<p>I am looking for a dataset of ensemble forecasts and the associated true observed values. For example, a dataset containing <span class="math-container">$n$</span> ensemble forecasts of the temperature in 24 hours and the observed temperature 24 hours later. The <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets" rel="nofollow noreferrer">ECMWF datasets</a> look promising, but as a mathematician, I am not familiar with the terminology. Clicking on a dataset, <a href="https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/cera-sat-enda/levtype=sfc/type=an/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this page</a> for example, shows that "Analysis" and "Forecast" data is available. Are either of these the ensemble members or the observations? Downloading the data hasn't helped either.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-04-03T16:28:14.230Z
@gansub You're right, I should have been more clear. Hopefully fixed now.
Hasnep
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-04-04T09:41:35.173Z
Would be useful to know how you're going to use these data.  As the question gansub linked to suggests, there are subtleties and gotchas in comparing these things and there may be better routes to your goal.
Deditos
<models><open-data><data-analysis>
Do any of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts have the associated true values?
Hasnep
# Do any of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts have the associated true values?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2019-04-03)

I am looking for a dataset of ensemble forecasts and the associated true observed values. For example, a dataset containing $n$ ensemble forecasts of the temperature in 24 hours and the observed temperature 24 hours later. The [ECMWF datasets](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets) look promising, but as a mathematician, I am not familiar with the terminology. Clicking on a dataset, [this page](https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/cera-sat-enda/levtype=sfc/type=an/) for example, shows that "Analysis" and "Forecast" data is available. Are either of these the ensemble members or the observations? Downloading the data hasn't helped either.

**Tags:** models, open-data, data-analysis

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: @gansub You're right, I should have been more clear. Hopefully fixed now.  
> **username_1**: Would be useful to know how you're going to use these data.  As the question gansub linked to suggests, there are subtleties and gotchas in comparing these things and there may be better routes to your goal.  

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## 0 answers

