  Discoveries come through exclusions, confirmations or revolutionary findings
with respect to a theory canon populated by the Standard Model (SM) and beyond
the SM (BSM) theories. Guaranteed discoveries are accomplished only through
pursuit of BSM exclusion/confirmation, and thus require investment in the
continual formation and analysis of a vibrant theory canon combined with
investment in experiment with demonstrated capacity to make BSM
exclusions/confirmations. Risks develop when steering away from BSM-oriented
work toward its methodological rival, "signalism," which seeks to realize SM
falsification or revolutionary discoveries outside the context of any BSM
rationale. It is argued that such an approach leads to inscrutable exertions
that reduce prospects for all discovery. The concepts are applied to the
European Strategy Update, which seeks to identify future investments in
forefront experiment that bring a balance of guaranteed and prospective value.
