We are past the peak of hurricane season, but we're not done.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
There is actually another spike of activity that happens mid-October. The most likely area for development is in the Caribbean, South Central Gulf and off the east coast of the United States.
Gulf water temps are still warm, running in the mid-80s in the South Central Gulf and low to mid-80s along the North Central Gulf. This is still plenty warm enough to get tropical development going. Water temps just need to be 80 degrees 150 feet deep.
So far we've had one depression, 10 storms, two of which became a hurricane.
We've gone all the way from Andrea to Jerry. This year, dry air, Saharan dust and upper-level lows have wreaked havoc on the tropics. That's a good thing.
The seasonal forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is 13-19 storms, six to nine hurricanes and three to five intense.
Even though we're not done, it doesn't look like we'll come anywhere near that forecast.
Right now, it looks like we will end up below average. An average season has 12 storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. Of course, it just takes one.
We have had four hurricanes and four tropical storms within 100 miles of New Orleans going back to 1900. That means we have about a seven percent chance of tropical development any October within 100 miles of New Orleans.
The strongest hurricane was No. 6 in 1915. It developed near the Lesser Antilles, moved through the Caribbean, through the Yucatan Channel and right towards Grand Isle on Sept. 29 with 145 mph winds.
The hurricane continued north and hit New Orleans with sustained winds of 102 mph. The clock on St. Louis Cathedral stopped at 5:50 p.m. when the storm was raging in New Orleans. It died on Oct. 1, so it is barely an October hurricane.
Hurricane Georges is another barely October hurricane. It formed off the coast of Africa Sept. 15, 1998, moved across the Atlantic, the Dominican Republic, Cuba and then slammed into Biloxi, Miss., Sept. 28, as a Category 2 with winds of 110 mph.
Georges caused an 8.9 foot storm surge in Biloxi and 16.7 inches of rain in Pascagoula. At Audubon Park only .88 of an inch of rain fell.
The storm surge at the Industrial Canal was 7 1/3 feet. Winds gusted to 68 mph over the Causeway. Georges died Oct. 1.
Hurricane Hilda formed Sept. 28, 1964, south of Cuba, moved through the Yucatan Channel and made landfall along South Central Louisiana coast as a Category 4 with winds of 135 mph at Franklin, La. Hilda turned east and caused three tornadoes in the New Orleans area. A cold front forced it east over the Mississippi Coast where it lost its tropical characteristics.
Hurricane Juan formed Oct. 25, 1985, just south of the Louisiana coast from an upper-low and tropical wave. It was a slow mover, and did a couple of loops along the coast. It moved onshore Oct. 29 near Morgan City, moved offshore near Vermillion Bay on Oct. 30, turned east and moved onshore on the next day in Pensacola.
Needless to say with all Juan's meandering, he dumped a lot of rain -- 17.78 inches of rain fell at Galliano. The storm also pushed a lot of water onshore, and coffins popped out of the ground in Lafitte. That was a scary Halloween Hurricane.
Currently, we are watching an area of low pressure in the Caribbean.
This is an area that's favored for development this time of the year. There is the potential for a depression or even a Karen in the near future as the Caribbean low moves into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
This system will have to cross the Yucatan Peninsula, encounter dry air and wind shear, but Gulf water temperatures are warm. Models indicate the potential for development. A cold front moving our way may keep the system east of here. We'll keep you posted.