  A system responding to a stochastic driving signal can be interpreted as
computing, by means of its dynamics, an implicit model of the environmental
variables. The system's state retains information about past environmental
fluctuations, and a fraction of this information is predictive of future ones.
The remaining nonpredictive information reflects model complexity that does not
improve predictive power, and thus represents the ineffectiveness of the model.
We expose the fundamental equivalence between this model inefficiency and
thermodynamic inefficiency, measured by dissipation. Our results hold
arbitrarily far from thermodynamic equilibrium and are applicable to a wide
range of systems, including biomolecular machines. They highlight a profound
connection between the effective use of information and efficient thermodynamic
operation: any system constructed to keep memory about its environment and to
operate with maximal energetic efficiency has to be predictive.
