At Moody's Analytics, we are leveraging our credit risk expertise and long history of data and modeling to address the ever-growing demand for more insightful analytics. We are currently evaluating the predictive outcome of these alternative datasets as they are applied to various stages of the credit process. Given the promising results so far, we believe this is the future of more powerful decisioning capabilities within the financial industry.
The presentation discussed strategic and tactical considerations when creating a CECL modeling approach. We discuss the approach of adapting models built from industry/peer group data and then examine leveraging bank internal ratings and industry data for both C&I and CRE portfolios.
In this webinar, a panel of research and data scientist experts across Moody's Analytics discuss social data in probability of default modeling, closed and open data for location scoring, and text analytics for credit risk.
Private firm default rates have declined steadily during the past five years. At 1.5%, the rolling 12-month default rate is down 73% from its September 2009 peak of 5.3%. This trend has been driven primarily by a decline in the charge-off rate, now at its lowest level in the past ten years. In addition, the rate of borrowers in non-accrual status has decreased 53% since September 2009. Banks downgraded 17% of borrowers on their internal rating scales during the past year, compared to 15% in 2016.