  To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges after the first
Global Stocktake, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developing
emission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledges
with unconditional targets lead to global warming of 1.96 (1.39-2.6) degree C
by 2100. Further warming could be limited through i) commitment to mid-century
net-zero targets for all countries and earlier net-zero targets for developed
countries, ii) enhancement of the Global Methane Pledge, and iii) ambitious
implementation of the Glasgow Leaders Declaration on Forests and Land Use. Our
analysis further shows that overshooting 1.5 degree C is unavoidable, even with
supplementary climate engineering strategies, suggesting the need for
strategies to limit further overshoot and ultimately reduce the warming towards
1.5 degree C.
