The future emissions trajectory has the potential to be significantly worse. Egypt and South Africa both have plans for more than 12 GigaWatts of new coal capacity. Botswana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe all plan to add more than 2GW. Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has plans for 16GW, and another 15GW of plans have been developed but are on hold, with no ongoing activity. For a few of the countries, there are domestic coal deposits that would provide a relatively inexpensive source of fuel, and Chinese and Indian companies have been investing in the area heavily.
To take a look at what this could mean, the authors developed two scenarios. In one, all 15GW of shelved projects end up cancelled, and only 30 percent of the planned 16GW get built. While 30 percent may seem low, 66 percent of the coal projects planned globally have ended up cancelled in this decade, and the rate is even higher in Africa. Existing facilities and any new ones are then assumed to operate at 30 percent of their rated capacity, just a bit below the regional average.
In that scenario, coal remains a negligible factor in sub-Saharan Africa (excepting South Africa). As a result, growth in emissions would slow out to 2025 and remain driven primarily by oil products used for transportation. The expanded fossil fuel use would be equalled by an expansion in the amount of renewable power such as hydro and biomass. For the continent as a whole, however, Egypt and South Africa would contribute to significant emissions growth.
If all of them were built and operated at a higher capacity level, then they would boost the carbon emissions of sub-Saharan Africa by about a third by 2025.
Critically, the low-emissions scenario would help put Africa on a path that's consistent with the stabilization of global emissions, even while allowing continued economic growth.
The challenge is finding ways of putting the region on a more sustainable course. As the authors note, the region has "very heterogeneous countries with large differences regarding potentials for renewable energy generation, fossil fuel endowments, and legal and political systems." There won't be a one-size-fits-all solution to ensuring that economic development proceeds without an increased reliance on coal.
But the prospects for doing so are there. The nations of sub-Saharan Africa are parties to the Paris climate agreement and have submitted plans to limit future emissions. The authors note that these plans are generally vague and poorly defined, suggesting that there's significant space for countries to adopt a sustainable energy economy. The rest of the world will just have to make sure the necessary technologies are affordable and the loans and aid they provide align with this goal.