Noted hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University has had some interesting discussion and stats on his Twitter feed, for example:
10 years ago today, TD 10’s remnants brewed north of Hispaniola. 8 days later, Katrina was a Category 5 in the Gulf.
It is worth noting that 2005 had 11 named storms, seven of which hit land and five of which caused major damage. In contrast to that era, we’ve recently seen the fourth named storm in the Atlantic, Hurricane Danny, fizzle out back to tropical storm status last Saturday, and now as a tropical depression is listed as remnant status by NHC. Given NOAA’s recent update for a below normal season, this isn’t surprising.
The remnants of Danny is forecast to hit Haiti and the Dominican Republic this week, the storm could still cause some wind-and-rain damage to island infrastructure. But, its days as a hurricane or organized tropical storm are likely over as El-Nino-fueled shearing winds tore apart its core, weakening it in the process. Klotzbach noted:
30-day-averaged Caribbean shear remains at record high levels (since 1979).
Clearly, wind shear dismantled Danny, and this increased wind shear is likely the biggest reason for our major hurricane drought continuing this year.
Klotzbach found that wind shear has been record-breaking this summer in the Caribbean, exceeding conditions present during the big El Nino year of 1997.
The Washington Post’s Angela Fritz wrote about this last month.
“As hurricanes develop from thunderstorms, they need to grow tall in the atmosphere as heat and moisture is concentrated in the middle of the storm,
If winds are too strong at the upper levels, it can tear a young storm apart, or even prevent it from developing in the first place.”
Klotzbach also noted that Danny distinguished itself as one of the weaker recent hurricanes:
Danny generated 9.2 ACE. This is the least generated by a MH forming south of 20N, east of 60W since 1950 – beating Fred in 2009 (9.9 ACE).
This follows the below normal season so far this year:
North Atlantic TC stats update thru 8/23. TC activity running ~75% of normal to date.
Since 2011, 6 of 9 (67%) of Atlantic major hurricanes (MH) have lasted less than 1 day at MH strength. The 1900-2000 average is 29%
But Nature abhors a vacuum, and in the Pacific, Klotzbach notes it is a different ballgame:
Northeast Pacific (East of 180W) TC stats update thru 8/23. Activity about 150% of normal to date.
The NW Pac has already had more Cat.3+ typhoons (9) in 2015 than they got in average 1981-2010 season (8.9 Cat.3+ typhoons).
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. notes on his Twitter feed that the trend lately is for less hurricane related disaster losses, which flies in the face of climate change advocate claims that hurricanes and their damage are getting worse.
US hurricanes account for ~65% of global disaster losses. Hence the attached is no surprise.
Tough times for alarmism, I’d say.