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By Lee J. Nelson
Complex flow theories are used to describe and predict behavior by Traffic Modeling Algorithms. Again, when the actual situation departs from projected conditions, an incident is proclaimed.
Three effectiveness criteria are employed in assessing and cross-comparing performance of incident detection algorithms. All are indicators of relative accuracy:
Detection rate, customarily expressed as a percentage, is the ratio of reported incidents to all incidents, occurring over a specified interval;
False alarm rate, also expressed as a percentage, is the number of erroneous warnings versus all decisions made by the system under non-incident conditions during a fixed time period; and,
Mean time to detect is the average amount of time for a system to ascertain and advise of a legitimate incident.