  The global financial crisis, beginning in 2008, took an historic toll on
national economies around the world. Following equity market crashes,
unemployment rates rose significantly in many countries: Italy was among those.
What will be the impact of such large shocks on Italian healthcare finances? An
empirical model for estimating the impact of the crisis on Italian public
healthcare expenditure is presented. Based on data from epidemiological studies
related to past economic crisis, the financial impact is estimated to be
comparable to the healthcare deficit of Italian Regions (EUR 3-5 bn). According
to current agreements between the Italian State and its Regions, public funding
of regional National Health Services (NHSs) is limited to the amount of
regional deficit and is subject to previous assessment of strict adherence to
constraint on regional healthcare balance-sheet. Those Regions that will fail
to comply to balance-sheet constraints will suffer cuts on their public NHS
financing with foreseeable bad consequences for the health of their regional
population. The current crisis could be a good timing for a large-scale
re-engineering of the Italian NHS, probably the only way for
self-sustainability of the public system.
