ROBERT RAPIER: Per unit of energy produced, coal emits substantially more carbon dioxide than oil or natural gas. While the U.S. has been captivated by the Keystone XL pipeline debate, the entire global oil resource pales in comparison to coal’s potential contribution to climate change. If the world is going to get serious about tackling climate change, we have to recognize and address coal’s relative threat.
A 2012 paper by Neil C. Swart and Andrew J. Weaver that was published in “Nature Climate Change” quantified the relative potential warming contributions of various fossil fuel resources. Their paper shows that according to computer models, the average global temperature could increase by nearly 19°C if all of the world’s fossil-fuel resource was burned and converted into carbon dioxide. But a whopping 80% of that potential warming is because of the world’s coal resource. (Note that a “resource” includes the entire deposit, while the reserve is a much smaller subset that is technically and economically recoverable).
Source: Neil C. Swart and Andrew J. Weaver, Nature Climate Change, 2, 2012
Another way to look at it is like this. The 2009 Copenhagen Accord on climate change agreed that if the worst impacts of climate change are to be avoided, we need to keep the temperature rise below a 2°C increase from preindustrial times. Burning the world’s conventional oil resource could raise the world’s temperature by an estimated 0.3°C. Conventional natural gas resources could add another 0.4°C. Unconventional oil–such as Alberta’s oil sands–could add another potential 0.5 °C, while unconventional gas such as methane hydrates could add another 2.8°C. But the world’s coal resource alone could add nearly 15°C to the world’s temperature.
Thus, the path forward with coal is to figure out how not to use it. Despite the associated climate risk, global coal consumption is growing, driven primarily by demand in Southeast Asia. Because people aspire to a higher standard of living – which tends to go along with increasing consumption of energy – we have to work hard on supplying energy that is competitive with coal, but without coal’s relatively high level of emissions.
There are alternatives with various trade-offs, such as renewables, natural gas, and nuclear. While countries are pushing forward with all them, there are also an estimated 1200 new coal-fired power plants in various stages of planning around the world. Three quarters of them are in China and India. In order to derail these plans we have to come up with better energy supply options.
Robert Rapier (@RRapier) is chief technology officer and executive vice president at Merica International, a forestry and renewable energy company. He serves as managing editor for Energy Trends Insider and is chief investment strategist for Investing Daily’s Energy Strategist service.
Read the latest Energy Report.