<p>I'm wondering how good the climate models of the recent past have been at predicting the current climate.</p>

<p>Notably, I've heard quite a few times that the temperature was increasing faster than the models projections. Is this the case? </p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-02-19T12:34:55.220Z
This article addresses the question, although I don't know how valid it is: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming
Communisty
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-02-19T14:25:30.797Z
Related: [How good were climate models of the 1990s at predicting the global temperature trends of the 2000s/2010s?](https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2162/how-good-were-climate-models-of-the-1990s-at-predicting-the-global-temperature-t/2170)
Pont
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-02-20T03:19:09.967Z
Climate models are run in an ensemble with multiple scenarios.  So you should look at the different scenarios to clarify your question. RCP 8.5 may be the one you're interested in.
f.thorpe
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-02-21T08:07:22.850Z
This question is much broader than the suggested duplicate candidate. It ask for past climate models in general in correlation to observations now.
Communisty
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-02-22T06:37:22.837Z
Define "recent past" more precisely and this might become answerable.
userLTK
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-02-22T06:43:22.810Z
Also, perhaps post an article or two that you read.  There are a number of articles out that have said basically what you said that turn up with a google search, but there's too much range in this question and too many models to compare to.
userLTK
CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-02-22T20:25:17.823Z
@userLTK Agreed. This might become a worthwhile and answerable question if it focused on one or two specific, sourced claims.
Pont
<climate-change><climate-models>
How well do past climate models stick to current observations?
Brann
# How well do past climate models stick to current observations?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2018-02-19)

I'm wondering how good the climate models of the recent past have been at predicting the current climate.

Notably, I've heard quite a few times that the temperature was increasing faster than the models projections. Is this the case?

**Tags:** climate-change, climate-models

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: This article addresses the question, although I don't know how valid it is: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming  
> **username_2**: Related: [How good were climate models of the 1990s at predicting the global temperature trends of the 2000s/2010s?](https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2162/how-good-were-climate-models-of-the-1990s-at-predicting-the-global-temperature-t/2170)  
> **username_3**: Climate models are run in an ensemble with multiple scenarios.  So you should look at the different scenarios to clarify your question. RCP 8.5 may be the one you're interested in.  
> **username_1**: This question is much broader than the suggested duplicate candidate. It ask for past climate models in general in correlation to observations now.  
> **username_4**: Define "recent past" more precisely and this might become answerable.  
> **username_4**: Also, perhaps post an article or two that you read.  There are a number of articles out that have said basically what you said that turn up with a google search, but there's too much range in this question and too many models to compare to.  
> **username_2**: @username_4 Agreed. This might become a worthwhile and answerable question if it focused on one or two specific, sourced claims.  

---

## 0 answers

