- One study period
- 3 Hours per Week
2020 teaching periods
|HOL Study Period 3|
Last self enrolment:
PrerequisitesSTA60005 Statistical Practice 2
Aims and objectives
This unit introduces students to a range of forecasting methods and their application to planning and decision-making. It teaches teach students about common tools and packages used in forecasting; the use of historical data to identify appropriate forecasting model(s); the use of accuracy measures to check the adequacy of the selected model; and the use the final model to forecast future values.
Students who successfully complete this unit will be able to:
1. Plot time series and describe their characteristics
2. Demonstrate fundamental concepts in time series modelling, such as time series decomposition and stationarity.
3. Compute indices based on time series data
4. Appraise the limitations of regression as a forecasting tool.
5. Demonstrate univariate forecasting methods such as ARIMA and exponential smoothing and identifying appropriate models for a project.
6. Assess forecast performance using key measures of forecast accuracy such as MSE and MAPE.
7. Interpret forecast results for a general non-statistical audience.