  All three components of the current density are required to compute the
heating rate due to free magnetic energy dissipation. Here we present a first
test of a new model developed to determine if the times of increases in the
resistive heating rate in active region (AR) photospheres are correlated with
the subsequent occurrence of M and X flares in the corona. A data driven, 3 D,
non-force-free magnetohydrodynamic model restricted to the near-photospheric
region is used to compute time series of the complete current density and the
resistive heating rate per unit volume $(Q(t))$ in each pixel in neutral line
regions (NLRs) of 14 ARs. The model is driven by time series of the magnetic
field ${\bf B}$ measured by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager on the Solar
Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO
orbital motion are filtered out of the time series for ${\bf B}$ in every AR
pixel. For each AR, the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the values of
the NLR area integral $Q_i(t)$ of $Q(t)$ is found to be a scale invariant power
law distribution essentially identical to the observed CDF for the total energy
released in coronal flares. This suggests that coronal flares and the
photospheric $Q_i$ are correlated, and powered by the same process. The model
predicts spikes in $Q_i$ with values orders of magnitude above background
values. These spikes are driven by spikes in the non-force free component of
the current density. The times of these spikes are plausibly correlated with
times of subsequent M or X flares a few hours to a few days later. The spikes
occur on granulation scales, and may be signatures of heating in horizontal
current sheets. It is also found that the times of relatively large values of
the rate of change of the NLR unsigned magnetic flux are also plausibly
correlated with the times of subsequent M and X flares, and spikes in $Q_i$.
