  We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of
hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together
observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the
averaging length scale, and we derive the optimum value for this parameter
using a jackknife. The main purpose of this model is as a starting point for
developing a statistical model of hurricanes for use in the estimation of the
wind, rainfall and flooding risks. The model also acts as an optimal filtering
tool for estimating mean hurricane tracks.
