  The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the 2019-nCoV
epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of
the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human transmission has driven
the rapid spread of the virus throughout China. The ongoing outbreak presents a
challenge for modelers, as limited data are available on the early growth
trajectory, and the epidemiological characteristics of the novel coronavirus
are yet to be fully elucidated. We provide timely short-term forecasts of the
cumulative number of confirmed reported cases in Hubei province, the epicenter
of the epidemic, and for the overall trajectory in China, excluding the
province of Hubei. We collect daily reported cumulative case data for the
2019-nCoV outbreak for each Chinese province from the National Health
Commission of China. Here, we provide 5, 10, and 15 day forecasts for five
consecutive days, February 5th through February 9th, with quantified
uncertainty based on a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth
model, and a sub-epidemic wave model. Our most recent forecasts reported here
based on data up until February 9, 2020, largely agree across the three models
presented and suggest an average range of 7,409-7,496 additional cases in Hubei
and 1,128-1,929 additional cases in other provinces within the next five days.
Models also predict an average total cumulative case count between 37,415 -
38,028 in Hubei and 11,588 - 13,499 in other provinces by February 24, 2020.
Mean estimates and uncertainty bounds for both Hubei and other provinces have
remained relatively stable in the last three reporting dates (February 7th -
9th). Our forecasts suggest that the containment strategies implemented in
China are successfully reducing transmission and that the epidemic growth has
slowed in recent days.
