<p>One issue here is whether El Niño (ENSO) is chaotic in nature. There is a fair amount of literature on the chaotic and deterministic nature of ENSO (e.g., <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/content/264/5155/72.abstract" rel="noreferrer">https://www.sciencemag.org/content/264/5155/72.abstract</a>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/97GL53639/full" rel="noreferrer">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/97GL53639/full</a>). Under the chaotic assumption, the posted question might not have a clear answer.</p>

<p>Then there is the fact that ENSO affects the atmospheric-oceanic energy budget. If too much energy is available, then El Niño might happen, but whether it is stronger is unclear. </p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-04-24T18:47:02.920Z
2014-04-24T18:47:02.920Z
arkaia
<p>E.g. see <a href="http://www.wired.com/2014/04/el-nino-effects/" rel="nofollow">http://www.wired.com/2014/04/el-nino-effects/</a>.</p>

<p>I'm thinking.. In case a major El Niño event didn't happen this year, then would it only make it more likely that a stronger El Niño would happen in a subsequent year?</p>

<atmosphere><enso>
Are El Niños stronger when there is a longer gap from the last El Niño?
InquilineKea
# Are El Niños stronger when there is a longer gap from the last El Niño?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2014-04-16)

E.g. see <http://www.wired.com/2014/04/el-nino-effects/>.

I'm thinking.. In case a major El Niño event didn't happen this year, then would it only make it more likely that a stronger El Niño would happen in a subsequent year?

**Tags:** atmosphere, enso


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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2014-04-24. Score: 5

One issue here is whether El Niño (ENSO) is chaotic in nature. There is a fair amount of literature on the chaotic and deterministic nature of ENSO (e.g., <https://www.sciencemag.org/content/264/5155/72.abstract>, <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/97GL53639/full>). Under the chaotic assumption, the posted question might not have a clear answer.

Then there is the fact that ENSO affects the atmospheric-oceanic energy budget. If too much energy is available, then El Niño might happen, but whether it is stronger is unclear.


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