Model one looked at trends observed in the school districts during the last two years. Growth from model one ranged from a 23 percent increase in Dickinson to a 153 percent increase in Watford City. In the next five years, the model projects there would be 178 more students in Ray, 200 in Stanley, 635 in Dickinson, 1,118 in Williston and more than 1,300 in Watford City in the next five years.
Model two looked at employment trends and produced more modest enrollment projections.
“This model likely is the best indicator of long-term projections because it only considers population changes associated with a long-term, permanent workforce,” Hodur says.
“However, the model likely underestimates projections in the short term and does not take the temporary workforce into consideration.”
Even the more modest enrollment model produced projected increases through the next five years of 70 students in Ray, nearly 300 in Stanley and Watford City, nearly 600 in Dickinson and more than 700 in Williston.Use these numbers in conjunction with an earlier post to look at the Bakken boom and whether it's over or not.