  We study the diffusion of shocks in the global financial cycle and global
liquidity conditions to emerging and developing economies. We show that the
classification according to their external trade patterns (as commodities' net
exporters or net importers) allows to evaluate the relative importance of
international monetary spillovers and their impact on the domestic financial
cycle volatility -i.e., the coefficient of variation of financial spreads and
risks. Given the relative importance of commodity trade in the economic
structure of these countries, our study reveals that the sign and size of the
trade balance of commodity goods are key parameters to rationalize the impact
of global financial and liquidity conditions. Hence, the sign and volume of
commodity external trade will define the effect on countries' financial
spreads. We implement a two-equation dynamic panel data model for 33 countries
during 1999:Q1-2020:Q4 that identifies the effect of global conditions on the
countries' commodities terms of trade and financial spreads, first in a direct
way, and then by a feedback mechanism by which the terms of trade have an
asymmetric additional influence on spreads.
