WASHINGTON – Up to a billion people could be re-announced for mosquitoes carrying disease before the end of the century as a result of global warming, which is a new study which examines temperature variations at all levels. one month in the world.
Scientists say that even in areas with limited climate risk for mosquitoes, these viruses are bad, as the viruses that they inflict are bad for explosive events when they occur in the right place. under the right conditions.
"Climate change is the biggest and most complete threat to global health security," said Colin J. Carlson, PhD, the major change in Georgetown University biology department, and co-directed author of the study. T new. "Mosquitoes are only part of the challenge, but after the Zika disruption in Brazil in 2015 we are very concerned about what is happening."
Published in the open access magazine PLOS blames tropical diseases ("The extension and redistribution of the risk of distribution of Aedes virus by climate change" t), the research team led by Sadie J. Ryan of the University of Florida and Carlson, examined what would happen if there were two mosquitoes in disease behavior – Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus– detecting and moving as temperatures change over decades.
According to the World Health Organization, mosquitoes are one of the world's deadliest animals, carrying diseases that cause millions of deaths a year. Both Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus The dengue, chikunguyna and Zika viruses may be carried, in addition to at least a dozen other diseases that may arise and researchers may be a threat in the next 50 years.
With global warming, the scientists say that almost everybody in the world could appear at some point in the next 50 years. As the temperature rises, they are expected to receive year-round transplantation of the tropics and seasonal hazards almost everywhere else. It is also thought that larger infections are found.
"These diseases, which we think are so tropical, have been spotting now in suitable climate areas, such as Florida, as people are really good at moving the bugs and global trends, "said Ryan, Florida's professor of medical geography.
"The risk of disease spread is a serious problem, even over the coming decades," said Carlson. "There will be places like Europe, North America and high heights in the tropics that were too cold for the viruses to face new diseases like dengue."
More harsh climate change would bring worse population emissions Aedes aegypti mosquito. But in areas with the worst weather conditions, including west Africa and south-east Asia, it is expected that there will be a big drop in rainfall. Aedes albopictus mosquito, especially in south-east Asia and west Africa. This mosquito carries dengue, chikunguyna and Zika.
"Understanding this is a big threat to geographical movements," said Ryan. "While we may change numbers and think we have our answer, think of a hot world for these mosquitoes."
"This may sound like good news, bad news but it's bad news if we go off in the worst timeline for climate change," said Carlson. “Any circumstances where a department is getting too hot to put out a case are very good where there are different but equally serious threats in other health departments.”
The researchers team looked at month-to-month temperatures to manage risk through 2050 and 2080. The modeling did not predict what type of mosquito would change, but instead provided an account of a behavior. There would be no restrictions on transmission.
"Based on our knowledge of mosquito movement from area to area, 50 years is very large and we expect large distribution of both insects in particular, in particular. T Aedes aegypti, who are successful in urban environments, "Carlson explains.
"This is just one study to start understanding the challenges coming to the end of global warming," said Carlson. "We have Herculean work ahead. We need to find a pathogen patrol, department by region, when problems arise so that we can plan a global health response."
As well as Ryan and Carlson, the learning authors include Erin A. Mordecai of Stanford University, and Leah R. Johnson of Virginia Polytechnic and University State.
The move has been supported by: The National Science Foundation (DEB-1518681, DEB-1641145, and DEB-1640780), Disease Control and Prevention Centers (1U01CK000510-01), East Regional Center of Excellence Program, Environmental Institute Stanford Woods, and the Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health.
The authors report that there is no conflict of financial interest in respect of the job described.
About Georgetown University
Georgetown University is one of the world's leading academic and research institutions, providing a unique educational experience that prepares the next generation of global citizens to make a difference to the world. Founded in 1789, Georgetown is the oldest Catholic and Islamic university in the country. Georgetown is now a major international research university offering undergraduate, graduate and professional honors programs in Washington, D.C., Doha, Qatar, and worldwide. For more information about Georgetown University, visit http: // georgetown.
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