Average Weather in January in Mancelona Michigan, United States
In Mancelona, the month of January is characterized by essentially constant daily high temperatures, with daily highs around 26°F throughout the month, rarely exceeding 39°F or dropping below 11°F. The lowest daily average high temperature is 25°F on January 22.
Daily low temperatures decrease by 4°F, from 15°F to 11°F, rarely falling below -5°F or exceeding 29°F. The lowest daily average low temperature is 11°F on January 29.
For reference, on July 19, the hottest day of the year, temperatures in Mancelona typically range from 57°F to 79°F, while on January 29, the coldest day of the year, they range from 11°F to 25°F.
The figure below shows you a compact characterization of the hourly average temperatures for the quarter of the year centered on January. The horizontal axis is the day, the vertical axis is the hour of the day, and the color is the average temperature for that hour and day.
Average Hourly Temperature in January
The month of January in Mancelona experiences essentially constant cloud cover, with the percentage of time that the sky is overcast or mostly cloudy remaining about 77% throughout the month. The highest chance of overcast or mostly cloudy conditions is 78% on January 11.
The clearest day of the month is January 30, with clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy conditions 24% of the time.
For reference, on January 11, the cloudiest day of the year, the chance of overcast or mostly cloudy conditions is 78%, while on August 8, the clearest day of the year, the chance of clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy skies is 67%.
Cloud Cover Categories in January
A wet day is one with at least 0.04 inches of liquid or liquid-equivalent precipitation. In Mancelona, the chance of a wet day over the course of January is decreasing, starting the month at 22% and ending it at 16%.
For reference, the year's highest daily chance of a wet day is 36% on September 22, and its lowest chance is 15% on February 4.
Over the course of January in Mancelona, the chance of a day with only rain remains an essentially constant 3% throughout, the chance of a day with mixed snow and rain remains an essentially constant 3% throughout, and the chance of a day with only snow decreases from 15% to 12%.
Probability of Precipitation in January
To show variation within the month and not just the monthly total, we show the rainfall accumulated over a sliding 31-day period centered around each day.
The average sliding 31-day rainfall during January in Mancelona is essentially constant, remaining about 0.4 inches throughout, and rarely exceeding 1.2 inches.
Average Monthly Rainfall in January
We report snowfall in liquid-equivalent terms. The actual depth of new snowfall is typically between 5 and 10 times the liquid-equivalent amount, assuming the ground is frozen. As with rainfall, we consider the liquid-equivalent snowfall accumulated over a sliding 31-day period centered around each day.
The average sliding 31-day liquid-equivalent snowfall during January in Mancelona is essentially constant, remaining about 0.7 inches throughout, and rarely exceeding 1.4 inches or falling below 0.2 inches.
The highest average 31-day liquid-equivalent accumulation is 0.8 inches on January 3.
Average Monthly Liquid-Equivalent Snowfall in January
Over the course of January in Mancelona, the length of the day is increasing. From the start to the end of the month, the length of the day increases by 55 minutes, implying an average daily increase of 1 minute, 50 seconds, and weekly increase of 12 minutes, 50 seconds.
The shortest day of the month is January 1, with 8 hours, 52 minutes of daylight and the longest day is January 31, with 9 hours, 47 minutes of daylight.
Hours of Daylight and Twilight in January
The latest sunrise of the month in Mancelona is 8:18 AM on January 1 and the earliest sunrise is 18 minutes earlier at 8:00 AM on January 31.
The earliest sunset is 5:10 PM on January 1 and the latest sunset is 37 minutes later at 5:47 PM on January 31.
Daylight saving time is observed in Mancelona during 2017, but it neither starts nor ends during January, so the entire month is in standard time.
For reference, on June 21, the longest day of the year, the Sun rises at 5:53 AM and sets 15 hours, 36 minutes later, at 9:30 PM, while on December 21, the shortest day of the year, it rises at 8:15 AM and sets 8 hours, 47 minutes later, at 5:01 PM.
We base the humidity comfort level on the dew point, as it determines whether perspiration will evaporate from the skin, thereby cooling the body. Lower dew points feel drier and higher dew points feel more humid. Unlike temperature, which typically varies significantly between night and day, dew point tends to change more slowly, so while the temperature may drop at night, a muggy day is typically followed by a muggy night.
The chance that a given day will be muggy in Mancelona is essentially constant during January, remaining around 0% throughout.
For reference, on July 30, the muggiest day of the year, there are muggy conditions 16% of the time, while on November 16, the least muggy day of the year, there are muggy conditions 0% of the time.
This section discusses the wide-area hourly average wind vector (speed and direction) at 10 meters above the ground. The wind experienced at any given location is highly dependent on local topography and other factors, and instantaneous wind speed and direction vary more widely than hourly averages.
The average hourly wind speed in Mancelona is essentially constant during January, remaining within 0.1 miles per hour of 12.2 miles per hour throughout.
For reference, on January 13, the windiest day of the year, the daily average wind speed is 12.3 miles per hour, while on August 3, the calmest day of the year, the daily average wind speed is 8.1 miles per hour.
The highest daily average wind speed during January is 12.3 miles per hour on January 14.
Average Wind Speed in January
Wind Direction in January
Mancelona is located near a large body of water (e.g., ocean, sea, or large lake). This section reports on the wide-area average surface temperature of that water.
The average surface water temperature in Mancelona is gradually decreasing during January, falling by 3°F, from 39°F to 36°F, over the course of the month.
Average Water Temperature in January
This section discusses the total daily incident shortwave solar energy reaching the surface of the ground over a wide area, taking full account of seasonal variations in the length of the day, the elevation of the Sun above the horizon, and absorption by clouds and other atmospheric constituents. Shortwave radiation includes visible light and ultraviolet radiation.
The average daily incident shortwave solar energy in Mancelona is gradually increasing during January, rising by 0.6 kWh, from 1.2 kWh to 1.7 kWh, over the course of the month.
Average Daily Incident Shortwave Solar Energy in January
For the purposes of this report, the geographical coordinates of Mancelona are 44.902 deg latitude, -85.061 deg longitude, and 1,132 ft elevation.
The topography within 2 miles of Mancelona contains only modest variations in elevation, with a maximum elevation change of 315 feet and an average elevation above sea level of 1,158 feet. Within 10 miles contains only modest variations in elevation (883 feet). Within 50 miles also contains very significant variations in elevation (1,234 feet).
The area within 2 miles of Mancelona is covered by cropland (35%), grassland (28%), and trees (28%), within 10 miles by trees (77%), and within 50 miles by trees (56%) and water (22%).
This report illustrates the typical weather in Mancelona year round, based on a statistical analysis of historical hourly weather reports and model reconstructions from January 1, 1980 to December 31, 2016.
Temperature and Dew Point
There are 3 weather stations near enough to contribute to our estimation of the temperature and dew point in Mancelona.
For each station, the records are corrected for the elevation difference between that station and Mancelona according to the International Standard Atmosphere , and by the relative change present in the MERRA-2 satellite-era reanalysis between the two locations.
The estimated value at Mancelona is computed as the weighted average of the individual contributions from each station, with weights proportional to the inverse of the distance between Mancelona and a given station.
The stations contributing to this reconstruction are: Antrim County Airport (50%, 15 kilometers, northwest); Gaylord Regional Airport (28%, 31 kilometers, northeast); and Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield (23%, 36 kilometers, southeast).
All data relating to the Sun's position (e.g., sunrise and sunset) are computed using astronomical formulas from the book, Astronomical Tables of the Sun, Moon and Planets , by Jean Meeus.
All other weather data, including cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and direction, and solar flux, come from NASA's MERRA-2 Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis . This reanalysis combines a variety of wide-area measurements in a state-of-the-art global meteorological model to reconstruct the hourly history of weather throughout the world on a 50-kilometer grid.
We draw particular cautious attention to our reliance on the MERRA-2 model-based reconstructions for a number of important data series. While having the tremendous advantages of temporal and spatial completeness, these reconstructions: (1) are based on computer models that may have model-based errors, (2) are coarsely sampled on a 50 km grid and are therefore unable to reconstruct the local variations of many microclimates, and (3) have particular difficulty with the weather in some coastal areas, especially small islands.