adma wrote:
They'll be live here
http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/
Here, to be precise:
http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp
John Turmel is also running in this race? Man, this guy gets around! :)
Look forward to him running in BC sometime.
5 polls out of 238:
Thibeault - 49.0
Shabonquit - 28.2
Peroni - 14.1
Olivier - 6.0
Alice Funke is tweeting the results here:
https://twitter.com/punditsguide/with_replies
NDP just pulled into lead!
Olivier is underperforming from what the polls said he would get.
Could be good news for the NDP.
Looks like it will be a long night. Go Suzanne!
Northern Life Live Feed:
Thibeault & Shawbonquit headquarters:
http://live.northernlife.ca/2015/02/05/watch-2015-sudbury-byelection.html
Basement Dweller
The Basement Dweller decision desk declares an NDP win at 9:26pm.
Olivier is polling below projections, as I expected. Get out the vote operations - particularly crucial in low turnout by-elections - require a party machinery.
NDP up by 6% over Thibeault w 25 polls. Olivia has faded to about 11%. It seems some of his vote may have shifted to NDP. Long night ahead
ctrl190 wrote:
Very true. I am wondering which polling stations have reported so far as well. Alberta reports each polling station as they come in. Wish everyone else would do same.
And it's Misty Meadow three lengths behind and closing in fast...
With just over a quarter of the polls reporting, Suzanne has a 6% lead.
NDP numbers which are more complete than El On have NDP now up 2700 to 2300.
If this trend holds up, Suzanne will win with a larger plurality than Cimino's(though her vote share may be slightly smaller than his).
Sid Ryan has more up to date numbers
https://mobile.twitter.com/SidRyan_OFL
Yeesh, polls are tightening.
Basement Dweller wrote:
Way too early to predict.
Thibeault is not doing as well as predicted, but he's going to pull ahead in the next few polls.
Whether Thibeault's lead holds up until the end though remains to be seen.
Reports from Sudbury Liberal HQ now have Thibeault leading. (per Rob Silver).
On the ground reports are ahead of Elections Ontario website.
I stand behind my decision desk. It is based on solid sadistical analysis and sound sceintific principalia.
If Sid Ryan's numbers are right, looks like Liberals have this.
josh wrote:
Sure looks like it yup.
Hunky_Monkey
Unbelievable. Criminal activity on the part of the Liberals but they still manage to win?
I'm hoping the NDP pulls ahead again.
Hunky_Monkey wrote:
Nothing has been proven in court yet.
Although I agree that even though Wynne is likely to pull off a victory over Horwath (& Mulcair) tonight, there are going to be some reverberations for the OLP because of the way this was handled.
Not going to happen. Too big a lead for the criminals. As bad as politics is in the U.S. I find it less depressing than what is ocurring across Canada right now and I'm feeling glad to have left.
Thibeault is ahead by about 1,000 votes.
I don't think Shawbonquit can catch him now.
I wonder if Wynne will still name him to cabinet. Make it look all the more sleazy. You know it was offered but with possible criminal charges...
I hope OLP has learned something from this. They need to make sure they do everything above board when they ask a candidate to leave the race.
They should have just barred Olivier from running. The leader has the right to bar any candidate. There was no need to ask Olivier to step aside.
Horwath loses another seat, but Wynne will have some questions to answer herself in the days ahead.
Is there anybody on the ground who can answer what role, if any, that racism could have played in the result?
If the report about a criminal investigation was released a week ago that may have had an effect. An investigation may mean that Wynne might be interviewed. For the Liberals this could be a case of winning the battle but losing the war.
I hope not. I think people know that the Liberals are in government and they stand to benefit by having an MPP on the government side. I also think the OPP could have acted sooner, and perhaps deliberately dragged their heals on this.
My post above was in reference to Aristotled24's post
As David Akin just said, this is also a slap in the face to Tom Mulcair. He campaigned against Thibeault in Sudbury and yet the voters elected the man who walked out of his caucus.
Looking at the numbers, the Liberals appear to have held their vote from the general election (actually up slightly) and that the anti-Liberal vote split between Shawbonquit and Oliver. The Ontario PCs appear to have lost a great deal of ground from 2014.
Oh well, the NDP will win this one back in 3 years.
Debater, I doubt voters went to the polls in a provincial byelection with a federal party leader on their mind at all, and especially not with the purpose of slapping anyone's face.
Let Debater gloat. Think he did the same when the Liberals won Winnipeg North five months before the 2011 election.
And yes, if this report was released even a few days ago, the result might have been different. Oh well.
Aristotle, in fairness to the PC's, I don't think they bothered to put much effort into this. And they are busy with their leadership race anyway.
Misfit, I didn't say this by-election was about Tom Mulcair. I said that analysts are pointing out that he campaigned hard in Sudbury but once again it shows he has no coattails on the campaign trail.
Here's what David Akin posted a few minutes ago:
Also: @ThomasMulcair campaigned in #onpoli Sudbury. His opponents will remind him: he wears some of this:
I also think the OPP could have acted sooner, and perhaps deliberately dragged their heals on this.
I think perhaps the NDP's angry reaction in the absence of the OPP acting created an impression of "sour grapes" among the electorate.
Ari, it could be. It could also be that the MSM downplayed the seriousness of what transpired in the absence off the OPP doing their job expediently, and some were simply not fully aware.
Because I don't like the way Wynne handled this and I think she needs to be checked. The Liberals were very fortunate that voters decided not to hold Wynne responsible for the corruption within the Liberal party. The Liberal party would still have a majority so it wouldn't reduce their power any. Shawbonquit didn't have as illustrious a background as Thibeault but she is a very credible candidate and both aboriginal and a woman. This matters, even if the impact is only symbolic due to the Liberal majority. Every aboriginal woman who wins an election encourages others to try and in small part redresses the wrong.
What impact did The Hair have in the Kitchener byelection? Didn't the Liberals finish third? You would think someone of Trudeau's brillance and star power, leader or not, would have propelled the Liberals to a first place showing then. Funny that.
Mulcair campaigned in this riding, I recommend he campaigns in all 338 ridings, will help the liberals. Congragulations a former NDPer has won!
The Federal Liberals have increased their share of the vote in all 11 Federal by-elections that have taken place under Justin Trudeau and won back 2 seats.
And btw, you've mentioned Winnipeg North & the 2011 Election many times over the past couple years. We know all about that. But the 2011 Election was a unique event because of Jack Layton and a lot of other factors. You can't assume the same thing is going to happen again in 2015. So far the patterns are very different. WN was not a Liberal win, anyway, it was a Kevin Lamoureux win. Ignatieff lost ground in almost all the other by-elections under his leadership (and lost Vaughan). By contrast, the Liberals have gained ground under Trudeau in all by-elections. So do you see how the 2015 pattern is already different than the one in 2011?
Would this be the same 2011 election where the Liberals went on to hold Winnipeg North?
232 Polls out of 238
Thibeault (OLP) 10,017 (41.0%)
Shawbonquit (ONDP) 8,713 (35.6%)
We'll see where the criminal investigation leads. This may turn out to be a very expensive win for Wynne.
Aristotleded24 wrote:
Yes. And same election where they lost 43 seats.
Yes, Debater, I brought it up before. You can't tell what's going to happen in a general election based on byelection results. And in this case, a provincial byelection would have almost zip to do with how the next federal election turns out.
And if you want to look at byelections before a general election, ask Adrian Dix or Andrea Horwath. Though I know you're aware of that, Debater. You're just being your typical Liberal self on here. I should do like most do and just ignore you.