  It is very vital for suppliers and distributors to predict the deregulated
electricity prices for creating their bidding strategies in the competitive
market area. Pre requirement of succeeding in this field, accurate and suitable
electricity tariff price forecasting tools are needed. In the presence of
effective forecasting tools, taking the decisions of production, merchandising,
maintenance and investment with the aim of maximizing the profits and benefits
can be successively and effectively done. According to the electricity demand,
there are four various electricity tariffs pricing in Turkey; monochromic, day,
peak and night. The objective is find the best suitable tool for predicting the
four pricing periods of electricity and produce short term forecasts (one year
ahead-monthly). Our approach based on finding the best model, which ensures the
smallest forecasting error measurements of: MAPE, MAD and MSD. We conduct a
comparison of various forecasting approaches in total accounts for nine teen,
at least all of those have different aspects of methodology. Our beginning step
was doing forecasts for the year 2015. We validated and analyzed the
performance of our best model and made comparisons to see how well the
historical values of 2015 and forecasted data for that specific period matched.
Results show that given the time-series data, the recommended models provided
good forecasts. Second part of practice, we also include the year 2015, and
compute all the models with the time series of January 2011 to December 2015.
Again by choosing the best appropriate forecasting model, we conducted the
forecast process and also analyze the impact of enhancing of time series
periods (January 2007 to December 2015) to model that we used for forecasting
process.
