Cook editor David Wasserman called Knight "the most vulnerable incumbent in California," although the non-partisan prognosticator also put Darrell Issa, R-Vista, and Jeff Denham, R-Turlock, in the same "toss-up" column. University of Virginia Center for Politics' Larry Sabato also calls the Knight-Caforio race a toss-up, while the analysis of the Stuart Rothenberg and Nathan Gonzales Political Report still says the district "leans Republican."
The uncertainty in the tight race is reflected in newspaper editorials favoring Knight that cite Caforio's recent move to the district and Knight's long history as a Los Angeles police officer, Palmdale City Council member, state assemblyman and state senator from the area.
"All the (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) wants is to win a Democratic majority in the House, and it intends to hijack California's 25th Congressional District to accomplish that goal," declared The Santa Clarita Signal's editorial endorsement of Knight. The Los Angeles Daily News and radio station KHTS in Santa Clarita also endorsed Knight, as did The Ventura County Star, while acknowledging Caforio's positions on broad national issues were more in line with its views.
Demonstrating the national profile of the race, President Barack Obama recently endorsed Caforio, while House Speaker Paul Ryan last week stumped for Knight in the district.
The race has been characterized by sometimes petty, often tangential mud-slinging. Earlier this week, Caforio's campaign filed a complaint with the California Fair Political Practices Commission saying a flier circulated by Knight's campaign illegally used the seal of the city of Santa Clarita, suggesting its use was deceptive and implied an official government endorsement. The week before, it focused on former Knight staffer Dante Acosta, who is running for the state Assembly, accusing him of sexual harassment.
Widely circulated private emails from a Republican consultant, copied to Knight, accuse Acosta of harassment. Acosta has denied it. Knight released a statement last week saying he met with the accuser, determined that she didn't want to involve law enforcement or pursue legal action and that he would continue to monitor the situation. The alleged victim called it "shameful" that Caforio would politicize her "personal pain" for "political gain."
Sexual harassment allegations raised against candidate
On Knight's behalf, the Washington-based Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust filed a 15-page complaint with the Federal Election Commission on Oct. 24 alleging the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is illegally coordinating television advertising with the Caforio campaign. It said the committee and Caforio for Congress had jointly paid $751,469 since Sept. 1 for television ads critical of Donald Trump and praising Caforio.
"This is a baseless complaint from a right-wing group with extensive ties to shady, secret, dark-money organizations," Caforio campaign manager Orrin Evans said this week. "We have been communicating with voters about Rep. Steve Knight standing silently by Donald Trump for too long, and this is the latest attempt by Rep. Knight to avoid having to answer for Trump, and his continued support of another alleged sexual aggressor, Dante Acosta."
The nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks the influence of money on public policy, shows the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $1.7 million against Knight and $246,826 for Caforio, including $36,277 in coordinated spending.
Actress and activist Shawnee Badger, who attended the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia this year as a Bernie Sanders supporter, reflects even Democrats' ambivalence toward Caforio, a UCLA and Yale University Law School-trained lawyer. She said she fears he "may very well turn out to be a corporate suit."
Badger said she will nonetheless vote for the "carpetbagger" because of his stands on women's rights and other progressive issues, even as she praised Knight for his accessibility.
"This is his home, his community, and has been a long time," she said.
Local Democrats and the state party supported longtime party activist Lou Vince, who came in third in the June primary. Vince has said that even though he disagrees with Knight on issues such as climate change and health care, he'll vote for him over his party's nominee.
The race occasionally has turned to matters of substance. Knight led an effort in Congress to postpone implementation of a Department of Labor rule that would extend overtime pay to some currently exempt administrative employees paid less than $47,476 a year. Caforio supported the rule, noting that it would have a disproportionately favorable impact on working women.
Both campaigns have raised similar amounts from donors, Federal Election Commission records show. Caforio raised $1.31 million through Oct. 19, spent $1.27 million and had $80,237 on hand. Knight raised $1.43 million this cycle, spent $1.35 million and had $110,531 on hand.
Besides the campaigns' and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spending, outside groups have pumped huge amounts into the race. The conservative American Action Network has spent $326,250 against Caforio, while the National Republican Congressional Committee spent $970,955 against him. Meanwhile, the liberal House Majority Political Action Committee spent $74,280 and the Progressive Turnout Project spent $148,725 supporting the challenger.