  How likely is it that Magnus Carlsen will achieve an Elo rating of $2900$?
This has been a goal of Magnus and is of great current interest to the chess
community. Our paper uses probabilistic methods to address this question. The
probabilistic properties of Elo's rating system have long been studied, and we
provide an application of such methods. By applying a Brownian motion model of
Stern as a simple tool we provide answers. Our research also has fundamental
bearing on the choice of the $K$-factor used in Elo's system for GrandMaster
(GM) chess play. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of policy issues
involved with the choice of $K$-factor.
