Stability not unexpected as wolf numbers fall and hunting permits just north of Park are reduced-
In January I heard there would be no elk count this year because the lack of snow made counting pretty much impossible. I’m glad the amount of snow increased because these numbers are important. Gaps in the data are harmful.
Wolves were introduced in 1995 shortly after the highest elk population ever recorded on the Northern Range in 1993-94 (19,045 elk). Unfortunately, no elk count was made during the very severe winter of 1995-6 and the next year too. When the count resumed, the elk population was well down (13,400 in Nov. 1997).
I think the real (wolf x hunter x grizzly bear) effect on elk should date from when they resumed the count. Unfortunately, it is not known how many perished in the severe winter and the year just afterword. Interestingly, the elk count taken 3 months before the first wolves came back had already dropped from 19,045 to 16,791. This shows that 19,045 was a spike and should never be used as a starting point.
I think the restored wolf population did probably overshoot, but it has now died back naturally rather than through human interference.
My impression is that the present elk and wolf population on the Northern Range is pretty favorable, although these numbers can never be stable over any long period time. Nature has too many variables. At any rate, the elk herd is strong and healthy. The vegetation on the Northern Range is recovering. Pronghorn, beaver, and, I think bighorn, are increasing. These things were part of the goals of the wolf restoration in the Park. Of course, the Park is always changing. For example, like almost everywhere else, the pines are being killed of by the bark beetle. The Park’s near future will be a landscape even more open than today.
Here is the elk count news release from the Northern Yellowstone Cooperative Wildlife Working Group
Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Parks – Contact: Kelly Profitt 406-994-4042
National Park Service – Contact: Doug Smith 307-344-2242
U.S. Forest Service – Contact: Dan Tyers 406-848-7375
U.S. Geological Survey- Contact: Paul Cross 406-994-6908
March 17, 2010
News Release. Winter Count Shows Northern Elk Herd Numbers Remain Stable
A lot of folks seem to forget that the Northern Range elk herd is not the only elk herd in Yellowstone Park. There are about 8 others at least partially in the Park, and they are not are going in the same direction. Most significant is the Jackson Hole elk herd which summers partly in the Park. The Jackson elk herd is categorized into four geographic groups. They are southern Yellowstone, the Teton Wilderness, the Gros Ventre and Grand Teton National Park.
It’s population is close to 12,000 and is stable despite a lot of wolf packs. It is actually 6% above Wyoming Game and Fish’s “objectives” size. Recently, however, Wyoming Game and Fish has begun to break it down into herd sub-units and set objectives for them too. A lot of folks find this both offensive and unworkable. It is offensive because setting objectives tell us that wild animals (elk) are being treated like livestock. The smaller the livestock (elk) unit, the more hands on kind of management it takes to meet these objectives because natural variations don’t match up with politically created boundaries.
Use of sub-units also lets people “cherry pick” numbers and say things like, well maybe elk numbers are up or stable, but they are down where I hunt. Or they might just ignore subunits that match their political agenda. For example, much has been made that the calf to cow ratio in the Upper Gros Ventre is only 13 calves per 100 cow elk. It is not mentioned that in the lower Gros Ventre the ratio is 41 calves to 100 cows.
Note: I think Idaho Fish and Game does the same thing — they highlight hunting units where numbers are down and never mention those where they are up despite a lot of wolves.