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Normalcy bias From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:
The normalcy bias refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of the government to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred that it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.
Possible causes: The normalcy bias may be caused in part by the way the brain processes new data. Research suggests that even when the brain is calm, it takes 8–10 seconds to process new information. Stress slows the process, and when the brain cannot find an acceptable response to a situation, it fixates on a single solution that may or may not be correct. An evolutionary reason for this response could be that paralysis gives an animal a better chance of surviving an attack; predators are less likely to eat prey that isn't struggling.
Effects: The normalcy bias often results in unnecessary deaths in disaster situations. The lack of preparation for disasters often leads to inadequate shelter, supplies, and evacuation plans. Even when all these things are in place, individuals with a normalcy bias often refuse to leave their homes. Studies have shown that more than 70% of people check with others before deciding to evacuate. The normalcy bias also causes people to drastically underestimate the effects of the disaster. Therefore, they think that everything will be all right, while information from the radio, television, or neighbors gives them reason to believe there is a risk. This creates a cognitive dissonance that they then must work to eliminate. Some manage to eliminate it by refusing to believe new warnings coming in and refusing to evacuate (maintaining the normalcy bias), while others eliminate the dissonance by escaping the danger. The possibility that some may refuse to evacuate causes significant problems in disaster planning.
Originally posted by agentblue
I think there are many off shoots to the normalcy bias in terms of the way people process information that is disconcerting. For instance, a huge conspiracy is uncovered such as the dumping of toxic waste into the rivers and it has potential to kill thousands of people and it is a real concern yet some people will just blow it off and others will steer away from that body of water completely. I may be confusing normalcy bias with denial but I see it kinda intertwined
Originally posted by Greensage
When I am faced with an emergency I often have to sit for a spell to rationalize my options. This must be because I have "normalcy bias"; either that or I am a calm and rational person.
However, sometimes it is best to let some crises sit for a spell rather than jump into them with fear or urgency.
For instance, my rabbit is sick and possibly with infection, I wasn't too sure what I wanted to do about it or how I should help him overcome this. I let it sit for a spell and I managed to walk through my options; I agreed that the following day I could manage the task at hand much easier. Fortunately the resolution was better served the next day as I had a second set of hands to hold the rabbit while I washed him. He is a very old rabbit (5 years old) and I feel he will at least now be comfortable regardless of the outcome. Poor thing!
Rabbits typically only live to be 6 years old and any infection usually takes them right away. My rabbit may or may not recover, but the crisis part is over and he and I both can relax a bit. The inevitable cannot be avoided either way but the initial frustration was best served by waiting.
I am sure that some people might have freaked and rushed off to an emergency clinic, spending hundreds of dollars on an old rabbit and ultimately facing the same end results. I am glad I just let this wait for the day to pass before I attempted my administrations.
Originally posted by harrytuttle
The Normalcy Bias is a subset of Monkey-See,Monkey-Do Bias.
I'm serious - people don't respond to disaster because they look around at the other uninformed sheeple to gauge how their own response should be. They See people doing nothing, They Do nothing.
The opposite is also true - once people start Seeing others buying Potassium Iodide tablets, they ALL start wanting to buy the tablets - DESPITE the fact that NO ONE in authority told them to go buy it.
Humans are social animals and often just mimic what the other humans are doing - no matter who gives them what information.