HYDROGEN 4 EU
Charting pathways to enable net zero
The Hydrogen for Europe study is the result of a cross-sectoral, technology neutral research project charting potential pathways for hydrogen to contribute to the EU’s goal of net zero GHG emissions. Applying innovative and proven modelling, the study supports the realisation of EU targets for 2030 and 2050 by assessing which mix of hydrogen technologies can best contribute to the EU’s current and future energy landscape – and what support is needed to enable this.
Hydrogen plays a key role in unlocking renewable energy integration.
European hydrogen production and use can grow dramatically, with both low-carbon and renewable hydrogen necessary to enable a fast, lower risk and more cost effective pathway to net zero. A mix of hydrogen types will be needed regardless of the policy path chosen.
Ambitious decarbonisation targets raise European hydrogen demand up to three times higher than the EU's Hydrogen Strategy objectives.
A stronger renewable push represents a total system cost of an additional 70 billion per year compared to a technology diversity scenario.
The uptake of both renewable and low-carbon hydrogen requires the simultaneous development across the value chain, with policy support required to spur the investments needed to unlock hydrogen’s full potential.
The development of the hydrogen value chain relies on a dedicated energy
infrastructure that includes transport and distribution of hydrogen, storage
and refuelling options, and connects supply and demand.
TWO POLICY PATHWAYS
The Technology Diversification Pathway is based on already approved national targets and assumes no obstacles to the deployment of different technologies, as well as perfect market foresight on investment decisions. This pathway considers an array of decarbonisation technologies, deployed as needed, which allows for the de-risking of investments through the creation of a more competitive and efficient zero carbon energy system.
The Renewable Push Pathway prioritises the deployment of renewable energy through increased targets (beyond current policy goals) on the share of renewable in gross final energy consumption by 2050. While this pathway does not result in significant changes in consumption patterns, it sees a key role for hydrogen in helping to absorb, store, and transport the additional energy resulting from higher renewables generation. Results for each pathway are generated using three scientific models considering system lifecycle (MIRET-EU), costs and investments (Integrate Europe) as well as external competition (Hydrogen Pathway Exploration).
Driven by policy, demand for hydrogen could exceed 100 million tons (Mt) of H2
More than half of total gross final energy consumption will be supplied by non-electrified technologies in 2050, such as low-carbon hydrogen and biomass.
Nearly 15% of the hydrogen needed in the transition to net-zero emissions could be imported from outside Europe.
The MIRET-EU model encompasses the entire lifecycle of an energy system, from primary resource to utilisation. This model is well suited to help decision makers as it provides data over medium to long-term time horizons and can easily contribute to energy roadmaps by providing clear information on technologies and fuels in all sectors based on data and actual knowledge. This model allows for great flexibility, it can take environmental emissions into account, as well as almost all policies at all levels.
Integrate Europe is a cost-minimisation and investment optimisation model for energy-systems that brings available energy to users in the best economic way possible while complying with environmental targets. This model promotes early investment in promising technologies, even if they are not competitive yet in the market, as it recognises that this is key to driving costs down.
HYDROGEN PATHWAY EXPLORATION
HyPE provides the MIRET-EU and Integrate Europe models with low-carbon and renewable hydrogen imports from EU neighbours. This model represents competition between domestically produce hydrogen and imports and is in line with the EU hydrogen strategy, which focuses on clean hydrogen trade and highlights the potential partnership with Southern and Eastern Neighbourhood countries.