The Country Scientist: Meteorologists work at accuracy
Published 12:11 pm, Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Most weather reports we read, watch or hear are prepared by men and women known as meteorologists. Considerable data collection, computer modeling and traditional analysis go into the weather forecasts they provide.
You and I make many decisions based on weather forecasts. But we also know that forecasting the weather is an imperfect science. Meteorologists are well aware of this, and the research branch of meteorology is hard at work exploring new ways to improve forecasts.
The American Meteorological Society is the world's largest organization of meteorologists, weather reporters and others interested in weather and climate.
Like most major science organizations, the AMS holds annual meetings where members present the latest results of their research.
Some meteorologists present their findings during talks accompanied by digital slides and videos. Others describe their research on large posters mounted on long rows of supports. At designated poster viewing times, conference attendees wander through hundreds of posters while the authors stand nearby to answer questions.
In January, the AMS held its annual meeting in Austin. My new book, “Hawaii's Mauna Loa Observatory: Fifty Years of Monitoring the Atmosphere” (University of Hawaii Press, 2012), was scheduled to receive an award at the meeting, and I was given a pass to the conference and exhibits hall.
The exhibits hall was filled with the very latest weather monitoring radars and instruments that measure wind, rain, humidity, lightning, hail, snow and sunlight. Most instruments were designed to be operated from land or sea. Some were designed to be flown from balloons that sample the atmosphere while they float up to 100,000 feet above the ground.
Later, I joined hundreds of meteorologists at the poster session. The variety of weather science presented on those posters was simply overwhelming.
During the session I spotted John Porter of the University of Hawaii, whom I first met at the Mauna Loa Observatory. Porter had two posters, one of which described his cloud photography system that measures wind speeds high in the sky. A second poster described his use of satellite data to track the plume from Hawaii's Kilauea volcano.
Some posters were about the frequency and prevalence of lightning and the circumstances under which it occurs.
One poster described a method for adjusting the temperature records of weather stations that have been moved to a new location. Other posters were devoted to research and discoveries related to drought, air pollution, floods, tornadoes, hail, hurricanes and weather satellites.
Forecasting was a major theme, especially forecasts related to severe storms. One poster discussed errors in rain forecasts.
I left the meeting reassured that meteorologists are working hard to improve their forecasts.
Forrest Mims, an amateur scientist whose research has appeared in leading scientific journals, was named one of the “50 Best Brains in Science” by Discover Magazine. His science is featured at www.forrestmims.org. Email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.