AHMEDABAD: Forecasting earthquakes, like the one that rocked Gujarat in 2001, could soon become a reality. A subterranean laboratory, that will take a closer look at reasons behind earthquakes, will be constructed at Koyna, Maharashtra, in the next 2-3 years. This lab, the first of its kind in the country, is seen as a crucial step towards predicting earthquakes.
This subterranean laboratory at Koyna, where earthquakes recur, will have earthquake measuring instruments that will be deployed about 7 km below the earth. Koyna-Warna region is a unique site in the world where the seismicity, that reportedly began after the impoundment of Koyna reservoir in 1961, has continued for over 40 years.
Since 1963, more than 100,000 earthquakes have been reported from Koyna-Warna region, states a paper that was presented at an international seminar on seismology organised by the Institute of Seismological Research (ISR) in Gandhinagar and coincides with the 10th anniversary of the earthquake that struck Kutch on January 26, 2001.
"Through this laboratory, we will be able to see what actually happens before, during and after an earthquake," says Harsh Gupta, principal investigator of the project at Hyderabadbased National Geophysical Research Institute which will be developing the laboratory with ministry of earth sciences.
"It is an important step towards better understanding of the physics of earthquake occurrence , and a possible forecast," says Gupta , who has been studying the earthquake occurrences in Koyna and forecasted earthquakes about six times.
"It is not possible to forecast earthquakes as of now. However, the region being small, we have managed to identify some precursors that happen before earthquakes," he remarked. Some of the precursory changes that can be detected are changes in water content, release of gases, and changes in ambient natural electric fields. Suitably located sensors can detect and record these changes in real time. Despite certain definite success cases, skepticism prevails, as the changes are not observed at all earthquake sites or even for different earthquakes in the same region.
"The advantage of this observatory is that unlike the Himalayan frontal fault, that runs into thousands of kilometers (where it is difficult to measure the cause and effect), there is no seismic activity within 50 km of Koyna," Gupta said. The laboratory, which is expected to come up in the next 2-3 years, will also have global participation.
The ongoing earthquake occurrences in the Koyna-Warna region, including the 6.3 magnitude quake that struck Koyna on December 1967, have been considered as reservoir-triggered earthquakes. What causes these earthquakes in such large numbers is still an enigma.