THREE CANADAS: THE WEST
The newly released 2011 census data shows Canada split into three distinct and almost evenly populated regions: The west, Ontario and the east. To further explain the stories of each of these regions, our columnists take an in-depth view. Below, Brian Hutchinson on the West:
The most revealing figure to emerge from the 2011 census released Wednesday has to be this: 30.7.
According to census results, 30.7 represents the proportion of all Canadians now living west of Ontario. For the first time in the nation’s history, Western Canada has a greater population than all of Quebec, the Maritimes, Newfoundland and Labrador combined. The population shift came thanks to the West’s massive resource base and related employment opportunities, of course. Income and corporate tax rates, retirement options, even climate are other factors that favour the West.
But the future depends on new, well-paying jobs and affordable housing, one reason why British Columbia, while still growth-positive, lags behind two other western provinces.
In Alberta and Saskatchewan especially, young families are able to find viable housing options within major metropolitan areas and in their adjacent, suburban communities. Airdrie, which is just north of Calgary, experienced an astonishing 47% growth rate from 2006 to 2011. Okotoks, to the south, saw its population increase 43% and High River, a little further down the highway, grew nearly 21% over the same census period. Strathmore, just east of Calgary, had a 20% growth spurt.
Calgary itself had the highest rate of population growth of any metropolitan area in Canada, at over 12%, with Edmonton just at its heels. And look at Saskatoon: Third highest metropolitan growth rate in Canada. Why? Affordable housing and work that attracts newcomers, mostly immigrants.
Natural population increases — the difference between births and deaths — account for only one-third of growth across Canada, according to Statistics Canada. Migrants from within Canada and immigrants coming from outside its borders make up the bulk.
Immigrants — not migrants — accounted for most of Saskatchewan’s population growth, according to Statscan. The same in Manitoba. The province ranked fifth in total population growth, with Winnipeg’s headcount increasing by a modest 4.8%, to 664,000.
The western experience has always been about immigration. Increasingly, it’s a tale of three distinct sub-regions: Slow but steady Manitoba; a booming, sprawling middle; a mixed bag in B.C., where growth spreads unevenly, as always. Canada’s western-most province continues to suffer higher living costs and lower income rates than Alberta and Saskatchewan. And yet Kelowna, in the province’s interior, saw the nation’s fourth highest metropolitan population growth rate. Vancouver experienced the sixth highest. These two cities are anomalous; Kelowna is a retirement hotbed, attracting well-heeled migrants from the rest of Canada, especially Alberta. Vancouver, meanwhile, is flush with wealthy immigrants, many of whom do not work. Indeed, wages in Vancouver do not correspond at all to the city’s high housing costs. The city is popular, but not especially productive.
The rest of B.C., with a few exceptions, is experiencing slower than average population growth. And the outlook in the hinterlands isn’t great, aside from petroleum-based industries in the province’s northeastern quadrant. The northern coast and central interior are crying for jobs; their mining and wood processing sectors are in major slumps. More mills are shutting down. The Northern Gateway project, once expected to bring 35,000 person-years of employment to the province, may not proceed.
What is happening in this province should serve as warnings, then, to Canada’s engine of prosperity and growth next door. Encourage an even spread of growth. Diversity your economies. Create conditions for housing that workers can afford. Do that, and watch: The population shift will continue for decades to come.