SAN ANGELO, Texas - It began quietly last fall and was briefly eclipsed by one of the most severe winters the region has seen in nearly three decades.
But by springtime — when devastating wildfires scorched hundreds of thousands of acres in West Texas — and then summer — the region's and state's hottest on record — it was evident Texas was in the grip of a devastating drought.
The period since October 2010 has been the driest 15-month stretch in recorded state history, said State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.
At the end of the brutal summer, a global drought monitor map produced by the University College London's department of space and climate physics showed Texas was at the epicenter of the largest, most exceptional drought in the world.
"The most intense period of the drought was in the summer when temperatures were extremely high and we broke our previous summer temperature record," Nielsen-Gammon said.
As a result, many Texas ranchers have sold all or much of their herds. Crops have failed or been severely diminished. An August analysis by economists at the Texas AgriLife Extension Service said the drought has resulted in a record $5.2 billion in agricultural losses.
Tiny towns such as Robert Lee in West Texas and Groesbeck in Central Texas received national media attention as they came ever closer to running out of water.
More than 20 percent of the state's water suppliers had imposed some type of mandatory watering restrictions by summer's end, including the city of San Angelo, which — like many West Texas cities — is completely dependent on surface water supplies and has watched the level of its lakes decline quickly and drastically.
In June the San Angelo City Council enacted the city's drought contingency plan, a three-tiered emergency water conservation measure that kicks in when the city has less than 24 months of water on hand in its six surface supplies.
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM?
For now, the drought has gone on a winter hiatus.
Temperatures have cooled, slowing the evaporation rate of reservoirs. Some rain has come, although still not enough to result in significant runoff.
The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, which is updated weekly, shows that more than 20 percent of the state is in an exceptional drought — down from more than 80 percent in early fall. But more than half the state is still in a severe or extreme drought — the next two categories below "exceptional."
But the chances the state will get enough rainfall in 2012 to break the drought, or to "make up for the 18 inches of rain we lost this year," don't look promising, Nielsen-Gammon said.
Because of the return of La Niña, a periodic weather pattern that causes unusually dry winters in Texas and was present last winter, Nielsen-Gammon said the possibility of significant rainfall is slim. Therefore it's highly likely much of the state will be in drought — some of it exceptional — by next summer, he said.
"The outlook for the rest of the winter and spring, it's likely that Texas will be drier than normal and warmer than normal, so that's not good," Nielsen-Gammon said.
Water supplies likely will improve between now and then "because there's so little evaporation that takes place, so we'll probably see an increase in reservoir levels and aquifer levels," he said.
However, Nielsen-Gammon said neither aquifers nor reservoirs will "recharge fully before the summer comes around, so drought conditions are expected to get worse in the summer as water use increases and evaporation increases at the same time."
After that, he said, there's a 50 percent chance La Niña could return for a third year.
"Four years out of five, La Niña produces a drier than normal winter in Texas," Nielsen-Gammon said. "Historically there's about a 50 percent chance of La Niña returning for a third year and a 50 percent chance of not, so hopefully this drought will only be a two-year drought, but there's no guarantee of that."
PLANNING FOR A WORST-CASE SCENARIO
Because of the grim drought forecast, Nielsen-Gammon said now is the time to plan for the worst.
"This is the time to be making plans to figure out how much water use needs to be cut back to ensure adequate supplies through at least the second year of drought," he said.
And that's exactly what many West Texas municipalities are doing — if ever so quietly.
Several cities, including San Angelo, are beginning to look at how to secure short-term emergency water sources to get through the next year or two in case the drought drags on and wreaks further havoc on the region's lakes.
If West Central Texas hasn't received a sizable amount of rain by early next fall, San Angelo's two main drinking water supplies, O.H. Ivie and Twin Buttes reservoirs, will be nearly dry.
By then the city will be preparing to release water from Lake Nasworthy so residents have enough water to drink, bathe and cook. All outdoor water use would be banned while a 60-mile pipeline being laid to a Hickory Aquifer well field in McCulloch County will still be almost eight months from completion.
"Short-term, the concern is, 'Will there be a gap between the time we run out of surface water and the time the Hickory Aquifer pipeline comes online?' " said Paul Alexander, a San Angelo City Council member.
Even when the Hickory water is available, the city will be entitled to only 6 million gallons per day — less than half its average daily consumption of 14 million gallons.
The city has "banked" about 30,000 acre-feet of water since its Hickory permit was finalized in 1996, and it should be able to draw more than its maximum. That, however, will require negotiations with the Hickory Aquifer Underground Water Conservation District No. 1, which manages the aquifer.
"We would need to negotiate with the Hickory Aquifer Water District and say, 'We're in dire straits, so we need to take more than 6,700 acre-feet,' " said San Angelo Mayor Alvin New.
One acre-foot is 325,851 gallons — about what three Texas households would use in an average year.
The Colorado River Municipal Water District, which owns and manages Ivie and two other area lakes (including the nearly dry E.V. Spence in Robert Lee), is dredging the pumps at Ivie to ensure every last drop can be sucked out.
San Angelo City Manager Harold Dominguez said drought conditions have posed an added stress level as it has forced the city to drive up the pace to ensure it is staying ahead of the situation.
"We know the situation we're in, and we're watching everything very closely to make sure that as we're moving through, we have all the plans that are necessary in place for us to handle the different issues," Dominguez said. "We're watching it very closely just like everyone else is."
Expressing confidence that the city will be able to get through a worst-case scenario, as well as citing a budding partnership with Midland and Abilene to look for longer-term sources of water, New says the drought has been, in an odd way, "a blessing."
"It has allowed collaboration amongst cities," said the mayor, who invited officials from Midland and Abilene to talk about a possible alliance about 16 months ago.
"I don't know if Midland and Abilene and San Angelo would have locked arms toward 'How do we take care of our cities and some surrounding areas for the next 50 years or the next 100 years?' if you didn't have this thing hanging over your head that we might run out of water. People, for whatever reason, we react best when we really have to react, so I think that's a really positive thing."
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