  Aiming at the prediction problem of transport capacity risk caused by the
mismatch between the carrying capacity of rail transit network and passenger
flow demand, this paper proposes an explainable prediction method of rail
transit network transport capacity risk based on linear Gaussian Bayesian
network. This method obtains the training data of the prediction model based on
the simulation model of the rail transit system with a three-layer structure
including rail transit network, train flow and passenger flow. A Bayesian
network structure construction method based on the topology of the rail transit
network is proposed, and the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) method is used
to realize the parameter learning of the Bayesian network. Finally, the
effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by simulation examples.
