  Electricity storage systems (ESS) are hailed by many scholars and
practitioners as a key element of the future electricity systems and a key step
toward the transition to renewables . Nonetheless, the global speed of ESS
implementation is relatively slow, and among possible reasons is the lack of
viable business models. We developed an agent-based model to simulate the
behavior of ESS within the Dutch electricity market. We adopted an exploratory
modeling analysis (EMA) approach to investigate the effects of two specific
business models on the value of ESS from the perspective of both investors and
the government under uncertainties in the ESS technical and economics
characteristics, and uncertainties in market conditions and regulations. Our
results show ESS is not profitable in most scenarios, and generally wholesale
arbitrage business model leads to more profit than reserve capacity. In
addition, ESS economic and technical characteristics play more important roles
in the value of ESS than market conditions, and carbon pricing.
