Borders are closed and international travel to the USA is down. “I don’t think anyone thought it would be possible to halt international travel to virtually zero!” exclaimed Scott Johnson, president and CEO of Travel Market Insights (TMI), in the firm’s latest monthly update of its research newsletter, adding, “The decline in April 2020 over April 2019 visits is the largest decline in history! The global response to the COVID-19 virus has resulted in an unprecedented impact on international travel to the United States.”
With the above as preface, Johnson asserted that, going forward, 2019 will be the new benchmark year in tracking and reporting the rebound, recovery, and forecast for international travel to U.S. destinations.
A Recap: Johnson noted that the decline in overseas visitor traffic to the U.S. in April 2020 was the largest decline, year-over-year, in history. All world regions were down nearly 100 percent in April, he pointed out, adding that, for the year, through April, visits to the U.S. have been cut in half (down -48.3 percent). Western Europe declined the strongest (down -51 percent) and visits from Eastern Europe declined the least (down -41.8 percent).
(For a country-by-country account of top overseas arrivals to the U.S. for the month of April, visit https://www.inboundreport.com/2020/05/26/overseas-arrivals-down-99-6-last-month/)
In his brief update narrative, Johnson added the following:
—2019 will be the new benchmark, pre-coronavirus. The Canada drive market is widely accepted as the first major market segment to rebound. The Canadian drive market to the U.S. is larger than the top three overseas markets combined.
—The Mexico drive market will likely start to rebound after the border is open as well, although fewer states will benefit compared to Canada.
—There will likely be fewer direct air routes and more hub and spoke routes.
—There will be casualties in the supply chain.
—Vacation and visiting friends and family in “familiar” destinations will kick off the rebound, with business and education following.
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