  We provide quantitative predictions of first order supply and demand shocks
for the U.S. economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of
individual occupations and industries. To analyze the supply shock, we classify
industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labor Index,
which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand
shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic
developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID
period, these shocks would threaten around 22% of the US economy's GDP,
jeopardise 24% of jobs and reduce total wage income by 17%. At the industry
level, sectors such as transport are likely to have output constrained by
demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining and services are
more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants and
tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show
that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply and
demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We
should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks -- we expect them
to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.
