  This article presents evidence based on a panel of 35 countries over the past
30 years that the Phillips curve relation holds for food inflation. That is,
broader economic overheating does push up the food component of the CPI in a
systematic way. Further, general inflation expectations from professional
forecasters clearly impact food price inflation. The analysis also quantifies
the extent to which higher food production and imports, or lower food exports,
reduce food inflation. Importantly, the link between domestic and global food
prices is typically weak, with passthroughs within a year ranging from 0.07 to
0.16, after exchange rate variations are taken into account.
