Renewable energy is expected to get a green light from the U.S. Department of Energy — the same agency whose head has questioned whether wind and solar power has displaced coal plants that typically run around clock.
Renewable energy has long had its detractors, or those who feel that it would be uneconomical without subsidies and those grid operators who worry that it is intermittent — the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine — and therefore it is unreliable.
Energy Secretary Rick Perry indicated last April he may fall into this camp — odd because Texas, where he served as governor, has the country’s largest share of wind generation. He thus ordered a study on the issue, which could come out as early as today — one that Bloomberg is reporting will contradict the positions taken by President Trump and the words spoken earlier by Perry.
“It is not reasonable to rely exclusively on fossil fuels, and it is not feasible to rely exclusively on renewables,” Energy Secretary Perry said in April.“So we’re working to find the right balance, so we have a diverse supply of energy that is clean and affordable, and a grid that is safe and reliable.”
What’s changed? According to the draft report that is “constantly evolving,” the authors say that the grid is better managed and that today’s technologies are working to increase efficiencies to allow more green electrons to travel over the wires. It is all working to increase grid reliability.
Simply put, coal, natural gas and nuclear energy provide a steady supply of electricity and each can be counted on to come through when called upon by grid operators. But if state regulators require a certain portion of the electricity to come from wind and solar power, they get antsy.
What they must do is to keep backup generation available. And right now, that is most often natural gas plants that can kick on in a moment notice. The advent of some of these modern generators has generally meant that coal plants are not used. But if they are, those coal plants are not ideally suited to such tasks and can even increase overall emissions as they take a while to rev up and down.
Until storage technologies reach their full potential, the relationship between natural gas and renewables is symbiotic.
“All other things equal, a 1% percent increase in the share of fast reacting fossil technologies is associated with a 0.88% percent increase in renewable generation capacity in the long term,” says the National Bureau of Economic Research. “Our paper calls attention to the fact that renewables and fast-reacting fossil technologies appear as highly complementary and that they should be jointly installed to meet the goals of cutting emissions and ensuring a stable supply.”
Perry’s main concern is that renewables may be displacing older coal and natural gas plants — assets that have been long counted on to keep the lights on and the commerce flowing. S&P Global said that as much as 21,000 megawatts of coal, natural gas and nuclear energy could be retired by 2020, which is not a surprise to those who follow the trials and tribulations of the coal and nuclear industries that are more threatened by cheap natural gas.
While the Energy Department’s draft report says that tough environmental regulations and subsidized green energy have played a part, Bloomberg reports, those factors have had a “minor” role in the changing dynamics and that cheap and abundant natural gas has been the main factor.
Alright. So the next question is whether the electricity network can handle this intermittency. Even in California, grid experts have expressed concern, especially as renewable requirements have increased. California, for example, has a 50 percent mandate by 2030.
To that end, the National Energy Renewable Laboratory did a study that concluded that modern technologies are equipping the grid with the tools to become more flexible — the ability for utilities to communicate with their customers to adjust energy usage during peak periods. That would ease the constraints and allow all electrons to pass through, avoiding brownouts.
“We note that these homegrown energy resources are proven technologies that help support grid reliability,” the American Wind Energy Association, Advanced Energy Economy and the Solar Energy Industries Association wrote. “These energy resources have already been integrated smoothly into the electric power system in large and increasing amounts, as demonstrated in countless studies and, more importantly, in real-world experience across the U.S.”
Does this now mean that the Trump administration will have undergone a transformation? No, as the the president has always said that energy policy ought to be dictated by free markets and not by subsidies and over-regulation. Now, though, the rhetoric may get toned down and green energy advocates may get the ear of Energy Secretary Perry.