The World Economic Forum has warned about the "dark side" of
connectivity, arguing that we understand the benefits of the
internet better than we understand the risks, in a report
identifying global risks for 2012.
The report -- Global Risks 2012 -- surveyed 469 experts and
industry leaders, asking them to identify their risks for 2012 and
beyond. It warns that economic imbalances and social inequality
risk reversing the gains of globalisation. Respondents worry that
further economic shocks and social upheaval could roll back the
progress globalisation has brought and feel that the world's
institutions are ill-equipped to cope with today's interconnected,
rapidly evolving risks.
The critical infrastructure that underpins our daily lives --
such as energy, transport, information and communications
technologies -- increasingly depends on hyperconnected online
systems. While in the past you might have needed significant
resources to destabilise geopolitical or corporate powers it is
much easier to do so today by skilled individuals who can act
anonymously through networked computer systems.
The internet has transformed business, personal relationships
and the popular uprisings, as we saw in the Arab Spring. However,
new ways of interaction bring new vulnerabilities. "Today, there is
a sense that we understand the benefits of the internet more fully
than we understand the risks," the authors write.
Virtual world terrorism, crime and war have thus far been less
damaging than their physical world equivalents, but cyber security
could become an enormous challenge for governments and companies.
The report does, however, recognise that most of the research into
cyber threats has been funded by those in the business of selling
The report argues that a new paradigm for ensuring a health
digital space must emerge, where online security is recognised as a
public good and as such should be protected.
"Critical systems failure", or the risk that a single
vulnerability could trigger cascading failures of critical
infrastructures, might be unlikely but is a potentially enormous
crime was flagged up as a leading cause of this sort of
failure. However, this was rated as a bigger risk by non-technology
respondents than it was by the technology experts.
While some virtual attacks are about petty crime or mischief
making, others can shut down critical systems or even potentially
trigger physical armed warfare (see: Stuxnet). A Stuxnet-esque virus could conceivably cause a
meltdown at a nuclear power plant or turn off oil and gas
pipelines. Similarly cyber espionage cases -- such as GhostNet --
have been used to spy on companies or ministries, monitoring
keystrokes, documents and even the computer's camera and
Meanwhile hacktivists such as Anonymous have severely damaged the reputations of
organisations such as the US technology security firm HBGary
Federal after it claimed to have information about the members'
identities. Anonymous took action by hacking the company's network and
publishing 40,000 company emails, taking down their phone system
and hijacking the CEO's Twitter account.
Another area of concern is the shift towards " the internet of things". By 2020 there are expected to be
as many as 31 billion devices connected to the web. There are clear
benefits from this interconnectedness (think smart meters, mhealth)
but then these devices are at risk from hacking. The connectivity
allows for an amplification effect on attacks that may have only
presented a risk to your PC before.
A big challenge is to find a balance between the scaremongering
online security vendors who have an interest in exaggerating the
threats of cybercrime and the victims of cyber crime who often
remain silent out of embarrassment. This makes it exceptionally
hard to get an accurate picture of the risk of such
Meanwhile, organisations need to employ smart hackers who can
identify weaknesses in systems before they are found by those with
criminal intentions. Initiatives of this sort include Facebook's
"bug bounty" programme which rewards individuals for finding a
We also need to better understand why the social norms that
prevent certain actions in the physical world are less powerful in
the virtual world, and how to change this.
In addition to technological risks, the report also looked at
economic, environmental, geopolitical and societal risks. You
can download the full Global Risks report here.