Can someone brainstorm hypotheticals for the UK Parliament to consent to a second referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom (henceforth "Indyref2")? This doesn't duplicate How could Scotland become independent given that Theresa May rejected a referendum?, which was asked in March 2017 and answered in July 2017.
Disclaimers against deus ex machina. Rule out black swans.
No superweapons. The change must be realistically justified.
No sudden increases in wealth. Scotland can't just suddenly discover gold or precious minerals, and pay the U.K. for independence.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is still repeating her demands for Indyref2. On Dec 1 2020, Scotland’s First Minister said she will use next May’s Holyrood election to try to win a mandate to hold an independence referendum “in the early part of the new Parliament”. I can't imagine how this will happen before the next UK general election on 2 May 2024, even if the UK reaches no deal on Brexit and trades with the EU on WTO terms. Here are my reasons.
- I can't imagine why Boris Johnson would reverse his rejection in January 2020.
Nicola Sturgeon's request for a referendum was rejected by the UK government in January 2020. In his official response, Boris Johnson wrote that Sturgeon and Salmond had promised that the 2014 referendum would be a "once in a generation" vote, that both the Scottish and UK governments had pledged to implement the outcome of that vote, and that his government "cannot agree to any request for a transfer of power that would lead to further independence referendums".
However, the UK government has repeatedly said it would not grant the consent that Ms Sturgeon has argued would be needed if any referendum was to be legal. And Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has said there should not be another referendum for "25 or 40 years".
- The UK government and SNP (Scottish National Party) won't hold a referendum amidst COVID19, which has to be mitigated and curbed first. Two-thirds of SNP voters want Covid recovery before Scottish independence referendum.
2022 appears to be the earliest date. One-quarter of the world may not get a vaccine until 2022, experts warn. Harvard University researchers predict that recurrent winter outbreaks will probably occur after the first, most severe pandemic wave; prolonged or intermittent physical distancing may be necessary into 2022; and a resurgence is possible as late as 2024. According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, a “profound degree” of herd immunity won’t likely happen until the end of 2021 or beginning of 2022, he said, which is why he predicts public health measures such as face masks and social distancing will continue until then..
- I can't imagine how else the SNP can convince the UK government. The SNP probably cannot insurrect violence, as Scotland doesn't have its own military. The British Armed Forces can probably suppress any attempt at violence.