<p>Tipping point events have occurred throughout earth's history and parts of the earth system are currently being monitored for signs of abrupt change. Past earth system tipping points include <em>The Great Oxygenation</em> which brought molecular oxygen (O<sub>2</sub>) into the atmosphere and <em>Snowball Earth</em> events where the earth's surface became ice-covered. Tipping points can occur on a planetary scale, as in the previous examples. These events can also occur on a regional  scale. For example, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a regional feature that is currently being monitored for signs of collapse.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-27T05:10:58.003Z
2020-04-27T05:10:58.003Z
xineleclerc
<p>There is probably more up to date information, but have a look at this</p>

<p><a href="https://www.clim-past.net/6/77/2010/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Livina et. al. Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr </a></p>

<p>for a study showing that abrupt glacial climate change may have been associated with multiple equilibria (and a method to detect transitions between them).</p>

<p>Maybe</p>

<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms6752" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Boulton et.al. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model</a></p>

<p>paper is of interest too.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-10-31T11:42:40.810Z
2020-04-27T08:15:24.450Z
2020-04-27T08:15:24.450Z
Lukas
<p><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/105/6/1786.full.pdf" rel="noreferrer">This article</a> gives a wonderful overview of tipping point theory, where a large system can be brought into a different state by a small perturbation.</p>

<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/UBaPi.jpg" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/UBaPi.jpg" alt="Bifurcation diagram"></a></p>

<p>Searching online I have found mostly articles on theoreticly based studies on tipping point theory and some speculating on the consequences that may occur due to global warming.</p>

<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/U3s8T.png" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/U3s8T.png" alt="Global warming tipping points"></a></p>

<p>I am wondering if these tipping point theories are still all theoretical or are there any historical examples that provide as a base for these anticipated changes? For example, area the transitions between Eras and Periods also caused by tipping points or are they more gradual changes of the system because they occur on a very large timescale?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-10-24T09:03:30.207Z
Out of interest: Do you have a link to the source of that second picture? (Maybe add it to the question). Especially because it says *Adapted from* and contains several *Tipped* flags, I wonder what the reasoning of the author of this picture for the *Tipped* is/are. [Google images finds the pictures in many locations]
Jan Doggen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-10-24T09:06:22.363Z
https://www.climateemergencyinstitute.com/tipping_pts.html
Bollehenk
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-10-24T09:16:33.953Z
That's not the source, neither is it in any of the references linked from there. The original *without* the annotations is [here](https://www.pik-potsdam.de/services/infodesk/tipping-elements/kippelemente). Well, I'll have to keep on digging.
Jan Doggen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-10-24T09:19:38.350Z
I guess it is not in any publication, maye the original image would have been more suitable indeed.
Bollehenk
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-10-24T09:21:35.623Z
For your question, yes. I'm interested in the person who put the *Tipped* on ;-) Nice question BTW
Jan Doggen
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-12-03T14:03:32.910Z
I'm enthusiastic about hearing an answer to this question too, but have a problem with the formulation: "are tipping point theories still theoretical" implies a very naive understanding of theory. Theory itself IS our understanding of physics, it may be incomplete however, and on various scales of complexity. But theory still represents the laws of physics to our best knowledge.
AtmosphericPrisonEscape
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-26T03:52:02.057Z
Are you looking for global scale or is smaller scale acceptable. it can be really hard to demonstrate a fast global change geologically just due to the disjointed sources of data. smaller scale examples include things like avalanche, glacial and rock dam breaching, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes. .
John
<climate-change><earth-system>
Tipping point theory, historical examples
Bollehenk
# Tipping point theory, historical examples

(Asked by: username_0 on 2018-10-24)

[This article](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/105/6/1786.full.pdf) gives a wonderful overview of tipping point theory, where a large system can be brought into a different state by a small perturbation.

[![Bifurcation diagram](https://i.sstatic.net/UBaPi.jpg)](https://i.sstatic.net/UBaPi.jpg)

Searching online I have found mostly articles on theoreticly based studies on tipping point theory and some speculating on the consequences that may occur due to global warming.

[![Global warming tipping points](https://i.sstatic.net/U3s8T.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/U3s8T.png)

I am wondering if these tipping point theories are still all theoretical or are there any historical examples that provide as a base for these anticipated changes? For example, area the transitions between Eras and Periods also caused by tipping points or are they more gradual changes of the system because they occur on a very large timescale?

**Tags:** climate-change, earth-system

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Out of interest: Do you have a link to the source of that second picture? (Maybe add it to the question). Especially because it says *Adapted from* and contains several *Tipped* flags, I wonder what the reasoning of the author of this picture for the *Tipped* is/are. [Google images finds the pictures in many locations]  
> **username_0**: https://www.climateemergencyinstitute.com/tipping_pts.html  
> **username_1**: That's not the source, neither is it in any of the references linked from there. The original *without* the annotations is [here](https://www.pik-potsdam.de/services/infodesk/tipping-elements/kippelemente). Well, I'll have to keep on digging.  
> **username_0**: I guess it is not in any publication, maye the original image would have been more suitable indeed.  
> **username_1**: For your question, yes. I'm interested in the person who put the *Tipped* on ;-) Nice question BTW  
> **username_2**: I'm enthusiastic about hearing an answer to this question too, but have a problem with the formulation: "are tipping point theories still theoretical" implies a very naive understanding of theory. Theory itself IS our understanding of physics, it may be incomplete however, and on various scales of complexity. But theory still represents the laws of physics to our best knowledge.  
> **username_3**: Are you looking for global scale or is smaller scale acceptable. it can be really hard to demonstrate a fast global change geologically just due to the disjointed sources of data. smaller scale examples include things like avalanche, glacial and rock dam breaching, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes. .  

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## 2 answers

### Answer by username_4 on 2020-04-27. Score: 1

Tipping point events have occurred throughout earth's history and parts of the earth system are currently being monitored for signs of abrupt change. Past earth system tipping points include *The Great Oxygenation* which brought molecular oxygen (O2) into the atmosphere and *Snowball Earth* events where the earth's surface became ice-covered. Tipping points can occur on a planetary scale, as in the previous examples. These events can also occur on a regional scale. For example, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a regional feature that is currently being monitored for signs of collapse.


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### Answer by username_5 on 2018-10-31. Score: 0

There is probably more up to date information, but have a look at this

[Livina et. al. Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr](https://www.clim-past.net/6/77/2010/)

for a study showing that abrupt glacial climate change may have been associated with multiple equilibria (and a method to detect transitions between them).

Maybe

[Boulton et.al. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms6752)

paper is of interest too.


---

