Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000 AXNT20 KNHC 261122 TWDATTropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 722 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES......GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...The current synoptic analysis consists of: a dissipating cold front from 31N37W to 27N44W to 24N50W. A surface trough is along 26N64W to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 21N68W, and to 19N68W. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 24N to 26N between 66W and 69W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details....ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, curving to 05N12W and 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to the Equator along 25W, to 03S38W near the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong to the southeast of the line 10N14W 06N30W 06N53W....DISCUSSION......THE GULF OF MEXICO...A deep layer trough is digging through the central sections of the U.S.A. The southeasternmost part of the trough is moving through the E sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across all of the Gulf of Mexico, except near the trough that is in the NE quadrant of the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 22N northward from 90W eastward, associated with a squall line.A surface ridge passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, across central Florida, through the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N....LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...LIFR: none.IFR: KBBF and KEIR.MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KVBS, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KVQT, KSPR, KMDJ, and KDLP.LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...TEXAS: IFR inland, mixed with some MVFR, in the Lower Valley/Deep South, extending to the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains, to Victoria/Port Lavaca/Palacios, to the Houston metropolitan area and to Huntsville. LIFR from parts of the Houston metropolitan area to Beaumont/Port Arthur and Jasper. LOUISIANA: LIFR in the SW and south central coastal sections. IFR/MVFR elsewhere from Baton Rouge southward and southeastward. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR, mixed with some IFR and MVFR from Natchez southward and southeastward. ALABAMA: IFR and some MVFR from Dothan-to-Evergreen southward. FLORIDA: LIFR in Crestview, and in the NW sections of the Panama City metropolitan area. IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport....FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...An upper level trough passes through 32N76W to 23N68W. Another branch of the trough passes through the Mona Passage, eventually to SE Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 26N65W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 21N67W. The surface trough continues from the 1012 mb low pressure center, through the Mona Passage, to 16N69W. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 17N to 30N between 55W and 73W....THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...The dividing line of wind flow regimes is the 32N76W-to-SE Nicaragua upper level trough. Upper level SW wind flow covers everywhere that is to the east of the trough. Upper level NW wind flow is to the NW of the trough.Rainshowers are comparatively more possible to the east of the trough, more precisely to the east of the line from the Mona Passage to 14N75W and 09N78W. Rainshowers also are possible from 15N northward from 76W westward.The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.05 in Guadeloupe....HISPANIOLA...Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the island. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters.SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet, at 26/0300 UTC. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will be to the west of Hispaniola for about the first 24 hours. The trough will move NE into the Atlantic Ocean eventually. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a trough will be to the west of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. The trough will move eastward during day one, and it will span the island from day one into day two. Expect broad and general westerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a trough will be to the west of Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. Expect SW and W wind flow during the forecast period....THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...An upper level trough passes through 32N29W to 23N29W. A dissipating cold front is along 31N36W 27N43W 24N50W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 25W and 50W.Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 12N northward between Africa and the dissipating cold front. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 30N30W.Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the west of the 32N37W 24N50W cold front, from 28N northward from 40W westward. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 33N63W.For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine$$ MT
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