Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday's open to Friday's close (October 1st to October 5th)?
Details: Last week's majority sentiment from the survey was 40.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.27% Lower for the week. This week's majority sentiment from the survey is 62.1% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 77 times in the previous 261 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 52% of the time, but with an average S&P500 move of 0.12% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 52% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
• It's a bull market!
• Bounce off of daily 20 period EMA & higher low.
• The S&P was in consolidation the previous week, which provides a good setup for a rise this week. Also, a nice GDP increase and good earnings expectations should help.
• Large volume trades show more selling. Low volume trades still show buying. I don't know whether "the top" is in yet, but I'm sure not going to buy the dips.
• Overbought markets. 3rd qtr ended – sellers should return.
• I try to keep position sizes of relatively the same size.
• Daily loss limit, weekly loss limit, # of stops per day.
• Position size, stops, market direction.
• Position sizing used with various strategies. All in all out also used depending on strategy used. Stops are very important and honoring them is critical in maintaining risk management.
• seasonality is against my answers.
• Is there a better and close too 100% certainty to read the market in the USA??