  Forecasting the loss given default (LGD) for defaulted Commercial Real Estate
(CRE) loans poses a significant challenge due to the extended resolution and
workout time associated with such defaults, particularly in CCAR and CECL
framework where the utilization of post-default information, including
macroeconomic variables (MEVs) such as unemployment (UER) and various rates, is
restricted. The current environment of persistent inflation and resultant
elevated rates further compounds the uncertainty surrounding predictive LGD
models. In this paper, we leverage both internal and public data sources,
including observations from the COVID-19 period, to present a list of evidence
indicating that the growth rates of the Consumer Price, such as Year-over-Year
(YoY) growth and logarithmic growth, are good leading indicators for various
CRE related rates and indices. These include the Federal Funds Effective Rate
and CRE market sales price indices in key locations such as Los Angeles, New
York, and nationwide, encompassing both apartment and office segments.
Furthermore, with CRE LGD data we demonstrate how incorporating CPI at the time
of default can improve the accuracy of predicting CRE workout LGD. This is
particularly helpful in addressing the common issue of early downturn
underestimation encountered in CRE LGD models.
