  In a move described as unprecedented in public health history, starting 24
January 2020, China imposed quarantine and isolation restrictions in Wuhan, a
city of more than 10 million people. This raised the question: is mass
quarantine and isolation effective as a social tool in addition to its
scientific use as a medical tool? In an effort to address this question, using
a epidemiological model driven approach augmented by machine learning, we show
that the quarantine and isolation measures implemented in Wuhan brought down
the effective reproduction number R(t) of the CoVID-19 spread from R(t) > 1 to
R(t) <1 within a month after the imposition of quarantine control measures in
Wuhan, China. This ultimately resulted in a stagnation phase in the infected
case count in Wuhan. Our results indicate that the strict public health
policies implemented in Wuhan may have played a crucial role in halting down
the spread of infection and such measures should potentially be implemented in
other highly affected countries such as South Korea, Italy and Iran to curtail
spread of the disease. Finally, our forecasting results predict a stagnation in
the quarantine control measures implemented in Wuhan towards the end of March
2020; this would lead to a subsequent stagnation in the effective reproduction
number at R(t) <1. We warn that immediate relaxation of the quarantine measures
in Wuhan may lead to a relapse in the infection spread and a subsequent
increase in the effective reproduction number to R(t) >1. Thus, it may be wise
to relax quarantine measures after sufficient time has elapsed, during which
maximum of the quarantined/isolated individuals are recovered.
