<p>As the name suggests it is a region of <em>uncertainty</em>.</p>
<p>There are many uncertainties when modeling and predicting weather systems.</p>
<p>When meteorologists model the path of a cyclone/typhoon/hurricane they never know for certain where a cyclone will actually end up. At any point along its path a local variation may cause it speed up, slow down, rotate at a slightly different rate or slightly change its path, left or right.</p>
<p>Meteorologists run several models for such cyclone systems on computers. Each uses either a different algorithm and/or different weather parameters. The results of all the models are then used to determine a region where the cyclone is <em>likely</em> to be in with a given time frame.</p>
<p>The greatest <em>certainty</em> is closest to the cyclone. The further away the projected path is from a cyclone the greater is the <strong>un</strong>certainty. This results in a larger spread of possible locations where the cyclone could eventually be. When drawn on a map this region looks like a cone.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-05-16T18:23:11.383Z
Perhaps a better way to say it: The further forward in time the forecast is, the greater is the uncertainty.
David Hammen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-05-16T10:46:34.890Z
2021-05-16T10:46:34.890Z
Fred
<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/7BLho.png" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/7BLho.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/EKKEB.png%3Cbr%3E" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/EKKEB.png%3Cbr%3E" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p>Whenever I look up the track of a cyclone on the map, I always notice that the cone of uncertainty bulges as it moves towards land/ target. I have inserted two images to show you what I mean, you could look up any other image but its always the same. Is there any specific reason for this phenomenon?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-05-16T08:07:03.627Z
Please edit the question to reduce the image size, if possible. I'm not sure how to do that.
Ambica Govind
<meteorology><cyclone>
Cone of uncertainty in cyclones
Ambica Govind
# Cone of uncertainty in cyclones

(Asked by: username_0 on 2021-05-16)

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/7BLho.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/7BLho.png)

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/EKKEB.png%3Cbr%3E)](https://i.sstatic.net/EKKEB.png%3Cbr%3E)

Whenever I look up the track of a cyclone on the map, I always notice that the cone of uncertainty bulges as it moves towards land/ target. I have inserted two images to show you what I mean, you could look up any other image but its always the same. Is there any specific reason for this phenomenon?

**Tags:** meteorology, cyclone

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: Please edit the question to reduce the image size, if possible. I'm not sure how to do that.  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2021-05-16. Score: 2

As the name suggests it is a region of *uncertainty*.

There are many uncertainties when modeling and predicting weather systems.

When meteorologists model the path of a cyclone/typhoon/hurricane they never know for certain where a cyclone will actually end up. At any point along its path a local variation may cause it speed up, slow down, rotate at a slightly different rate or slightly change its path, left or right.

Meteorologists run several models for such cyclone systems on computers. Each uses either a different algorithm and/or different weather parameters. The results of all the models are then used to determine a region where the cyclone is *likely* to be in with a given time frame.

The greatest *certainty* is closest to the cyclone. The further away the projected path is from a cyclone the greater is the **un**certainty. This results in a larger spread of possible locations where the cyclone could eventually be. When drawn on a map this region looks like a cone.

> **Comments:**
> **username_2**: Perhaps a better way to say it: The further forward in time the forecast is, the greater is the uncertainty.  

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