  Human papillomavirus, or HPV, is a sexually transmittable virus infection,
which is necessary risk factor for developing cervical cancer, first most
common type of cancer in working age women in Moldova. We observe both
behavioral change (sexuality increase) and demographical change (population
ageing). We used data since 1998 (Moldovan peace treaty) to adjust model
parameter and we project till around 2030 (for vaccination till 2050).
According to provided information, interdisciplinary model was proposed. It iss
set of deterministic differential equations. Stochasticity was introduced in
sexual partner change rates. The model has aggregated the most important paths
of infection, cancer development and prevention scenarios (more than 100
equations and 200 parameters). Moldovan cervical cancer perspective looks much
better, than in central western Europe countries, because of relatively young
society. In our setup, obligatory vaccination seems to not be so crucial (for
none of realistic scenarios increase of cancer cases is possible) for public
health, as in most countries in European Union. However, screening practice
could be verified in terms of efficiency, when cost benefit calculation would
be done. We propose more optimal screening guidelines (with prevention cost 5
-10k EUR per QALY), which could provide saving perspective in 10-15 year in
range 150-300k EUR yearly. Targeted vaccination could be also consider, because
costs are similar to high frequencies screening schema with the same cancer
cases projection. However, some positive side effects of vaccination as
reduction of pathogen circulation in society, will cause decrease of other
pathologies related to HPV like genital warts and other cancer.
