The goal of limiting the rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels will be lost as early as 2026 if the Paris Agreement is not implemented, according to an analysis by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
"Our research shows the proximity of the undesirable level of overheating and should be taken as a wake-up call for governments and as a catalyst for strong action," said Benjamin Henli of the University of Melbourne in Australia.
The Paris Climate Agreement, signed in December 2015, obliges states to maintain the temperature "well below the 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial levels and to continue efforts to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees ".
Henley and his colleague Andrew King used climate models to predict what would happen if the Paris agreement was not met and the emissions continued unabated and they discovered that the Earth would experience a rapid rise in temperature.
The main reason for this is the steady rise in greenhouse gas emissions that warm the planet. A second important reason is the influence of the Inter-Central Pacific Ocean, a meteorological phenomenon of circular temperatures of the sea surface that causes heat or cooling in the atmosphere worldwide.
This phenomenon is similar to the Decade Pacific Tidal, a phenomenon that occurs in a smaller part of the Pacific with a different hot and cold phase periodicity.
This oscillation has been in the cooling phase for more than a decade, explaining to a certain extent the partial downfall of global warming in the first years of this century, causing a false sense of security, according to Henley.
This phenomenon is now going through a hot phase, contributing to record temperatures in 2015 and 2016. This phase may last for one or two decades, resulting in a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius being lost between 2024 and 2029, According to the researchers. Otherwise, the goal will be lost five years later.
The analysis of the researchers assumes that little or no action will be taken to reduce emissions. The Paris agreement, however, includes national emission reduction commitments that will keep the temperature by 0.2 degrees Celsius lower than projected for 2030, and even lower then.