'Moderate' drought hits most of Texas, including Houston
Updated 9:47 am, Thursday, November 22, 2012
The Great Drought of 2011 is back.
Based upon the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than three-quarters of Texas, including the bulk of the greater Houston region, has returned to at least "moderate" drought conditions.
Half of Texas is in a "severe" or worse state of drought, scientists say.
"I don't like it one bit," said John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist.
The worst-one year drought in state history peaked in October of last year, when 99 percent of Texas fell into the "severe" category of drought, or worse.
A wetter than expected winter and spring of 2012 sent the blistering drought into something of a retreat. By May only about half of Texas was in some category of drought, and all of the Houston metro area remained drought-free until this fall. For the state as a whole, however, the drought never really ended.
And since mid-August, rain in Texas has become as scarce as a frolicsome fowl on Thanksgiving.
It's now possible Texas could end with its driest October and November period since 1950, says Victor Murphy, a climate specialist with the Southern Region Headquarters of the National Weather Service.
The statewide average rainfall for Texas this month should be about 0.5 inches vs. a normal of nearly 2 inches, he said. That would make the present October-November total about 1.3 to 1.4 inches, or about 30 percent of the state's normal of 4.6 inches.
The current October-November period may end up being drier than the same period in 2010, when 1.85 inches of rain fell. That launched the state in the great drought of 2011.
"This is not a good way to be moving into winter," Murphy said.
Also of concern is the latest winter outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which finds that without an El Niño pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean as expected, Texas can no longer look for a wetter-than-normal winter.
The greater Houston region, NOAA says, has an equal chance of above- or below-normal rainfall, and a 40 percent chance of having significantly above-normal temperatures this winter.
Last year's drought primarily affected Texas and Oklahoma, but this year it has spread to much of the midwestern United States.
More than 60 percent of the contiguous 48 states are gripped by some level of drought, erasing two weeks of improvement, the Drought Monitor reported, with widespread agricultural effects.
The drought has also curtailed barge traffic on the Mississippi River system, which includes Ohio and Missouri rivers, said Ann McCulloch of the American Waterways Operators in Arlington, Va. The low water has caused tugs to decrease the number of barges they push along the shipping lanes. The Army Corps of Engineers is scheduled to limit the amount of water in the Missouri River, which feeds the Mississippi near St. Louis, in the next few weeks as part of its annual river management program.
The water is so low at St. Louis that the reduction may expose rocks in the channel and further tie up barge traffic there.
The short-term forecast does not appear to offer a substantial respite for the greater Houston area.
According to the National Weather Service, a series of cold fronts should move through the region during the next week, first on Friday, then next Tuesday and then next Thursday or so. But at this time, Houston is not expected to get the drenching showers it needs.
Bloomberg News contributed to this report.