CHINA: Coal consumption much lower growth since 2011, last two years (2014 and 2015) with negative growth. Cement down in 2015. China 2016 growth rates: Total -0.5%. Coal -1.8%, Oil 4.0%, Gas 7.2%, Cement 2.6%. 10 year trend 4.4%/yr.
USA: Coal down in 2015 and 2016, following longer term trend though large annual variability. Oil, Gas up. USA 2016 growth rates: Total -1.7%, Coal -8.5%, Oil 1.0%, Gas 2.0%, Cement 1.9%. 10 year trend -1.3%/yr.
EU28: In 2015 up primarily due to increases oil and gas consumption. Longer term trend down. No estimate for 2016. 10 year trend -2.4%/yr.
INDIA: 10 year grown of around 6%/yr, 2015 up 5% due to slightly lower growth in coal but larger growth in oil. No estimate for 2016.
5. Why the rapid changes in China?
7. The annual increase in energy consumption (black) has declined, mainly since less growth in coal use (green) Renewables have grown strongly, but the slowdown in energy use makes this look more impressive! All data is smoothed with a 10 year window Source: Peters et al 2017 What is the marginal energy source?
12. When will Chinese CO2 emissions peak?
13. Chinese emissions have most likely been flat since 2013, a significant change from the 2000's. Will this trend continue? Source: BP, NBS, IEA, and own calculations, see Le Quéré et al 2016 Have emissions peaked already?
14. When will Chinese CO2 emissions peak? The President said before 2030 No, when do you think emissions will peak? We normally follow what the President says… When will Chinese CO2 emissions peak?
19. Should we trust Chinese data?
20. A major dip in coal consumption around 2000 turned out to be underreporting of small coal mines. The current Chinese "crackdown" may have similar led to underreporting? Source: BP (Multiple Years) and based on NBS data, with own calculations Can the data be trusted?