  Estimating success rates for programmes aiming to reintegrate theunemployed
into the workforce is essential for good stewardship of publicfinances. At the
current moment, the methods used for this task arebased on the historical
performance of comparable programmes. In lightof Brexit and Covid-19
simultaneously causing a shock to the labourmarket in the UK we developed an
estimation method that is basedon fundamental factors involved - workforce
demand and supply - asopposed to the historical values which are quickly
becoming irrelevant.With an average error of 3.9% of the re-integration success
rate, ourmodel outperforms the best benchmark known to us by 53%
