  The fast-paced development of state-of-the-art limited area models and faster
computational resources have made it possible to create simulations at
increasing horizontal resolution. This has led to a ubiquitous demand for even
higher resolutions from users of various disciplines. This study revisits one
of the simulations used in marine ecosystem projects at the Bjerknes Centre. We
present a fresh perspective on the assessment of these data, related more
specifically to: a) the value added by increased horizontal resolution; and b)
a new method for comparing sensitivity studies. The assessment is made using a
Bayesian framework for the distribution of mean surface temperature in the
Hardanger fjord region in Norway. Population estimates are calculated based on
samples from the joint posterior distribution generated using a Monte Carlo
procedure. The Bayesian statistical model is applied to output data from the
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at three horizontal resolutions
(9, 3 and 1 km) and the ERA Interim Reanalysis. The period considered in this
study is from 2007 to 2009, for the months of April, May and June.
