An encouraging trend, or just an indication that efforts to prevent opioid-related deaths have significantly improved.
Those competing conclusions come from a recent state Department of Public Health report showing about a 5 percent drop in the number of fatal opioid overdoses in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016.
According the DPH's data, there were 978 confirmed and estimated opioid deaths from January through June, a decrease from the 1,031 in the first half of 2016. It's the first year-over-year decrease in some time, though the rise in the overdose death rate has declined over the last several years.
It's gone from a 40 percent increase from 2013 to 2014, to 17 percent from 2015 to 2016. Numbers can often tell you what you'd like to believe, but nonetheless, any indication that the epidemic is in decline constitutes reason for tempered optimism.
Gov. Charlie Baker sought to acknowledge the good news with this statement: "The opioid and heroin epidemic has brought tragedy to far too many families, and while the commonwealth has a lot of work to do, there are some signs of progress in this report."
The DPH report appears to validate numbers disclosed earlier this month by district attorneys in Middlesex and Norfolk counties that showed fatal-overdose decreases of 14 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
But even the most optimistic spin of this report still begs the question: Are fewer people actually putting themselves in a position to die of a fatal overdose, or are emergency room doctors, public-safety personnel and other first responders just doing a better job of saving lives?
There's no doubt the professionals would agree the introduction and increasing availability Narcan -- an overdose-reversing drug -- has played a major role in the decreasing numbers. When administered properly, substance abusers gain a new lease on life.
However another study recently released by the DPH calls into question whether ongoing treatment and education efforts have begun to turn the tide. The study found non-fatal overdoses increased by about 200 percent between 2011 and 2015.
So without knowing whether non-fatal overdoses continued to accelerate in 2016 and the first half of 2017, it's difficult to assign the reason for the slight decline in overdose deaths.
We do know the introduction of the powerful synthetic opioid fentanyl has contributed to this epidemic. Evidence of fentanyl in the systems of fatal-overdose victims continues to rise, hitting 81 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the report.
Number-crunching aside, there's no question that opioid-overdose deaths have declined through the first half of 2017. And if Narcan turns out to be the reason, the drug has bought time for addicts to seek treatment and fight hard to quit this destructive habit.