  We analyze the implications for the status and prospects of supersymmetry of
the Higgs discovery and the last XENON data. We focus mainly, but not only, on
the CMSSM and NUHM models. Using a Bayesian approach we determine the
distribution of probability in the parameter space of these scenarios. This
shows that, most probably, they are now beyond the LHC reach . This negative
chances increase further (at more than 95% c.l.) if one includes dark matter
constraints in the analysis, in particular the last XENON100 data. However, the
models would be probed completely by XENON1T. The mass of the LSP neutralino
gets essentially fixed around 1 TeV. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of
the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises
automatically from the careful Bayesian analysis itself, and allows to scan the
whole parameter space. In this way, we can explain and resolve the apparent
discrepancies between the previous results in the literature. Although SUSY has
become hard to detect at LHC, this does not necessarily mean that is very
fine-tuned. We use Bayesian techniques to show the experimental Higgs mass is
at $\sim 2\ \sigma$ off the CMSSM or NUHM expectation. This is substantial but
not dramatic. Although the CMSSM or the NUHM are unlikely to show up at the
LHC, they are still interesting and plausible models after the Higgs
observation; and, if they are true, the chances of discovering them in future
dark matter experiments are quite high.
