  The work applies the funnel plot methodology to measure and visualize
uncertainty in the research performance of Italian universities in the science
disciplines. The performance assessment is carried out at both discipline and
overall university level. The findings reveal that for most universities the
citation-based indicator used gives insufficient statistical evidence to infer
that their research productivity is inferior or superior to the average. This
general observation is one that we could indeed expect in a higher education
system that is essentially non-competitive. The question is whether the
introduction of uncertainty in performance reporting, while technically sound,
could weaken institutional motivation to work towards continuous improvement.
