  There has been great concern in the UK that people from the BAME (Black And
Minority Ethnic) community have a far higher risk of dying from Covid19 than
those of other ethnicities. However, the overall fatalities data from the
Government's ONS (Office of National Statistics) most recent report on deaths
by religion shows that Jews (very few of whom are classified as BAME) have a
much higher risk than those of religions (Hindu, Sikh, Muslim) with
predominantly BAME people. This apparently contradictory result is, according
to the ONS statistical analysis, implicitly explained by age as the report
claims that, when 'adjusted for age' Muslims have the highest fatality risk.
However, the report fails to provide the raw data to support this. There are
many factors other than just age that must be incorporated into any analysis of
the observed data before making definitive conclusions about risk based on
religion/ethnicity. We propose the need for a causal model for this. If we
discount unknown genetic factors, then religion and ethnicity have NO impact at
all on a person's Covid19 death risk once we know their age, underlying medical
conditions, work/living conditions, and extent of social distancing.
