<p>I have not heard of complete theories connecting volcano temperatures to eruption possibilities either. If you mean subsurface magma temperatures, it is uncommon for there to be direct observations / readings for a particular volcano. Fumarolic temperatures, on the other hand, are directly indicative of current volcanic activity and are much more easily measured (<a href="http://data.nistep.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/11035/2812/1/NISTEP-STT032E-85.pdf" rel="noreferrer">example</a>). In addition, geochemical analysis of fumarolic gases can be related to eruption probability (<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF02596951" rel="noreferrer">example</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF02596949" rel="noreferrer">example</a>).</p>

<p>Even in models of magma ascent, temperature differences are not the main focus, but rather pressure differences are (<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X17306556" rel="noreferrer">example</a>). This is directly related to g.z.'s comment that volatile content certainly can be a dominant eruptive trigger.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-07-14T17:31:35.913Z
I am a complete layman. What are fumarolic temperatures?
Ludi
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-07-16T02:17:27.737Z
@Ludi Fumaroles are holes that spew out volcanic gases (sulfur is a common one).
g.z.
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-07-14T16:11:35.960Z
2018-07-14T16:11:35.960Z
Jisoo
<p><a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_of_volcanic_activity" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Wikipedia</a> names thermal monitoring as one of the methods for predicting volcanic eruptions. I was able to find some papers (<a href="https://www.dartmouth.edu/~volcano/BiThesis.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">First</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214242815000029" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Second</a>) on such thermometry and while they are challenging (I retired from physics years ago), I will consult them for the methods.</p>

<p>What I completely fail to find information on, is how current thermal behavior is supposed to be linked to <em>future</em> eruptions (other than: "it’s getting hotter, that could be magma rising upwards"). I realize we don’t have complete theories, but I hope you can tell me what kinds of ansatzes there are.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-07-14T00:32:20.173Z
As far as I know, once a melt makes its way into a magma chamber, volatile content is the dominant eruptive trigger. Volatiles generally trigger eruptions in one of two ways. As a magma ascends, the decrease in pressure lowers the solubility of dissolved volatiles in the melt which creates bubbles. Alternatively there can be so-called "phreatomagmatic eruptions" which occur when ascending magma reacts with groundwater. At first glance, this makes  me think that thermal monitoring may not be the best method for predicting eruptions. It's an interesting question - I'll ask around and report back
g.z.
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-07-07T23:30:13.310Z
@john this is the earth science
Harrychink
<geophysics><volcanology>
What theories exist connecting volcano temperatures to eruption probabilities?
Ludi
# What theories exist connecting volcano temperatures to eruption probabilities?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2018-07-11)

[Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_of_volcanic_activity) names thermal monitoring as one of the methods for predicting volcanic eruptions. I was able to find some papers ([First](https://www.dartmouth.edu/~volcano/BiThesis.html), [Second](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214242815000029)) on such thermometry and while they are challenging (I retired from physics years ago), I will consult them for the methods.

What I completely fail to find information on, is how current thermal behavior is supposed to be linked to *future* eruptions (other than: "it’s getting hotter, that could be magma rising upwards"). I realize we don’t have complete theories, but I hope you can tell me what kinds of ansatzes there are.

**Tags:** geophysics, volcanology

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: As far as I know, once a melt makes its way into a magma chamber, volatile content is the dominant eruptive trigger. Volatiles generally trigger eruptions in one of two ways. As a magma ascends, the decrease in pressure lowers the solubility of dissolved volatiles in the melt which creates bubbles. Alternatively there can be so-called "phreatomagmatic eruptions" which occur when ascending magma reacts with groundwater. At first glance, this makes  me think that thermal monitoring may not be the best method for predicting eruptions. It's an interesting question - I'll ask around and report back  
> **username_2**: @john this is the earth science  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_3 on 2018-07-14. Score: 4

I have not heard of complete theories connecting volcano temperatures to eruption possibilities either. If you mean subsurface magma temperatures, it is uncommon for there to be direct observations / readings for a particular volcano. Fumarolic temperatures, on the other hand, are directly indicative of current volcanic activity and are much more easily measured ([example](http://data.nistep.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/11035/2812/1/NISTEP-STT032E-85.pdf)). In addition, geochemical analysis of fumarolic gases can be related to eruption probability ([example](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF02596951), [example](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF02596949)).

Even in models of magma ascent, temperature differences are not the main focus, but rather pressure differences are ([example](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X17306556)). This is directly related to g.z.'s comment that volatile content certainly can be a dominant eruptive trigger.

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: I am a complete layman. What are fumarolic temperatures?  
> **username_1**: @username_0 Fumaroles are holes that spew out volcanic gases (sulfur is a common one).  

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