<p>Milankovich cycles are steady predictors, so sometime in the next 24-50 thousand years. But &quot;Glaciation&quot; is a broad terms, glaciers take long time to accumulate, but they accumulate, EVEN NOW. 100 years is simply too short a time frame to judge circumstances for long term climate trends. We just emerged from the little ice age, during which there were glaciers, that receded by the 1880's</p>

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2021-08-24T08:58:12.510Z
Would the atmospheric carbon dioxide of today move to the lithosphere in that time scale?
Lehs
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-08-26T09:16:16.657Z
We emitted a few million years worth of buried CO2 back into the atmosphere. MOST of the planets CO2 was not absorbed by photosynthesis but by geologic progeny (rocks) as Carbonates, that process has slowed alot since then. Returning atmospheric conditions back to pre-industrial levels, not that I would support it (285 ppm) would take well over 1000 years or more.
LazyReader
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-08-24T05:01:19.567Z
2021-08-24T05:01:19.567Z
LazyReader
<p>Suppose that the IPCC's best estimate of climate sensitivity (3 K) is relevant and that the Keeling curve will increase as now, with a certain procent more emission next year than previous year, into year 2100, when would the average temperature earliest become low enought for a new period of glaciation, due to the Milankovitch cycles?</p>
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2021-08-26T20:13:01.920Z
What do you mean by "worse case"? Which is worse, hundreds of years from now (not likely), many tens of thousands of years from now, or never?
David Hammen
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2021-08-29T12:05:14.827Z
@DavidHammen - I mean how long the pause will be because of AGW now and in the future.
Lehs
<climate-change><climatology><glaciation>
When would the next glaciation appear? Worst case
Lehs
# When would the next glaciation appear? Worst case

(Asked by: username_0 on 2021-08-24)

Suppose that the IPCC's best estimate of climate sensitivity (3 K) is relevant and that the Keeling curve will increase as now, with a certain procent more emission next year than previous year, into year 2100, when would the average temperature earliest become low enought for a new period of glaciation, due to the Milankovitch cycles?

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/q8DMD.jpg)](https://i.sstatic.net/q8DMD.jpg)
[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/y13DG.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/y13DG.png)

**Tags:** climate-change, climatology, glaciation

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: What do you mean by "worse case"? Which is worse, hundreds of years from now (not likely), many tens of thousands of years from now, or never?  
> **username_0**: @username_1 - I mean how long the pause will be because of AGW now and in the future.  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2021-08-24. Score: 2 | Accepted answer

Milankovich cycles are steady predictors, so sometime in the next 24-50 thousand years. But "Glaciation" is a broad terms, glaciers take long time to accumulate, but they accumulate, EVEN NOW. 100 years is simply too short a time frame to judge circumstances for long term climate trends. We just emerged from the little ice age, during which there were glaciers, that receded by the 1880's

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: Would the atmospheric carbon dioxide of today move to the lithosphere in that time scale?  
> **username_2**: We emitted a few million years worth of buried CO2 back into the atmosphere. MOST of the planets CO2 was not absorbed by photosynthesis but by geologic progeny (rocks) as Carbonates, that process has slowed alot since then. Returning atmospheric conditions back to pre-industrial levels, not that I would support it (285 ppm) would take well over 1000 years or more.  

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