  With the increasing size and frequency of mass events, the study of crowd
disasters and the simulation of pedestrian flows have become important research
areas. Yet, even successful modeling approaches such as those inspired by
Newtonian force models are still not fully consistent with empirical
observations and are sometimes hard to calibrate. Here, a novel cognitive
science approach is proposed, which is based on behavioral heuristics. We
suggest that, guided by visual information, namely the distance of obstructions
in candidate lines of sight, pedestrians apply two simple cognitive procedures
to adapt their walking speeds and directions. While simpler than previous
approaches, this model predicts individual trajectories and collective patterns
of motion in good quantitative agreement with a large variety of empirical and
experimental data. This includes the emergence of self-organization phenomena,
such as the spontaneous formation of unidirectional lanes or stop-and-go waves.
Moreover, the combination of pedestrian heuristics with body collisions
generates crowd turbulence at extreme densities-a phenomenon that has been
observed during recent crowd disasters. By proposing an integrated treatment of
simultaneous interactions between multiple individuals, our approach overcomes
limitations of current physics-inspired pair interaction models. Understanding
crowd dynamics through cognitive heuristics is therefore not only crucial for a
better preparation of safe mass events. It also clears the way for a more
realistic modeling of collective social behaviors, in particular of human
crowds and biological swarms. Furthermore, our behavioral heuristics may serve
to improve the navigation of autonomous robots.
