OTTAWA—It’s what the security types call a low-probability, high-impact incident.
An apparently remote possibility that the June gatherings of key world leaders could be the target of a devastating attack or other catastrophe means the government is planning for the worst-case scenario.
And because the G8 is taking place in Huntsville, Ont., and the G20 summit in Toronto, it involves twice the effort to ensure visiting VIPs and community members are safe.
Officially, authorities are saying little about what might go wrong at the conferences and exactly how they’re spending the more than $830 million allotted to date for security.
“We have sufficient resources and plans in place to deal with any eventuality,” said Insp. Dave Ross of the Ontario Provincial Police, part of the integrated security unit for the G8.
The actual risk to the summits is likely low to medium, said Wesley Wark, a University of Toronto historian who specializes in intelligence.
“But the worst case is that many, many terrible things might happen,” he said.
“Might there be a terrorist strike? Might there be a lone-wolf attack of some kind? Might this event be the focus for some concerted violent action on part of an extremist group of some kind or another?”
As a result, police and military forces are getting ready for everything from wayward black bears in the Muskokas to a radioactive dirty bomb in downtown Toronto.
The core of Canada’s largest city will be virtually locked down during the G20 summit weekend of June 25-27. Via Rail says it will move its operations out of its hub at Union Station during the summit and use suburban stations in Oakville, Brampton, Oshawa and north Toronto.
GO commuter trains will continue to run, but slowdowns are likely.
The May firebombing of an Ottawa bank by anti-corporate extremists — who warned they would also make their mark on the summits — raised fears of more violence.
But those who track radical movements expect little impact on the actual security preparations.
“I think already, any time you have something like the G8 and G20 they’re probably already doing everything they can to begin with,” said Paul Joosse, a doctoral candidate at the University of Alberta who studies extremist violence.
David Charters, a University of New Brunswick expert on terrorism, expects the vast majority of protesters at the summits will be peaceful.
“There will be small handfuls of more extreme people who are prepared to engage in confrontational or aggressive behaviour and use more forceful or violent means.”
The protesters planning to make their voices heard at the summits are a coalition of activists on issues including the global economy, trade, banking, climate and water.
Rallies will begin as early as June 18-21 during the People’s Summit with most happening on the official summit weekend.
There will be plenty of digital dialogue, posters, music and speeches. Police expect most protests will be peaceful.
Still, anarchists plan a “militant march” to the G20 summit perimeter fence June 26.
“You’re talking about extremist groups that are very marginal to the mainstream,” said Andy Knight, a political scientist at the University of Alberta who’s expecting them to do little actual damage.
“I don’t think that they’ll have very much of a chance to do so because security’s going to be very heavy.”
The “out-of-control, astounding security budget” is a reflection of the G20 being held in the “most difficult-to-protect urban environment in Canada,” said Wark.
“The truth of the matter is that it should have been given a lot more thought from the very outset,” he said.
“The security considerations were not uppermost in the minds of the government.”
As a result, officials will spend almost $1 billion to guard against something that likely won’t happen, Wark said.
“That’s a staggering idea when you come to think of it.”