Climate change impact on water balance of quasi-closed lagoons in the North-Western Black Sea coast
The paper studies the impact of regional climate changes that occurred in the past and are expected to occur in the near future on the components of the annual fresh water balance of quasi-closed lagoons in the North-Western Black Sea coast. Currently these lagoons have no permanent connection with the sea. However, there are some episodic connections via artificially created channels, ducts and other waterworks. The value of insufficiency of the studied lagoons' annual fresh water balance is used as an indicator of their ecosystems' sensitivity to climate change. Action plans must be created and implemented for the lagoons that are the most sensitive to changes in regional climatic conditions in order to achieve and maintain their "good" environmental quality status.
The climate-induced changes of meteorological parameters in the North-Western Black Sea coast that determine the components of the lagoons' water balance are estimated for two periods: the current one from 2000 to 2018 (based on the observations made at coastal meteorological stations) and the near-future one of 2021-2050 which is compared to the 1961-1990 period (based on the data of the Climate Cadastre of Ukraine). The expected climatic conditions in the near future (2021-2050) were determined by the RCM simulations of the Euro-CORDEX project for the RCP4.5 climate change scenario.
The research evaluates the components of the lagoons' fresh water balance (precipitation reaching the lagoons' water surface, fresh water inflow from the catchments, evaporation from the lagoons' water surface) and identifies the residuals (shortages) of annual balance. It uses the "climate-runoff" hydrological model for the above climatic periods to determine the fresh water inflow into the lagoons through the watercourses of their catchment areas. The annual evaporation layer from the lagoons' water surface was evaluated using the long-term average monthly values of temperature and relative humidity for each of the periods.
It was established that the climatic changes that occurred earlier and those expected in the current century caused and will cause the increasing insufficiency of the annual fresh water balance of quasi-closed lagoons in the North-Western Black Sea coast. This can threaten salinization, shallowing or even disappearance of some lagoons. Thus new strategies for water and environmental management of such lagoons must be developed. In terms of vulnerability to climate changes leading to significant annual insufficiency of fresh water balance (if there are no other water sources, e.g. water from the sea), lagoons are ranked in the following order: Kuialnytskyi Lagoon, Dofinivskyi Lagoon, Budatskyi Lagoon (if there is no water inflow from the Dnistrovskyi Lagoon), the Tuzla group of lagoons, Sasyk Lagoon, Tyligulskyi Lagoon, Hadzhybeisky Lagoon (if there is no anthropogenic runoff).
Rozengurt, M.Sh. (1974). Gidrologiya i perspektivy rekonstruktsii prirodnykh resursov Odesskikh limanov [Hydrology and prospects for the reconstruction of natural resources of the Odessa lagoons]. Kiev: Naukova dumka. (in Russ.)
Zaitsev, Y.P., Aleksandrov, B.G. & Minicheva, G.G. (Eds.), (2006) Severo-zapadnaya chast' Chernogo morya: biologiya i ekologiya [The North-Western Part of the Black Sea: Biology and Ecology]. Kiev : Naukova dumka, pp. 351-255. (in Russ.)
Tuchkovenko, Yu.S. & Gopchenko, E.D. (eds). (2011). Aktual'nye problemy limanov severo- zapadnogo Prichernomor'ya [Topical problems of lagoons of the North-Western Black Sea Region]. OSENU. Odessa : TES Publ. (in Russ.)
Grebin, V.V. (2010). Suchasnyi vodnyi rezhym richok Ukrayiny (landshaftno-hidrolohichnyi analiz) [The modern water conditions of Ukrainian rivers (landscape-hydrological analysis)]. Kyiv: Nika-Centr Publ. (in Ukr.)
Tuchkovenko, Yu.S., Loboda, N.S. (eds). (2014). Vodni resursy ta hidroekolohichnyi stan Tylihulskoho lymanu [Water resources and hydroecological conditions of the Tyligulskiy Liman Lagoon]. OSENU. Odesa : TES Publ. (in Ukr.)
Loboda N.S. & Gopchenko E.D. (eds). (2016). Vodnyy rezhym ta hidroekolohichni kharakterystyky Kuyal’nyts’koho lymanu [Water regime and hydroecological characteristics of Kuyalnitskyi Liman]. OSENU. Odessa: TES Publ. (in Ukr.)
Tuchkovenko, Y.S., & Tuchkovenko, O.A. (2018). The model of eutrophication of marine and estuarine ecosystems in the northwest Black Sea Region. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal, (21), pp. 75-89. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.21.2018.08
Lloret J., Marín A. & Marín-Guirao, L. (2008). Is coastal lagoon eutrophication likely to be aggravated by global climate change? Estuar Coast Shelf Sci, 78(2), pp. 403–412
Anthony, A., Atwood J., August P. et al. (2009). Coastal lagoons and climate change: ecological and social ramifications in U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coast ecosystems. Ecology and Society, 14(1), p.8.
Cataudella, S. et al. (2015). Sustainable management in Mediterranean coastal lagoons: interactions among capture fisheries, aquaculture and the environment. Studies and reviews, No. 95, General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean. Rome. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, pp. 29-35.
La Jeunesse, C. Cirelli, H. Sellami et al. (2015). Is the governance of the Thau coastal lagoon ready to face climate change impacts. Ocean & Coastal Management, 118, part B, pp. 234–246
Gönenç, I.E. & Wolflin, J.P. (eds). (2005). Coastal lagoons: ecosystem processes and modeling for sustainable use and development. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
Renй Friedland (2014). Climate change in the definition of water management objectives. Coastal&Marine, 23(1), pp. 8-9.
Minicheva, G.G. & Sokolov, E.V. (2014). Estimation of the Natural Resistance of Northwestern Prichernomorie Region’s Estuaries in Accordance with a Principles of EU WFD. Scientific reports of NULES of Ukraine, 5 (47). (in Ukr.)
Tuchkovenko, Yu.S. & Kozlov, M.O. (2017). Сurrent water balance of Khadzhibeyskyi liman. Bulletin of Odessa State Environmental University, 21, pp. 66-77. (in Russ.)
Tuchkovenko, Y.S. et al. (2008). Management of hydroecological regimen of Dofinovka estuary. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal, 3, pp. 124-147. (in Russ.)
Sokolov, E.V. (2012). Integrally-diagnostic estimation of the Dofinovskiy Lyman (estuary) ecosystem. Bulletin of Odessa State Environmental University, 14, pp.36-41. (in Russ.)
Shuisky, Yu.D. & Vykhovanetz, G.V. (2011). Priroda Prichernomorskih limanov Nature of limanic coast of the Black Sea. Odesa : Astroprint. (in Russ.)
Burhaz, М.І. (2018). Osoblyvosti formuvannia ikhtiotsenozu Shabolatskoho lymanu v umovakh antropohennoi transformatsii vodoimy Peculiarities of the formation of the ichthyocenosis of the Shabolat estuary in the conditions of anthropogenic transformation of the reservoir. Abstract of Ph.D. Thesis in Hydrobiology. Institute of Marine Biology of the NAS of Ukraine. Odesa. (in Ukr.)
Popova, E.N. (2016). Morphometry and toponymy of the hydrological objects in the National Nature Park “Tuzlovskie Limany”. Odesa National University Herald , 21(2), pp. 64-84. (in Ukr.)
Ivanova, N.O. (2018). The dynamics of the level of the water surface of Sasyk at different stages of the existence of the reservoir. Hidrolohiia, hidrokhimiia i hidroekolohiia. [Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology], 4(51), pp. 63-75. (in Ukr.)
Loboda, N. S. et al. (2021). Assessment of River Water Inflow into the Sasyk Estuary-Reservoir According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenarios for 2021-2050. Journ. Geol. Geograph. Geoecology, 30(2), pp. 315–325.
Timchenko, V.M. (1990). Ekologo-gidrologicheskie issledovaniya vodoemov Severo-Zapadnogo Prichernomor'ya [Environmental and Hydrological Researches into the Water Bodies in the North-Western Black Sea Region]. Institute of Hydrobiology of NASU. Kiev: Naukova Dumka. (in Russ.)
State Hydrometeorological Service of the Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute. Central Geophysical Observatory. (2006). Klimatychnyi Kadastr Ukrainy (elektronna versiia) Climate Cadastre of Ukraine (electronic version). Kyiv. (in Ukr.)
Loboda, N. & Bozhok, Y. (2015) Impact of climate change on water resources of North-Western Black Sea region. Int. J. Res. Earth. Environ, Sci, 2(9), pp. 1–6.
Moss R. H. et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature. 2010, vol. 463, pp. 747-756.
Khokhlov, V., Serga, E., & Neodstrelova, L. (2021). Objective selection of model run from regional climate models ensemble. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal, (28), pp. 29-36. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.28.2021.03 (in Ukr.)
Ivanov, N.N. (1954). Ob opredelenii velichin isparjaemosti On determining the values of evaporation, Izvestiya Glavnoy geofizicheskoy observatorii News of the Main Geophysical Observatory, pp. 189 –196. (in Russ.)
Gopchenko, E.D, et al. (2019). Model' “klimat-stok” v raschetah i prognozah vodnyh resursov Ukrainy Climate-runoff model in calculations and forecasts of water resources of Ukraine. Hidrolohiiа, hidrokhimiiа i hidroekolohiiа Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology, 3 (54), pp. 53-54. (in Russ.)
Loboda, N.S., Kozlov, М.О. & Кuza, А.М. (2019). Forecast estimates of water resources of the North-Western Black Sea coast in the XXI century based on a set of climate scenarios based on the "climate-runoff" model. Materialy Vseukrainskoi naukovo-praktaktychnoi konferentsii “Richky ta lymany Prychornomoria na pochatku XXI storichchia” Proceedings of the All-Ukrainian Scientific and Practical Conference “Rivers and estuaries of the Black Sea at the beginning of the XXI century”, 17-18 October. Odesa, pp. 100-102. (in Ukr.)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.