  This work introduces a model of Future Technology Transformations for the
power sector (FTT:Power), a representation of global power systems based on
market competition, induced technological change (ITC) and natural resource use
and depletion. It is the first component of a family of sectoral bottom-up
models of technology, designed for integration into the global macroeconometric
model E3MG. ITC occurs as a result of technological learning produced by
cumulative investment and leads to highly nonlinear, irreversible and path
dependent technological transitions. The model uses a dynamic coupled set of
logistic differential equations. As opposed to traditional bottom-up energy
models based on systems optimisation, such differential equations offer an
appropriate treatment of the times and structure of change involved in sectoral
technology transformations, as well as a much reduced computational load.
Resource use and depletion are represented by local cost-supply curves, which
give rise to different regional energy landscapes. The model is explored for a
single global region using two simple scenarios, a baseline and a mitigation
case where the price of carbon is gradually increased. While a constant price
of carbon leads to a stagnant system, mitigation produces successive technology
transitions leading towards the gradual decarbonisation of the global power
sector.
