  Ex ante returns, the net value that agents perceive before they take an
investment decision, are understood as the main drivers of individual
decisions. Hence, their distribution in a population is an important tool for
counterfactual analysis and policy evaluation. This paper studies the
identification of the population distribution of ex ante returns using stated
choice experiments, in the context of binary investment decisions. The
environment is characterised by uncertainty about future outcomes, with some
uncertainty being resolved over time. In this context, each individual holds a
probability distribution over different levels of returns. The paper provides
novel, nonparametric identification results for the population distribution of
returns, accounting for uncertainty. It complements these with a
nonparametric/semiparametric estimation methodology, which is new to the
stated-preference literature. Finally, it uses these results to study the
preference of high ability students in Cote d'Ivoire for public-sector jobs and
how the competition for talent affects the expansion of the private sector.
