Tasmania has fewer minor parties running; but this hasn’t really made prediction much easier…
TAS Election Outcome Breakdown
What does this mean?
Well, the LNP is guaranteed 4 seats, the ALP is (all but) guaranteed 4 seats each and The Greens are guaranteed 1 seat. The rest of them are up for grabs! The most likely outcome is:
|Liberal National Coalition||5|
|Australian Labor Party||4|
|Jacqui Lambie Network||1|
As with Queensland, it’s so hard to predict support for the Jacqui Lambie Network, and with ballot placement behind the Liberal National Coalition for the Liberal Democrats it’s hard to estimate their vote. I performed logistic regression of the outcomes and have made some curves which denote the probability of an individual party getting a seat, given their primary vote.
Family First Party
Jacqui Lambie Network (Seat 1)
Jacqui Lambie Network (Seat 2)
The Liberal Democrats
The Nick Xenophon Team
All of the other minor parties should be (pretty) easily eliminated. The Australian Sex Party and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are in with a chance, but they need to significantly increase their primary vote.
And the major parties:
Ooh, running total?
The running total (for my predictions for NSW, SA, QLD and TAS (and the two Territories, which will be 2ALP + 2LNP) are now:
|Party||Seats||Other States (#spoilers)||Totals|
|Liberal National Coalition||21||5+5||31|
|Australian Labor Party||17||4+4||25|
|Nick Xenophon Team||5||5|
|The Liberal Democrats||2||2|
|Jacqui Lambie Network||1||1|
|Glen Lazarus Team||1||1|
|Katter or Hanson or Xenophon||1||1|
|Minor Parties (No #spoilers)||1+1||2|
These are very likely to change as I run more simulations and get a feel for the recent movement in the polls. (Note: NXT + GRN + ALP = 38 … Continue to make of that what you will).