NFL Playoff Odds Week 14: Betting Lines and Recommendations for 14 Teams Including the 49ers, Giants, and Dolphins
Based on current odds for making the playoffs, which teams offer the best and most likely payouts? Here's the NFL playoff odds Week 14 rundown.
By BJ Rudell
NFL Playoff Odds Heading Into Week 14
AFC Analysis
NFC Analysis
If you're looking for betting recommendations on NFL playoff odds heading into Week 14, you've come to the right place. We've analyzed each team's highest-probability game-by-game outcomes to assess the likelihood that they'll earn a postseason berth.
Use this NFL betting information as you see fit — whether to bet on team futures or to have something to talk about at your next International Bettors Convention breakout sessions.
The following playoff odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook, updated to reflect the latest lines heading into Week 14. Below that is an analysis of which way we'd recommend betting for each team — either "Yes" for making the playoffs or "No" to missing them.
There's no hedging here. Uncertainty is no excuse. If we don't know enough to make a bet with relative confidence, then we need to dig deeper.
San Francisco 49ers (-1400 Yes, +850 No)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-750 Yes, +550 No)
Los Angeles Chargers (+140 Yes, -175 No)
Miami Dolphins (-650 Yes, +450 No)
New York Giants (-120 Yes, +100 No)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+900 Yes, -1600 No)
New York Jets (+100 Yes, -120 No)
Detroit Lions (+700 Yes, -1200 No)
Green Bay Packers (+1100 Yes, -2500 No)
New England Patriots (+275 Yes, -360 No)
Las Vegas Raiders (+700 Yes, -1200 No)
Seattle Seahawks (-400 Yes, +300 No)
Tennessee Titans (-1400 Yes, +750 No)
Washington Commanders (-165 Yes, +135 No)
As we know, seven AFC teams will make the playoffs: four division winners and three Wild Cards. Only the Texans have been mathematically eliminated. That leaves 15 teams for seven spots.
The next worst team is the 3-9 Broncos. This means it's still mathematically possible for Denver to win their final five games and sneak into the postseason at 8-9. However, a lot of things have to go right, and I don't want to waste your time with 500 words on why the Broncos probably won't get it done.
But "8-9" is a helpful marker at this stage. Nine teams are 6-6 or better. Three more are 5-7. And two teams with four wins (Colts and Jaguars) have to somehow overtake the 7-5 Titans. I'd definitely go "No" on the Jaguars (-1600) reaching the postseason.
That takes us to Tennessee. I'd absolutely bet -1400 on them making the playoffs. Of their five remaining contests, two are at home against the Jags and Texans. Their road games vary from challenging to very challenging: Chargers, Cowboys, and the Jaguars again.
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The Titans are a near lock to finish no worse than 9-8, assuming they can take one of two against Jacksonville. I would venture that if they beat the Jaguars this weekend, their odds will spike to about -2500. So you probably won't find more favorable odds later this season, especially with Indy likely to lose in Minnesota in Week 15, and with Jacksonville facing the Cowboys and Jets after this weekend.
Shifting to the AFC East, I'm going to take a not-so-big leap and advise that Buffalo should win the division, as their remaining schedule (including home games against the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots, as well as a favorable road matchup in Chicago), gives them a high probability of a 3-2 or 4-1 finish.
Realistically, only Miami (one game behind Buffalo) can catch them — except the Fins have three tough road games against the Chargers, Bills, and Patriots, as well as home tilts versus the Packers and Jets. If you see a 4-1 or 5-0 finish, then you're more bullish than me.
Divisional Matchups Will Be Key
Regarding the AFC playoff odds, almost everything comes down to what happens when these intra-divisional rivals face off repeatedly down the stretch.
The 8-4 Bengals are a near lock, while the 8-4 Ravens — even if Lamar Jackson misses several games — are good bets to finish no worse than 10-7, thanks to home contests against the Falcons and Steelers. Even 9-8 might be enough to eke by.
After facing Miami this weekend, the 6-6 Chargers close out against the Titans, @Colts, Rams, and @Broncos. Nine wins seem realistic. Ten is possible if they play to their potential against the Dolphins.
I strongly believe — despite conventional wisdom suggesting otherwise — that the mighty AFC East will dole out only one Wild Card spot, and that the Chargers and Ravens (or Bengals) will secure the other two.
The 7-5 Jets have four more tough matchups, including three on the road. At 6-6, New England closes the season facing the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills.
Where does that leave us? Are you ready?!
I'm going "No" on the Raiders at -1200 and "Yes" on the Chargers at +140.
For the final three options laid out by DraftKings, I'm going "Yes" on the Dolphins (-650), "No" on the Jets (-120), and "No" on the Patriots (-360).
The Bears are the only mathematically eliminated NFC team. The 3-9 Rams and 4-9 Saints are hanging by threads — or perhaps just one thread.
The 4-8 Cardinals, meanwhile, have no room for error with the Patriots, Bucs, and 49ers on the horizon. I don't see how they can realistically finish better than 8-9, and their woeful 3-6 conference record (a potential tiebreaker killer) suggests 8-9 won't be enough.
The 4-8 Panthers have road games against Seattle, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans, along with two tough home matchups versus Pittsburgh and Detroit. They have the benefit of being 1-0 on the 6-6 Bucs in the NFC South, setting up their Week 17 rematch as a possible make-or-break contest. Still, they'd need Tampa to finish 2-3 or even 1-4 to have a remote shot at passing them.
So I'd bet "Yes" on the Bucs (-750) reaching the postseason, assuming Atlanta (5-8) cannot make up ground against the Saints, Ravens, Cardinals, and Buccaneers. Doable for the Falcons? Sure. But not likely.
In the NFC North, with the Vikings up five games, the 5-7 Lions — as well as the 5-8 Packers — pretty much have to go 4-1 and 4-0, respectively, the rest of the way. Green Bay almost certainly will stumble against the Dolphins and/or Vikings in Weeks 16 and 17. If they're out of contention by Week 18 (when they face the Lions), we might see Green Bay sit Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and other starters.
This is critically important because this would be a tough road matchup for Detroit. But because of the Packers' schedule, the Lions might luck into an easier-than-expected finale. If they can get by Minnesota at home this weekend, their next three opponents will be the Jets, Panthers, and Bears. All are winnable games.
So while I'm going "No" on the Packers (-2500), I'm going a firm "Yes" on the Lions (+700), assuming Detroit finishes at least 9-8.
Four other teams are pushing to go 9-8 or better. One — the Cowboys — are already 9-3, and we should assume they'll snag one Wild Card spot (assuming the 11-1 Eagles win the NFC East).
The NFC West Could Get Interesting
The other three teams are the 7-4-1 Giants, 7-5-1 Commanders, and 7-5 Seahawks. Seattle is actually in a fascinating situation, as they could realistically overtake the 8-4 Niners in the NFC West. Seattle's remaining opponents consist of the Panthers, Niners, @Chiefs, Jets, and Rams.
Yes, that's four home games, with the San Francisco faceoff likely deciding the division title. Fortunately for the 49ers, they don't have to win that game to still claim a Wild Card berth, thanks to three favorable home tilts versus the Bucs, Commanders, and Cardinals.
I don't care that Brock Purdy is their QB. San Fran is built for a Super Bowl run beyond the quarterback position. That means I'm a solid "Yes" on the Niners making the playoffs at -1400 odds, as well as the Seahawks (-400).
MORE: NFL Super Bowl Odds 2023
If you're counting on your fingers or toes, you know we're all out of NFC playoff spots. Yet, the Giants and Commanders remain. What gives?! How can I claim neither team will get in?
The 7-5-1 Commanders get the Giants again, and then @49ers, Browns, and Cowboys. I don't see how they can finish better than 9-7-1, and 8-8-1 seems realistic. With -165 odds to make the playoffs and +135 to miss them, I'm going "No."
Finally, a couple weeks ago, I laid out the reasons why the 7-3 Giants were "longshots" to reach the postseason. Now 7-4-1, things aren't looking any brighter. They've got two games against Philly and one against Minnesota, along with a tough road rematch with Washington (plus a winnable game versus the Colts).
I believe New York will go 1-4 or 2-3 the rest of the way, leaving them at 8-8-1 or 9-7-1. Their odds of making the playoffs are more than 7x higher than the Lions'. Yet, I believe Detroit has a similar probability.
Based on the far better payout for Detroit, you might understand why the Lions are my preferred choice, while the Giants are a better "No" bet at +100 odds.
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