It’s about time we instituted a true Clean Energy Standard that promotes all low-carbon energy rather than continuing with a Renewable Energy Standard that is narrowly-focused on wind and solar. If you care about climate change, and don’t just have an ideological stand on a particular energy source, then you know that we need all low-carbon sources as fast as possible to have any hope of reigning in the most adverse environmental effects of burning fossil fuels.
Along with an increasing abundance of gas, coal and oil, the present focus on renewables has stalled the effort to lower carbon emissions worldwide. Although global economic conditions have caused them to level off this past year, global carbon emissions have simply not declined in any significant way (see figure).
In fact, emissions are projected to increase because coal is still the first choice for developing countries. Coal is the easiest generation to install and doesn’t require pipelines or a sophisticated electric grid, making it the fastest growing energy source in Asia and Africa.
Emissions are certainly not declining fast enough to keep overall warming to 2.5°C. The decline in carbon emissions needs to be at least 5% per year from 2016 to 2040, and if we can’t meet that immediately, then they have to decline by 9% per year between 2020 and 2040, an even more unlikely goal (see figure below).
Almost every leading climate scientist, and even some activists, have echoed this call for an all-out expansion of every low-carbon source as fast as possible. After we get carbon emissions under control, then we can debate about the best mix for the distant future. Even though nuclear is in the process of becoming renewable, we can’t wait for that meme to work its way through society before we take strong action to address climate change.
And there is no silver bullet. Increased efficiency has slowed the growth of energy demand, but not reversed it. Storage is costly and difficult to implement. The only way to get rid of oil is to replace internal combustion engines with fully electric cars and generate 5 trillion kWhs of additional low-carbon generation to charge them every year. The unavailability of sufficient steel prevents wind from replacing just coal, since that would take 10 billion tons of steel. The total annual global production of steel is only 1.6 billion tons.
One of the best ways to implement any of these changes politically and economically is to change the Renewable Energy Standard to a Clean Energy Standard. Or to institute a severe carbon tax. The latter seems to be impossible to enact these days, so changing to a Clean Energy Standard is probably our best shot. But either way, the focus becomes decreasing carbon and not promoting specific technologies.
This appears to be the recent thinking of the State of New York. Governor Andrew Cuomo directed the New York State Department of Public Service to develop a Clean Energy Standard to meet the State’s policy goals of generating 50% of electricity from renewable resources, including hydro, by 2030, while also maintaining existing nuclear power plants so that the carbon savings provided by these plants are maintained. The plan also seeks to eliminate coal generation by 2020.
Currently, New York gets 30% of its electricity from nuclear and 26% from renewables, making the per-capita power greenhouse emissions from New York just one fourth of the nation’s average. The new Clean Energy Standard proposes the following:
- increase renewable electricity supply to achieve the “50% renewable by 2030” goal,
- support construction of new renewable generation in New York State,
- prevent closure of emissions-free nuclear facilities, and
- promote the progress of energy market reforms.
Utilities and energy service companies would be required to procure a percentage of their electricity from three tiers, or categories, of energy resources: existing renewables, existing nuclear, or new renewables.
The Department of Public Service also proposes a requirement that all utilities and energy service companies procure a share of Zero Emission Credits (ZECs) attributable to generation from qualified nuclear facilities to maintain the State’s current largest source of zero-emission electricity, which is nuclear power. Premature closure of nuclear generating plants in response to short-term economic pressures and warped deregulated markets would increase New York State’s reliance on fossil fuel-generating plants. Carbon emissions would increase more than 15 million metric tons each year, effectively wiping out all the progress made with renewables in the State and setting New York back fifteen years.
The proposed Clean Energy Standard’s Zero-Emissions Credits are a low-cost way to protect this much clean energy. Zero-Emissions Credits are similar to, but smaller than, renewable’s federal Production Tax Credit and state subsidies. As described by environmental activist Michael Shellenberger, “Zero-Emissions Credits would have a price cap of $17.48/MWh, rising to $29.15 per MWh in 2029, when the provision expires. Renewables get a total of $45/MWh from the state and the feds.”
An associated Cost Study by the State estimates that, even with historically low natural gas prices, New York can meet its clean energy targets with less than 1% impact on electricity bills or less than a dollar a month for the typical residential customer. It also estimates a net positive benefit of $1.8 billion over the next several years resulting mostly from the health and environmental benefits associated with reduced carbon emissions.
There are also other significant economic benefits identified from enacting a Clean Energy Standard. For example, the new support for existing nuclear plants would protect 25,000 jobs, $3 billion in economic activity, and $145 million in State tax revenues.
In recognizing the value of zero-emissions power, the proposed Clean Energy Standard and Zero-Emissions Credits will guarantee that the State of New York retains its leadership on climate change.
Hopefully, other states will follow New York’s example.
Dr. James Conca is an expert on energy, nuclear and dirty bombs, a planetary geologist, and a professional speaker. Follow him on Twitter @jimconca and see his book at Amazon.com