Population growth projections of up to 3 percent annually haven't been heard in Delta County since 2006-07.
But, now those projections are back, and local officials have questions about them.
A representative of the Colorado State Demographer's office speaking in Delta on April 27 forecast 3 percent annual growth for Delta County in the current decade. That rate of growth will raise the county's population from 30,885 to 41,311 by 2020, said Elizabeth Garner.
But, according to comments from local government officials at the session, the state's projections need some revision where Delta County is concerned.
A significant net decrease in the county school enrollment for 2011-12 indicates a population loss here. If so, that loss is likely to keep future growth, in absolute numbers, below the state's projections, Garner was told.
A second question involved the future of North Fork Valley coal mines in light of anti-carbon, anti-coal agendas.
Garner said that she would go back to work on a revised county growth scenario for county government officials that accounts for possible loss of coal mining jobs.
Projections of future growth are never more than educated guesses. They involve collecting data on the past, forming a picture of the present, and then projecting various trends into the future. Forecasts rarely hit the mark.
But in the process of gathering data, forecasters unearth insights about the state of communities which anyone can then use to gauge their own view, and even use to make their own "guesstimates" about the future. Data that Garner presented to her Delta audience included the following points, many gathered from Census 2000 and Census 2010:
• From 2000 to 2010, the county's population increased by 11 percent. Within that 11 percent growth overall, the Hispanic population grew by 37 percent and the over 45-year-old population increased by 50 percent.
• Household size in the county decreased from 2.43 persons to 2.38, which is below the state average.
• Delta County has a higher portion of people over age 65 than the state average.
• The percentage of county households with children dropped from 28 percent to 24 percent, and there was also a decline in absolute numbers.
• Non-family households are growing far faster than family households.
• The number of people age 65 and older who live alone grew by 19 percent.
• Delta County attracts an above average number of retirees. The county has a large segment of aging baby boomers.
• From 2000 to 2010, Colorado's population grew by 1.7 percent. During the same period the ages 55 to 64 segment grew by 6.1 percent.
• By 2030, Colorado's age 65-and-older population will be 1.2 million persons larger than it was in 1990.
• Delta County's age 65-and-older population will increase from 6,100 to 8,400 in this decade.blog comments powered by Disqus