Using the following figure as a reference, explain why people tend to overestimate the probability of rare events.

![alt text](https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofprobability/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.worldofprobability/files/media/ImagesUncleTonyDreads.gif "Uncle Tony Dreads")
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People tend to overestimate the probability of rare events because they tend to rely on their own experience and memory. For example, in the Uncle Tony Dreads example pictured, Uncle Tony frequently retells the story of how he was attacked by a shark. This story reinforces the idea that shark attacks are more common than they are in reality and people may begin to overestimate the probability of being attacked by a shark. This is due to the availability heuristic, which states that our brains tend to take into account the information that is more easily accessible (in this case, Uncle Tony's story) and use that to determine the likelihood of a certain event occurring, regardless of the actual probability.
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