we examine this graph we see that a single degree of temperature anomaly is associated with a shift of the whole temperature bell curve two standard deviations to the right. </p>

<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/zJI26.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/zJI26.png" alt="enter image description here"></a></p>

<p>If we hypothesize that a single degree of temperature anomaly directly caused the entire bell curve to shift the right two standard deviations then the consequences of a 5C would seem to be quite lethal. </p>

<p>Once we numerically quantify the relationship between temperature anomaly and shifts of the bell curve then we would be able to apply this to historical geographical  temperature extremes and predict the frequency, geographic and temporal extent of heat waves that would kill everything within their boundaries. </p>

<p>This relationship seems to predict that the 5C temperature anomaly projected from "business as usual" for 80 more years could reasonably result in 60C (140F) killer heat waves. A 60C heat wave will kill everything in its path very quickly. Apparently humans cannot survive 44C for very long.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-12-17T00:16:55.653Z
@ebv The key question that I am asking is does the fact that a 1C temperature anomaly seemed to have moved the whole temperature anomaly bell curve to the right by two standard deviations indicate that a 5C temperature anomaly may cause temperature extremes greater than 50C? (no possible human survival at 50C).
polcott
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-12-17T03:02:21.483Z
The assumption here is not including any other cycle to get involved to 'remove' or balance heat effects that increase to the extreme. For instance, increased cloud cover from the heat would increase cloud cover and rainfall as an 'air conditioning' event much like what is experienced in tropical regions. Also, if less cloud cover is not happening, then in the evening, much of this heat would escape to space and temperatures would drop below 60F in the evening as they do in the desert. Having living in both types of climates, daytime heat often balances by what happens in the evening.
J. Kaciulis
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-12-17T03:49:57.540Z
@J.Kaciulis All that I am focusing on it that when a 1C temperature anomaly causes 3 sigma events to occur 10% of the time instead of 0.13% of the time. I don't know how this extrapolates to a 5C anomaly, I only know its not good, it is probably very bad. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46859000
polcott
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-12-19T04:36:37.087Z
@Fred I already have good numbers on human survivability from NASA. In very low humidity a human can survive for an hour @ 60C very high humidity a human can survive less than 10 minutes at 50C. https://www.nib.com.au/the-checkup/healthy-living/what's-the-hottest-temperature-the-human-body-can-cope-with
polcott
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-12-19T04:40:25.700Z
@Fred I am most interested in finding out the temperature value for the standard deviation shown on the graph. This will show how many degrees of increased temperature extremes that we can expect from the current 1C of mean global heating. Next I would like to know the correlation between changes to the mean global temperature and the its related standard deviation. Currently is looks like a linear relationship 1C anomaly = 2-sigma. In the end I want to see the probability of 5C temperature anomaly causing 50C to 60C heat waves. This makes climate change alarm objectively justified.
polcott
<climate-change>
Are 60C heat waves predicted by 5C of global heating? (The worst consequence of global heating)
polcott
# Are 60C heat waves predicted by 5C of global heating? (The worst consequence of global heating)

(Asked by: username_0 on 2019-12-16)

It seems to be the case that 1C of global heating caused the whole global temperature bell curve to shift two standard deviations to the right. (see below)

To anyone knowing much about statistics and bell curves this would seem to make the 80 years BAU 5C temperature anomaly have the drastically lethal consequence of much more frequent heat waves greatly exceeding the 44C maximum human survival limit.

My own projections of the current trend are a little more pessimistic than IPCC RCP8.5 projections. They simply extrapolate the current exponential increase of atmospheric CO2 and project 877 PPM by 2100 then apply the current IPCC equilibrium CO2 sensitivity formula

**3C ± 1.5C for every doubling of atmospheric CO2**  
log2(877/280) \* 1.5 = 2.47  
log2(877/280) \* 3.0 = 4.94 // Business as usual for 80 more years  
log2(877/280) \* 4.5 = 7.41

​​​​<https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_17/>   
When we examine this graph we see that a single degree of temperature anomaly is associated with a shift of the whole temperature bell curve two standard deviations to the right.

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/zJI26.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/zJI26.png)

If we hypothesize that a single degree of temperature anomaly directly caused the entire bell curve to shift the right two standard deviations then the consequences of a 5C would seem to be quite lethal.

Once we numerically quantify the relationship between temperature anomaly and shifts of the bell curve then we would be able to apply this to historical geographical temperature extremes and predict the frequency, geographic and temporal extent of heat waves that would kill everything within their boundaries.

This relationship seems to predict that the 5C temperature anomaly projected from "business as usual" for 80 more years could reasonably result in 60C (140F) killer heat waves. A 60C heat wave will kill everything in its path very quickly. Apparently humans cannot survive 44C for very long.

**Tags:** climate-change

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: @ebv The key question that I am asking is does the fact that a 1C temperature anomaly seemed to have moved the whole temperature anomaly bell curve to the right by two standard deviations indicate that a 5C temperature anomaly may cause temperature extremes greater than 50C? (no possible human survival at 50C).  
> **username_1**: The assumption here is not including any other cycle to get involved to 'remove' or balance heat effects that increase to the extreme. For instance, increased cloud cover from the heat would increase cloud cover and rainfall as an 'air conditioning' event much like what is experienced in tropical regions. Also, if less cloud cover is not happening, then in the evening, much of this heat would escape to space and temperatures would drop below 60F in the evening as they do in the desert. Having living in both types of climates, daytime heat often balances by what happens in the evening.  
> **username_0**: @J.username_1 All that I am focusing on it that when a 1C temperature anomaly causes 3 sigma events to occur 10% of the time instead of 0.13% of the time. I don't know how this extrapolates to a 5C anomaly, I only know its not good, it is probably very bad. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46859000  
> **username_0**: @Fred I already have good numbers on human survivability from NASA. In very low humidity a human can survive for an hour @ 60C very high humidity a human can survive less than 10 minutes at 50C. https://www.nib.com.au/the-checkup/healthy-living/what's-the-hottest-temperature-the-human-body-can-cope-with  
> **username_0**: @Fred I am most interested in finding out the temperature value for the standard deviation shown on the graph. This will show how many degrees of increased temperature extremes that we can expect from the current 1C of mean global heating. Next I would like to know the correlation between changes to the mean global temperature and the its related standard deviation. Currently is looks like a linear relationship 1C anomaly = 2-sigma. In the end I want to see the probability of 5C temperature anomaly causing 50C to 60C heat waves. This makes climate change alarm objectively justified.  

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## 0 answers

