  We study the quality of secondary school track assignment decisions in the
Netherlands, using a regression discontinuity design. In 6th grade, primary
school teachers assign each student to a secondary school track. If a student
scores above a track-specific cutoff on the standardized end-of-primary
education test, the teacher can upwardly revise this assignment. By comparing
students just left and right of these cutoffs, we find that between 50-90% of
the students are "trapped in track": these students are on the high track after
four years, only if they started on the high track in first year. The remaining
(minority of) students are "always low": they are always on the low track after
four years, independently of where they started. These proportions hold for
students near the cutoffs that shift from the low to the high track in first
year by scoring above the cutoff. Hence, for a majority of these students the
initial (unrevised) track assignment decision is too low. The results replicate
across most of the secondary school tracks, from the vocational to the academic
tracks, and stand out against an education system with a lot of upward and
downward track mobility.
