Paul A. Anderson, General Manager South-East Asia/International Sales Manager, Genesus Inc.
Pork Producers Weekly Liveweight Prices as of December 14, 2020 (NET Price)
Total sow population of the Philippines before ASF was in the region of 1,485,000 sows (Commercial=379,345 and Backyard=1,105,655) with Luzon holding nearly 49%, made up of North/Central Luzon: 25.95% and South Luzon: 22.56%.
ASF hit Luzon very hard, in North Central Luzon the sow population has reduced by 75.9% leaving just 39,860 sows, and in South Luzon the sow population has reduced by 64.2% leaving just 43,450 sows.
The other main regions of the Philippines thst have seen reductions in their commercial production are Visayas (3.4%) and Mindanao (6.3%). Overall the commercial pig production in the Philippines is down 55%.
Some of the commercial pig producers in Luzon are now planning to restock their empty farms commencing in 2021- this is just the start to rebuild the Philippine Pig Industry. Following the devastation ASF has caused, lessons have been learned about the need to increase farm bio-security. The restocking with a healthy breeding stock of high genetic value and suitable for the local climate should see these restocked farms performing better than they ever did and with a reduced cost of production.
Pig Producers in the Philippines should continue to enjoy good profits during 2021 which will be a year of tight pork supplies.
Pig price plunges in Thailand as exports slow down. Pig price in Thailand plunged to around $2.00 per kg in December, from a high of $2.8 per kg in October. Export plunge as well as a result of Cambodia's curb on the number of Thai exporters authorized to export pigs thru the country with Vietnam as the final destination.
Cambodia's tighter restrictions on Thai shippers are aimed at better controlling disease transmission between the countries. However, Cambodian's move sparked a protest with about 50 Thai exporters who were left out of business. They said the approved shippers belong to a few groups of companies trying to monopolize the border trade of live pigs. The same groups also tried to convince the Laotian government to allow only their members to ship live pigs from Thailand to Vietnam via Laos. But the Laotian government declined. Attempting to monopolize live pig exports would distort the pig price in Thailand, said the protestors. This would not be beneficial to the pig producers in Thailand.
Meanwhile, Thailand is expected to gain $750 million in live pig and pork exports this year (2020). This is a 300% increase year-on-year. The country would ship 2.2 million pigs and 54,000 tonnes of pork throughout the year, as reported the Department of Livestock Development (DLD).
The DLD said Thailand produces 55,000 pigs/day from which 5000 pigs are exported as live and processed pork.
Current pig price is 68,000 – 74,000vnd/kg in the North; 67,000 – 71,000 vnd/kg in the center and 68,000 – 70,000 vnd/kg in the South. Average will be around 70,000vnd/kg.
It is estimated that the total pig inventory by September 2020 has increased by about 3.6% over the same period last year. Though the output of live-weight pork for the first nine months of 2020 is estimated at 2.48 million tons, down 3.2% over the same period in 2019 and only in the third quarter of 2020 has reached 846,200 tons – an increase of 9.7% compared to the third quarter 2019.
According to calculations from the General Department of Customs, in the first 8 months of 2020, Vietnam imported 64,660 tons of fresh, chilled, or frozen pork, worth $152.56 million, up 272.6% in volume and an increase of 352.6% in value over the same period in 2019 (source: www.vietdvm.com)
In Quang Binh Provine, between November 22, 2020 and December 17, 2020 there were reported ASF outbreaks at 19 backyard farm and as a cosequence 116 animals destroyed (source: vietnambiz.vn). Even so, Vietnams epidemic of African Swine seems now to be controlled, and the pig herd is gradually recovering, but the restocking is still slow. Price for breeding animals has been continuously high since the beginning of the year, so restock is mainly concentrated in large farms.
According to Vietnam's experts', if conditions are favorable, around the third quarter of 2021, Vietnam will have a vaccine against African Swine Fever (source: vietnambiz.vn).