  The SLEUTH model, based on the Cellular Automata (CA), can be applied to city
development simulation in metropolitan areas. In this study the SLEUTH model
was used to model the urban expansion and predict the future possible behavior
of the urban growth in Tehran. The fundamental data were five Landsat TM and
ETM images of 1988, 1992, 1998, 2001 and 2010. Three scenarios were designed to
simulate the spatial pattern. The first scenario assumed historical
urbanization mode would persist and the only limitations for development were
height and slope. The second one was a compact scenario which makes the growth
mostly internal and limited the expansion of suburban areas. The last scenario
proposed a polycentric urban structure which let the little patches grow
without any limitation and would not consider the areas beyond the specific
buffer zone from the larger patches for development. Results showed that the
urban growth rate was greater in the first scenario in comparison with the
other two scenarios. Also it was shown that the third scenario was more
suitable for Tehran since it could avoid undesirable effects such as congestion
and pollution and was more in accordance with the conditions of Tehran city.
