  The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a powerful tool in modeling complex
time series and has been exploited in many fields. However, fitting high
dimensional VAR model poses some unique challenges: On one hand, the
dimensionality, caused by modeling a large number of time series and higher
order autoregressive processes, is usually much higher than the time series
length; On the other hand, the temporal dependence structure in the VAR model
gives rise to extra theoretical challenges. In high dimensions, one popular
approach is to assume the transition matrix is sparse and fit the VAR model
using the "least squares" method with a lasso-type penalty. In this manuscript,
we propose an alternative way in estimating the VAR model. The main idea is,
via exploiting the temporal dependence structure, to formulate the estimating
problem into a linear program. There is instant advantage for the proposed
approach over the lasso-type estimators: The estimation equation can be
decomposed into multiple sub-equations and accordingly can be efficiently
solved in a parallel fashion. In addition, our method brings new theoretical
insights into the VAR model analysis. So far the theoretical results developed
in high dimensions (e.g., Song and Bickel (2011) and Kock and Callot (2012))
mainly pose assumptions on the design matrix of the formulated regression
problems. Such conditions are indirect about the transition matrices and not
transparent. In contrast, our results show that the operator norm of the
transition matrices plays an important role in estimation accuracy. We provide
explicit rates of convergence for both estimation and prediction. In addition,
we provide thorough experiments on both synthetic and real-world equity data to
show that there are empirical advantages of our method over the lasso-type
estimators in both parameter estimation and forecasting.
