  When users interact with the Web today, they leave sequential digital trails
on a massive scale. Examples of such human trails include Web navigation,
sequences of online restaurant reviews, or online music play lists.
Understanding the factors that drive the production of these trails can be
useful for e.g., improving underlying network structures, predicting user
clicks or enhancing recommendations. In this work, we present a general
approach called HypTrails for comparing a set of hypotheses about human trails
on the Web, where hypotheses represent beliefs about transitions between
states. Our approach utilizes Markov chain models with Bayesian inference. The
main idea is to incorporate hypotheses as informative Dirichlet priors and to
leverage the sensitivity of Bayes factors on the prior for comparing hypotheses
with each other. For eliciting Dirichlet priors from hypotheses, we present an
adaption of the so-called (trial) roulette method. We demonstrate the general
mechanics and applicability of HypTrails by performing experiments with (i)
synthetic trails for which we control the mechanisms that have produced them
and (ii) empirical trails stemming from different domains including website
navigation, business reviews and online music played. Our work expands the
repertoire of methods available for studying human trails on the Web.
