What will the climate be like
in the next 100,000 years?
Talk to the Royal Meteorological Society, 19th January, 2000
Why we need to know
What we need to knowTo calculate possible doses incurred by future generations requires modelling of groundwater transport of radionuclides and subsequent likely consumption rates of contaminated food. For this the data required includes:
Scenarios to consider
Between the scenarios the precipitation and sea level change, altering the groundwater flow and thus the time taken for contaminant to reach the surface, and the location where it reaches the biosphere.
How the future has been estimated
Figure 3.8 from: Berger A. and Loutre M. F., 1997 . Climate modelling : the LLN 2-D climate model. In : Glaciation and Hydrogeology. Proceedings of the workshop on the impact of climatic change and glaciarion on rock stresses, groundwater flow and hydrochemistry. Past, present and future. King-Clayton L., Ericsson L.O., Kautsky F. (Eds), SKI, NKS, SKB, Stockholm, 16-19.
The Figure is Berger et al's LLN 2D climate model of Northern Hemisphere ice volumes of the last 200 000 years and 130 000 years into the future based on the natural CO2 concentration of Jouzel et al (1993) and a present day Greenland ice sheet compared to three alternative scenarios: (i) the Greenland ice sheet is assumed to be totally melted but the natural CO2 concentration is used (dotted line); (ii) starting with the present day Greenland ice sheet, but with a high level C02 scenario (IPCC S75, dashed line); (iii) starting with the present day Greenland ice sheet, but with a low level C02 scenario (IPCC S55, longer dashed line). From Berger, Loutre & Gallee (1996).
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