11.1 Tessaleno Devezas
Opening talk: "The Longwave phenomenon: Open Questions and New Insights"
There is today very robust evidence concerning the existence of long waves in economics, sometimes referred to as Kondratiev Waves (K-waves) - exemplified by numerous articles in a wide variety of respected journals. These waves have received many different names such as Successive Industrial Revolutions, Changes in Technological Regimes, Oscillations of Technological and Social Moods, Technological Paradigms, etc.. I have recently introduced the name of Succeeding Technospheres.
Many well-known names from economics, physical and social sciences have contributed to the debate, beginning with Joseph Schumpeter in the 1940s, and intensified during the 1980s and 1990s with the works of Gerhard Mensch, Jay Forrester, Alfred Kleinknecht, Chris Freeman, Bryan Berry, Carlota Perez, Jacob van Duijn, Ernest Mandel, Robert Ayres, Kenyon De Greene, and many others. However this debate has diminished in recent years, though not completely, and much of the discussion analysing economics and society (and its future) has been reoriented and is employing new scientific tools, such as chaos theory, complexity theory, nonlinear systems, etc. in an effort to build a theoretical base in the quest for sustainable development. Complexity theory and nonlinearity are currently hot topics of interdisciplinary interest among the natural and social sciences, but still fall short of explaining the cyclic and evolutionary dynamics of society. As Ian Stewart recently pointed out: 'Nonlinearity is not a universal answer, but it is often a better way of thinking about the problem'.
Although much has been published on K-waves, we must consider:
1 - a comprehensive and embracing theory of Kondratiev economic cycles still needs to be elaborated, while at least four major issues remain to be clarified:
i - why is there disregard among many contemporary economists and social scientists, some of them even stubbornly rejecting the existence of these waves?
ii - what is to be understood about the causality of the phenomenon - not just the mechanisms, but also the underlying causes?
iii- why the half-century beat? and since when? (only after, or even before the Industrial Revolution?, and more: where did the clock come from?).
iv- will there be more Kondratievs? Free-will or determinism?
2 - K-wave theory is a very useful tool to construct future scenarios, not only regarding the future of technology (Technospheres), but also the future of human reasoning (morals, ethics, common values). There is apparently a difference between the rates at which humankind develops new technologies and the rate at which new ways of thinking are developed.
3 - The use of new tools of science mentioned above may lead us to a better understanding of the causality of the phenomenon. Brian Berry was perhaps one of the first to use Chaos Theory to analyse the K-waves. But the question remains: is it something endogenous, inherent to social behaviour of the human being? Or is there some kind of exogenous causality (external to human beings, even cosmic causes?). The understanding of all the above-mentioned aspects (not only in their economic character, but as a whole physical or social phenomenon), could contribute significantly to futures research, helping us trace the best trajectory through the coming millennium. A few different new approaches trying to describe the causality of this Longwave Phenomenon will be seen in the following presentations.
Tessaleno Devezas, Universidade de Beira Interior, xxx, 6200 Covilha, Portugal.
11.2 Brian Berry:
"Macroeconomy and Polity"
Clear rhythms link American politics to the macroeconomy. On the long downwave politics revolves around two poles: major conservative victories follow K-peaks and help promote technological restructuring, but also growing inequity; at primary troughs reformists achieve power and change the policy environment to respond to social problems. Reform slows in the K-trough, succeeded by competitive politics and third-party challenges. The period ends in a trough war that reorients the nation's domestic agenda. On the ensuing long upwave, progressives take over, pushing the technological innovations to market saturation and crafting a new social synthesis that culminates in a major realignment of the political parties amidst a stagflation crisis and a peak war that drives the next K-peak and conservative victory. This cycle has been repeated 4 times since 1800.
Brian J.L. Berry, 2404 Forest Court, McKinney, Texas 75070-4018, USA. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
11.3 Carlos A. Mallmann and Guillermo A. Lemarchand:
"A Generational Explanation of Long-Term Billow-Like Dynamics of Societal Processes"
In the last years, an increasing amount of empirical evidence has been accumulating showing the existence of several kinds of long-term societal processes. Particular attention was given to the 50-60 year billows, usually related with economic and technological processes (Kondratieff Cycles). These studies generated a large set of different theories - intrinsic to the economy and technology - that tried to explain the recurrent process origin. Since the last century several scholars have also identified even longer societal billows, usually related with long-term political processes (Hegemonic and Ferrari Cycles). The paradigm of long-term societal processes was not always accepted due to the lack of a consistent theoretical framework that could explain it. In this paper we introduce a partially formalized version of that framework which contains only one to be determined constant, namely: a generational time lag. It is shown that this time constant is equal to the life lapse of human beings in which they are mainly motivated to interact with their contextual, social and habital, processes. This constant "tau", is called Societal Historic Generation (SHG) and concludes - using theoretical and empirical arguments - that its length is 39 ± 4 years. A mathematical model of the societal temporal diffusion of those motivational concerns that is in agreement with all the empirically determined characteristics of the long-term billow-like processes is presented. The solutions for the first three oscillatory modes have the following billow-wavelengths: 156 ± 16; 31 ± 3; 17 ± 2 years (with k > 0) and 52 ± 5; 22 ± 2; 14 ± 1 years (with k < 0). The basis of this model has anthropo-psycho- epigenetic human roots that allow the emergence of collective societal behavior patterns with the appearance of long-term billows in economical and political indicators. An interpretation and discussion of the main characteristics of the societal moods as well as other research lines to test the model is presented.
Carlos Alberto Mallmann, Centro Estudios Avanzados, Univ. Buenos Aires, Uriburu 950, 1er piso, Buenos Aires 1114, Argentina. Email: email@example.com
11.4 James Corredine:
"The Aggregate Virtual Working Life Tenure - Population Dynamics Longwave Theory"
The fundamental force that drives Kondratieff Long Economic Waves is the same force that drives us as individuals, ie. "the relative intensity of our vitality over our lifetimes". This fundamental force in the aggregate drives the fluctuation in aggregate economic data over the long term. The differences in the relative aggregate intensity of the population's vitality (and the relative aggregate intensity of the population's leadership cadre's vitality) over time create a regime, "The Aggregate Virtual Working Life Tenure," whose vitality fluctuates within a range of two fundamental extremes, vigor and torpor, driving economic phenomena that we have all heard familiarly described as vigorous or torpid or perhaps another descriptive term to represent a point within the range. Economics in the British/American tradition made a wrong turn at Ricardo/Malthus. Things would be clearer had we followed the thread of thought from Smith through Malthus and Keynes. Malthus's demand depression is rooted, I believe, in his idea of "effective demand" driven by his more fundamental idea of "intensity of demand". Had he lived long enough, I think, he would have seen his idea of "intensity" as the cause of the Long Economic Wave. With help from Malthus, I view the 24-year Kontratieff upslope as the "Intensity Upslope" and the 30-year Kontdratieff downslope as the "Disintensity Downslope". The 54-Year Economic Longwave is just the manifestation of the underlying relative "intensity" of human vitality over The 54-Year "Aggregate Virtual Working Life Tenure."
James T. Corredine, 24 Bailey Court, Middle Island, NY 11953, USA. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
11.5 Dmitry V. Ivanov:
"Hyper-cycles of the State Conjuncture"
1. Analysis of the state organization history reveals periodical fluctuations between "big state" (BS) and "small state" (SS). Criteria of the state "size" are (1) the population quota involved in the citizenship - the state legitimation process, and (2) extent of the state control / governance of social life: economy, justice, art, family etc. Fluctuations BS-SS are determined by the changes of a state conjuncture which correlate with the secular trends of the economical conjuncture.
2. It possible to see six waves / three hyper-cycles of the state conjuncture from the early forming of the European world-economy in 11th - 12th century to our time. (1) mid 12th - early 14th: BS-conjuncture - relatively low economical conjuncture provokes the state intervention as a result of the alliance between economical / social subjects and state. (2) early 14th - mid 15th: SS-conjuncture - relatively high economical conjuncture provokes restriction of the state power as a result of the discrepancy between economical / social subjects and state. (3) mid 15th - early 17th: BS-conjuncture. (4) early 17th - last 18th: SS-conjuncture. (5) last 18th - mid 20th: BS-conjuncture. (6) mid 20th - last 21st: SS-conjuncture.
3. Under conditions of the BS-conjuncture leaders of the economical growth, social development, and military powers are the countries in which more interventionist regimes are established: France of Philippe II August and Philippe IV (estate monarchy, 13th c.), Habsburg's Empire (absolutist monarchy, 15th - 16th c.), Soviet Union (authoritarian welfare state, mid 20th c.). In the SS-conjuncture periods the leadership belongs to more liberal regimes: Genoa and Venice republics (commercial oligarchies, 14th - mid 15th c.), Netherlands and England (bourgeois oligarchies, 17th - 18th c.), US, Germany, and Japan (liberal democracies, mid - last 20th c.).
4. It seems possible by the end of 21st c. the down-wave of the economical conjuncture hyper-cycle will provoke new BS-conjuncture. Under conditions of the virtualization of society the adequate state form, which can resolve problems of mobilization and strategic re-distribution of key resources - images and communications, becomes a virtual empire.
Dmitry V. Ivanov, St. Petersburg University, St. Petersburg, Russia. Email: "Dmitry Ivanov"
11.6 Tessaleno Devezas and Vladimir Kompanichenko:
"Global Cycles of Human Civilization: Qualitative and Quantitative Basis"
The global social system called mankind is related to the class of active natural systems (together with stars, magmatic systems, living organisms) according to Kompanichenko's classification (1994). All active systems are characterized by an energy surplus in relation to their external medium. The cycle of their development includes four universal stages: growth, internal development (reaching eventual maturity), fixed state and aging. In the course of the cycle, the level of organization first increases towards a peak, then it decreases till maximum simplicity or chaos. On the basis of the given approach, the authors have estimated the most probable normal duration of human civilization's existence. We consider the present one as the most highly developed phase in the evolution of human beings as a system. Qualitative and quantitative approaches were used. At the basis of both there are the following principles: 1) the starting point of civilization's development (the real concept of civilization) is the beginning of the Neolithic Age, i.e., about 10.000 years ago; 2) at the present time mankind is at the end of the growth stage (a further significant increase in the number of the human population is perspectively impossible).
Qualitative approach: analogies were used between two cooperative systems of different ranks: a person (community of cells) and mankind (community of people). Each of four stages occupies about 25% of the human life cycle's duration (in average 72 years): growth (0-18), inner development (18-36), fixed stage (36-54) and aging (54-72). The duration of the growth stage of human civilization is ca. 10.000 years; then, for the whole cycle, it will be 10.000 x 4 = 40.000 years.
Quantitative approach: In order to prove that the most likely timing for the growth phase is ca. 10.000 years, a mathematical method using logistic curves was applied, resulting in the final conclusion that we are in fact at the end of the growth phase (going on perhaps for a century more!). This preliminary estimation points to the colossal potential of humankind and the real chance of overcoming the approaching global crisis, typical of transictions between successive phases.
Tessaleno Devezas, Universidade de Beira Interior, xxx, 6200 Covilha, Portugal.
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created: June 10,1998