  The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on the
national healthcare system in England. In order to predict the effect of the
local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data
streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital
progression model, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. We
named this model EpiBeds. Data from a partially complete patient-pathway
line-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration that
individuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fitted
EpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enabling
estimation of the proportion of individuals that follow different clinical
pathways, and the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic. The
construction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patient
pathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to the
pandemic, EpiBeds has provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bed
occupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.
