  An investor is estimating net present value of a firm project and performs
risk analysis. Usually it is created portfolio hierarchies and make comparison
of variants of project based on these hierarchies. Then one finds that
portfolio which corresponds to the particular needs of individual groups within
the firm. We have formulated a new type of NPV analysis based on the fact that
normal distribution of NPV is observed for some projects in some industries.
The expected risk of the project is given by variance, in which there is the
standard deviation of the year n cash flow, the standard deviation of the
investment I in the time zero, the correlation coefficient of the year n cash
flow deviation from the average and of the investment I at time zero deviation
from the mean investment at time zero, the correlation coefficient of the year
n cash flow deviation from the average and of the year n' cash flow deviation
from the average. The aim function of the investor into the project was found.
The investor is characterized by the constant A. The larger constant A the
larger preference is given to the project NPV and the larger acceptable risk of
the project, and vice versa. We have found that there are contributions in
which we have the aim-function-like contribution to the aim function, which is
discounted and in which the risk of the n-th year risk is discounted in the
second order. Further there is aim-function-like contribution to the
aim-function which comes from the initial investment I and its risk.
