  In social, economic and cultural situations in which the decisions of
individuals are influenced directly by the decisions of others, there appears
to be an inherently high level of ex ante unpredictability. In cultural markets
such as films, songs and books, well-informed experts routinely make
predictions which turn out to be incorrect.
  We examine the extent to which the existence of social influence may,
somewhat paradoxically, increase the extent to which winners can be identified
at a very early stage in the process. Once the process of choice has begun,
only a very small number of decisions may be necessary to give a reasonable
prospect of being able to identify the eventual winner.
  We illustrate this by an analysis of the music download experiments of
Salganik et.al. (2006). We derive a rule for early identification of the
eventual winner. Although not perfect, it gives considerable practical success.
We validate the rule by applying it to similar data not used in the process of
constructing the rule.
