  In this policy paper, we implement the epidemiological SIR to estimate the
basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ at national and state level. We also
developed the statistical machine learning model to predict the cases ahead of
time. Our analysis indicates that the situation of Punjab
($\mathcal{R}_0\approx 16$) is not good. It requires immediate aggressive
attention. We see the $\mathcal{R}_0$ for Madhya Pradesh (3.37) , Maharastra
(3.25) and Tamil Nadu (3.09) are more than 3. The $\mathcal{R}_0$ of Andhra
Pradesh (2.96), Delhi (2.82) and West Bengal (2.77) is more than the India's
$\mathcal{R}_0=2.75$, as of 04 March, 2020. India's $\mathcal{R}_0=2.75$ (as of
04 March, 2020) is very much comparable to Hubei/China at the early disease
progression stage. Our analysis indicates that the early disease progression of
India is that of similar to China. Therefore, with lockdown in place, India
should expect as many as cases if not more like China. If lockdown works, we
should expect less than 66,224 cases by May 01,2020. All data and \texttt{R}
code for this paper is available from
\url{https://github.com/sourish-cmi/Covid19}
