The Fifth Season is the name of the first book of the Broken Earth series, a critically-acclaimed science-fiction/fantasty trilogy that is set on an alternative Earth that is far more geologically active, to the point where climate catastrophes are routine, civilizations are in a constant state of imminent collapse, and the specter of a sudden and horrific increase in resource scarcity is always looming. An era of a climate catastrophe is called a “Fifth Season”, and usually lasts years or even decades, and is usually marked by volcanic ash and smoke choking up the atmosphere and blocking out the sun.
It seems likely now that Northern California will be having its own “fifth season” of wildfires and smoke, between fall and winter. Last year, in October, firestorms wrecked havoc across Northern California, and dumped smoke into the rest of the Bay Area for several weeks. 44 people were killed, and $14.5 billion in damage was done. It was the first time I can remember that the Bay Area was severely affected by wildfire smoke from the northern regions.
Now, its happening for the second year in a row, with devastating fires in Butte County creating even more unprecedented smoke conditions in the Bay Area. The Camp Fire is already the most destructive in Californian history, with 63 confirmed dead so far and entire towns burned to the ground. The smoke around Sacramento and the Bay Area has oscillated between “unhealthy” (AQI > 200) and “hazardous” (AQI > 300) levels. As of right now, the Bay Area appears to have the worst air quality in the world.
This interview from Inside Climate News with a Californian climate scientist sheds some light on how climate change is exacerbating California’s wildfires. The main points:
- The usual reminder that climate change doesn’t cause natural disasters, but does exacerbate things
- California’s fire season has typically been in the summer and especially in the fall, and ends when the first rains hit; but climate change has been disrupting the typical rain patterns and it has been raining later and later in the year, extending the wildfire season into November
- The warming climate means that trees and other plant matter lose moisture more quickly, making them much more combustible
Another relevant factor is the massive amount of dead trees in California — around 100 – 130 million — which are an excellent fuel source for wildfires. The dead trees are a result of both the ongoing drought, which is made worse due to climate change, and bark beetles, which have spread from Central America and up the West Coast, all the way into Canada, and have found easy prey in the drought-weakened trees of California. The warming climate also helps the beetles, by helping them survive the winters.
What will be the result of California’s new fifth season? Like in the Broken Earth trilogy, it will certainly not help with resource scarcity, especially housing, and put more and more strain on government budgets. And it will definitely reshape our behaviors and the way we will plan out our cities and our lives; there are serious questions that ought to be raised, such as whether there is a right to protective equipment, when a municipality ought to declare a state of emergency, how to be proactive about smoke damage to at-risk populations, and how to enforce safety standards onto the multitude of corporations that will be sure to drag their workers into the toxic air regardless of what prevailing medical advice is.
It is worth emphasizing that natural disasters are ultimately bounded by what kind of socio-economic system they encounter. In addition to battling against fossil capital, what we need to do is develop “disaster communism” (see as described by Commune, Libcom, and Verso) as a counter to disaster capitalism, and take advantage of climate chaos in whatever ways we can, both for survival as well as revolutionary class struggle.