Dr Susan Krumdieck
Dunedin residents will face radical cuts to car use and
fundamental changes in the city's design when peak oil hits in
the next few decades, says the writer of a report on the city's
reliance on fossil fuels.
With 95% of all trips in Dunedin made in private vehicles,
changing such behaviour has been identified as the most
effective way of lessening demand for fuel in Dunedin.
"Urban villages" and inner city living will need to
replace the system of travelling from suburbs to the city for
"What we are saying is not opinion," University of Canterbury
Associate Prof Dr Susan Krumdieck said of peak oil.
The changes, with their wide-ranging effects on every city
resident, were vital, she said yesterday.
Dr Krumdieck's report Peak Oil Vulnerability: Assessment for
Dunedin was released at a Dunedin City Council press
Peak oil is the point when the maximum rate of global
petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of
production enters terminal decline.
The report said analyses of the world's oil supply showed a
50% reduction in oil production was likely by 2050.
Commissioned by the previous council, Dr Krumdieck's work
follows a report on climate change released in April by
University of Otago emeritus professor of geography Blair
Mayor Dave Cull said yesterday both reports would be used
across departments to guide long-term planning.
Dr Krumdieck, an associate professor of mechanical
engineering, was assisted by Dr Bob Lloyd, from the
University of Otago, who provided background research on
While the goal of cutting consumption by 50% was a challenge,
Dr Krumdieck said the issue was a problem only "if you can't
start thinking and moving forward".
The surveys showed in the case of only 40% of car trips were
there no alternatives, such as walking, biking or public
could move closer to 90%-100% if residents could choose the
"optimum location" for their needs.
Shopping trips constituted the highest number of car trips
for residents, and central-city and waterfront apartments
would have the advantage of being close to the higher density
of shopping outlets in the city.
For suburban areas, urban villages would provide shopping,
education, medical and other services within suburbs, similar
to the historical model before the closure of suburban
The villages would also be a hub for a better public
The city is expected to benefit from its history as a tramway
and cable car centre, with the "skeleton" of that history
still in place.
Dr Krumdieck said the council needed to take a lead role in
urban design and planning.
It also needed to take a role in encouraging high-efficiency
vehicles, and prepare for an "influx of scooters" that met
safety, emission and noise standards.
The council needed to make sure traffic engineering developed
safe infrastructure for walking and cycling, including 100km
of dedicated cycleways.
Dr Krumdieck said technological advances in electric-powered
vehicles and biofuels would not result in a fleet of vehicles
that would fix the problem.
Hybrid cars "look like the answer", but were not because they
could not achieve the levels of consumption savings needed.
"Dunedin has to get past the distraction of
promising-sounding alternatives or substitutes, and start
working on the transition to a low-energy transport system
and urban form."
Mr Cull said a move to the CBD could happen naturally as
petrol prices rose.
As the shape of the city was determined by cheap oil, it
would be remoulded by more expensive oil.