  Estimation of excess deaths due to a natural disaster is an important public
health problem. The CDC provides guidelines to fill death certificates to help
determine the death toll of such events. But, even when followed by medical
examiners, the guidelines can not guarantee a precise calculation of excess
deaths.%particularly due to the ambiguity of indirect deaths. We propose two
models to estimate excess deaths due to an emergency. The first model is
simple, permitting excess death estimation with little data through a profile
likelihood method. The second model is more flexible, incorporating: temporal
variation, covariates, and possible population displacement; while allowing
inference on how the emergency's effect changes with time. The models are
implemented to build confidence intervals estimating Hurricane Maria's death
toll.
