Boosted by a historic heat wave in Europe and unusually warm conditions across the Arctic and Eurasia, the average temperature of the planet soared to its highest level ever recorded in June, and July is picking up right where June left off — though maybe not in Canada
According to data released Monday by NASA, the global average temperature was 0.93 degrees Celsius above the June norm (based on a 1951-to-1980 baseline), easily breaking the previous June record of 0.82 degrees Celsius, set in 2016, above the average.
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The month was punctuated by a severe heat wave that struck Western Europe in particular during the last week, with numerous all-time-hottest-temperature records falling in countries with centuries-old data sets.
Notably, 13 locations in France surpassed their highest temperature ever recorded. The heat wave’s highest temperature of 45.9 degrees Celsius, posted in Gallargues-le-Montueux, was 3.2 degrees above the old record, set during an infamous heat wave in July and August 2003.
NASA is the second institution to confirm that it was Earth’s hottest June, as the Copernicus Climate Change Service had already determined that June 2019 was the warmest such month on record for Europe and globally.
June featured unusually mild conditions in the Arctic, particularly in Greenland, where the melt season got off to an early start.
Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist based in Berkeley, California, tweeted that the July so far ranks as the hottest on record narrowly ahead of 2017, the previous record holder.
“If this July turns out to be the warmest July (it has a good shot at it), it will be the warmest month we have measured on Earth!” tweeted Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University.
But according to David Phillips, Environment Canada’s senior climatologist, Canada won’t be contributing much to July’s heat record, if it reaches it — the biggest contributors would be mainly Europe and Africa.
The July weather, though it is hotter than normal, won’t be as intense in Canada as it might be in other places.
“Even though we’re the second largest country in the world and a huge landmass, we don’t necessarily dictate how the world will be,” Phillips said. “It can be colder in Canada and still have the warmest month on record globally.”
There have been some extremes: Alert, Nunavut, the northernmost permanently inhabited location on Earth hit a record high of 21.0 degrees Celsius Sunday, breaking the previous record of 20 degrees Celsius.
And according to The Weather Network, Ontario is set to be hit with a heat wave as well, with temperatures peaking around 30 degrees Celsius, but with the humidity closer to 40 degrees.
In addition, Alaska last week posted its hottest two days on record, highlighted by a temperature of 32.2 degrees Celsius in Anchorage for the first time.
The June monthly record and July’s toasty first half raises the odds that 2019 could make a run for a top-three finish for warmest year, rather than top five. According to data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2000, a trend that scientists have tied mainly to human emissions of greenhouse gases.
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A stifling heat wave has begun to take shape across large portions of the U.S., with millions likely to see temperature creep toward the century mark, along with even higher heat indices by this weekend.
The heat wave is already generating excessive heat watches in the central U.S., and by Wednesday the national weather map is likely to feature a blanket of heat advisories from the National Weather Service. The combination of sultry dew points and scorching air temperatures approaching the century mark will help make this event a dangerous one from a public health perspective.
Cities including Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, and Nashville are likely to see at least three days with temperatures between 35 to 37.7 degrees Celsius, along with dew points — a measure of the amount of moisture in the air — above 21.1 degrees Celsius.
This is likely to create ideal conditions for setting hot overnight low temperature records, with the possibility that some all-time overnight low temperature records might be broken.
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When overnight lows fail to drop below a particular threshold, it’s harder for the human body to cool down and rest, elevating the health threat posed by a particular heat wave.
The sauna-like conditions forecast are the result of a sprawling and intense heat dome or zone of high pressure that will swell over the eastern-two thirds of the nation beginning Wednesday. Temperatures will soar as many as 5 to 11 degrees above normal. That may not sound like a lot, but considering it is hottest time of the year, the resulting heat will challenge records in some areas.
While a heat wave in mid-July is not unusual across the U.S., one of the most robust findings of climate change research is that the increase in average global surface temperatures is significantly raising the odds of extreme heat events and causing them to be more severe and longer-lasting. The most recent example of this was the heat wave that gripped Western Europe in late June, breaking numerous national all-time high temperature records.
With files from Jacob Dubé