Home' Ships and Shipping : June 2011 Contents This excerpt is the first part of a longer article which will be
completed in successive issues.
The age of cheap energy is over.
This undoubtedly presents huge challenges, but it also opens up
huge opportunities for engineers and scientists. The use of oil as a
dependable and secure long-term option looks ever more
improbable as the world's supplies are rocked by political and price
instability. Predicted global energy demand growth of 40 percent
by 2030 points towards a future scramble for supplies. And the
environmental picture prevails ever stronger. Those who ignore the
changes face becoming like "the best horse-whip manufacturer in
town just as they invented the motor car".
Questions over Renewable Energy are inevitably linked to
political will and the cost and availability of carbon based
alternatives. But renewable technology has moved on and some of
it might be closer to hand than we imagine. Nature has provided
engineers with technical solutions to many of today's challenges,
opening up a new field called "bio mimicry". The world's oceans
contain over 5,000 times current global energy demand. Wind and
solar power are important but "Maritime Renewable Energy" will
inevitably play its part too. What are the options available?
Oil and Democracy
The seething discontent that has surfaced in the Middle East and
North Africa is a portent of tectonic changes to come. Many oil
supplying states are governed by old men enforcing often brutal and
usually autocratic rule. The deals under which oil is supplied will likely
bear little detailed future and open scrutiny. The West lauds political
emancipation. But it is "hoist with its own petard". Pluralistic
democracy and free speech are poor bedfellows with shadowy deals.
Other shifts have occurred that serve to change the picture further.
Current unrest makes guaranteed oil
supplies increasingly uncertain.
Less than two decades ago, 70 percent of the world's oil supplies
were under the operational control of the world's major oil
companies. Today, this position is reversed. 70 percent of world oil
is now controlled by governments, many of whom are facing
actual or potential civil unrest. Most oil companies have already
passed their point of peak production and we can wonder at what
might be their long-term business models.
There is probably more oil left in the ground today than that
used in the history of man. But what remains is far less
accessible than that used and much is to be found in deep water
or under ice. This means that the cost of extraction multiplies.
The recent "Deepwater Horizon" disaster in the Gulf of Mexico
did more than expose an uncomfortably close relationship
between the United States Government, its safety regulators and
the oil industry. It generated raw anger amongst the voting
public that will have most politicians thinking twice about
supporting exploration in environmentally sensitive areas.
Increasingly vocal opinion and toughening legislation point
towards additional costs of compliance.
Within the last three to four years, we have witnessed the
development of horizontal drilling techniques. Drilling into
Barnett shale deposits, small explosions are used to crack the rocks
and release plentiful natural gas.
Traditionally, gas prices have been linked to oil. But any
significant growth in global economic activity or other upward
pressure on oil prices will likely see the gas price decouple.
Relatively cheap, abundant and "clean" gas (it produces roughly
half the CO2 of oil) could replace expensive and "dirty" oil as the
transportation fuel of choice. It is already making big inroads into
oil-fired power plants.
Meeting the demand for global energy
Some estimates predict global energy demand will rise from
current levels around 25 Terawatt hours (TWh = 1012 Watt hours)
up to 40TWh. Meeting this demand without producing
devastating levels of environmental pollution present huge
challenges. In February, China's Environment Minister, Zhou
Shengxian warned that pollution and the demand for energy and
other resources "threaten to choke China's economic growth" and
Premier Wen Jiabao said China was lowering its annual economic
growth target from 7.5 percent to seven percent, in part because of
its impact on the environment.
The holy grail of nuclear fusion (the energy that powers the
sun) is still some way off. So the intermediate solution will
comprise a mosaic of technology. Current renewable technology,
whilst offering good environmental credentials, is mostly too small
the meet the requirements of the grid. And the wild weather
conditions that favour renewable generation tend to be remote
from the population demand. Power distribution technology has
still not caught up with generation.
The only sensible, clean and capable solution today for
significant grid power generation lies with Uranium 235 and
nuclear fission. Public perception and misconception surrounding
nuclear technology is politically charged and emotional. In truth,
atomic bombs and nuclear power are as closely related as a
tsunami is to a glass of water. The French have been generating 80
percent of their power needs and exporting more over decades,
without incident. The recent disaster at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi
nuclear plant is undoubtedly of concern. But it clouds the real
issues as the factual is held hostage to the sensational. Nuclear
power remains fundamentally safe and clean.
Renewable power is traditionally land-based, including
photovoltaic generation (solar cells) and wind turbines. The
challenge has always been the trade off with arable land for solar
farms and the aesthetic and acoustic pollution of large wind
turbines. Both have also offered relatively low levels of power
output; good for supplying small communities, but not good for
long distance grid generation. This is changing and the new
generation of offshore devices hold out the promise of large-scale,
renewable power, some of which is already in the making.
Maritime Renewable Energy
Contemporary Maritime Renewable Energy can be classified
into three categories: offshore wind turbines, tidal and current
devices and wave-powered devices. There are many variations on
these themes and the list grows longer.
Offshore wind turbines
Offshore wind farms have grown significantly in numbers in
recent years. The leaders are Europe, led by the UK, Denmark, the
Netherlands and Sweden, followed by China and the USA. Europe
had installed 10 Gigawatts (GW) capacity by 2010 and estimates
140GW by 2020. China projects to be generating just under
23GW of power from offshore wind by 2020. The USA had
achieved 11.5GW by 2010, a long way from its estimated
potential of over 1,000GW.
Offshore wind generation presents many challenges, both
technical and economic. But the single biggest is that the wind is
not reliable. Fixed blade technology service availability can drop as
low as 21 percent. Perhaps future variable geometry blades (the
way aeroplane wings achieve lift at lower speeds by increasing
surface area through flap deployment) offer some improvement.
Tidal and current devices
The gravitational effect of the moon ensures we have daily
tides and the huge flow of water that goes with them. The
The 'Deepwater Horizon' offshore drilling unit on fire in 2010, while vessels
attempt to stoush the flames. The 'Deepwater Horizon' changed the game
June 2011 SHIPS AND SHIPPING
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