  We predict the survival time of initially bound star clusters in the solar
neighbourhood taking into account: (1) stellar evolution, (2) tidal stripping,
(3) shocking by spiral arms and (4) encounters with giant molecular clouds. We
find that the predicted dissolution time is t_dis= 1.7 (M_i/10^4 M_sun)^0.67
Gyr for clusters in the mass range of 10^2 < M_i < 10^5 M_sun, where
  M_i is the initial mass of the cluster.. The resulting predicted shape of the
logarithmic age distribution agrees very well with the empirical one, derived
from a complete sample of clusters in the solar neighbourhood within 600 pc.
The required scaling factor implies a star formation rate of 400 M_sun/Myr
within 600 pc from the Sun or a surface formation rate of 3.5 10^-10 M_sun/(yr
pc^2) for stars in bound clusters with an initial mass in the range of 10^2 to
3 10^4 M_sun.
