A closer look at November Atlantic hurricanesby John Nelander
Here’s a stroll down hurricane lane and a look at the historical record for November tropical storms. But first, an update.
The weather system that was spinning near 35 degrees north over the weekend is headed to the North Atlantic graveyard, unnamed. For a while on Sunday, it looked like the National Hurricane Center was close to declaring it Subtropical Storm Ida, but it was downhill from there.
As some forecasters predicted yesterday, attention has turned to a new surface low off the coast of Panama. Officially, the NHC is giving this area a 30 percent to 50 percent chance of becoming Ida over the next two days.
Several scenarios, based on computer models, are taking shape. One takes it west over Central America and into the Pacific, where it will no longer be a concern for us. But several others have it meandering north, either making landfall on, or brushing the Yucatan Peninsula.
If it ever makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, we should have a better handle on whether it continues on toward the northern Gulf Coast, as some models have hinted. Fortunately, even if this system becomes Ida, it is likely to remain fairly weak.
November storms are hardly a rarity in the Atlantic basin, but there have been few impacts on South Florida. Over the last 10 years, there have been 17 named November storms in the Atlantic – seven of them in the very active seasons of 2003 and 2005.
The last one during this time frame that had potential for South Florida was Hurricane Michelle in 2001. It blew up in the western Caribbean on October 29, and hit Cuba, threatening the Florida Keys. Instead, it hooked east and dissipated rather quickly over the first few days of November.
Between 1989 and 1999, there were eight named November storms in the Atlantic. The most significant was Hurricane Mitch, a long lived storm born on October 22. Mitch became a monster Category 5 that caused more than 9,000 deaths in Central America. It almost made it to the Pacific Coast, then turned north, hooked across the Yucatan and moved northeast across the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall in South Florida on November 5 as a tropical storm.
In 1994, Hurricane Gordon was tracked between November 8 and November 21. It impacted the Florida peninsula as a tropical storm, moved into the Atlantic off the coast of Virginia, then doubled back toward Florida, making a second landfall as a depression.
The most significant November hurricane to affect Florida in the last 25 years was Hurricane Kate in 1985.
Kate developed into tropical storm just north of Puerto Rico on November 15, brushed the north coast of Cuba as a category 2 on November 20, and achieved Category 3 status in Gulf. It finally made landfall in Florida Panhandle as strong Category 1 on Nov. 21.
It was the latest-forming major hurricane ever in the Atlantic.