Is it possible to make a forecast how intense the winter will be in Germany from the current time already? MILK weather has looked at this question and is now saying - yes, it is possible. But the long-term forecasting is still in teh early beginnings, and it is still experimental.
The old German saying "Ist der oktober warm und fein, kommt ein scharfer Winter drein, ist er aber nass und kühl, mild der Winter werden will." (If the october is warm and nice, a cold winter is expected, but if it is cool and wet, the winter will be mild) was investigated - with stunning results. If the October is too warm, then a too cold winter is to be expected. This is observed as soon as the October is 2°C warmer than normal. And if the October is too cool (at least 2°C), a too mild winter is forecast.
Now to the forecast.
The October, so far, was too warm in all of Germany. It was 2.9°C too warm in Helgoland, and 3.9°C too warm in Hamburg - and this leads to the conclusion that a cold winter is to be expected.
Probability this forecast is correct:
- 80% (N Germany)
- 90% (E Germany)
- 80% (W Germany)
- 80% (central Germany)
- 70% (S Germany)