  Generalized linear models (GLMs) -- such as logistic regression, Poisson
regression, and robust regression -- provide interpretable models for diverse
data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow
coherent estimates of uncertainty, incorporation of prior information, and
sharing of power across experiments via hierarchical models. In practice,
however, the approximate Bayesian methods necessary for inference have either
failed to scale to large data sets or failed to provide theoretical guarantees
on the quality of inference. We propose a new approach based on constructing
polynomial approximate sufficient statistics for GLMs (PASS-GLM). We
demonstrate that our method admits a simple algorithm as well as trivial
streaming and distributed extensions that do not compound error across
computations. We provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of point (MAP)
estimates, the approximate posterior, and posterior mean and uncertainty
estimates. We validate our approach empirically in the case of logistic
regression using a quadratic approximation and show competitive performance
with stochastic gradient descent, MCMC, and the Laplace approximation in terms
of speed and multiple measures of accuracy -- including on an advertising data
set with 40 million data points and 20,000 covariates.
