  It is essential to find solar predictive methods to massively insert
renewable energies on the electrical distribution grid. The goal of this study
is to find the best methodology allowing predicting with high accuracy the
hourly global radiation. The knowledge of this quantity is essential for the
grid manager or the private PV producer in order to anticipate fluctuations
related to clouds occurrences and to stabilize the injected PV power. In this
paper, we test both methodologies: single and hybrid predictors. In the first
class, we include the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), auto-regressive and moving
average (ARMA), and persistence models. In the second class, we mix these
predictors with Bayesian rules to obtain ad-hoc models selections, and Bayesian
averages of outputs related to single models. If MLP and ARMA are equivalent
(nRMSE close to 40.5% for the both), this hybridization allows a nRMSE gain
upper than 14 percentage points compared to the persistence estimation
(nRMSE=37% versus 51%).
