  Many researchers work on improving the data efficiency of machine learning.
What would happen if they succeed? This paper explores the social-economic
impact of increased data efficiency. Specifically, we examine the intuition
that data efficiency will erode the barriers to entry protecting incumbent
data-rich AI firms, exposing them to more competition from data-poor firms. We
find that this intuition is only partially correct: data efficiency makes it
easier to create ML applications, but large AI firms may have more to gain from
higher performing AI systems. Further, we find that the effect on privacy, data
markets, robustness, and misuse are complex. For example, while it seems
intuitive that misuse risk would increase along with data efficiency -- as more
actors gain access to any level of capability -- the net effect crucially
depends on how much defensive measures are improved. More investigation into
data efficiency, as well as research into the "AI production function", will be
key to understanding the development of the AI industry and its societal
impacts.
