Latest underwater anomalies from the TAO/TRITON agency suggest a building of cooler than normal waters below the surface. This comes as the atmosphere does not react favorably in the presence of an El Nino.
Waters as cool as 2 degrees below normal are being measured approximately 200 meters below the surface, outperforming that of the El Nino, which is being clocked at 1 degree above normal. Common sense says that such an abundance of cool water is suggesting something is happening, whether it is recognized or not. At the moment, I have a fine time believing that these colder waters will rise to the surface and overtake the El Nino to make for a neutral-ENSO winter. This body of cooler waters has been strengthening over the past while, as the El Nino actually takes it down a notch.
For those wondering, if this were a La Nina (NOT saying it is), this would be more east based, borderline central based. However, I am not nearly defining this as a La Nina. It is what it is: a cool body of water below a warm body of water.
This is one of the tricky parts of forecasting: Do you judge a book by its cover, or do you look deeper into what's really going on? I, in an attempt to give you the best information, believe that these cooler waters are weakening the El Nino. I do not anticipate an El Nino to be around by the time January rolls around. I base this on an unfavorable atmospheric response thus far, as well as this new cold body of water that, should it be on the surface, would be classified as a strong La Nina.