URGED on by populist politicians, thousands of squatters congregated on a white-owned farm. A car drew up, overloaded with sticks and scrap, which some of the squatters used to start building a makeshift house. “Why this land? It is the only place we have got,” said one. Police and two cabinet ministers stood and watched. Zimbabwe? No, South Africa.
That scene, which took place near Johannesburg two years ago, is just the sort of thing white South Africans dread: that their property may be grabbed, as white Zimbabweans' land has been. But such fears are overstated. Unlike in Zimbabwe, the law counts for something in South Africa. After a court ruled that those squatters had acted illegally, bailiffs forced them out. Shacks and shebeens were piled on to trucks and removed; the fields they occupied are now being farmed again.
But still, some whites are not reassured. The reason: Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's president, is poised to sign an amendment to a 1994 land act to let his minister of agriculture expropriate farms without going to court. This will only be allowed in cases where black South Africans can show that the land was once theirs, and that it was unfairly seized. The law also says that the existing owner must be fully compensated. But farmers and the opposition are predicting havoc. “Mbeki set to back land grabs,” blared one headline.
Loose talk by ruling-party politicians lends credence to such dire forecasts. South Africa's foreign minister calls criticism of Zimbabwe's land invasions “unrevolutionary”. Mr Mbeki has opined that forcible grabs were “perhaps inevitable” in Zimbabwe when peaceful land reform failed. No wonder some South African farmers are anxious.
“We have no certainty that a Zimbabwe situation will not happen in South Africa,” says Wilhelm Auret of AgriSA, a farmers' union. He notes that some 1,500 farmers and their relations have been murdered since 1991, vastly more than the number killed in Zimbabwe. Officials blame robbers, but Mr Auret fears that a “sort of force” may be organising them.
A new pressure group, the Landless People's Movement, which claims 100,000 members, threatens farm invasions next year. Its leaders also say they will disrupt South Africa's pending general election, with the slogan “no land, no vote”, unless land is redistributed faster. Last weekend, the agriculture minister, Thoko Didiza, met them.
South Africa is not Zimbabwe, however. South African squatters usually demand space to build houses, not to grow crops. Granted, the government does say it wants 30% of agricultural land to be in black hands by 2015, to promote black commercial farming. But there are many farms for sale, and a price that suits both parties can usually be agreed.
Restoring land seized under apartheid has been painfully slow but is picking up speed: of the 65,000 claims lodged by 1998, 46,000 have been resolved. In many cases claimants take cash compensation, leaving a white farmer, perhaps with a 99-year lease, to plough on.
This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "More squeeze than grab"