by Bill McBride on 3/03/2012 01:10:00 PM
Saturday, March 03, 2012
• Summary for Week ending March 2nd
The key report this week is the February employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) scheduled for Friday. Other reports include the February ISM service index on Monday, and the January trade balance report on Friday.
The Federal Reserve will release the Q4 Flow of Funds report on Thursday.
On Thursday, March 8th, the €200bn private sector Greek bond swap is scheduled. Also on the 8th, the ECB holds a rate meeting.
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for a decrease to 56.1 from 56.8 in January. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.
This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for January. The consensus is for a 0.9% decline in orders.
No Releases Scheduled.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 200,000 payroll jobs added in February, up from the 170,000 reported last month.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for January. The consensus is for a $10.0 billion increase in consumer credit.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be unchanged at 351,000.
12:00 PM: Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts from the Federal Reserve.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for February. The consensus is for an increase of 204,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February, down from the 243,000 jobs added in January.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 8.3%.
This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through January.
The economy has added 3.17 million jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (3.66 million private sector jobs added, and 510 thousand public sector jobs lost).
There are still 5.2 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started. (5.6 million fewer total nonfarm jobs).
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for January from the Census Bureau.
Imports stalled in the middle of 2011, but increased towards the end of the year (seasonally adjusted). Exports are well above the pre-recession peak and up 9% compared to December 2010; imports are up about 11% compared to December 2010.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $49.0 billion in January, up from from $48.8 billion in December. Export activity to Europe will be closely watched.
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for January. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in inventories.