The recent publication of the Climate Change Risk Assessment and the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report reinforce the urgency for Action.
With the IPCC latest report calling it ‘code red for humanity’, we know we’re not doing enough to limit global warming and that our activity is irreversibly changing our climate.
The Welsh Government declared a Climate Emergency on 29 April 2019 and on 1 May 2019 the Climate Emergency declaration motion was passed by the National Assembly. Conwy County Borough Council declared a climate emergency on 9 May 2019 and Denbighshire County Council in July 2019. These declarations draw attention to the magnitude and significance of the most globally defining challenge of our time.
The Welsh Government has committed to achieving a carbon neutral public sector by 2030. It has published Prosperity for All: A Low Carbon Wales, which sets out 100 policies and proposals to meet the 2020 carbon emissions targets.
In February 2021, the Welsh Government laid regulations in the Senedd which will formally commit Wales to legally binding targets to deliver the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 but declared its ambitions to reach net-zero before 2050. The Senedd also became one of the first parliaments globally to declare a nature emergency, recognising the critical condition of the environment in Wales and globally, calling for legally binding targets to limit biodiversity loss (see our ‘natural environment and biodiversity’ topic for further information).
The established North Wales Decarbonisation Partnership has been leading the way on decarbonisation activity across respective organisational boundaries, and to establish links with PSB’s; to identify potential opportunities and synergies for collaboration.
Other Projects / Case Studies
Landscape and Nature Recovery in a Changing Climate
The effects of climate change are increasingly being experienced within the Clwydian Range & Dee Valley Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB). A plan is being developed for community, stakeholder and cross sector action on landscape with the intention is that it will encourage the right adaptation and mitigation measures in the right places. This will have benefits for natural beauty, biodiversity, cultural heritage and well-being in a designated landscape.
Conwy Environmental resilience sub-group
The Conwy and Denbighshire PSB recognised that Climate Change is one of the defining issues of our time and the biggest threat to our well-being – globally and locally. To help support this priority, it established a Conwy Environment Sub Group to make a difference locally, the PSB sub group developed a Community Green Pledge initiative that community groups and organisations can make to reduce their impact on the environment Community Green Pledges.
The Climate Change Risk Assessment 3 Summary for Wales identifies some of the high magnitude risks requiring action now. These include:
Impacts on the natural environment, more pests, pathogens and invasive non-native species, damage to cultural assets;
more flooding, coastal erosions, damage to homes and business, as well as energy, transport, water supplies and information technology;
other changing weather impacts from high temperatures, winds and lightning;
direct impact of high temperatures on health and well-being, disruption to health and social care from extreme weather;
impacts on food availability, safety and security from international impacts.
Right now the world is about 1.2C warmer than it was at the end of the 19th Century, with significant impacts all over the planet. In Wales, the most recent decade (2008-2017) was 0.8°C warmer than the average temperature experienced in 1961-1990.
To date, the average annual rainfall across Wales has not changed markedly. However, there is some evidence of seasonal changes and more heavy rainfall events. In the past 10 years, UK winters have been 5% wetter on average than 1981-2010. Summers have been 11% wetter during the same period.
Evidence suggests that there has been an acceleration of sea level rise in recent years around the UK, and has risen by around 16cm since the start of the 20th Century and will continue to rise over the next century. Sea level rise will continue to cause increased erosion of coastal habitats as well as threatening infrastructure such as railways along the coast in North Wales. Sea level around Cardiff, for example, is projected to increase by 15-32cm under a low scenario and 20-39cm under a high scenario by 2050. By the end of the century, sea level around Cardiff is projected to increase by 27-69cm under a low scenario and 51-131cm under a high scenario. Sea levels will continue to rise beyond 2100 but the amount is very uncertain.
More intense rainfall and rising sea levels will increase the risk of flooding in Wales. Managing the risk from flooding is a priority for the Welsh Government and current estimates show that over 245,000 properties in Wales are at risk from all sources of flooding. Flooding has a wide range of impacts on communities, including loss of homes, income and negative effects on mental health and well-being over long periods of time (see our ‘flooding’ topic for further information).
Wales has experienced some significant storm events, including Storm Brian in October 2017, Storm Bronagh in September 2018, where around half a months’ worth of rain fell on Sennybridge, Powys, in 24hrs, and Storm Callum in October 2018 where flooding in parts of Carmarthenshire was the worst in over 30 years. More recently, Storm Ciara (8-9 February 2020) and Dennis (15-16 February 2020) were two of the most severe and widespread flooding incidents experienced in Wales in many years.
The UK also experiences heatwaves, which can lead to droughts and wildfire. 2018 was the joint hottest summer on record, with the Met Office reporting an average air temperature of 1.5°C above the long-term average. In Wales, June 2018 was the warmest on record dating back to 1884. High temperatures and low rainfall, along with increased demand for water, led to drought across Wales during 2018, with rainfall widely less than 75% of average. All of the 10 warmest years on record in the UK have occurred since 2002, with half of these occurring since 2010.
Although greenhouse gas emissions produced in Wales are declining, greenhouse gas emissions embedded in imported goods and services represent around one-third of total territorial emissions and have shown limited reductions since 2007. China is the largest source of both imported goods and emissions in the UK.
 State of the UK Climate 2019, Mike Kendon, Mark McCarthy, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Andrew Matthews, Tim Sparks, Judith Garforth
 Ecological and Carbon Footprints of Wales 2015 (Update to 2011), Stockholm Environment Institute and GHD
The climate and nature emergencies are the two biggest challenges facing our future generations. The level of global warming depends on a number of factors. The most important is the amount of emissions produced in the coming years. Emissions are greenhouse gases released into our atmosphere. The accumulation of these gases has a warming effect on the globe, which in turn leads to changes in climatic conditions.
The crises of climate change and biodiversity loss are inextricably linked. Biodiversity loss is made worse by climate change, and vice versa. However, creating and restoring biodiverse habitats on land and in our seas lock up carbon, and nature can also provide solutions for helping us to adapt to climate change, such as by reducing flood risk. This inextricable link between the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change is why we need to tackle them together.
Everything that we do, from the water we drink, air we breathe and food we eat is all dependent on the natural world. The processes that keep our reservoirs clean and the food in the fields growing are all underpinned by the wildlife – or biodiversity – that surrounds it, and without any of these, other species simply would not be able to survive.
In 2021, the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) released the third independent assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3). Key findings from the report show that adaptation has not kept pace with evidence that the climate risk is likely to be more severe than previously thought. The CCC have also produced a Summary for Wales (CCC 2021, Evidence for the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: Summary for Wales) which shows that 26 risks from climate change have increased since the second risk assessment carried out 5 years ago.
CCRA 3 also lists new risks that did not appear in CCRA 2. The Summary for Wales identifies the following risks as high magnitude, requiring action now:
The impact of climate change on the natural environment (terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine, forests and agriculture)
Increases in the range, quantities and negative consequences of pests, pathogens and invasive non-native species
More frequent flooding and coastal erosion, leading to: (a) damage to coastal businesses; (b) increased severity and frequency of flooding to homes and communities; and (c) damage to infrastructure services (energy, transport, water supplies and ICT)
The impact of high temperatures, high winds and lightning on the transport network
The impact of high temperatures on people’s health and wellbeing
Extreme weather events causing disruption of health and social care services
Changes in temperature, precipitation, groundwater and other landscape changes causing damage to cultural heritage assets
International impacts of climate change (e.g., food availability, safety and security, risks to international law/governance) that could affect the UK through disruption of trade routes, supply chains and public health)
NRW’s State of Natural Resources Report 2020 draws on the Welsh Doughnut Report 2020 published by Oxfam, which evaluates how well we are living within sustainable levels in respect of a suite of both environmental and societal parameters. Currently, Wales is not meeting goals related to society and well-being, nor are we within sustainable limits for our use of environmental resources. In order to address the challenges faced by climate change, a transformative approach is needed, ideas that need exploring in the future Wellbeing plan for Conwy and Denbighshire are outlined below.
Recognising that our food system is at risk from a changing climate. It also directly contributes towards climate change, with agriculture contributing around 16% of Wales’ total greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, reduced meat and dairy consumption is an efficient way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions but implementing this could be a significant challenge as it requires lifestyle changes and can impact on the economies of rural communities.
Support adoption of low carbon agricultural practices and re-thinking land-use practice. The new Agriculture Act for Wales provides a unique opportunity to transition to and reward sustainable farming and land management that restores nature, tackles climate change and provides society with a wide range of essential public goods. This piece of legislation will play a critical role in determining the state of Welsh ecosystems on which we and future generations depend.
The most effective and most sustainable carbon storage solutions on the planet include restoration of damaged peatlands and maintenance of condition of healthy peatlands.
Trees and woodlands have a vital role to play in helping to tackle both the climate and nature emergencies, for example by sequestering carbon and helping to mitigate some of the impacts of climate change. This applies not only to rural woodlands, but also to the urban environment, such as street trees and trees in parks and gardens.
Converting lawns around public buildings to biodiverse meadows makes environmental and financial sense. Supporting the identification, with the Conwy and Denbighshire PSB, local communities and landowners, of place-based opportunity spaces for woodland creation and tree planting will enhance people’s connection to nature and deliver the multiple environmental and human health benefits provided by trees and woodlands.
Housing conditions affect people’s health and energy use. Eighteen percent of homes in Wales pose an unacceptable risk to health, and 12% of households are in fuel poverty. Damp and mouldy homes increase respiratory problems by between 30% and 50%, especially in children. Investing in energy efficient homes lowers energy use, reduces overall energy demand in the economy and makes individual households, and Wales, more resilient to fuel price fluctuations.
Energy and decarbonisation is a fast-moving field with discussions happening around the role of many different technologies, including hydrogen, electrification and carbon capture and storage. The role of consumers is a key part of the energy system, in terms of reducing demand via energy efficiency and of changes in supply via local generation. Wales has recently committed to net-zero by 2050, and this is set in legislation alongside a series of carbon budgets every five years and decadal targets. The Welsh Government’s ambition is a net-zero public sector by 2030. The Committee on Climate Change projects a likely doubling of electricity demand in Wales by 2050 due to new demands from the societal transition to renewable electricity sources.
The marine energy programme has the potential to be an important driver of investment and jobs. Given Wales’ extensive wind, wave and tidal energy resource, marine renewable energy development has the potential to deliver low carbon energy at considerable scale, beyond that already achieved in Welsh waters.
Enabling the movement towards a circular economy is an important factor in decarbonising Wales, further reducing the amount of waste generated and ensuring that produced waste can be truly reused or recycled is key. Where neither is possible, the waste is disposed of appropriately.
Green infrastructure has an important contribution to ensure the long-term sustainability of towns and city centres and the wider benefits to people and the benefits from their natural resources. It can help to create an environment that is more attractive to both people and wildlife, deal with problems like surface water flooding as well as encourage active travel and investment into town and city centres.
Integrated and sustainable transport options prevent the negative effects of current transport patterns on human health and improve ecosystem resilience. Thirty percent of car journeys in Europe cover distances of less than 3 km; 50% cover less than 5 km. These distances can be covered within 15–20 minutes by bicycle or 30– 50 minutes by brisk walking.
The use of public transport in the UK is around 95% less than the same period last year (2019), with reductions in visits and length of stay at UK transit stations of up to 75% in March. These have rebounded since, but the reductions remain significant. These reductions are of course in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but significant behaviour change is required to increase public transport use.
Sustainable transport policies promote active mobility and public transport use. Such policies help reduce air pollution, noise and greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and congestion, as well as improving road safety and offering better protection of landscapes, and urban cohesion.
The use of digital technology has accelerated new ways of working and connecting with each other, from reducing time spent commuting, to more flexible ways of studying and spending more time with family. Opinion polls from around the world show that people want to protect the environment and preserve the positives that have emerged from the crisis as society recovers.
The overarching risks of climate change and biodiversity loss increasingly effects people’s health and well-being. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events including heatwaves, drought and severe storms, and is modifying the transmission of infectious diseases.
Those most vulnerable in society, or in vulnerable situations, such as the older people, those living in relative poverty, the inactive, the unemployed, those at risk of flood or of poor air quality or high levels of environmental noise, are at a higher risk of increasing health burdens and lower levels of healthy life expectancy because of known and avoidable environmental risk.
There is still a need to build and maintain sustainable flood defences, but also to recognise the importance of improving awareness and understanding of risk, encouraging people to act to improve their own resilience. A shift in behaviours can take time but this can be accelerated with incentives and social approaches to improving community flood responses.
If everyone on Earth used natural resources at the same rate as Wales, 2.5 planets would be needed. This over-consumption of natural resources is putting a strain on ecosystems in Wales and world-wide.
In Wales, the impacts of climate change will not be felt equally across the country – economically and socially disadvantaged people will be disproportionately impacted. Existing inequalities are likely to be compounded, with people living in lower-income areas and more exposed locations having fewer available resources to mitigate and adapt to changes in the climate.
Stark emissions inequalities exist between the wealthiest and poorest people. This trend looks set to continue at both the global and national level. The richest 10 per cent of the UK population are responsible for a quarter of UK total emissions, producing over four times more emissions than the poorest 50 per cent.
The “Inequality in a Future Wales” report states:
“The poorest and most marginalised populations are least responsible for climate change but are a) the most likely to be exposed to its negative effects b) more susceptible to damage and c) have the least resources to respond, cope and recover. Climate change mitigation could benefit marginalised communities if done well but could increase inequalities if the impacts on different groups in society are not factored in. It is important that climate change does not become separated from equalities thinking and understanding, or limited to decarbonisation when it is just one part of achieving sustainability and well-being for people and planet. The broad portfolio of the new Climate Change Ministry is therefore welcomed as an important opportunity for integration.”
 Dr Sara MacBride-Stewart & Dr Alison Parken (2021). Inequality in a Future Wales: Areas for action in work, climate and demographic change. The findings are summarised within a Summary Report and ‘Bite-size’ version with Easy Read and BSL versions available also. For those who are interested in the more detailed analysis you can access the full technical report.
The Area Statement process is facilitated by Natural Resources Wales under the requirements of the Environment Act (Wales) 2016 and provides the space for stakeholders to co-create the resilient environment we all need to survive and thrive in Conwy and Denbighshire. During a number of actual and online workshops from 2019 to 2021, participants had the opportunity to share their insights, discuss the local context, understand the challenges in the local area before co-creating interventions that would ultimately contribute to creating a more resilient and sustainable future for us all.
During the area statement process people told us that:-
We need to use nature-based solutions to tackle climate change, such as improving management of forests and peatlands to increase greater carbon storage and capture, and natural flood management to reduce the risk of flooding. Which may include working with landowners and managers to change farming practice to improve biodiversity and storage of carbon.
We need to look at the Welsh environment in full: both marine and terrestrial and their contributions to carbon sequestration.
Stakeholders wanted to see joined up working across North Wales on climate mitigation and adaptation , It is clear that individuals and organisations feel that this is a priority that must be taken forward as a matter of urgency, and getting leadership buy in to the Climate Emergency declaration is key to delivering on this agenda.
Stakeholders wanted to learn from NRW’s Carbon Positive Project, and ensure the findings are shared with the PSB’s. The Carbon Positive Project has shown how NRW can address its carbon impact across buildings, transport, managing land and operational assets, and procurement of goods and services.
During engagement with communities in Denbighshire people have said:
The council should support communities (inc. local businesses) to tackle climate change by giving them the resources to take action and to feel empowered to do so.
Increase electric / environmental infrastructure e.g. increase EV charging points and car parking spaces.
New planning applications for housing and schools should require environmental infrastructure is mandatory e.g. heat pumps, solar panels etc
During engagement with communities in Conwy people have said:
Need more opportunities to reuse (e.g. repair schemes) than recycle – recycling should be the last option, more education needed on what can/can’t be recycled but ultimately need to remove high amount of packaging from circulation
Sustainable / green travel and more active travel routes and schemes (e-bike / scooter hire)
Low traffic zones
More education on climate and nature emergencies at school
Support for eco homes – new build standards and help for existing properties (insulation, solar, ground pumps). But financial support needed as these solutions are expensive.
Promote local produce to reduce food miles
More investment in renewable energy, e.g. tidal
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