Belski's Blog - How a typhoon in Japan is good news for Louisville
Updated Friday, August 16.......
Typhoon Krosa is the the third typhoon to hit Japan in 3 weeks. A typhoon is the same thing as a hurricane. They are called different things in different parts of the world.
Krosa killed two people and injured at least 50 with high winds and up to 30 inches of rain in the Hiroshima region.
OK, so what effect does a typhoon in Japan have to do with the weather in the Ohio Valley?
The western Pacific typhoon recurvature theory answers that question. If a typhoon strikes Japan or goes near Japan and then curves northeast toward the northern Pacific Ocean, then about 7 to 10 days later, the jet stream buckles over the eastern U.S. bringing below normal temperatures.
Here is the latest Krosa forecast.
The storms in the Pacific either go to the west or curve to the northwest or north. When they then turn to the northeast as Krosa has done, then it is called the recurvature.
The cooling trend for the eastern U.S. after a recurvature happens probably 80% of the time. This would put cooler air into the Ohio Valley late next week or the following weekend.
Here is the latest GFS temperature outlook for the 24th and 25th.
So there is cooling for Saturday and Monday, but not Sunday. This far out these are just general trends, but you can see the cooling. It may not be much, but even a few degrees below normal would be welcome.
Yesterday was the only day in the last 20 days in Louisville that has averaged below normal temperatures and that was only 1 degree below normal.
We'll see how this goes. It is interesting how a weather event 7,000 miles away can be an influence on our weather.