  This work aims to understand how effective the typical admissions criteria
used in physics are at identifying students who will complete the PhD. Through
a multivariate statistical analysis of a sample that includes roughly one in
eight students who entered physics PhD programs from 2000-2010, we find that
the traditional admissions metrics of undergraduate GPA and the Graduate
Records Examination (GRE) Quantitative, Verbal, and Physics Subject Tests do
not predict completion in US physics graduate programs with the efficacy often
assumed by admissions committees. We find only undergraduate GPA to have a
statistically significant association with physics PhD completion across all
models studied. In no model did GRE Physics or GRE Verbal predict PhD
completion. GRE Quantitative scores had statistically significant relationships
with PhD completion in two of four models studied. However, in practice,
probability of completing the PhD changed by less than 10 percentage points for
students scoring in the 10 ^th vs 90 ^th percentile of US test takers that were
physics majors. Noting the significant race, gender, and citizenship gaps in
GRE scores, these findings indicate that the heavy reliance on these test
scores within typical PhD admissions process is a deterrent to increasing
access, diversity, and equity in physics. Misuse of GRE scores selects against
already-underrepresented groups and US citizens with tools that fail to
meaningfully predict PhD completion. This is a draft; see the journal for the
published version.
  Additionally included in blue text are several responses to queries about
this work.
