  We leverage new data on daily individual-level jail records and exploit the
timing of incarceration to estimate the causal effects of jail incarceration on
voting from jail in 2020. We find that registered voters booked into county
jails for the full duration of 2020 voting days were on average 46% less likely
to vote in 2020, relative to registered voters booked into the same jails
within 7-42 days after Election Day. The estimated negative effect of
incarceration on voting from jail was much larger for Black registered voters,
who were 78% less likely to vote in 2020 if booked into county jails for the
full duration of 2020 voting days, relative to Black registered voters booked
into the same jails just after Election Day. Placebo tests indicate no effects
of 2020 jail incarceration on the 2012 or 2016 turnout of registered voters. We
find inconsistent effects of jail incarceration on voter registration in 2020,
and effect sizes of comparable magnitude for turnout unconditional on
registration status. Our findings reveal the pressing need to enable
voting-eligible incarcerated individuals to exercise their constitutional right
to vote, and to address troubling racial disparities in the effect of jail
incarceration on the exercise of the right to vote.
