A United Nations report released on Monday says falling fertility rates around the world will reverse human population growth by 2100, even though India will account for nearly half of estimated population growth by 2050.
The study, which shows a steady decline in global birth rates from 3.2 births in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, is expected to drop to 2.2 by 2050. In India, the numbers are a bit different, s ‘rising to 2.24 in total according to the report. By 2050, the country’s birth rate will be 1.86 according to the estimate of the medium variant. The country is expected to add 273 more people to the population by 2050. In contrast, China’s current birth rate stands at 2.1 and the country’s population is expected to grow from 1.433 billion in 2019 to 1.402 billion in 2050. At the same time, India’s population is expected to reach 1.639 billion.
According to Professor CM Lakshmana, head of the Center for Population Research in Bangalore, the decline in the birth rate in India is not more pronounced due to higher birth rates in some Indian states than in others. Data from India’s Sample Registration System (SRS) show that while the total fertility rate in rural areas fell from 5.4 births in 1971 to 2.5 in 2016; in urban areas, the rate fell from 4.1 to 1.8 over the same period.
“States with low literacy and economic rates, such as those of the Economic Empowerment Group (EEG), including Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, account for nearly three-quarters of the people in India, ”he said.
Bengaluru-based fertility consultant Dr Mahesh Koregol blamed late marriages, delayed conception, increased emphasis on education and careers to be responsible for lowering rates around the world.
“Even in rural areas of India, people marry later and have children at an older age, which is contributing to declining birth rates in several states,” said Dr Koregol.
Prof Lakshmana said the implications of the continued growth of India’s population are significant.
“The elderly population will increase, which means the country will have to put in place social security programs. At the same time, the “active population” (15-65 years) will become the majority and it will be necessary to create jobs for it “, he added.