Time and Discounting in Private and Public Decision Making
Edited by David J. Pannell and Steven G.M. Schilizzi
Chapter 9: How Should We Discount the Future? An Environmental Perspective
9. How should we discount the future? An environmental perspective Michael D. Young and Darla Hatton MacDonald SUMMARY When pushed to the limit, the use of conventional discount rate methodologies reveals a number of absurd propositions. This chapter seeks to identify the reasons why conventional discounting methods that involve long-term decisions do not produce the information necessary and sufficient to make a sensible recommendation to a decision maker. The chapter then goes on to explore a range of issues associated with decisions the management and protection of renewable resources. It begins by recognizing that discounting is important and that one cannot validly recommend that a zero discount rate be used. Having made this case, Australian investments in salinity interception are used as a case study to reveal the nature of many problems presented. In this case, the investments being made postpone and compound salinity impacts by several hundred years – all the benefits occur in a shorter time period. The effects of macroeconomic policy on discount rate selection and through this on likely future environmental conditions are then explored. Having dealt with issues associated with risk and uncertainty, the chapter explores a range of techniques and proposed solutions that are in various stages of development. These options include constraining the range of permitted analyses, and making adjustments to account for expected changes in the future population of a nation and to account for the preferences of populations as they age. Increased use of sensitivity analyses that explore the sensitivity of a...
You are not authenticated to view the full text of this chapter or article.
Elgaronline requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books or journals. Please login through your library system or with your personal username and password on the homepage.
Non-subscribers can freely search the site, view abstracts/ extracts and download selected front matter and introductory chapters for personal use.
Your library may not have purchased all subject areas. If you are authenticated and think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.