The significant amount of rain the Ukiah Valley has been getting this week will likely cause flooding in the Hopland area Sunday, according to warnings issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other agencies.
"There is a high probability that Hopland will experience significant flooding this Sunday, said Sean White, general manager of the Russian River Flood Control and Water Conservation Improvement District. "The severity will depend on the accuracy of the current rain forecast."
According to the Hopland River State Forecast as of late Friday afternoon, the river is expected to reach flood stage at 2 p.m. Sunday.
"Please note that Lake Mendocino has ample room to absorb this flood and there should be no need to make any releases," White said. "We are working closely with (Sonoma County Water Agency) and the (United State Army Corps of Engineers) to maximize the flood control benefits of Lake Mendocino. The current forecast is based on a closed reservoir."
The San Francisco District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers today issued a statement about releasing water from Lake Mendocino, acknowledging that a storm is coming and that the lake has plenty of room for more water.
The release does not clearly state what level of water releases the Corp plans in the next few days, only that there's plenty of room in both Lake Mendocino and Lake Sonoma to hold more water and that the Corps does not "expect to increase the release of water" during the upcoming storms.
"Currently the water levels within the lakes allow the Corp a great deal of flexibility in managing the inflow of water from the current series of rainstorms across the Russian River Watershed," says JD Hardesty, spokesman for the Corps.
As of Friday afternoon, the Mendocino Lake level was 731.52 feet and the storage was at 58,681 acre-feet. The lake can hold as much as 122,000 acre feet (or 38 billion gallons) of water.
The Corps' District Chief of Operations and Readiness Mike Dillabough said this week's rain runoff into the lakes is being stored in the water supply pool (Lake Mendocino and Lake Sonoma) that is available to the water agencies which supports over 600,000 customers.
"The normal use of water throughout this year lowered the water pool behind both dams well below the minimum approved flood pool levels, which allows each dam's to retain most of the rainfall upstream of the dam for future water supply use," Dillabough said.
The Corps notes that at the moment lake releases are at the lowest minimum levels.
"San Francisco District officials do not expect to increase the release of water from the dams as a result of the current and upcoming storms," Hardesty said. "As always flood releases will be in accordance with the approved individual dam's water control plans and will be controlled with a focus to retain the maximum of water for water supply given the time of the year and to reduce the potential of flooding downstream."
As for the numerous creeks in the City of Ukiah and the rest of the valley, White said "I would expect to see small, localized flooding," explaining that a small board "or any kind of debris can start a plug" that will lead a creek to overflow.