When the pilgrims gathered for their first Thanksgiving in 1621, their harvest included eel, cod, American chestnuts, and maybe even bald eagle. Needless to say, today's spread looks very different, but those original species didn’t fare so well in later centuries after encountering pollution, overfishing, invasive fungi, and pesticides. Our current holiday menu has been taking some environmental hits as well. Times and tastes change, but all of this makes me wonder whether today’s Thanksgiving favorites will make it to the table in the climate-altered centuries to come.
Here’s a look into what might become the future of the feast:
- Turkey: One of the lessons heat waves have taught us is to not, um, pre-cook our birds. Record high temperatures over the last two summers in the U.S. killed hundreds of thousands of turkeys before their time. According to some past studies, heat stress could also make turkey meat even drier. (So don’t blame mom!)
- Tofurkey: U.S. production of soy, which comprises many a fake meat product, will slightly improve as daily high temperatures rise – up to a certain point, that is, then yields will fall off a cliff, according to a 2008 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Corn bread: Our country grows huge amounts of corn, but there might be less around for food as climate change takes chunks out of crop yields and kernels head to biofuel refineries.
- Cranberry sauce: Whether you like your sauce jellied or with whole berries, we might have to start importing more cranberries from Canada as the shrub’s optimal habitat heads north. That said, Wisconsin’s cranberry harvest (the country’s largest) emerged from this summer’s drought fine, and warmer temperatures boosted the berries in Maine, where farmers now entertain thoughts of growing more southern fruits. Pass the kiwi sauce?
- Potatoes: How do you feel about mashed bananas or bananas au gratin instead? Yeah, I didn’t think so. With global population and temperatures on the rise in tater-growing areas, a United Nations report sees bananas as a possible substitute to meet demand.
- Yams: Like sweet potatoes? Good! There may be a lot of these drought-hardy spuds around. Yams candied with maple syrup, however, will be harder to come by.
- Pie: No matter who bakes it, pecan and pumpkin pie may be hit or miss in Thanksgivings to come. Rains early in the growing season saved this year’s pecan crop, but a prolonged drought in Texas last year cut production of the nut by 45 percent (8 percent nationally), and demand from overseas caused prices to skyrocket. Meanwhile pumpkins do pretty well in drought but do horribly during seasons with higher than average rainfall.
- Chocolate: This staple for almost every American holiday is also in trouble as West African cocoa growers, who produce about half of the world’s supply, struggle to keep their industry from melting under higher temperatures.
- Wine: Perhaps the most important item on the table, wine will continue to take the edge off family gatherings or propel them into shouting matches on politics and American Idol preferences. But since grapes react strongly to weather extremes, future reds and whites will likely hale from different regions than they do now. Move over vino from southern Europe, and make way for British vintages? (Well, wherever it’s from, I’m sure we’ll be thankful.)