  We propose SPARFA-Trace, a new machine learning-based framework for
time-varying learning and content analytics for education applications. We
develop a novel message passing-based, blind, approximate Kalman filter for
sparse factor analysis (SPARFA), that jointly (i) traces learner concept
knowledge over time, (ii) analyzes learner concept knowledge state transitions
(induced by interacting with learning resources, such as textbook sections,
lecture videos, etc, or the forgetting effect), and (iii) estimates the content
organization and intrinsic difficulty of the assessment questions. These
quantities are estimated solely from binary-valued (correct/incorrect) graded
learner response data and a summary of the specific actions each learner
performs (e.g., answering a question or studying a learning resource) at each
time instance. Experimental results on two online course datasets demonstrate
that SPARFA-Trace is capable of tracing each learner's concept knowledge
evolution over time, as well as analyzing the quality and content organization
of learning resources, the question-concept associations, and the question
intrinsic difficulties. Moreover, we show that SPARFA-Trace achieves comparable
or better performance in predicting unobserved learner responses than existing
collaborative filtering and knowledge tracing approaches for personalized
education.
