Lead: University of East Anglia (UEA)
Data & Assumptions
Overview of data and assumptions.
A timeline and a flow visualization have been created to show progress
Your feedback and comments are much appreciated, questions will be addressed rapidly.
Climate data is provided for both observed (historical) and future (projected) climates for use in the EU Calculator, to meet the requirements of team members.
Data provided are cloud cover, precipitation, surface air temperature (mean, min, max), vapour pressure, wet day frequency. Two alternative sets of time series were provided, one consistent with a low mitigation future and the other consistent with a stringent mitigation future.
For each climate variable, projections are provided as time series for 2015-2100. Both seasonal and annual data are provided, as country ensemble means for the 28EU member states + Switzerland.
Historical observational climate data is also provided for the same variables from 1960-2013.
The question arises as to how to link the emission reductions simulated in the EU Calculator to global temperature change, given that at present the EU's territorial emissions comprise a relatively low proportion (less than 10%) of the global greenhouse gas emissions (49 GtCO2e globally in 2010, with 4.4 GtCo2e emitted by the EU in 2016). Despite this relatively small contribution, it was decided that in the calculator a stronger relationship would be assumed between mitigation action in the EU and global warming than would directly result from the emission reductions themselves: also an indirect effect would be included to reflect the strong leadership role that the EU plays on the global stage in setting a standard and trend for other nations to follow. Furthermore, the EU's consumption emissions are substantial (4366 MtCO2 in 2015, exceeding the territorial emissions of CO2, and comprising around 12% of global CO2 emissions) and hence the EU has the potential to also directly influence the emissions outside the EU by changing its consumption patterns and behaviour. Hence, one approach is to assume that the rest of the world would make similar emission reductions to the EU, and hence that strong mitigation action in the EU would result in significantly lower climate changes and resultant impacts. The disadvantage of not taking this approach is that the user would not then see a benefit in terms of avoided climate changes from emission reductions within the EU. The approach taken is in line with the commitments made in the Paris Agreement.
Contact for questions about the data and module: Jeff Price jeff.price@uea.ac.uk