  The aims of this study are to identify risk factors and develop a composite
risk factor of initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic in regency level in
Indonesia. Three risk factors, i.e., exposure, transmission and susceptibility,
are investigated. Multivariate regression, and Canonical correlation analysis
are implemented to measure the association between the risk factors and the
initial stage of reported COVID -19 cases. The result reveals strong
correlation between the composite risk factor and the number of COVID-19 cases
at the initial stage of pandemic. The influence of population density,
percentage of people commuting, international exposures, and number of public
places which prone to COVID-19 transmission are observed. Large regencies and
cities, mostly in Java, have high risk score. The largest risk score owned by
regencies that are part of the Jakarta Metropolitan Area.
