New sunspot 1302 has already produced two X-flares(X1.4 on Sept. 22nd and X1.9 on Sept. 24th), can another be far behind? NOAA forecasters put the 24-hour probability at 20%. The sheer size of the active region suggests the odds might be even higher than that:
Each of the dark cores in this snapshot from the Solar Dynamics Observatory is larger than Earth, and the entire active region stretches more than 100,000 km from end to end. The sunspot’s magnetic field is crackling with sub-X-class flares that could grow into a larger eruption as the sunspot continues to turn toward Earth.
Here’s some interesting images, graphs, and movies of the flare. Of particular interest is the forecast animation which suggests Earth might get glanced by a large Coronal Mass Ejection on September 26th.
This animated forecast track suggests Earth might get hit by a good sized CME on September 26th(click image if it does not animate). Note the center panel of the animation:
Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Sept. 26 at 14:10 UT (+/- 7 hours). Fortunately the bulk of this would be directed away from Earth, but the massive sunspot group can still produce more flares and CME’s as it rotates. It will be an interesting week of spaceweather
From the WUWT Solar page: