WATCH "Surving the Storm"
A couple of fronts, surface troughs & upper lows are over the Central Atlantic producing clusters & bands of heavy showers & t'storms but no tropical development is evident nor is expected.
However, I continue to keep a close eye on the far Southwest & Western Gulf of Mexico where disorganized but heavy thunderstorms continue to fester over the warm & early season-favored areas east of Mexico & south of Texas. Strong upper level high pressure over or near Florida - a mainstay of a good part of the spring - will keep the disturbance on a N/NW track toward Mexico. It's possible a tropical depression could form prior to approach to land Wed. The system - depression or not - will bring some heavy rain to South Texas. Proximity to land should limit overall development, so it's flooding that will be the primary concern - especially along the coast of Mexico reaching northward toward Texas & eventually Louisiana.
There will be NO direct impact on Jacksonville or any of Fl. but some mid & upper level tropical moisture could spread eastward over the area by Fri. into the weekend enhancing showers & t'storms.
2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May. Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):
Seasonal forecasts from NOAA & Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University:
Graph below courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach - U.S. - landfalling U.S. hurricnes by month strongly favoring August, September & October:
And there's good news with the hurricane forecast cone - it's narrowing because of more accurate forecasts. The cone is often times confused with the size & forecast danger area of the tropical cyclone. In reality, all the cone represents is the potential forecast track error. More * here *. Map below tweeted by @BMcNoldy (Brian McNoldy):
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin.....
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf: