  The recent increase in global temperature is attributed to anthropological
global warming, (A.G.W), with a minor role for natural trends in temperature.
The I.P.P.C estimates natural temperature (NAT) from climate models and
attributes the difference from recent recorded temperature to A.G.W. We use the
temperature record to assess if trends in temperature are due to NAT or A.G.W
effects. The method requires long records like the 362-year Central England
temperature (C.E.T) record. The C.E.T was divided into a 262 year-long early
part when only NAT was significant, and a 100 year-long later part. The early
part was decomposed into eight components in the spectral range 15 to 257 years
and the components were forward projected to the next 100 years. The projected
NAT replicated the recorded cooling from 1950 to 1980 and the rapid increase
from 1980 to 2010, indicating that the recent strong 50-year trend in C.E.T was
primarily NAT. Based on the small difference between the projected NAT and the
recorded C.E.T a minor role was attributed to A.G.W and a climate sensitivity
to CO2 doubling of 0.7 +/- 0.2 K estimated. Components, at 514 and 1028 years,
were derived from the C.E.T record providing a means for validation of long
projections against proxy records of past temperature. Future projection of
combined NAT and A.G.W indicated a cooling of C.E.T by 0.5 C from now to year
2060 before A.G.W becomes dominant. The possible cause of an imminent decrease
in C.E.T was explored by applying the same method of component estimation to
temperature data from Melbourne, Australia (MET) and the geomagnetic a.a index,
a proxy for the solar wind. Comparing cyclic variations of the a.a index and
the C.E.T and MET data indicated a complex relationship with the strong recent
increase in C.E.T and MET lagging the increase in the solar wind by ~15 years.
