For anyone interested in the writing on the wall, recently released U.S. census figures reinforce what we already know — cities are where the growth is.
According to statistics made available this week, America’s largest cities are growing faster than the national average. For the first time in a century, urban growth outpaced suburban growth.
How appropriate then that Toronto should launch yet another transit debate at the same moment. This is no coincidence.
The forces now changing the face of the U.S. are also at play in Canada, nowhere more so than Toronto. Though some economists like to think the switch from suburban to urban is a temporary condition brought on by a bad economy, the truth lies deeper than that.
The move to the city is not restricted to North America. Indeed, the phenomenon is global. As far back as 2006, the United Nations announced that for the first time in human history, more of us inhabit cities than the hinterland.
In sub-Saharan Africa, where the move has been most dramatic, people are heading to cities to find work. In North America, the motivation is also economic, but not exclusively so.
Quality of life remains important on this continent. In greater numbers than have been seen in decades, young people are eschewing the suburban preferences of their parents and moving downtown. Their starting point is that the logistics of suburban life increasingly outweigh its appeal. Car ownership rates, a key factor, are down. Transit usage is up.
As it’s turned out, what you gain in space, you lose in time. And the mathematics of this particular space-time continuum no longer add up.
That’s why transit in Toronto has never been so crucial. It’s also why the OneCity plan deserves to be taken seriously, even by Mayor Rob Ford. But he has made himself irrelevant. The extraordinary fact that such a plan was prepared without his knowledge, let alone participation, says much about the appalling state of Ford’s mayoralty.
While he grunts his way through his term, Ford has dropped the ball on the biggest issue facing Toronto, transit.
Other than “subways, subways, subways,” His Worship has yet to formulate anything close to a transit policy. At this point, he’s nothing more than an obstacle, not just irrelevant, but impotent.
In the meantime, the condo towers sprouting on every corner are dramatic reminders of the city’s newly acquired appeal. Transit hasn’t kept up with demand.
As we learn more about how economies work and the crucial role cities play in that process, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Toronto’s transit failure will have nasty consequences for the whole community, not just passengers.
The OneCity plan devised by TTC chair Karen Stintz and co-chair Glenn De Baeremaeker is as enlightened a scheme as Toronto has seen in years. Much discussion will follow, but what distinguishes their proposal is that it also addresses the thorny question of funding. This isn’t a debate we have been willing to have. And if the advent of Rob Ford tells us anything, it is that many Torontonians share his unwillingness to face reality.
Stintz and De Baeremaeker have forced the city’s hand, and those of the federal and provincial governments, who would cover two-thirds of the plan’s $30-billion price tag.
Not since the 1920s has economic growth in the cities outstripped that of the suburbs. Turning around that ship will take decades, but what sort of city will Toronto be when the change is complete?