  In this paper, we assess and develop a climate service focused on the
production of seasonal predictions for summer wildfires in a Mediterranean
region through a participatory approach with end-users. We start by building a
data-driven model that links a drought indicator (Standardised Precipitation
Evapotranspiration Index; SPEI) with a series of burned areas in Catalonia
(northeastern Spain). Afterwards, we feed this model with SPEI forecasts
obtained through a combination of the antecedent observed conditions and
climatology. Finally, we assess the forecasting skill of the system by using
cross-validation to evaluate the predictions as if they had been made
operationally. Our fire forecasting system reveals an untapped and useful
burned area predictive ability. We argue that this source of predictability is
mostly attributable to the effect of observed initial conditions on summer
drought conditions. This system was conceived with the stakeholders, merging
climate-driven predictions with information that is of interests to the users,
including the identification of climate variables, thresholds and models. The
co-production of this customized system allows fire-risk outlooks to be
translated into usable information for fire management. This fire forecasting
ability plays a crucial role in developing proactive fire management practices
such as long-term fuel assessment and other fire-risk planning, thus minimising
the impact of adverse climate conditions on summer burned area.
