The monthly unemployment statistics for Victoria are volatile enough, but when you start carving the jobs market into regions, and then dice it further to measure unemployment for 15 to 24-year-olds, the numbers become even shakier.
Even bearing this in mind the outlook for young people looking for work has undeniably deteriorated, although it has not been uniform.
Using annual averages to iron out volatility, in the south-west, which covers Denis Napthine's electorate, youth unemployment is highest, averaging 18 per cent over the year to July, 2014, compared to 14.2 per cent for same 12-month period a year earlier.
In the north-west youth unemployment was running at an average of 15.3 per cent for the year, up from just 6.1 per cent the previous, while in Geelong it has leapt to 17.8 per cent, up from 12.4 per cent.
Although the situation appears to be improving in other parts of the state – including the political battle grounds of Ballarat and Bendigo – the deterioration and general sense of nervousness is bad news for the Napthine Government at a critical point in the political cycle.
According to the latest Age/Nielsen poll taken last month, jobs and employment ranked third out of nine priorities for voters, behind health and education. Youth unemployment represents a potent subset of this issue, given it tends to affect young people and parents.
Denis Napthine insists he has a plan for jobs, highlighting a $27 billion major projects agenda that includes both stages of the East West Link, other road projects and various rail upgrades.
It is impressive stuff which may yet create thousands of new positions. Trouble is, the major projects agenda will be delivered over a time frame lasting well into the next decade. State-wide, unemployment is already at the highest level for 13 years. It has been a perfect storm, with the looming demise of the car industry, the manufacturing sector in structural decline and the consumer and business confidence rattled by the federal budget.
For a young person looking for a job, or for worried parents, the promise of an employment-boosting infrastructure agenda for the next decade might seem like cold comfort (ditto the strong position for the state budget).
Even if voters do not directly blame the Napthine government, this general sense of tetchiness related to the outlook is unlikely to be helping the Coalition.
The concern from within Coalition ranks is that the Liberal brand has become so toxic in that voters will be lining up to punish the state government on polling day.
If the unemployment rate is to fall (there are some positive signs on the horizon for the state economy), it will take time. Three months out from the election, time is a luxury the Napthine government no longer has.