Most people know about the prisoner’s dilemma even if it’s just intuitively rather than explicitly—
Two people are accused of a joint crime. Police detectives put both suspects in individual interrogation rooms. They offer each of them a deal—if you’re first to talk, you’ll get jail time of just two years. If the other party talks first (ie, rats you out before you can do the same to them), you get 9-years, and the other accused gets 2.
What they don’t tell you is that if you both stick together (ie, don’t talk), you both get 3 and ½ years.
In the first scenario, total prison time is 11-years; in the second, it’s only 7. So, it makes sense for both of you to stick together. However, the temptation is to go for the 2 before the other person can. What do you do?
More importantly, you have to ask yourself: What will your partner in crime do? Will they hold fast to the plan and not rat you out.
It’s same deal in the military—
Three troopers are in a foxhole together. They are under severe attack that threatens to overrun their position. If you run but the other two soldiers stick thereby holding up the attackers whilst you make your escape, your chances of surviving are 0.667, but theirs are just 0.333 each. Of course, you are a coward, but you’re alive and they are (likely) dead.
If you all run away, your attackers will probably kill you all—each of you have just a 0.167 change of surviving (it’s much each easier to render someone deceased if you shoot them in the back while they are fleeing). Now, you are all cowards and all dead.
But if the three of you stick together in the tranche and keep firing, your chances of survival as a group go up to 0.500 each.
In scenario 1, your collective probability of survival is 1.333, in scenario 2, just 0.501. However, in scenario 3, it jumps to 1.500. Hence, sticking together is best but again you must ask yourself the questions: What will your fellow marines do?
Now how about a civilian example? OK, let’s try tech—
You and a fellow coder are co-managers of a team of hackers. You’ve both heard that a competitor is looking to recruit whole teams to speed up a new product launch. You know if you go over first, you’ll get a salary of $250,000 but if your co-manager goes first, s/he gets that $250k, you only get $125k. If you both go over together (which shows a) you’re not desperate and b) strengthens your bargaining position), you both get $200,000.
So, sticking together creates total compensation of $400,000. Splitting apart, you get a total $375,000 and one of you is a big loser.
Again, ask the question: How much do you trust your co-manager?
Fear of loss in humans is much greater than desire for gain, which means most people are hugely tempted to be first to rat out a co-conspirator, first to desert their fellow foot soldiers or first to get their foot in the door for a new job.
Trust is hard to establish and quick to vanish.
Here’s a great piece by Brené Brown called Anatomy of Trust; it’s worth watching:
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