  We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten
measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is
carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms
acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each
forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble
members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between
observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies,
inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there
are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is
sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate
change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the
1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of
improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested.
Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like
variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the
Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest
uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of
anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.
