  Global marketing managers are interested in understanding the speed of the
new product diffusion process and how the speed has changed in our ever more
technologically advanced and global marketplace. Understanding the process
allows firms to forecast the expected rate of return on their new products and
develop effective marketing strategies. The most recent major study on this
topic [Marketing Science 21 (2002) 97--114] investigated new product diffusions
in the United States. We expand upon that study in three important ways. (1)
Van den Bulte notes that a similar study is needed in the international
context, especially in developing countries. Our study covers four new product
diffusions across 31 developed and developing nations from 1980--2004. Our
sample accounts for about 80% of the global economic output and 60% of the
global population, allowing us to examine more general phenomena. (2) His model
contains the implicit assumption that the diffusion speed parameter is constant
throughout the diffusion life cycle of a product. Recognizing the likely
effects on the speed parameter of recent changes in the marketplace, we model
the parameter as a semiparametric function, allowing it the flexibility to
change over time. (3) We perform a variable selection to determine that the
number of internet users and the consumer price index are strongly associated
with the speed of diffusion.
