  Demands on the disaster response capacity of the European Union are likely to
increase, as the impacts of disasters continue to grow both in size and
frequency. This has resulted in intensive research on issues concerning
spatially-explicit information and modelling and their multiple sources of
uncertainty. Geospatial support is one of the forms of assistance frequently
required by emergency response centres along with hazard forecast and event
management assessment. Robust modelling of natural hazards requires dynamic
simulations under an array of multiple inputs from different sources.
Uncertainty is associated with meteorological forecast and calibration of the
model parameters. Software uncertainty also derives from the data
transformation models (D-TM) needed for predicting hazard behaviour and its
consequences. On the other hand, social contributions have recently been
recognized as valuable in raw-data collection and mapping efforts traditionally
dominated by professional organizations. Here an architecture overview is
proposed for adaptive and robust modelling of natural hazards, following the
Semantic Array Programming paradigm to also include the distributed array of
social contributors called Citizen Sensor in a semantically-enhanced strategy
for D-TM modelling. The modelling architecture proposes a multicriteria
approach for assessing the array of potential impacts with qualitative rapid
assessment methods based on a Partial Open Loop Feedback Control (POLFC) schema
and complementing more traditional and accurate a-posteriori assessment. We
discuss the computational aspect of environmental risk modelling using
array-based parallel paradigms on High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms,
in order for the implications of urgency to be introduced into the systems
(Urgent-HPC).
