  An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating
consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR)
software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst
or surface impact and calculates effect severity as well as reach on the global
map. To calculate the consequences of an impact in terms of loss of human life,
new vulnerability models are derived that connect the severity of seven impact
effects (strong winds, overpressure shockwave, thermal radiation, seismic
shaking, ejecta deposition, cratering and tsunamis) with lethality to human
populations. With the new vulnerability models ARMOR estimates casualties of an
impact under consideration of the local population and geography. The presented
algorithms and models are employed in two case studies to estimate total
casualties as well as the damage contribution of each impact effect. The case
studies highlight that aerothermal effects are most harmful except for deep
water impacts, where tsunamis are the dominant hazard. Continental shelves
serve a protective function against the tsunami hazard caused by impactors on
the shelf. Furthermore, the calculation of impact consequences facilitates
asteroid risk estimation to better characterize a given threat and the concept
of risk as well as its applicability to the asteroid impact scenario are
presented.
