By the age of 18, the in-sample cumulative arrest rate was between 15.9% and 26.8%. At age 23, it ran between 25.3% and 41.4%, reported Robert Brame, PhD, from the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, and colleagues, in the January 2012 issue of Pediatrics.
When the researchers assumed that missing cases were at least as likely to have been arrested as the observed cases, the in-sample age-23 prevalence was between 30.2% and 41.4%. The greatest growth in the cumulative prevalence occurred between late adolescence and early adulthood.
The NLSY is a prospective household study including those who were between 12 and 16 years when the study was undertaken in 1997. Since then, 11 more surveys had been conducted through 2008 and released to the public.
Of the 7,355 youths who had self-reported arrests in, 6,748 (92%) participated in the NLSY 1997. To account for missing reports, they assumed that the missing cases were at least as likely as the known cases to have been arrested, or missing at random (MAR).
The authors noted that criminal behavior is a risk factor for adverse health, social, academic, occupational, economic outcomes. Their findings raise questions about pediatricians' intervention opportunities and their consequences.
They found a growth in the cumulative arrest prevalence. beginning at around age 12 when the MAR estimate was near zero. By age of 18, the MAR rate was 17.8 and then appears to flatten out over the remaining years.
The researchers compared their findings to a 1965 survey for the Institute of Defense analysis (Task Force Report: Science and Technology 1967: 216-228). The 1965 MAR estimates were higher than those in the current analysis through the age of 15. From 16 to 18, the estimates between the two studies were comparable.
In people ages 19 to 23, the 1965 estimates increased at a much slower pace then those derived from the NLSY. By age 23, the 1997 figure of 30.2% was much higher than the 22% foreseen in 1965. The earlier estimate lies outside the 95% confidence interval for the NLSY-based estimate.
The researchers noted a limitation to their study was that they did not know the confidence intervals for the 1965 estimates, and the underlying assumption of the MAR estimate cannot be tested. Also, the arrest data was self-reported which may have limited accuracy and truthfulness.
"Using a contemporary U.S. sample of adolescents and young adults, we estimated the cumulative arrest prevalence through the age of 23," the authors wrote. "The results suggest a substantial increase in the cumulative prevalence of arrest since the 1960s."
The authors pointed out there is plenty of research published in Pediatrics regarding delinquency and problem social behaviors, such as drinking, drug use, and abuse.
But "until now there simply was no contemporary national prevalence estimate of the risk of a criminal arrest for American youth," they said."This is in spite of the fact that having an arrest record is known to be an important risk marker for violence involvement, violent victimizations, and an unhealthy and unsafe lifestyle."
Pediatricians should be able to identify early risk factors for delinquency and play a pivotal role in early intervention, they added.
The authors noted no relevant financial relationships to disclose.
- Reviewed by Robert Jasmer, MD Associate Clinical Professor of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco and Dorothy Caputo, MA, RN, BC-ADM, CDE, Nurse Planner