<p>The paths of cyclones in the Australian Basin are no more erratic than cyclones, hurricanes or typhoons elsewhere. Conditions at the time of a cyclone's existence determine its path.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622813001975" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Sinuosity of Cyclone Tracks - SW Indian Ocean</a> states that over the past three decades the sinuosity of cyclone paths in the SW Indian Ocean has a high degree of variability. It appears that in that part of the world, cyclones can make more abrupt changes in their paths during January than in other months of the cyclone season. It also goes on the state there are marked periods when the paths of cyclones are less sinuous and other periods when they are more sinuous when compared with long term averages.</p>

<p>The following picture, from Wikipedia, shows the paths of the cyclone tracks for the 1988-89 south west Indian Ocean cyclone season. A number of the paths are erratic.</p>

<p><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/feKTJ.jpg" alt="SW Indian Ocean Cyclones 1988-89"></p>

<p>Paths of other cyclones can be seen on the following Wikipedia pages:</p>

<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988%E2%80%9389_South-West_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season" rel="nofollow noreferrer">1988-89 SW Indian Ocean Cyclone Season</a></p>

<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988%E2%80%9389_Australian_region_cyclone_season" rel="nofollow noreferrer">1988-89 Australian Cyclone Season</a></p>

<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_South-West_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season" rel="nofollow noreferrer">2013-2014 SW Indian Ocean Cyclone Season</a></p>

<p><a href="http://www.thefullwiki.org/1985%E2%80%9390_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_seasons" rel="nofollow noreferrer">1985-1990 Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Paths</a></p>

<p><a href="http://www.wired.com/2013/08/hurricane-tracks/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Paths of the World Hurricanes, Cyclones &amp; Typhoons for the past 170 Years</a></p>

<p><a href="http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/?redirect=301ocm" rel="nofollow noreferrer">NOAA Site displaying the paths of past cyclones, hurricanes &amp; typhoons</a></p>

<p><a href="http://www.cyclocane.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Tracking paths for current cyclones in the Indian Ocean &amp; Western Pacific</a></p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-02-23T09:41:03.730Z
"The paths of cyclones in the Australian Basin are no more erratic than cyclones, hurricanes or typhoons elsewhere." The quote in the question, cited to a reliable source, says the exact opposite. What is the basis for your assertion?
David Richerby
CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-02-23T02:19:27.220Z
2015-02-23T02:19:27.220Z
Fred
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/" rel="noreferrer">Australia Bureau of Meterology</a>:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Research has shown that cyclones in the Australian region exhibit more
  erratic paths than cyclones in other parts of the world. A tropical
  cyclone can last for a few days or up to two or three weeks. Movement
  in any direction is possible including sharp turns and even loops.</p>
</blockquote>

<p><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/VwoOf.png" alt="enter image description here"></p>

<p>Why do they change directions so radically?  Does this occur in other parts of the world or are North American hurricanes the anomaly in their typically smooth tracks?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-01-16T18:34:09.090Z
It appears that most of your storms shown either continue westward movement (as waves in the tropical easterlies do worldwide) [also includes WSW/SW, as stronger storms are shifted by the Beta Effect), or recurve to southwest, south, and evenutally southeast/east (as would be typical in the SH when a midlatitude trough picks up a system).  This pickup will happen at varying longitudes, but increase as storms tend away from the equator, which seems to match your image.  So peering further to see individual tracks through the blob, they don't seem particularly, abnormally erratic really.
JeopardyTempest
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-01-16T18:42:58.723Z
If there truly is more erraticness, it should be to do with the features that steer cyclones. So basically I'd suggest you'd have either more complexity in the flow in that area of the tropics (due to the numerous islands and their diurnal oscillations??)... or more varying midlatitude systems (different sizes and a wider spread of system maturities, perhaps due to less continental land interaction??) than we'd see in the NH.
JeopardyTempest
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-01-16T18:44:12.217Z
While both theories seem slightly feasible, though I haven't got the intimate familiarity with the SH that one would need to be certain, I haven't been given any hints through the years that either of those situations is physically realized down there.
JeopardyTempest
CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-02-23T03:43:59.743Z
Isn't everything in Australia inherently more dangerous?
corsiKa
CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-02-23T07:39:36.453Z
If you throw a bunch of leaves in the same location in a flowing stream will they all follow the same path? No, some become stuck along the edges, while others flow seemingly against the current embedded in eddies. Some will sink to the bottom and others will sail by swiftly in a straight line. I think it is subjective to say the Australian region exhibits more erratic than other parts of the world.
Isopycnal Oscillation
CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-02-23T09:39:58.493Z
@IsopycnalOscillation Why do you think it's subjective? It seems perfectly possible to quantify erraticness of a set of paths, e.g., by looking at statistical properties of their deviations from a uniform curve. Are you suggesting that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is just making stuff up?
David Richerby
CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-02-23T19:46:30.140Z
@DavidRicherby There are a myriad of small and large scale factors that can influence the evolution of a cyclone. At the same time, records of cyclone tracks for the entire world have only been kept for a half a decade. I am not saying there are no mathematical tools that can be used to extract useful information and even a measure of erraticness. I am just not convinced that one can say that the degree of variability is larger in the Australian Basin than in other places of the world with a high degree of confidence. I would be interested in taking a look at what research they are citing.
Isopycnal Oscillation
CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-02-24T02:15:59.720Z
I haven't done any quantitative analysis but looking at the tracks for cyclones off NE Australia and Caribbean/North Atlantic hurricanes, it seems clear to me that the Australian storms frequently do take much more erratic tracks. And seem much less predictable.
haresfur
<meteorology><tropical-cyclone>
Why do tropical cyclones around Australia have erratic paths?
haresfur
# Why do tropical cyclones around Australia have erratic paths?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2015-02-22)

According to the [Australia Bureau of Meterology](http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/):

> Research has shown that cyclones in the Australian region exhibit more
> erratic paths than cyclones in other parts of the world. A tropical
> cyclone can last for a few days or up to two or three weeks. Movement
> in any direction is possible including sharp turns and even loops.

![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/VwoOf.png)

Why do they change directions so radically? Does this occur in other parts of the world or are North American hurricanes the anomaly in their typically smooth tracks?

**Tags:** meteorology, tropical-cyclone

> **Comments:**
> **username_2**: Isn't everything in Australia inherently more dangerous?  
> **username_3**: If you throw a bunch of leaves in the same location in a flowing stream will they all follow the same path? No, some become stuck along the edges, while others flow seemingly against the current embedded in eddies. Some will sink to the bottom and others will sail by swiftly in a straight line. I think it is subjective to say the Australian region exhibits more erratic than other parts of the world.  
> **username_4**: @username_3 Why do you think it's subjective? It seems perfectly possible to quantify erraticness of a set of paths, e.g., by looking at statistical properties of their deviations from a uniform curve. Are you suggesting that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is just making stuff up?  
> **username_3**: @username_4 There are a myriad of small and large scale factors that can influence the evolution of a cyclone. At the same time, records of cyclone tracks for the entire world have only been kept for a half a decade. I am not saying there are no mathematical tools that can be used to extract useful information and even a measure of erraticness. I am just not convinced that one can say that the degree of variability is larger in the Australian Basin than in other places of the world with a high degree of confidence. I would be interested in taking a look at what research they are citing.  
> **username_0**: I haven't done any quantitative analysis but looking at the tracks for cyclones off NE Australia and Caribbean/North Atlantic hurricanes, it seems clear to me that the Australian storms frequently do take much more erratic tracks. And seem much less predictable.  
> **username_1**: It appears that most of your storms shown either continue westward movement (as waves in the tropical easterlies do worldwide) [also includes WSW/SW, as stronger storms are shifted by the Beta Effect), or recurve to southwest, south, and evenutally southeast/east (as would be typical in the SH when a midlatitude trough picks up a system).  This pickup will happen at varying longitudes, but increase as storms tend away from the equator, which seems to match your image.  So peering further to see individual tracks through the blob, they don't seem particularly, abnormally erratic really.  
> **username_1**: If there truly is more erraticness, it should be to do with the features that steer cyclones. So basically I'd suggest you'd have either more complexity in the flow in that area of the tropics (due to the numerous islands and their diurnal oscillations??)... or more varying midlatitude systems (different sizes and a wider spread of system maturities, perhaps due to less continental land interaction??) than we'd see in the NH.  
> **username_1**: While both theories seem slightly feasible, though I haven't got the intimate familiarity with the SH that one would need to be certain, I haven't been given any hints through the years that either of those situations is physically realized down there.  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_5 on 2015-02-23. Score: 7

The paths of cyclones in the Australian Basin are no more erratic than cyclones, hurricanes or typhoons elsewhere. Conditions at the time of a cyclone's existence determine its path.

[Sinuosity of Cyclone Tracks - SW Indian Ocean](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622813001975) states that over the past three decades the sinuosity of cyclone paths in the SW Indian Ocean has a high degree of variability. It appears that in that part of the world, cyclones can make more abrupt changes in their paths during January than in other months of the cyclone season. It also goes on the state there are marked periods when the paths of cyclones are less sinuous and other periods when they are more sinuous when compared with long term averages.

The following picture, from Wikipedia, shows the paths of the cyclone tracks for the 1988-89 south west Indian Ocean cyclone season. A number of the paths are erratic.

![SW Indian Ocean Cyclones 1988-89](https://i.sstatic.net/feKTJ.jpg)

Paths of other cyclones can be seen on the following Wikipedia pages:

[1988-89 SW Indian Ocean Cyclone Season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988%E2%80%9389_South-West_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season)

[1988-89 Australian Cyclone Season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988%E2%80%9389_Australian_region_cyclone_season)

[2013-2014 SW Indian Ocean Cyclone Season](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_South-West_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season)

[1985-1990 Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Paths](http://www.thefullwiki.org/1985%E2%80%9390_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_seasons)

[Paths of the World Hurricanes, Cyclones & Typhoons for the past 170 Years](http://www.wired.com/2013/08/hurricane-tracks/)

[NOAA Site displaying the paths of past cyclones, hurricanes & typhoons](http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/?redirect=301ocm)

[Tracking paths for current cyclones in the Indian Ocean & Western Pacific](http://www.cyclocane.com/)

> **Comments:**
> **username_4**: "The paths of cyclones in the Australian Basin are no more erratic than cyclones, hurricanes or typhoons elsewhere." The quote in the question, cited to a reliable source, says the exact opposite. What is the basis for your assertion?  

---

