They found that intervention in form of school and business closures had a significant impact in reducing new cases, buying vital time for health systems to process the spike in cases.
The team also predicted the impact of lifting control measures. Their models suggested that waiting until April to lift social distancing would reduce total infections by a quarter.
It would also delay a second peak of the virus from August to October, again buying health workers vital time.
“The unprecedented measures the city of Wuhan has put in place to reduce social contacts in school and the workplace have helped to control the outbreak,” said lead author Kiesha Prem from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
“However, the city now needs to be really careful to avoid prematurely lifting physical distancing measures, because that could lead to an earlier secondary peak in cases. But if they relax the restrictions gradually, this is likely to both delay and flatten the peak.”
Commenting on the research, James Gill, honorary clinical lecturer at Warwick Medical School, said it had “profound” implications for countries seeking to learn lessons from the Chinese COVID-19 response.
He said the study showed the “sought-after ‘flattening of the curve’, along with the reduction of total cumulative infections, whilst also demonstrating a delay in the peak of the outbreak by two months.”