  This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the
demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference
atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period
from the present to 2050, for a comprehensive range of future global fossil
fuel energy use scenarios. The results show that even for a business-as-usual
(the mid-level IPCC) fossil fuel use estimate, global surface temperature will
rise at a slower rate than for the recent period 1960-2000. Concerning peak
fossil fuel, for the most common scenario the currently observed
(1998-2013)temperature plateau will turn into a decrease. The observed trend to
date for temperature is compared with that for global climate disasters: these
peaked in 2005 and are notably decreasing. The temperature and disaster results
taken together are consistent with either a reduced business-as-usual fossil
fuel use scenario into the future, or a peak fossil fuel scenario, but not with
the standard business-as-usual scenario. If the future follows a peak fossil
fuel pathway, a markedly decreasing trend in global surface temperature should
become apparent over the next few years. If entertained, these results are
evidence that the climate problem may require less preventative action. If so,
the same evidence is support for the case that the peak fossil fuel problem
does require preventative action. This action is the same as it would have been
for climate - the rapid transition to a predominantly renewable global energy
system.
