  Studies on the genetics of adaptation typically neglect the possibility that
a deleterious mutation might fix. Nonetheless, here we show that, in many
regimes, the first substitution is most often deleterious, even when fitness is
expected to increase in the long term. In particular, we prove that this
phenomenon occurs under weak mutation for any house-of-cards model with an
equilibrium distribution. We find that the same qualitative results hold under
Fisher's geometric model. We also provide a simple intuition for the surprising
prevalence of unconditionally deleterious substitutions during early
adaptation. Importantly, the phenomenon we describe occurs on fitness
landscapes without any local maxima and is therefore distinct from
"valley-crossing". Our results imply that the common practice of ignoring
deleterious substitutions leads to qualitatively incorrect predictions in many
regimes. Our results also have implications for the substitution process at
equilibrium and for the response to a sudden decrease in population size.
