When U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to pull the United States out of the Paris climate accord earlier this year, people across the world who had painstakingly negotiated the treaty two years ago, collectively held their breath. Could the agreement survive the U.S. retreat? Would others follow?
As it turns out, nobody did. China doubled-down on its commitment to climate action, and even some waverers like Saudi Arabia and Russia have stood firm. Now that it is clear the agreement will go ahead as planned, even without the U.S., representatives of all the world’s governments are traveling to Bonn, Germany for a two-week summit to hash out the details of how the agreement will work.
Despite the loyalty to the accord, there is still much uncertainty going into the Bonn talks. What role will the U.S. be allowed to play while it is a signatory with the intention to leave? Will China emerge as the EU’s preferred partner for climate action? And can the rules of the international emissions reduction system be agreed in time?
Confidence in the accord
Asked whether other countries will follow the U.S. out of the accord, 65 percent of respondents said they expect all of the remaining countries to stay committed. 16 percent said that one to three countries might leave, while 11 percent said up to ten could leave.
“I actually do not believe the U.S. will really leave the Paris Agreement. They have to wait another three years before they can do so,” said one respondent.
Graph: In 2017, the U.S. chose to leave the Paris Agreement. Do you believe other countries will leave?
However, another said they doubt that all countries will agree to participate when they see the world’s biggest historical contributor to climate change doing nothing: “Poor countries are not ready to make efforts when they see that rich countries do not make efforts.”
Other respondents disputed the idea that the U.S. will do nothing. Asked how much American cities and states can make up for the lack of federal climate action, 40 percent said they can meet the majority of the target agreed by Barack Obama in 2015. 21 percent said regions could even meet the entire commitment. Only four percent said regional action can make no difference without federal support.
“Poor countries are not ready to make efforts when they see that rich countries do not make efforts.”
“There is enough consensus on climate change at city and state level to limit the effects of US withdrawal,” said one respondent.
China to the fore
Readers indicated that they predict China will replace the U.S. as the EU’s main partner for fighting climate change. 44 percent said they believe China will become the world’s climate leader. Germany and the Scandinavian countries were also predicted to be future climate leaders by roughly the same number of respondents.
“As a Communist country, when the Chinese government gives instructions to its country, they are fulfilled,” said one respondent. “China is becoming more aware of environmental issues, and changing a lot things.”
The United States wasn’t the only country seen to be abandoning climate leadership. Only six percent of respondents saw the U.K. becoming a global leader on climate change.
Is it achievable?
Despite these predictions, the survey wasn’t full of confidence. Perhaps the reason people believe that countries will not pull out of the Paris Accord is because they don’t believe the accord will bind them to act.
Only 39 percent of respondents expect the targets of the Paris agreement to be met.
“There are lots of promising signs, but unless there is a dramatic political or technological breakthrough, targeted objectives are too tough to meet,” said one. “There are too many uncertainties regarding the main emitters — America and China — and no solid expectations about Africa’s growth path,” said another.
“Only 39 percent of respondents expect the targets of the Paris agreement to be met.”
“The ambitions of Paris Agreement were set very high,” one respondent concluded. “I expect the deadlines to be postponed but eventually, in the long-term, we will probably get there.”
It isn’t just government inaction. A lack of commitment from individuals will make the targets difficult to meet, respondents said. Asked what the biggest block is for people tackling climate change on an individual level, 44 percent said people do not want to change their lifestyles. Only six percent believe that people don’t know how they can contribute.
This is all despite the fact that people generally believe that climate change is real — only five percent said the problem is that people don’t believe it exists.
What to do in Bonn
There are a lot of issues to be tackled in Bonn, and delegates may feel overwhelmed. Asked what the summit should focus on, 41 percent said they should develop ways to promote technologies that encourage the energy transition. Only six percent believe the summit should focus on measuring the progress of countries since Paris was agreed two years ago.
“The most urgent matter is removing barriers to the energy transition,” said one.
When asked which mechanisms countries should introduce to help them reach their Paris goals, respondents were fairly evenly split. The highest number, 26 percent, said countries should put in place emissions performance standards. 21 percent were in favor of global carbon markets, while 14 percent wanted a carbon tax on industries. Only two percent wanted a carbon tax on individuals.
There is a lot to be done in Bonn. But will the delegates be able to make progress? Energy Visions will be analyzing the results of the summit at a event in Brussels on November 23. There, it will be clearer whether some of the predictions made by the Energy Visions community are coming true or not.
This piece features highlights of the third 2017 Energy Visions survey. The full survey results can be found here.