  Approximate dynamic programming (ADP) has proven itself in a wide range of
applications spanning large-scale transportation problems, health care, revenue
management, and energy systems. The design of effective ADP algorithms has many
dimensions, but one crucial factor is the stepsize rule used to update a value
function approximation. Many operations research applications are
computationally intensive, and it is important to obtain good results quickly.
Furthermore, the most popular stepsize formulas use tunable parameters and can
produce very poor results if tuned improperly. We derive a new stepsize rule
that optimizes the prediction error in order to improve the short-term
performance of an ADP algorithm. With only one, relatively insensitive tunable
parameter, the new rule adapts to the level of noise in the problem and
produces faster convergence in numerical experiments.
