  The voter model has been studied extensively as a paradigmatic opinion
dynamics' model. However, its ability for modeling real opinion dynamics has
not been addressed. We introduce a noisy voter model (accounting for social
influence) with agents' recurrent mobility (as a proxy for social context),
where the spatial and population diversity are taken as inputs to the model. We
show that the dynamics can be described as a noisy diffusive process that
contains the proper anysotropic coupling topology given by population and
mobility heterogeneity. The model captures statistical features of the US
presidential elections as the stationary vote-share fluctuations across
counties, and the long-range spatial correlations that decay logarithmically
with the distance. Furthermore, it recovers the behavior of these properties
when a real-space renormalization is performed by coarse-graining the
geographical scale from county level through congressional districts and up to
states. Finally, we analyze the role of the mobility range and the randomness
in decision making which are consistent with the empirical observations.
