  Social Internet content plays an increasingly critical role in many domains,
including public health, disaster management, and politics. However, its
utility is limited by missing geographic information; for example, fewer than
1.6% of Twitter messages (tweets) contain a geotag. We propose a scalable,
content-based approach to estimate the location of tweets using a novel yet
simple variant of gaussian mixture models. Further, because real-world
applications depend on quantified uncertainty for such estimates, we propose
novel metrics of accuracy, precision, and calibration, and we evaluate our
approach accordingly. Experiments on 13 million global, comprehensively
multi-lingual tweets show that our approach yields reliable, well-calibrated
results competitive with previous computationally intensive methods. We also
show that a relatively small number of training data are required for good
estimates (roughly 30,000 tweets) and models are quite time-invariant
(effective on tweets many weeks newer than the training set). Finally, we show
that toponyms and languages with small geographic footprint provide the most
useful location signals.
