  In January 1999, the authors published a quantitative prediction that the
Nikkei index should recover from its 14 year low in January 1999 and reach
$\approx 20500$ a year later. The purpose of the present paper is to evaluate
the performance of this specific prediction as well as the underlying model:
the forecast, performed at a time when the Nikkei was at its lowest (as we can
now judge in hindsight), has correctly captured the change of trend as well as
the quantitative evolution of the Nikkei index since its inception. As the
change of trend from sluggish to recovery was estimated quite unlikely by many
observers at that time, a Bayesian analysis shows that a skeptical (resp.
neutral) Bayesian sees her prior belief in our model amplified into a posterior
belief 19 times larger (resp. reach the 95% level).
