Cargo transit time is currently very hard to predict. Our research into shipments between China and North America found that the time between cargo entering the port of origin and leaving the port of destination can vary significantly.
Such great variation in transit time is a result of delays and deviations in the shipping journey. There is a natural randomness to operations, caused by a volatile, often disconnected system where shipments typically pass through multiple providers.
The process of estimating transit time is also flawed, with supply chain estimates often failing to take the current market conditions into account. But many delays are related to specific disruptions, such as weather events, strikes or systemic capacity shortages. As a result, estimates are often inaccurate–and transit times are varied.
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