  The bright blazar OJ~287 routinely parades high brightness bremsstrahlung
flares, which are explained as being a result of a secondary supermassive black
hole (SMBH) impacting the accretion disc of a more massive primary SMBH in a
binary system. The accretion disc is not rigid but rather bends in a calculable
way due to the tidal influence of the secondary. Below we refer to this
phenomenon as a variable disc level. We begin by showing that these flares
occur at times predicted by a simple analytical formula, based on general
relativity inspired modified Kepler equation, which explains impact flares
since 1888.
  The 2022 impact flare, namely flare number 26, is rather peculiar as it
breaks the typical pattern of two impact flares per 12-year cycle. This is the
third bremsstrahlung flare of the current cycle that follows the already
observed 2015 and 2019 impact flares from OJ~287.
  It turns out that the arrival epoch of flare number 26 is sensitive to the
level of primary SMBH's accretion disc relative to its mean level in our model.
We incorporate these tidally induced changes in the level of the accretion disc
to infer that the thermal flare should have occurred during July-August 2022,
when it was not possible to observe it from the Earth. Thereafter, we explore
possible observational evidence for certain pre-flare activity by employing
spectral and polarimetric data from our campaigns in 2004/05 and 2021/22. We
point out theoretical and observational implications of two observed
mini-flares during January-February 2022.
