The physics of climate change is deceptively simple:
For the past 150 years we have been extracting fossil carbon from the earth in the form of coal, oil and natural gas.
We have burned these fossil fuels to power our industrial society and discharged the carbon dioxide byproduct of combustion into the atmosphere.
The carbon dioxide forms a blanket in the atmosphere that traps energy from the sun close to the earth and raises the temperatures we experience. This is global warming.
Climate change can appear to be an enormously complex problem. There are many competing and conflicting tentacles that lead us into a forest of apparent causes, effects, and ramifications. It is easy to lose sight of the basic issues.
Research started by one individual provides perhaps the most significant geophysical record ever established on this subject. These data point to the cause of climate change and therefore what must be done to keep this phenomenon from making the planet uninhabitable.
Charles David Keeling began looking at atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a post-doctoral researcher at Caltech in 1953. This led him to install a carbon dioxide monitoring station at Mauna Loa in Hawaii in March 1958. Through his leadership efforts and with the help of a broad scientific community, this station has
operated continuously and produced a data record that continues today.
The “Keeling Curve” is maintained by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and remains the gold standard for atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Other individuals and organizations are now supplementing the database. All research and data accumulation has confirmed the correlation between the rising carbon dioxide concentrations and increasing temperatures that define global warming.
The saw-tooth nature of the data line reflects seasonal variation with nature withdrawing carbon dioxide from the air for plant growth during the summer and returning it during the fall and winter.
When Charles Keeling began taking his measurements in 1958, the atmospheric carbon dioxide level was 313 parts per million (ppm). We are over 415 ppm today and research now shows that this is the highest level experienced in at least 800,000 years. The significance of the chart is the unrelenting upward trend. Every year has exceeded the previous year. Data for the more recent years indicates the level of carbon dioxide accumulation is not only increasing each year but also increasing at an increasing rate.
Iowa is home to 4145 wind turbines that produce 37 percent of the state’s energy need; solar panels continue to become more economical as their use is increasing rapidly; vehicles and airplanes are becoming more energy efficient; buildings are being designed to improved energy standards; the public is increasingly aware of
the climate change scenario and the perils we face. And yet, the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere continues to rise. In spite of all the anecdotal evidence to the contrary, clearly we are losing ground against the advance of climate change.
The giants of the fossil fuel industry continue to search for, extract, market and facilitate consumption of coal, gas, oil, and natural gas. The pace of this activity shows no sign of slowing. Somewhere, somehow, all of this energy consumption is reflected in the upward trend of the Keeling Curve. This is the dilemma we face.
Reversing the dynamics of climate change will require continuation and acceleration of all of our alternative energy, conservation, and sustainable living initiatives. This is essential but it isn’t enough. Fossil fuels priorities must change. The Keeling Curve is the scorecard and we are losing.
Larry Koehrsen holds degrees in civil engineering from Iowa State University. He worked in consulting engineering, focusing primarily on environmental issues and projects. He is now retired, lives in Ames, and can be reached at email@example.com