|The Regional Impacts of Climate Change|
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10.2.6.3. Pollution Hazards
Experiments by Hatakeyama et al. (1991) showed that the higher temperatures are, the faster ground-level ozone forms and the longer high concentrations of ozone last. Therefore, global warming would accelerate the photochemical reaction rates among chemical pollutants in the atmosphere, increasing oxidants in many urban areas. High levels of photochemical oxidants are associated with eye irritation, severe respiratory irritation, increased frequency of asthmatic attacks of susceptible persons, and decreased pulmonary functions (Ando, 1993).
North China-including Beijing, Tianjin, the four provinces (Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi), parts of Anhui province, and parts of inner Mongolia-is an economic center of China. It also is a topographical and climatological entity. Its population is 371 million, and its area is 76.5 million ha, including 28.9 million ha of cultivated land. Because this region already is at risk from normal climate variability, it also is likely to be quite vulnerable to long-term secular shifts. The concept of regions at risk is used here to focus on four different managed ecosystems: water resources, agriculture, forests, and coastal zones.
Water resources in north China are sensitive and vulnerable to climate change because:
Trends of runoff for north China under four GCM scenarios are shown in Table
10-9. (At its lower reach, the Huanghe is elevated above its neighboring
lands.) Both surface water and groundwater in north China seem to be quite sensitive
to climatic variability, especially on the Huang-Hai plain, according to the
model results. Under these scenarios, climate change will result in an additional
shortfall of 0.15-1.4 billion m3 of water in the Jing-Jin-Tang subregion, which
would cause economic losses of US$50-800 million (constant 1990 values) in a
normal year and US$230-2,270 million in a very dry year.
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