  To improve the theoretical prediction power for synthesizing superheavy
elements beyond Og, a Bayesian uncertainty quantification method is employed to
evaluate the uncertainty of the calculated evaporation residue cross sections
(ERCS) for the first time. The key parameters of the dinuclear system (DNS)
model, such as the diffusion parameter $\textit{a}$, the damping factor
$E_\mathrm{d}$, and the level-density parameter ratio
$a_\mathrm{f}/a_\mathrm{n}$ are systematically constrained by the Bayesian
analysis of recent ERCS data. One intriguing behavior is shown that the optimal
incident energies (OIE) corresponding to the largest ERCS weakly depend on the
fission process. We also find that these parameters are strongly correlated and
the uncertainty propagation considering the parameters independently is not
reasonable. The 2$\sigma$ confidence level of posterior distributions for $a =
0.58_{-0.01}^{+0.01}$ fm, $E_\mathrm{d} = 21.9_{-8.6}^{+8.8}$ MeV, and
$a_\mathrm{f}/a_\mathrm{n} = 1.044_{-0.059}^{+0.061}$ are obtained.
Furthermore, the confidence levels of the ERCS and OIE for synthesizing Z = 119
via the reactions($^{54}\mathrm{Cr}+^{243}\mathrm{Am}$),
(${}^{50}\mathrm{Ti}+{}^{249}\mathrm{Bk}$), and
(${}^{51}\mathrm{V}+{}^{248}\mathrm{Cm}$) are predicted. This work sets the
stage for future analyses to explore the OIE and reaction systems for the
synthesis of superheavy elements.
