  This paper presents a nonparametric statistical modeling method for
quantifying uncertainty in stochastic gradient systems with isotropic
diffusion. The central idea is to apply the diffusion maps algorithm to a
training data set to produce a stochastic matrix whose generator is a discrete
approximation to the backward Kolmogorov operator of the underlying dynamics.
The eigenvectors of this stochastic matrix, which we will refer to as the
diffusion coordinates, are discrete approximations to the eigenfunctions of the
Kolmogorov operator and form an orthonormal basis for functions defined on the
data set. Using this basis, we consider the projection of three uncertainty
quantification (UQ) problems (prediction, filtering, and response) into the
diffusion coordinates. In these coordinates, the nonlinear prediction and
response problems reduce to solving systems of infinite-dimensional linear
ordinary differential equations. Similarly, the continuous-time nonlinear
filtering problem reduces to solving a system of infinite-dimensional linear
stochastic differential equations. Solving the UQ problems then reduces to
solving the corresponding truncated linear systems in finitely many diffusion
coordinates. By solving these systems we give a model-free algorithm for UQ on
gradient flow systems with isotropic diffusion. We numerically verify these
algorithms on a 1-dimensional linear gradient flow system where the analytic
solutions of the UQ problems are known. We also apply the algorithm to a
chaotically forced nonlinear gradient flow system which is known to be well
approximated as a stochastically forced gradient flow.
