  In the first runtime analysis of an estimation-of-distribution algorithm
(EDA) on the multi-modal jump function class, Hasen\"ohrl and Sutton (GECCO
2018) proved that the runtime of the compact genetic algorithm with suitable
parameter choice on jump functions with high probability is at most polynomial
(in the dimension) if the jump size is at most logarithmic (in the dimension),
and is at most exponential in the jump size if the jump size is
super-logarithmic. The exponential runtime guarantee was achieved with a
hypothetical population size that is also exponential in the jump size.
Consequently, this setting cannot lead to a better runtime.
  In this work, we show that any choice of the hypothetical population size
leads to a runtime that, with high probability, is at least exponential in the
jump size. This result might be the first non-trivial exponential lower bound
for EDAs that holds for arbitrary parameter settings.
