  The United Nations Broadband Commission has committed the international
community to accelerate universal broadband. However, the cost of meeting this
objective, and the feasibility of doing so on a commercially viable basis, are
not well understood. Using scenario analysis, this paper compares the global
cost-effectiveness of different infrastructure strategies for the developing
world to achieve universal 4G or 5G mobile broadband. Utilizing remote sensing
and demand forecasting, least-cost network designs are developed for eight
representative low and middle-income countries (Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Senegal,
Pakistan, Albania, Peru and Mexico), the results from which form the basis for
aggregation to the global level. The cost of meeting a minimum 10 Mbps per user
is estimated at USD 1.7 trillion using 5G Non-Standalone, approximately 0.6% of
annual GDP for the developing world over the next decade. However, by creating
a favorable regulatory environment, governments can bring down these costs by
as much as three quarters, to USD 0.5 trillion (approximately 0.2% of annual
GDP), and avoid the need for public subsidy. Providing governments make
judicious choices, adopting fiscal and regulatory regimes conducive to lowering
costs, universal broadband may be within reach of most developing countries
over the next decade.
