Conspiracy theories are defined as an attempt to explain some event as a secret plan by a group of powerful people to do something unlawful or harmful. The US moon landings were a hoax, the Earth is actually flat and climate change is a fraud are just 3 examples of the vast amount of conspiracy theories out there. Recently, conspiracy theories have become a hot topic of discussion as celebrities, such as BoB, have tweeted about there belief that the Earth is actually flat.
“here n america, you can be anything, worship anything, & believe anything… EXCEPT the earth not being round… they’ll hang u 4 that 1,”
But is there actually any truth behind them? Dr David Robert Grimes, a researcher at Oxford University, has come up with a mathematical model to test whether they are true. This model plays upon the fact that the main criterion of success for a potential conspiracy is secrecy, which is largely based on the number of people who know about the plan. The model calculates the maximum amount of people required and therefore how long it would take for the plan to unravel.
Some of his calculations include:
- The hoax moon landings: 410,000 people, 3 years 8 months to reveal
- Climate Change fraud: 405,00 people, 3 years and 9 months to reveal
- Coverup of unsafe vaccinations: 22,000, 3 years and 2 months to reveal
- Suppressed cancer cure: 714,000, 3 years and 3 months to reveal
Additionally, Grimes looked at the maximum number of people who could take part in a conspiracy in order to maintain it:
- 5 years: 2,521 people
- More than a decade: less than 1,000 people
- A Century: fewer than 125
His results show that any conspiracy dependant on over a few hundred people rapidly collapses, therefore big science conspiracies would not be sustainable in the long run. Grimes also argues that although some theories are real (such as Watergate), conspiracies in scientific areas are particularly hard to sustain due to the scrutiny by fellow scientists: “Even if a small devious cohort of rogue scientists falsified data for climate change or attempted to cover up vaccine information, examination by other scientists would fatally undermine the nascent conspiracy. To circumvent this, the vast majority of scientists in a field would have to mutually conspire – a circumstance the model predicts is exceptionally unlikely to be viable.”
What do you think about this topic? Do you believe in any conspiracy theories? M x