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Covid-19 vaccine experiment vs quasi-experiment.
Posted on December 22, 2020 by Emile Gervin
Let's face it. Over-the-counter and prescription drugs are a big market financially. The Covid-19 vaccine has drug manufacturers clamoring for approval from FDA and European Medical Agency. The problems of producing the best Covid-19 vaccine is limited, short clinical trials and new mutations of Covid-19 viruses that are even more contagious than one year ago. A Covid-19 vaccine being authorized right now FOR EMERGENCY USE is not really science at its best. With millions of doses released, emergency use means the clinical trial that manufacturers should have done pre-market. Scientific experiments have regressed to Quasi-experiments. What does that mean?
Having an availability of a Covid-19 vaccine is the first positive step toward mediating this pandemic but getting Pfizer or Moderna Covid-19 vaccine doesn't necessarily mean a victorious cure. It's an increment of many revisions. In many senses, we are participants in a clinical trial of vaccines that should have been tested over past 12 months. We will discover whether these vaccines are empirical science or quasi-science. To what degree are these Covid-19 vaccines true or fake?
The scientific method is based on theories. But in measuring and experimenting with that theory you have to be prepared to disprove the theory. Yet, the best funded, large sample, experiments are usually funded by pharmaceutical manufacturers. They want their product to be the best, or best accepted by doctors and the public. After nearly a year, dozens of companies have been seeking a vaccine for Covid-19. The winner gets many prizes. Are these experiments or quasi-experiments?
A quasi-experiment is an experiment that seems to read as science but is manipulated in one or more ways to come up with an answer, usually based on the sponsor's goal. Experiments are expensive. With businesses granting funds for experimentations, some facts are compromised. A drug to reduce cholesterol may do it but it may kill your liver and muscles. Such is the problem of using a quasi-experiment to state what is a skewed fact.
In a true experiment, participants are randomly assigned to either the treatment or the control group, whereas they are not assigned randomly in a quasi-experiment. Quasi-experiment research designs do not randomly assign participants to treatment or control groups for comparison. Quasi-experiment research involves the manipulation of an independent variable without the random assignment of participants to conditions or orders of conditions. Among the important types are nonequivalent groups designs, pretest-posttest, and interrupted time-series designs. A quasi-experiment research is research that resembles experimental research but is not true experimental research. A quasi-experiment is designed to resemble the scientific method, at least, according to the experiment sponsor.
Quasi-experiments evolved as a term through a series of research studies in validity through early empirical psychology. It impacted social psychology. Donald Campbell privately distributed a paper in 1953 entitled "Designs for
Social Science Experiments."
The special relationship of randomization to internal validity was given such prominence that the term experiment was taken to mean a randomized experiment unless otherwise noted. These )otherwise noted" developed as quasi-experiments or untraditional experiment models. This was a decade before modes of strict ethics impacted psychology experimentation, shifting to other sciences.
Today, ethical science experiments require test-retest under same conditions, with different randomized groups of people to check if similar or different results are found.
Quasi-experiments are most likely to be conducted in field settings in which random assignment is difficult or impossible. They are often conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment—perhaps a type of psychotherapy or an educational intervention. There are many different kinds of quasi-experiments:
Nonequivalent Groups Design, as indicated above.
Pretest-Posttest Design a dependent variable is measured once before the treatment is implemented and once after it is implemented. There is no test/retest or long trial experiment
Combination Designs -There is a treatment group that is given a pretest, receives a treatment, and then is given a posttest. But at the same time there is a control group that is given a pretest, does not receive the treatment, and then is given a posttest. The question, then, is not simply whether participants who receive the treatment improve but whether they improve more than participants who do not receive the treatment.
Then statistics might be skewed to have results favor the sponsor. An example happened over 20 years ago.
News reports flashed that eating grapes improved eye health. A research study showed that grapes are high in Lutein, which is known to improve eye health. As news spread, consumption of grapes, grape juice, and red wine was much higher, The study's sponsor was Welch's – a grape product distributor. That was a quasi-experiment.
Substantial amounts of lutein and zeaxanthin (30–50%) are also present in kiwi fruit, spinach, orange juice, zucchini (or vegetable marrow), and different kinds of squash. And grapes. Subsequent studies over the years prove that these lutein micronutrients are anti-inflammatory and is known to improve or even prevent age-related macular disease which is the leading cause of blindness and vision impairment, according to a 2018 study published 2018 by the USA National Institutes of Health.
Covid-19 is a monster beyond many proportions and a vaccine against it but there's more to finding a Covid-19 vaccine than a quasi-experimental search will deliver. The values gained by Pfizer and Moderna are hopefully well. My fears are that these are placebos or worse. Some real empirical scientific studies need to be done. It could take another year. These Covid-19 vaccine variations may still be derived from philosophical and economic outlooks. The empirical experiment often takes more time.
Today the key feature common to all experiments is still to deliberately vary something so as to discover what happens to something else later-to discover the effects of presumed causes. Covid-19 has many. Impatience or deadlines or increasing stock values aren't experimental goals. My fear is that all vaccines against Covid-19 still remain to be philosophical than true science. For now, we are the participants and witnesses of a clinical trial that should have been tested and retested in empirical settings. Is a Covid-19 vaccine a reality or a dream? Answers lie in the future.
Posted in Health	| Tagged COVID-19 vaccine, Covid-19 vaccine experiment vs quasi-experiment, Moderna Covid-19, Pfizer Covid-19, quasi-experiment, quasi-science	| Leave a reply
Benefits and consequences of COVID-19 vaccine
The COVID-19 vaccine is coming. But is it ready to be used?
There's a great deal of optimism as Pfizer begins deliveries of their vaccine to USA. There are, however, some that believe there's a bumpy road ahead about results and side-effects. They prefer to wait. How efficient is this vaccine? Does it cover only D614b (original form)? Does it cover all COVID-19 mutations?
The first people to be vaccinated are the guinea pigs of what may be a vast, ghastly experiment.
COVID-19 vaccine production spans only less than 1 year for testing, far less than average for many drugs. They may stop the world's tragic COVID-19 pandemic but those benefits come with a barrel of consequential side-effects that may be worse to several people:
Cough.
Joint pain.
Fast or pounding heartbeat
Loss of smell or taste
Memory, concentration or sleep problems
Rash or hair loss
According to CNBC, the FDA said that while side effects of the Pfizer vaccine are common, there are "no specific safety concerns identified that would preclude issuance of an EUA." CNBC continues, the information shows it has benefits even after the first dose, with an effectiveness of more than 50 percent about a week later. Shots are given 3-weeks apart.
Does your health insurance cover that significant 2nd shot? It may or may not. You really need to contact carriers for written approval.
Among other issues, UK has observed allergic reactions that may have been caused by a component of Pfizer's vaccine called polyethylene glycol, or PEG, which helps stabilize the shot and is not in other types of vaccines.
There are also more types of COVID-19 than 12 months ago. Researchers call the new strain G614 and the previous strain D614. One of the researchers who worked on the study told CNN that the new mutation is "now the dominant form infecting people."
According to Medical News Today, ll viruses mutate, and the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is no exception. As an RNA virus, it is prone to mutations, partly because the replication enzymes of RNA viruses make more mistakes when copying genetic material from cells that it settles on. The G614 variant first piqued a study team's (at Los Alamos Labs interest in April, when they noticed a repeated pattern across the globe.
An assumption that the D614 strain has a mean generation time of ~5 days, researchers calculated that the G614 strain has a reproduction number 31% times higher than the D614 strain. The estimate above is based on the number of confirmed cases, but if deaths are used instead, the result would be a 23% higher reproduction number.
The new strain of coronavirus, called D614G (G614), emerged in Europe and has become the most common in the world. Research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the University of Wisconsin-Madison shows the D614G strain replicates faster and is more transmissible than the virus, originating in China, that spread in the beginning of the pandemic.D614G is responsible for increasing spikes throughout the globe.
According to Bio-Pharma, a group of Australian scientists believe that effectiveness of D614 vaccines should also be effective with G614 mutations. The report was in October 2020, so it's more theoretical.
The pandemic is serious by deaths, social isolation, and economic upheaval. Welcoming the Pfizer vaccine is the first glimmer of hope in this trying year. We've no idea of the incidence of side-effects and the duration of drug efficacy. Who knows? An H614 may be developing but we don't know about it yet. I think better research is required.
Posted in Health	| Tagged Benefits and consequences of COVID-19 vaccine, COVID-19 vaccine, COVID-19 vaccine good bad ugly, moderna covid-19 vaccine, New Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine and side effects, pfizer covid-19 vaccine, vaccine side effects	| Leave a reply
Low carbohydrates and cereal for a keto lifestyle
Posted on December 2, 2020 by Emile Gervin
Carbohydrates are a nasty word but are often necessities. For those who are active all day, carbohydrates help provide the get-up-go you'll need to survive the morning hours. Sadly, most eat carbohydrates and aren't active. Unused carbohydrates go to your belly. This routine may promote diabetes 2 as your body seeks self-regulation. Oddly, while promoting health and taste, cereal contains more simple carbohydrates each morning. Keto diet disciples believe cereal carbohydrates are crap as part of their lifestyle. Yet many people are addicted to cereal.
Perhaps the most challenging meals each morning is cereal. From granola, to Muesli, to raisin bran, or oatmeal, there are considerable carbohydrates. As some may have only 20-30 grams of carbohydrates per serving, many "healthy" cereals have over 40 grams of carbohydrates per serving. Virtually none have no sugar because they hide it with sucralose or sugar alcohols. Including oatmeal, most don't have enough fiber to yield a low-carb net rating.
A net carbohydrates rating takes number of total carbohydrates and subtracts fiber. Fiber is often insignificant in cereals.
Catalina Crunch Cereal touts itself as having 0 sugars, plenty of protein, and is a good source of fiber. But what about taste? The ceral uses a natural sweetener derived from luo han guo, a small melon native to parts of Southern China and Thailand — for a more subtle sugar-free taste. Lug han guo is the extract of a monkfruit. Monkfruit has been used for centuries in Eastern medicine as a cold and digestive aid, and now it is also being used to sweeten foods and beverages. Because Catalina Crunch cereal has limited distribution, this recent start-up cereal hasn't been analyzed by FDA about it's sweetening agent. Like the stevia plant, Lug han guo is derived as plant-based.
How does Luo han guo sweeten? It contains natural non-sugar sweet tasting compounds made up of triterpenoid glycosides, which have sweetness levels ranging from hundreds of times to about one-half that of sugar. According to USA National Institutes of Health, they have strong antioxidant activity and inhibit the formation of advanced glycation end products, implicated in the pathogenesis of diabetic nephropathy, embryopathy, neuropathy or impaired wound healing.
There is very little published evidence but some believe that Luo han guo may cause some liver damage and by what quantity may do so. As with many plants, Luo han guo have statins, commonly purported as an ingredient to manage high cholesterol. This plant features statins that compare with simvastatin, or Zocor.
According to Healthline, Monkfruit extract is 150 to 200 times sweeter than sugar. The extract contains zero calories, zero carbohydrates, zero sodium, and zero fat. Studies in mice with diabetes suggest that monk fruit extract may even reduce blood sugar levels.
Preliminary observations as a dietary supplement, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) considers monk fruit sweeteners to be generally regarded as safe. Yes, Amazon sells it.
As plants are sources of carbohydrates, a quantity of monkfruit may deliver low carbohydrates, although products claim zero.
Monk fruit is commonly used as a substitution for sugar in confections, soups, sauces and beverages. But because it is much sweeter than sugar, a 1-to-1 substitution may be too sweet. Experiment in the kitchen and find the ratio that fits your needs. Consider starting with 1/3 cup monk fruit sugar for 1 cup sugar. Let's hope Catalina Crunch and competitors tweak their extracts.
For those seeking to find a cereal that has no carbohydrates (yet) then Catalina Crunch helps make cereal suited for your dietary lifestyle. As with all sugar substitutes, monkfruit is an acquired taste.
Unless you're running, biking, walking, or working on a farm, those astronomical carbohydrates may be adding to your aging process. Maybe stevia and monkfruit may help reduce those carbohydrates found in cereals, while preserving the taste. Artificial sweeteners taste bad but monkfruit sweeteners are a good option for people watching their weight. Unlike some artificial sweeteners, there's no evidence to date showing that monkfruit has negative side effects. Although wo can tell what the far future brings?
Posted in Lifestyle	| Tagged Catalina Crunch, cereal carbohydrates, is cereal healthy, Is cereal low carb?, Low carbohydrates and cereal for a keto lifestyle, monk fruit, monkfruit	| Leave a reply