Whether climate finance can be harnessed to deliver forest conservation and other development priorities of countries experiencing armed conflicts is this paper’s overarching research query. This is an important query given that many of the developing countries that are officially disposed toward implementing approaches for reducing forest-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as the mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), are currently experiencing or emerging from armed conflicts [1
]. Also, it has been recently argued that the long-term success of such approaches will be contingent upon their capacity to mobilize a broad range of stakeholders [4
], which in turn depends on their alignment with development priorities. In the case of tropical countries experiencing (or emerging from) armed conflicts, these priorities would be largely related to peacebuilding.
Arguments around the potential of tropical forest landscapes to contribute to climate change mitigation are contested. On the one hand, it is widely recognized that tropical forest ecosystems provide various services that, to varying degrees, contribute to human well-being and climate change mitigation [5
]. While the fixation and storage of GHGs are important tropical forest environmental services [5
], uncertainty is high as to the extent of how changes in forest cover contribute to global GHG emissions [8
]. Early estimations indicated that forest cover changes contribute some 18–20% of global GHGs. However, recent studies indicate that these estimates are exaggerated [9
]. Such variations in estimations largely result from the different measurement methods that have been employed. Initial estimates relied on national GHG inventories or on country reports submitted to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), whereas recent estimates are based on analyses of forest cover changes and the production of above-ground biomass maps (using satellite imagery). Irrespective of the differences of their findings, these studies commonly recognize the biophysical opportunities for tackling climate change arising from forest landscapes [11
]. However, other studies argue that approaches to reducing forest-based emissions might pose threats to economic growth, local livelihoods, forest governance, biodiversity conservation, and the rights of indigenous peoples and local communities [13
]. Critics also point to the approaches’ low social and political feasibility [17
], in particular because forest landscapes not only play a key role in climate change mitigation, they also host many of the world’s conflicts [21
]. Moreover, it could be argued that the increasing demand for food and farm land will worsen tropical deforestation, ecosystems degradation, hunger, and civil unrest if action is not taken.
Despite arguments contesting the social and political feasibility of approaches for reducing forest-based emissions, they are a key component of a global strategy to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature increases to below 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial conditions. For instance, REDD+ has received much attention from developed and developing countries alike, since it was first debated in global climate talks [23
]. Moreover, bilateral and multilateral donors have pledged more than US$
4.7 billion to support the design and implementation of approaches for reducing forest-based emissions, such as REDD+ and other initiatives for achieving sustainable forest landscapes [24
]. Accordingly, various developing countries are designing and implementing strategies for reducing deforestation as a means to conserve forest landscapes, mitigate climate change, and access climate finance.
There are several reasons for such levels of support. REDD+ supporters have labeled it as the most cost-effective approach to tackling climate change [26
]. Some supporters have also argued about its potential to generate important social and environmental co-benefits (which are referred to as “non-carbon benefits” in global policy discussions) for biodiversity conservation [27
]; forest governance [13
]; sustainable forest management [28
]; and community development [29
]. Although the current level of resource commitment is unprecedented, REDD+ has yet to incentivize sufficient national-level decision-making in relation to its aims to reduce forest loss and forest degradation. Furthermore, contrary to expectations, REDD+ action is far from adequate, and has largely been limited to the environmental sector and to those who agree that climate change action is needed. This trend is consistent across a range of climate change mitigation initiatives [30
], and is perhaps based on evidence that climate finance would not compete with land-use opportunity costs [14
In such contexts, co-benefits could arguably be better linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs) to mobilize a broader range of stakeholders. Recent evidence suggests that the co-benefits derived from climate action provide sufficient incentive to secure support for activities, even from those who reject the dire forecasts of climate change impacts [4
]. In that respect, linking climate finance with key SDGs might incentivize political support—beyond just the environmental sector—for climate change mitigation. For instance, both academic and policy discussions are exploring the mutually beneficial interactions between approaches for reducing forest-based emissions and those for peacebuilding [36
]. Such co-benefits will be of particular interest to various countries that are designing and implementing strategies for reducing deforestation as a means to conserve forests and access climate finance, and that also experience or are emerging from armed conflicts [37
]. Although empirical evidence shows further co-benefits may arise from pursuing forest carbon storage approaches in areas that are considered priorities for peacebuilding [38
], further research is required to understand how climate finance might link forest conservation and peacebuilding.
This paper examines opportunities to harness climate finance for conserving forests and achieving long-lasting peace. It does so via a literature review and the examination of a case study. In the following section, I provide the conceptual entry points for linking efforts for reducing forest-based emissions with those for delivering peace. I then present and discuss how these two seemingly intractable problems could be solved together and simultaneously support sustainable (low-carbon) food production in the Orinoquia region of Colombia, within an initiative for achieving sustainable forest landscapes that is being implemented and that could be expanded to other regions facing similar challenges around the world. Finally, the paper discusses the findings and concludes with a consideration of the lessons learned emerging from designing landscape approaches in a region that, while emerging from a long period of armed conflict, aspires to become a center of agricultural production. The article draws on the experience of the author in the research, policy (global climatic negotiations), and practitioner aspects of climate finance, forest conservation, and peacebuilding.
4. Discussion and Concluding Remarks
Since the success of climate change mitigation action is highly dependent on general policy reforms and governance [140
], there is a compelling need for it to be linked to broader SDG priorities. Evidence of such links might serve, firstly, to persuade the policymakers and sectors of society that are skeptical of the potential additional benefits of mitigation activities [4
], and secondly, to mobilize a broader range of stakeholders. In the case of forest-based climate change mitigation, such evidence would also strengthen the argument that while approaches for reducing forest-based emissions are not as cost-effective as initially expected, they are ultimately viable [125
]. Furthermore, these assurances are necessary for maintaining the current political and social support for REDD+ and other climate change mitigation activities. In this way, the evidence of co-benefits serves as something of a self-fulfilling prophecy—that is, sufficient evidence might secure the necessary level of social and political support to make forest conservation viable. Meanwhile, the counter-logic is that, in the absence of evidence of co-benefits, political will is liable to fail, as might social support, leading to yet another failed attempt to tackle deforestation and forest degradation [107
Recognizing that REDD+ is at a crossroads where political and public confidence, or lack thereof, may determine its future, this paper investigates the role of climate finance in contributing toward achieving SDGs. Specifically, it examines the opportunities to harness climate finance in order to achieve forest conservation, long-lasting peace, and sustainable food production. This idea is framed in current policy discussions regarding the role of non-carbon benefits to increase political and social support for REDD+. For instance, in the context of limited financial resources to incentivize climate action, I propose that the co-benefits of climate change mitigation could be better exploited to attract funding and increase political and social support, for example, by generating evidence that shows the potential for the integration of forest carbon storage and development priorities.
The findings from the literature review suggest that harnessing climate finance for conserving forests and promoting peace is in theory viable if activities are designed in accordance with social, institutional, and economic factors. Meanwhile, the Orinoquia region of Colombia provides evidence that these two seemingly intractable challenges can be proposed to be solved together. It also offers lessons on how to implement sustainable (and low-carbon) forest landscapes in a region that, while emerging from a long period of armed conflict, aspires to become a center of agricultural production.
First, there are common elements among the strategies that have been implemented to achieve sustainable development, peacebuilding, and forest conservation. Moreover, their objectives are increasingly compatible, and some authors even consider that sustainable development is a prerequisite to peacebuilding and forest conservation [36
]. For instance, rural development objectives include conditions that are conducive to achieving the peacebuilding aims of gaining territorial control and reducing conflict. In that regard, rural development activities apparently contribute toward re-establishing farmers’ control over their territories and thus to building peace. This is reflected in the recently signed Colombian peace agreement, where rural development-oriented aspects (including land tenure considerations and agricultural development) were an important part of the negotiation agenda [141
]. In turn, evidence suggests that in Colombia, peacebuilding activities enable conditions for and predispose conflict-affected farmers toward forest conservation [36
]. Castro-Nunez et al. (2016) [36
] found that the impacts of previous conservation and sustainable development programs influence farmers’ propensity to conserve forests. The implementation of these programs generally aimed to conserve biodiversity and reduce the causes of conflict. This finding highlights the positive effect of long-term peacebuilding and conservation efforts on farmers’ propensity toward forest conservation. This, in turn, suggests that establishing preconditions (i.e., some degree of stability or peace) is an important precursor to undertaking forest-based mitigation projects. Indeed, it implies that these efforts should be jointly designed and appropriately co-delivered. Castro-Nunez et al. (2016) [36
] also found that farmers will generally support forest conservation activities, provided that these are compatible with their respective livelihood priorities, including cattle ranching. However, despite this discernible propensity toward conservation, deforestation continues in the studied area. This default to deforestation indicates that conservation efforts will need to be carefully designed in order for them to enhance farmers’ livelihood options.
Second, achieving a reduction of forest-based emissions storage in the tropics implies dealing with interconnected issues of deforestation, illegal activities, and armed conflict. In such a case, it requires operationalizing governance models, building capacity, improving infrastructure, implementing land titling programs, facilitating land-use planning, and providing sustainable land uses to move beyond the conflict and contribute toward reducing forest-based emissions. This is particularly true for Orinoquia. The region has just emerged from a 52-year armed conflict, and hosts a significant part of the country’s deforestation and conflict-affected areas, where public services and infrastructure remain lacking. In Colombia, there are indeed links between the causes of armed conflict and those of deforestation. Therefore, reducing forest-based emissions requires simultaneously addressing the causes of conflict. Recent studies suggest links between conflict and deforestation and access to and control over land [37
]. In some areas, cattle ranching may appear to be the cause of deforestation. However, in reality, this is a way to claim ownership of the land, which “owners” intend to sell and thus profit from when the opportunity arises. Within that context, land titling provides a good strategy for linking peacebuilding approaches and REDD+. In fact, evidence suggests that promoting land titling can help preserve both peace and forests, and enhance the quality of life in certain areas. It also suggests, as mentioned above, that the strategies for reducing the causes of the conflict, including but not limited to land titling programs, could facilitate forest conservation, and thus the reduction of forest-related greenhouse gas emissions. However, research findings today only permit partial conclusions to be drawn about the impacts on conservation decisions of land titling programs (these constitute common approaches to reducing forest-based emissions). Instead, the results provide empirical evidence of “preconditions” and other factors that need to be considered alongside common REDD+ approaches.
Third, reducing AFOLU emissions goes beyond providing sustainable land uses and addressing commodity-driven deforestation. It requires developing a sustainable food system. The Colombian government is working to realize the Orinoquia’s potential to become a breadbasket for the world, while contributing to climate change mitigation, forest conservation, and peacebuilding. The rationale behind this objective is that feeding the human population has become an increasing developmental challenge. The global population keeps growing, and the demand for food keeps growing with it [142
]. There are direct links between agricultural supply chains, and tropical deforestation, which is a major climate change contributor, and experts anticipate that the increasing demand for food and farmland will worsen tropical deforestation, ecosystems degradation, hunger, and armed conflicts, if action is not taken [143
]. Within that context, developing sustainable land-use practices is an approach that is commonly used to address both the causes of deforestation and the causes of conflict. Such practices shall ideally be developed in collaboration with stakeholders within agricultural value chains—farmers, governments, technical experts, and buyers, among others—and take into account the needs of and conditions in each region emerging from conflict. For instance, in recent years, companies have been pledging to achieve deforestation-free supply chains as a way to reduce carbon emissions and the loss of biodiversity [144
]. This is a trend among hundreds of corporations.
This approach to transform supply chains assumes that companies will not only commit but actually take ambitious actions to reduce deforestation. However, this is uncertain [144
]. Companies are first and foremost driven by their bottom lines. If it will mean profit, they will take action. If not, they may commit to taking steps, but not be bold enough to make a difference. Companies may take action, but there is the question of whether this contributes to stopping deforestation. Besides, there is currently no mechanism to monitor and measure that contribution; the proposals disregard that most developing countries do not have the necessary capacities for monitoring land-cover changes [8
]. The supply chain approach likewise relies on efforts by companies. However, as mentioned above, combating deforestation requires establishing policies, institutions, infrastructure, and incentives that will facilitate those efforts. Furthermore, it is likely that agricultural supply chains will remain informal in conflict-affected areas. For instance, a number of companies that process milk in the Orinoquia do not pay taxes, and therefore monitoring whether or not they follow sustainable manufacturing practices would be a challenge. Achieving zero deforestation and low-carbon development, as such, means going beyond transforming supply chains. Deforestation will also continue if there is a lack of extension services that support efforts to deter agricultural expansion and curb practices and inputs that increase carbon emissions. Colombia actually has a strategy that incorporates this approach and REDD+, which covers both policies and incentives to lower emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. This suggests the need for a broader approach to zero deforestation and low-carbon development. This involves promoting sustainable agricultural practices, improving land-use policies, and developing a sustainable food system. Sustainable food systems aim to: create environment-friendly supply chains; support value chain actors to meet product quality, safety, and environmental standards; provide incentives that can lead to lower carbon emissions within the food system, from production to food waste disposal; and promote responsible food consumption, among other features. Even with concerted efforts by companies, governments, and more, deforestation will continue to happen if the consumption of forest-risk commodities remains at the same level. In order to meet the demand, the same companies may opt to import those commodities, thus exacerbating deforestation across territories.
Fourth, carbon accounting methodologies can be adjusted with the goal of enhancing the potential of climate finance to generate forest conservation, peace, and sustainable food benefits. Improved understanding of the causal links between tropical forest cover and armed conflicts will be needed to this end. There is a common trend that carbon accounting methodologies prioritize intervention in landscapes with historical higher rates of forest-based emissions [145
]. This approach underemphasizes the mitigation potential of landscapes with historic low agricultural development, forests at low risk of deforestation, and degraded lands [115
]. Similarly, landscapes that used to host armed actions may not benefit from land-based mitigation actions, as they typically have lower historical rates of emissions than their more peaceful counterparts [38
]. Reducing deforestation figures prominently as an emissions reduction strategy (REDD+) and as the best bet for fulfilling international commitments to the UNFCCC. REDD+ prioritizes landscapes with higher forest carbon stocks and that simultaneously are at high risk of deforestation. However, each landscape should have the opportunity to develop its strategy based on its own particular conditions. In Colombia, for example, the Amazon region is important for its dense forest cover, yet all of the regions of the country can make contributions toward reducing emissions. Indeed, from a landscape approach perspective, regions with fewer trees (and forests at low historic risk of deforestation and degraded landscapes) are important for taking pressure off forested areas, and may be important for restocking carbon. One such area is the savanna biome of the Orinoquia region, where a diverse landscape constitutes farms, cattle ranches, tree plantations, native savanna, and natural forests. Emissions from the Orinoquia region are comparatively lower than other regions, in part because of the armed conflict. However, with the peace agreement, experts anticipate that conflict would no longer “prevent” investments. Thus, they expect change in the historical trends of key sources of AFOLU emissions and removal. Recent studies have indicated that political stability is attracting greater investors and may lead to increases in economic activities, such as industrial agriculture or livestock, logging, and mining [134
]. This would particularly happen in areas emerging from armed conflicts. Recent reports confirm this, indicating that land-cover change is sharply increasing in areas previously under FARC control [147
]. In addition, uninhabited forests and savannas might provide sites for the relocation of former combatants and displaced farmers [38
Finally, the paper does not aim to foresee the outcomes of the OSIL initiative, but rather to inform emerging scholarly arguments on the potential of climate finance to bring about improved environmental and peacebuilding outcomes. However, at a time when forest carbon storage is being designed and targeted at (post-) conflict areas in Colombia and elsewhere, they might also demonstrate to government agencies (both environmental and non-environmental) the compatibility of programs aimed at reducing forest-based emissions with efforts relating to peacebuilding, forest conservation, and sustainable food production. As such, further examination of the role of climate finance in linking forest conservation, peacebuilding, and rural development is highly relevant. The imperatives for broad contributions from other academic disciplines ranging from a social-ecological and complex adaptive systems [148
] to a more peacebuilding-oriented perspective such as the emerging theory of “environmental peacebuilding” [3
] stem from the undeniable observation that many of the countries that are implementing strategies to reduce forest-based emissions, including Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru, Mexico, and Colombia, host armed conflicts in their forest landscapes [21
], thus emphasizing the relevance of the present study and the use of the Orinoquia as a case in point.