The report is the second of three being made this year
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The first, "Climate Change
2001: The Scientific Basis" was released on Jan. 22. The latest report
is entitled, "Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability."
The third report, "Mitigation of Climate Change," is due later this
year. Full texts of the two reports issued thus far are available via the link
above to "IPCC full reports on climate change."
Changes in the latest report noted in the USA:
- Tree swallows are building nests earlier in the year.
- A western species of butterfly is moving farther up the West Coast and higher
- Flowers in Wisconsin are budding earlier in the spring.
As the planet warms even more, the report says, humans,
too, are likely to feel the heat. Countries in southern Africa are likely to
have even less fresh water. Farming in the Midwestern USA will probably suffer.
Higher sea levels and more intense cyclones are likely to displace millions
of people in Asia.
A report released in January by the same panel said the
average surface temperature of the Earth rose 1 degree during the 20th century
and could rise 2.6 to 10.4 degrees from 1990 to 2100.
The January report said it's likely that "most" of the
warming since the 1950s is "due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations."
Greenhouse gases, which have built up to unnaturally high
levels in the Earth's atmosphere, trap heat. They include carbon dioxide, which
is emitted when fossil fuels are burned, and other gases produced by human activity.
The sponsor of both reports, the United Nation's Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, carries enormous weight with governments around the
world. Previous editions of the report, which is produced every five years,
have often been cited at the international negotiations over a treaty to control
More than 160 nations agreed to such a treaty, called the
Kyoto Protocol, in 1997. However, talks over the treaty collapsed in December.
Those talks are to resume this summer, but President Bush
said on the campaign trail that he opposes the Kyoto Protocol. His administration
has yet to fill positions key to directing global-warming policy.
Environmentalists hope the new findings will coax the White
House into taking a strong stance on global warming. "I hope they really study
this report," said Jennifer Morgan of the World Wildlife Fund.
Some scientists argue the planet may be warming naturally.
The new report doesn't touch on that argument, nor does it explicitly tie the
changes in natural patterns to warming caused by humans.
However, several scientists said it's not hard to connect
Others criticized the newer report for relying on what
they say are simplistic estimates of how much the Earth will warm.
"No one says we can predict the weather next year," says
Roger Pielke Sr., an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University. "So
why do we think we have better skills for 50 years in the future?"