Nevertheless, NAFTA has somewhat met its objectives, bringing U.S.-Mexico trade to $481.5 billion in 2015 and U.S.-Canada trade to $518.2 billion. This represents an increase of 255% and 63.5% respectively, according to the Mexican Embassy in Canada. While the jury goes beyond the question of whether these phenomenal increases are due exclusively to NAFTA (which they are almost certainly not), experts believe that the contract certainly helped. Since its inception, NAFTA has benefited the economy by bringing total trade between countries to more than $1 trillion. According to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Trump administration`s list “is very consistent with the president`s position on trade barriers that like protectionism. This makes NAFTA less of a free trade agreement in many ways.  The considerations expressed by the U.S. representative regarding subsidized state-owned enterprises and currency manipulation are not likely to apply in Canada and Mexico, but are intended to send a message to countries outside North America.  Jeffrey Schott of the Peterson Institute for International Economics stated that it was not possible to conclude renegotiations quickly, while alleviating all concerns on the list.  He also said that it would be difficult to do something about trade deficits.
 According to the authorities of these countries, there are no trade barriers for Mexican or Canadian agricultural exports to the United States. Since NAFTA, the agricultural trade balance between the United States and Mexico has alternated between a trade surplus and a trade deficit (Chart 7). Over the past five years (2012-2016), the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico has averaged $1.1 billion per year, taking into account changes in trade surpluses and deficits. The deficit has increased more sharply in recent years, with overall U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico continuing to increase, while U.S. exports to Mexico have declined. Prior to 2015, agricultural trade between the United States and Mexico was still in surplus in the United States. On January 29, 2020, President Donald Trump signed the agreement between the United States, Mexico-Canada. Canada has not yet adopted it in its parliamentary body until January 2020. Mexico was the first country to ratify the agreement in 2019.
Reactions from some U.S. agricultural leaders have been strong. According to the National Pork Producers Council, the exit from NAFTA could be “catastrophic” and “financially devastating” for U.S. hog producers.75 The National Corn Growers Association said that “the withdrawal from NAFTA would be disastrous for U.S. agriculture” and disrupt trade with major trading partners in the sector. The American Soybean Association said the withdrawal from NAFTA was a “terrible idea” and would hinder the continued recovery in nafta.76 The U.S. Grains Council noted that a withdrawal would have a “direct impact on sales in Mexico.” 77 The Wheat Growers National Association said 78 fruit and vegetable producers also did not support NAFTA exit and highlighted the benefit of exports to Mexico.79 While there is much discussion about the long-term benefits of NAFTA, the agreement has achieved several results since its implementation in the 1990s. Additional general settlement of disputes is provided under NAFTA Chapter 20. The NAFTA secretariat is responsible for managing the dispute resolution process in both chapters 19 and 20. Previous conflicts and decisions involving the NAFTA secretariat concern refined sugars, sugar beet and HFCS;20 conifer wood;21 wheat;22 apples; beef, pork products and poultry products; 23 Other types of U.S. disputes
Tuesday, April 13th, 2021
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