  The context of nonlinear combat calls for more sophisticated measures of
effectiveness. We present a set of tools that can be used as such supplemental
indicators, based on stochastic nonlinear multivariate modeling used to
benchmark Janus simulation to exercise data from the U.S. Army National
Training Center (NTC). As a prototype study, a strong global optimization tool,
adaptive simulated annealing (ASA), is used to explicitly fit Janus data,
deriving coefficients of relative measures of effectiveness, and developing a
sound intuitive graphical decision aid, canonical momentum indicators (CMI),
faithful to the sophisticated algebraic model. We argue that these tools will
become increasingly important to aid simulation studies of the importance of
maneuver in combat in the 21st century.
