  We have now tested the Finch Committee's Hypothesis that Green Open Access
Mandates are ineffective in generating deposits in institutional repositories.
With data from ROARMAP on institutional Green OA mandates and data from ROAR on
institutional repositories, we show that deposit number and rate is
significantly correlated with mandate strength (classified as 1-12): The
stronger the mandate, the more the deposits. The strongest mandates generate
deposit rates of 70%+ within 2 years of adoption, compared to the un-mandated
deposit rate of 20%. The effect is already detectable at the national level,
where the UK, which has the largest proportion of Green OA mandates, has a
national OA rate of 35%, compared to the global baseline of 25%. The conclusion
is that, contrary to the Finch Hypothesis, Green Open Access Mandates do have a
major effect, and the stronger the mandate, the stronger the effect (the Liege
ID/OA mandate, linked to research performance evaluation, being the strongest
mandate model). RCUK (as well as all universities, research institutions and
research funders worldwide) would be well advised to adopt the strongest Green
OA mandates and to integrate institutional and funder mandates.
