An increase of energy productivity, in order to use energy as economically as possible in production and consumption, is an important contribution to environmental sustainability. However this text investigates the question, to what extent productivity increases create "unwanted side effects" in form of an increased demand for energy (so called rebound effects), which counteract the goal of energy conservation. The text differentiates 13 possible rebound effects, sketches out their quantitative dimension, and describes the difficulties to prevent them with political measures. As a result, it appears urgently necessary to consider in the future rebound effects in scientific scenarios and policy-making. For due to the diversity of possible rebound effects and the estimate that the sum of these effects will consume about half of the saving potentials of efficiency measures also in the long run, sustainability goals such as an 80-90 % reduction of greenhouse gases in industrialised countries up to the year 2050 become unattainable by efficiency and consistency strategies alone. Only if gross national income stops growing can efficiency and consistency strategies realise their technical saving potential and, thus, fully positively contribute to achieve sustainability goals.
Der Rebound-Effekt - Über die unerwünschten Folgen der erwünschten Energieeffizienz
Impulse zur WachstumsWende no. 5 (March 2012)