Escaping The Rabbit Hole
Former believers, and lessons learned
George B
Extinct but not forgotten Staff Member
Mick said:
That's getting a little epistemological. The key thing there is understanding that observer biases exist, and working to safeguard against them. Typically by having multiple observations and preferably repeatable verifications.
Without that, people get fixated on what they think is right, and instead of working to falsify it (as any good scientist should), they instead only attempt to justify it. Which leads to follies like this:
http://www.o-enigma-de-marte.info/A...cidade_perdida_em_marte_ENGLISH_01_intro.html
Where the author expounds on for pages without realizing that that photo he is analyzing is a "texture mapped" 3d projection which has transformed mundane image artifacts into visually more interesting artifacts.
You also get rather weak appeals to authority like:
For whatever it's worth, software algorithms are what I've been doing for a living since about 1972, including graphics applications and steganalysis which involves jpeg code. It is my professional opinion that no software application could produce an image like this one:
unless it was specifically programmed to do so. It is inconceivable to me that any application or algorithm could produce that image as an artifact of doing something else unrelated.
Argument from personal incredulity.
Yes . . . "The key thing there is understanding that observer biases exist, and working to safeguard against them. Typically by having multiple observations and preferably repeatable verifications. " But, the point is . . . what then do we do to explain multiple observers observing the same unexpected, novel, rare, non mundane event . . . ???? It having no known scientific explanation . . . ignore it . . . refuse to acknowledge it . . . call the observers wrong and ridicule their intelligence or intimidate them into keeping quiet and have them leave the arena of discussion to avoid criticism and professional suicide like my physician friend above . . .
Winning the lotter is pretty exciting too, even vicariously.
But a lot of what happens in medicine is idiopathic. Around 50% of doctor visits have no definitive outcome. 30% of dermatological conditions have no known cause. Many drugs do not have a proven mechanism of action. Cancer sometimes goes into spontaneous remission.
We know that these things happen. In that sense it's mundane. It's also exciting because there's so much still unknown in science.
For an individual, spontaneous remission of cancer is a wondrous occurrence, but it does not indicate anything more than the last time it happened. And while it's more important, it's no more mysterious than the unknown cause of a rash.
Hmmmm . . . I was not referring to remission of cancer . . . though there are amazing examples of this . . . I have seen other events which are far more unexplainable than that . . .
George B said:
Like what for example?
You know that people suffer from similar biases, so can make similar mistakes. There's also peer conformity. That would account for some cases. Then there's mass hysteria.
But what "unexpected, novel, rare, non mundane event" in particular did you have in mind? Your point is a bit broad without an example.
What were they?
And "far more unexplainable" seems a bit odd. Seems to imply that there is some higher power at work. How is it far more unexplainable than an unexplained rash?
http://www.allergy-clinic.co.uk/skin-allergy/urticaria/
The cause of Chronic ordinary Urticaria is much more difficult to identify. The role of true food allergy is hardly ever a significant trigger but food additives such as salicylate, sodium benzoate, sulphites, artificial colourings and nitrites may play a role. We often end up diagnosing Chronic Idiopathic Urticaria. This condition (which can persist for many years) is due to the production of "auto-antibodies" which in turn attack specific Mast Cells in our skin and tissues causing an enormous release of histamine. Why we suddenly switch-on production of these aggressive antibodies to our own skin cells is a complete enigma.
"A complete enigma". How do you get "more unexplainable" than that?
Edit: maybe "A Mystery Wrapped in an Enigma: Matrigel Enhancement of Mammary Cell Growth and Morphogenesis."
A rather extreme example of the the side of mysterious:
http://www.npr.org/2011/04/22/135121360/a-boy-an-injury-a-recovery-a-miracle?ft=1&f=3
At the trauma unit at Seattle Children's Hospital, Craig Rubens, a pediatric infectious disease specialist, instantly suspected a flesh-eating bacterium called strep A. It was consuming Jake's face with terrifying speed.
"It's like lighting one end of a parchment paper," he says, "and you just watch it spread from that corner very fast, and you're stamping it on one side, and it's flaming up on another."
"Things were looking so grim for Jake that we needed all the prayers we could get," recalls their priest, the Rev. Tim Sauer. And because Jake is half Lummi Indian, Sauer urged parishioners at St. Joseph's Catholic Church to appeal to a woman who lived 350 years ago.
"I encouraged people to ask for the intercession of Blessed Kateri," he says.
Kateri Tekakwitha was a Mohawk who converted to Catholicism. Her face was scarred by smallpox. Legend has it, when she died, her scars vanished. She was beatified in 1980, the step before sainthood. Sauer says Kateri was the perfect intercessor for Jake.
"No. 1, we're talking about two young people," Sauer says. "No. 2, we're talking about two people who come from Native American ancestry. And No. 3, we're talking about a person who herself suffered from a disease that disfigured her face."
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2...med-a-miracle-by-his-family-and-the-pope?lite
To avoid going into elaborate details . . . I am using examples where measurable, scientifically valid data was available to establish the condition of individuals where far beyond the survival threshold . . . based on all monitoring devices and tests . . . situations in which life could not be sustained even with elaborate support equipment . . .
Situations in which someone intervened with ritual and faith and not the faith of the terminal individual . . . the survival and robustness of the recovery were not IMO humanly possible . . . spontaneous recovery at the precise time intervention occurred . . . a coincidence possibly but not very likely . . . I don't know what to call it . . . maybe some people have the ability to heal others . . . maybe some combination of communal concern and energy which transcends what we can measure and understand . . . call it what you will . . .
"Far beyond the survival threshold" for what?
People go beyond the "survival threshold" all the time. Kids fall into frozen ponds, don't breath for 30 minutes, and then come back to life. It happens ALL THE TIME. Just like the lottery.
Amputee's legs don't spontaneously grow back though. That's one threshold that's distinctly one-way.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/international/miracle-boys-defy-death-under-the-ice-1-1299632
TWO boys who were clinically dead for more than an hour after falling through ice into a frozen lake in Austria have been brought back to life.
The brothers, Andreas, seven, and Christopher, nine, were under the icy water of the Schillerwasse near Vienna for at least half an hour until they were found by fire brigade divers.
Both of them had stopped breathing and their hearts had stopped.
Despite little hope that either could be saved, rescuers tried to revive them and after working for 30 minutes heard a faint heartbeat coming from Andreas. Half an hour later Christopher also started to show signs of life.
After nearly a month in a coma, Andreas has recovered fully and Christopher is well on the way to regaining his health. Andreas has been told he can go home in the next eight to 10 days after doctors observed him walking, speaking, eating and doing schoolwork with no signs at all of his ordeal.
Dr Arnold Pollak, head of the paediatric clinic at the Vienna General Hospital, said: "Andreas' recovery happened so quickly it borders on a miracle.
"The fact that the boys were so cold as they lay at the bottom of the lake was what made all the difference,"
"The freezing water cooled their body temperature down so much that they went into a state of almost suspended animation. The cold considerably reduces the need for oxygen, therefore slowing their metabolism.
"A healthy person with a normal body temperature can only survive for up to five minutes without oxygen, but Andreas and Christopher were in cardiac arrest for more than an hour and an hour-and-a-half respectively."
Miracle, or science.
This guy was dead, underwater, for a full hour, remained dead for an hour after, then recovered. Seen anything more mysterious than that?
http://globegazette.com/news/local/article_baaab8f7-0d87-56c5-82a6-7c445b066e37.html
"He looked like a cadaver," Waters said.He would have put Krenz's chances of coming out of it as well as he did at 100 to 1, Waters said."It borders on the miraculous. He certainly appeared dead and he met all the clinical criteria for death — except that he could be revived," Waters said.The portable heart-lung machine used in the emergency room was critical to the operation's success. It warmed Krenz's body in a slow and controlled fashion from the core to the surface, Waters said. The machine also supported Krenz's circulation.Waters, who has practiced heart surgery for nearly 20 years, said the Krenz case was "the most extraordinary case I've ever seen."​
The difference is there are known scientific explanations for the cold water examples . . . slowing of metabolic rates alone would contribute to survival . . . sorry this does not fit the example I am describing . . .
There are theories as to what might contribute to survival. It's not understood. When you cool people down like they they usually die. If you deprive them of oxygen, they die. But do both, and they survive. Crazy!
I bet if you said what your example actually was, then I could come up with a plausible theory.
I will give it to you in detail . . . But it will have to be later . . . I must run . . .
1) In the late 1970s a man in his late 50's dying from late Stage 3 Multiple myeloma, had undergone surgery to remove a necrotic lung and was diagnosed with infection (melioidosis) of the remaining lung . Patient was comatose pre and post operative . . patient was in multi-system shutdown . . .. no response to pain, flat EEG, most chemistries, blood gases, and hematology results trending toward values incompatible with life . . . in thirty years of medicine I have not seen anyone recover from this man's situation . . .
2) The patient's wife and Elders from her church came to the patient's room the evening before his recovery the coming morning . . . the nursing staff told us the wife was a member of a Church of God Congregation . .. (patient was not a member nor did he attend the church). The group of Elders and wife came in and performed some form of ritual that included prayer, laying on of hands and anointing the patient's head with Oil in the sign of the cross . . .
3) During the night patient became aware and started to talk and respond to questions by the next morning patient was walking down the hall with assistance and talking to nursing staff and other patients . . . upon examination by surgeon the next day patient was in excellent spirits, all laboratory results were normalizing, patient was discharged a few days later and was found not to have symptoms of active Multiple myeloma . .
4) Surgeon annotated in his discharge summary patient's survival was due in his opinion to a medical miracle . . .
5) How do I know this . . . I was in charge of significant sections of the Clinical Pathology and part of my duties included the review and certification of abnormal results, my office mate and secretary was the Tumor Board Recorder, Manager and Secretary, I personally knew the Surgeon and talked with him and the nursing staff and other interested parties regarding the case . . . the patient's outpatient and inpatient records were kept in lockup in my office for some time before the case was presented to the Tumor Board for review and was available for review by appropriate personnel.
6) Upon research I found the following . . . First Mention of Oil Used for Ministry in the New Testament
http://www.precepts.com/StudyMaterials/Outlines/WhyJesusDied/Anointing_with_Oil.html
When Jesus sent forth his disciples, two by two, He had instructed them about how to minister to others. By implication, we know that Jesus instructed the disciples about anointing the sick with oil.
Andthey (the disciples) cast out many devils, and anointed with oil many that were sick, and healed them.
Is any sick among you? let him call for the elders of the church; and let them pray over him, anointing him with oil in the name of the Lord.
They shall take up serpents; and if they drink any deadly thing, it shall not hurt them; they shall lay hands on the sick, and they shall recover.
7) Prognosis of Multiplemyeloma as of 2012 not 1979 . . .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_myeloma
With high-dose therapy followedby autologous stem celltransplantation, the median survival has been estimated in 2003 to be approximately 4.5 years, compared to a median of approximately 3.5 years with"standard" therapy.[21]​
The InternationalStaging System can help to predict survival, with a median survival (in2005) of 62 months for stage 1 disease, 45 months for stage 2 disease, and 29 months for stage 3 disease.[7]​
8) Melioidosis
Melioidosis is an infectious disease caused by a Gram-negativebacterium,Burkholderia pseudomallei
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melioidosis
Historical treatment
Prior to 1989,the standard treatment for acute melioidosis was a three-drug combination of chloramphenicol,co-trimoxazoleand doxycycline;this regimen is associated with a mortality rate of 80% and should no longer beused unless no other alternatives are available.[67]​All four drugs are bacteriostatic (they stop the bacterium from growing but donot kill it) and the action of co-trimoxazole antagonizes both chloramphenicoland doxycycline.[92]​
Without access to appropriate antibiotics (principally ceftazidimeor meropenem),the septicemic form of melioidosis has a mortality rate that exceeds 90%.[93][94]​With appropriate antibiotics, the mortality rate is about 10% for uncomplicated cases but up to 80% for cases with bacteraemia or severe sepsis. It seems certain that access to intensive care facilities is also important, and probably at least partially explains why total mortality is 20% in Northern Australia but 40% in Northeast Thailand. Response to appropriate antibiotic treatment is slow with the average duration of fever following treatment being 5–9 days.
9) Tumor Board. . . here is an example of one dedicated to Breast Cancer . . .
http://www.exempla.org/body.cfm?id=887
Tumor Board and Breast Conference are multidisciplinary forums used to discuss a patient's diagnosis and the most appropriate treatment options available. At these conferences, physicians and allied health professionals involved in the care of cancer patients present and discuss individual patient cases. Discussion involves the review of radiology,pathology, patient history and current methods of treatment. NCNN (National Comprehensive Cancer Network) treatment guidelines, clinical trials, and case management are available for review and discussion. ELMC collaborates with another community hospital in order to provide Tumor Board on a weekly basis.
Spontaneous remission of Multiple myeloma is not unknown. It's likely that is what happened. It also happens quite quickly. People who are very ill not dying is also not unknown. I think what happened to this man was simply a statistical outlier. He was very lucky.
Consider this also. A friend of mine, lovely woman, 40 years old, married, three young children. She gets bile duct cancer and dies in a year. She had a massive support network of family and friends across the world. Hundreds, if not thousands of people were praying for her. The cancer did not slow up one bit.
So why does prayer seem to act entirely randomly?
Why have studies of prayer consistently shown no effect?
The doctor considered it a miracle because recovery was very very unlikely, seemingly impossible. The outcome indicates partly that he was wrong, but mostly that the patient was very lucky. When a person only has a one in a million chance of surviving through the night, one in a million of them will make it, regardless of prayer.
I might agree except this patient's miracle was not remission from the Multiple myeloma, it was from septic shock, DIC, respiratory and renal failure . . . to name just a few . . . the patient was dead man walking . . . as far as why some people get miracles and others don't . . . why does lightning strike one friend but not another in a field when they are ten feet apart . . . you feeeel it is totally random . . . others feel the proximate cause is intervention of something we cannot see or measure . . .
It's also an anecdote from 35 years ago. Now impossible to quantify, it might perhaps have also grown a little in the remembrance.
The patient was given a very low chance of surviving. He survived. The chance of surviving was not zero. All the things you listed are recoverable conditions. Multiple organ system failure has a poor prognosis, but it's not an automatic 100% mortaility.
You say this might have been due to the prayers, and the anointing with oil. Yet thousands of people have prayers and oil, and die the next day. Does this vast failure rate not have a better indication of its efficiency than the one in a million time it seemed to work?
And why does it never work for amputees?
PCWilliams
Yeah, synchronicity, collective unconsciousness, archetypes. Science does not understand how the mind works and how consciousness works. So we can't always explain how people find some coincidences meaningful, or where deja vu comes from. But I don't then take the leap into assuming that there's likely something supernatural going on.
I thought Deja Vu was simply the brain accidentally tripping the familiarity button. Sort of like when the brain triggers the anxiety button, causing people to suffer anxiety attacks for no apparent reason.
I cannot verify every detail, however, I have an excellent memory (at least 90% accurate) and I will guarantee the surgeon's opinion and discharge note . . .
Interesting thought regarding the amputee . . . In the case above the person did not replace the surgically removed lung either . . . Suppose there are limits to what is possible, even with potential miracles . . . You cannot deny there are rare statistically remote happenings which coincidentally occur when people choose to intervene as in this oil ritual . . . Thereby associating their act with the outcome . . . and since one cannot prove there was no link they choose to believe there was a cause and effect . . .
I thought there were no limits to what miracles can achieve, what with god being omnipotent????
MikeC said:
I don't think anyone said God was the only source of rare unexpected events . . . Seems there are all types of events without precise explanations . . . Some very mysterious . . .
You quoted gospel and mentioned a miracle in the specific case above - indeed highlighted the word - that's god-related stuff.
sure there are things that happen for which we don't have an explanation - my impression was that you are happy to lay the credit at the X-ian god's feet for this one. Are you saying that is not what you believe is the case here?
Personally I just go with "we don't know why" - but I understand that some people are unable to be comfortable with that so need to believe in something actually having control.
Well let's keep it at the simplest level, the suggestion is that the oil, prayers, and/or laying on of hands had some effect , regardless of if supernatural forces were at work.
The evidence for this is this one instance where there seems to be a correlation.
The evidence against it is the millions of instances where it does not.
So really, what's more likely - there's this incredibly unreliable and scientifically unrealistic method of magically healing people that almost never works - or this guy got lucky?
If God existed and was all powerful and all knowing. . . Why would he/she/it heal everyone who asked for healing? Seems likely an infinite sentient being would have some rational reason to be selective. . . . for his/her/its own purposes. . . .
I was reporting the event as it happened. . . It is obvious the wife involved was religious and cared for her husband . . . And I think many loved ones would react in a similar way in the culture of the area in the 1970s. . . .as they say there are no atheists in fox holes. . . .
Yes, the man was lucky . . . What if healing is like a skill. . . I will use a golf analogy. . . I golf and so does Tiger Woods . . The difference is enormous . . . I occasionally, with my skill, hit a golf pro shot maybe once a round of golf. . . .Tiger on the other hand hits pro level shots most of the time. . . We have the same random chance of success if we remove his skill and replace it with mine and we compete. . . Maybe everyone has the ability to heal but few if any experience the moment because they are unaware of the rare times where they hit the perfect golf shot. . . . Bringing people together with common goals and purpose may increase the probability of success. . . Eventually a hole in one does happen. . . .
So, things happen that are indistinguishable from random chance, so maybe something is happening?
That's like saying maybe there's a way people can influence the outcome of the lottery.
.as they say there are no atheists in fox holes. . . .
[ex=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_no_atheists_in_foxholes]Joe Simpson, author of the book Touching The Void, explicitly addresses the issue in the film adaptation of his nearly fatal climb of the Siula Grande mountain. Referring to the moment he lay at the bottom of a deep crevasse, dehydrated, alone and with a broken leg, he states: '"I was totally convinced I was on my own, that no one was coming to get me. I was brought up as a devout Catholic. I'd long since stopped believing in God. I always wondered if things really hit the fan, whether I would, under pressure, turn round and say a few Hail Marys and say 'Get me out of here'. It never once occurred to me. It meant that I really don't believe and I really do think that when you die, you die, that's it, there's no afterlife."[/ex]
You must have looked a long time to find one example of someone, who in the face of death, does not wonder if there is a god and/or calls out to him or out to some invisible force assistance . . .
No but they can increase their chances of winning by buying more chances or pooling with others to share the winnings . . . not unlike increasing the chance someone may have healing skills by involving as many people as possible in prayer and assistance . . .
Entirely unlike it. As buying more tickets is mathematically proven to increase your odds. There's zero evidence that increasing the number of people praying for you does anything at all. In fact some studies show that people being prayed for do worse than people who are not, if they know they are being prayed for. Otherwise it made no difference.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Studies_on_intercessory_prayer
Major complications and thirty-day mortality occurred in 52 percent of those who received prayer (Group 1), 51 percent of those who did not receive it (Group 2), and 59 percent of patients who knew they would receive prayers (Group 3).
What are you basing that on? Here's a few more examples:
http://atheism.about.com/u/ua/atheismmyths/AtheistsInFoxholes.htm
I think for theists, the thought of asking their god for help comes so naturally that they can't imagine what it is like to be an atheist. Whenever I've been in a dangerous situation (Car accident, Earthquake, major infection), I've never asked god for help. Why would I? I just get scared, and try to figure out what to do.
lee h oswald
Hey George. Hope all's good with you. Fascinating exchange.
Tiger tells me your swing is coming along, it's the putting that lets you down! x
Here is an interesting site . . .
Scientific studies over the last four decades have examined the role of both public and private religious expression on health and longevity. The studies have shown that the practice of religious activity improves health and increases longevity. The effect is seen even when other social/psychological differences are taken into account. For example, one 16-year study examined mortality rates in 11 religious vs. 11 secular kibbutzim in Israel. Although both communities were demographically-matched and provided similar levels of social support, three time more people died in the secular kibbutzim compared to the religious kibbutazim. The following is a short list of some recent studies that have shown the positive influence of religion on health and longevity.
http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/religionhealth.html
lee h oswald said:
Say Hi to Tiger for me . . .
Mick, what do you say to the idea of 'mind over matter'?
For me that's when your body wants to do something, but you force it to do something else instead.
Like, I'm going to run a 10K (6.2 mile) race on Sunday. I know that after 1 mile, my body will be telling me to stop. But I'll press though, keep on going, and finish all 6 miles. That's mind over matter.
I also think there's a strong psychosomatic component in many illnesses, and hence the attitude of the person has a big influence on outcome.
I think the issue of how much we can actually change out own bodies by mind is still a very open question. Does positive thinking help cancer patients? It seems like it does, but it's not entirely clear.
I see zero evidence that the mind can influence anything outside the body, except in a very limited way in that brain activity can be detected some short distance from the brain. I don't think you can intentionally enhance chocolate. I think that Masaru Emoto is a con artist. I do not think there is telepathy, ESP, or precognition.
Interesting. There are plenty con artists about. The question then becomes: do we allow ourselves to be conned?
The first two paras: it's certainly an example of what 'mind over matter' could be, and it holds true for you. To that extent it's real; as in, there is a definite result of a perceived input. Your mind says (for whatever reason, pride; a bet; personal achievement - that doesn't matter): keep going, so you keep going.
I also think there's a strong psychosomatic component in many illnesses, and hence the attitude of the person has a big influence on outcome. I think this is fascinating. I had a conversation with someone today along similar lines.
I see zero evidence that the mind can influence anything outside the body, except in a very limited way in that brain activity can be detected some short distance from the brain.
I can give you proof of the opposite.
I would very much appreciate seeing it. (assuming you don't just mean the brain makes the body do something, like talk, or throw a ball, which influences a dog, or suchlike)
One example I find particularly interesting is whiplash from car accidents. The prevalence of this injury seems directly proportional to the amount of money you can sue for having it.
The problem with whiplash is that it often cannot be detected by MRI etc, and relies entirely on the patient's description of the pain. it seems that even if the patient is not deliberately malingering, there's a tendency to imagine symptoms if there's a potential big payoff for having them.
http://www.nytimes.com/1996/05/07/s...nsated-and-unknown.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm
IN Lithuania, rear-end collisions happen much as they do in the rest of the world. Cars crash, bumpers crumple and tempers flare. But drivers in cars that have been hit there do not seem to suffer the long-term complaints so common in other countries: the headaches or lingering neck pains that have come to be known as chronic whiplash, or whiplash syndrome.
Cars are no safer in Lithuania, and the average neck is not any stronger. The difference, a new study says, might be described as a matter of indemnity.
Mind over matter. The body tells the brain that it's okay, but the brain ignores it.
Let's be clear: You said, not ten minutes ago:
Mind over matter: have you ever had the fortune to have a 'wet dream'? A man can, in his sleep and without any physical action or stimulation, produce the essence of life itself through the subconscious alone. That is the mind not only influencing something outside the body, but also creating the potential for life in the first place. No hands required!
You might want to argue that the end of the penis is not that far from the brain, but I think that would be churlish.
I think that's more autonomic than subconscious. But either way it's not really what I was talking about. While asleep the body inhales, exhales, mutters words, tosses and turns, occasionally gets up and walks around, sometimes kills people. All of which have an influence outside of the body, and all of which are irrelevant to "mind over matter"
My Escape From the Rabbit Hole - Pinkbunion
Pinkbunion
My brief journey down the 2012 doomsday rabbit hole
I am horrified by my past
Devilboii
Trovants - growing, moving, multiplying, and generating bunk?
psikiwi