  We estimate the reduction in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 achievable by
surveillance testing of a susceptible population at different frequencies,
comparing the cases of both the original Wuhan strain and the Delta variant. We
estimate the viral dynamics using viral copy number at first detection combined
with considerations arising from aerosol transmission. We take into account the
recent findings that infected vaccinated adults may have live viral loads at
the same level as infected unvaccinated adults. Our estimates suggest that
twice weekly testing, which was adequate for the original strains of SARS-CoV-2
will be insufficient on its own to contain the spread of the Delta variant of
concern. We exclude consideration of contact tracing since the rapidity of the
onset of viral titre in the case of the Delta variant suggests that unless
contact tracing and quarantine are performed very rapidly (ie. much less than a
day), these mitigations will be of minimal impact in reducing transmission.
These crude estimates do not take into account heterogeneity of susceptibility,
social activity, and compliance, nor do they include the additional reduction
in transmission that could be achieved by masking and social distancing. In the
setting of a large public university, these considerations suggest that
risk-targeted testing of vaccinated students, staff and faculty combined with
surveillance testing of all unvaccinated individuals is the most efficient way
to reduce transmission of COVID-19.
