Predictive technology is still young, but social media, wearable devices and online search can already be used to predict events, including crime.
Social Media Will Help Predict Crime
Sean Young is the executive director of the University of California, Institute for Prediction Technology and a medical school professor in the U.C.L.A. Department of Family Medicine.
Updated November 18, 2015, 3:22 AM
“About to drive drunk, hope I don’t hit someone lol.”
“Rape is the best.”
“Who hurt you? Grab a 9 mm.”
I overheard people say all these things recently. But I wasn’t at a party or eavesdropping on private conversations. These conversations were open to the whole world — on Twitter.
Just five years ago, many people thought social media was a pointless tech fad. But social media's use is no longer in dispute. It allows people to connect with others, express themselves and advertise brands, of course, but it is more than a tool for business and self-promotion. Social media can be used to help predict and prevent crime.
Our research shows how social data — or data from technologies like social media, wearable devices and online search — can be used to predict events, including crime. Working with some of the world’s experts in computer and data science, big data infrastructure, and psychology/behavioral science, we’ve been developing a platform to analyze this social data and spit out real-time predictions about future events and help public health officials prevent disease outbreaks, stop violent crime and reduce poverty.
But social media can already be used to increase safety. Take school shootings: On September 20, 2014, a student at Marysville-Pilchuck high school, located just north of Seattle, began posting tweets that suggested he might harm himself and others. This same student killed himself and four other students at school a month later. During the attack, Marysville-Pilchuck students and teachers used social media to warn each other about how to avoid the shooter.
As predictive technology becomes more available and reliable, it could be used to provide immediate treatment (though a collaboration between law enforcement and mental health professionals) to a person-at-risk to prevent deaths, as well as provide services and information to those in danger.
Every day, there are billions of publicly-available data points that can be used to predict crimes like school shootings. But some people still question whether it’s ethically appropriate to “listen” to these public conversations and use the data. These are important conversations: Technologies, whether they be computer models or novel medical procedures, have risks and benefits. Real-time crime prediction is no exception: It could reduce violence but a consequence may be increased surveillance. We, as a society, should continue to study these ethical questions as we implement innovation.
Although people object to data mining by companies, when it comes to public health, we have found that most people are willing to have their data analyzed. And prediction technology gives us a class of tools that were previously only accessible by secretive agencies like the CIA and NSA. Let’s use them.
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