WASHINGTON — With less than one-third of the nation’s corn
and 5 percent of the soybeans planted, the U.S. Department of Agriculture
provided its first look at the new crop balance sheet.
The world agricultural supply and demand estimates report
projected corn and soybean yield increases this year, based on a weather
adjusted yield trend model and assuming normal mid-May planting progress and
summer weather. Wheat yields are projected lower.
“Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern
Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these
projections are highly tentative,” the USDA said in the report.
The corn yield is projected at 165.3 bushels per acre, up
6.5 bushels from 2013-2014.
Corn production is anticipated at 13.9 billion bushels, up
slightly from the last year’s record with higher expected yields more than
offsetting the year-to-year reduction in planted area. Production estimates are
based on the March 31 prospective plantings report.
Corn supplies for 2014-2015 marketing year are predicted at
a record 15.1 billion bushels, up 330 million from the previous year.
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2014-2015 are projected at a
record 403.3 million tons, up 2 percent from 2013-2014 mostly on larger corn
U.S. corn use for the new crop year is anticipated 2 percent
lower than in 2013-2014. The USDA projected feed and residual use of 50 million
bushels lower with animal numbers down from 2013-2014.
Exports are projected 200 million bushels lower than this
month’s higher projection for 2013-2014 as larger expected foreign supplies and
lower import demand limit U.S. shipments.
Corn used to produce ethanol in 2014-2015 is expected to be
unchanged on the year with gasoline consumption expected to remain flat in 2015.
Corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.7 billion bushels, up
580 million from the 2013-2014 projection.
With the larger carryout, the season-average farm price is
projected at $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel, down from $4.50 to $4.80 per bushel for
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014-2015 are projected at
a record 1,461 million tons, up 2 percent from 2013-2014 as the year-to-year
increase in world beginning stocks more than offsets a reduction in world
Projected global corn production for the new marketing year,
at a record 979.1 million tons, is virtually unchanged from 2013-2014.
Expected decreases for Ukraine, Brazil, India and South
Africa are mostly offset by increases for China, Argentina, Russia and Mexico.
Ukraine production is lowered 4.9 million tons from last year’s record level as
the reduced value of the local currency keeps input prices high and reduces
expected use of fertilizer and other inputs.
Global corn trade for 2014-2015 is projected lower with
imports projected down year to year for China and Mexico.
Corn exports for 2014-2015 are projected lower for Ukraine
and the U.S. World corn consumption is projected at a record 965.8 million tons,
up 17 million from 2013-2014 on higher use in China, Brazil, the European Union,
Mexico and Japan.
Global corn ending stocks for 2014-2015 are anticipated at
181.7 million tons, up 13.3 million tons on the year and at a 15-year
U.S. oilseed production for the new marketing year is
projected at 107.9 million tons, up 11 percent from 2013-2014. Higher soybean
production accounts for most of the increase.
Soybean production is anticipated at a record 3.635 billion
bushels, up 346 million from the 2013 crop on record yields and harvested area.
The USDA projects the average soybean yield at a trend level
of 45.2 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from 2013.
Soybean supplies are projected at 3.78 billion bushels, up
7.4 percent from 2013-2014 as a larger crop more than offsets lower beginning
stocks and imports.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2014-2015 is projected at 1.715
billion bushels, up 20 million from 2013-2014, mainly reflecting increased
domestic soybean meal consumption.
U.S. soybean exports are anticipated at 1.625 billion
bushels, up 25 million from 2013-2014 on record supplies and competitive prices.
Despite gains in use, ending stocks for 2014-2015 are
projected at 330 million bushels, up 200 million from the old crop year,
increasing the stocks-to-use ratio to 9.6 percent.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014-2015 is
forecast to decline to $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel compared with $13.10 per
bushel in 2013-2014.
Soybean meal prices are forecast at $355 to $395 per short
ton, compared with $485 per ton for 2013-2014. Soybean oil prices are forecast
at 37 to 41 cents per pound compared with 40 cents for 2013-2014.
New crop global oilseed production for is projected at a
record 515.2 million tons, up 2.4 percent from 2013-2014 with increased soybean
and peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed, sunflower see and
Mostly due to a larger U.S. crop, global soybean production
is projected at 299.8 million tons, up 5.6 percent.
The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 91 million
tons, up 3.5 million on small gains in area and yield. The Argentina soybean
crop is projected at 54 million tons, unchanged from 2013-2014 with lower area
offset by higher yields.
With crush projected to increase 2.4 percent, global oilseed
ending stocks are projected at 94.8 million tons, up 14.6 million.
Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.2
percent in 2014-2015. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.5
percent in China, which accounts for 30 percent of global protein consumption
Global soybean exports are estimated at 112.3 million tons,
up 1.5 percent from 2013-2014. China oil consumption is projected to increase
4.1 percent in 2014-2015 led by increases for China, India and Indonesia.
U.S. wheat supplies for the new marketing year are projected
down 10 percent from 2013-2014 with beginning stocks, production and imports all
Supplies for the new marketing year are projected to be the
lowest since 2007-2008. Production is projected at 1,963 million bushels, down 8
percent from last year.
The all wheat yield is projected at 42.7 bushels per acre,
down 4.5 bushels from the last year’s record.
The survey-based forecast for 2014-2015 all winter wheat
production is down 9 percent on the year with the harvested-to-planted ratio
just above last year’s 11-year low and the yield forecast at its lowest level
since 2007-2008. Most of the decline year to year in winter wheat reflects lower
area and yields for soft red winter wheat.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2014-2015 is projected down 11
percent year to year as feed and residual disappearance and exports are expected
to fall with tighter supplies and higher prices.
Projected feed and residual disappearance is down 50 million
bushels as abundant feed grain supplies and lower feed grain prices limit wheat
feeding during the summer months. Partly offsetting are a 10-million-bushel
increase in domestic food use and a 2-million-bushel increase in seed use.
The USDA projected 2014-2015 exports at 950 million bushels,
down 235 million from this month’s higher 2013-2014 projection, as large
supplies in other major exporting countries and tight domestic supplies of hard
red winter wheat limit U.S. shipments.
U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline for a fifth
consecutive year. At 540 million bushels, 2014-2015 ending stocks would be down
43 million from last year.
The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at
$6.65 to $7.95 per bushel.
Global 2014-205 wheat supplies are projected down less than
1 percent from 2013-2014 as reduced beginning stocks and production in the U.S.
offset higher foreign beginning stocks.
World wheat production is projected at 697 million tons,
down 2 percent from the record last year
Global wheat consumption for 2014-2015 is projected 1
percent lower than in 2013-2014 with a reduction in world wheat feeding only
partly offset by higher expected food use.
Global ending stocks for 2014-2015 are projected at 187.4
million tons, up 0.9 million from last year.