Sorry, but he has no chance as the season progresses. Too many losses will doom him, as will the interceptions and sore knee and shoulder.
I don't care about the Heisman, though, and nobody else should. It's the most ridiculous award in all of team sports, with only one legit winner (1997) in the last 50 years.
Desmond Howard didn't deserve it?
If Alexander didn't get hurt that season, he doesn't win. FWIW
Be that as it may, the fact that Desmond put up those monster numbers (23 TDs!) in an offense where he was the only deep threat, and faced constant double-teams, is all the more remarkable. He actually had slightly more yardage the previous season, but fewer TDs.
has a lot to do with recruiting and program prestige. Why would you not care? Anything positive that keeps UM in media can only help with recruits. Just saying.
It doesn't matter how ridiculous the award is. It would still be a great moment for Michigan and a huge boost for RichRod's profile as a coach, leading to better recruiting. I can't imagine anything negative coming out of winning the Heisman.
...somehow I figure the MSM would still spin it negatively.
"Rodriguez has the Heisman winner and can only win X games in the Big Ten?!!" ... you know how it goes.
....sentence you posted. Only one!?! I dislike Tebow, but the season he won it he deserved it.
Tony Dorsett in 1976? There are some others who won it that deserved it as well, including some who won it in close races. Overall, the award has been awarded rightly, with recent times trending towards the MVP of the best team. For example, Bush didn't deserve the award over V Young, and Ingram didn't deserve the award over Suh or Gerhardt.
IF we keep losing, and IF he keeps throwing INTs, and IF he continues to be hurt, he won't win? I mean, a reasonably possible prediction...but, well, duh.
To the original question, you may be right, in that his chances have gone way down. But it's certainly not zero chance, particularly if we win some games, and he starts playing just a little bit better (not a lot).
Put it this way...we get to 8 wins, and Denard tears up OSU for 500 yards (in a win or a loss), I'd say he has a pretty good chance. It's doing that which is going to be hard.
And I'm sure you could come up with a whole lot more ridiculous team awards in sports if you put your mind to it. (And a whole lot more legit winners).
So who used the word IF? This is exactly what I wrote:
"Too many losses will doom him, as will the interceptions and sore knee and shoulder."
As far as the Heisman goes, it's a ridiculous award because—with the singular exception of 1997—fully half of the players on any team are functionally and automatically excluded from serious consideration from the get-go. Let's be honest—if Lloyd Carr hadn't been wise enough to see the advantage of using Woodson on offense, the chances of Woodson winning the Heisman would have declined drastically, and Manning would have been the beneficiary. The Heisman was originally conceived when everybody played two ways, so it was legitimate to regard it as an award for the "best player in college football."
Under the current actual but unwritten constraints, Desmond was certainly the most worthy recipient in 1991, by far. But was he really the single best college football player among all the players on all the teams in D1A that year? That's a different question.
of course he has a chance, but not getting injured will play a major role. Maybe more so then his stats.
Does a bear shit in the woods?
Is having a snowball fight with pitching great Randy Johnson a bad idea?
Seriously Victors, how the eff is this possible? Same post, same time. My mind=blown.
Is getting in a snowball fight with Randy Johnson a bad idea?
Did the little piggy cry wee, wee, wee, all the way home?
Can a woodchuck chuck wood?
Also a tasty beverage!
he put up 100+ yds rushing on a top 5 rushing defense in less than a whole game I would say yes.
His play in the first 5 games puts him there. If he continues in B10 season to be a non-factor, then he isn't there at the end. My own personal opinion is that he will blast another few teams on the schedule for 400+ total yards, and this two-game stretch will be the anomaly of the season. Remember, he still had over 300 yards against MSU, and the biggest reason he didn't get more yds/TDs wasn't the MSU defense, but his own misreads or poor throws. I have a feeling that Denard busts a 250/250 game against PSU next week.
then absolutely. But I think others will still be ahead of him.
hype's over. now it's time to burn some teams and earn that pose.
Sure, he deserves to still be in it. Former winners have had bad games before(and I would say neither MSU nor Iowa game was a "bad" game for him). I seem to remember we completely shut down Ron Dayne in his winning year, etc. I do think after these last two games that the only two games that matter are Wisconsin and Ohio State. If he shreds Penn State/Illinois/Purdue and then has average games again against those two, I don't think he'll win it. He needs to shred a great D to win it, I think. OSU is obviously a perfect venue to do that.
Is he still the nations leading rusher?
Is he still the 16th most efficient QB in the country?
Has he passed for a decent amount of yards given that we are barely over the halfway mark?
Hmmm... I'd say that's a yes
The Heisman is about performance over the whole season. We've still got 5 games to play.
I'm more interested in winning football games than hyping Denard at the moment. It's been unlikely from the start that he'd win it, anyway. Not many Heismans have gone to players on 8-4 teams.
Now if he goes nuts and beats Wisconsin and OSU with the team finishing 10-2, we've got a different story to tell.
He's still putting up decent numbers, but they aren't the astronomical numbers he was putting up earlier in the season.
If we had actually had a competent defense this entire season, this is where I would have expected Denard all along -- putting up the type of numbers he's put up these past two games vs the ones he put up the first 5 games.
You have to think if we weren't having to outscore our opponents up to the last minute, we would have drained more time off the clock, thus slowing down the amount of total yards we gained by the end of the game.
He's still got two more years, I'm not worried :)
Yes and no. It depends on how he plays obviously. If he plays like the first five games of the season, he'll have a good chance to win it, despite these last two games. If he has another game like this though, no I wouldn't think so. He's had two bad games and in comparison to Newton (Top 5 team, big rushing threat, high QB rating) and Moore (Top 3 team, huge stats) it would be hard to beat them out if he had another one...
By the way, how the hell is Auburn so good suddenly? I really need to look into their team but how did their coach suck so bad at Iowa State but turn Auburn around? I know Gus Malzahn is ridiculous but damn...
By the way, how the hell is Auburn so good suddenly?
They have also played a bunch of teams with meh defenses. Let's see how looks against LSU and Alabama. A couple of their wins have been really close, high-scoring affairs, and those can turn around against better defenses. But yeah, Newton has been a revelation.
.....thats who I can see Devin Gardner being similar to in the future.
Cam - 6'6" 247lbs Junior
Devin - 6'4" 205lbs Freshman
Let Barwis put some muscle on Devin over the next couple years. Maybe he gets to 220lbs. Yes the future is bright.
I think that he's not only in it but in the top 5 (at least, maybe still the leader), with a significant step down in opposing defense coming for the next three games. Cam Newton is in the leader group, but we'll see what he does against a few more decent defenses. Andrew Luck? Possibly. Mallett is out. Pryor is out. Taylor Martinez was never legitimately in it. No other Big Ten player has even entered the conversation. LaMichael James is still in it, but there is no way that a running back with fewer yards on the season than Denard will win it. Not a snowball's chance. Kellen Moore might be the leader. He is putting up insane numbers and if his team goes undefeated he might win it.
http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/ is the best place to keep track of who is in consideration, as they know what a bunch of actual heisman voters are saying. It should update tomorrow or Friday probably with their new poll since the Iowa game.
and I always forget about them. Thanks for mentioning them.
From a pure stats perspective, certainly - even the past two "down" weeks are relative, as he had 301 yards against MSU and then 201 yards against Iowa in a little over a half of play. But at the same time, he's been exposed a bit the past few weeks for his lack of touch passing, and while I fully expect that to improve over the season, he needs a good showing against an above-average defense. Also, the team needs to win for him to have any chance. But right now, he's in the running, but I doubt he or anyone else on the team really cares.
Can't tell me he's not trying hold it in
There are a few general criteria on which players are evaluated for the trophy:
1. Best player on the best team - more likley to be Kellen Moore, Cam Newton, or LaMichael James at this point in the season. No one is going to mistake Michigan for the best team this year.
2. Clutch performances in big games (read - Woodson over Peyton Manning). Denard has the two game winning drvies against clubs with mediocre records. Considering he was closer to goat-like substance for MSU and Iowa, he would have to destroy Wisc and OSU to make this a positive. Newton and James here again.
3. Most valuable player. This was Denard weeks 1-5 without a doubt. He'll probably regain some of that form the next three games but give ground against Wisc and OSU.
4. Best player in college football. Given the recent picks, again an uphill battle.
He has a realistic shot of picking up some votes, which is still cool. More like Mike Hart Heisman finish awaits him me thinks.
He'll have to perform well the second half of the season, though (duh).
He controls his own destiny.
If he amazes against PSU or OSU with all eyes watching, he's right back in it. People are so extreme, 3 weeks ago people were saying he was a lock. It's all based on wins and a wow factor. If he just puts up average stas for him the next few weeks and puts up like 500 yds against OSU and they win in dramatic fashion you are telling me he won't get votes swung his way.
Likely? no. Possible? yes
Yes, but not the front-runner.
The Heisman favorite in this stage is none other than Cam Newton
of "heismenology" on ESPN. Pryor is on tier 4 lol.
Sure, why not. He's put himself in the discussion and if he plays great and the team wins just enough--dont forget Tebow's team had 4 losses the year he won--then he'll be a contender in the end.
Right now, per the odds, its Cam Newton's to lose. Kellen Moore is just doing his thing as other candidates ebb and flow, so he's chalk right now too. Here are the betting odds, per sportsbook.com.....the numbers reperesent how much you win if you wager $100.
Are those actual transactions going on right now? Becuase I find it incredible that Taylor Martinez is considered more than twice as likely to win the Heisman as Denard. If that really is the way things are and you can sell odds, I'd bet my 401K against Martinez with those odds.
team, therefor has a better shot. I said this three weeks ago and I still believe it:
There is a very good chance that the winner of the OSU/UM game could also win their QB the Heisman. Now we will see. I think Denard, up until the OSU game will go back to throwing up ridiculous numbers and place himself at the top. I don't see Auburn going undefeated, but if they do, Cam Newton will win it. He needs to lose for anyone else to have a chance at this point. Taylor Martinez talk will fall off I think. I just don't think he can be at all consistent plus he got yanked, not injured.
Pryor is out. Completely out. He was pretty much out before the Wisky game.
I agree that Newton would be a shoe-in if Auburn wins every game, but they probably won't. They are a pretty flawed team. Cam Newton wasn't being talked about a whole bunch until the game that he had against Arkansas. Let's see if he's still a leading candidate after playing LSU. I'd put Denard's chances at winning the Heisman right now at about 20-25%.
Yes, those were the current odds a couple hours ago.
I dont know where you can find odds to bet against certain players. I thought the Martinez odds were generoud. Denard went from +150 before MSU, to +500 after MSU to +800 now.
Martinez's odds are pretty much the same this week as they were last week
I just want him to help the team win more games, and to limit the terrible interceptions. If he is still in the Heisman race after that, then that's just peaches.
This was a perfect time for Denard to drop down the list: two losses with 4 INTs, after 5 games of statistical annihilation.
As we get through the rest of the season, however, assuming he stays healthy, Denard's numbers will be impossible to ignore. He will almost certainly become the only man in NCAA history to have rushed and passed for 1,500 yards in the same season.
The media isn't paying attention to that fact right now, but by the time we beat Purdue, they will be.
If he can't impress during the PSU game then there won't even be a chance.
I would rather we win our games. Hopefully he doesn't get hurt, but i have a feeling he won't be able to keep it up.
But he will need to accumulate some great stats over the next few weeks in advance of Wisconsin and OSU, setting up a big performance in big game finish. But without three wins in the next three weeks, he is forgotten no matter how well he does.
I have another feeling, Denard will have a huge game next Saturday.
To win the Heisman, Denard needs a few things...
1. An 8-4 record at least. I don't think that a 7-5 player can win it. Tebow won it with 9-3. I think that 8-4 is probably the floor.
2. A statistical accomplishment like either leading the nation in rushing or breaking the NCAA record for rushing yards by a QB. This is going to be impossible to ignore. Denard is going to end up with more yards and a higher ypc than last year's Heisman Trophy winning running back.
3. No more games with conspicuous tunovers.
With those three conditions, I think that he wins it handily.
To be more specific, I think Denard needs to compile some good numbers against PSU, Illinois, and Purdue while winning all three, and then not look bad against Wiscy or OSU. An upset over OSU would help immensely. He will definitely need to show that he can perform against a good Big Ten defense, though.
Just optimistic speculation here -- I think that Denard will become the first guy to go 200 rushing and 200 passing three times in the same season. The most likely team to do this against is Purdue, but I could see it possibly happening against Penn State, given all of their injuries on defense and how they are the absolute worst injuries to have against Denard.
One thing to consider is that Denard has had by far the best "bad" games of anyone so far. For a truly terrible performance against a good defense, see Taylor Martinez vs Tejas. All of the talk about how Greg Jones or Adrian Clayborn would blow up our unproven offense is gone now. It's all down to turnovers, turnovers, turnovers.
five times? Three in a row as well. I kid. I think that is too much to expect but sure would be neat to see.
Denard is the nation's leading rusher at any position, by a margin of 198 yards.
That is simply remarkable for a QB -- I don't believe a QB has ever ended the season as the nation's leading rusher.
I think the interceptions have hurt him more than the losing. He's really got to cut down on that.
He would have to have several really big games against quality opposition, and and there isn’t much room left for him to have another bad game.
This bye week will help him tremendously recovering from 6 weeks of performing, Me thinks he goes wild against PSU, Illinois and Purdue. I'm going on record here saying in either the Wiscy or OSU game he goes bonkers and torches one of them catapulting him back into the top 3 for the Heisman. For some strange reason I have a feeling he does it against OSU and RichRod serves up a nice big Shitburger to all the doubters. You heard it here first....
Yes, he deserves to still be in the race. But Cam Newton is having a better year. I would say Newton has the best chance to win, then James, then Moore, then Denard.
How bad does Urban Meyer feel after kicking Newton off the team???
Cam Newton having a better year? No way. Cam Newton plays for a better team. Cam Newton doesn't play defense (nor does Denard). Great player though. But ask yourself: would you trade Denard for Cam? Would anyone?
Beat OSU and he will win the Heisman
wins and losses as well as individual performance. In all likelihood, he won't be in the top group of contender's by season's end.
I can't see Denard winning it without a win over OSU, short of all the other heisman contenders self-destructing late in the season. Heisman winners have to win their last game, or else be on a really good team (2003 for example). I don't see it happening otherwise, even with a 9-3 record and a crazy valiant in defeat effort.
1,000 yards rushing? Check, and PSU, ILL and Purdon't on deck.
Decent completion %? 68% Check
Decent TD to INT ratio? 9 to 2 with 3 patsies coming up. Check.
Potential to upset major rival OSU on the road to seal the deal and jump over other contenders? Check.
He took a big hit the last two weeks and has officially caught interceptionitis, but I'd say his chances to re-contend are better than most people want to admit.
Denard does not deserve consideration AT THIS POINT. Of course, the Heisman "race" is so fluid that a guy might be the leader one week and drop out completely the next. This cuts both ways, though, so while Denard has dropped out at this juncture, if he were to resume his play of the first 5 weeks he would certainly deserve re-consideration by the time the award is actually voted on.