<p>The preseason and midseason forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predicted not just a very active hurricane season (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy" rel="nofollow noreferrer">accumulated cyclone energy</a> (ACE) greater than 160.1) but a hyperactive hurricane season, with all respected seasonal forecasting organizations predicting ACE numbers well into the 200s, along with a huge number of named storms.</p>
<p>The Atlantic hurricane season is rapidly tailing off. The current (as of 23 October 2024) Atlantic ACE is about 145. Tropical Storm Nadine and Hurricane Oscar have petered out, and nothing is brewing. I don't see an Atlantic ACE of greater than 160 in the offing, let alone well into the 200s. So while the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been &quot;above average&quot;, it has not been &quot;very active&quot;, and certainly not hyperactive.</p>
<p>It appears to me that the seasonal forecasters were more than a bit off.</p>
<ul>
<li>Is this an accurate assessment?</li>
<li>If this is not an accurate assessment, how much variance should we expect from those early and midseason forecasts and late season / post season reality?</li>
<li>If this is an accurate assessment, what went wrong with those preseason and midseason forecasts?</li>
</ul>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-10-25T19:16:31.813Z
Some sites are predicting that something tropical might be brewing at the end of October or start of November. Whatever that is, I do not expect that to be anywhere close to the 15 ACE points needed to raise this season to the "very active" level, let alone 60+ points needed to raise this season to the hyperactive level. That said, Colorado State University will release their end of season post mortem on November 26. It might be best to put this question on hold until then.
David Hammen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-10-25T19:21:19.387Z
People are already whitewashing the preseason predictions. I do not buy it. Something did go wrong. Something always goes wrong with long term forecasts. The Farmer's Almanac is an obvious target for being no better than a coin flip. My question is whether predictions from CSU, NOAA, and others are no better than a coin flip.
David Hammen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-10-27T09:13:31.613Z
@mmt10 It wasn't just NOAA. Colorado State University, Arizona State University, North Carolina State University, the UK Tropical Storm Risk, the French Météo-France, the Mexican Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, and several others all predicted a very active to a hyperactive to a beyond hyperactive hurricane season. We haven't seen that. It will take four Oscars just to hit the lower limit of "very active". There is something that might form in the southwest Caribbean, but I suspect it too will fizzle. It's just too late in the season for that to win an Oscar (or a Patty, in this case).
David Hammen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-10-27T11:37:09.790Z
@mmt10 I live south of Houston, where the season is almost certainly over for us. OTOH, I do know the season is not over yet. Regarding those two storms, even in extremely mild years all it takes is one nasty storm to make the season bad for some area. A weird feature for this season was the huge fraction of tropical storms that eventually turned into hurricanes. Nobody predicted that; nobody would have ever predicted that. I'm waiting for a post mortem before I accept an answer, and that won't come out until late November.
David Hammen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-11-09T14:57:12.907Z
@user35846 When adjusted for inflation, the US economic costs of Katrina and Harvey were about \$125 billion each. Helene and Milton are lower, \$88 and \$85 billion. Helene and Milton were nasty, but not as nasty as were Katrina or Harvey.
David Hammen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-11-09T15:14:54.650Z
@user35846 I'm holding off on answering, for now, but I remain of the opinion that the hurricane season forecasters messed up. The Atlantic ACE has grown to about 158, which is just shy of "active". The number might well cross the 160 boundary thanks to Rafael, but the initial forecasts were for an ACE of 240 -- 2005 level. That most certainly is not going to happen. I suspect the key was that prior to the start of the season there was an expectation of a very strong La Nina. That just didn't happen. The expected 2024 La Nina fizzled.
David Hammen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-11-11T12:55:22.820Z
The Atlantic ACE is now at 159.8, which is just above the 159.6 threshold that qualifies it as an "extremely active" season. Rafael has fizzled. There is no way it is going to come even close to the 240 level predicted by many organizations prior to the season.
David Hammen
<tropical-cyclone><seasons><atlantic>
What, if anything, went wrong with the forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?
David Hammen
# What, if anything, went wrong with the forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2024-10-23)

The preseason and midseason forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predicted not just a very active hurricane season ([accumulated cyclone energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy) (ACE) greater than 160.1) but a hyperactive hurricane season, with all respected seasonal forecasting organizations predicting ACE numbers well into the 200s, along with a huge number of named storms.

The Atlantic hurricane season is rapidly tailing off. The current (as of 23 October 2024) Atlantic ACE is about 145. Tropical Storm Nadine and Hurricane Oscar have petered out, and nothing is brewing. I don't see an Atlantic ACE of greater than 160 in the offing, let alone well into the 200s. So while the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been "above average", it has not been "very active", and certainly not hyperactive.

It appears to me that the seasonal forecasters were more than a bit off.

* Is this an accurate assessment?
* If this is not an accurate assessment, how much variance should we expect from those early and midseason forecasts and late season / post season reality?
* If this is an accurate assessment, what went wrong with those preseason and midseason forecasts?

**Tags:** tropical-cyclone, seasons, atlantic

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: Some sites are predicting that something tropical might be brewing at the end of October or start of November. Whatever that is, I do not expect that to be anywhere close to the 15 ACE points needed to raise this season to the "very active" level, let alone 60+ points needed to raise this season to the hyperactive level. That said, Colorado State University will release their end of season post mortem on November 26. It might be best to put this question on hold until then.  
> **username_0**: People are already whitewashing the preseason predictions. I do not buy it. Something did go wrong. Something always goes wrong with long term forecasts. The Farmer's Almanac is an obvious target for being no better than a coin flip. My question is whether predictions from CSU, NOAA, and others are no better than a coin flip.  
> **username_0**: @mmt10 It wasn't just NOAA. Colorado State University, Arizona State University, North Carolina State University, the UK Tropical Storm Risk, the French Météo-France, the Mexican Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, and several others all predicted a very active to a hyperactive to a beyond hyperactive hurricane season. We haven't seen that. It will take four Oscars just to hit the lower limit of "very active". There is something that might form in the southwest Caribbean, but I suspect it too will fizzle. It's just too late in the season for that to win an Oscar (or a Patty, in this case).  
> **username_0**: @mmt10 I live south of Houston, where the season is almost certainly over for us. OTOH, I do know the season is not over yet. Regarding those two storms, even in extremely mild years all it takes is one nasty storm to make the season bad for some area. A weird feature for this season was the huge fraction of tropical storms that eventually turned into hurricanes. Nobody predicted that; nobody would have ever predicted that. I'm waiting for a post mortem before I accept an answer, and that won't come out until late November.  
> **username_0**: @user35846 When adjusted for inflation, the US economic costs of Katrina and Harvey were about \$125 billion each. Helene and Milton are lower, \$88 and \$85 billion. Helene and Milton were nasty, but not as nasty as were Katrina or Harvey.  
> **username_0**: @user35846 I'm holding off on answering, for now, but I remain of the opinion that the hurricane season forecasters messed up. The Atlantic ACE has grown to about 158, which is just shy of "active". The number might well cross the 160 boundary thanks to Rafael, but the initial forecasts were for an ACE of 240 -- 2005 level. That most certainly is not going to happen. I suspect the key was that prior to the start of the season there was an expectation of a very strong La Nina. That just didn't happen. The expected 2024 La Nina fizzled.  
> **username_0**: The Atlantic ACE is now at 159.8, which is just above the 159.6 threshold that qualifies it as an "extremely active" season. Rafael has fizzled. There is no way it is going to come even close to the 240 level predicted by many organizations prior to the season.  

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## 0 answers

