  We analyze 27 house price indexes of Las Vegas from Jun. 1983 to Mar. 2005,
corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence
of a real-estate bubble, defined as a price acceleration faster than
exponential, which is found however to be confined to a rather limited time
interval in the recent past from approximately 2003 to mid-2004 and has
progressively transformed into a more normal growth rate comparable to
pre-bubble levels in 2005. There has been no bubble till 2002 except for a
medium-sized surge in 1990. In addition, we have identified a strong yearly
periodicity which provides a good potential for fine-tuned prediction from
month to month. A monthly monitoring using a model that we have developed could
confirm, by testing the intra-year structure, if indeed the market has returned
to ``normal'' or if more turbulence is expected ahead. We predict the evolution
of the indexes one year ahead, which is validated with new data up to Sep.
2006. The present analysis demonstrates the existence of very significant
variations at the local scale, in the sense that the bubble in Las Vegas seems
to have preceded the more global USA bubble and has ended approximately two
years earlier (mid 2004 for Las Vegas compared with mid-2006 for the whole of
the USA).
