  Human activities increasingly take place in online environments, providing
novel opportunities for relating individual behaviours to population-level
outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a simple generative model for the
collective behaviour of millions of social networking site users who are
deciding between different software applications. Our model incorporates two
distinct components: one is associated with recent decisions of users, and the
other reflects the cumulative popularity of each application. Importantly,
although various combinations of the two mechanisms yield long-time behaviour
that is consistent with data, the only models that reproduce the observed
temporal dynamics are those that strongly emphasize the recent popularity of
applications over their cumulative popularity. This demonstrates---even when
using purely observational data without experimental design---that temporal
data-driven modelling can effectively distinguish between competing microscopic
mechanisms, allowing us to uncover new aspects of collective online behaviour.
