High school football state championship analysis, predictions
By Richard Obert, azcentral sports November 27, 2015 12:21 pm
By Richard Obert, azcentral sports | November 27, 2015 12:21 pm ET
Marcos de Niza's Shaun Richards celebrates after defeating Skyline during the Division II high school football state semifinals at Mountain View High school in Mesa on November 20, 2015.
Richard Obert breaks down the state championship games and gives his predictions:
DIVISION V
No. 1 Benson (13-0) vs. No. 2 Glendale Joy Christian (12-0)
When: 2 p.m. Saturday
Where: Scottsdale Chaparral
It comes down to whether or not Benson can slow down Joy Christian's offense, which has yet to be held to under 40 points. Benson will try to be the most physical team Joy Christian has seen. It will try to match up and adjust as Joy Christian could go spread or power it with a Wing T. Fullback Tyler Graham will be the strongest downhill runner Benson has faced. QB Matt Mitchell can run out of the spread and the Wing T, and he's got multiple options, including big-play receivers Dujuan Lawrence and Isaiah Goodspeed.
Benson has balance but prefers to run. Benson will have to try to run as much clock as it can every possession, because Joy Christian scores quickly. Mitchell has thrown 42 touchdowns passes and only two interceptions. Lawrence has been on the receiving end of 21 of those TDs. Benson doesn't have a player with more than 1,000 rushing yards, but Brandon Laird (786 yards) is averaging nearly 10 yards a carry in an offense that keeps backs fresh by subbing in and out. Keegan Graf has 600 rushing yards, averaging 9.0 yards a carry.
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Benson's defense is the key. It has been able to limit the big play this season, but it hasn't seen this kind of offense. It is going to have to be able to put pressure on Mitchell. With 28 sacks, Benson can apply good pressure. But Mitchell is elusive. He is as good as anybody in Division V at making something out of nothing.
Joy Christian coach Brian Cole is masterful in big games. He led Phoenix North Canyon to a state championship in 2005. He took Joy Christian to the 8-man state title in 2012. It's hard to get anything by him in the biggest game, no matter how physical and strong Benson may be.
Prediction: Joy Christian 34, Benson 20
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DIVISION IV
No. 3 Tucson Pusch Ridge (12-1) vs. No. 8 Phoenix Northwest Christian (11-2)
Where: Scottsdale Chaparral High
Talk about getting hot at the right time. Northwest Christian was the preseason pick to win it all, but staggered into the playoffs, losing its final two regular-season games to Yuma Catholic and Goodyear Estrella Foothills, before getting on a roll.
Part of that was avenging that loss in Yuma Catholic, taking advantage of four turnovers in a shockingly easy 48-0 quarterfinal win. It then eliminated a powerful White Mountains team, Snowflake, 23-12, that might have been the most physical team the Crusaders faced to get a shot at the title. But it comes against the team of destiny. Like Northwest Christian, Pusch Ridge made the move up from Division V this year. But nobody expected Pusch Ridge to be playing for a state championship.
It got here in thrilling fashion, scoring with 20 seconds left on a 30-yard catch by Ben Walker to beat defending state champion Mohave Valley River Valley 13-10 in the quarterfinals. Last week, Pusch Ridge knocked off Lake Havasu 17-14 in overtime.
Pusch Ridge wants to make this a defensive game, as well, and try to control the clock to minimize quarterback Drew Inness' chances with the ball. Both teams have senior quarterbacks who are sons of the head coaches. Dave Inness is a defensive-minded coach, who has counted on his son, Drew, for three years, leading the offense. He has made all the right moves in the playoffs, including throwing for a school-record six touchdown passes in the first round against Tucson Flowing Wells.
Cody Cropp, the son of Pusch Ridge coach Troy Cropp, has thrown only 14 TD passes this season. That is because this is a power-run team led by 6-foot-1, 210-pound senior James Raica, who has 1,157 yards and 12 TDs rushing. Sophomore Tamerat McLeod is averaging 7 yards on 113 carries. He has 17 TDs. He is a change-of-pace runner who is great in space.
But defense wins games for Pusch Ridge, which had 35 sacks, 10 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. Northwest Christian has used various backs each playoff game to make plays. Last week, it was junior Caleb Egherman, who led the team with 38 rushing yards and a TD. Northwest Christian has been very good defensively, while minimizing mistakes. It got Snowflake into a miserable passing performance (9 for 23, 67 yards, two interceptions), but now it will have to try to stuff the run. That's going to take a mammoth effort. This will go down to the wire, but this time Pusch Ridge runs out of miracles.
Prediction: Northwest Christian 18, Pusch Ridge 15
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No. 1 Paradise Valley (13-0) vs. No. 3 Goodyear Desert Edge (11-2)
When: 11 a.m. Saturday
Where: Arizona Stadium, Tucson
Some still aren't convinced Paradise Valley is the better team, because when it beat Desert Edge on its fast surface on Sept. 3, Desert Edge was without the key to its ignition — junior quarterback Tehran Thomas. He was out with a foot injury. Paradise Valley won 33-21 with Daniel Bridge-Gadd exhausting and faking out Desert Edge's defense with his athleticism and ability to extend plays, passing for 354 yards and five touchdowns and running for 117 yards.
Desert Edge's entire team changed without Thomas, as receiver Alias Sturges was removed from the secondary to focus on running the offense at quarterback. Now, Desert Edge feels order has been restored with Thomas running the offense and Sturges able to focus more on defense. He likely will be assigned to wide receiver Jacob Brown, Bridge-Gadd's favorite target.
Desert Edge is 10-0 with Thomas at QB. Thomas is really an incredible tailback with enough of an arm to keep defenses honest. Thomas isn't the only speedster Paradise Valley has to worry about. While Thomas has 1,432 yards rushing, sophomore Rocky Perez has 1,040 yards. Paradise Valley's defense hasn't been good enough to keep the pressure off of its incredible offense.
Paradise Valley may have to win this with offense. Desert Edge's defense hasn't exactly dominated. This could be a shootout with one team scoring on the ground and the other through the air. First one to 40 wins.
Prediction: Desert Edge 48, Paradise Valley 45
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No. 5 Tempe Marcos de Niza (12-2) vs. No. 7 Scottsdale Saguaro (11-2)
Lots of great athletes on the field. Don't underestimate Marcos de Niza's speed and defense. It has a good history with Saguaro. Last year, they met in Week 10 with Saguaro outscoring Marcos de Niza 61-35. That was the most points any team scored against a 14-0 Saguaro team that was arguably the greatest in school history.
Marcos de Niza coach Sean Morin has done an exceptional job, allowing athletes to blossom in his system after star players Byron Murphy (Saguaro) and N'Keal Harry (Chandler) transferred after their sophomore year. This Marcos de Niza team doesn't have a star but does have enough athletes to keep Saguaro on its toes.
It starts with QB Nazareth Greer, who is 50 yards away from 3,000 passing and has 21 TD passes. There is no 1,000-yard rusher, but Avery Sanders and Shaun Richards are capable home run hitters. And the defense will get after it, led by linebacker Jacob Hernandez, who has 148 tackles.
Marcos de Niza will try to turn loose 6-3, 209-pound Daviaughn Reagan (10.5 sacks) and 6-3, 220-pound Anthony Gomez-Nicastro (10.5 sacks). Marcos de Niza has 47.5 sacks, 15 interceptions and 13 fumble recoveries. This is a punishing defense that forced four turnovers against Mesa Skyline in a semifinal upset.
But Saguaro is back on playoff track, playing like it did last year in the end with Kare' Lyles finding Murphy for big plays and Stone Matthews running for big yards behind a big, talented, experienced line. But this won't be an easy stride to the gold ball for the Sabercats to claim an eighth state championship since 2006.
Prediction: Saguaro 31, Marcos de Niza 28
1 p.m. Tuesday: High school sports roundtable
Arizona's best high school football coaches:
No. 4 Mesa Desert Ridge (11-2) vs. No. 6 Peoria Centennial (11-2)
When: 3 p.m. Friday
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale
Both of these teams have overachieved to get here, each eliminating a powerful Chandler school on the way to the championship game. A week after Centennial shocked the state with 27 unanswered points in the final 8 minutes of a 34-23 quarterfinal win at Chandler Hamilton, Desert Ridge made stop after fourth-quarter stop to pull out a 24-21 semifinal win at top-ranked Chandler.
Now, it's throwback power football in the final with the game won in the trenches. Centennial likes to pride itself in having the best offensive line in the state. Desert Ridge takes big pride in its defensive front, led by a tank in the middle, 6-5, 315-pound D.J. Davidson, a tremendous, physical athlete, who can break double-teams. Jalen Harris and Andre Elmore on the edge are tough to stop. And the secondary has been in lock-down mode the second half of the season. Safety Stephan Gomez intercepted Mason Moran twice in the fourth quarter last week to preserve Desert Ridge's win.
Centennial's defense is powerful and on a mission with ends Chris Jules and Andrew Nichols quickly getting to the quarterback, linebacker John Rincon looking like the best strong safety in the state with his cover skills and linebacker Bozton Sanders making plays at the line of scrimmage. Who knows what kind of offense Centennial will come out with: either spread of power run. Desert Ridge coaches and players will have to be quick to adjust.
Prediction: Centennial 27, Desert Ridge 24
Reach Obert at richard.obert@arizonarepublic.com or 602-460-1710. Follow him at twitter.com/azc_obert.
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baseball, Brandon Laird, Canyons, Christians, Deserts, football, Greg Davis, high school football, joy christian matt mitchell dujuan lawrence isaiah goodspeed chandler hamilton paradise valley daniel bridge-gadd jacob brown desert edge tehran thomas desert ridge centennial, Lakes, Richard Taylor, Rivers, schools, Stadiums, Gallery
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