A Golden Nosedive (aka Thunder in 5)
May 25, 2016 June 13, 2016 ~ dnathanfati	~ 1 Comment
The collapse of the 73-win, record-breaking Warriors was swift, and total. The setting was an Oklahoma house of horrors, where the defending champs laid down (Harrison Barnes, literally) in a way that seemed unthinkable just a month ago. In two straight high stakes games the MVP and his merry band of ballers were embarrassed, flabbergasted, annihilated.
There's no question at this point that the Thunder are the better team. Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams have been the best four players on the court in three of the four games. The series goes back to Oakland at 3-1, but the next time OKC sees its home building will be in the NBA Finals. We've seen this movie before. Just two years ago, a much-ballyhooed superteam in Miami, led by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, were flattened by a Spurs team composing its basketball masterpiece. We are witnessing the Thunder's "5th Symphony."
I'm getting flashbacks of the 2014 Spurs-Heat series. If GSW doesn't come out firing in the third I think this series end in 5
— D. Nathan Fati (@DNFonNBA) May 25, 2016
Improbably, the record-breaking Warriors, who up until last night hadn't lost two games in a row all season, go home with their tails between their legs facing almost certain elimination. How did it go so wrong? Let me count the ways:
Draymond Green completely disappeared. After the "kick to the balls heard 'round the world" Green weirdly self-destructed. The one-time triple-double machine has failed to notched one in his last two games combined (12 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists). He's also a -73 in those disastrous two games. Maybe a suspension would've helped?
Steph Curry reverted to his pre-MVP careless self as he lost his patented quickness due to a knee injury. OKC has done a phenomenal job bodying him up, as the refs are letting plenty of contact go. Westbrook is staying glued to him in 1-on-1 situations and it's obvious Curry has lost a step since the MCL injury. He can't create separation like he's used to, and has become a turnover machine at the worst possible time (six in Game). He also can't make a layup for some reason.
They were murdered on the glass, to the tune of 56-40 (16 of them offensive rebounds) in Game 4. That followed a 52-38 beat down in Game 3. Too many times the Dubs were one-and-done while the Thunder got multiple cracks at a key bucket.
They resorted to non-stop fouling. It seemed every time I looked up Durant, Westbrook or Adams was on the free throw line in Games 3 and 4. The Thunder shot 77 free throws in the last two games.
Defensively they fell apart. This may be the ultimate explanation of their demise. In the regular season, Golden State ranked fifth in defensive rating. They won the title last year largely because it was so hard to score on them for long stretches. Their positional versatility was the trump card when things got tight late in games. Yet the Thunder have obliterated them in both transition and the half court. Their two superstars are getting 55+ points per game and the role players, a question mark all season, have stepped up big. In Games 3 & 4, the 73-win Golden State Warriors gave up 251 total points. That's not a misprint.
Billy Donovan shocked the world (well, NBA Twitter) by outcoaching Steve Kerr. Donovan abandoned the Enes Kanter/Adams combo that was the Spurs' kryptonite early on, favoring a smaller, quicker lineup with Ibaka picking up rim-protecting and switching duties. Meanwhile the Coach of the Year Kerr has thrown way too many guys into his rotations. Anderson Varejao, Brandon Rush and Ian Clark should not be seeing non-garbage time minutes in a conference finals. Festus Ezeli couldn't hit a free throw, yet Kerr kept going to him when it was clear OKC was going to keep putting him on the line. The strategy to turn Andre Roberson into Tony Allen by completely ignoring him defensively backfired when Roberson started hitting threes at will. It just seems like Kerr is getting flustered on the sideline just as much as his team is on the court. Again, unthinkable stuff.
Many of these factors are linked. Teams that are getting manhandled on the boards foul out of frustration. Same goes for a team that's getting out hustled to every loose ball. The 50/50 balls have been more like 90/10 for the Thunder. Coach Kerr is scrambling for solutions as he sees his team give up flurries of points, leading to uncharacteristic coaching blunders. OKC's frantic defense, predicated on switching, closing out hard on shooters and denying everything at the rim, has discombobulated the Warriors into forced and unforced turnovers. The trapping on a less than 100 percent Curry leads to erratic passing, leads to fast breaks, leads to crowd explosions.
A staple in this historic two-year run for Golden State has been their sense of calm under pressure, their uncanny knack for getting hot at the right time. Russ, KD and the awesome Oklahoma City crowd have stolen their resolve. Don't count on them giving it back. Sure, the next game is in Oakland and a Game 7 would be too, if the Earth's rotation reversed and we somehow got to a Game 7. But there's simply no coming back from this type of utter embarrassment in two straight conference finals games. The Warriors are beaten just as absolutely as those 2014 Heat were going into Game 5 in San Antonio.
So, Thunder in 5. Imagine the odds you could have gotten on that bet. Almost as juicy as picking a Thunder-Raptors Finals. Sheesh. The NBA universe is inverted. Pull the wool from over your eyes. Time is a flat circle (maybe this has to do with Matthew McConaughey and his damn Lincoln ads).
Prove me wrong Dubs, please. We've been looking forward to the Western Conference Finals all season. Congrats to OKC and all, but five games is a colossal rip-off for NBA junkies. What a sad ending to this fairy tale.
How the Unanimous MVP Stacks Up Historically (Plus Playoff Rankings)
May 12, 2016 June 13, 2016 ~ dnathanfati	~ Leave a comment
The MVP's ridiculous heat map resembles a sinister smiley face. Coincidence?
Welcome back, Steph. The playoffs missed you.
While the NBA's first unanimous MVP recovered from a sprained MCL, we watched the Cavs throttle the Hawks in four games and a Heat-Raptors death march featuring injured centers, inefficient guards and dubious late-game coaching. The Steph-less Warriors played some entertaining games with Portland, but it was palpable that something was lacking. Meanwhile, Thunder-Spurs is the one second round series that has been good for consistent thrills, but unfortunately they can't play that series every night. This all came after an underwhelming round one, where even the Game 7's were lackluster.
But the Baby-Faced Assassin is back, and he wasted no time reminding us why we fell in love with him to begin with. His 4th quarter and overtime performance in Game 4 was legendary.
Every historically great player is able to quiet a hostile crowd in the playoffs. Steph didn't just quiet the Portland faithful – he ripped their hearts out, poked them in the eyes and slapped their mamas. The man turned billionaire Paul Allen into a damn meme:
As an encore, Curry finished off the Blazers in Game 5 singlehandedly down the stretch. His ability to hit step-back threes over bigger defenders is beyond description at this point. It used to be absurd that he would even take these shots – now you just expect them all to go in. He doesn't even have his feet squared up to the basket on this backbreaking, series-winning dagger on Al-Farouq Aminu:
Aminu, who had a great shooting series in his own right, learned the perils of tugging on Superman's cape. If you recall, Aminu stared down a street-clothes-dressed Curry in Game 3 after draining a corner three.
Yea, not a great move. Curry of course got the last laugh. Don't spit into the wind…and don't mess around with Slim.
Curry's second-straight MVP campaign has been so transcendent, I'm not sure NBA fans could've gotten over it if they were cheated out of watching him do his thing in the playoffs. From Game 1 to Game 82, this Curry season has felt historic. 73 wins. 402 threes. A top-10 all-time PER. 50-45-90 shooting percentages. His value is unique because he can dominate a game while still operating within the confines of the Warriors' offense. The ball doesn't stick in his hands. To wit, per SportVu stats on NBAsavant.com, Curry ranked 69th in average dribbles per touch (3.613) and 73rd in average touch time (3.816 seconds). Remember Curry led the league in scoring yet played under 35 minutes per game. Just how the hell does he pull that off without playing hero ball exclusively? It just doesn't compute.
So let's turn our attention to the historical context of this special MVP season.
I looked at 29 other famous MVP campaigns in an effort to compare where Curry ranks by the numbers. The criteria I chose to consider: PER, counting stats titles, Win Shares, Value Over Replacement Player, Box Plus/Minus and Team Wins. I'm simply adding them up without weighing any value higher than another, because I barely passed College Algebra. I did give a player 5 points for each counting stats title they won during their MVP season. The sum total is what I call the MVP Quotient. *Note: steals, blocks, VORP, BPM are not available for Oscar Robertson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar or Wilt Chamberlain. I estimated 11 BPM and 10 VORP for each.
As you can see, Curry grades out at the very top of the list. Above 1971-72 Kareem, 1995-96 Jordan, 1985-86 Bird, 2008-09 & 2012-13 LeBron. I'm always highly cognizant of the perils of recency bias, which is what led me to this exercise in the first place. But the numbers back up Curry's case for the greatest offensive season of all time and, at the very least, a top-5 all-time MVP season. A season for the ages. My grandkids will hear plenty of stories about 2015-16 Steph.
Side note or two: How awesome was LeBron's 2008-09 season? The 4th-best ever PER and it ranks 5th on this list even though he didn't get any 5-point boosts for a counting stats title. It's also cool to see how LBJ and Jordan dominate with seven of the top 12 MVP seasons on this list.
Playoff Power Rankings
Cleveland Cavaliers (Beat Hawks 4-0) – Just rolling through the East, licking their chops at the Heat-Raptors slap fight.
Oklahoma City Thunder (Lead Spurs 3-2) – Amazingly have won 3 of after getting trounced in Game 1. They need to close it out in Game 6, as a third straight victory in San Antonio is highly unlikely.
Golden State Warriors (Beat Blazers 4-1) – Portland was a handful, even for five games, but now they get some rest. We'll see how Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green heal up from minor injuries. The West Finals will be a bloodbath.
San Antonio Spurs (Trail Thunder 3-2) – Reeling and on the ropes. But you can never count out the Spurs until the last buzzer sounds on their elimination. Wouldn't be surprised if they win Games 6 and 7, but their offense needs an injection of life to do so.
Toronto Raptors (Lead Heat 3-2) – They should beat the Heat without Hassan Whiteside. Their prize is the Cleveland slaughter.
Miami Heat (Trail Raptors 3-2) – Terrible luck with Chris Bosh and now Whiteside and Luol Deng banged up. We'll see if vintage Dwyane Wade returns to help force a Game 7.
Portland Trail Blazers (Lost to Warriors 4-1)
Atlanta Hawks (Lost to Cavs 4-0)
Playoff Rankings: Round 2 Rout is On
May 5, 2016 June 13, 2016 ~ dnathanfati	~ Leave a comment
The cream has officially risen to the top. Here I thought Round 2 was going to be all-out war but – though things could change as the four series shift to the lower seed's building – the rout is on. Cleveland has gone to another level. If they can sustain 85% of this 3-point production, they have a shot against Golden State. The Spurs go to Oklahoma tied but look to be in a class above the Thunder. An MVP-less Warriors team is mostly rolling through Portland. We shouldn't be surprised. This entire season there have been three teams at the top, and they're still looking down on the rest of the league. Now, Steph Curry looks to be coming back sooner than expected (hooray for blood spinning!). Here's where we currently stand.
Cleveland Cavaliers (Lead Atlanta 2-0) – Broke the record for made threes in a playoff game last night (25) in a 123-98 rout of the Hawks. After watching Atlanta throttle Boston in Game 5, I tweeted the following:
The Hawks can beat the Cavs
— D. Nathan Fatigato (@DNFonNBA) April 27, 2016
San Antonio Spurs (Tied with OKC 1-1) – The messy ending to Game 2 was glorious and bottom line is the Spurs squandered a great chance to win that game with numbers in transition. Playing in OKC is no picnic. But now the Spurs are mad. You can rely on the following equation: Gregg Popovich>Billy Donovan. Spurs in 7 (if not 6).
Golden State Warriors (Lead Portland 2-0) – An amazing fourth quarter brought them back after trailing by 17 points in Game 2. Draymond Green is vaulting to another level and Klay Thompson is staking his claim to the title of best two-way shooting guard in the league. Look for more Festus Ezeli going forward (finally). The Blazers should win one at home, but this series won't make it past Game 5. Steph should be brought back with discretion, as the Warriors can clearly beat this team without him.
Miami Heat (Lead Toronto 1-0) – Dwyane Wade's renaissance has been a joy to watch. If Kyle Lowry can't magically turn his shot back on, the Raptors are toast. Miami's best player and coach know how to win this time of year. It's worth keeping an eye on Wade's and Hassan Whiteside's knees going forward. Word is both are fine, but a setback could change the series.
Oklahoma City Thunder (Tied with San Antonio 1-1) – To pull out this series over a 67-win Spurs juggernaut, Russell Westbrook will need to impose his will as he did early in Game 2. Tony Parker simply can't keep up with him. The "let LaMarcus get his" strategy is interesting especially since it helps put a clamp on Playoffs Danny Green and Playoffs Patty Mills. Even though the series is tied 1-1, I get the feeling they need to win both these next two games at home. They stole one in San Antonio and I don't think they'll get another in the Alamo.
Toronto Raptors (Trailing Miami 1-0) – Sad Kyle Lowry stayed in the empty arena after Game 1 working on his jumper. Let's hope that helps him turn things around. Jonas Valanciunas was great in Game 1, but how much of that was due to Whiteside not being 100 percent? Norman Powell needs to make an impact in this series, but at the end of the day their fate will be tied to Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
Atlanta Hawks (Trailing Cleveland 2-0) – I believed. Then Earl Smith III destroyed my faith. The Hawks can't keep Thabo Sefolosha on the floor due to his poor shooting, and unfortunately he's the only Hawk that can even pretend to guard LeBron. I expect Paul Millsap and Al Horford to perform better in Atlanta, but it won't be enough. The Cavs death train rolls on.
Portland Trail Blazers (Trailing GSW 2-0) – The Blazers have already overachieved. They may win a game at home with their great crowd, but Golden State is on a collision course with San Antonio. They always have been. Great job this season by Terry Stotts and Damian Lillard. They have good things ahead, but need to round out their roster in the offseason.