Louisiana's speckled trout population has fallen below the level that for years has been used as the conservation standard, according to information provided to NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife & Fisheries.
Responding to a list of emailed questions, saltwater fisheries biologist Harry Blanchet said spawning potential ratio of speckled trout was between 8 and 14 percent the last time it was calculated in 2011.
Even at the high end of the estimate, spawning potential ratio is still well below the previously established conservation standard of 18 percent.
Spawning potential ratio, or SPR, is a number that represents the percentage of biomass for adult members of a particular fish species compared to what would exist in a completely virgin fishery. In this case, department biologists estimate Louisiana has 8 to 14 percent of the mature speckled-trout biomass it would have if the fish were completely off-limits to humans.
In general, when SPR falls below a certain threshold, that particular fishery is unable to sustain itself.
Retired LSU fisheries professor Jerald Horst said we're not necessarily there with speckled trout.
"The truth is that any of these standards are best guesses," he said. "But the number is clearly below the conservation standard of 18."
Horst said that overfishing usually first manifests itself in a smaller number of bigger fish being caught.
"Generally speaking, you'll see fewer big fish at first," he said. "It takes four years to grow a big (speckled trout). If we're cropping more fish at a smaller size, then obviously fewer of them will have the chance to get big."
Chas Champagne believes we may be at the point. The owner of Dockside Bait & Tackle in Slidell has seen a significant decline in the size of fish that cross over his gunwale while fishing the bridges in eastern Lake Pontchartrain.
"From 2000 to 2003, just in the fall, I probably caught 50 6-plus-pound speckled trout," he said. "If you had a calm day, you could go and make a couple hundred casts and almost guarantee a 4-pound trout or better. Now, if you catch a 3-pounder, you start taking pictures.
"I took it for granted. I was 15 to 17 years old. I just figured that's how it would be forever."
Farther to the south, former STAR winner Ed Sexton says there are far fewer big trout in the Venice area than a decade ago.
"I have fished for trout for 15 years, and it's definitely declined from when I first started," he said. "Last year, I caught one trout that was 7 pounds. I can remember 10 years ago, almost every trip when the fishing was good, if you didn't catch a 6- or 7-pound trout, that was unusual."
But Horst said it's impossible to peg the decline on overfishing. Many variables, including weather and river levels, have a tremendous impact on speckled trout reproduction, he said.
Still, it's undeniable that the SPR is falling. Horst said Wildlife & Fisheries has pointed to episodic events in the past to explain away numbers that are below the conservation standard.
"But now the average SPR is below the standard, so now we either have to come up with a different reason or change the standard," he said.
Changing a minimum conservation standard isn't unheard of in science. In fact, it should be part of the norm, Horst said, as better testing methods are developed and more information is gathered.
"There is no clear-cut standard that is 100-percent right all the time," Horst said. "If we treat these numbers as iron-clad standards, that's how we end up with a situation like we have with red snapper. We've got red snapper coming out of our ears. We're gagging on them, but we have a 27-day season."
In his emailed response, Blanchet said Louisiana's SPR estimates are in line with those of Mississippi (6-13 percent) and North Carolina (4-15 percent).
But Horst said, if we are overfishing speckled trout, it isn't any wonder as to why. An avid trout fisherman himself, Horst said anglers have gotten remarkably more efficient at targeting and harvesting trout.
"Without a doubt, fishing pressure is higher," he said. "Not just in numbers of people but in equipment. We have everything from Power-Poles to graphite rods to braided lines to depth finders. It's really something.
"When commercial fishermen went from nylon to monofilament gill nets, it really alarmed all sport fishermen, but it was not one-tenth of the increase in effectiveness that recreational fishing has had in the last four decades."
If the department determines that speckled trout are, in fact, overfished, any changes in regulation will have to be severe, Horst said.
"When the time finally comes that we do reduce creel limits, it won't be to 15. That's not enough," Horst said. "The result would be too small."
That's borne out in numbers Blanchet supplied. According to LDWF research data, 66 percent of anglers catch five or fewer speckled trout per trip, 3 percent catch 10 per trip, 2 percent catch 15 per trip and 4 percent catch 25 per trip.
"Dropping the limit to six would only impact 34 percent of the fishermen," Horst said. "Anglers need to be ready because if the regulation ever changes, it could be a five-, six- or seven-fish limit. You've got to have an impact if you're going to make the change."
Currently, Southwest Louisiana is under a special management regime for speckled trout. Anglers there may harvest only 15 fish per day with no more than two measuring in excess of 25 inches.
That regulation has had very little impact on the fishery there, as the department predicted.
"Our analyses indicated that the results of those regulations would be a small (about 10 percent) change in the harvest, less in stock size," Blanchet wrote.
The measure was pushed by local anglers and implemented by the Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Commission. It was not proposed or supported by department biologists.
Horst said at some point, Louisiana will have to change its speckled trout regulations, but he wouldn't venture a guess as to when. Will it be sometime in the next 10 years?
"I don't know," he said. "If the price of gas goes to $17 a gallon, then the answer's no. If our marsh decline causes the fishery to collapse, then the answer's yes. But I've been hearing we're right on the verge of that for 30 years."