  Fashion is a multi-billion dollar industry with social and economic
implications worldwide. To gain popularity, brands want to be represented by
the top popular models. As new faces are selected using stringent (and often
criticized) aesthetic criteria, \emph{a priori} predictions are made difficult
by information cascades and other fundamental trend-setting mechanisms.
However, the increasing usage of social media within and without the industry
may be affecting this traditional system. We therefore seek to understand the
ingredients of success of fashion models in the age of Instagram. Combining
data from a comprehensive online fashion database and the popular mobile
image-sharing platform, we apply a machine learning framework to predict the
tenure of a cohort of new faces for the 2015 Spring\,/\,Summer season
throughout the subsequent 2015-16 Fall\,/\,Winter season. Our framework
successfully predicts most of the new popular models who appeared in 2015. In
particular, we find that a strong social media presence may be more important
than being under contract with a top agency, or than the aesthetic standards
sought after by the industry.
