Meteorologists around the tri-state — along with anyone planning weddings and other events this weekend — likely have another sleepless night ahead as Hurricane Earl continues churning toward the East Coast. While the storm’s final path is still far from certain, the tri-state could possibly see a major storm make landfall this week — something that hasn’t happened in a decade.
As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, Hurricane Earl was spinning furiously near the Turks and Caicos Islands with sustained winds of 135 mph after rapidly intensifying yesterday from a Category 1 to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Hurricane watches have also been posted for coastal North Carolina. (Follow Earl’s progress on The Journal’s interactive storm tracker.)
Over the next 48 hours, the hurricane will traverse the warm waters of the Gulf stream before a likely landfall on North Carolina’s Outer Banks sometime Thursday as a Category 3. That said, any westward deviation could spell trouble down the line for Greater New York, which hasn’t experienced a direct storm hit since Hurricane Gloria struck the region in 1985.
Here’s a not-unlikely scenario:
Wednesday afternoon: Tropical storm watches are posted from the Northern Jersey Shore to Islip, Long Island, with hurricane watches posted for the South and Central Jersey Shore and Eastern Long Island.
Thursday afternoon: Officials close local beaches as six to 10-foot waves begin to batter the coast. (This is also the time when surfers, and the TV crews that ogle them, turn out in force.)
Friday morning: Tropical storm-force winds begin to affect the southern Jersey shore.
Friday afternoon: Conditions rapidly deteriorate in South Jersey while heavy winds and rain enter the New York metro area. (Those who hold tickets to Friday’s U.S. Open matches, consider yourself warned.)
Friday night: Residents will see the worst of the conditions as Hurricane Earl makes its closest approach. That means gusts up to 80mph on the Jersey Shore and Eastern Long Island, with gusts to 100mph at Montauk Point. The city could see gusts to up 40mph, higher in the top floors of Midtown skyscrapers.
Saturday morning: Winds and seas return to normal as Earl’s winds shift to northerly and northwesterly directions. Rainfall totals in the tri-state could reach six inches or higher.
Updated computer weather models released Tuesday evening continue to shift the future track of Earl westward, closer and closer towards the East Coast. While the official track from the National Hurricane Center remains slightly offshore, taking the recent westward shift into account and the 150-200 mile historical error for a 3-4 day forecast means pretty much everyone on the East Coast bears some risk of a direct landfall.
As Earl crosses the Gulf stream tomorrow, it could briefly reach category 5 status. Thanks to the record high temperatures on the eastern seaboard this summer, the ocean waters are especially warm — ideal fuel for a strengthening storm. (Remember: A hurricane’s “job” in the climate system is to transfer excess heat energy from the tropics to the cooler mid-latitudes.)
The latest forecasts show increasing chances of tropical storm-force conditions in New York City this weekend, with probabilities currently at 19%, up from 11% Monday, and 5% Sunday. Should the trend continue, a very windy and soggy holiday weekend approaches.
Hurricane Earl might pose the greatest threat to our area since Hurricane Floyd in 1999, although the most likely scenario would more closely resemble 1991, when Hurricane Bob brushed the city with tropical storm-force winds, leaving the Jersey Shore and Eastern Long Island to bear the brunt. Expect severe beach erosion, significant waves and a storm surge of up to ten feet, even if Earl’s center technically stays offshore.
Whatever you do, this is not the weekend to test anyone’s surfing skills. There were two confirmed fatalities over the weekend from rip currents and drownings caused by ex-hurricane Danielle, which passed more than 1,000 miles away. The conditions this weekend will likely be far worse.
In the unlikely event a that Hurricane Earl hits Greater New York at Category 3 strength, here’s what you should expect: Strong winds, downed trees and power lines, dangerous rip currents and extensive flooding. In 2005, the New York Press outlined what a worst-case scenario might look like for the tri-state. It’s not pretty.