  We address the question: how common is it for a 3-manifold to fiber over the
circle? One motivation for considering this is to give insight into the fairly
inscrutable Virtual Fibration Conjecture. For the special class of 3-manifolds
with tunnel number one, we provide compelling theoretical and experimental
evidence that fibering is a very rare property. Indeed, in various precise
senses it happens with probability 0. Our main theorem is that this is true for
a measured lamination model of random tunnel number one 3-manifolds.
  The first ingredient is an algorithm of K Brown which can decide if a given
tunnel number one 3-manifold fibers over the circle. Following the lead of
Agol, Hass and W Thurston, we implement Brown's algorithm very efficiently by
working in the context of train tracks/interval exchanges. To analyze the
resulting algorithm, we generalize work of Kerckhoff to understand the dynamics
of splitting sequences of complete genus 2 interval exchanges. Combining all of
this with a "magic splitting sequence" and work of Mirzakhani proves the main
theorem.
  The 3-manifold situation contrasts markedly with random 2-generator 1-relator
groups; in particular, we show that such groups "fiber" with probability
strictly between 0 and 1.
