The popularity of netbook computers helped carry the PC industry through the recession, but industry analysts believe the scaled-down laptops will soon be overtaken by a wave of iPads and other tablet devices.
Tablet computers will outsell netbooks in the United States by 2012, according to a report last month by Forrester Research, which also predicted that 23 percent of personal computers sold to U.S. consumers will be tablets by 2015.
The report echoes earlier projections from other leading research firms, which have suggested that sales are beginning to slow for netbooks, also known as mini-notebooks or mini-notes. Meanwhile, Apple has reported selling 2 million iPads in the first two months after the product was introduced.
Hewlett-Packard, Dell and other leading computer manufacturers are all rushing to introduce their own iPad-style tablets, which some in the industry refer to as "slate" computers. HP had planned to launch a Windows-based tablet this summer, but has recently emphasized plans to use software from Palm, the smart phone maker that HP is in the process of acquiring.
This week, Cisco Systems became the latest company to wade into the tablet market, launching a device aimed at business customers. It is pitching its Cius, a 7-inch tablet based on Google's Android operating system that will work over short-range Wi-Fi and high-speed mobile wireless networks, as a collaboration and communication device for enterprises.
Most tablets have so far been aimed at consumers.
As more computer makers begin to introduce their own tablets in the coming months, an NPD Group report predicted that consumers will increasingly turn away from netbooks.
Lower-priced netbooks, which have smaller screens and keyboards than traditional laptop computers, have been popular since their introduction in 2008. The Gartner Inc. research firm reported more than 32 million netbooks were sold worldwide last year.
Analysts say the strong demand for netbooks helped major PC manufacturers maintain their sales volume through the economic downturn — when some customers shied away from buying higher-priced desktop and laptop models — although some netbooks provided a lower profit margin than full-size models.
But netbooks generally offered less processing power and fewer features than traditional notebook computers. Netbook sales have started to show signs of slowing in some regions, "as consumers begin to understand the limitations of mini-notebooks, especially in the face of aggressive price cuts of regular notebooks," Gartner researcher Mikako Kitagawa said in a report.
Tablet computers, meanwhile, offer consumers a different model for computing, according to NPD. Instead of a scaled-down netbook that attempts to mimic the complete operation of a traditional laptop or desktop computer, NPD researcher John Jacobs said that tablets based on Apple or Android operating systems allow consumers to choose from an a la carte menu of software applications, designed to perform specific functions.
Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps estimates about 3.5 million tablet devices will be sold in the United States this year, but her report predicts that number will skyrocket to 20.4 million by 2015. She estimates that desktop sales will decline over that time, falling from 18.7 million units sold in 2010 to 15.7 million in 2015.