Bob Uguccioni has heard the doomsayers so often they seem as dependable as the leaves changing colors each fall.
Mostly, their gloomy predictions are about the leaves changing colors -- or not.
"Every year there is going to be this major disaster with the foliage," said Uguccioni, executive director of the Pocono Mountains Vacation Bureau for 35 years.
"Either it's drought or gypsy moths or locusts or something," he said. "And guess what? Every year it's beautiful."
There are concerns this year, though, among foresters and other experts, because many trees are already losing leaves due to the prolonged drought. On one block in Bethlehem, the yards make it look like mid-September because the sycamores are dropping so many leaves.
Allentown forester Randy Fey said the city's maples and black locusts already are losing leaves as the trees shut down to deal with the dryness.
It's a survival tactic for trees, said John Shane, chairman of the Forestry Department at the University of Vermont.
"The plant is retreating and saving itself for a better year," Shane said.
Leaves play a critical role in photosynthesis. They take in sunlight and carbon dioxide and use water to create carbohydrates that are transported through the tree to produce oxygen.
But when the leaves open their microscopic holes to take in carbon dioxide, they release water. Therefore, the shedding of leaves preserves water and helps the trees deal with the drought, Shane said.
"Trees live through a lot of transformations during their 100- to 200-year life cycle, tolerating climatic extremes," he said.
Shane said the university is looking at how fall foliage is affected by climatic conditions, soil and pollution, but the jury is still out. Much of what researchers have concluded is based on anecdotal evidence, he said.
While more study is needed, Shane said there is evidence that "intensity of the color is related to stress." Drought creates stress on a tree, causing it to begin its fall cycle earlier.
On the bright side, stress creates more intense colors. On the down side, it means those colors could come much earlier than expected, according to other experts.
"We believe that moderate stress, like a water shortage, can promote the development of the red colors," Shane said. "So, in short, a drought may promote more vivid color because we perceive the reds in foliage as more vivid than the yellows.
"But too much water stress, or any other kind of stress, seems to promote leaf wilting and loss with the colors of brown resulting. The real questions is how much stress does what? We really don't know."
Either way, tourism officials such as Uguccioni and Amy Strack, spokeswoman for the Massachusetts Office of Travel and Tourism, say they aren't worried.
The Pocono bureau offers a fall foliage hotline for vacationers, Uguccioni said. The number is fed by state foresters, not tourism officials, so vacationers can hear the latest from the experts.
In addition, the travel bureau has live Web cameras set up throughout the region so travelers can see actual scenery.
"Not being a scientist or forester, the conditions that make the leaves change are highly debatable," Uguccioni said. "I think everyone who feels every leaf will be off the trees by October shouldn't buy any Enron stock."
Uguccioni said October, fed by foliage tours, is a critical month in the Poconos tourism year. His real fear is a major storm that would sweep away many of the remaining leaves with heavy rain and wind.
Strack said Massachusetts officials are not overly concerned about foliage this year. Leaves might be a little brown along highways because they are stressed by heat from vehicles, but the quieter roads should present their traditional palettes, she said.
However, Massachusetts geologist Linda Marler said she is growing more concerned as the summer -- and the drought -- advances.
"There's a lot of concern that our leaves are starting to shrivel up and fall off the trees already," said Marler, who works for the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Management.
Staff Writer Edgar Sandoval contributed to this story.