Many of our American readers don't need an article to tell them it was hot. California is experiencing a terrible stretch of heat, forest fires, and power outages. Hopefully none of you have been to Death Valley to see an unspeakable record of 130 ° F last Sunday, so your eyebrows will only go up, not scorched. Beyond the west, parts of the northeast experienced relentlessly hot weather for just weeks. However, NOAA's monthly round-up and outlook could give you a more complete picture of what the weather is like outside your neck of the woods.
Globally, July 2016 was the second warmest July of all time (2019 was the first). It was also the second warmest for North America, although it is slightly lower at the eleventh warmest for the neighboring United States. Temperatures were almost average in the Pacific Northwest and some Central Plains states, but quite warm in the Southwest and extremely warm in the Northeast.
Out of 35 weather station locations with the longest records in the northeast, July was the hottest month at 11. In seven locations including Baltimore, DC and Philadelphia, July also set a record for most days of 90 ° F – for example, this happened 28 times in DC.
From January to July 2020 is the second warmest year in the world. At this point, it is very likely that it will become either number 1 or number 2 by the end of the year. NOAA currently gives a 37 percent chance of setting a new record, although two other groups have that chance at around 70 percent.
As for rainfall, history in the US was mixed. A number of states in the middle third of the US experienced above-average rainfall, while much of the west was dry. Nevada had its 11th driest July, Arizona its 6th driest, and California its 16th driest – which helped set the stage for the current fires.
Over a third of the US is currently in drought, with the worst stretching from Texas to Oregon. Outside that region, Iowa is in drought – with farms hit by noxious winds in a recent derecho storm – and the northeast is also in drought. The rainfall in July was slightly better in many areas of the northeast, but the warmth combined with well below average rainfall in May and June kept things dry.
Several mid-Atlantic and northeastern states had their warmest July in existence.
Above-average rainfall fell in July only in the middle third of the country.
July was particularly dry in the southwest.
Last month the drought area increased from 33% to 37%.
In the coming weeks and months, key temperature patterns in the Pacific have proven interesting. After a lengthy run of neutral conditions between an El Niño and La Niña, colder water has surfaced in the eastern equatorial Pacific, meaning it looks very much like a La Niña. NOAA's forecast now is a La Niña watch, with a roughly 60 percent chance of things going that way this fall and winter. This can have a huge impact on US weather conditions, and as we recently discovered, it was a factor in updating the outlook for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic.
NOAA creates one-month and three-month weather forecasts based on such factors as well as long-term trends and model simulations. These models indicate that September is likely to have above-average temperatures in the west, northeast, and Florida. Alaska is also for the predictable reason that sea ice forms later in the year than it did earlier. Unfortunately, the dry Intermountain West can expect more sub-par rain. Parts of the southeast, on the other hand, are designed for above-average rain, mainly because of the active hurricane season.
Here the chances for September temperatures are above average.
The likelihood of additional rain on the southeast coast increases during an active hurricane season.
The precipitation forecast shifts slightly to October and November.
The outlook through November is … warm.
Good news for drought in some places but not most of the west.
In November the story doesn't look much different. Everything tends to above average temperatures, although the odds are lowest from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest, where a La Niña could send slightly cooler weather. Precipitation prospects are similar too, with perhaps a little relief in Arizona and New Mexico, but with a greater likelihood that dry weather will extend into Oklahoma.
This means that drought conditions are likely to persist or worsen in the Southwest, while improvements are expected in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Iowa, and the Northeast.