Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.80 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.60 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.90 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.90 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.3.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
An estimated 13 million people in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya need humanitarian assistance because of drought triggered by three consecutive failed rainy seasons. Households in the affected areas are experiencing crop failures, lack of water, and significant livestock deaths. Prior to the current drought, people in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya were highly food-insecure. In 2021, more than 22.3 million people across the three countries were facing Crisis food security levels or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) driven by armed conflict, rising food prices, and the impact of COVID-19 on economy and livelihoods. In addition, natural hazards such as floods, desert locust invasion, and drought have contributed to making people more vulnerable to the impact of the current drought. ?
In Ethiopia, lack of water and grazing is driving households to migrate alongside their livestock in search of water, pasture, and food. In Somalia and Kenya, lack of resources and people’s movement is triggering resource-based conflicts between communities. In Somalia, at least 15 people were killed between 20 December and 20 January in Laas Caanood district, Sool Region, following clashes over ownership of grazing land. Similarly, in Kenya, at least 17 people were killed between October–December 2021 in Saku subcounty of Marsabit county following clashes triggered by competition over water and pasture resources.?
Despite forecasting above-average rainfall in most eastern Africa countries, the risk of a fourth failure of the rainy season (which normally runs from March–May) remains, threatening to increase the number of people experiencing severe acute food insecurity in the drought-affected areas of the three countries (an estimated 15–20 million people from nine million projected for the first quarter of 2022). ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Food and Livelihood: Drought has resulted in below-average harvest and a rise in basic food prices driving high food needs. Drought also led to the death of livestock because of lack of pasture. Livelihood activities of pastoralists and farmers living in drought-impacted areas have been disrupted. ?
WASH: Water sources, including water catchments, boreholes, pans, and dams, have dried up. Needs for drinking water and water for agricultural and livestock activities have been increasing. Emergency water trucking services are needed. The risk of disease outbreaks caused by inadequate access to sanitation and hygiene facilities remains high.?
Health and Nutrition: A surge in acute diarrhoea and waterborne diseases in Somalia is caused by the lack of access to safe drinking water. Malnutrition rates across the three countries have been increasing because of drought and conflict. In Baidoa district, Somalia, rates of chronic malnutrition among children under 5increased from 30% to 48% in October–November 2021 compared to the same period in 2019. In the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' region of Ethiopia, hospital admissions for severe acute malnutrition increased by 32% in 2021 compared to 2020.?
Education: Children’s access to education is disrupted because of households' internal migration in search of water and food resources. Absentee and dropout rates have increased. For example, in West Hararge and East Hararge zones (Ethiopia), 334 schools were forced to close because of lack of water supplied, affecting access to education for 300,000 children. In Kenya, between October–December, almost 13,000 students did not attend school because of lack of school meals and water.?