The 2023 Growth Portfolio*
* "Third verse, same as the first."
Or, put another way, we're doing it…again…but it looks a little like previous editions and a lot like last year's edition.
First, the Background
Going back to the inception of this site, we've created mock portfolios that are designed to replicate what a mutual fund or ETF would look like…if it were allowed to invest in (what we've called at cocktail parties) "Bitcoin and Bitcoin-like substances."
There was the "BRED Portfolio," our first foray into the genre. (Bonus points scored just now for using "foray" and "genre" in the same sentence.) There were previous iterations of "Growth Portfolios" (though the first was called the "Crypto Balance Portfolio").
And there was last year's Growth Portfolio, which…tanked. (Bear markets will do that, it appears.)
Which Brings Us to 2023
Before we start, we do need to ask a question — posed in musical format by semi-obscure British alternative act Kitchens of Distinction, circa 1992 — about "What Happens Now?"
Album entitled "The Death of Cool," natch
If your portfolio was, in theory, well-positioned to take advantage of a few different crypto developments — like Bitcoin's continued dominance in the space, plus Ethereum's "merge," plus DeFi (like "Sushi"), and throwing in NFT gaming with coins like Magic and DeFi Kingdoms — you might as well just take the same ten coins from the previous year and rebalance on 1/1/23.
(If you want to see the 2023 Growth Portfolio in all its glory (ahem), you can also take a look at the updated numbers anytime over here: CoinGecko Link.)
First up, this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Second, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Now that that's out of the way…What the heck IS GOING ON???
Seriously, the "Up Only" meme phrase from last year's bull market (before it became a bear market) over there on the one side of the image is kinda done as a joke. But not.
Up Only (So Far, 2023)
They're all up! The worst performer is DeFi Kingdoms, known by its ticker of JEWEL and it's up a measly 26.87%. Huh? MAGIC has tripled?
Well, you do realize that most of these went…way down last year. So they're just ticking back up, trying to answer that old problem of needing to go WAY UP to make back what you lost after going WAY DOWN by (in some cases) 95% last year.
Again, you're on your own with any of these portfolio ideas. You could make mad bank, you could…not.
But it does like you could have had a nice pickup of 63% in just short of a month had you tried this 2023 Growth Portfolio.
Written by David Van de Walle · Categorized: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Growth Portfolio
Crypto: Down. Stocks: Down. Inflation: Up. So What Do You Buy?
Here's yet another post with a couple blatant caveats: (1) THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE and (2) NOBODY KNOWS WHAT'S GOING ON.
We've had a couple weeks here in CryptoLand. You name it, it's down. Take our 2022 Growth Portfolio: a hypothetical $10,000 investment with $1,000 each in ten different crypto assets. Thank God it's only hypothetical.
Screenshot from May 20, 5:30 a.m. CDT
It was a bloodbath. It still is kinda sorta a bloodbath, in that nobody knows if BTC saw the bottom, or if ETH's move to Proof of Stake (known colloquially as "The Merge") is going to be all that, or if stablecoins will stabilize.
And whether or not you're better off throwing darts.
At Least the Stock Market Is Okay, Right?
Let's answer the question in the meme with a screenshot.
Stock market, one-month performance.
The problem, though, is that to keep propping up the stock market, The Fed is going to need to thread the needle on interest rates. Too much of an increase and the stock market tanks. Too little of an increase and you can't catch up with inflation.
So you're painted into a corner because the stock market is so important to everyone's 401(k) plan and the inflation rate — which is caused, DUH, by ALL THAT PANDEMIC MONEY PRINTING — is so important to everyone's standard of living that it really REALLY stinks to be Jerome Powell right now.
Now, Let's Talk Inflation. Cue Karen Carpenter…
"We've Only Just Begun…"
Wait, WHAT? https://t.co/h6ILx4binx
— Dave Van de Walle (@Area224) May 20, 2022
As David Stockman — President Reagan's former Budget Director, native Midwesterner (shout-out to Michiana!), and future guest on my YouTube channel (call me!) — told us on Doug Casey's Dispatch a couple weeks ago, we are collectively screwed. And it's mostly thanks to central bankers.
That part about J-POW having a rough job is not an understatement; the corner we have been painted (printed) into is troublesome. Investors don't know which assets to invest in, and the average Joe is more worried about real-life things like gas prices or the cost of food.
So…What DO You Buy?
We follow a few financial people on Twitter, on YouTube, and elsewhere. We're nailing Jell-O to a tree here.
Here's Joe from Heresy Financial, telling us (SPOILER ALERT) that Treasurys might be the way to go. Here's another YouTuber — one we found from typing in "where to invest 2022" into the YouTube search bar, then going with the first one we found from the month of May — suggesting individual stocks. And here's CNBC, taking a break from its "How This [NUMBER] Year-Old [JOB DESCRIPTION] Made [LARGE AMOUNT] By [ZAGGING WHEN EVERYONE ELSE ZIGGED AND/OR INHERITING MONEY]" template (shown here) to give us a whole host of ideas of where to invest in an inflationary environment.
Feel free to grab any of these ideas and batten down the hatches, right?
We'd refer you back (AGAIN) to our series called SHTF. Volume 1 is here and Volume 2 is here. But these are *mostly* crypto-related ideas (with a break for some precious metals and cash on hand). And that isn't even guaranteed, if the last few weeks are any evidence.
TL;DR: See Elmo
Buckle Up. Good Luck.
Written by David Van de Walle · Categorized: Bitcoin, CryptoCrash, Ethereum, Inflation, Uncategorized
Help With Crypto Doom Scrolling
If you're looking for a bright spot, any bright spot, where do you look? Darn good question. We don't know, either. But here are a couple things to help. Maybe.
It's Not as Bad This Morning as It Was Overnight
Our 2022 Crypto Growth Portfolio
Behold, the numbers from the 2022 Crypto Growth Portfolio. The columns next to price are (first) 1-hour change and (second) 24-hour change.
Sell in May and Go Away has been replaced by "buy stuff an hour ago, watch it go up 5% on average, then sell it all and buy some foodstuffs."
BTW, your $10,000 investment in the 2022 Growth Portfolio is now…$6702.
At Least You're Not LUNA or UST
(If you are holding one of those or you're part of the teams behind those…scroll on to the next subhead. Trust us.)
Here's a chart of what happened overnight to UST.
This is after yours truly thought they had somewhat kinda righted the ship after sorta kinda having one of those weird days the other day.
Still, this is a coin that is pegged to the US Dollar and uses something called "an algorithm" to keep its price at $1.00 Or so we thought; but, as a wise man once told me, sometimes the quants get it wrong.
One year of UST
360 days of being thisclose to $1 each. And then the rug gets pulled. It's Soros-level market manipulation (Learn more about that here: Soros.) It's not done.
Below you'll find a 24-hour price chart for $LUNA, which backs $UST.
We're being nice. Could have shared the 1-year chart.
Then There's $COIN
Oy. Coinbase is having a rough go of it, eh? Much will be discussed about the company's growth — whether too much too quick or the post-IPO blues — but it's really a yikes moment.
Not a good look.
(We won't even mention the infamous "Jim Cramer Albatross" rating the stock a buy all the way up to $475.)
Carnage, Carnage Everywhere
The bubbles are popping left and right; not just in crypto. Used-car marketplace Carvana has laid off 12% of its staff. While you'd *think* this has something to do with inflation and used-car demand, you'd be slightly right but actually way wrong.
Just random thoughts browsing this — Carvana's debt/Enterprise value has shot up from 4% last year to ~60% now. This is firmly in B/CCC territory so no surprise there but when this number changes this rapidly, it is usually a precursor of default risk
— HA (@ArifHozef) May 10, 2022
Read the thread, short the stock.
This is about that "Irrational Exuberance" that the Fed warned us about back before they became a meme.
Live view of the fed reversing the money printer pic.twitter.com/31h3ipTbNs
— Wall Street Memes (@wallstmemes) May 4, 2022
At Least Inflation Is Better, Right?
Narrative highlights tell you it's not so bad.
The narrative machine has kicked in already: it slowed (from 8.5% last month, but that's year-over-year) but it actually went up (0.3% month-to-month). And Gasoline isn't bad because the index fell, but energy prices went up year-over-year.
"RETVRN" is a common cry among trads on Twitter. Better days ahead if we go back to what better days were like before. Or something like that.
Written by David Van de Walle · Categorized: Bitcoin, Coinbase, Inflation
Inflation.
18 months ago, right before the Presidential election, we wrote a two-part series that got a little bit of attention. In it, we discussed a strategy for when things get pretty bad.
Part One (go here for more: SHTF Part One) is probably more endemic to today's news of an inflation rate that has the risk of spiraling out of control than Part Two.
But, to be honest, we didn't think, even back then, that we'd see 7.9 percent year-over-year inflation. In the United States.
(Thanks to tradingeconomics.com for the chart; month-by-month figures going back to Jan. 2017.)
The U.S. Dollar Is…Get This…An Inflationary Asset!
To paraphrase George Costanza's risk management tapes from the show Seinfeld, "in order to understand 'inflation' we must first define 'inflation.'"
When you print way too much money, you get inflation. "Inflation is, always and everywhere, a monetary problem," according to Milton Friedman. You can throw blame at whichever President or Congress you'd like (they're all guilty, as we learn in this balanced piece from the website The Balance), or whichever crisis you'd like (though, to be fair, the Federal Government printed a metric crapton during COVID).
Don't Believe The (Putin) Hype
Listen to Chuck D.
Don't listen to Joe B.
"I'm SICK of this stuff!"
Joe Biden is furious that Americans blame inflation on his government spending. pic.twitter.com/quRxB2lfvA
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) March 11, 2022
The seeds were sown ages ago — like, probably three or four Fed Governors and Presidential Budget Directors ago — and the reality is that Vladimir Putin is a mere scapegoat. Gas prices are rising, but they're not totally his fault; and the rise in food prices to come will be due, in part, to Putin's war.
But you could get into a host of academic arguments and ask who bears the most responsibility and it won't solve the problem.
'Bitcoin Solves This!'
Yes, and no. And maybe.
As Putin's War Machine and his "Evil Cronies" are learning, if you can't use the global financial system that exists — if you're shut out of traditional banking — you have to make do. In Putin's case, that means calling China. In your case, that means…well, that means a few things.
First up, you're not Putin, planning on invading another country. But you don't know if or when you will fall out of favor with the traditional banks. (See "Trudeau, Justin" for an example of just how that could happen to you.) You also don't know exactly how bad this inflation stuff will get — and you could find yourself using the black market (WHAT???) before you know it.
Venezuelan Black Market Finance
If you live in Venezuela, you have been dealing with this sort of thing for a while. There's an official exchange rate, then there's an unofficial black market rate. And there's always the risk of the government revaluing the currency.
Zimbabwe had to do this, too, creating a 100 Trillion Dollar Bill back in the day.
And on and on…
Upshot: Get In The Game
You don't know when the time will come where you need some of that stuff in the post — Cash, Precious Metals, some BTC through Coinbase or Crypto.com, and some ETH too (THOSE ARE AFFILIATE LINKS OVER THERE, WE COULD BE COMPENSATED IF YOU SIGN UP THROUGH THEM) — and you don't know when it might…hit the fan.
But standing on the sidelines, now, is not an option.
Written by David Van de Walle · Categorized: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Inflation · Tagged: 7.9 percent, Bitcorn, Gold, Silver, Venezuela, Zimbabwe
NGMI: Why You Should Sell It All And Become A Monk
You don't really think we're gonna make it, do you?
Internet sub-cultures are a wonderful thing. Sometime last year, a combination of NFT purveyors and OG crypto traders started to adopt the phrase "gm" as a means of wishing each other "Good Morning." It's really a fine line here. Do it right — simply use the two letters, don't use capitals, don't repurpose the General Motors logo — and you're part of the crowd. You're Shiv and Tom in the screenshot below. Happy. Complete. Enjoying a good time. Celebrating life.
Do it wrong and you're Kendall Roy, the punch line of the joke everyone but you is in on. (Watch the video. Cringe with us.)
Shoehorning a Succession reference into a blog post notwithstanding, "gm" evolved and "WGMI" was added shortly thereafter — at least by my measurement of the timeline, which could be off a hair, don't hold me to it, DYOR and all that — to underscore the optimism that the crypto and NFT communities bring to the world. We're Gonna Make It.
OR "Ain't No Stopping Us Now," as both McFadden and Whitehead reminded us sometime around 1979*.
We're Gonna Make It! The optimist is on board: crypto is the future! NFTs are adding value to the economy and giving artists new life!
The pessimist reads the asterisk below.
* IIRC, the song was adopted by the 1979 Baltimore Orioles as their answer to the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates' choice of "We Are Family" by Sister Sledge. The Pirates came back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Orioles in the 1979 World Series; I won 50 cents off my Dad.
Which Brings Us to Our Point: NGMI
Shortly after either learning about the WGMI acronym or reading about the untimely demise of Messrs McFadden and Whitehead, new lingo was created: NGMI. Not Gonna Make It.
How Bout That Portfolio?
Egads! That kinda stinks, right? We launched the Growth Portfolio a couple weeks back on this here site and our goal was to give you, Gentle Reader, a basket of those coins that can give you the best opportunity for potential success. Big coins, mid-sized coins, up-and-comers that are taking advantage of the NFT-based web3 economy: it's all there!
And it's getting pummeled, as is everything else.
The Biggest Dogs
BTC is below $40,000, ETH has dropped below $3000. The end is nigh!
This Blog Post's Title Is Tongue-in-Cheek
We really don't know how to make sense of this market the past couple weeks. Our own holdings are down nearly a third since the beginning of the year. We won't even begin to call a bottom, or else we'll look like this guy.
Or we could guess that this guy (below, Fed chair Jerome Powell) will bring new people to crypto writ large through the Fed's (possible) creation of something called "digital cash:" this is one of those "CBDCs" being bandied about in other countries.
Federal Reserve weighs creating 'digital cash' that would allow direct transfers without a bank https://t.co/fS4pnvhNh1
— Daily Mail US (@DailyMail) January 21, 2022
We also *could* start talking about new NFT developments — seems like everyone is getting in on the action, right? — and see that the challenges to OpenSea from Crypto.com and Coinbase probably say we've only just begun.
Our Point: Don't Give Up Just Yet. Or Do Give Up.
In any event, here are a couple concepts to embrace:
Do Your Own Research. "DYOR" is one of the acronyms we use often around here. Don't rely on us to tell you what to do. Sniff out a few other folks, check into CT ("Crypto Twitter") and find out what people are talking about.
Experiment. We've gotten in early on a couple coins. We've also blown it on a couple, too. (Our stake in this one, for instance, was purchased when the price was about 80 cents each.) And we've created a series or two (or three) of NFTs, with limited success. But, again, we're not afraid of experimentation.
Enjoy the Ride. The main reason yours truly is involved in this space is because he finds it bloody fascinating. Not every project is going to be eye-catching to you, not every token launch is going to make sense, and not every bit of lingo is going to be clever. If it's not fun, then maybe it's not for you?
Keep at it. Or become a monk.
We'll be here either way.
Written by David Van de Walle · Categorized: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Growth Portfolio, NFT, Non-Fungible Tokens, Portfolio · Tagged: McFadden & Whitehead, NFTs, NFTShill, Succession