  Setbacks are an integral part of a scientific career, yet little is known
about whether an early-career setback may augment or hamper an individual's
future career impact. Here we examine junior scientists applying for U.S.
National Institutes of Health (NIH) R01 grants. By focusing on grant proposals
that fell just below and just above the funding threshold, we compare
"near-miss" with "near-win" individuals to examine longer-term career outcomes.
Our analyses reveal that an early-career near miss has powerful, opposing
effects. On one hand, it significantly increases attrition, with one near miss
predicting more than a 10% chance of disappearing permanently from the NIH
system. Yet, despite an early setback, individuals with near misses
systematically outperformed those with near wins in the longer run, as their
publications in the next ten years garnered substantially higher impact. We
further find that this performance advantage seems to go beyond a screening
mechanism, whereby a more selected fraction of near-miss applicants remained
than the near winners, suggesting that early-career setback appears to cause a
performance improvement among those who persevere. Overall, the findings are
consistent with the concept that "what doesn't kill me makes me stronger."
Whereas science is often viewed as a setting where early success begets future
success, our findings unveil an intimate yet previously unknown relationship
where early-career setback can become a marker for future achievement, which
may have broad implications for identifying, training and nurturing junior
scientists whose career will have lasting impact.
