  The expectation monad is introduced abstractly via two composable
adjunctions, but concretely captures measures. It turns out to sit in between
known monads: on the one hand the distribution and ultrafilter monad, and on
the other hand the continuation monad. This expectation monad is used in two
probabilistic analogues of fundamental results of Manes and Gelfand for the
ultrafilter monad: algebras of the expectation monad are convex compact
Hausdorff spaces, and are dually equivalent to so-called Banach effect
algebras. These structures capture states and effects in quantum foundations,
and also the duality between them. Moreover, the approach leads to a new
re-formulation of Gleason's theorem, expressing that effects on a Hilbert space
are free effect modules on projections, obtained via tensoring with the unit
interval.
