Of all the oil majors, Shell prides itself on undertaking cutting edge energy forecasting, that not only inform the group’s thinking but also dove-tail into policy making by decision makers across the energy spectrum.
It is one of the few companies to get out its crystal-ball and try and predict what the energy future will look like. And its forecasting is taken seriously.
In its latest energy scenarios Shell argues “Never before has humanity faced such a challenging outlook for energy and the planet. This can be summed up in five words: ‘more energy, less carbon dioxide’.” Indeed the company has been running greenwashing adverts depicting how it will capture CO2, just like the forecasting predicts.
The reality could hardly be more different. New groundbreaking research published by Oil Change and other environmental organisations today predicts that for Shell its future looks set to be “more energy, more CO2”. Shell, ignoring the bleak warnings predicted in its own forecasting, has chosen the most carbon intensive and climate changing path forward.
The research examined the carbon intensity of the top international oil companies, including Shell, BP, Chevron and Exxon and came to a staggering conclusion: Shell is now the most carbon intensive oil company in the world based on its total resource: these are the reserves of oil and gas that Shell one day hopes to exploit, and go beyond just booked reserves.
Shell’s intensity is set to rocket. The average carbon intensity of each barrel of oil and gas Shell produces will increase 85 per cent on today’s figure. As the carbon intensity increases so will the emissions of carbon dioxide. And so will climate chaos.
The new research measured the carbon intensity by calculating emissions per future barrel of oil produced. While all the companies are moving into higher carbon production, Shell stands out due to:
- Its reliance on Nigerian crude which is associated with huge levels of gas flaring – despite years of Shell promising to switch off the flares;
- Its promotion of liquefied natural gas which is highly energy intensive – contrary to the green adverts telling you otherwise;
- Its massive gamble on Canada’s dirty and polluting tar sands – Shell revealed to investors last year that nearly a third – 30% – of its total resources are in the dirty tar sands.
Shell is stacking up serious problems for the future for the company and for all of us. Its claims of promoting “responsible energy” need to be seriously questioned by investors because we are all heading for carbon control and constraint.
“As carbon control legislation moves forward in the US, and the world looks towards Copenhagen for action to limit climate change, Shell is going the wrong way by massively increasing the carbon intensity of its production,” argues Steve Kretzmann, Executive Director of Oil Change International, and one of the authors of the report.
UPDATE: The full report is available here.