Publication Date:Jul 01, 2011
Source:Kellogg School of Management
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This case looks at an important business task: forecasting a new product. The case can be used to teach finance, marketing (new product introduction), and healthcare strategy. The product is one of Amgen's most important new products: denosumab. On the surface, the case is fairly easy; students simply have to do some simple mathematical calculations. However, the challenges of forecasting quickly become apparent; every forecast depends on some critical assumptions, and the answer can vary dramatically.
Highlight the importance of forecasting as a business task. Give students the opportunity to create a forecast, using logical assumptions to generate an answer. Illustrate how dramatically forecasts can vary. Demonstrate why sensitivity analysis and customer understanding are both critical when trying to forecast a new product launch.
Forecasting; Marketing organization; Patents
- Geographic: California
- Industry: Biotechnology
- Industry: Health care services
- Industry: Pharmaceuticals