Astros vs Mariners MLB Betting Pick – July 31st
Written by Jordan Walters on July 31, 2018
MLB Betting News
For a while there, it looked like Houston was going to run away with the AL West Division again. However, the Astros have hit a rough spot of late and the Seattle Mariners can cut more into their dwindling lead in Game 2 of their series Tuesday in the Pacific Northwest. Let's check the latest MLB odds for Astros vs Mariners while making some predictions.
How to Bet Astros vs Mariners MLB Odds & Game Info
That heads up defense from @el_yuly10. 👌 pic.twitter.com/995FSDnCVe
— Houston Astros (@astros) 31 de julio de 2018
When: Tuesday, 10:10 PM ET
Where: Safeco Field, Seattle
Probable pitchers (away/home): Charlie Morton/Mike Leake
TV: MLB Network
Stream: MLB.tv
Radio: TuneIn
MLB Odds: Houston Astros -155 / Seattle Mariners +135 (Total 8)
Why Bet on Houston?
The Astros entered Monday's series opener having lost four straight. They were swept at home over the weekend by a not very good Texas team. The Astros hadn't been swept yet in 2018. Entering Monday, the Astros only have a four-game lead over Seattle and a six-game lead on Oakland even though the A's are hot on everyone's trail.Also over the weekend, Houston lost reigning AL MVP and batting champion Jose Altuve to the DL retroactive to July 26 with right knee discomfort. It's the first time in his brilliant eight-year career that Altuve has landed on it. Altuve is hitting a team-leading .329 with nine home runs and 46 RBIs in 104 games. The Astros are already without shortstop Carlos Correa, who is sidelined with back trouble, so their regular double-play combination is currently on the disabled list.Will Houston make another move before Tuesday's trade deadline? They might be done after acquiring former All-Star closer from Toronto on Monday. Osuna is currently serving a 75-game suspension but that will end Sunday. The 23-year-old right-hander has posted a 2.93 ERA with nine saves in 15 appearances for the Blue Jays this season. Houston gave up veteran reliever Ken Giles, who began the year as the team's closer but was sent down a few weeks ago, and minor league pitchers Hector Perez and David Paulino.It's Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.89) on the mound here. Morton did not factor into the decision in Wednesday's loss, allowing one run on four hits and four walks while striking out five over six innings against the Rockies. Morton allowed a solo shot in the second inning and struggled some with command in this one. He threw only 58 of 102 pitches for strikes en route to issuing four free passes and hitting a batter, but still left in line for the win when he turned it over to the bullpen.A win vs. Seattle would set Morton two wins shy of tying his career high at 14, which he set in 2017. The Astros have lost each of Morton's past two starts. He's throwing his four-seam fastball more often this season, basically splitting his fastball usage evenly between it and his sinker. That's given him a third pitch with an above average whiff rate to call on reliably. It's also given him a pitch to use up in the zone.
Why Bet on Seattle?
Should Mariners closer Edwin Diaz get some MVP votes? He could potentially break the MLB single-season saves record. Diaz picked up his 39th save of the season by pitching a scoreless inning against the Angels on Sunday to help the Mariners win 8-5. Diaz walked Cole Calhoun to begin the inning, but he got Mike Trout to fly out to center, and he struck out Justin Upton and Albert Pujols to end the game and give the Mariners a much-needed win.Diaz has 87 strikeouts in just 52 innings. His ratio of 5.8 strikeouts for every one walk is the 10th-best mark among qualified relievers. Only the Brewers Josh Hader (50.3%) has a higher strikeout rate than Diaz's 44.2%.
Diaz's is on pace for 60 saves over the 162-game season. There has been only one 60-save season in baseball, accomplished by Francisco Rodriguez for the Angels back in 2008. There have been just 16 50-plus save seasons since the statistic was created in 1969. Since 2012, only five closers have racked up 50-plus saves: Jeurys Familia (51, 2016), Mark Melancon (51, 2015), Craig Kimbrel (50, 2013), and Jim Johnson twice (50, 2013; 51, 2012).It's Mike Leake (8-6, 4.15) for Seattle. Leake got a quality start but didn't factor into the decision Wednesday against the Giants, striking out a pair in 6.1 innings and allowing two runs on four hits. Leake cruised through six scoreless innings before getting into trouble in the seventh, leaving after allowing a pair of hits to Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford, both of whom would score. Still, it was a positive outing for Leake, who has now allowed just three earned runs in 12.1 innings over his last two starts.Leake gave up seven hits and five runs in six innings in a 7-1 loss to Houston on April 18 in his only prior meeting this year. Despite eating more innings than any rotation besides the Astros and Indians, Seattle's starters have thrown fewer pitchers than the average starting five. Additionally, those pitches have been compared to the average starting lower-leverage and, theoretically, lower stress.
Latest MLB Betting Trends
Astros are 16-3 in Morton's last 19 starts with 5 days of rest
Astros are 20-8 in their last 28 road games vs. a right-handed starter
Mariners are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series
Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games on the road
Seattle is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Houston
Seattle is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
Expert Prediction for Astros vs Mariners
Leake isn't nearly as good as his recent numbers. Back Houston.
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