Iowa Republicans prove they know they need a more centrist nominee
Kyle Scott
The Iowa Republican caucuses are the most overrated, and perhaps irrelevant, event in politics. Rick Santorum's second-place finish is confirmation of this fact.
Santorum's near victory on Tuesday is good for the candidate, but it does not mean much for deciding the eventual Republican nominee. The only second-place finisher to go on and win the nomination was Ronald Reagan in 1980, and I don't think anyone is confusing Santorum with the Gipper.
Iowa is more socially conservative than the rest of the nation, which is why it has so often failed to pick the eventual winner. Just ask Mike Huckabee from 2008. Doing well in Iowa is not necessarily a good indication of who will win the nomination because Iowa caucus-goers are not an accurate representation of the national electorate. The issues relevant to Iowans, like ethanol and farm subsidies, do not resonate with the average American.
Also, Iowans are more socially conservative than that rest of America. More people in Iowa oppose same-sex marriage and abortion than the rest of the U.S. Santorum's largest group of supporters came from those who consider abortion to be the most important issue facing the nation. This group will make up only a small percentage of the electorate in primary states and the general election.
If Santorum can moderate his message in a way that appeals to New Hampshire primary voters, he might be able to build on his Iowa showing. But this is unlikely because he has never polled in the double-digits in the Granite State, which also happens to be in Mitt Romney's backyard and where Ron Paul's libertarian message resonates most.
To win Iowa a candidate must run to the extreme right, but to win the nomination the candidate must be closer to the center. One cannot do both and avoid the appearance of changing positions on important issues. The positions one must take to win Iowa are the ones that turn off Independents and more moderate Republicans, which explains why Pat Robertson and Mike Huckabee did so well in Iowa.
The Republicans need Independents to win the general election. For Independents, Santorum embodies the socially conservative Republican with a hawkish foreign policy, precisely the type of candidate that Independents ran away from in 2008.
Many Iowans recognize this fact, which is why Romney won in Iowa. Indeed, Romney's win is startling considering how little time he spent in the state as well as the fact that Iowa usually goes to the most conservative candidate. With his East Coast heritage, Mormonism and support for liberal policies, Romney does not look like past winners. His victory shows that Iowa caucus-goers want someone with the best chance to beat President Obama, even if that person is not the one with whom they identify most.
Romney is not the most conservative candidate on the Republican side nor is he the one with the most consistent record in support of conservative values. Instead, Romney has the best chance of giving Republican voters what they want, a Republican White House. He has support from the Republican establishment, enough money to run a successful campaign against President Obama, a record that can attract Independents, and success in the private sector.
All of which goes to show that Republican caucus-goers in Iowa know something that the rest of the Republican Party knows, even if it doesn't admit it -- the staunch conservatism of the Tea Party and the House Republicans cannot win the White House.
Romney is the only Republican candidate, aside from Ron Paul perhaps, who is capable of winning New Hampshire. This means, in all likelihood, Romney will win the first two states of the nomination season. With his strong organization and fundraising in later states, it appears the only remaining question is who will be Romney's running mate. Santorum might be a good choice.
Kyle Scott teaches political science at Duke University.
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