  This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the
coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost
following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological
parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the
propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of
reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence
models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an
effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model,
defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may
have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as
well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic
interventions.
