how do we approach the subjective estimates of probability of events? how to approach subjective probability how to model the average probability how is variance explained by teams how many people make probability estimates how is variance explained? what does the probability of an event vary? how many different people work in the forecasting team of lmer how many people make probability estimates? when you model subjective probability how to approach the variance in the probability of an event how do you approach probability estimates how much variance is explained by which team members were randomly assigned to? average probability estimates of events how do you approach subjective probability estimation with lmer how much of the variance explained by team members will vary by event? how many people can make predictions on an event how many people make a forecast how does a probability estimate work what is the variance of probability models