  Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using
random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined
scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment
during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty
range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 $(2.5\pm1.1\,$G)
is comparable to that observed at the end of cycle 23 (about $2\,$G). The
empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the
strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that cycle 25 will be of
moderate amplitude, not much higher than that of the current cycle. However,
the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter
of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the
reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is
reached.
