Today, the Economic Innovation Group (EIG) released a new report revealing how unprecedented demographic challenges are impacting regional economies through the housing market, local government finances, and depressed rates of business dynamism. "From Managing Decline to Building the Future," authored by Adam Ozimek of Moody's Analytics and EIG's Kenan Fikri and John Lettieri, documents how population loss is not just a symptom of economic challenges in many communities, but also a direct cause — one that deserves urgent attention from policymakers. The authors propose a new type of place-based policy — the "Heartland Visa" — as an innovative solution for connecting skilled immigrants to welcoming communities impacted by demographic trends and underserved by current immigration policy.
In spite of major demographic challenges facing much of the country, there are reasons for optimism. Counties with shrinking or stagnating populations still account for 11 percent of GDP – nearly equivalent to the national output of Canada. Many cities impacted by these trends still retain strong economic foundations and significant untapped potential. The Heartland Visa would provide a catalyst to places contending with demographic headwinds. Under such a program, eligible communities would "opt-in," and visa-holders would live and work in the eligible region of their choice without being tied to a specific employer. During that time they would build social networks and put down roots in their host communities as an on-ramp towards permanent residency and full labor mobility.
Local leaders understand the need for new tools to help address regional demographic trends and unlock the full potential of their communities.
U.S. population growth has fallen to 80-year lows. The country now adds approximately 900,000 fewer people each year than it did in the early 2000s. The last decade marks the first time in the past century that the United States has experienced low population growth and low prime working age growth on a sustained basis at the same time.