No one knows how many people have died in the war that has engulfed the Democratic Republic of Congo. Some estimates put the number as high as hundreds of thousands. But there is reason to hope the vast Central African nation formerly known as Zaire has seen the worst of the fighting.
Slowly and cautiously, some of the seven African armies, three rebels groups and various militias ensnared in what diplomats call Africa's First World War have started pulling their troops back from the chaotic front lines.
This is welcome news and a tribute to the persistence of United Nations, African and U.S. diplomacy. But it's only a beginning. It can't even be called conflict resolution so much as conflict management. Yet it lowers the level of hostilities and paves the way for the two key ingredients in any solution: a future withdrawal of forces and a return to dialogue among the warring parties.
It was the assassination of Congo's late President Laurent Kabila in January that provoked movement toward peace. Kabila was succeeded as president by his young son, Joseph, who helped break the logjam that has prevented progress in stopping Congo's civil war.
That change of tone was predictable. The war started in 1998 when Uganda and Rwanda, backed by Burundi, sent troops into Congo to support rebels fighting to oust the elder Kabila. The three countries accused him of sheltering armed movements that threatened the security of neighboring nations. Kabila was quickly propped up with the support of troops from Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe, which were enticed by promises of Congo mining contracts. More than 2 million people were displaced from their homes in the subsequent fighting.
Laurent Kabila was long seen as the main obstacle to peace. With his passing, UN peacekeepers who had waited more than a year to step in have finally started to do just that. Under Kabila, there was no peace to keep. Now there could be.
That Joseph Kabila has managed to stay in power is itself surprising, but it's evidence of the crucial support given him by Angolan forces. He sacked his entire cabinet Wednesday in an effort to improve management of economic and social crises aggravated by the war. He strongly advocates peace, even though he won't join a dialogue until foreign forces opposing him withdraw.
The UN is supervising a disengagement agreement that bore fruit in recent weeks, with all but some Congolese rebels pulling back as promised from the front lines in key battle zones. Most significant was the withdrawal Tuesday of 200 troops by Zimbabwe--Kabila's ally--from the town of Mbandaka, far northeast of the Congolese capital, Kinshasa. Zimbabwe still has over 10,000 troops in the country, but it's a start. Uganda also has said it will withdraw its troops.
Soldiers from Uruguay arrived over the weekend, the first armed UN soldiers to arrive in rebel territory, and UN troops from Senegal were to arrive Wednesday to deploy behind government lines. They are among 2,500 UN peacekeepers expected to protect 500 unarmed observers assigned to monitor a ceasefire.
After far too much bloodshed, this could be the beginning of the end of Congo's war.