Are Professional Baseball Players Who are Promoted into the Major Leagues Better than Players Who Were Demoted into the Minor Leagues: A Logit Analysis
Today, statistical analysis can be used for a variety of different reasons. In sports, more particularly baseball, there is an increasing necessity to have better up to date analysis of players and their performance as they attempt to make it to the Major League. Athletes are constantly moving around within one or more organizations. Since they are moving around so often, clubs spend an ample amount of time determining whether or not it is for their benefit and betterment of the organization as a whole. The objective of this thesis is to utilize previous baseball statistics in StataSE to determine performance levels of players who played at the major league level. From these, regression-based performance models will be used to predict whether or not Major League Baseball organizations effectively and efficiently move players around from their farm systems to the big leagues. From this, teams will be able to see whether or not they in fact make the right decisions during the season. Several tasks were accomplished to achieve this outcome: 1. First, data was obtained from the Baseball-Reference statistics database and sorted in google sheets in order for me to perform analysis anywhere. 2. Next, all 1,354 players that entered the major leagues in the year 2016, were assessed as to whether or not they started in a given league and stayed, got promoted from the minor leagues to the majors, or demoted from the majors to the minor leagues. 3. Based off of prior baseball knowledge and offensive performance quantifications only, players' abilities were evaluated and only those who were called up or sent down were included in the overall analysis. 4. The statistical analysis software application, StataSE, was used to create a further analyze if any of the four major regression assumptions were violated. It was determined that logistic regression models would produce better results than that of a standard, linear OLS model. After testing multiple models, and slightly refining my hypothesis, the adjustments made developed a more accurate analysis of whether organizations were making an efficient move sending a player down to promote another player up. After producing the model, I decided to investigate at what level a player was deemed to be no longer able to perform at a Major League Baseball level.