Jaap Jamin worked at Jellinek Abuse Clinic for 36 years. Jamin saw heroin slowly disappear from an epidemic in the 1980s to the small role it now has. He also saw that cocaine and xtc appeared as commonly used drugs. How does the future of our drug use look like?
Tobacco goes out as an incentive, predicts drug addiction Wim van den Brink from Amsterdam UMC. By the middle of the twentieth century, about 80 percent of Dutch men voted, but it has fallen to 25 percent for both men and women. In the US and Australia, the proportion of smokers has already fallen below 20 percent.
Wim van den Brink "The question is whether smoking falls below 15 percent. Nicotine is a highly addictive drug. Of all who smoke a cigarette, 33 to 50 percent will depend. With heroin this is 20-30 percent. I expect tobacco to be seen in 2040 as heroin is now: as a means for losers.
»Alcohol is also less popular. Shortly after World War II, an adult in the Netherlands drank about 3 liters of pure alcohol a year. It rose to 9 liters in the eighties, but has since declined again to 7 liters. That some alcohol is healthy reveals a myth from recent studies. In fact, even a little alcohol is bad. That is why alcohol becomes less popular.»
Nevertheless, we see many popular resources now back in 2040, predicts drug researchers Ton Nabben from the Bonger Institute at the University of Amsterdam.
Ton Nabben «Cocaine and XTC are stayers. I also predict recurring hallucinogenic drugs, but they will be used in different ways. For example, people will take microdoser lsd. This is already happening in Silicon Valley. Employees use a small amount of LSD during working hours to become more creative. Long and intense travel, as the hippies did, creates space for creativity during the boss's time. Psychedelics will also be used for therapeutic applications. "
Wim van den Brink «Drugs no longer express themselves against the establishment, as in the seventies and seventies. Drugs are no longer a way to fight a generation battle. People are looking at it more realistically. Young people are now approaching drugs as an estimated risk. It has become something like skiing: fun, but also dangerous. So if you do, you need to put on a helmet. "
futurologist Peter van der Wel Believes that it is reasonable for older people to also microdose with LSD for their mental flexibility, but he also expects new medical inventions and increased unemployment to give a new impulse to the congestion for a dimming.
Peter van der WelThere are brain implants that mimic the effects of drugs. Such inventions are used initially to fight diseases, but afterwards they are used for fun purposes. If a brain implants allow people to get rid of their fear, such an implant is also used to elicit pleasure and enjoyment.
It makes abuse expert Van den Brink (66) thinking of "Star Trek "but unrealistic, he does not find the views. & # 39;I just do not know if I'm going through that period. "
Ton Nabben «With human brain implants, humanity comes close to the Holy Grail. If you imitate the effects of drugs with electrical signals, you will no longer be suffering from side effects. So you can induce the boiling and euphoric effect of cocaine in a club and then you can sleep well at home, without sleep medication that coke users often need. "
When people can constantly maximize pleasure and minimize pain, the question arises immediately: what does life mean then? Is an existence with only highlights fun, or is it ultimately bored?
Ton Nabben «Personally, I would not choose a life without low. It reminiscent of "Brave New World", the novel of Aldous Huxley where people take the drug Soma. It gave a good effect, but made people feel insensitive and indifferent to the world around them. Everyone will need to answer that question for themselves. "
According to Van der Wel, the futurologist is uncertain.
Peter van der Wel "Modern technology allows other people or technology to make decisions for each individual. If everyone gets a brain implant governed by the government or an algorithm, people lose control over their own emotional life. That moment seems far away, but we have to implement it the discussion. In 1975 everyone thought it was unthinkable that the iron curtain fell in 1989. "
The fight does not work
They are big words as ministers Ferdinand Grapperhaus of justice and security in August talked about the struggle against the Dutch drug economy. "I think this is one of the main priorities for me as minister to be very difficult here in the next few years against entering, "he said. He also finds it a shame that the Netherlands produces 19 billion euros of synthetic drugs each year, according to researchers from the police academy.