Previewing the Fed Decision6/19/2013 8:30AM
Rolfe Winkler and David Wessel preview the Federal Reserve decision, and Louise Radnofsky looks at delays in health-care exchanges.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.
... the ... boarding welcome to the new sub I'm Rolfe Winkler the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve board wraps up today ... and investors are anxiously wondering if they'll get any sign that Denver neque company will stop the Pring prices anytime soon ... whatever Mr. Rene Kyi decides to do he has to do a better job communicating his intentions that he has of late ... that's David Wessel Sardinia Ms Lees Outlook column he joins us now from Washington David good morning ... morning okay so ... what do you expect to come ... from the Fed meeting for school ... well I had two o'clock this afternoon that Washington time will get a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee ... that may or may not be any different in the statement they gave ... at the beginning of March and will also get their new ... economic forecasts ... most analysts expect some tweaking in the forecast isn't weak in the wording ... but no great clarity on the big question ... what will it take for the Fed ... to begin to reduce the size of its monthly purchases of bonds has been buying eighty five billion dollars a month in Treasury and mortgage backed securities ... for the past several months he'll probably keep doing that ... well what will it take ... while they have to see in the economy for it to pare back those bond by ... the end they still gets ... a clue that Mr. Draghi's press conference which begins into third okay so at what they have said ... with respect in a you make this this distinction you're calm that with respect to ... the bond buying specifically now with interest rates ... even a little clear about that they'll take their cue from the unemployment rate dropping to six point five percent ... with the bond buying program you make the point that it's a little more confused as to as to what trigger they're looking for ... right then a very clear metric with interest rates and interest rates are kind of a very simple ... Instinet ... AG the gulls operate goes down and its measures and they have charts and graphs and they tell us when they expect to raise short-term interest rates ... and at least as of the March meeting the answer is not for a long time ... not until twenty fifteen not until unemployment gets down to six nap percent ... they don't have such a precise way of talking about ... this bond buying and that's the problem ... so they put a lot of phrases in their statements in the midst of Rene Kyi has added some language in various Fed officials of added more aligned with ... and no one's quite sure what will it take for the Fed to begin to go from eighty five to seventy five ... to fifty and so forth ... and when did they expect and this extraordinary ... purchase of bonds which are designed to keep a long-term interest rates down and I'm sure one of my colleagues last Mr. burn Anqi that depressed ... me in detail ... you you another thing you mention way wasn't so long ago that ... the Fed ... delight in keeping margins on their toes fooling the markets and you can make a good argument that ... that keeps people from taking excessive risks for instance now ... at what is why is it so important today ... we all know in advance exactly what the feds can do when they're gonna do it ... because once the Fed cut short-term interest rates to zero it needed to do something more to stimulate the economy ... and one of its tricks was ... to sail to the bond market the long and short demonstrates our baby low for very long time ... the hope that would leave long-term Ridge estate to stay down ... and make other press and other asset prices behave accordingly so communications about the future they call it forward guidance that the Fed ... is critically important ... once you hit the zero interest rate floor ... okay last question when you expect bond buying to taper if ever ... David whatever I'm ... I don't know I know our survey of Wall Street John forecasters onwallstreet suggested Dave Moulton expected to taper if the economy performs is as as as the Fed expects ... either in the end of this year the very beginning beginning of two thousand and fourteen ... but I'm certain the Fed is going to try make it very gentle to avoid anymore tumble to the markets ok David Wessel joining us from Washington thank so much ... you outcome ... stock futures little changed ahead of the policy statements the Fed's policy statement which by the way we will have full coverage of the at two pm ... then there will be press the press conference the Twinkies press conference at two thirty ... a full coverage of that on WS J live in analysis afterwards ... again stock futures are little changed ahead of that mature Zemsky from Dow Jones joins me now on that's ... so ... we're just in a holding pattern waiting waiting for more this afternoon yet it straight so aam things for me I mean of ... the common make sense to know if we've got this prevents the state brings the kids on the mark in either direction ... you know um ... my cards in a vineyard for several days that people been kind of ... try not to take big bets ahead of that year because the leak on one side of that ok ... aam ... you know let's just go ahead and jump over then since it is not a lot happening and contest in anticipation that right there are three stocks however that were paying attention to today ... the first one is straight right so is there an end in the fight for that ... yet so you know be caused by outside this been going on for little while aam ... Dish went to ... expiration for ... aam and to lessen essentially to make to make a ... five race bid for the company ... and now when the deadline passed and so ... Sprint use trading a little bit lower because the prospect of higher becoming the table is is now moves ... okay ... okay so it now looks like Softbank ... topic is Guinea get it yet I mean yes actually there the one with a high status of its dishes ... the thousands on their egos of not moving over to Tesla they have lagged effect to recalling some cars yet it's right so it's um ... it's in weekend as part of the backseat own tussles in Manhattan you ... know customer complaints and any injuries or anything ... um but selling in the venture's adrenal a bill or pre market in the tussle of course has had just this remarkable ... run-up in its share price this year so it may be needed someone like this is you know what's real or not is a trait that I looked on my screenplay is only down point two yet it is or was Tesla shares his ... next to nothing right given how volatile the den Yet yet mean it's it's facing the recall is right that's been an incredible story with its opposite it's okay ... I last Adobe ... yet with so you know it Adobe is business transition to this sort of more cloud based ... business model ... on the reported earnings and a smaller than expected drop in quarterly profit ... and doubt and transitions ... of their customers from you know that ... the ... installed software to this cloud subscription model at that salary from the previous quarter and one shares to an end ... shares of do well pre market so that ... ok I think so much that the cliche and for more comeback ... for MoneyBeat ... ten thirty ... I will be right back ... Tce ... welcome back to news of the U S may be at odds with Russia over the fate of Syria ... the present Obama doesn't want that stand in the way for the reductions in the two countries' nuclear arsenals ... you'll be making a major foreign policy address in Berlin today to make his case to wean Barnes joins us from Washington chilling in ... the morning ... the twenty oh ... so ... there's there's already a tree in place to reduce ... nuclear arsenals ... this new the new start treaty from from from twenty ten ... what is President Obama is additional goal ... another of the votes were off to the one thousand one hundred warheads ... you start to slow or schools of thought ... the ... much in the United States added up to two hundred fifty on what to ... build a nuclear experts in America saying that our souls still long is larger than what is needed to allow them trying to be an effective teacher ... and so we get we have about fifteen hundred nuclear war and peace and Pres Obama wants to get back to about a thousand respectively for the US and Russia ... well that's ... right um and you know ... it will be on the two phone call so it's nice to me to Republicans in Washington they are ... on the signals for a couple years now and they're very skeptical of further cuts in March ... how will I what what are the new Fitbit prison Obama thinks ... can be ... taking easily out of commission in addition to what was Ardi called for the new start treaty ... well what we've been told is this is not a radical redesign of ... the nuclear deterrent in other words ... the Triad remains in place ... so that there will be ... fallers Intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear armed ... missiles on some stock ... none of that ... would go away ... it's clear that the old media is many of those off don't use many inner ... ballistic missile they don't use many of bombers ready to go ... up or an up ... or down runways ... so he's just a reduction ... already for the details will ... be worked out in negotiations with Russia ... okay ... if if you're actually at another side benefit here ... racquetball each other up maybe it's a bit but but you can save a lot of money ... by faith in the second mission ... that's right the US ... is the Xinhua modernization believe new submarines we need and Palmer's ... and Intercontinental ballistic missiles in the words themselves made the aging ... of the Republicans during the new start treaty ... unexpected bonuses from the administration for a lot of modernization ... aam but now in the age of the sequester ... up it's unclear whether the US can afford to modernize ... the entire range of of ... nuclear but so ... is possible that these cuts will see my ... by the way speaking of the speech prison Obama is giving ... their lead ... consequential place historically ... that's right I mean the decision shows ... remember QE up because Bill Clinton spoke their ... own ratings for their ... bought and Kennedy himself Jonah academia speech in Berlin ... in fifty years ago ... on in that they want to bow to ... the grander of the importance of those dresses now ... nuclear issues will be the only thing ... Obama talks now to talk about climate change will talk about ... a ... counterterrorism ... um but but the setting is important to the stage ... laughing got a curious question ... when comes to reducing nuclear arms how you verify ... the Russian verify we've taken my mission I we verified the take ... ALM ... so ... this decision that's been a very controversial issue with Republicans they they are very concerned about their vacation ... on the administration said that new store verification up ... up ... procedures with the use of these productions ... you know I'm not so long ago we had the Russians to were he to ... up ... as part of the verification the process so it is unusual at all of ... this and where our ... use of our most secret things we open up and and allow ... the ... trusted to take a look down and they do the same for us to take a look at ... your are our most ... sophisticated bomber that that is addicting today ... Julian Barnes thank you so much for joining us this morning ... there's lot ... and when we come back a key provision of the new healthcare law it may not be ready to go into effect ... by its deadline in October the snacks ... a key provision of the new healthcare law scheduled to go into effect in October may not be ready in time ... for talking about health care exchanges meant to provide health insurance for small businesses and individuals ... and the Government Accountability Office is raising questions about their rollout ... joining me right now Louise Radnofsky use the Journal's expert on the health care bill ... he is enjoying the right first off I it means ... to me right away ... just as there's a lot of confusion here ... what is what are the healthcare changes ... well they're sometimes called marketplace that they're sometimes called exchanges but they're basically comparison shopping websites for consumers can compare to ... a range of fairly tightly regulated insurance plans to select one they can also in some cases apply for subsidies worth the cost of premiums ... and basically designed to be a one stop shop to get people who don't have insurance right now or who had a duty to ensure they don't like ... into what's what's considered to be better protected there in terms that covered their offering or the price ... okay now it's interesting for for talking bout a marketplace ... for places don't function very well was to have a lot of choices in them to price compare ... but ... what why why actually here's the probably a lot of insurance companies are willing to ... provide plans to the exchanges when I ... write this the insurance markets in the country right now I there isn't a lot of competition ... and in some cases new carriers of entered the market that's good news New Startups up and in other cases ... they're still one carrier in the area and so those places in China Ren exchanges that Washington state New Hampshire which mentions story today ... even though for the small business portion of the exchange's Kennedy only one carrier participating in Washington state that means that because the carrier isn't willing to sell in all houses the States ... the exchange there to do in their first years more pilot thing than what they expected to be able to roll out initially ... okay I wanna bring in right now Mike Brady who is a small business owner in Maryland much of from hobby works Micah morning ... more than ... rhetoric ... if the surgery is that what I wanna ask wheel ... what changes will will these create the kind of competition you think will drive down your health care costs ... well I hope so ... my reason for hope so and then thinking so is that the end we will come in Maryland but cut my hair quarter Drewry pet stores in Maryland and Virginia around Washington D C area ... and while we've ... always have to deal with the matter which already mandates a small group coverage meaning that day ... for many years now mandated that if you're selling insurance around to cover small groups ... on ... you hafta have portability you can't go walk the pre existing conditions as a result of that ... we've always had only a very small number of carriers to choose from over the last eighteen years and I've been offered health insurance ... be this theory from one to three ... um already ... there are some states ... that are getting more ... providers of that Arizona is about to be had for willing to buy coverage the exchanges at the Maryland announced in April ... that ... but there they get six long though ... um so that already is double the current number that we have to choose from how the legal battle of the steep prices might tell how will ... you were health care plans change for employees to be paying less to be getting more coverage less coverage to be paying more when he thinking how to Howell how would shake out ... what I think will shake out is that it will be paying ... less ... for similar covers that we have now ... a week then we'll be able ... to pay to contribute it ... toward a higher percentage than half price target is this week ... contributed one hundred percent ... of health insurance coverage than over the years our congregation has declined ... to about half ... and at the same time that our congregation has declined ... the covers where offering of the employee has become less robust ... in ... the last meal before ... too easily bring you back and now as as Micah said ... in Maryland sounds like they are getting some more in insurance carriers into the exchange ... we are aware that states that are having the biggest problems and what is the can it take ... to attract more insurers ... all and certainly one of the states where there was fairly robust interesting carriers both in participating in individually Steyn said in a small business exchange mention Washington stated New Hampshire ... I would have a long way to go in terms of getting carriers participate in that respect we haven't been there and you have city and the fund typically has about ninety percent vehicle market ... they clearly have a strong footprint of the clown show that the participating in its own small business exchange ... and really what it missed ration is hoping is that over time the fact that the marketplace ... will offer new opportunities for competitors to answer shedding tears and to do so but it's it's it's um way out ... ok we say so much for joining us Mike ... last word you get your overall your pre support you think this is gonna be ... good law free or for free workplace ... well you know certainly from a small business perspective the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare or whatever people are what all these days ... is ... a lot of pluses for small ... and there's the tax incentives to encourage small businesses that are currently offering coverage offer it ... so you're under fifty employees there's almost no negatives ... around and in the role in what we hope will happen with of the shop exchanges ... more competition among providers ... for ... people participating hopefully the coming to see if it doesn't it means lower rates ... that it perhaps just in time to be in this sort of double digit annual increases in I think it's better ... I think it's better that the government move slowly together I didn't move fast and get ... ok ... my free from hobby worsen Alan thank you so much for joining us this morning ... thanks for having ... in just a reminder for everyone that ... the Fed's ... interest rate decision coming out later this afternoon we'll have full coverage of that on WS J live two o'clock Eastern time and also of then burning keys press conference ... to thirty ... Eastern time and analysis ... afterward ... so be sure to come back for that and thank you so much for joining us on the New Saab this morning I'm Ralf Winkler