<p><strong>One model is the <a href="http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/Aurora/ovation/">OVATION auroral precipitation model</a>.</strong></p>

<p>OVATION <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backronym">stands for</a> Oval  Variation,  Assessment,  Tracking,  Intensity, and  Online  Nowcasting.</p>

<p>The <a href="http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/">NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center</a> uses the OVATION Prime model for their 30-minute aurora forecast. They use a modified version of the model for their <a href="http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-3-day-forecast">3-day forecast</a>. It was devised by Newell et al. (2010) at Johns Hopkins University. </p>

<p>You can read all about it in Machol et al. (2013). <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000746/full">The paper</a> is open access and contains several equations and a description of the method. They explain:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The OVATION Prime model is derived from electron and proton
  flux measurements from the SSJ4 detectors on the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Meteorological_Satellite_Program">DMSP satellites</a>.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>SSJ4 sensors, according to <a href="http://www.ferzkopp.net/Personal/Thesis/node28.html">one source</a>:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>[...consist] of an array of four cylindrical, curved plate, electrostatic analyzers configured into two pairs; one pair each to measure electrons and ions. Each pair covers the energy range from 30 eV to 30 keV in 20 channels spaced at equal intervals in energy on a logarithmic scale. </p>
</blockquote>

<h3>References</h3>

<p>Machol, J. L., J. C. Green, R. J. Redmon, R. A. Viereck, and P. T. Newell (2012), Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae, Space Weather, 10, S03005, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000746/full">doi:10.1029/2011SW000746</a>.</p>

<p>Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, and S. Wing (2010a), Seasonal variations in diffuse, monoenergetic, and broadband aurora, J. Geophys. Res., 115, A03216, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JA014805/full">doi:10.1029/2009JA014805</a>.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-09-17T00:37:33.770Z
2015-09-17T00:37:33.770Z
Matt Hall
<p>Are there any resources (books/links) that discuss the mathematical tools and methods used to forecast the aurora borealis activity in a particular location?</p>

<p>I see many websites that claim to predict aurora, but are there any open source code that lets you have an idea of the models?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-09-16T20:03:07.450Z
Have a read of [NOAA's Space Weather Prediction](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/) pages, especially the bit about [models](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/models). Maybe you will have more specific questions after reading a bit more about it.
Matt Hall
CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-09-17T00:09:01.770Z
Thanks, but um, where is the forecasting formula? Or is it not public?
Victor
<models><auroras>
What modelling approaches are used to predict the aurora?
Victor
# What modelling approaches are used to predict the aurora?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2015-09-16)

Are there any resources (books/links) that discuss the mathematical tools and methods used to forecast the aurora borealis activity in a particular location?

I see many websites that claim to predict aurora, but are there any open source code that lets you have an idea of the models?

**Tags:** models, auroras

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Have a read of [NOAA's Space Weather Prediction](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/) pages, especially the bit about [models](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/models). Maybe you will have more specific questions after reading a bit more about it.  
> **username_0**: Thanks, but um, where is the forecasting formula? Or is it not public?  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2015-09-17. Score: 5 | Accepted answer

**One model is the [OVATION auroral precipitation model](http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/Aurora/ovation/).**

OVATION [stands for](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backronym) Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting.

The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/) uses the OVATION Prime model for their 30-minute aurora forecast. They use a modified version of the model for their [3-day forecast](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-3-day-forecast). It was devised by Newell et al. (2010) at Johns Hopkins University.

You can read all about it in Machol et al. (2013). [The paper](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000746/full) is open access and contains several equations and a description of the method. They explain:

> The OVATION Prime model is derived from electron and proton
> flux measurements from the SSJ4 detectors on the [DMSP satellites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Meteorological_Satellite_Program).

SSJ4 sensors, according to [one source](http://www.ferzkopp.net/Personal/Thesis/node28.html):

> [...consist] of an array of four cylindrical, curved plate, electrostatic analyzers configured into two pairs; one pair each to measure electrons and ions. Each pair covers the energy range from 30 eV to 30 keV in 20 channels spaced at equal intervals in energy on a logarithmic scale.

### References

Machol, J. L., J. C. Green, R. J. Redmon, R. A. Viereck, and P. T. Newell (2012), Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae, Space Weather, 10, S03005, [doi:10.1029/2011SW000746](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000746/full).

Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, and S. Wing (2010a), Seasonal variations in diffuse, monoenergetic, and broadband aurora, J. Geophys. Res., 115, A03216, [doi:10.1029/2009JA014805](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JA014805/full).


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