  Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are known to occur following solar
flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However some high-energy solar events
do not result in SEPs being detected at Earth, and it is these types of event
which may be termed "false alarms".
  We define two simple SEP forecasting algorithms based upon the occurrence of
a magnetically well-connected CME with a speed in excess of 1500 km/s ("a fast
CME") or a well-connected X-class flare and analyse them with respect to
historical data sets. We compare the parameters of those solar events which
produced an enhancement of >40 MeV protons at Earth ("an SEP event") and the
false alarms. We find that an SEP forecasting algorithm based solely upon the
occurrence of a well-connected fast CME produces fewer false alarms (28.8%)
than one based solely upon a well-connected X-class flare (50.6%). Both
algorithms fail to forecast a relatively high percentage of SEP events (53.2%
and 50.6% respectively). Our analysis of the historical data sets shows that
false alarm X-class flares were either not associated with any CME, or were
associated with a CME slower than 500 km/s; false alarm fast CMEs tended to be
associated with flares of class less than M3.
  A better approach to forecasting would be an algorithm which takes as its
base the occurrence of both CMEs and flares. We define a new forecasting
algorithm which uses a combination of CME and flare parameters and show that
the false alarm ratio is similar to that for the algorithm based upon fast CMEs
(29.6%), but the percentage of SEP events not forecast is reduced to 32.4%.
Lists of the solar events which gave rise to >40 MeV protons and the false
alarms have been derived and are made available to aid further study.
