Anardovich S. S., Rush E. A. Metody otsenki riskov i prognozirovaniye stsenariyev razvitiya chrezvychaynykh situatsiy pri zheleznodorozhnykh perevozkakh [Risk assessment methods and forecasting emergency development scenarios for railway transportation]. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2020, Vol. 65, No. 1, pp. 66–75. 10.26731/1813-9108.2020.1(65).66-75
The need to develop new methods of risk analysis in emergency situations is due to the large number of accidents and the severity of their implications, especially during the transport of dangerous cargo by rail. The article explores modern methods of risk analysis of emergency situations and presents the results of their comparative evaluation. Traditional and new approaches to ensuring the safety of rail transportation are considered. The effectiveness of the use of GIS technologies to analyze the risk of emergency situations and predict their consequences is established. The applicability of a number of methods for assessing the risks of emergency situations and the standards of acceptable risk of emergency situations for solving specific problems is considered. The paper presents main approaches to proving the safety of transport and assessing environmental risks. It was noted that ensuring the efficiency and safety of multimodal transportation requires an integrated approach in the field of risk assessment, taking into account the characteristics of transport, the geography of transportation, and administrative and legal restrictions. A parametric approach using rank estimates is presented as the most effective and affordable. It is proposed to use a parametric approach using rank estimates, as the most effective and affordable. The degree of depreciation of fixed assets of the railway infrastructure was studied as one of the most important factors affecting the level of safety. The ranking of this indicator was carried out and negative dynamics was established in the entire observation period. The method of interval forecasting was used to analyze the dynamics and make a forecast, with a high degree of probability showing a trend towards a further increase in the degree of depreciation of fixed assets. It is concluded that it is necessary to take measures to reduce the studied factor.
- Federal'naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki: ofits. portal [Federal state statistics service: the official portal]. URL: http://www.gks.ru.
- Ministerstvo Rossiiskoi Federatsii po delam grazhdanskoi oborony, chrezvychainym situatsiyam i likvidatsii posledstvii stikhiinykh bedstvii: ofits. portal. [The Ministry of the Russian Federation for civil defence, emergencies and elimination of consequences of natural disasters: the official portal]. URL: https://www.mchs.gov.ru.
- Musaev V.K., Udaeva O.S., Shvartsburg L.E., Aksenov V.A., Khachatryan S.A. Analiz riska dlya otsenki bezopasnosti slozhnykh tekhnicheskikh sistem [Risk analysis for the safety assessment of complex technical systems]. Nauka i tekhnika transporta [Science and technology in transport], 2016, No. 3, pp. 56–59.
- Gabdulkhakov R.R., Yagudin R.I., Bakhtiyarov A.M., Elizar'eva E.N., Marvanov R.V. Sravnitel'nyi analiz sovremennykh metodov otsenki riska dlya obespecheniya bezopasnosti [Benchmarking for up-to-date risk assessment methods for safety assurance]. Byulleten' rezul'tatov nauchnykh issledovanii [Bulletin of scientific research results], 2017, No. 1–2 (22–23), pp. 5–15.
- Levin S.N., Lavrent'eva A.N., Vasil'ev G.G. Analiz metodov otsenki riska avarii i identifikatsii opasnostei pri razrabotke meropriyatii po preduprezhdeniyu chrezvychainykh situatsii [Accident risk assessment and hazards identification analysis to prevent emergency situations]. Problemy sbora, podgotovki i transporta nefti i nefteproduktov [Problems of gathering, treatment and transportation of oil and oil products], 2011, No. 4 (86), pp. 141–151.
- Makhutov A.N., Gadenin M.M., Sokolov A.M. Razvitie metodov analiza tekhnogennykh opasnostei i riskov dlya ob"ektov zheleznodorozhnogo transporta [Techniques development to analyse railway objects specific technogenic hazards and risks]. Vestnik nauchno-issledovatel'skogo instituta zheleznodorozhnogo transporta [Railway research institute bulletin], 2014, No. 6, pp. 3–12.
- O strategii natsional'noi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii [On the national security strategy of the Russian Federation]. Ukaz prezidenta RF [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation], 2015. URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_191669/61a97f7ab0f2f3757fe034d11011c763bc2e593f/.
- Kopylova A.V. Prognozirovanie riska pri ekspluatatsii zheleznodorozhnogo podvizhnogo sostava [Risk prediction for rolling stock operation]. Zheleznodorozhnyi transport [The railway transport], 2016, No. 6, pp. 74–76.
- Menedzhment riska. Metody otsenki riska [Risk management. Risk assessment methods]. Moscow: Standartinform Publ., 2012.
- Yannikov I.M., Latypova I.A., Telegina M.V. Primenenie GIS-tekhnologii v oblasti analiza riska chrezvychainykh situatsii prirodnogo i tekhnogennogo kharaktera territorii [Application of GIS technology in the field of risk analysis for emergency situations of natural and man-made territories]. Intellektual'nye sistemy v proizvodstve [Intelligent manufacturing technology], 2016, No. 2 (29), pp. 81–84.
- Sultanov R.M., Ibatullina L.A. Prognozirovanie chrezvychainykh situatsii pri transportirovke nefteproduktov zheleznodorozhnym transportom [Emergency prediction for railway transportation of petroleum products] Problemy sbora, podgotovki i transporta nefti i nefteproduktov [Problems of gathering, treatment and transportation of oil and oil products], 2017, No. 1 (107), pp. 176–185.
- Kurakina I.N., Ivlichev I.A. Metody otsenki ekologicheskikh riskov na osnove raznorodnykh dannykh [Environmental risk assessment methods based on heterogeneous data]. Izvestiya SPbGETU “LETI” [Proceedings of Saint Petersburg Electrotechnical University], 2015, No. 2, pp. 46–51.
- Bel'skaya E.N., Sugak E.V. Otsenka ekologicheskikh riskov [Environmental risk assessment]. Reshetnevskie chteniya [Reshetnev readings], 2014, Vol. 2, pp. 345–346.
- Vishnyakov Y.D., Radaev N.N. Obshchaya teoriya riskov [General risk theory]. Moscow: Akademiya Publ., 2008, 368 p.
- Kraskovskii A.E., Vyrkov S.A. Osnovnye podkhody i metody dokazatel'stva bezopasnosti dvizheniya [Basic approaches and methods for proving traffic safety]. Zheleznodorozhnyi transport [The railway transport], 2016, No. 3, pp. 61–65.
- Metodiki otsenki riskov chrezvychainykh situatsii i normativy priemlemogo riska chrezvychainykh situatsii. Rukovodstvo po otsenke riskov chrezvychainykh situatsii tekhnogennogo kharaktera, v tom chisle pri ekspluatatsii kriticheski vazhnykh ob"ektov Rossiiskii Federatsii [Methodologies for assessing the risks of emergency situations and standards for acceptable risk of emergency situations. Guidelines for assessing the risks of technological emergencies, including the operation of critical facilities of the Russian Federation], 2008. URL: http://www.sra-russia.ru/upload/iblock/f35/f35a0297f243c1f8bac766c84efc5....
- Faustova O.G. Metodika otsenki riskov vozniknoveniya chrezvychainykh situatsii v mul'timodal'nykh perevozkakh [Technique of an assessment of risks of emergency situations in multimodal transportations]. Vestnik Astrakhanskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta. Seriya: Morskaya tekhnika i tekhnologiya [Vestnik of Astrakhan State Technical University. Series: Marine engineering and technology], 2014, No. 1, pp. 109–116.
- Anardovich S.S., Rush E.A. Analiz faktorov, vliyayushchikh na sostoyanie bezopasnosti na zheleznodorozhnom transporte [Analysis of factors affecting the state of safety in railway transport]. Transportnaya infrastruktura Sibirskogo regiona : materialy X mezhdunar. nauch.-prakt. konf. [The Transport Infrastructure of the Siberian Region: materials of the Tenth Int. scientific and practical conf.]. Irkutsk: in two volumes: IrGUPS Publ., 2019, Vol. 1, pp. 143–148.
- Gozbenko V.E., Kripak M.N., Ivankov A.N. Sovershenstvovanie transportno-ekspeditsionnogo obsluzhivaniya gruzovladel'tsev [Improving freight forwarding services for cargo owners]. Irkutsk, 2011.