Doctors Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University released the 2014 Hurricane Season Forecast.
The good news is they could even make the forecast. They lost their funding last year, and announced the forecasts were over.
Some money came in, and the forecast is out, calling for a below average season -- nine storms, three hurricanes and one intense.
Keep in mind, it just takes one. An average season is considered 12 storms, six hurricanes and three intense.
The reasoning for a lower than average season:
1. The Tropical Atlantic is cooler than average.
2. El Nino appears to be developing and an El Nino Watch is posted.
Depressions, storms and hurricanes feed on warm water. The water temp needs to be about 80 degrees and the warm water has to extend at least 150 feet deep. The motion of the storms moves the water. Unless the warm water is very deep, cool water will up well and essentially kill the storm.
El Nino is the development of warm water off the Equatorial East South Pacific. This warm water causes air to rise and winds to develop that blow aloft across the Tropical Atlantic Basin.
These strong upper level winds can tear tropical storms apart and can even prevent them from developing. Think back to the two early season storms Alberto and Beryl in 2012. They were torn apart by wind shear. It’s a good thing.
There is a 50 percent chance that El Nino will develop this year.
If it develops late in the season, it would have little impact on the number of storms. Remember the most active time in hurricane season is late August through September. If we have a fully developed El Nino by then, there could be an impact on the number of storms.
Why do we care about a hurricane season forecast when last year’s forecast was very wrong?
Last year, Colorado State forecasted 18 storms, nine hurricanes and four intense.
NOAA's forecast was 13-20 storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 intense.
What did we end up with? 14 storms and 2 hurricanes.
There were no major hurricanes, and in fact the storms that developed did not last long. There were basically just flare-ups of storms. Last year was plagued by upper-level lows that created strong winds aloft across the Atlantic Basin.
We also had an incredible amount of Saharan Dust and dry air aloft. Neither are conducive to tropical development.
Look at what happened to Tropical Storm Karen when it moved into the Gulf of Mexico. It was torn apart and never made landfall as a tropical system. That’s a good thing.
So why do we care about a Hurricane Season Forecast? It’s a reminder.
Hurricane Season starts June1 and lasts through Nov. 30. It lets us know that the season is right around the corner.
It’s time to think about what we need to do to get our homes ready. It’s a reminder to think about where we will go if we need to evacuate. It’s a good time to invite friends who live out of town to visit for Jazz Fest, or one of our other great festivals. And by the way, if a hurricane comes our way, ask them, "Can we stay with you?"
A hurricane season forecast lets us know our risk. The greater the number of storms and hurricanes, statistically the greater the risk for a hit. The truth is you can have a low number of storms and get hit, and a high number of storms and not get hit.
Think back to 1992 and Hurricane Andrew. It was a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds when it made landfall in south Florida as the third-strongest land-falling U.S. hurricane in history.
There were only seven storms that year, four of which were hurricanes and one of which was intense, which was Andrew. Andrew by the way did eventually come our way causing a killer F3 tornado in Laplace.
2010 was tied with several years as the third most active in history. There were 19 storms, 12 hurricanes and five intense, but not one storm or hurricane made landfall in the U.S.
Steering currents determine where storms go, and that information is not obvious until the storm develops.
More information: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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