<p>Two questions really.</p>
<p>The Quaternary glaciation has been ongoing for 2.58 million years, as far as I know mainly meant to be caused by the Panama Isthmus separating the Pacific and Atlantic and also various Milankovitch forcings. Thus began the cycle of glacial and interglacial.</p>
<p>Assuming anthropogenic global warming does not abort this entirely and force a transition back to permanent hothouse, is there any educated guess we can make at how much time the glaciation has left before the cycle ends and the northern ice sheets melt permanently? The only figure I've seen was on the order of ten million years, and it wasn't by anyone with any qualifications.</p>
<p>Also - the cycle length of glacial-interglacial switched from 41kyr to 100kyr 1.25 million years ago. As the cycles continue (ignoring AGW for a moment) could this change happen again, the other way? Do we have a good enough grasp on the factors involved to give a date for any such future transition?</p>

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2024-11-04T02:38:01.717Z
This "question" asks two rather distinct questions; questions should ask one question. Unfortunately, both questions asked are currently unanswerable.  Scientists disagree to this day on the cause of the Mid Pleistocene Transition. When/if the current 100 ka cycle will revert to a 41 ka cycle: who knows? Regarding the end of the Quartenary: That too is another who knows?
David Hammen
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2024-11-04T02:39:14.447Z
I’m voting to close this question because both questions raised in this question are currently unanswerable, and will remain unanswerable for a long, long time.
David Hammen
<paleoclimatology><ice-age><glaciation>
When will the Quaternary Glaciation end? Will the 100kyr glacial cycle switch back to 41kyr?
TheRedSaurian
# When will the Quaternary Glaciation end? Will the 100kyr glacial cycle switch back to 41kyr?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2024-11-02)

Two questions really.

The Quaternary glaciation has been ongoing for 2.58 million years, as far as I know mainly meant to be caused by the Panama Isthmus separating the Pacific and Atlantic and also various Milankovitch forcings. Thus began the cycle of glacial and interglacial.

Assuming anthropogenic global warming does not abort this entirely and force a transition back to permanent hothouse, is there any educated guess we can make at how much time the glaciation has left before the cycle ends and the northern ice sheets melt permanently? The only figure I've seen was on the order of ten million years, and it wasn't by anyone with any qualifications.

Also - the cycle length of glacial-interglacial switched from 41kyr to 100kyr 1.25 million years ago. As the cycles continue (ignoring AGW for a moment) could this change happen again, the other way? Do we have a good enough grasp on the factors involved to give a date for any such future transition?

**Tags:** paleoclimatology, ice-age, glaciation

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: This "question" asks two rather distinct questions; questions should ask one question. Unfortunately, both questions asked are currently unanswerable.  Scientists disagree to this day on the cause of the Mid Pleistocene Transition. When/if the current 100 ka cycle will revert to a 41 ka cycle: who knows? Regarding the end of the Quartenary: That too is another who knows?  
> **username_1**: I’m voting to close this question because both questions raised in this question are currently unanswerable, and will remain unanswerable for a long, long time.  

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