Developing countries need to transition to a low-carbon transport sector now to avoid locking themselves into an unsustainable and costly future, a new report by the World Bank warns.
According to Turning the Right Corner: Ensuring Development Through a Low-Carbon Transport Sector, technical progress will take too long to fix the problem of transport emissions, with fuel cell cars, for instance, only expected to become a mass technology by the end of the 21st century.
Countries need to start shifting now to more sustainable mobility patterns and, to make this affordable, broad sector reforms will be needed that cover all external costs of transport, not just greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
“Transport is a driver of social and economic development, enabling citizens to access health care, education, and jobs, and unlocking growth potential for cities and countries,” says World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development Rachel Kyte. “Developing countries can make choices now to reduce transport GHG emissions, so as to lower fossil fuel use and transport costs in the long run, while safeguarding transport’s contribution to inclusive green growth.”
If countries do not contain fossil fuel use, transport will become the biggest emitter of GHGs by the middle of the 21st century, and rising oil prices and agreements on carbon pricing will lead to higher transport prices.
European countries, which are well endowed with public transport, are better placed to respond to future changes in energy and emission prices than countries such as the United States which have emphasized road infrastructure.