There is a curious disconnect in climate change discourse, between explanations of the causes of global climate change (GCC) and discussions of possible solutions. On the one hand, it is widely acknowledged that the primary causes of climate change are unremitting economic and demographic growth. As the Fourth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) succinctly puts it: “GDP/per capita and population growth were the main drivers of the increase in global emissions during the last three decades of the 20th century … At the global scale, declining carbon and energy intensities have been unable to offset income effects and population growth and, consequently, carbon emissions have risen.” On the other hand, most proposals for climate change mitigation take growth for granted and focus on technical means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate scientists speak of the “Kaya identity”: the four primary factors which determine overall greenhouse gas emissions. They are economic growth/per capita, population, energy used to generate each unit of GDP, and greenhouse gases generated per unit of energy. Over the past three and a half decades, improvements in energy and carbon efficiency have been overwhelmed by increases in population and wealth.