  Using the recently proposed formalism for Lambda<0 quantum gravity in 2+1
dimensions we study the process of black hole production in a collision of two
point particles. The creation probability for a BH with a simplest topology
inside the horizon is given by the Liouville theory 4-point function projected
on an intermediate state. We analyze in detail the semi-classical limit of
small AdS curvatures, in which the probability is dominated by the exponential
of the classical Liouville action. The probability is found to be exponentially
small. We then argue that the total probability of creating a horizon given by
the sum of probabilities of all possible internal topologies is of order unity,
so that there is no exponential suppression of the total production rate.
