  As the 21st century progresses, photovoltaic technology is becoming a major
provider of the worlds electricity, while effects of global climate change
unfold. This development begs the question: is climate change affecting the
energy production of solar cells? In this article, we attempt to answer this
question looking backward and forward. We start by analyzing recent trends for
global meteorological conditions and solar cell performance parameters,
covering the ten-year period between 20016 and 2015. We leverage a
field-verified performance model for two of the most well-established solar
cell technologies that also feature very different sensitivities to changing
operating conditions: silicon and cadmium telluride. We find that climate
change has already left its mark: ten years ago, silicon solar panels -- on
average -- generated 4 kWh per m2 more power than today. Correlating solar cell
performance ratio changes and changes in operating conditions, we find that
temperature globally is the leading factor for silicon (-0.52 pm 0.03% per K),
accounting for approx. 85% of the observed effect. Water related light
absorption in the atmosphere is most likely responsible for much of the
remaining contribution. To predict how future solar cell performance is
affected, we focus on the implications of raising temperatures. For the end of
the 21st century, we project that silicon PV panels globally will suffer
performance reductions of between 0.7% and 2.5% (8 to 30 kWh per kWp in North
America), depending on the global warming scenario. These reductions will
result in significant socioeconomic penalties, particularly in a world that
produces a significant portion of its electricity from PV panels, and
especially if additional effects of global warming, like accelerated panel
degradation and extreme weather are considered.
