Home2018February
2017 Post-season NFL Pick Results
February 3, 2018 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Super Bowl LII Pick
Total Against the Spread: 7-3
Pick of the Week: 0-0
High Confidence Picks: 2-1
Medium Confidence Picks: 0-0
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 2-1
Low Confidence Picks: 3-2
No Confidence Picks: 2-0
Upset Picks: 0-1
Total Against the Spread: 139-119-8 (53.76%)
Pick of the Week: 11-6 (64.71%)
High Confidence Picks: 21-11-3 (64.29%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 33-33-1 (50.00%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 65-50-4 (56.30%)
Low Confidence Picks: 44-38-4 (53.49%)
No Confidence Picks: 30-31 (49.18%)
Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)
All-Time (Since 2013)
Total Against the Spread: 691-607-36 (53.15%)
Pick of the Week: 51-34-2 (59.77%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 199-152-6 (56.58%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 330-245-14 (57.22%)
Low Confidence Picks: 189-183-13 (50.78%)
No Confidence Picks: 172-179-9 (49.03%)
Upset Picks: 107-136 (44.03%)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots: Super Bowl LII Bowl Pick
February 3, 2018 February 3, 2018 stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Patriots, Super Bowl LII Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) vs. New England Patriots (15-3) in Super Bowl LII
Opposing quarterbacks never actually share the field in an NFL game, but the matchup between quarterbacks is usually the most discussed one in an NFL game and the Super Bowl is no different. This year, we have a very unlikely quarterback matchup, for a number of reasons. On one side, the Eagles will start Nick Foles, who no one would have expected to be starting in this game before the season, making just his 6th start of the season after taking over for Carson Wentz when Wentz tore his ACL back in week 14.
On the other side, is Tom Brady, who is in his 8th Super Bowl. Despite his history, Brady playing in this game again at age 40 is highly unlikely when you consider the history of the game, as Brady continued to defy the odds and father time as the likely league MVP in 2017. He led the league in passing yards and the Patriots once again finished with the best record in the AFC and won a pair of home playoff games. With a solid passing day, Tom Brady could become the first quarterback in NFL history with 10,000 career post-season passing yards. Nick Foles doesn't have 10,000 career regular season passing yards. This will be Nick Foles' 4th career post-season start. It will be Brady's 37th. To say this is a mismatch would be an understatement.
Despite all that, Nick Foles is ironically the one who ranks 3rd all-time in single season quarterback rating, posting a 119.2 mark in 10 starts in Chip Kelly's system back in 2013 (Brady's best season, 2007, only ranks 4th at 117.2). The problem for Foles is he's never done anything like that in any other season. Outside of 2013, he's completed just 58.9% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions, which are very much backup numbers.
After an underwhelming season as the Eagles' starting quarterback in 2014, he was sent to the Rams for Sam Bradford. In 2015, with the Rams, he struggled mightily before being benched for Case Keenum and eventually released the following off-season, after the Rams moved up to #1 overall to draft Jared Goff. As a free agent in each of the following two off-seasons, Foles had to settle for backup work in Kansas City and then back in Philadelphia this season, but, when Wentz went down, he was thrown into the fire as the starter late in the season for a team in control of its own destiny to the #1 seed in the NFC.
Foles hasn't lost a meaningful game since becoming the starter, as the Eagles also were the #1 seed and won two home playoff games, but Foles has been a mixed bag in 5 starts. Against the Raiders and in limited action in a meaningless week 17 game against the Cowboys, he looked like the quarterback who was released by the Rams. Against the Giants and the Falcons, he looked like a competent starter. And then last week, out of nowhere, Foles had his best game since the 2013 season, completing 26 of 33 for 352 yards and 3 touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the league in a shocking 38-7 victory over the favored Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship.
If Foles does that again, the Eagles will win this game by double digits, but the likelihood of that doesn't seem high, especially against a New England team that is well coached and has two weeks to study him. Outside of the quarterback position, the Eagles have a better roster with obvious advantages on both the offensive and defensive lines, but the Patriots have the obvious experience, coaching, and quarterback advantage and a strong roster as well. I like how this line has dropped to 4.5 after the Eagles' win over the Vikings last week and the Patriots' near loss to the Jaguars. Last week, this line probably would have been about 7.5, and I think dropping this line below 6 is an overreaction to a single week of play. The Patriots are my pick and are worth a small bet against the spread.
New England Patriots 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17
Pick against the spread: New England -4.5