  We explore the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lebanon
by adopting two different approaches: the STEIR model, which is a modified SEIR
model accounting for the effect of travel, and a repeated iterations model. We
fit available daily data since the first diagnosed case until the end of June
2020 and we forecast possible scenarios of contagion associated with different
levels of social distancing measures and travel inflows. We determine the
initial reproductive transmission rate in Lebanon and all subsequent dynamics.
In the repeated iterations (RI) model we iterate the available data of
currently infected people to forecast future infections under several possible
scenarios of contagion. In both models, our results suggest that tougher
mitigation measures would slow down the spread of the disease. On the other
hand, the current relaxation of measures and partial resumption of
international flights, as the STEIR reveals, would trigger a second outbreak of
infections, with severity depending on the extent of relaxation. We recommend
strong institutional and public commitment to mitigation measures to avoid
uncontrolled spread.
