  This work presents numerical simulations of meteoroid streams released by
comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner over the period 1850-2030. The initial methodology,
based on Vaubaillon et al. (2005), has been updated and modified to account for
the evolution of the comet's dust production along its orbit. The peak time,
intensity, and duration of the shower were assessed using simulated activity
profiles that are calibrated to match observations of historic Draconid
outbursts. The characteristics of all the main apparitions of the shower are
reproduced, with a peak time accuracy of half an hour and an intensity estimate
correct to within a factor of 2 (visual showers) or 3 (radio outbursts). Our
model also revealed the existence of a previously unreported strong radio
outburst on October 9 1999, that has since been confirmed by archival radar
measurements. The first results of the model, presented in Egal et al. (2018),
provided one of the best predictions of the recent 2018 outburst. Three future
radio outbursts are predicted in the next decade, in 2019, 2025 and 2029. The
strongest activity is expected in 2025 when the Earth encounters the young 2012
trail. Because of the dynamical uncertainties associated with comet 21P's
orbital evolution between the 1959 and 1965 apparitions, observations of the
2019 radio outburst would be particularly helpful to improve the confidence of
subsequent forecasts.
