Extreme weather events can severely disrupt the energy sector, which is increasingly relying on renewable sources such as wind and solar power. Energy production is therefore more sensitive to weather and changes in climate. Accurate modelling and energy-relevant indicators of climate patterns are indispensable to the sector.
Since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2016, the need to switch to renewable energy sources has been well embedded in government policy. This rapid transition also means energy production is more sensitive to weather and changes in climate. Energy producers must therefore be able to anticipate the supply of resources, their variability at seasonal timescales and their trends over decades.
“The ability to predict wind droughts months in advance is vital for the energy industry,” says Carlo Buontempo, Sectoral Information System Manager for the ECMWF-run Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). “We also need to predict how the energy mix can meet future demand, while taking into consideration that the patterns of both renewable production and energy demand are likely to change in response to climate change.”
Wind power accounted for 6.3 percent of total electricity generation in the U.S. last year. All renewable energy sources – including hydropower, biofuels, solar and geothermal power – made up 17 percent of total output, compared with almost 63 percent for fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the European Union aims to increase the renewable share of its energy mix from 17 percent in 2015 to 34 percent in 2030.
C3S has been working to make its climate data more accessible to industry and public-sector user communities. After the release of the two proof-of-concept projects in January, C3S is now preparing to enter the operational phase of the follow-up services with regular updates to allow historical records to be maintained as new events occur.
One of the two demonstrator projects, called the European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM), was led by the University of East Anglia (UEA). It will enable the energy industry and policy makers to assess how well energy supply will meet demand in Europe over different time horizons, focusing on the role that climate has on energy supply and demand. The comprehensive maps and time-series plots available in the demonstrator are easily modified to the user's needs and freely downloadable.
“Our approach was to give a pan-European perspective and create a full dataset for our users,” says Alberto Troccoli, the UEA team leader for the two-year contract. “A lot of effort has gone into collecting both climate and energy data, and also to correct climate data. We have created a strong community in the process.”
The other energy demonstrator, called CLIM4ENERGY, was led by the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA). It delivered nine energy-relevant pan-European indicators of climate trends and variability with cross-sectoral consistency, documentation and guidance, estimation of uncertainties, and demonstration of use. The visualisation tool developed as part of the contract will allow users to look at simple statistics on climate variables and energy indicators. Advanced data sets can be synthesised and downloaded in an easy and accessible way for all.
“Our demonstrator also looked at specific regional effects that may have an impact on particular applications, such as the effect of climate change on freezing rain or hydropower plant inflows,” says Robert Vautard, team leader at CEA for the C3S contract.
The energy demonstrators were among seven proof-of-concept projects commissioned in 2016 in order to ensure that C3S meets the needs of its users in different sectors, such as water, energy, insurance, agriculture, infrastructure and health care.
The existing data is currently available on the demonstrator portals and will gradually migrate to the Copernicus Climate Data Store before the operational service begins in a few months. All data will be free of charge and openly accessible to users.