Arizona’s fire season will follow a familiar pattern, but other parts of the western United States could see an early, long-lasting and difficult summer when it comes to wildfires.
Those are the conclusions of the National Interagency Fire Center’s monthly fire outlook.
The report, titled “National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook,” is the first to cover the normal wildfire seasons of late spring and summer.
It looks at temperature and precipitation outlooks and drought and fuel conditions to develop the outlook.
For Arizona, the pattern will fit the norm: increasing fire danger as temperatures rise in the late spring and early summer, followed by a return to normal conditions when the monsoon arrives, bringing higher humidity and rainfall.
Southeastern Arizona will be most prone to fires this month, the outlook indicates, and the rest of the state will catch up in June.
Mary Zabinski, spokeswoman for the Southwest Area Coordination Center, said fire activity has been scattered so far this year, and most fires have been controlled and extinguished quickly.
Fire restrictions have begun to be posted throughout the state. Phoenix began its annual ban on open fires in its mountain and desert reserves on Monday. Tonto National Forest, northeast of the Valley, and Prescott National Forest will institute restrictions on Wednesday, and Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, covering most of the White Mountains in eastern Arizona, will do so on Thursday.
The national-forest restrictions prohibit all campfires except in designated campgrounds, outdoor smoking, fireworks and several types of equipment. The also ban shooting except while hunting.
Last year’s Sunflower Fire, caused by target shooting, burned almost 20,000 acres and cost $5.7 million to extinguish.
Violation of fire restrictions is punishable by a fine of up to $5,000 and/or imprisonment for up to six months.
Officials point to drought conditions, limited growth of “fine herbaceous fuels” like grasses, and below-normal rain and snow for the winter and spring as factors in the fire season.
“Potential exists for a significant fire season with drought and other factors, but whether or not conditions will support sustained periods of activity is still uncertain,” the outlook says.
The areas under the most significant threat of wildfire throughout the summer are in California and Oregon, expanding into Washington, Idaho and Nevada as the season continues.
Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation over the winter and throughout the spring are expected to contribute to earlier-than-normal wildfire conditions in those states.
Colorado, site of last year’s most devastating fires, and Utah, will see increased wildfire threat in the southern portions of those states in June, but it will diminish in July and August, the report said.