The British people voted on June 23 to leave the European Union, and now we ask: what comes next for the bloc? The vote is not the cause of Europe’s challenges, but rather a symptom of Europe’s growing fragmentation.
The European Union is at its core a project to contain nationalism by attempting to boost economic interdependency and prosperity. Nevertheless, the EU’s structural weaknesses, the financial crisis, divergences across the bloc, migration challenges, and socioeconomic and generational gaps within member states have led to the rise of anti-establishment and anti-EU forces across Europe.
We forecast that, over the coming years, the bloc’s ability to function will deteriorate. A new model of European geopolitics will emerge. The nation-state will return as the fundamental organizational principle of Europe, and with it ad hoc alliances and treaties designed to allow nations to pursue their interests on the basis of temporary arrangements of convenience