China has more than doubled its end-of-decade solar power target, with new installations dramatically outstripping expectation, according to the government's energy agency.
By the end of July this year, China's solar PV capacity topped 112GW, after installing a stunning 35GW in just seven months — more than twice as much as installed by any other country in all of 2016.
As a result, total solar PV capacity now exceeds the government's 2020 goal of 105GW, set as recently as last year.
This could have created a very confusing situation for the industry – after years of record-setting installations, there was no target to hit – but the National Energy Administration (NEA) responded by setting new, ambitious annual installation targets.
These targets would take capacity to 213GW in 2020 — which is five times larger than the current capacity of the United States.
That would mean covering an area of land equivalent to greater London – 1500km2 – with solar panels.
This would increase the country's cumulative wind power installation by 2020 to about 264 GW, far exceeding the original target of 210GW set during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
It's also considerably more than the total wind power capacity of all of Europe (and that's including the UK).
That's not all the new targets imply.
By 2020, China is aiming to build 54.5GW of large-scale solar projects — PV stations, and agriculture and husbandry combinations.
In addition, there will be 8GW of new showcase projects that use higher efficiency solar PV every year.
The new target reflects the huge potential for distributed solar — electricity that is produced at the same spot where it is used. Under the new regulation, there are no limitations on the installation of distributed renewables, meaning innovations like rooftop solar panels are on track to soar.
The astounding growth of wind and solar power in China means that the country is on track to generate Germany's total electricity consumption from these sources by 2020. Generation from wind and solar would amount to around 9% of China's own consumption, up from 5.2% last year.
China's wind and solar power sectors are still battling a huge curtailment crisis.
In the first half of 2017, the national wind curtailment rate stood at 13.6%, with solar curtailment in five northwest provinces at 15.5%.
The NEA's new targets, however, acknowledge the problem and take two key steps to tackle it.
This should have the effect of nudging these province's governments towards effectively utilizing the enormous capacity they have already installed.
And that will mean challenging coal's dominance in the energy mix.
That suggests China could, in fact, smash its own 2020 solar target. Again.
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