  The absence of supersymmetry or other new physics at the Large Hadron
Collider (LHC) has lead many to question naturalness arguments. With Bayesian
statistics, we argue that natural models are most probable and that naturalness
is not merely an aesthetic principle. We calculate a probabilistic measure of
naturalness, the Bayesian evidence, for the Standard Model (SM) with and
without quadratic divergences, confirming that the SM with quadratic
divergences is improbable. We calculate the Bayesian evidence for the
Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) with naturalness
priors in three cases: with only the $M_Z$ measurement; with the $M_Z$
measurement and LHC measurements; and with the $M_Z$ measurement, $m_h$
measurement and a hypothetical null result from a $\sqrt{s}=100\,\text{TeV}$
Very Large Hadron Collider (VLHC) with $3000/\text{fb}$. The "fine-tuning
price" of the VLHC given LHC results would be $\sim400$, which is slightly less
than that of the LHC results given the electroweak scale ($\sim500$).
