There is a seemingly limitless number of variables in life, but a limited number of outcomes. While not all roads lead to Rome, a number of them ultimately do, though they may diverge and meander along the way. Sometimes a few votes in Florida decide a Presidential election, or a few Supreme Court Justices, or Ralph Nader, or maybe it was Monica Lewinsky. Sometimes different choices made at critical moments lead to the same result, and sometimes they make all the difference.
This is what I find so fascinating about history. Given the choices made and his personal qualities and liabilities, it is doubtful that Nathan Hale would have been a more successful spy had he not encountered such a ruthless adversary as Robert Rogers. On the other hand, what is the likelihood that the Republic of Vermont might have willfully allied with British Canada during the latter part of the Revolution? Ethan Allen made overtures and Washington was well aware that Vermont was wavering. Had the British treated him less harshly as a prisoner, or had his brother Ira (arguably the brains of the Allen bunch), been more actively involved in negotiations, the 14th State might well have given Canada 14 provinces and territories. Or maybe they would have lost it again in the War of 1812. Many paths to the same outcome.
It is popular today to speak of tipping points (and "Perfect Storms" as well, but that is a different story), where the cumulative weight of choices and events shift the balance of history. Since we are now, metaphorically at least, in the realm of physics, it bears notice that the amount of force required to use a lever depends on the location of the fulcrum. The degree to which the fulcrum has fixed constraints may limit the choices available to individuals and institutions, but often it can be shifted, even under the most unlikely circumstances. Add to this the challenge of making choices under pressure with limited information, and the balance may shift in remarkable ways.
When I was a mountaineer, I learned that there are threats for which you can plan and prevent and those you cannot for which you need to react to minimize their impacts. Washington's "Dunkirk style" boat lift to safety after the Battle of Long Island was aided by fog, as his attack on Trenton was assisted by sleet. Yet Arnold and Montgomery's assault on Quebec in a raging winter storm failed despite these conditions, and bad weather may have provided General Howe with the excuse he needed to evacuate Boston with honor rather than assault the newly fortified artillery positions on Dorchester Heights that had been left undefended by the British throughout the siege.
These leaders could not control the weather but only use what they had to best advantage. It is these human qualities that shape the choices we make and what we perceive our options to be. We are all of us social actors, but whether we fret and strut our hour on the stage or find a way forward is determined both by what we have to work with and how we perceive our ability to choose, and act.