Once again, reports of U.S. President Donald Trump’s political death have been greatly exaggerated by Democrats, the liberal media and “never Trump Republicans”.
What Tuesday’s midterm U.S. election showed is that “Trumpism” is alive and well.
To understand why, you have to put the Democrats’ victory in the House of Representatives, and the Republican victory in the Senate, in historical context.
That is, by comparing apples to apples — how Trump’s performance compares to previous U.S. presidents in their first midterm elections.
By that standard, Trump fared much better than former U.S. Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, both of whom went on to win second presidential terms.
While the final results aren’t in for Trump’s first midterm election, the Democrats will gain, at most, about 40 additional seats in regaining control of the House of Representatives from the Republicans, while the Republicans retain control of the Senate by at least their current margin of 51 votes to 49.
By comparison, in the 2010 midterms, after Obama’s historic first presidential victory in 2008, the Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate to the Republicans.
Obama himself described it as a “shellacking”, with the Democrats losing control of the House of Representatives, while their majority in the Senate was sharply reduced.
Clinton in his first midterm election in 1994, two years after winning the presidency, did worse than Obama.
In that election, the Republicans picked up 54 seats in the House of Representatives and eight in the Senate.
More significantly, the Democrats lost control of both the House and the Senate to the Republicans, and never regained a majority in either chamber for the duration of Clinton’s presidency.
Similarly, Democratic president Harry Truman and Republican president Dwight D. Eisenhower, unlike Trump, lost control of both the House of Representatives and Senate in their first midterm elections, and went on to win second presidential terms.
This puts in historical context Trump’s performance in his first midterm election, where he did well compared to many past presidents (albeit not all), who had poor showings in their first midterm elections.
Tuesday’s vote wasn’t a rejection of Trump’s presidency by a so-called “blue wave” of voters.
To be sure, the Democrats recapturing the House of Representatives is significant. For example, they could demand Trump’s tax returns from the IRS, or impeach him.
But without startling new revelations, it’s doubtful the Senate, with a secure Republican majority, would convict Trump in a Senate trial where two-thirds of the senators would have to find him guilty.
The more likely scenario is increasing political gridlock in Washington, typical when the opposition party to the president’s controls the House of Representatives or the Senate or both.
It doesn’t mean Trump can’t get anything done — it’s hard enough passing legislation when the president has majorities in both chambers of Congress. But it will be more difficult.
The more significant outcome from the midterms is that Trump has again defied America’s (and Canada’s) liberal elites.
They can’t understand how a man they consider a morally corrupt sexist, racist and dictator — who has already survived scandals they believe would have destroyed any previous American president — is still standing.
The reason is they typically ignore, downplay or dismiss the America that exists beyond such Democratic strongholds as New York and California.
And the widespread disgust of the American electorate with Washington politics as usual, long before Trump arrived.