If this winter’s extreme cold and snow cover haven’t created enough problems for Macomb County residents, with the turn of the calendar there will be a new problem.
The snowiest January since 1874 in the Detroit area has smothered the tri-county in a winter blanket, and Mother Nature has yet to pull back the covers.
The extraordinary snowfall, 70 inches to date for the season, combined with extremely cold temperatures in 2014, has meant January’s snow is still here, covered with the additional accumulation in February. According to the National Weather Service, the average snow pack in Macomb County as of Feb. 12 was 14 inches. That contains 4-5 inches of water, which, depending upon the rate of snow melt, can cause dangerous flooding concerns.
“I don’t recall having this much water in the snow pack in quite some time, at least since I started working here in 1995,” said Danny Costello, a meteorologist and hydrologist with the National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac office located in White Lake. “It’s been higher for a longer time than previous years. It’s been collecting and not releasing. Low lying areas should start preparing now, because once that snow melts, it’s not going anywhere quick.”
By comparison, Costello said the tri-county area’s wettest month is usually June, with an average of about four inches of rainfall. With the snow melt, the potential is there for the wettest month this year to be March or April. The extraordinary cold has meant greater ice thickness on rivers and streams, so when that begins to break up, larger and heavier chunks have the potential to cause more erosion along shorelines and undercut trees, dumping them into the waterways. Bridge supports could be damaged and ice jams could develop in front of bridges or in sharp bends in waterways.
The usual suspect locations along the Clinton River and its branches and feeder streams that flood in a typical spring will be even more susceptible to flooding this year, and with more devastating results. The key to any flooding concerns will be how fast the melt takes place. Having a series of days where the temperature hovers just above freezing will be much better than several consecutive days in the 40s or higher.
Costello added the best-case scenario this spring “would be sunny, windy, warm days above freezing with dry air. You get more sublimation. The snow just goes from solid to gas,” Costello said. Cool temperatures at night that slow the melting process are also preferred, he said.
Temperatures for next week in Macomb County are expected to rise, with forecasters calling for a high of 29 degrees on Monday, the high 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the low 40s for the rest of the week.
Vicki Wolber, the director of emergency management and communications for Macomb County, said those temperatures at the start of the week are good conditions to have a gradual snow melt, provided they don’t come with additional rainfall. Typical areas of concern include North Avenue and 21 Mile Road, an entire stretch of 21 Mile Road north of North Avenue, 23 Mile and 24 Mile roads and North Avenue, and 22 Mile Road east of Romeo Plank. She added large tracts of land such as Budd Park in Clinton Township, Dodge Park in Sterling Heights and area golf courses around the Clinton River watershed will typically flood in the spring, but they are built to handle it. She warned subdivisions in those areas in particular and the rest of the county in general need to take the normal spring precautions, such as making sure sump pumps are in good working order as are backup sump pumps. She also suggested property owners make sure catch basins in the streets in front of homes and businesses are uncovered and free of debris. And everyone should be aware of updates, such as boil water emergencies or bulletins to evacuate homes.
“Most people, if they have lived in their houses for a while, are aware of what happens, but there is certainly a potential for greater concern this year,” Wolber said. “Macomb County is prone to flooding, and that is one of our main concerns.”
Wolber recalled that as recently as 2004, Macomb County had a flooding incident in which it received federal and governor disaster declarations, when 2-6 inches of rain fell over a 36-hour period in May. According to the Michigan Hazard Analysis report prepared in 2012 by the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Division, backyards were submerged under several feet of water. About 100 homes in Macomb County, primarily in the Utica area, had damage of about $100,000 each. Road and bridge damage was expected to cost $10 million to repair. While that weather event was caused by rain and not a snow melt, it gives some indication as to what could happen if the snow pack were to melt quickly.
Residents along Patnick Road in Macomb Township, located near North Avenue and 21 Mile Road, are veterans of the annual spring thaw and flooding concerns since they are located so close to the Clinton River. In 2004, the flooding damaged four houses on the west side of the road, which had to be torn down due to mildew accumulation.
“We’re all concerned, but I wouldn’t say we are worried,” said Carol Hosler, a Patnick resident for 27 years. Housler, who lives on a crawl space, recalled in 2004 water came right to the top of her deck on the front of her house and was in the garage as well. She blames additional development in the area for the flooding problems. The property to the west of her and across the street where the damaged houses once existed had previously been farmland.
Gigi Gorde, who has lived on Patnick since 1972, said there has been bad flooding on her street about four times in 40 years, the worst in 2004 when water came up to her car on the driveway. One of the doomed houses across the street had water up to the windows. She estimates her home is about 300 yards from the Clinton River.
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The National Weather Service has two advanced hydrological monitoring sites in Macomb County: one near Garfield south of Clinton River Road, and the second near Hall Road west of Elizabeth. A conditional simulation, based upon data as of Jan. 20, indicates the Clinton River at the Garfield location has about a 30 percent of reaching flood stage (16 feet), but about a 90 percent chance of reaching “action stage” (14 feet). The depth at that location as of Friday sits at 6.1 feet. The NWS describes the action stage as a level where mitigation action may be required, such as sandbagging or elevating items off the ground. During tornado conditions, it could be compared to a tornado watch, the NWS said. At the second location near Hall Road, the river has about a 25 percent chance of reaching flood stage (15 feet) and 35 percent chance of reaching action stage. The river depth at that location is 4.66 feet.
Costello said a more complete and updated flood outlook will be coming out of the NWS office Feb. 20.
According to Jeremy Geist, an ecologist at the Clinton River Watershed Council, communities along the river, such as Sterling Heights, Clinton, Macomb and Shelby townships, and Utica and Mount Clemens are most susceptible to flooding due to their urban development; Utica and Mount Clemens more so because they are downriver, more developed, and sit along a wider section of the river. More development means more concrete, more asphalt and less natural spaces for the snow melt to get absorbed by the ground and slowly discharged into the river system. When there is a surge of rainfall or snow melt in those communities, the river levels elevate very fast and flooding issues soon follow.
“I like to compare it to the Au Sable River (near Graying and Mio). The Au Sable is surrounded by acres and acres of undeveloped forest. So when it rains or the snow melts, it is absorbed into the ground and is slowly released into the river as groundwater,” he said. “The Au Sable has a pretty consistent water level year-round. Even if there is a dry spring, you still have groundwater draining into the river.”
Costello said the frost level in southeast Michigan is currently two feet deep. That means it will take the ground some time to thaw before it can begin absorbing melting snow. Low-lying areas can expect a lot of standing water once the snow does begin to melt.
“People in low-lying areas should elevate stuff in their basements now,” he said. “Don’t wait until the last minute.”
Richard Sulaka, deputy public works commissioner for Macomb County said the county has one of the better drainage systems in the state. He expects that system should be able to handle the snow melt, providing there isn’t much additional rainfall during the melt process.
“Obviously, a concern is always present, and there are things we can’t control,” Sulaka said. “But the system should be able to handle it, provided there isn’t much additional rain.”
Sulaka also asked residents to keep the catch basins near their homes free of snow and other debris and advised against using sand to provide traction either on the driveway or near the home since it will ultimately be washed away and clog up the drainage system.