  We investigate how crises alter societies by analyzing the timing and
channels of change using a longitudinal multi-wave survey of a representative
sample of Americans throughout 2020. This methodology allows us to overcome
some of the limitations of previous studies and uncover novel insights: (1)
individuals with a negative personal experience during a crisis become more
pro-welfare spending, in particular for policies they perceive will benefit
them personally, and they become less trusting of institutions; (2) indirect
shocks or the mere exposure to the crisis doesn't have a similar effect; (3)
policy preferences and institutional trust can change quickly after a negative
experience; and (4) consuming partisan media can mitigate or exacerbate these
effects by distorting perceptions of reality. In an experiment, we find that
exposing individuals to the same information can recalibrate distorted
perceptions with lasting effects. Using a machine learning model to test for
heterogeneous treatment effects, we find a negative personal experience did not
make individuals more responsive to the information treatment, suggesting that
lived and perceived experiences play an equally important role in changing
preferences during a crisis.
