<p>I've been looking at a lot of charts of Arctic Sea Ice lately, wondering when it will be gone, and whether the more extreme predictions are credible.
When scientists come up with a chart that points to around 2040 for sea ice going, do their models include events like the Siberian heat wave ?
Could such a thing render 2040 estimates useless ?
Thanks.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-08-11T02:10:36.837Z
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0860-7 may be of interest.
Keith McClary
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-08-11T16:17:54.497Z
thanks but, meh, paywall.
Jimmy Widdle
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-08-11T21:22:53.570Z
For me it says: "You have full access to this article via FAO Food & Agriculture Organization"
[Download PDF](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0860-7.pdf)
Keith McClary
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-08-12T09:26:26.433Z
@KeithMcClary Looks like it's seeing an institutional login for you - the names are sometimes odd/wrong though.  Nature usually has non-paywall readcube links at the bottom of articles for sharing: https://rdcu.be/b6dFF
Deditos
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-08-12T15:16:35.653Z
@Deditos Strange, I don't get access when I use another browser,  but I can download it on [Researchgate](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343298299_Past_perspectives_on_the_present_era_of_abrupt_Arctic_climate_change).
Keith McClary
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-08-12T22:08:49.230Z
No it still goes to paywall. Would be nice to my Athens membership back.
Jimmy Widdle
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-08-12T22:09:17.053Z
Anyway - Siberian heat waves in the models ?
Jimmy Widdle
<climate-change><arctic><sea-ice>
Are events like the Siberian heat wave factored into models of sea ice decline?
Jimmy Widdle
# Are events like the Siberian heat wave factored into models of sea ice decline?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2020-08-10)

I've been looking at a lot of charts of Arctic Sea Ice lately, wondering when it will be gone, and whether the more extreme predictions are credible.
When scientists come up with a chart that points to around 2040 for sea ice going, do their models include events like the Siberian heat wave ?
Could such a thing render 2040 estimates useless ?
Thanks.

**Tags:** climate-change, arctic, sea-ice

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0860-7 may be of interest.  
> **username_0**: thanks but, meh, paywall.  
> **username_1**: For me it says: "You have full access to this article via FAO Food & Agriculture Organization" [Download PDF](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0860-7.pdf)  
> **username_2**: @username_1 Looks like it's seeing an institutional login for you - the names are sometimes odd/wrong though.  Nature usually has non-paywall readcube links at the bottom of articles for sharing: https://rdcu.be/b6dFF  
> **username_1**: @username_2 Strange, I don't get access when I use another browser,  but I can download it on [Researchgate](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343298299_Past_perspectives_on_the_present_era_of_abrupt_Arctic_climate_change).  
> **username_0**: No it still goes to paywall. Would be nice to my Athens membership back.  
> **username_0**: Anyway - Siberian heat waves in the models ?  

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## 0 answers

