A recent DNA study has gotten some attention, both on our sidebar and in a post by J. Nelson-Seawright at By Common Consent. The Mormon question that inevitably comes up from such a study is does it cast any light on the question of whether Lehi really landed in the Americas long ago? J. Nelson-Seawright discusses some possible ramifications if the study (or ones like it) do matter. Let me make clear that, for those who think Lehi landed in an already populated America, this study is basically irrelevant.
The research in question involves testing about a thousand people for a certain genetic marker that tracks at least some part of one’s ancestry back to Asia (more or less). Not finding the marker does not show you weren’t from Asia, and, as best I can tell, having the marker does not rule out some non-Asian ancestry — just points out at least one line that isn’t. In any case, the marker is located in about a third of the population sampled.
SO THE BOOK OF MORMON IS A LIE!
No. No. No. Just kidding there. But I imagine some will argue that this study bolsters the case, at least a little bit, that there were no Lehites. Which is also pretty much wrong.
Consider the following scenario. Suppose I think L fraction of the native American genetic code is Lehitish (however you define that), M fraction has the genetic Marker discussed above, and NLNM fraction is not Lehitish, but has no Marker.
Now turn to the study in question. They tested 900 people from various Native American populations and found that a third of them carried DNA linking them to Asia, but had nothing to say about the other two thirds. So M is about 1/3. Now, the first big big big BIG problem is if there is nothing that says the Lehites could not have long since picked up that American/Asian marker from the natives in their 2600 years here. If so, it is hard to see how the evidence could be more irrelevant.
But let’s forge ahead for fun. Suppose that having the marker definitely, completely, and truly ruled out that one had Lehite ancestry (even though it doesn’t). From the above work, we estimate tha M=1/3, and so 1/3 is definitely not L (for Lehite) or NLNM (for Non-Lehite Non-Marker). So, quick question, what is our best guess of L? I’ll help you out:
L + M + NLNM =1 (the fractions sum to the total population)
M=1/3 (information from the study)
Got it? You have two equations and three unknowns. In econometrics, this would be called a case of unidentified parameters. You know that NLNM + L = 2/3, but there are an infinite number of values that make that true, and assuming you didn’t think Lehites made up more than 2/3 of the population, the study has no impact on your prior beliefs. This is without even scratching the surface on the other problems you’d run into trying to make a case from this that Lehites never landed in America.
So in summary, this study vaguely looks like it should be relevant to the Lehite question. But, unless you thought Native Americans were overwhelmingly Lehite in ancestry, it is about as informative as the fact that I had pizza for lunch.
Yummy yummy, pizza.