David Cameron is the leadership candidate best placed to take on Gordon Brown and lead the Conservatives out of the political wilderness, according to a unique Guardian/ICM study published today.
As Conservatives gather in Blackpool at the start of a conference set to turn into a beauty contest between leadership contenders, Kenneth Clarke emerges as the most divisive potential leader and David Davis as competent but uncharismatic.
Unlike conventional polls, which favour familiar faces by testing what voters already know of the candidates, this study allowed a panel of potential Conservative voters to view candidates in action before judging them. It concentrated on the key target voters the party needs to win over if it is to form a majority at Westminster and is based on extensive research using video film of the three leading contenders putting their cases.
Under the rules of the contest, Tory MPs will choose just two candidates before the entire party membership votes to decide between them. The survey is based on the reactions of a panel of voters of all ages and social groups, none of whom voted Conservative last May but all of whom say they might do so next time.
Although some saw Mr Cameron as bland, shallow or too young for the job, he came across as presentable, confident and trustworthy. He was well ahead as the most likeable candidate and scored particularly heavily as likely to appeal to young voters, where Conservative support is weak.
Only 18% of the panel thought Mr Clarke and Mr Davis appealed to the young, while 54% thought Mr Cameron did so. He beat other candidates too as someone likely to change the image of the Conservative party.
Mr Clarke emerged as the most familiar but also the most controversial candidate, deterring some floating voters as well as attracting others. He scored heavily as a well-known figure, with 66% of the panel recognising him against 25% who recognised Mr Davis and just 4% who recognised Mr Cameron. He also appealed to many as jovial, experienced, genuine, approachable, tough and an effective potential prime minister. But he came across as more arrogant, less trustworthy and possibly less honest, than either of the other two candidates.
Mr Davis attracted many on the panel as smart, trustworthy, confident and young-looking. They saw him as someone who would understand where the Conservatives had gone wrong and he clearly outscored either of the other two on competence.
Only 51% of the panel thought Mr Cameron looked competent, against 56% who thought Mr Clarke was and 62% who thought Mr Davis was. But those strengths were offset by the panel's view of Mr Davis' personality. He came across as rather grey, uncharismatic and someone who voters would find it difficult to relate to. After watching him perform, only 20% of the panel thought Mr Davis charismatic, against 32% who thought Mr Cameron was and 38% for Mr Clarke. That is a clear strength for Mr Clarke and helped make him the first choice for the party leadership of 41% of the panel.
After watching the three in action 31% preferred Mr Cameron as leader and 26% preferred Mr Davis. But the negative attributes associated with Mr Clarke meant he was also seen as the worst leader by more people on the panel, 39%, than either of the other two. Only 30% thought Mr Cameron was the worst candidate and 23% thought Mr Davis was.
The panel was also asked to rate each of the three candidates as a potential prime minister. Mr Cameron emerged as the most popular choice, with an average score of 5.7 out of 10, narrowly ahead of Mr Clarke who got 5.69 and Mr Davis who got 5.58 He also rated strongly as a potential leader against Gordon Brown. His image is strongly different to the chancellor's. If Mr Cameron was Tory leader and Mr Brown prime minister, 50% of the panel said they would lean towards the Conservatives.
Only 41% of the panel said they would favour the Conservatives if Mr Clarke was Tory leader and 43% said they would do so if Mr Davis were leader.
The study, available in full on the Guardian Unlimited website, is based on techniques commonly used by political pollsters in the US. It attempts to discover how voters react to candidates as individuals rather than to the political content of their message, with a panel shown silent film of the candidates in action.
· The poll is based on a panel of 100 selected floating voters. ICM is a member of the British polling council and abides by its rulings.