Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied.
Malaria transmission is influenced by a complex interplay of factors including climate, socio-economic, environmental factors and interventions. Malaria control efforts across Africa have shown a mixed impact. Climate driven factors may play an increasing role with climate change. Efforts to strengthen routine facility-based monthly malaria data collection across Africa create an increasingly valuable data source to interpret burden trends and monitor control programme progress. A better understanding of the association with other climatic and non-climatic drivers of malaria incidence over time and space may help guide and interpret the impact of interventions.
A major health burden in Cameroon is malaria, a disease that is sensitive to climate, environment and socio-economic conditions, but whose precise relationship with these drivers is still uncertain. An improved understanding of the relationship between the disease and its drivers, and the ability to represent these relationships in dynamic disease models, would allow such models to contribute to health mitigation and adaptation planning.
It is important to note a recent report on the predicted impact of climate change on malaria in West Africa, by Teresa K. Yamana, Arne Bomblies and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir. 2016 in the Journal Nature, entitled "Climate change unlikely to increase malaria burden in West Africa." doi:10.1038/nclimate3085