  This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced
by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to
construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error
indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this
distribution can be interpreted as the (epistemic) uncertainty introduced by
the reduced-order model. To model normed errors, the method employs existing
rigorous error bounds and residual norms as indicators; numerical experiments
show that the method leads to a near-optimal expected effectivity in contrast
to typical error bounds. To model errors in general outputs, the method uses
dual-weighted residuals---which are amenable to uncertainty control---as
indicators. Experiments illustrate that correcting the reduced-order-model
output with this surrogate can improve prediction accuracy by an order of
magnitude; this contrasts with existing `multifidelity correction' approaches,
which often fail for reduced-order models and suffer from the curse of
dimensionality. The proposed error surrogates also lead to a notion of
`probabilistic rigor', i.e., the surrogate bounds the error with specified
probability.
