Bias in science and communication : a field guide / Matthew Welsh
- Welsh, Matthew Brian
- Bristol [England] (Temple Circus, Temple Way, Bristol BS1 6HG, UK) : IOP Publishing, 
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (various pagings) : color illustrations
- Additional Creators:
- Institute of Physics (Great Britain)
- IOP release 5
IOP expanding physics, 2053-2563
- part I. Introduction. 1. Pop quiz : a battery of decision-making questions for selfassessment and reflection -- 1.1. Exam conditions -- 1.2. Quiz, 2. Anchors aweigh : an introduction to the book, decision making and decision biases -- 2.1. A brief history of decision making -- 2.2. Bounded rationality -- 2.3. Conclusion, 3. On message : reasons for and types of communication -- 3.1. Scientific communication -- 3.2. Personal communication -- 3.3. Policy communication -- 3.4. Group communications and decisions -- 3.5. Elicitation of uncertainty -- 3.6. Conclusion, part II. Biases in judgement and decision making. 4. Improbable interpretations : misunderstanding statistics and probability -- 4.1. Risk, variability and uncertainty -- 4.2. Subjective probability -- 4.3. Bias in intuitive probability theory -- 4.4. Conclusions, 5. Truth seeking? Biases in search strategies -- 5.1. Bounded rationality in search -- 5.2. Recognising recognition -- 5.3. Search strategies -- 5.4. Conclusions, 6. Same but different : unexpected effects of format changes -- 6.1. Percentages and frequencies -- 6.2. Nudges, defaults and frames -- 6.3. Decisions under framing -- 6.4. First, last and best -- 6.5. Conclusions, 7. I'm confident, you're biased : accuracy and calibration of predictions -- 7.1. Confidence : good or bad? -- 7.2. Under and over -- 7.3. Implications of overconfidence -- 7.4. Reducing overconfidence -- 7.5. Conclusions, 8. Sub-total recall : nature of memory processes, their limitations and resultant biases -- 8.1. Remember this -- 8.2. Available memories -- 8.3. More or less? -- 8.4. Heard it all before? -- 8.5. Conclusions, 9. Angels and demons : biases from categorisation and fluency -- 9.1. Heights of success -- 9.2. In and out -- 9.3. Easy to believe -- 9.4. Conclusions, 10. Us and them : scientists versus lay-people and individual differences in decision bias -- 10.1. Experts and novices -- 10.2. Individual differences -- 10.3. Implications for scientists -- 10.4. Conclusions, part III. Implications and solutions. 11. Warp and weft : publication bias example to weave it all together -- 11.1. Biased science -- 11.2. Judging peer judgement -- 11.3. Debiasing science -- 11.4. Conclusions, 12. Felicitous elicitation : reducing biases through better elicitation processes -- 12.1. My biases -- 12.2. Your biases -- 12.3. Conclusions, 13. A river in Egypt : denial, scepticism and debunking false beliefs -- 13.1. Facts, factoids and fictions -- 13.2. Boosting believability -- 13.3. Fool me once, fool me forever? -- 13.4. Debunking -- 13.5. Conclusions, and part IV. Conclusions. 14. The field guide : general conclusion and spotters guide to biases -- 14.1. Spotter's guide to bias -- 14.2. Epilogue.
- Bias is a natural outcome of our thinking patterns. The nature of our cognitive processes leads to inherent limitations, resulting in predictable biases in both our own judgements and the interpretation of our communications by the public, by policymakers and even other scientists. This book will introduce the concept of biases arising from cognitive limitations and tendencies with a focus of the implications of this for scientists in particular. It begins with an initial quiz designed to demonstrate key biases--allowing readers to look back at the responses that they provided prior to reading about specific biases and thus see, without the impact of hindsight bias, whether they were susceptible to the effects.
- 9780750313117 ebook
- Audience Notes:
- Advanced Student & Researcher, workers in industry.
- "Version: 20180501"--Title page verso.
- Bibliography Note:
- Includes bibliographical references.
- Other Forms:
- Also available in print.
- Technical Details:
- Mode of access: World Wide Web.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader, EPUB reader, or Kindle reader.
- Administrative History:
- Matthew Welsh is a psychological scientist specialising in decision-making. His primary area of research is in decision-making under uncertainty, particularly as it relates to real-world problems. In his role at the Australian School of Petroleum, he researches how people's decision-making tendencies impact the choices that they make and the economic flow-on effects of this for industries such as oil and gas, which depend on expert judgement and estimation to reduce uncertainty. He teaches in the Australian School of Petroleum's decision-making courses at honours and master's levels; and in the School of Psychology's master's in organisational psychology.
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