  We analyse the efficiency of several simulation methods which we have
recently proposed for calculating rate constants for rare events in stochastic
dynamical systems, in or out of equilibrium. We derive analytical expressions
for the computational cost of using these methods, and for the statistical
error in the final estimate of the rate constant, for a given computational
cost. These expressions can be used to determine which method to use for a
given problem, to optimize the choice of parameters, and to evaluate the
significance of the results obtained. We apply the expressions to the
two-dimensional non-equilibrium rare event problem proposed by Maier and Stein.
For this problem, our analysis gives accurate quantitative predictions for the
computational efficiency of the three methods.
