  Information spread in social media depends on a number of factors, including
how the site displays information, how users navigate it to find items of
interest, users' tastes, and the `virality' of information, i.e., its
propensity to be adopted, or retweeted, upon exposure. Probabilistic models can
learn users' tastes from the history of their item adoptions and recommend new
items to users. However, current models ignore cognitive biases that are known
to affect behavior. Specifically, people pay more attention to items at the top
of a list than those in lower positions. As a consequence, items near the top
of a user's social media stream have higher visibility, and are more likely to
be seen and adopted, than those appearing below. Another bias is due to the
item's fitness: some items have a high propensity to spread upon exposure
regardless of the interests of adopting users. We propose a probabilistic model
that incorporates human cognitive biases and personal relevance in the
generative model of information spread. We use the model to predict how
messages containing URLs spread on Twitter. Our work shows that models of user
behavior that account for cognitive factors can better describe and predict
user behavior in social media.
