  Using generalized random forests and rich Swedish administrative data, we
show that the earnings effects of job displacement due to establishment
closures are extremely heterogeneous across and within (observable) worker
types, establishments, and markets. The decile with the largest predicted
effects loses 50 percent of annual earnings the year after displacement and
losses accumulate to 200 percent over 7 years. The least affected decile
experiences only marginal losses of 6 percent in the year after displacement.
Prior to displacement workers in the most affected decile were lower paid and
had negative earnings trajectories. Workers with large predicted effects are
more sensitive to adverse market conditions than other workers. When
restricting attention to simple targeting rules, the subgroup consisting of
older workers in routine-task intensive jobs has the highest predictable
effects of displacement.
