For non-cooperative countries, there is currently no demonstrated capability to estimate country-level emissions using direct measurements of atmospheric CO2 that has sufficient accuracy to support monitoring of compliance with international agreements.
Allowing other nations to verify industrial emissions of greenhouse gasses has flared into an area of disagreement between U.S. and Chinese negotiators, most recently in discussions at the Cancun climate treaty meeting last month. "If meaningful international agreements are reached to limit or reduce the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide that contribute to global warming, then it will be necessary to verify compliance with such agreements," notes Secrecy News analyst Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists, in a write-up of the report.
The report focused on estimating carbon dioxide emissions, the most noteworthy of greenhouse gases linked to global warming, with plus-or-minus 20% certainty for results. "For cooperative countries, the technology currently exists to directly monitor (greenhouse gas) emissions sufficiently well on an annual basis to support U.S. decision-making on international agreements.," says the study.
JASON panel members also looked at satellites observing the energy and industrial facilities of nations that won't allow on-the-ground sensor networks or inspections to verify they have met their climate commitments. "This is done by monitoring the energy infrastructure, estimating fossil fuel consumption, and then estimating (carbon dioxide) emissions using appropriate emission factors," says the study. The report says this approach could work for estimating emissions from non-cooperative nations, but needs more study, starting with figuring out the existing industrial sources of greenhouse gases from the largest emitters, such as China and Russia.
Within the next five years, the report concludes that the combination of newer satellites, such as a replacement for NASA's crashed Orbiting Carbon Observatory, with downwind measurement of carbon dioxide streams, could possibly deliver the desired accuracy of emissions estimates.
"Additional international agreements are likely in the future and monitoring of compliance with these agreements will be important," says the report. As well as developing a geosynchronous orbit monitoring satellite capability, the report calls for development of a sensitive on-the-ground carbon dioxide monitor costing less than $500.
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