Explain the "prosecutor's fallacy" like I am five.
Imagine you have a bag of 100 marbles. You know that 90 of the marbles are blue and 10 are red.

You pick a marble out of the bag without looking, and it's blue.

The "prosecutor's fallacy" is when someone argues that the probability you picked a blue marble is 90% or very high. But that's wrong.

Once you've picked a marble, either it was blue (which it was) or red. The probabilities reset to either 100% or 0%.

The correct way to think about it is that before picking, there was a 90% chance of picking blue. But after picking, there is a 100% chance that you picked the marble you picked.

The "prosecutor's fallacy" gets its name because prosecutors sometimes commit this fallacy, arguing that the probability of someone's guilt is very high based on evidence, without taking into account that either they are guilty or not guilty, 100% or 0%, once the crime has occurred.
Below is an instruction that describes a task. Write a response that appropriately completes the request.

### Instruction:

Explain the "prosecutor's fallacy" like I am five.

### Response:

Imagine you have a bag of 100 marbles. You know that 90 of the marbles are blue and 10 are red.

You pick a marble out of the bag without looking, and it's blue.

The "prosecutor's fallacy" is when someone argues that the probability you picked a blue marble is 90% or very high. But that's wrong.

Once you've picked a marble, either it was blue (which it was) or red. The probabilities reset to either 100% or 0%.

The correct way to think about it is that before picking, there was a 90% chance of picking blue. But after picking, there is a 100% chance that you picked the marble you picked.

The "prosecutor's fallacy" gets its name because prosecutors sometimes commit this fallacy, arguing that the probability of someone's guilt is very high based on evidence, without taking into account that either they are guilty or not guilty, 100% or 0%, once the crime has occurred.
