<p><b>EDIT 6/13/2020</b>: Actual Jan average from same website was 50.3 °F, which is even above my one-sigma bound, so I failed badly.  What did I miss now that we have hindsight?</p>

<hr>

<p>On Nov 1, I looked at the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dmotemp" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Dallas monthly weather averages</a> (pasted below) and tried to predict the average temperature for Jan 2020.  It's hard to see any trend, so I would simply predict 46.2 +/- 3.5 °F.</p>

<p>What else should I have measured to predict this significantly better?
I was thinking about looking at solar irradiance data (with sunspot solar cycles), sea currents, or sea temperatures...what data would improve my prediction by more than 1°F?</p>

<p>I'm hoping for an answer like, "Well, if you go to website X, their measurement of Y indicates that temperatures will likely deviate by Z" with perhaps some science showing that this is a good way to predict long-term weather.</p>

<pre><code>Year  Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec   Total
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2019  45.8  50.2  55.0  66.0  73.4  79.9  84.6  87.4  85.5  65.5       
2018  45.8  51.1  63.3  61.6  79.0  85.7  88.8  85.2  78.1  66.2  52.5  48.4  67.1
2017  51.2  60.6  65.7  69.3  75.4  82.5  86.6  84.4  80.6  69.6  62.4  49.7  69.8
2016  47.0  55.2  61.2  68.1  72.5  84.0  87.4  85.8  81.5  74.1  63.5  49.7  69.2
2015  44.5  45.7  56.1  65.8  70.9  82.1  87.1  87.3  82.7  71.2  58.7  53.7  67.2
2014  45.3  47.0  55.1  66.3  74.4  82.4  83.8  86.2  80.3  71.6  51.5  50.1  66.2
2013  49.1  52.0  56.4  63.0  72.3  82.6  84.5  87.1  82.4  68.2  53.5  43.1  66.2
2012  50.4  52.5  64.3  70.3  77.9  84.3  87.7  86.5  80.0  67.0  59.7  51.2  69.3
2011  42.8  49.5  61.3  70.8  72.8  86.8  91.4  93.4  80.0  68.2  57.9  47.6  68.5
2010  44.3  41.7  55.8  66.7  76.9  86.5  85.9  89.8  79.8  68.8  58.5  49.3  67.0
2009  48.1  55.8  58.9  64.8  73.3  83.8  86.6  85.3  76.2  62.7  59.5  42.7  66.5
2008  46.9  54.0  61.0  66.5  77.0  86.5  89.0  86.7  78.5  69.6  59.7  49.0  68.7
2007  42.3  49.4  63.9  62.4  74.6  81.4  83.8  87.8  81.6  72.1  61.3  49.8  67.5
2006  55.1  49.4  62.2  72.0  78.0  83.7  87.7  89.8  77.6  68.1  57.5  50.0  69.3
2005  49.5  52.6  56.7  65.5  73.5  83.6  85.1  86.8  83.7  68.8  60.8  48.1  67.9
2004  48.5  45.8  61.8  66.2  74.4  79.4  83.5  81.5  78.4  72.1  57.1  48.9  66.5
2003  43.7  45.6  56.2  66.9  75.5  79.0  86.3  86.7  74.5  68.7  59.4  49.6  66.0
2002  47.6  47.0  54.8  68.4  72.0  80.1  83.2  84.7  79.6  64.9  53.8  47.7  65.3
2001  42.7  50.2  51.8  67.8  74.2  80.3  86.7  84.9  74.7  65.0  59.7  49.5  65.6
2000  50.6  57.3  61.0  65.3  76.6  80.7  87.3  90.2  80.4  69.7  49.8  39.4  67.4
1999  48.6  55.5  56.4  67.9  73.8  82.1  86.1  90.2  79.0  69.2  62.9  51.5  68.6
1998  48.4  51.1  54.9  63.8  78.5  85.5  91.6  87.8  83.6  69.5  57.6  47.0  68.3
1997  44.0  49.5  58.3  60.4  70.1  78.8  84.9  83.1  80.2  67.2  52.1  45.6  64.5
1996  43.1  52.1  53.3  64.2  79.7  82.5  86.1  82.5  74.5  66.9  54.9  49.2  65.8
1995  48.1  52.5  56.9  64.2  73.2  79.9  85.5  85.5  76.6  67.8  54.8  47.4  66.0
1994  45.7  48.6  59.0  65.9  71.5  84.1  83.9  84.0  76.3  67.3  57.9  49.0  66.1
1993  45.1  49.0  56.1  63.3  71.9  81.7  87.3  87.5  78.2  63.8  51.6  49.5  65.4
1992  46.9  54.4  59.0  66.0  71.1  79.4  84.3  80.2  77.7  69.5  52.7  49.9  65.9
1991  42.8  53.7  59.8  67.4  75.4  81.0  85.0  82.5  75.2  68.1  51.7  50.3  66.1
1990  51.8  53.9  57.7  64.0  73.4  84.0  82.5  84.6  80.0  66.4  59.8  44.0  66.8
1989  50.0  42.2  56.7  66.4  74.3  77.9  82.8  82.3  74.7  69.0  58.2  39.0  64.5
1988  42.2  47.1  56.0  64.5  72.8  80.4  85.3  87.9  79.2  65.7  58.1  49.1  65.7
1987  44.5  50.8  53.9  65.0  75.1  79.6  83.4  86.5  77.1  66.5  55.7  47.3  65.5
1986  48.8  51.2  60.2  67.2  71.5  80.8  86.4  83.4  80.2  65.7  52.4  46.1  66.2
1985  37.8  45.0  60.8  67.2  74.0  80.2  84.4  87.6  77.7  67.6  56.3  42.3  65.1
1984  39.3  50.9  56.3  63.7  73.7  82.5  85.5  85.8  76.1  67.0  54.6  52.6  65.7
1983  43.4  48.5  54.5  60.6  69.5  77.3  83.6  84.9  77.1  67.8  57.3  34.8  63.3
1982  44.6  44.5  59.8  62.5  72.5  79.2  84.6  86.7  78.1  67.0  55.6  49.2  65.4
1981  44.6  48.9  55.7  69.2  70.5  80.3  85.9  83.4  76.2  66.1  57.5  47.3  65.5
1980  45.5  46.6  54.2  63.1  75.0  87.0  92.0  88.5  80.3  65.4  54.9  49.4  66.8
</code></pre>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-11-13T07:23:53.830Z
The atmospheric temperature depends, basically, on: Incoming radiation (Sun mainly, which can be not me easy modeled), humidity (depends on atmosphere, so it can be [modeled](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/met.1641), altitude, biome and winds. Just with temperature values it is not possible to do this predits. If you can model all of it, then you will model it.
David García Bodego
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-11-13T18:02:54.213Z
@gansub: Because climate is not weather.
jamesqf
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-11-13T19:08:58.560Z
@BarryCarter I learned a lot from that website and it seems they mainly use sea currents and sea temperatures to get long-term forecasts, but that is not so useful for Dallas.  I'm still hoping for someone to go out on the limb here and answer with a forecast for Dallas!
bobuhito
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-11-14T00:18:05.210Z
I'm extremely skeptical that weather can be forecast with any usability at that range due to the uncertainties and errors that propagate and accumulate rapidly over time. Even the long-term climate outlook (i.e. generally warmer/colder, wetter/drier than average) is difficult and problematic. Anecdotally, I've tracked one of the major forecast corporations' very long-term predictions several times, and each time the quality rapidly degrades past ~10 days out, with cooling and warming trends becoming completely out of phase with reality - i.e., *worse* than just assuming the climatic average.
dplmmr
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-11-14T18:28:01.473Z
@gansub: Not really all that good beyond a week or so, really.  It's those darned butterflies in the Amazon, you know :-)  And a climate forecast won't tell you what the weather is going to be like.  E.g. looking at El Nino will give you some idea about the climate in California next winter, but it's not much use in deciding whether to plan a skiing trip for President's Day weekend next year.
jamesqf
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-06-13T17:57:40.703Z
@a_donda  Fine, you can give up, but the point of my question is that weather is deterministic.  I want to hear why Dallas had a hotter-than-expected January and I'm sure someone could explain it (maybe based on some water current) in hindsight.
bobuhito
<meteorology><temperature><weather-forecasting><united-states>
Predicting the weather in two months
bobuhito
# Predicting the weather in two months

(Asked by: username_0 on 2019-11-12)

**EDIT 6/13/2020**: Actual Jan average from same website was 50.3 °F, which is even above my one-sigma bound, so I failed badly. What did I miss now that we have hindsight?

---

On Nov 1, I looked at the [Dallas monthly weather averages](https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dmotemp) (pasted below) and tried to predict the average temperature for Jan 2020. It's hard to see any trend, so I would simply predict 46.2 +/- 3.5 °F.

What else should I have measured to predict this significantly better?
I was thinking about looking at solar irradiance data (with sunspot solar cycles), sea currents, or sea temperatures...what data would improve my prediction by more than 1°F?

I'm hoping for an answer like, "Well, if you go to website X, their measurement of Y indicates that temperatures will likely deviate by Z" with perhaps some science showing that this is a good way to predict long-term weather.

```
Year  Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec   Total
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2019  45.8  50.2  55.0  66.0  73.4  79.9  84.6  87.4  85.5  65.5       
2018  45.8  51.1  63.3  61.6  79.0  85.7  88.8  85.2  78.1  66.2  52.5  48.4  67.1
2017  51.2  60.6  65.7  69.3  75.4  82.5  86.6  84.4  80.6  69.6  62.4  49.7  69.8
2016  47.0  55.2  61.2  68.1  72.5  84.0  87.4  85.8  81.5  74.1  63.5  49.7  69.2
2015  44.5  45.7  56.1  65.8  70.9  82.1  87.1  87.3  82.7  71.2  58.7  53.7  67.2
2014  45.3  47.0  55.1  66.3  74.4  82.4  83.8  86.2  80.3  71.6  51.5  50.1  66.2
2013  49.1  52.0  56.4  63.0  72.3  82.6  84.5  87.1  82.4  68.2  53.5  43.1  66.2
2012  50.4  52.5  64.3  70.3  77.9  84.3  87.7  86.5  80.0  67.0  59.7  51.2  69.3
2011  42.8  49.5  61.3  70.8  72.8  86.8  91.4  93.4  80.0  68.2  57.9  47.6  68.5
2010  44.3  41.7  55.8  66.7  76.9  86.5  85.9  89.8  79.8  68.8  58.5  49.3  67.0
2009  48.1  55.8  58.9  64.8  73.3  83.8  86.6  85.3  76.2  62.7  59.5  42.7  66.5
2008  46.9  54.0  61.0  66.5  77.0  86.5  89.0  86.7  78.5  69.6  59.7  49.0  68.7
2007  42.3  49.4  63.9  62.4  74.6  81.4  83.8  87.8  81.6  72.1  61.3  49.8  67.5
2006  55.1  49.4  62.2  72.0  78.0  83.7  87.7  89.8  77.6  68.1  57.5  50.0  69.3
2005  49.5  52.6  56.7  65.5  73.5  83.6  85.1  86.8  83.7  68.8  60.8  48.1  67.9
2004  48.5  45.8  61.8  66.2  74.4  79.4  83.5  81.5  78.4  72.1  57.1  48.9  66.5
2003  43.7  45.6  56.2  66.9  75.5  79.0  86.3  86.7  74.5  68.7  59.4  49.6  66.0
2002  47.6  47.0  54.8  68.4  72.0  80.1  83.2  84.7  79.6  64.9  53.8  47.7  65.3
2001  42.7  50.2  51.8  67.8  74.2  80.3  86.7  84.9  74.7  65.0  59.7  49.5  65.6
2000  50.6  57.3  61.0  65.3  76.6  80.7  87.3  90.2  80.4  69.7  49.8  39.4  67.4
1999  48.6  55.5  56.4  67.9  73.8  82.1  86.1  90.2  79.0  69.2  62.9  51.5  68.6
1998  48.4  51.1  54.9  63.8  78.5  85.5  91.6  87.8  83.6  69.5  57.6  47.0  68.3
1997  44.0  49.5  58.3  60.4  70.1  78.8  84.9  83.1  80.2  67.2  52.1  45.6  64.5
1996  43.1  52.1  53.3  64.2  79.7  82.5  86.1  82.5  74.5  66.9  54.9  49.2  65.8
1995  48.1  52.5  56.9  64.2  73.2  79.9  85.5  85.5  76.6  67.8  54.8  47.4  66.0
1994  45.7  48.6  59.0  65.9  71.5  84.1  83.9  84.0  76.3  67.3  57.9  49.0  66.1
1993  45.1  49.0  56.1  63.3  71.9  81.7  87.3  87.5  78.2  63.8  51.6  49.5  65.4
1992  46.9  54.4  59.0  66.0  71.1  79.4  84.3  80.2  77.7  69.5  52.7  49.9  65.9
1991  42.8  53.7  59.8  67.4  75.4  81.0  85.0  82.5  75.2  68.1  51.7  50.3  66.1
1990  51.8  53.9  57.7  64.0  73.4  84.0  82.5  84.6  80.0  66.4  59.8  44.0  66.8
1989  50.0  42.2  56.7  66.4  74.3  77.9  82.8  82.3  74.7  69.0  58.2  39.0  64.5
1988  42.2  47.1  56.0  64.5  72.8  80.4  85.3  87.9  79.2  65.7  58.1  49.1  65.7
1987  44.5  50.8  53.9  65.0  75.1  79.6  83.4  86.5  77.1  66.5  55.7  47.3  65.5
1986  48.8  51.2  60.2  67.2  71.5  80.8  86.4  83.4  80.2  65.7  52.4  46.1  66.2
1985  37.8  45.0  60.8  67.2  74.0  80.2  84.4  87.6  77.7  67.6  56.3  42.3  65.1
1984  39.3  50.9  56.3  63.7  73.7  82.5  85.5  85.8  76.1  67.0  54.6  52.6  65.7
1983  43.4  48.5  54.5  60.6  69.5  77.3  83.6  84.9  77.1  67.8  57.3  34.8  63.3
1982  44.6  44.5  59.8  62.5  72.5  79.2  84.6  86.7  78.1  67.0  55.6  49.2  65.4
1981  44.6  48.9  55.7  69.2  70.5  80.3  85.9  83.4  76.2  66.1  57.5  47.3  65.5
1980  45.5  46.6  54.2  63.1  75.0  87.0  92.0  88.5  80.3  65.4  54.9  49.4  66.8

```

**Tags:** meteorology, temperature, weather-forecasting, united-states

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: The atmospheric temperature depends, basically, on: Incoming radiation (Sun mainly, which can be not me easy modeled), humidity (depends on atmosphere, so it can be [modeled](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/met.1641), altitude, biome and winds. Just with temperature values it is not possible to do this predits. If you can model all of it, then you will model it.  
> **username_2**: @gansub: Because climate is not weather.  
> **username_0**: @BarryCarter I learned a lot from that website and it seems they mainly use sea currents and sea temperatures to get long-term forecasts, but that is not so useful for Dallas.  I'm still hoping for someone to go out on the limb here and answer with a forecast for Dallas!  
> **username_3**: I'm extremely skeptical that weather can be forecast with any usability at that range due to the uncertainties and errors that propagate and accumulate rapidly over time. Even the long-term climate outlook (i.e. generally warmer/colder, wetter/drier than average) is difficult and problematic. Anecdotally, I've tracked one of the major forecast corporations' very long-term predictions several times, and each time the quality rapidly degrades past ~10 days out, with cooling and warming trends becoming completely out of phase with reality - i.e., *worse* than just assuming the climatic average.  
> **username_2**: @gansub: Not really all that good beyond a week or so, really.  It's those darned butterflies in the Amazon, you know :-)  And a climate forecast won't tell you what the weather is going to be like.  E.g. looking at El Nino will give you some idea about the climate in California next winter, but it's not much use in deciding whether to plan a skiing trip for President's Day weekend next year.  
> **username_0**: @a_donda  Fine, you can give up, but the point of my question is that weather is deterministic.  I want to hear why Dallas had a hotter-than-expected January and I'm sure someone could explain it (maybe based on some water current) in hindsight.  

---

## 0 answers

