On the oil importers (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia) side, the recovery in tourism, investor confidence and exports, supported by the recovery in European countries, are expected to contribute positively to the growth performance. Besides, many oil importing countries have announced stimulus packages to support the economic activity in the aftermath of social unrest. Oil importers are expected to grow 2.5 percent in 2014 and 3.4 percent in 2015. Yet these countries suffer from high unemployment, budget and current account deficits. The public debt levels are still high. However the situation is expected to improve on the back of recovery in economic activity and the incentive reforms.
"The divergence between the oil exporters and oil importers persists and the real growth rates remaining below the 2000-2010 average for both groups. Nevertheless most of the GCC countries were able to stay out of the geopolitical tensions which allowed them to continue to attract foreign investments and record solid growth rates. They continue to invest heavily in non-oil sectors to transform their economies. This also reduces their vulnerability to a sharp decline in energy prices. Therefore Coface assessments of business environment are better in these countries. But there are still some challenges that need to be addressed regarding future deterioration of fiscal balances, high level of bureaucracy and improvement of transparency. The impact of the social and political turmoil was heavier for oil importers. They still suffer from political uncertainties, high unemployment and public debt, deficit of current account balance and fiscal imbalances. However these countries are also making some progress in terms of structural reforms to improve fiscal performance, labour market conditions and business environment. Tunisia and Morocco are expected to have better economic performance due to the economic recovery in Europe," said Seltem IYIGUN, Economist for the Middle East and North Africa region at Coface.