NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH, N.C.—The calm ocean view seems to lull Todd Putney into a trance as gentle waves wash over his feet and a rising tide slowly consumes his fold-up chair.
It’s a hypnotizing sight, one of the reasons Putney decided last year to purchase a beachfront property here. Interest rates were low, prices were reasonable. The timing was right.
“I always wanted a beach house,” said Putney. “At my age, I figured I couldn’t find a better opportunity.”
Yet the ocean’s powerful allure masks a reality that has put this tiny coastal community — and others like it around the world — at considerable risk. Accelerated sea-level rise and growing storm intensity, two widely studied effects of climate change, are giving the oceans a powerful edge in the age-old battle against continental shorelines.
Days after Hurricane Joaquin terrorized the Atlantic, the evidence is all around. Joaquin never got close to the North Carolina coast, but it still contributed to a storm surge that combined with unusually high tides, strong winds and heavy rain to hammer Topsail.
Staircases connecting properties to the beach were ripped away, or left dangling in mid-air. In some places, water breached the dune that protects the waterfront, flooding the main road and several inland properties. Damage and debris can be seen all around.
A study last year by the Risky Business Project, led by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former U.S. treasury secretary Henry Paulson, estimated that annual economic costs related to sea level rise and climate-fuelled hurricane activity could increase by up to $10.8 billion (U.S.) within only 15 years along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf of Mexico.
That may be just scratching the surface. If Florida — where 75 per cent of the population lives on the coast — is any indication, the threat has largely been ignored by financial markets. Routinely flooded roads and basements and warnings from scientists have yet to suck air from Miami’s $35 billion real estate bubble.
“This is the biggest challenge we’re probably going to face in the physical world,” said oceanographer John Englander, author of High Tide on Main Street, which warned of the coastal crisis a week before Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on New York and New Jersey shores.
Englander expects that within a decade, perhaps as early as five years from now, awareness of sea level impacts on coastal real estate will spook the marketplace. Insurance premiums will spike, making mortgages unattainable for some. Property values will plunge, along with local tax revenues, making it harder for communities to adapt to new realities.
“People think this is an environmental issue, but it’s not. It’s an economic issue,” he said. “The people who own lots of real estate and finance it, they haven’t really thought this through yet.”
Those that have are quietly selling, Englander added. “They don’t want to make noise because they want to protect their property values. They want to sell high before the market notices.”
In North Topsail, officials have pegged the cost of Hurricane Joaquin’s destructive pass-by at $15.5 million (U.S.), though the final tally is likely to be more. The town is hoping the Federal Emergency Management Agency will pick up the tab.
Robert Young, who studies coastal development as a geosciences professor at Western Carolina University, is offended that public funds are routinely granted to bail out private property owners.
“These folks are interested in leveraging as much public money as they can so they don’t have to put their own money into it,” said Young. “It’s creating this giant moral hazard, where we’re using public funds to encourage people to keep doing the wrong thing.”
FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program, which subsidizes insurance for properties in flood-prone areas, is more than $24 billion (U.S.) in debt thanks to Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy. The Biggert-Waters Act of 2012 was an attempt to phase in premium increases so they better reflected the risks, but Congress neutered the law two years later.
Young said American tax and insurance payers are supporting real estate values for relatively few beachfront properties. At the local level, communities like North Topsail shovel municipal dollars from general revenue into never-ending beach restoration projects.
“Mark my words,” said Young. “North Topsail officials are going to drive that community into default. They’re borrowing money to pay for beach projects, yet they won’t raise taxes on themselves because, Good Lord, this is America and nobody wants to pay taxes anymore.”
A 2010 report from North Carolina’s Coastal Resources Commission (CRC) warned that sea levels could rise by one metre within 100 years, which is in line with mainstream climate research. Worried such a forecast would hurt property values and raise construction costs, coastal developers and property owners convinced state legislators to ban use of the research in policy.
Comedian Stephen Colbert responded with mockery on his late-night show. “If your science gives you a result that you don’t like, pass a law saying the result is illegal.”
The CRC was forced to redo its report, this time looking only 30 years out and warning of a less menacing 20-centimetre rise. New CRC member Larry Baldwin, one of the original report’s biggest critics, said it’s “up for debate” whether climate change is fuelling sea-level rise.
The projections aren’t consistent with historical data, he added. “What if you’re wrong? Then you’ve devastated the local economy.” Scientists point out that historical data doesn’t capture the accelerated melting of Greenland and Antarctic, or ocean warming.
Back on the beach, Tom Putney is still relaxing in his red beach chair. He said climate risks didn’t influence his decision to purchase property in North Topsail, even though his first home was destroyed 26 years ago when Hurricane Hugo swept through South Carolina.
The view is great, he said, adding that the $3,000 a week he earns from renting during vacation season easily covers his $11,000 a year insurance premium.
“I don’t mind paying for the risk,” said Putney. “My bet is that I won’t have to rebuild (if disaster hits). But if that happens, it happens.”
This article is part of a series produced in partnership by the Toronto Star and Tides Canada to address a range of pressing climate issues in Canada leading up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, December 2015. Tides Canada is supporting this partnership to increase public awareness and dialogue around the impacts of climate change on Canada’s economy and communities. The Toronto Star has full editorial control and responsibility to ensure stories are rigorously edited in order to meet its editorial standards.
Explaining the effects of climate change on real estate
Why is sea-level rise accelerating?
Sea levels have always changed independent of human activity, at least until fossil fuels became the engine of our global economy. Burning fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases that trap more heat in the lower atmosphere. Since pre-industrial times the planet has already warmed 0.8 degrees C. This warming is increasing the rate of ice melt in Greenland, Antarctica and many of the world’s glaciers, adding more water to our oceans.
In addition, we know that heat causes liquids to expand. Much of the heat being trapped in our atmosphere is being absorbed into oceans, causing the volume of water on Earth’s surface to thermally expand.
These two factors together explain why average global sea level has increased about 20 centimetres since 1880, and why it will continue to rise at a faster rate.
How high are sea levels expected to go?
Conclusions vary from 60 centimetres to more than two metres by the end of this century if we continue to burn fossil fuels at current rates. A recent study led by former NASA scientist James Hansen estimated three metres. One metre, however, is thought to be a likely scenario within the climate science community.
Beyond 2100 is more difficult to forecast. Even if society stopped burning all fossil fuels tomorrow, a recent study concluded that we’ve already committed to 1.6 metres of sea-level rise for centuries to come.
Property at Risk
“If we continue on our current path, by 2050 between $66 billion and $106 billion worth of existing coastal property will likely be below sea level nationwide, with $238 billion to $507 billion worth of property below sea level by 2100,” according to a 2014 report called Risky Business, a research initiative led by former New York City major Michael Bloomberg and Hank Paulson, former U.S. treasury secretary.
What’s the long-term worst outcome?
The same study, published in September in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAC), calculated that “unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3 to 9.9 metres.”
It’s important to keep in mind, however, that by “eventual” the authors don’t really know how long such a scenario might play out. Could be a couple of centuries; could be a couple of millennia. Still, in the United States alone, it would mean at some point up to 1,825 municipalities and 20 million people could be directly affected by sea-level rise if no efforts are made to reduce global greenhouse-gas emissions. The economic disruption would be immense, and other countries would face a similar future.
Globally, land currently home to 760 million people could eventually be waterlogged, according to non-profit research organization Climate Central. It found that cities in China, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia are at the highest risk.
What’s the best outcome?
The good news is that sea-level rise, while accelerating, is still moving slowly enough for cities and nations to plan and adapt, and in doing so, build more resilient and climate-friendly buildings and infrastructure.
There is also a strong chance of avoiding worst-case scenarios by reducing — and eventually phasing out — the use of fossil fuels. According to the PNAC study, “Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.”
Extended globally, this means action today will help hundreds of millions of people and thousands of cities down the road, while reducing economic disruption. In fact, investment required to transition energy systems and make communities more resilient is expected to stimulate economic growth.
New York City’s $20 billion climate resiliency plan, established in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, is an example of a job-creating investment aimed at reducing the longer-term impacts — and costs — of future storms and sea level threats.
What do coastal communities face now?
Many communities, from Alaska to Kiribati, have already been forced to relocate. Coastal communities along the Atlantic Coast, from Charlottetown to Miami, are also feeling the pressure. Sea levels there are rising faster than the global average.
For low-lying communities, sea-level rise isn’t the only challenge. Warming ocean waters are fuelling more intense hurricanes, which bring high winds, rain and strong storm surges. Combined with sea-level rise, the potential for flooding and property damage is amplified.
“One plus one can equal three,” said Radley Horton, co-author of a five-city study released in September that looked at the interaction of sea-level rise and storm surges from hurricanes. The study found that the two hazards, when taken together, could cause coastal flooding events to shoot up several hundredfold by 2100.