  Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman must be commended for their clear
identification of causes and cures to the planning fallacy in "Delusions of
Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives' Decisions" (HBR July 2003). Their
look at overoptimism, anchoring, competitor neglect, and the outside view in
forecasting is highly useful to executives and forecasters. However, Lovallo
and Kahneman underrate one source of bias in forecasting - the deliberate
"cooking" of forecasts to get ventures started.
