The Week That Was: 2016-09-24 (September 24, 2016) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Testing EPA’s Endangerment Finding – The Hot Spot: Advances in scientific knowledge are based on evidence – not on untested theories and untested mathematical models. The testing, often called hypothesis testing, can be lengthy and exhausting. For example, the theory of relativity, though virtually universally accepted, is still undergoing testing. Although over 35 years old, the concept that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will cause unprecedented and dangerous global warming has not been thoroughly tested and is highly questionable.
As explained in the February 6 TWTW, in his written testimony to the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space and Technology on February 2, John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville submitted the results of 102 IPCC CIMP-5 Climate Model runs for the Global Bulk Atmospheric Temperature. (Surface to 50,000 feet (15,240 meters)). CIMP-5 is the latest version global climate models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC))
Further, Christy showed that the mathematical global climate models greatly overestimate atmospheric temperatures, where the greenhouse effect takes place. Such over-estimates make these models unsuitable for economic or energy policy. The only exception to Christy’s finding is the model from the Institute of Numerical Mathematics in Moscow. Interestingly, Russia is not curtailing its production of fossil fuels from the fear that it may cause global warming/climate change.
Using statistical analysis, three independent scientists, James Wallace, John Christy, and Joseph D’Aleo tested the hypothesis that there is a tropical hot spot, a pronounced warming trend over the tropics centered at about 10 kilometers, 33,000 feet.
The hot spot was termed the distinct human fingerprint of warming at the November 1995 meeting of the of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientific group in Madrid by John Houghton and Benjamin Santer, and was featured in the 1996 assessment report of the IPCC (AR-2). This was important for signing the international Kyoto Protocol to limit carbon dioxide emissions, unsuccessfully as it turned out. Also, the claimed human-caused hot spot is one of the three lines of evidence given by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to justify regulation of carbon dioxide emissions and the use of fossil fuels which cause them.
The new report, “On the Existence of a ‘Tropical Hot Spot’ Research Report and the Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding” rejects the hypothesis that the tropical hot spot exists – regardless if the cause is human or natural. To do so, it analyzes 5 different datasets in the tropics dating from 1959 to 2015. These include balloon atmospheric data and, buoy and land surface data. As with surface data, balloon data is very limited – it includes a sliver of the atmosphere, but if the hot spot exists, the balloon data should capture it.
Critical to this analysis is that, according to the theory and to the claims by the IPCC and the EPA, the intensity of the proposed warming should increase with increasing altitude up to 10 km (33,000 feet). Again, this is not that the temperatures will increase with altitude (they diminish), but the warming trends will increase with altitude. Fundamental to their analysis, is that the researchers removed the changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns, using NOAA’s established Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). Once the ENSO patterns were removed, there was no tropical hot spot, as others have suggested for years.
Also, the researchers made another intriguing observation. The long period of global cooling, from about 1940 to 1977, led some scientists to speculate that the earth was entering into a new ice age. But, in 1977 it suddenly stopped. At the time, no one could explain why. Subsequently, what is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was discovered. This involves long periods of alternative warming and/ cooling in various parts of the Pacific.
The researchers of this paper reported that between 1947 and 1976, there were 6 years of El Niño (warming) periods and 14 years of La Niña (cooling) periods. During the subsequent period, 1977 to 1998 (a big El Niño year), there were 10 El Niños (warming) periods 3 La Niñas (cooling) periods. Since 1998 to 2015, El Niños and La Niñas have been balanced at 7 each. We will have wait to see what will occur once the current big El Niño period is over.
The researchers call the 1977 shift in El Niño-La Niña frequency, the 1977 Pacific Climate Shift. These observations support the assertions by other researchers that the IPCC, and the EPA , have attributed to carbon dioxide a warming caused by natural variation.
In addition, the researchers note the similarity since 1950 of the Cumulative Solar Intensity with the Cumulative ENSO activity, giving a lead to possible causes of changing Pacific Ocean patterns – and to causes in recorded surface temperatures. The statistical netting out of the changing ENSO influence also netted out the influence of changing solar intensity.
The tropical hot spot, whatever the cause, and the scientific claims built around it, are not supported. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Quote of the Week. “Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. On the contrary, it makes crops and
forests grow faster.” S. Fred Singer
Number of the Week: 4.3 Million Jobs
Testing EPA’s Endangerment Finding – CO2: The IPCC and the EPA claim that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are the primary cause of recent global warming/climate change. Without such claims, there is no purpose for nations to agree to the latest UN effort to limit CO2 emissions (Paris Agreement), or to channel money into the newly established UN – controlled Green Climate Fund.
One must recall that there is no comprehensive surface temperature record that is global. The only global record is by satellites, with small limitations, with the data starting in December 1978. Various government agencies and the IPCC pretend that surface measurements are global. They are not, even though a few measurements started in the 1700s and the US was largely covered starting about 1880, the only country so covered.
Yet, based on these pretenses, the UN, the US administration, and the governments of many Western countries are attempting to frighten the public into accepting an agreement that will severely damage Western economies by severely limiting the use of fossil fuels. The report, “On the Existence of a ‘Tropical Hot Spot’ and the Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding”, challenges the claims that CO2 is responsible for recent warming.
Using the methodology partially described above, and more fully described in the report, the research team netted out the influence of the changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns from 13 datasets, using NOAA’s established Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). These datasets include both tropical and global readings, and include balloons, satellites, buoys, and land-based instrument data. They found there is no statistically significant impact on the 13-time series datasets analyzed from increasing CO2. If the report is correct, the UN Paris Agreement and the EPA Endangerment Finding have no empirical basis, thus no scientific basis. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Testing EPA’s Endangerment Finding – Importance to US Policy: The discussion of the importance of the lines of evidence used by the EPA can be found in the Federal Register/Volume 74, No 239 / Tuesday, Dec 15, 2009/Rules and Regulations (page 66523)
“However, the attribution of most of the recent warming to anthropogenic activities is based on multiple lines of evidence. The first line of evidence arises from our basic physical understanding of the effects of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, natural factors, and other human impacts on the climate system. Greenhouse gas concentrations have indisputably increased and their radiative properties are well established. The second line of evidence arises from indirect, historical estimates of past climate changes that suggest that the changes in global surface temperature over the last several decades are unusual. The third line of evidence arises from the use of computer-based climate models to simulate the likely patterns of response of the climate system to different forcing mechanisms (both natural and anthropogenic). These models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are included in the simulations. Natural forcing alone cannot explain the observed warming. In fact, the assessment literature 27 indicates the sum of solar and volcanic forcing in the past half century would likely have produced cooling, not warming. Please see the relevant volume of the Response to Comments for more detailed responses.” (Boldface added)
The regulations go on to state “The Air Pollution Is Reasonably Anticipated To Endanger Both Public Health and Welfare”; thus, claiming the EPA has the power to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. Of the greenhouse gases being regulated, only CO2 is significant. The other gases can be regulated under other provisions of the Clean Air Act, or their quantities are insignificant. Of course, the most important greenhouse gas is water vapor, which the EPA would have great difficulty in regulating.
Based on the new study, and other studies, contrary to the claims stated in the regulations, the understanding of 1) the physical effects of “changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, natural factors, and other human impacts on the climate system” are poorly understood; 2) any unusual nature of the recent rise in surface temperature is likely from change in land use and natural variation, not greenhouse gases; and 3) computer-based climate models have failed in predictions, thus are not evidence. The models simply do not capture natural variation, and likely misidentified natural variation as influence from carbon dioxide. Also, the claim that the sum of solar and volcanic forcing for the past half-century would have produced cooling is probably false.
There are numerous references to these types of “evidence” in other federal regulations and policy recommendations regarding CO2 and fossil fuels. They do not constitute credible scientific knowledge.
If the study, and similar studies, hold, the Paris Agreement, the Administration’s power plan, and similar efforts to control CO2 emissions are standing on a three-legged stool of evidence that is toppling over, if not collapsing. Note: As with the researchers, the peer-reviewers of this study are distinguished, independent scientists, not beholding to anyone or any organization. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, After Paris! and https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2009-12-15/pdf/E9-29537.pdf
Federal Orders: Mr. Obama has ordered federal agencies to consider the impacts of climate when establishing a policy, including the development of national security-related doctrine, policies, and plans. “To achieve this, 20 Federal agencies and offices with climate science, intelligence analysis, and national security policy development missions and responsibilities will collaborate to ensure the best information on climate impacts is available to strengthen our national security.” Will they consider the report discussed above? See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
Quote of the Week: The quote this week was featured in an op-ed in the Washington Post by Michael “Hockey-stick” Mann and cartoonist Tom Toles. Apparently, quote was thought to justify the personal assaults in the article.
“Singer is the most prolific of the deniers-for-hire. Formerly a Cold War physicist and an environmental science professor at the University of Virginia, he left academia in 1990 to found a think tank, the Science and Environmental Policy Project, with a mission of debunking the science of ozone depletion, climate change, tobacco and other environmental and health threats. He has received considerable funding from corporate interests, including tobacco company Philip Morris, seed and pesticide company Monsanto and energy company Texaco. His many works include a 2009 report titled “Climate Change Reconsidered,” which concludes that “a warmer world will be a safer and healthier world for humans and wildlife alike.” The report has been dismissed as ‘fabricated nonsense.’”
No doubt, the authors consider the thousands of studies in the laboratory and the field showing increased atmospheric CO2 benefits green plants, thus agriculture and the environment to be “fabricated nonsense.”
The President of SEPP has written Fred Ryan, editor of the Post, a letter requesting the physical evidence, not hearsay, supporting the accusation: “He [Singer] has received considerable funding from corporate interests, including tobacco company Philip Morris, seed and pesticide company Monsanto and energy company Texaco.” Will a reply be forthcoming? See link under Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Important Correction: Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, graciously corrected several poorly written sentences in the last TWTW. The sentences dealt with feeding seasons of the Arctic’s top predator, polar bears, and its chief prey, seals. The bears feed heavily in the late winter and spring when the ice is heavy, but not too thick, and the seals have few escape possibilities. The seals feed heavily in the summer when the Arctic has far less ice, the fish plentiful, and the seals difficult for bears to catch. TWTW appreciates that Susan Crockford made these important corrections. See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
Number of the Week: 4.3 Million Jobs: A report by the Institute for 21st Century Energy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that the energy revolution, the increase in oil and natural gas production due to hydraulic fracturing, created 4.3 million jobs in the US. Any report such as this is subject to minor challenges but the direction and magnitude are important. Also, the report estimates that the US economy would be $500 billion smaller, electricity prices 30% higher and motor fuels 40% higher. Natural gas prices would be 30% higher for residences and 90% for industry. The oil and gas revolution has been far more successful and long-lasting in boosting the economy than the $800 billion stimulus bill. Based on quick calculations, without these jobs, the official unemployment rate would be about 7.6% rather than 4.9%. See links under The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
New Science 26: The solar fall and the delay means David Evans’ predicted global cooling could be just around the corner
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Sep 23, 2016
“The notch-delay hypothesis predicts sustained and significant global cooling starting sometime from 2017 to 2022, of ~0.3 °C but perhaps milder.
“If the predicted cooling does not eventuate then the notch-delay hypothesis is false.”
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
4 (Four) New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 1700s, 1800s
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 22, 2016
Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies
*by Javier, Climate Etc. Sep 20, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Long post.]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt
Documents show Eric Schneiderman’s #ExxonKnew coalition crumbling from within
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 23, 2016
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The most important assumption in EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding has been conclusively invalidated
By Staff Writers, ICECAP, Sep 18, 2016
Link to Abridged Research Report: “On the Existence of a ‘Tropical Hot Spot’ and the Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding”
By James Wallace, John Christy, and Joseph D’Aleo Aug 2016
Prepared Testimony to House Committee on Science, Space & Technology
By John Christy, UAH, Feb 2, 2016
New Report Definitively Shows UN CAGW Hypothesis and IPCC Reports Invalid and Thus CPP and Paris Treaty Total Wastes
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep 21, 2016 [Revised Sep 23, 2016]
[SEPP Comment: In the additional comments, the acronym MEI is for NOAA’s Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Index and D-W for Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for autocorrelation.]
The “Science” Underlying Climate Alarmism Turns Up Missing
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 19, 2016
Remembering Madrid ’95: A Meeting that Changed the World
By Bernard Lewin, Enthusiasm, Scepticism and Science, Nov 21, 2016
IPCC ‘s Bogus Evidence for Global Warming
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Nov 12, 2013
Defending the Orthodoxy
An Open Letter Regarding Climate Change From Concerned Members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences
By Staff Writers, Responsible Scientists.org, Sep 2, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
[SEPP Comment: No evidence given supporting the usual claim. The organizers are not identified on the web site. The web site of Climate Science Rapid Response Team identifies Dr. John Abraham, Prof. Scott Mandia, Professor Michael Ashley and Dr. Jan Dash; http://www.climaterapidresponse.org/matchmakers.php]
Obama Orders Consideration of Climate Change in National Security Planning
By Natalie Johnson, Washington Free Beacon, Sep 21, 2016 [H/t Timothy Wise]
White House Release: FACT SHEET: President Obama Takes A Historic Step To Address The National Security Implications Of Climate Change
By Staff Writers, Office of the Press Secretary, Sep 21, 2016
Presidential Memorandum — Climate Change and National Security
Press Release, The White House, Sep 21, 2016
Government energy policy wonk [Secretary of Energy] predicts U.S. will have climate laws by end of decade
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 19, 2016
Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Products
By Staff Writers, IPCC, for 44th session, Bangkok, 17-20 October 2016
The United Nations to bring the Paris climate agreement into force early
By Timmons Roberts and Guy Edwards, Brookings, Sep 20, 2016
Want to Slow Climate Change? Stop Having Babies
The alternative? “Give up your toys.”
By Eric Roston, Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2016
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The “Alice-in-Wonderland” consensus position
By Staff Writer, Trust, yet verify, Sep 22, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Demolishing the statement: “the consensus position that global warming is happening, is human caused, and presents a global problem is shared by more than 95 % of domain experts and more than 95 % of relevant articles in the peer-reviewed literature (Anderegg et al. 2010; Cook et al. 2013, 2016; Doran and Zimmerman 2009; Oreskes 2004; Shwed and Bearman 2010).”]
You Ought to Have a Look: How Climate Alarm Becomes a Self-promulgating Collective Belief
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, Cato, Sep 16, 2016
German Geologist Thinks Policymakers Need To Take Geology 101 Before Entering Climate Discussion
Land area gains despite sea level rise: coastal areas have grown 13,500 sq km over past 30 years
By geologist Dr. Sebastian Luning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt. (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks zone, Sep 21, 2016
Polar bears seldom catch seals they stalk in summer – it’s why they fast
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 23, 2016
3 Ways Trump Could Abandon the Paris Climate Pact
By John Upton, Climate Central, Sep 19, 2016
Australia needs a Paris Plebiscite
By Viv Forbes, Australian Climate Sceptics, Sep 19, 2016
By William Briggs, His Blog, Sep 23, 2016
[SEPP Comment: The art of putting numbers on opinions or other vague concepts, then pretending its science.]
Let the Arguments Begin
By Doug Domenech, Real Clear Energy, Sep 19, 2016
Paris Climate Deal Inches Closer to an Iota of Relevance
By staff Writers, American Interest, Sep 21, 2016
The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back
Report: US Would Have Bled 4.5 Mil Jobs Were It Not For The Oil Revolution
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Sep 22, 2016
Link to press release of report: Second Energy Accountability Series Report Quantifies Economic Impact of Energy Revolution
By Staff Writers, Institute for 21st Century Energy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Accessed Sep 23, 2016
Link to report: WHAT IF… America’s Energy Renaissance Never Actually Happened?
By Staff Writers, Institute for 21st Century Energy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Accessed Sep 23, 2016
Obama’s Africa Power Plan Falls Short, Leaving Continent In Dark
By Toluse Olorunnipa and Tope Alake, Bloomberg, Sep 21, 2016
The EPA’s “Power Plan” Is An Unlawful Power Grab
By Marlow Lewis, Daily Caller, Sep 23, 2016
Seeking a Common Ground
Modeling Climate Change Policy Decisions Using a Probability Tree
Guest essay by Michael Cochrane, WUWT, Sep 21, 2016
Wall Street Journal Lurches Left
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 23, 2016
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Five Decades of Shoreline Change on Diego Garcia Atoll
Purkis, S.J., Gardiner, R., Johnston, M.W. and Sheppard, C.R.C. 2016. A half-century of coastline change in Diego Garcia – The largest atoll island in the Chagos. Geomorphology 261: 282-298. Sep 22, 2016
Changes in Diurnal Temperature Range on the Tibetan Plateau
You, Q., Min, J., Jiao, Y., Sillanpaa, M. and Kang, S. 2016. Observed trend of diurnal temperature range in the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades. International Journal of Climatology 36: 2633-2643. Sep 22, 2016
Modelling the Arabian Sea SST Evolution from Spring to Summer
Sayantani, O., Gnanaseelan, C., Chowdary, J.S., Parekh, A. and Rahul, S. 2016. Arabian Sea SST evolution during spring to summer transition period and the associated processes in coupled climate models. International Journal of Climatology 36: 2541-2554. Sep 21, 2016
Measurement Issues — Surface
Removing The 1940’s Blip
By Tony Heller, Real Science, Sep 23,2016
NOAA’s Congo Fraud
By Tony Heller, Real Science, Sep 23,2016
[SEPP Comment: More data manipulation by NOAA – this time the Congo.]
Floods Not Increasing Across the U.S.
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, Cato, Sep 21, 2016
Spin Cycle: Attributing Louisiana Floods to Global Warming
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, Cato, Sep 20, 2016
Today’s weather is hardly unique: Opposing view
Glib attributions of recent weather (as opposed to ‘climate’) phenomena are more wishful than reality.
By Patrick J. Michaels, USA Today, Sep 8, 2016
Link to study: Understanding perceptions of changing hurricane strength along the US Gulf coast
By Shao, Xian, Deim, Goidel, and Lin, International Journal of Climatology, June 20, 2016
Westerly winds have blown across central Asia for at least 42 million years
By Staff Writers, Seattle WA (SPX), Sep 15, 2016
“During the Eocene, the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Mountains were much lower, temperatures were hot, new mammal species were rapidly emerging, and Earth’s atmosphere contained three to four times more carbon dioxide than it does today.”
[SEPP Comment: Devastates arguments that current climate change is disastrous. In such latitudes, westerly winds are from the west.]
Are long tide gauge records in the wrong place to measure global mean sea level rise?†
By Thompson, Hamlington, Landerer & Adhikari, Geophysical Research, Sep 19, 2016
“The analyzed records have an average 20th century rate of approximately 1.6 mm/yr, but based on the locations of these gauges, we show the simple average underestimates the 20th century global mean rate by 0.1 ± 0.2 mm/yr.”
[SEPP Comment: The precision is doubtful.]
Big headline climate funds, all puff, no money — Red tape strangles Pacific Islands. No one cares.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 22, 2016
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
A Ten-Year Hiatus In Arctic Ice Decline?
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Sep 22, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Issues from not carefully looking at the data.]
Arctic ice – a historical viewpoint
Guest essay by Roger Graves, WUWT, Sep 23, 2016
Is the Arctic sea ice ‘spiral of death’ dead?
By Greg Goodman, Climate Etc. Sep 18, 2016
NASA’s IceBridge Mission Checks Summer Melt at Greenland Ice Sheet
By Kacey Deamer, Live Science, Sep 15, 2016
More Arctic Records Being Set
By Tony Heller Real Science, Sep 23, 2016
Long Invisible, Research Shows Volcanic CO2 Levels Are Staggering (Op-Ed)
By Robin Wylie, University College London, Live Science, Oct 15, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
World’s oldest rock offers insights into early continental crust formation
By Brooks Hays, Edmonton, Alberta (UPI), Sep 19, 2016
Could Massive White Cliffs Be Forming Beneath Antarctica’s Ocean?
By Tia Ghose, Live Science, Sep 16, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Link to paper: Factors regulating the Great Calcite Belt in the Southern Ocean and its biogeochemical significance
By William Balch, et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Aug 10, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Seems to contradict the claims of the alarmists that the oceans are becoming acidic!]
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Sep 19, 2016
The BBC On Thick Ice Again…
By Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph, Via GWPF, Sep 18, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Why don’t these adventurers do what early explores did when frozen in – wait out the winter? On one such voyage, the explorers sank their boat, rather than have it crushed by the ice, then re-surfaced it, upon the spring thaw.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Southeast Asian haze crisis killed over 100,000: study
By Sam Reeves, Jakarta (AFP), Sept 19, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Based on calculations of some 90,000 early deaths from un-tested models, but few bodies.]
Eastern forests use up nitrogen in soil during earlier, greener springs
By Staff Writers, Frostburg MD (SPX), Sep 15, 2016
Polar bears losing crucial sea ice: study
By Maritte Le Roux, Paris (AFP), Sept 14, 2016
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Greenland Ice Loss 40 Trillion Pounds Bigger Than Thought
By Seth Borenstein, AP science writer, ABC, Sep 21, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
[SEPP Comment: Doubtful, even the nearest trillion pounds can be measured. Will they try grams next – really big numbers?]
L.A. Times climate science denial article instead shows the Times clearly denying well established climate science
By Guest Blogger, WUWT, Sep 19, 2016
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Deniers club: Meet the people clouding the climate change debate
They’ve stalled action with a campaign of deliberate misinformation.
By Michael Mann and Tom Toles, The Washington Post, Sep 16, 2016
“He [Singer] has received considerable funding from corporate interests, including tobacco company Philip Morris, seed and pesticide company Monsanto and energy company Texaco.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
UNESCO: We Must Redesign Global Literacy Programmes to Incorporate our Climate Propaganda
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 18, 2016
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change
By Staff Writers, National Intelligence Council, Aug 10, 2016 [H/t Cooler Heads]
Questioning European Green
Alarm… Major German Grid Operator Announces Whopping 80% Higher Grid Fees! “Power To Be More Expensive”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 23, 2016
More Headaches Than Power: Germany’s Wind Energy Fails To Deliver! “Energiewende Finished?”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 18, 2016
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
China clean energy generators face $9 bln subsidy shortfall -official
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Sep 14, 2016 [H/t GWPF]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Top EPA Official Admitted His Yahoo Email Was A ‘Channel’ For ‘Offline Chats’ With Environmentalists
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Sep 20, 2016
Link to report: Ex Parte Communications & Outsourcing EPA’S “Agency Expertise”: The Case for Vacating EPA’s GHG Rules Due To an Incomplete Docket & Abandonment of any “Deference” Based on a Presumption of Expertise or Impartialty.
By Christopher Horner, E&E Legal Institute, Sep 20 2016
Energy Issues – Non-US
Powering Countries, Empowering People: A Case Study (Part 3 of 3)
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Sep 22, 2016
Killing the Energy Goose
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 17, 2016
Emissions reductions and world energy demand growth
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Sep 21, 2016
[SEPP Comment: A global permanent depression?]
Russia bases economic forecast on $40 oil
A modest growth trajectory for next year lowered by almost a full percentage point.
By Daniel J. Graeber, UPI, Sep 16, 2016
Link to press release: The Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate from 10.50 to 10.00% p.a
By Staff Writers, Bank of Russia, Sep 16, 2016
“This forecast is based on the conservative assumptions of sluggish growth in global economy, average annual oil price staying around $40 per barrel and persistent structural constraints for the Russian economic development.”
Coupon-Clipping Saudi Style
By Editors, Real Clear Energy, Sep 23, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Is this why the Democratic Party officially opposes hydraulic fracturing, which brought down the price of oil?]
Canadian First Nations, U.S. tribes form alliance to stop oil pipelines
Agreement signed in Montreal, Vancouver on Thursday
By Staff Writers, Thomson Reuters, Sep 22, 2016
Energy Issues — US
An Imminent Threat For Oil Prices? DUC Count: 5031 And Counting
By Staff Writers, Oil Price.com, Sep 16, 2016
[SEPP Comment: Drilled, uncompleted wells (DUC) in the US declining very slowly since February 2016 (except for the Permian basin where drilling continues)]
Is The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Necessary?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 20, 2016
Washington’s Control of Energy
Appeals court freezes construction in contested area
By Ellen M. Gilmer, E&E reporter, Sep 16, 2016
[SEPP Comment: The 20-mile envelope where construction was banned includes a “potential grave area.”]
Obama Administration Violates Judicial Independence in Dakota Pipeline Case
By William Yeatman, CEI, Sep 20, 2016
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Scotland To Receive First Shipment Of Gas From [US] Fracking
By Zainab Calcuttawala, Oil Price.com, Sep 22, 2016
Return of King Coal?
China and Japan, Two Asian Economic Powerhouses, are Still Building Coal Plants
By Staff Writers, IER, Sep 20, 2016
China’s Major Coal Producers Start Raising Output: Media
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Sep 21, 2016 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: The administration may pretend it is not occurring, but readers of the Jakarta Globe know better.]
First Balkans private power plant boosts coal dependence
By Maja Zuvela, Reuters, Sep 20, 2016
[SEPP Comment: To be financed and built by Chinese organizations.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
IAEA Sees Global Nuclear Power Capacity Growing Through 2030
Press Release, IAEA, Sep 23, 2016
Link to report: Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050
By Staff Writers, IAEA, 2016
Hinkley Point Set To Cost £48.9 Billion In Subsidies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 21, 2016
Let’s ditch Hinkley Point and HS2 to get more bang for our bucks
By Liam Halligan, Telegraph, UK, Sep 17, 2016
[SEPP Comment: HS2 is the proposed high-speed rail in the UK.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Apple’s secret solar plant in Arizona could power 12,500 homes
By Ryan Randazzo, Arizona Republic, Sep 21, 2016
“The Bonnybrooke solar plant has a capacity of 50 megawatts. That amount of capacity could supply about 12,500 homes at once, when the sun is shining on the solar panels.” – and overhead.
[SEPP Comment: Secret deals with the local politicians? Allocation of electricity during the two rainy seasons will be interesting. Diesel back-up?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
US hydropower: the potential for converting non-powered dams
By Staff Writers, Power Technology, Sep 20, 2016
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
UK government cuts electric car subsidies by half, sales mysteriously fall 75%
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 22, 2016
[SEPP Comment: The US could eliminate direct oil and gas “subsidies” with little impact. What would happen with the elimination of solar and wind subsidies and mandates?]
The Carbon Capture and Storage saga
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Sep 19, 2016
Did a California Utility Cook Data?
By Editors, Real Clear Energy, Sep 20, 2016
Health, Energy, and Climate
Nothing to see here: Southeast Asia flummoxed by haze study
By Stephen Wright, AP, Sep 21, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Green Bullies’ Distortions Are Putting Businesses In The Red: A Call For Accountability
By Steve Forbes, IBD, Sep 16, 2016
Other Scientific News
Academic Absurdity of the Week: Fake Peer Reviews
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Sep 22, 2016
The Inevitable Evolution of Bad Science
A simulation shows how the incentives of modern academia naturally select for weaker and less reliable results.
By Ed Young, The Atlantic, Sep 21, 2016
Link to paper: The natural selection of bad science
By Paul E. Smaldino, Richard McElreath, Royal Society Open Science, Sep 21, 2016
Other News that May Be of Interest
Scientists published climate research under fake names. Then they were caught.
By Ben Guarino, Washington Post, Sep 19, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Study: Largest marine species most likely to be wiped out by humans
By Brooks Hays, Palo Alto, Calif. (UPI), Sep 14, 2016
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Sep 20, 2016
As the heat increases, our lakes and rivers will dry up to a great extent, and will contain hardly any water except during the rainy season, when they will be temporarily swelled to enormous proportions.
We shall have earthquakes of great size and strength, and hitherto peaceful mountains, finding that they’re in tropical regions, will break out as volcanoes….
The heat will be so great that, except in the extreme northern and southern parts of the continent, the people of the United States will lose their energy and become as lazy and listless as are now the people of Panama.
They will spend their time lying in hammocks and will take little interest in politics, although from time to time they may arouse theselves sufficiently to indulge in a brief revolution after the present South American pattern.
1. Ports Can Cut Diesel-Engine Emissions by Replacing Equipment, EPA Report Says
New research also backs improvements in cargo-handling operations
By Erica Phillips, WSJ, Sep 22, 2016
[SEPP Comment: No link to study]
SUMMARY: According to the report the air around major ports can be improved by replacing diesel engines older than 10 years with new ones that give off less particle-matter emissions. Other than fewer particles health benefits are not clear.
2. SEC Probes Exxon Over Accounting for Climate Change
Probe also examines company’s practice of not writing down the value of oil and gas reserves
By Bradley Olson and Aruna Viswanatha, WSJ, Sep 20, 2016
SUMMARY: “The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating how Exxon Mobil Corp. values its assets in a world of increasing climate-change regulations, a probe that could have far-reaching consequences for the oil and gas industry.
“The SEC sought information and documents in August from Exxon and the company’s auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, according to people familiar with the matter. The federal agency has been receiving documents the company submitted as part of a continuing probe into similar issues begun last year by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, the people said.
“The SEC’s probe is homing in on how Exxon calculates the impact to its business from the world’s mounting response to climate change, including what figures the company uses to account for the future costs of complying with regulations to curb greenhouse gases as it evaluates the economic viability of its projects.
“The decision to step into an Exxon investigation and seek climate-related information represents a moment in the effort to take climate change more seriously in the financial community, said Andrew Logan, director of the oil and gas program at Ceres, a Boston-based advocacy organization that has pushed for more carbon-related disclosure from companies.”
[SEPP Comment: Does the SEC now believe that in evaluating assets, companies should take into account unresolved political issues? How about handicapping elections?]
3. Former CIA Chief Cites Grid Vulnerability to EMP Attack
A nuclear device detonated at orbit above the U.S. could take out the electric grid, said R. James Woolsey
By Kim Nash, WSJ, Sep 21, 2016
SUMMARY: “The U.S. is not doing enough to guard against attacks on critical infrastructure at the hands of rogue nations, said former Central Intelligence Agency Director R. James Woolsey at a cybersecurity conference here Wednesday.
“Combative states such as North Korea and Iran could detonate a nuclear device in orbit above the U.S., unleashing an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, capable of knocking out the electric grid, Mr. Woolsey said in an interview with CIO Journal at the Cyber Security Summit sponsored in part by Nation-E, a technology security company.
“Traditional policies of deterrence are ineffective against such “malevolent threats” because for these actors, “death is desirable rather than shunned,” said Mr. Woolsey, who served as CIA director for two years during the Clinton Administration.
“Electricity companies and the Obama Administration “haven’t done much” to counter such threats, he said, in part because there is no clear remedy and experiments could be expensive and ineffective.”
This may become a campaign issue, because Mr Woolsey signed on to the Trump campaign.