A rough winter for grain growers on the east coast has led the Australian government commodity forecaster, ABARES, to predict a 12 per cent drop in winter grain production from last year's total.
Released this morning, the latest crop report is tipping winter production — including wheat, barley, canola, pulses and oats, among others — to yield 33.2 million tonnes.
Just two season ago, farmers across Australia's grain growing regions were preparing to reap a record-breaking 59 million tonne harvest.
But this year fortunes will vary wildly depending on what side of the country crops are growing, with drought-sapped crops on the east coast and predictions of a bumper harvest in Western Australia's wheatbelt.
ABARES is not predicting a record crop for WA's farmers because of risks posed by frosts and the likelihood of drier than average conditions through spring, according to senior economist Peter Collins.
"WA farmers have enough moisture in the soil, so that's not going to cause any real dramas, but it could take the cream off the top and stop them getting a record," he said.
The harvest in WA is expected to lift 12 per cent on last year's totals, to 16.3 million tonnes, with a 9.6 million tonne wheat harvest.
In Queensland and New South Wales, the two states hit hardest by drought, production is expected to drop by 38 per cent and 46 per cent, respectivelty, below last year's crop.
"In 2018-19, exceptionally unfavourable seasonal conditions have been limited to Queensland, New South Wales and parts of Victoria and South Australia," the report reads.
September is a critical month for crops, when spring rains can provide major boosts to yields — but it is also a time when the danger of frosts is at its highest.
While little hope remains for crops in New South Wales and Queensland, many in Victoria and South Australia remain on a knife's edge.
The Bureau of Meteorology has estimated the chance of spring rainfall exceeding median is low across Victoria's major cropping regions.
Continued drought conditions in several northern European countries, most notably Germany, resulted in lower production, down 7.5 million tons to 137.5 million," the USDA report read.