When elected officials, especially Democrats, urge people to file their census forms and caution the government against any population undercount, they do so with self-preservation in mind.
True, many have a genuine concern that their local jurisdiction and their state is accurately reflected in the nation`s demographic portrait and that per capita entitlements are disbursed equitably.
But when all the heads have been counted and a final tally is made, the bottom line for politicians is their prospect for re-election and how the partisan balance of power might shift.
The number crunching all comes down to reapportionment, or what is known as ``the remap.`` From aldermen to legislators to members of Congress, results of the 1990 census a year from now will be punched into a map-drawing computer that plays a major role in determining their fates.
For example, after the 1980 census, Democrats held the upper hand in reapportionment, and the advantage is evident in the current legislative and congressional maps. Not only did the state lose two congressional seats at that time, but four Republican incumbents were also lumped into a pair of districts.
As a consequence, Reps. Edward Derwinski and Robert McClory were retired, and one of the districts was drawn to be so competitive that it eventually went from Republican to Democratic representation.
Instead of the equal division of House seats in 1982, Democrats now have a 14-8 advantage in the delegation on Capitol Hill. Similarly, a new map helped Democrats gain control of the Illinois House and maintain a majority in the state Senate. Blacks and Hispanics were able to gain additional power in the legislature and Chicago City Council.
Democratic remap-maker Gary LaPaille said he doubts the accuracy of early projections that Illinois will lose two congressional seats for the second decade in a row. He noted that while Illinois` estimated 2 percent growth rate to 11.6 million did not keep up with the national rate of 10 percent, it exceeded the Midwest average of 1.8 percent.
Suburban Chicago, especially Du Page County and northwest Cook County, grew the most, while central Illinois and Chicago`s inner-city experienced the sharpest population declines, census estimates show.
``It`s early to say what could happen politically,`` LaPaille maintained. ``Two factors will decide. First, we`ll get a clearer picture about where the population is based on final numbers next April. Second, and probably even more important, will be who the players are after the November election.``
If Democratic Atty. Gen. Neil Hartigan is elected governor and Democrats retain legislative control, LaPaille, the party`s new state chairman, House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) and Senate President Philip Rock (D-Oak Park) will have carte blanche to draw the maps. If Republican Secretary of State Jim Edgar wins the governorship, the remaps will have to be negotiated. Following are some of the political stakes in congressional, legislative and Chicago City Council reapportionment:
- Congress. A loss of two U.S. House seats would drop Illinois to 20 members.
The GOP hopes to stop its hemorrhaging as the districts with any substantial growth are those represented by suburban Republicans John Porter, Philip Crane, Harris Fawell and J. Dennis Hastert. Four Chicago-based Democratic districts have lost population, as have the central Illinois districts of House GOP Leader Robert Michel of Peoria and Democrat Lane Evans of Moline.
Democratic mapmakers are under intense political pressure not to eliminate any of Chicago`s three black members of Congress. And they are being lobbied to create a district that could elect the state`s first Hispanic member.
Options include squeezing three Chicago Democratic elder statesmen-House Ways and Means Chairman Dan Rostenkowski, Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Sidney Yates and Banking Subcommittee Chairman Frank Annunzio-into one or two districts; radiating the Chicago districts farther into the suburbs and combining conservative Republican spokesman Henry Hyde`s district with one of the high-growth districts; and squeezing Michel and Evans into the same district.
- Legislature. Du Page County has grown tremendously-accounting for half of the projected state population increase since 1980-as other outlying, Republican-leaning suburban areas have burgeoned, and the inner-ring suburbs and Chicago have remained static or declined.
Two powerful Du Page Republicans, Senate Minority Leader James ``Pate``
Philip of Wood Dale and House Minority Leader Lee Daniels of Elmhurst, argue that the county is in line to add seats. Similar growth trends were in play a decade ago, yet Democrats have built an ironclad 61-57 majority in the House and protected a 31-28 edge in the Senate.
The objective of Republicans will be to undermine the half-dozen or so