We tweeted a question yesterday (#CANADAresist) asking people to guess which countries use the most antimicrobials in animals and which ones are expected to increase the most by 2030. Antibiotic use in animals is moving (and in some countries, very hard to hit) target, but a 2015 study (Van Boeckel et al, Global Trends in Antimicrobial Use in Food Animals) has some answers.
The dubious winners: China, USA, Brazil, India and Germany.
- Those make sense, as large countries with large food animal production systems.
Predicting the future of antibiotic use is hard, and hopefully the 2030 estimates will be high because of antimicrobial stewardship programs, but the authors predicted that the list in 2030 will be: China, USA, Brazil, India, Mexico
- Again, those make sense. Lots of people. Lots of farms. Growing populations and economies.
Another interesting number is the predicted relative increase. I suspect most of us wouldn’t have guessed these.
- Here, Indonesia takes the lead, followed by Myanmar, Nigeria, Peru and the Philippines.
Data like these are just more examples of why antimicrobial stewardship programs need to develop and need to take on an international tone. Trying to attack a complex problem in isolation (either looking only at one country or looking only at animals or humans) can’t be the answer. Complex problems need complex solutions.