2012 Baseball Guide
2012 MLB Preview Podcast Appearance
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I was a guest with Mike Silva last night on his New York Baseball Digest Podcast. You can listen below, download from I-Tunes or listen on Mike's site.
We talked about everything for 2012 including the Red Sox, Bobby Valentine, the Yankees, Alex Rodriguez, the Mets, the Nationals, the Tigers, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, Neftali Feliz, the Braves, the Mets, the Phillies, Bryce Harper, the Marlins, Jose Reyes, the Reds, the Rockies, Troy Tulowitzki and many other things.
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March 29, 2012 Paul Lebowitz Tagged 2012 Baseball Guide, 2012 Baseball Preview, Bobby Valentine, Braves, Bryce Harper, Fantasy, Jose Reyes, Marlins, Mets, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Silva, MLB, Neftali Feliz, NYBD, Phillies, Podcast appearance, Predictions, Prince Fielder, Rangers, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, roto, Troy Tulowitzki, Yu Darvish	Leave a comment
Bryce Harper In Center Field is a Bad Idea
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It's good to know that Davey Johnson hasn't entered the realm of the elderly manager.
Given how thin he looks and that his voice seemed to be a shell of what it once was after taking over the Nationals last summer, it's still a question as to how much of a managerial fastball he has left and if he's going to maintain his energy throughout the season. I might be reminiscing about the manager of the 1980s Mets who dealt with a star-studded, young and out-of-control team that was lucky to stay out of jail while they were playing.
Their scrapes with the law (and more) had to wait until their playing careers were over: see Dwight Gooden, Lenny Dykstra, Darryl Strawberry and Wally Backman.
Now he's having a spring training look at Bryce Harper in center field and is insistent that there's a legitimate chance that the 19-year-old will make the big league club to start the season.
Can Harper play center field?
Johnson thinks he can and the youngster played 20 games at the position in A-ball last season.
But is it a good idea?
Johnson doesn't have the greatest history with adhering to reality when he believes in something strongly and that's a detriment to being a truly great manager. In Johnson's category of managers are Jim Leyland and Tony LaRussa who at times blindly stuck to failing strategies rather than acknowledge that they were wrong about anything. They clung to decisions they made even if they were hurting the team.
Johnson is the same man who, as manager of the Mets, stuck Kevin Mitchell and Howard Johnson at shortstop; continually wrote Gregg Jefferies's name in the lineup when he needed to be sent down; put Keith Miller in center field; and absolutely refused to tell Strawberry to move from his Shea Stadium strawberry patch of faded grass which was his position—within a 15 foot radius—against every hitter on every pitch.
Johnson's ego was part of the reason he was such a successful manager and able to keep that Mets group in line to a certain degree, but it was also part of the reason that most of his teams faltered at the end. Had the 1980s Mets paid a bit more attention to defense and fundamentals rather than starting pitching and home runs, they could've won more than one championship.
Johnson needs a rein on his over-the-top calls. It seems that the Nationals are entertaining the thought of having Harper break camp with the big league team.
If they deem him ready physically and especially emotionally; if they feel he can help the team contend, then by all means they should do it. But in center field?
If they bring him North, Jayson Werth can play center field and Harper can play right. With all the scrutiny that will surround him, Harper doesn't need to be learning a new position for a team that expects to win and a veteran pitching staff hounding him if he fails to make a play that an experienced center fielder would make.
Johnson needs someone to check him. In his other managerial stops, Johnson would be told to do something by upper management, then ignore it when he wrote the lineup cards.
He's a great manager, but he's made the same mistakes before. It shouldn't happen again.
Click here to listen to my appearance with Les Norman on Breakin' the Norm.
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March 16, 2012 Paul Lebowitz Tagged 2012 Baseball Guide, 2012 baseball predictions, 2012 fantasy, Bryce Harper, Bryce Harper center field, Bryce Harper centerfield, Darryl Strawberry, Davey Johnson, Davey Johnson manager, Davey Johnson manager Mets, Dwight Gooden, Gregg Jefferies, HoJo, Howard Johnson, Jayson Werth, Jim Leyland, Keith Miller, Kevin Mitchell, Lenny Dykstra, Nats, Paul Lebowitz, Tony LaRussa, Wally Backman, Washington Nationals	4 Comments
Bard or Feliz?
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ESPN has a video piece wonder which converted reliever will be a better starting pitcher, Daniel Bard of the Red Sox or Neftali Feliz of the Rangers.
(I didn't watch the clip. It's here if you'd like to see it.)
There are multiple factors to determine which pitcher is the better option for fantasy players and is likely to be better for his respective team on the field.
Minor league success/failure.
Bard was a terrible starter in the minors—stats.
Feliz was a good starter in the minors—stats.
Obviously that doesn't mean that either pitcher is going to be good or bad as a starter in the big leagues, but the best determinative factor in how a player will do in the future is how he did in the past.
Feliz, as a starter in the Braves and Rangers organizations put up excellent stats across the board with a low ERA regularly under 3, massive strikeout/innings pitched numbers and good control.
Bard was not good as a starting pitcher.
He had no idea where the ball was going; he walked far more batters that innings pitched; he didn't strike anyone out.
As relievers, both were good. Feliz was able to handle closing whereas Bard wasn't. Once he moved to the bullpen in Double-A, Bard was lights out. He racked up the strikeouts, threw strikes and had excellent hits/innings pitched ratios.
The main difference is this: Bard was bad as a starter and good as a reliever but unable to close; Feliz was good as a starter and a closer in the big leagues for a team that won back-to-back pennants.
Bard and Feliz both have the aresnal to be good starting pitchers.
Bard has a high-90s fastball, a slider and a changeup. As a reliever, the changeup was rarely used but he'll have to use it as a starter. It's a touch-and-feel pitch that requires timing, concentration, the same fastball arm action and command.
Feliz has a high-90s four seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a changeup and a slider. It's a starter's repertoire.
Injury history.
Health wise, Bard hasn't had any issues in his three years in the big leagues; Feliz on the other hand missed two weeks in late April-early May of the 2011 season with shoulder inflammation possibly caused by the haphazard non-decision of "will he start or relieve?" the Rangers pulled in spring training of 2011.
The Rangers are generally savvy and gutsy with their pitchers, but the wishy-washy "we'll let him start in the spring, then decide" was absurd. Now, with Joe Nathan onboard, the decision was smartly made in the winter for Feliz to start, period.
Limits.
The Rangers and Red Sox aren't going to push either pitcher too hard, but the Rangers are more flexible with their innings limits and pitch counts than the Red Sox are.
It's been an ongoing debate as to which club's development apparatus is better. The Red Sox build their pitchers up gradually; the Rangers push their young starters deeper into games with higher pitch counts.
It's hard to argue with either given their success rates. The Red Sox developed both Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz using their techniques and gradual buildups; the Rangers have developed Matt Harrison and Derek Holland and they've converted Alexi Ogando and C.J. Wilson from the bullpen to the rotation successfully.
The Red Sox moved Derek Lowe from the bullpen to the rotation, but that was ten years ago and it was before the new, stat/study-heavy regime took command.
If you're looking for greater depth, Feliz is more likely to pitch 180 innings than Bard is. Bard will be handled very carefully. Feliz will be free form.
Team needs.
The Rangers are deep enough in their rotation—even with the departure of Wilson—to keep an eye on Feliz and not feel the need to bend the rules in order to win.
The Red Sox aren't in that position. Their rotation is notoriously short after Josh Beckett and Lester. Buchholz is returning from a fracture in his back and they're having an audition for the fifth starter between foundlings, journeyman and eventually Daisuke Matsuzaka.
With the way both teams are constructed, that the Rangers are more cohesive and organized and the Red Sox still in the middle of what can only be described as chaos, it's clear that the better choice and higher immediate upside is Feliz.
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March 10, 2012 Paul Lebowitz Tagged 2012 Baseball Guide, 2012 baseball predictions, 2012 baseball projections, Alexi Ogando, Bard minor leagues stats as starter, Bard starter, Boston Red Sox, C.J. Wilson, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Daniel Bard, Derek Holland, Derek Lowe, Feliz minor league stats as starter, Feliz starter, Feliz vs Bard, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Limits on Bard, Limits on Feliz, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz, Paul Lebowitz's 2012 Baseball Guide, Rangers, Red Sox, Red Sox chaos, Texas Rangers	10 Comments
David Samson's Controversial Comments(?)
It's an easy story to write and create a buzz to report that Marlins' team president David Samson made a series of ill-advised comments about everyone in Miami from the politicians to the citizens to one of his club's new stars, Jose Reyes.
Samson's reputation as a person isn't sterling. He's a Little Napoleon-type who lucked his way into baseball when his father-in-law Jeffrey Loria purchased the Montreal Expos, wound up as a high-ranking member of their front office and moved on to the Marlins when Loria took control of that club.
Samson has a lot to say, interferes in baseball decisions, and bosses the players around.
But in this case, I believe he's telling the truth when he says he was misquoted by Miami Today.
You can read a synopsis of the initial comments attributed to Samson and the explanation here on USA Today's Daily Pitch.
Loria and, by extension, Samson made out like bandits on the deal for the Marlins' new stadium; I don't think anyone has a high regard for politicians anywhere; and while it's possible that Reyes said something to the tune of wanting to maximize his contract, I doubt he said it in the context that the Samson quotes imply.
But here's the reality: Samson does seem to think he's the smartest guy in the room.
Politicians are seen to be self-interested and more clever and shady than smart.
Reyes did want to make as much money as he could.
No one's ever accused the Marlins of running a charity. They're looking to make money and run their club as a business. It's not a public trust; in general, the Florida fans aren't interested in baseball; the team wasn't going to get a stadium if they didn't use a little chicanery; and they're one ownership that openly does what other clubs do but never admit—treat the players like chattel.
It certainly would be refreshing for a person in power to say the things Samson was accused of saying, but when he denies and explains he sounds like a man telling the truth.
As disliked as he is, he's not stupid—at least not stupid enough to say that stuff publicly even if it's more than likely what he actually thinks.
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March 9, 2012 Paul Lebowitz Tagged 2012 baseball analysis, 2012 Baseball Guide, 2012 baseball predictions, 2012 Baseball Preview, 2012 Fantasy Baseball projections, Bobby Valentine, David Samson, David Samson comments, David Samson Miami Today, David Samson's comments; Paul Lebowitz's 2012 Baseball Guide, Jeffrey Loria, Jose Reyes, Marlins, Miami Marlins, Miami Today, USA Today	Leave a comment
2012 Preview/Guide—Texas Rangers
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2011 Record: 96-66; 1st place, American League West.
Defeated Tampa Bay Rays in ALDS 3 games to 1.
Defeated Detroit Tigers in ALCS 4 games to 2.
Lost to St. Louis Cardinals in World Series 4 games to 3.
2011 Recap:
Despite losing Cliff Lee from the 2010 American League pennant winners, the Rangers again rolled to the division title in the AL West, knocked out the Rays in the ALDS and the Tigers in the ALCS.
They came within one strike of winning the World Series in the ninth inning of game 6 before the Cardinals tied the game against closer Neftali Feliz.
The Rangers scored 2 runs in the top of the tenth on a home run by Josh Hamilton and again were within one strike of winning the World Series and the Cardinals tied the game again.
In the bottom of the eleventh, David Freese homered to win the game for the Cardinals.
The Cardinals won game 7 and the World Series.
2012 ADDITIONS:
RHP Joe Nathan signed a 2-year, $14.75 million contract with club option for 2013. (Twins)
RHP Yu Darvish's rights were purchased from Japan for $51.7 million and he signed a 6-year, $56 million contract.
1B Brandon Snyder was purchased from the Baltimore Orioles.
OF/1B Brad Hawpe signed a minor league contract. (Padres)
RHP Sean Green signed a minor league contract. (Brewers)
LHP Mitch Stetter signed a minor league contract. (Brewers)
OF Kyle Hudson signed a minor league contract. (Orioles)
OF/1B Conor Jackson signed a minor league contract. (Red Sox)
LHP Joe Beimel signed a minor league contract. (Pirates)
C Luis Martinez was acquired from the San Diego Padres.
RHP Greg Reynolds was acquired from the Colorado Rockies.
INF Luis Hernandez signed a minor league contract. (Mets)
LHP Neal Cotts signed a minor league contract.
2012 SUBTRACTIONS:
LHP C.J. Wilson was not re-signed. (Angels)
OF Endy Chavez was not re-signed. (Orioles)
LHP Darren Oliver was not re-signed. (Blue Jays)
C Matt Treanor was not re-signed. (Dodgers)
RHP Darren O'Day was claimed off waivers by the Baltimore Orioles.
C Taylor Teagarden was traded to the Baltimore Orioles.
RHP Brandon Webb was not re-signed.
RHP Tim Wood was not re-signed. (Pirates)
INF Andres Blanco was not re-signed. (Nationals)
1B/OF Chad Tracy was traded to the Colorado Rockies.
2012 PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION: Colby Lewis; Derek Holland; Neftali Feliz; Yu Darvish; Matt Harrison; Alexi Ogando.
2012 PROJECTED BULLPEN: Joe Nathan; Mike Adams; Koji Uehara; Scott Feldman; Mark Lowe; Michael Kirkman; Yoshinori Tateyama; Joe Beimel; Sean Green.
2012 PROJECTED LINEUP: C-Mike Napoli; 1B-Mitch Moreland; 2B-Ian Kinsler; 3B-Adrian Beltre; SS-Elvis Andrus; LF-David Murphy; CF-Josh Hamilton; RF-Nelson Cruz; DH-Michael Young.
2012 PROJECTED BENCH: C-Yorvit Torrealba; OF-Julio Borbon; OF-Craig Gentry; 1B-Brandon Snyder; C-Luis Martinez; OF/1B-Conor Jackson
2012 POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTORS: RHP-Greg Reynolds; RHP-Jacob Brigham; INF-Luis Hernandez; RHP-Cody Eppley; LHP-Miguel De Los Santos; RHP-Justin Miller; LHP-Martin Perez; RHP-Neil Ramirez; RHP-Matthew West; OF-Engel Beltre; OF/1B-Brad Hawpe; LHP-Mitch Stetter; OF-Kyle Hudson; OF/1B-Brad Nelson; LHP-Neal Cotts.
FANTASY PICKS: RHP-Joe Nathan; RHP-Yu Darvish; RHP-Neftali Feliz; RF-Nelson Cruz; RHP-Alexi Ogando.
The new ownership group led by team president Nolan Ryan along with GM Jon Daniels has authored a case study in how to rebuild a financially strapped and moribund franchise from nothing to the dominant team in the American League within a reasonable budget.
Ryan, having been one of the best and most durable pitchers in the history of baseball and definitely not babied as pitchers are today, has implemented a new strategy of letting the pitchers pitch rather than utilize a random number of pitches and innings to limit their development.
There's still something to be said for proper mechanics and common sense in conjunction with the application of new science.
Because Ryan is a Hall of Famer and running the team, he's in a unique position to try something different and be responsible for the aftermath¾good or bad.
Daniels overcame a rocky start as GM when he made perhaps one of the worst trades in the history of the game sending Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young to the Padres for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.
He has since become intelligent and flexible in finding players through the draft; made brilliant trades of his own star players like Mark Teixeira and brought in multiple pieces like Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Neftali Feliz that expedited the rebuilding process.
The Rangers put together a deep farm system that has allowed them to make in-season acquisitions of terrific set-up man Mike Adams and to be involved in pursuing Carlos Beltran.
This front office is willing to spend money and take risks regardless of what outsiders say as they showed when they won the bidding for Yu Darvish and signed Joe Nathan to move Feliz into the starting rotation.
The Rangers are one of the best run clubs in baseball because of the diversity in the front office and willingness to do things using the old and new schools of thought.
Oh, and they added Greg Maddux to the front office as a special assistant this past winter.
It's funny how Ron Washington was laughed at and ridiculed until those who know absolutely nothing about the inner workings of a baseball clubhouse and the type of methods and messages that get through to players heard the recorded pep talk Washington gave to his club before game 7 of the World Series.
More than once self-proclaimed baseball "experts" who know how to calculate a player's OPS while he's running to first base after a single to left field said they found a new "respect" for Washington for that profane and hilarious tirade about what his team was going to do to Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter.
Of course they lost. Of course one could point to several strange decisions Washington made in the course of the series that might've cost the team the World Series. But that's irrelevant. Even before he failed the drug test in 2010 and came up with the preposterous excuse that it was the first time he'd tried cocaine (that's backward lottery-level unlucky), the players always loved Washington and played hard for him because they know he has their backs.
Sometimes it's more important for the players to do whatever they can to win for their manager than it is to have a strategic genius they don't want to play for.
The Rangers front office gives Washington the players to win, they let him have the statistics he needs to know and they let him do his job. The end result has been two consecutive AL pennants and you can't argue with those results.
In January of 2012, Washington was rewarded with a 2-year contract extension through 2014.
STARTING PITCHING:
With the departure of C.J. Wilson to the Angels, the Rangers are dealing with an All-Star pitcher's departure. They don't have a specific "ace" of their staff…yet. But Neftali Feliz and Yu Darvish both have the potential.
For right now, the veteran Colby Lewis should be considered their number one and the anchor.
Lewis returned from Japan in 2010 and was their most consistent pitcher in that year's playoffs.
Last season, he went 14-10 and his overall numbers look far worse than they did in 2010, but it's misleading. He did allow a league-leading 35 homers, but his ERA was bloated to 4.40 by games in which he got punished for 9, 6, 7 and 6 earned runs. Apart from that, he was consistently good. In 200 innings, he allowed 187 hits with 56 walks and struck out 169. Lewis doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he knows how to pitch and work his way out of trouble.
He's a free agent at the end of the 2012 season.
25-year-old lefty Derek Holland was brilliant in the ALDS and the World Series. During the regular season, he led the American League with 4 shutouts and went 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA and 162 strikeouts in 198 innings. Holland has a mid-90s fastball, a changeup, a slider and a curve. Holland has All-Star and Cy Young Award-contending potential.
The Rangers flirted with the idea of shifting Neftali Feliz into the starting rotation last year by letting him start in spring training, he moved back into the bullpen and endured some shoulder trouble that might have been as a result of the abrupt changes back and forth.
The Rangers knew that the decision had to be made once and for all. The ambiguity of not having a big league closer to replace Feliz and to leave the job open to made it a possibility that Feliz would have to move back out of necessity. That was solved when they signed veteran Joe Nathan and officially moved Feliz into the rotation to stay.
The Rangers have experience with transitioning relievers to the starting rotation successfully after doing so with Wilson and Alexi Ogando.
Feliz also might have had shellshock from blowing game 6 of the World Series after two were out, so it's best to take him from that pressure-packed role and let him start. He's only about to turn 24 in May and with his arsenal of pitches¾a fastball that's reached 100-mph, a cutter, a slider and a changeup¾he'll be able to mix and match and change speeds more effectively than he could as a reliever.
He's probably going to be limited in his innings, but he racks up the strikeouts and will make the shift well.
When I first heard the stories about Yu Darvish, all I could think about was the misplaced and retrospectively inaccurate hype about the likes of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Irabu. Because of that, I was dubious as to whether teams should spend the vast amount of cash up front simply to win his rights and then pay him what amounted to a free agent contract.
The total amount for Matsuzaka wound up at over $100 million and it promised to be that much or more for Darvish.
I would've refrained from pursuit.
Then I watched video clips of Darvish pitching and saw that he's going to be a star.
He has a deceptive, power motion and a wide variety of pitches with a fastball, a cutter, a slider, a forkball and a wicked off-speed curve.
Darvish's motion combines the quirkiness of Rick Sutcliffe's wrist hook; the hip turn and leg drive of Tim Lincecum; and the inventiveness and array of stuff of David Cone.
His ethnicity is unique with an Iranian father and Japanese mother, he's a big personality and extremely handsome.
Darvish is going to be a megastar.
Lefty Matt Harrison went 14-9 in 30 starts, pitching 185 innings and allowing 180 hits and only 13 homers. He walked 57 and struck out 126.
He's effective against lefties and righties and for a pitcher to pitch his home games in the hitters' heaven of Arlington to only allow 13 homers is amazing.
Harrison has a fastball that reaches the upper-90s, a changeup, a curve and a cutter and, like Holland, has All-Star potential.
Alexi Ogando was a dominating set-up man in 2010, moved into the rotation in 2011 and made the All-Star team. Ogando was so dominant in the first half (opposing hitters had an OPS of .591) that a good second half looks worse than it is. But a .743 OPS is still good. Ogando has a mid-90s fastball, a changeup and a slider and is murder on right-handed hitters.
The Rangers have six capable starters so they can be cautious with both Feliz and Darvish by occasionally using a six-man rotation to get both accustomed to their new role and surroundings. Doing this would let them refrain from using an innings/pitch limit based on specious numbers and let the workload stay under control more naturally.
BULLPEN:
Veteran closer Joe Nathan was signed 2-year, $14.75 million contract with an option for 2014 to replace Feliz.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2010, Nathan returned as the Twins' closer to start the season, was used cautiously and got off to a bad start in April and May. He went back on the disabled list with a flexor strain in his elbow. He was demoted to set-up man, reinstalled as the main man in July and regained the form that made him one of the best short relievers in baseball over the past decade.
His velocity was back in the 92-93 range after hovering around 90-mph in April and his strikeout numbers were at one-per-inning.
For some pitchers it takes more than the usual one calendar year for them to regain their form following Tommy John and that appears to have been the case with Nathan.
For the Rangers, his signing allows them to get an inexpensive former All-Star with extensive experience (albeit struggles in the post-season, especially against the Yankees) and a potential big time starter in Feliz.
Mike Adams was acquired from the Padres at the trading deadline and was the same dominant set-up man he's been for years with the Padres.
Adams throws one slider after another with a quirky, stressful overhand motion. He's more effective against righties (.439 OPS), but is solid against lefties as well (.538 OPS).
He's had multiple arm problems in the past because of that stressful motion and the reluctance of Washington to use him in the World Series was either strategic ineptitude (possible), or something was bothering Adams which the Rangers did not disclose.
He's a free agent at the end of the season and someone is going to pay him big money as a closer or set-up man if he has a good year with the Rangers and is healthy.
Koji Uehara has been the subject of trade rumors at the time of this writing and the Rangers are listening to offers.
Uehara racks up the strikeouts and throws strikes (85 k's and 9 walks in 65 innings in 2011 with the Rangers and Orioles) and his numbers are almost identical against righties and lefties. He doesn't throw particularly hard (around 89-90 mph), but he has a great split-finger fastball. His one issue¾and it's a big one¾is the home run ball. He allowed only 38 hits in those 65 innings and an absurd 11 home runs. Then he allowed 3 in 1 ⅓ innings in the playoffs.
I think I could hit a homer against him.
Scott Feldman pitched brilliantly in the post-season until the World Series.
Having won 17 games in 2009 by imitating Roy Halladay's motion, Feldman looked like he was going to be a rotation stalwart. Injuries, particularly to his knee, ruined his 2010 and a large chunk of 2011. There was debate as to whether he'd even be on the post-season roster in 2011, but he was and played a key part in the Rangers winning the pennant. He was knocked around in the World Series by the Cardinals.
Having been a starter, the righty Feldman has a starter's arsenal with a sinking fastball, a cutter, a changeup, a slider and a curve.
Mark Lowe allowed the game-winning homer to David Freese in game 6 of the World Series.
Lowe has a high-90s fastball, a changeup and a slider. As a second-tier reliever for the Rangers, in 45 innings, he walked 19 and struck out 42. Lowe allowed 6 homers.
Michael Kirkman is a lefty with a 95 mph fastball, a changeup and a slider. He's put up big strikeout numbers in the minors and held lefties to a .622 OPS and 0 homers in 49 plate appearances last season.
36-year-old Japanese righty Yoshinori Tateyama is a crafty junkballer with a sinking fastball, a change and a curve. In 44 innings, he struck out 43 batters and allowed 8 homers. Lefties beat him up with a .909 OPS, but he held righties to a .189/.230/.274 slash line.
Veteran lefty specialist Joe Beimel signed a minor league contract. The 35-year-old had a bad year for the Pirates in 2011.
He throws across his body and relies on a sinker and slider and, as relievers numbers tend to fluctuate, it's reasonable to think the Beimel could have a comeback season with the Rangers.
Sean Green signed a minor league contract after spending 2011 with the Brewers organization. He was in Triple-A for the majority of the season, but there's no point in judging Green on his past stats and what he's done as he makes the transition from an over-the-top sinkerballer to a sidearmer. As a sidearmer, he can be an effective righty specialist for the Rangers.
I found it laughable that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos was considered a "genius" not just for finding a taker for almost all of Vernon Wells's contract, but also got a productive hitter in Mike Napoli…then none of those who were calling him a genius acknowledged that the Blue Jays didn't think any more of Napoli than the Angels did by spinning him off to the Rangers for Frank Francisco.
Natually, after the year he had, both the Angels and the Blue Jays would've been far better off with the Napoli than Wells or Francisco.
Napoli has a massive year at the plate with a 30 homers in 432 plate appearances with a slash line of .320/.414/.631. That's a ridiculous 1.046 OPS.
To put that in perspective, NL MVP Ryan Braun's OPS was .994; Jose Bautista had a 1.056 OPS.
And before you start thinking that Napoli was a Josh Hamilton-style product of hitting in Rangers Ballpark, he hit better on the road than he did at home.
His numbers were also nearly identical hitting against lefties or righties.
Napoli's BAbip was .344, so he's not going to repeat those numbers, but he's a far better hitter than anyone ever gave him credit for and as a pending free agent, he's going to want to have another big season at age 30.
He's also had a good year defensively and threw out 36% of basestealers.
Napoli isn't fully recovered from a severe ankle sprain suffered in the World Series, but should be good to go at the start of the season.
The Rangers were courting Prince Fielder, but weren't going to match the Tigers' offer. If Victor Martinez's injury hadn't spurred the Tigers to spend big on Fielder, there was a chance that Fielder would've signed a shorter term contract with the Rangers to try and win a championship and be a free agent again in 3-5 years.
With Fielder off the board, the Rangers will again have Mitch Moreland and Napoli playing first base.
Moreland is a player for whom WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is a valuable stat because the Rangers would be able to find a first baseman somewhere or play Michael Young at first regularly and get themselves a DH who'd be more productive than Moreland. Moreland was a -0.2 WAR player last season in spite of hitting 16 homers and 22 doubles. In comparison to other first basemen in baseball, that's not very good. First base is generally a power position.
If Moreland doesn't hit, the Rangers will probably play Young and Napoli at first base and look to upgrade their offense as the season moves along with a power bat.
Don't be surprised to see them pursuing David Wright of the Mets.
Ian Kinsler had his usual extreme home/road splits as he mashed the ball at home with a .933 OPS and posted a .730 on the road. Unlike recent years, though, he had 16 homers at home and 16 on the road.
Kinsler is a very good defensive second baseman, hits plenty of extra base hits and steals 30 bases a year. His average dropped to .255, but his BAbip was .243, so that was bad luck and his average should rebound back to his career numbers of around .275-.285.
It took me awhile to come around as to how good a player Adrian Beltre is. Because Beltre had such a tough time putting up offensive numbers during his time with the Mariners, his numbers were mediocre and his defense wasn't as appreciated as it is today.
Now Beltre is considered one of the best players in baseball and is building a reasonable Hall of Fame case with at least 4-5 productive years in his future.
Beltre won his third Gold Glove and his second Silver Slugger award. He had an .892 OPS with 32 homers and 33 doubles. He took advantage of the friendly confines in Arlington by hitting 23 of his homers and having an OPS of 1.078 at home.
Beltre hit 5 homers in the post-season, including 3 in one game against the Rays. He's a leader on and off the field and was a prescient and brilliant signing for the Rangers.
Elvis Andrus is a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop and stole 37 bases in 2011. The 23-year-old is improving at the plate as he matures and hitting the ball with more authority. Last season, he raised his average .14 points to .279 and his OPS from .643 to .708. Eventually, he's going to hit 8-12 homers to go along with his speed and defense.
David Murphy plays regularly against right-handed pitching. He struggles against lefties.
Against righties in 348 plate appearances, Murphy had a slash line of .296/.348/.461 and hit all of his 11 homers against righties.
Josh Hamilton missed a chunk of the season with a broken arm and it hindered his power and contributed to the decline in his numbers from his MVP season in 2010.
Hamilton still hit 25 homers and drove in 94 runs with an .882 OPS and hit the homer that gave the Rangers the lead in game 6 of the World Series and came within one strike of winning the championship.
He's a great talent.
But none of that is relevant for his 2012 season.
In early February, Hamilton publicly fell off the wagon and had several drinks in a Texas bar/restaurant. This was the first public misstep for Hamilton since 2009 when he was also caught drinking and partying with fans in an Arizona bar.
Hamilton is a free agent at the end of the season and he and the Rangers have tabled talks for an extension. Prior to this, his representatives were implying that they wanted a Prince Fielder-level contract of $200 million. Even before he got caught drinking publicly¾and I don't believe those are the only times he's had a drink ¾I would've hesitated before signing him to a long-term deal and handing him a guarantee of $100+ million regardless of what he does on or off the field.
Now? Forget it.
He can't be trusted.
Much was made of the departure of Hamilton's "accountability partner" (basically his babysitter and sounding board) Johnny Narron, who left to take a job with the Brewers.
Hamilton was functioning without a designated "accountability partner" and had a couple of drinks.
Does that justify it? Is it a viable excuse that because he didn't have someone to say, "NO JOSH!!!" that it's okay that he drank?
Hamilton is a family man with three daughters with his wife (she has another daughter as well). He's an adult. He needs to control himself and understand that he has hundreds of millions of dollars and people depending on him to stay sober and clean. The "accountability partner" or personal problems are not an excuse to go right back into the behaviors that almost destroyed the life of the former number 1 pick in the draft.
I would not sign Hamilton to a massive long-term contract unless he agreed to the unprecedented caveat that if he falls off the wagon and it affects his play, that the contract can be nullified by the team that signs him.
His representatives would never agree to that, but Hamilton might.
Even with that, I'd go as high as 3-years and $60 million, but that's it.
He's a great player. He has to stay straight.
Nelson Cruz missed 28 games last season with multiple leg injuries and his production at the plate dropped from a .950 OPS to .821. He still hit 29 homers during the regular season.
Cruz made up for it in the playoffs as he hit an absurd 6 home runs in the ALCS against the Tigers and was the ALCS MVP. He then hit 2 more in the World Series.
Cruz was held responsible in certain circles for not securing the catchable game-tying triple off the bat of Freese in the bottom of the ninth inning in game 6.
It was a catchable ball, but it was a tough catch. Blaming Cruz is a bit extreme for what would've been a really good play to end the game and the series.
Michael Young suddenly found himself appreciated for what he does rather than ripped for what he doesn't.
Young requested to be traded when he was again asked to move to a new position when they signed Beltre.
Young batted .338 (.367 BAbip), with 213 hits to lead the league. He only had 11 homers, but drove in 106 runs, but had a .380 OBP and .474 slugging.
Young is and always has been a very good hitter who doesn't walk enough to suit the tastes of the new age experts who are permeating baseball and baseball analysis. He's not a great defensive player, but he can play anywhere on the infield and is a well-liked leader in the clubhouse.
BENCH:
Backup catcher Yorvit Torrealba had his usual passable season at the plate and was very good defensively, but that's not the first thing people think of now when hearing his name.
While playing in the Venezuelan League this past winter, Torrealba was arguing a call at home plate and shoved/hit the umpire in his mask. He was immediately suspended from the league for 66 games and the video of the incident went viral.
Torrealba is not Milton Bradley and has never shown this kind of temper. He's a respected and well-liked player and it was a mistake.
There were questions as to what the Rangers were going to do about it, if anything. There's really nothing they can do about it since it was an incident in an entirely separate league and out of the jurisdiction of MLB. If they or the Rangers tried to punish Torrealba the MLBPA would fight it to the last and they'd win.
What will probably happen is that Torrealba will apologize (and I'm sure he's legitimately sorry) and, at the behest of Nolan Ryan, will speak to children at schools about why what he did was wrong.
It was an unfortunate and isolated incident in an otherwise respectable career.
Julio Borbon played regularly in 2010, but missed time in 2011 with hamstring woes.
The lefty batter can play center field and has speed to steal 20 bases. He has no power.
Craig Gentry is a good defensive center fielder with speed. He might see substantial time in 2011 with Hamilton playing left field. Gentry stole 18 bases in 18 tries and he's hit for some pop in the minors and takes his walks. He's 28 and bats right-handed.
Former Orioles' first round pick Brandon Snyder was purchased by the Rangers. The right-handed hitting first baseman has only had 37 big league at bats, but he hit 14 homers and had 21 doubles in Triple-A Norfolk last season.
Catcher Luis Martinez was acquired from the Padres in December. He's 27 and bats righty. He has a career .725 OPS in the minors and has a 33% caught stealing rate.
Conor Jackson signed a minor league contract after spending 2011 with the A's and Red Sox.
Jackson was a first round pick of the Diamondbacks in 2003 and was on his way to becoming an All-Star before injuries and illness derailed him.
In 2008, Jackson hit 12 homers, drove in 75, batted .300 and had a .376 OBP. He was also a good defensive left fielder.
Since then, he's done nothing.
With the A's in 2011, Jackson had a .658 OPS and 4 homers in 368 plate appearances. Perhaps joining the Rangers and hitting in the Ballpark will help him return to form. He'll be 30 in May, so there's time for him to rejuvenate his career.
The Rangers are one of the best run, smartest and most aggressive teams in baseball. They use new age stats and old school trust in common sense by letting their pitchers go deeper into games and throw more pitches than the generally accepted limits that have hindered the development of countless youngsters in other organizations.
On offense, they hit for power, have speed and get on base.
They have a deep starting rotation, a diverse bullpen and are ready and willing to make improvements during the season.
Defensively, they're excellent.
The loss of C.J. Wilson was addressed by the signings of Nathan and Darvish and by moving Feliz into the rotation.
The argument could be made that the team that has won the last two American League pennants is now better than it was in 2010-2011.
In fact, they are.
In spite of the high-profile acquisitions by the Angels, the Rangers are still the best team in the American League and are going to win the AL West and advance to their third straight World Series.
PREDICTED RECORD: 93-69
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March 8, 2012 Paul Lebowitz Tagged 2012 baseball analysis, 2012 Baseball Guide, 2012 Baseball Preview, 2012 fantasy, 2012 MLB, 2012 MLB preview, 2012 roto, 2012 under the radar fantasy picks, Adrian Beltre, Alex Anthopoulos, Alexi Ogando, American League pennant winner 2012, American League predictions, Blue Jays, books on 2012 baseball, C.J. Wilson, Chad Tracy, Colby Lewis, Craig Gentry, David Wright, Derek Holland, Detroit Tigers, Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, Joe Nathan, Jon Daniels, Josh Hamilton, Josh Hamilton contract, Josh Hamilton drinking, Koji Uehara, Mark Lowe, Matt Harrison, Michael Kirkman, Michael Young, Mike Adams, Mike Napoli, Mike Scioscia, Mitch Moreland, Neftali Feliz, Neftali Feliz projections, Neftali Feliz starter, Nelson Cruz, Nolan Ryan, Paul Lebowitz's 2012 Baseball Guide, Predictions 2012 Texas Rangers, Prince Fielder, Rangers, Ron Washington, Scott Feldman, Texas Rangers, Texas Rangers predictions, Tigers, Victor Martinez, Yorvit Torrealba, Yorvit Torrealba incident Venezuela, Yoshinori Tateyama, Yu Darvish, Yu Darvish 2012 predictions, Yu Darvish ethnicity, Yu Darvish Iranian	Leave a comment