  We present detailed maps of the microlensing optical depth and event density
over an area of 195 sq. deg towards the Galactic bulge. The maps are computed
from synthetic stellar catalogues generated from the Besancon Galaxy Model,
which comprises four stellar populations and a three-dimensional extinction map
calibrated against the Two-Micron All-Sky Survey. The optical depth maps have a
resolution of 15 arcminutes, corresponding to the angular resolution of the
extinction map. We compute optical depth and event density maps for all
resolved sources above I=19, for unresolved (difference image) sources
magnified above this limit, and for bright standard candle sources in the
bulge. We show that the resulting optical depth contours are dominated by
extinction effects, exhibiting fine structure in stark contrast to previous
theoretical optical depth maps. Optical depth comparisons between Galactic
models and optical microlensing survey measurements cannot safely ignore
extinction or assume it to be smooth. We show how the event distribution for
hypothetical J and K-band microlensing surveys, using existing ground-based
facilities such as VISTA, UKIRT or CFHT, would be much less affected by
extinction, especially in the K band. The near infrared provides a substantial
sensitivity increase over current I-band surveys and a more faithful tracer of
the underlying stellar distribution, something which upcoming variability
surveys such as VVV will be able to exploit. Synthetic population models offer
a promising way forward to fully exploit large microlensing datasets for
Galactic structure studies.
