  Simultaneous ascending auctions present agents with the exposure problem:
bidding to acquire a bundle risks the possibility of obtaining an undesired
subset of the goods. Auction theory provides little guidance for dealing with
this problem. We present a new family of decisiontheoretic bidding strategies
that use probabilistic predictions of final prices. We focus on selfconfirming
price distribution predictions, which by definition turn out to be correct when
all agents bid decision-theoretically based on them. Bidding based on these is
provably not optimal in general, but our experimental evidence indicates the
strategy can be quite effective compared to other known methods.
