MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 16th MAY 2000
Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for Winter (June to August) 2000
Warmer than average days more likely in the south
The seasonal temperature outlook for winter shows that, the southern half of Australia has about a 60 to 70% chance of above average seasonal maximum temperatures (see first map below). In the north however, the probabilities are of the order of 35 to 45%, or in other words the chances of a cooler than normal season are around 55 to 65%.
The outlook system has moderate skill or reliability in most parts of the country for the winter season, with even higher reliability over southern Queensland and northern N.S.W.
The outlook for winter seasonal minimum temperatures is shown in the second map below. It shows that probabilities for above average overnight temperatures are close to 50% in most areas. The few exceptions are in southern Queensland and northern N.S.W. where there is an increased chance (55 to 60%), and in parts of northern and southwest Australia where the chances are reduced (40 to 45%).
For winter, seasonal minimum temperature forecasts are most reliable in southern W.A., Queensland and northern N.S.W.
For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:
Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527