The Atlantic’s third storm has formed in record time, and it’s a threat
- By contrast, today is June 2, and the Atlantic's third named storm of the year just formed.
- At around noon Eastern, the National Hurricane Center named Tropical Storm Cristobal—a system wobbling around the Southern Gulf of Mexico with 40mph winds.
- This is the earliest ever in the Atlantic season (which, however imperfect, has records dating back to 1851) that the third named storm has formed in a given year.
- By Friday or Saturday, Cristobal should find enough of a weakness in the high pressure ridge to move north into the Central Gulf of Mexico and toward the United States.
- By Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center estimates Cristobal will have become a strong tropical storm with sustained winds of 65mph.
- The bottom line is that a tropical system is likely to be in the Gulf of Mexico late this week, bound for the United States, over waters warm enough to sustain intensification.
Cristobal is now the earliest third Atlantic named storm on record
- Right now Cristobal is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts.
- On its current track, it is expected to continue to interact with southern Mexico over the next several days.
- The main risk for this storm will continue to be rain.
- Ten to 20 inches of rain is possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracrus and Campeche.
- There could be isolated amounts of more than 2 feet of rain.
- In the long term, the storm's forecast gets a little tricky.
- CNN Meteorologist Brandon Miller says, "The long-term forecast is very complex due to potential interactions with land and strong winds that are expected to influence the vortex.
- States along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor the situation during the next several days and have a plan in place, should a storm threaten the coast.
The third named storm of the year is brewing on the first day of hurricane season
- Tropical Depression Three formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center.
- Maximum winds with TD Three are currently 30 mph but are expected to strengthen in the coming days as the system brings heavy rainfall to portions of Mexico.
- Once the system gets upgraded to a tropical storm, meaning winds of 39 mph or greater, it will be named Tropical Storm Cristobal.
- In the short term, little movement is expected, as this system churns over southern Mexico, bringing heavy rain, flash flooding, and mudslides to the region.
- In the long term, this storm could track into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend, becoming our third named Atlantic tropical storm of the season, Cristobal.
Hurricane season began today, and there are legitimate reasons to be concerned
- For answers, Ars contacted hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, who will update his seasonal forecast for Atlantic activity this year in a few days.
- The only thing that really serves as a good predictor for a really active hurricane season is if named storms form in the deep tropics, he said.
- It appears increasingly likely that the tropical Pacific Ocean will be cooler than normal or even reach La Niña conditions, which produces weather patterns over the Atlantic more favorable to storm development.
- Like most other forecasters, Klotzbach has already predicted an abnormally busy season, with 16 named storms.
- Had waters in this area been warmer than normal, he said, it would be an even stronger indication of a hyperactive season.
- When these eastern Atlantic waters are warm in May, they tend to force wind and pressure patterns that increase anomalous warming in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the season, he said.
How cities along the US coast are preparing for a hurricane season like no other
- As hurricane season officially starts Monday, Florida and other states along the Atlantic coast are faced with the daunting reality, and are rewriting nearly every aspect of their storm preparedness.
- With a forecast of a busy hurricane season, officials are changing their pleas from remain indoors to combat coronavirus -- to leave home and go to shelters when asked to evacuate.
- The state has also signed up 200 hotels to give counties options for vulnerable people such as seniors, those who have underlying conditions or people who may have coronavirus, said Jared Moskowitz, the Florida director of Emergency Management.
- Nursing homes in areas that are at risk of flooding will work with the state to move residents to facilities out of the storm's path, where social distancing will also be considered, officials said.
Central America faces major flood threat
- Central American gyres are expansive, slow-moving circulation patterns that typically form at the beginning and the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
- This gyre could unleash life-threatening flooding and mudslides this week across Central America.
- It may also spin off two tropical storms that could menace the Gulf Coast and the region's Pacific coasts.
- As thunderstorms become better organized within the southern portion of the gyre, a tropical development could occur, leading to the eastern Pacific's first named storm of the year.
- As the gyre meanders north, various weather models are hinting at another early season tropical storm developing within the Atlantic Basin.
- A European model says the tropical wave could cross the Bay of Campeche and enter the western Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Weather is less than ideal for Saturday's SpaceX launch
- But the 45th Space Wing Weather Squadron says the odds do not look favorable.
- Right now, it forecasts only a 40% chance of favorable conditions for Saturday's attempt.
- There had been a 50/50 chance Wednesday that the weather would clear, and 10 extra minutes might have given the launch team the green light.
- This overall pattern is why the weather squadron is giving a 60% chance of unfavorable conditions on Saturday.
- The weather squadron also has 40% chance of favorable conditions on Sunday.
- A whole team of meteorologists is on hand from the 45th Space Wing and SpaceX to determine whether the weather will scrub the launch.
- Earlier this month, NASA had to delay its launch of the Atlas V rocket, US Space Force mission due to Tropical Storm Arthur.
For the first time, a third named storm could form before the start of hurricane season
- The system was several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda, the NHC said Friday morning.
- If this happens, it would be the first time on record that three named storms have formed across this basin prior to June 1, the official start of Atlantic hurricane season, Brink says.
- This month we have already had Arthur, which formed May 16, and Bertha, which formed off the East Coast earlier this week.
- Since 1900 having two named storms before the official start of hurricane season has only happened five times, said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
- Over a dozen forecasting groups, including NOAA, are forecasting this hurricane season to be above average, possibly exceptionally active.
- The good news is that even if this storm forms, it doesn't pose a direct threat to the East Coast at this time.