The 2018 monsoon has made a strong entry causing damage by flooding farms and plantations in the south. Kerala has been suffering from death and damages due to the swelling of reservoirs and opening of dams. While Kerala is in a gloomy state facing the worst flooding in almost a century, many other parts of the country rain has brought joy to the farmers.
Soybean farmers in central India are especially delighted with the arrival of rain. Other rain-starved parts of the country are also praising the unpredictable showers after over two months. However, rains in Kerala have destroyed the cardamom, rubber and coffee plantations along with few others. They have also caused about 47 deaths and left many people homeless. Reports have stated that the damage might continue for the next two weeks.
The Australian weather office has warned the country of flood threats. “Monsoon rain triggered deadly flooding across parts of India in recent days and additional flooding is expected this week,” said Eric Leister, senior meteorologist at US-based forecaster AccuWeather. He said that unruly rain showers and thunderstorms are a risk for New Delhi (NCR) and the west coast of India from southern Maharashtra through Kerala will continue to be affected.
Monsoon – the essence of India
With about 70% of the Indian population dependent on agriculture, monsoon is the most crucial factor for the $2 trillion economy. Almost 263 million farmers are benefited with the monsoon season where the country experiences about 70% of annual rainfall.
About 15% of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is dependent on good monsoon rains for flourishment of the agricultural sector. With almost 800 million people dependent on agriculture, both ends of extremity of monsoon can have huge negative effects on India’s economy and growth. A good monsoon season with well distributed rain showers enhances the farm output and boosts the farmers’ income, making it the most crucial factor for the economy.
About 65% of India’s population is rural and is dependent on agriculture directly or indirectly. With 50% of the land un-irrigated, it relies upon the rains or any other man-made facilitators. The years 2015 and 2016 saw poor rains making it quite hard for the farmers to see their crops and farms prosper. However, because of the abundance of rainfall, this year the country is expecting grow about 3.5% which would result in about a 0.5% contribution to the overall GDP.
Monsoon contributes to the structural growth of the country
As per Goldman Sachs, the season is also amplified because of the current political cycle. General elections of 2019 might see more infrastructure spending and experience an incremental bias towards spending more on the rural economy. Combining good monsoon and the foreseeable investment, the country can expect a very good recovery story for the likes of consumer staples and consumer durables.
However, bad monsoon rains can cause repercussions, detracting the structural growth that is expected. Nature can intensify or disrupt the highlighting structural growth prospects.
India’s agricultural sector’s dependency on rains have welcomed a lot of negative outcomes. The issue of too much rain or too less rain makes the farmers and the whole sector suffer. Why is it that the government has not been able to build a regular and proper irrigation system in 72 years? Being an agriculture based nation, it is the government’s responsibility to take care of the country’s sector in case of rain causing floods or no rains at all. Agriculture in India is left for the mother nature to decide its fate.
There are countries far better in matters of innovation and have adopted modern technology in the agriculture sector. For example, Israel’s geographical conditions for agriculture are not naturally conductive but that doesn’t stop it from being the most highly developed agriculture industry in the world. The country’s climate is not suitable and more than half of its area is a desert. The water conditions are not good but still the country produces huge amounts of crops depending on technology and not the nature.
India can be benefited from the good monsoon season and this year can witness a greater potential for the agriculture sector.