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Report predicts climate calamity / All continents face drought, starvation, rising seas, panel says,
Jane Kay, Chronicle Environment Writer
Published 4:00 am, Saturday, April 7, 2007
As global temperatures continue to climb, every continent in the world is vulnerable to severe shifts in weather patterns and rising sea levels that could lead to drought, food shortages, heat waves and disease, according to a report adopted Friday by an international body of scientists.
"No one of us will escape the impacts of climate change," said Patricia Romero Lankao, a scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, speaking from Brussels, where the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is meeting.
Four decades of research from scientists around the world shows that the poorest societies in the arid regions of the world -- the areas that have contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions -- are likely to be hardest hit. They lack the means to deal with water shortages from droughts and other natural disasters, she said.
But the wealthiest nations won't be spared. People in cities will suffer from heat waves, flooding and other catastrophes brought about by disruption in climate patterns, said Romero Lankao, who contributed to the report.
The severity of the effects depends on how well nations control carbon dioxide and other gases being released to the atmosphere through the burning of coal, oil and natural gas and the clearing of forests.
The first installment of the report, which appeared in February, concluded that most of the observed increase in the average global temperature since the mid-20th century "very likely" is due to the increase in human-produced greenhouse gases.
On Friday, the scientists approved a 24-page summary of the second of four installments scheduled for release this year. The full report of 20 chapters will be released in several days and is based on thousands of studies, most completed in the past five years.
"Global warming is coming so rapidly that species can't change their genetics fast enough. They have to vamoose," she said.
Species are moving toward the poles and to higher elevations. Sometimes the species have nowhere to go, Root said. Spring is coming five days earlier on average, and fall is lasting longer by about two weeks.
The release Friday of the summary report followed a contentious battle over wording at the five-day Brussels meeting, in part over effects on wildlife. Negotiators from the United States, Saudi Arabia and China were among those who wanted the report to show there is less certainty over some issues, such as how nature will be affected by climate change on a regional level.
Romero Lankao confirmed reports that at least one statement was deleted. But in other debates over wording, the scientific authors were satisfied with the changes, she said.
Stephen Schneider, a Stanford University professor and coordinating lead author of a chapter on risks of climate change, said in an interview from Brussels that "it's always a chore" to get agreement on the final wording. There is often a conflict between scientists who are most interested in the data and a few diplomats who worry about how the global warming data will affect their countries' interests.
"Probably the vast majority are helpful. But you have a few countries with big coal-burning plants who think a strong position on climate change is not good for business," he said.
In the end, the process works, Schneider said, because about 130 nations sign on to the report, forcing them to take ownership in solving the problem.
The report recommends that nations adopt mitigation measures such as building sea walls and irrigation systems to deal with the unavoidable effects of global warming that are already happening. Nations should try to control global warming by controlling emissions through energy efficiency and green power, it said.
Read the summary of the report:
Read earlier coverage:
Impact in North America
A report by an international body of scientists predicts what will happen in North America as the climate warms:
-- Snowpack will decrease in the Western mountains, resulting in more winter flooding and reduced summer flows.
-- Precipitation will decrease in the Southwest and Southern California, which already are undergoing droughtlike conditions.
-- Pine bark beetles will proliferate, adding to the risk of wildfires.
-- Coastal communities face increased hazards from erosion and loss of infrastructure.
WARMING HOT SPOTS
In addition to predictions of the effect of climate change on North America, a report by an international group of scientists finds that the countries that have done the least to aggravate global warming might have the most to lose when temperatures rise. Some potential impacts:
-- Small islands in the tropics and at higher latitudes are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and other extreme events.
-- Erosion, deterioration of beaches and coral bleaching can reduce fisheries, a food supply, as well as local tourism.
-- Higher seas are expected to exacerbate storm surges and other coastal hazards. " By mid-century, particularly in the Caribbean and Pacific, water resources are expected to be insufficient.
-- Increases in temperature and decreases in moisture are expected to trigger a shift from tropical forest to savanna in the eastern Amazon Basin.
-- In drier areas, there are forecasts of desertification of agricultural land.
-- Low-lying areas are vulnerable to rising sea levels, and increases in ocean temperatures threaten coral reefs and Pacific fish stocks.
-- Polar bears, other mammals and migratory birds are among the species that might lose habitat.
-- There is a reduction in the thickness and extent of land glaciers and ice sheets.
-- By 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people in Africa are expected to be suffering from lack of fresh water supplies. They face starvation and malnutrition.
-- In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by half by 2020.
-- Warming lakes harm fish, which people depend upon for food.
-- Coral reefs and mangroves are expected to degrade, and rising sea levels are predicted to flood low regions.
-- More heat waves are expected in Europe.
-- Mountainous areas face glacier retreat and shift of species leading to mass extinctions for those that can't adapt.
-- Less rain is expected for the Mediterranean and most of Europe.
-- More frequent flooding is projected in the winter for Northern Europe.
-- Within the next two to three decades, melting of Himalaya glaciers will produce flooding and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes. The disruption is projected to damage river flow.
-- Fresh water sources are expected to decrease on the continent as demand increases. More than a billion people could be affected by the 2050s.
AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND
-- Scientists forecast water problems in southern and eastern Australia and in New Zealand by 2030 because of reduced precipitation.
-- In ecologically rich sites, including the Great Barrier Reef, a significant loss of biological diversity is projected by 2020.
-- Production from forestry and farming is expected to decline.