After the publication of data on the change in the number of initial jobless claims last week, economists raised their estimates on the number of created jobs. The maximum estimate of growth among economists reached about 1 million people and no one expected a reduction. The median forecast is 647,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to be 6.0%, which is 0.2% less than it was last month.
Pre-pandemic levels have already been reached or even exceeded in many sectors of the economy. Economic data began to grow rapidly even before the softening of social distancing measures and extensive vaccination. From retail to industrial manufacturing, there have been more and more signs of strong acceleration in growth over the past few months. The March jobs report can be a watershed moment when the numbers show growth rates that have never been seen before.
The figures from ADP support such positive data. US private companies added the most jobs in six months in March. According to the latest data released on Wednesday, the workforce of the companies increased by 517,000 within a month.
Significant growth in hiring was observed in the leisure and hospitality sectors. Small and medium-sized businesses showed higher employment growth than large companies this month.
"Job growth in the service sector is well above the recent monthly average," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson declared in her statement. "This sector has the most possibilities for improvement as the business is gradually recovering and the vaccine becomes more affordable."
- Support levels: 92.45, 91.70
- Resistance levels: 93.88, 94.70
Due to the expectations of high NFP data, the dollar index is demonstrating a confident northern trend. USDX has consolidated above the moving averages on the H1, H4, and D1 timeframes. ADX indicates the strength of bullish pressure which is above average. If positive data is released (higher than expected), the index may continue to rise to the first resistance level. In case of consolidation above the level of 93.88, the northern signal will strengthen, since the moving average SMA 50 on the W1 timeframe will be broken through.