  The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of
year-to-year variations of the global climate and can lead to extreme weather
conditions and disasters in various regions around the world. Here, we review
two different approaches for the early forecast of El Ni\~no that we have
developed recently: the climate network-based approach allows forecasting the
onset of an El Ni\~no event about 1 year ahead, while the complexity-based
approach allows additionally to estimate the magnitude of an upcoming El Ni\~no
event in the calendar year before. For 2023, both approaches predict the onset
of an El Ni\~no event, with a combined onset probability of about 89%. The
complexity-based approach predicts a moderate-to-strong El Ni\~no with a
magnitude of $1.49\pm0.37${\deg}C. Since El Ni\~no events temporarily increase
the global temperature, we expect that the coming El Ni\~no will increase the
global temperature by about +0.2{\deg}C, likely making 2024 the hottest year
since the beginning of instrumental observations. It is possible that as a
consequence of this El Ni\~no, the +1.5{\deg}C target (compared to
pre-industrial levels) will be temporarily breached already in 2024.
