  Ultra-reliable low latency communication (URLLC) requires the packet error
rate to be on the order of $10^{-9}$-$10^{-5}$. Determining the appropriate
transmission rate to satisfy this ultra-reliability constraint requires
deriving the statistics of the channel in the ultra-reliable region and then
incorporating these statistics into the rate selection. In this paper, we
propose a framework for determining the rate selection for ultra-reliable
communications based on the extreme value theory (EVT). We first model the
wireless channel at URLLC by estimating the parameters of the generalized
Pareto distribution (GPD) best fitting to the tail distribution of the received
powers, i.e., the power values below a certain threshold. Then, we determine
the maximum transmission rate by incorporating the Pareto distribution into the
rate selection function. Finally, we validate the selected rate by computing
the resulting error probability. Based on the data collected within the engine
compartment of Fiat Linea, we demonstrate the superior performance of the
proposed methodology in determining the maximum transmission rate compared to
the traditional extrapolation-based approaches.
