Zimbabwe's unity government
Still adored
By a few. But Robert Mugabe is reviled as never before by most of his compatriots
Middle East & AfricaDec 19th 2009 edition
SADLY for his many opponents, Robert Mugabe is far from being the decrepit old man some would wish. Indeed, judging by his display at last weekend's five-yearly ZANU-PF congress in Harare, Zimbabwe's 85-year-old president is as cunning and energetic as ever. Cultured, amusing, charming one moment, threatening and vicious the next, the former liberation hero remains a political superstar to his grassroots supporters. On December 12th he was reappointed his party's leader for a further five years and thus became its likely presidential candidate too.
Within Zanu-PF different groups have been jostling to succeed Mr Mugabe. One such, led by Vice-President Joice Mujuru and her husband, a former general called Solomon Mujuru, appears for the moment to have gained the upper hand over a clutch of hardliners led by Emmerson Mnangagwa, the defence minister. Yet much as the top brass dislike Mr Mugabe, they also know that ZANU-PF would collapse into warring factions were he to go.
Blaming ZANU-PF's defeat in the March 2008 elections on its internal divisions, Mr Mugabe told 7,000 delegates that it was time to put the party machine into top gear. Under the power-sharing pact with Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), the unity government, set up last February, was supposed to last only 18-24 months, he claimed. Elections could thus come at any time, and the party was "ready and raring to take on the enemy who sought our ruin," he declared to wild applause and ululations.
Some have interpreted this to mean that Mr Mugabe wants an early poll. But it is more of a ruse to unite the party, which he knows would be wiped out in any reasonably free vote. A new survey carried out for the Washington-based Freedom House indicates that Zanu-PF would get only 12% of the vote in a presidential election, compared with 55% for the MDC.
The survey makes good reading for those who argue that the MDC's contribution to the unity government is helping to improve life for Zimbabweans however much Mr Mugabe tries to undermine it. Three-quarters of Zimbabweans believe economic conditions in their country are better than a year ago. Nearly two-thirds expect their own standard of living to improve further over the next 12 months. The vast majority credit the unity government with the reduction in political violence and the return of food and other goods to the once-empty shops following the replacement of the worthless local currency by the American dollar.
Most want fresh elections within the next 12 months, but that is unlikely to happen. Despite Mr Mugabe's claims, the power-sharing pact gives no date for the end of the unity government. It simply sets out a timetable for drawing up a new democratic constitution. After being put to a referendum, the draft is supposed to be presented to parliament by next October. But thanks to Zanu-PF's delaying tactics this has fallen behind schedule. The MDC hopes for a poll in the first half of 2011.
From the outset, Mr Mugabe has done his utmost to circumvent the hated power-sharing pact foisted on him by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a 15-member regional club. Ten months after the formation of the unity government, he continues to control the most important branches of it, including the intelligence services and the police, as well as the media. However, following Mr Tsvangirai's decision in October to "disengage" from such a sham set-up, SADC last month ordered that all the "outstanding issues" in the power-sharing pact be settled within 30 days.
Appointed the official mediator in the talks, Jacob Zuma, South Africa's president, appears to be adopting a tougher attitude towards Mr Mugabe than did his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki. Although SADC's December 6th deadline has passed, there is said to have been some progress, albeit not on the most contentious issues.
The talks were suspended on December 7th to allow negotiators to attend the Zanu-PF congress and Copenhagen climate summit. But they were to resume after December 18th and they may drag on into the new year. Mr Zuma is determined that everything should be wrapped up soon. South Africa is already seeing signs of a resurgence of last year's ugly xenophobic violence. The last thing Mr Zuma wants in the run-up to next year's football World Cup in South Africa would be for his neighbour to the north to collapse into renewed political and economic chaos, with thousands of refugees streaming across the border to join the estimated 3m Zimbabweans already in his country.
This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "Still adored"
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