  The two dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on $D_\delta := [0,
2\pi\delta] \times [0, 2\pi]$ with $\delta \approx 1$, periodic boundary
conditions, and viscosity $0 < \nu \ll 1$ is considered. Bars and dipoles, two
explicitly given quasi-stationary states of the system, evolve on the time
scale $\mathcal{O}(e^{-\nu t})$ and have been shown to play a key role in its
long-time evolution. Of particular interest is the role that $\delta$ plays in
selecting which of these two states is observed. Recent numerical studies
suggest that, after a transient period of rapid decay of the high Fourier
modes, the bar state will be selected if $\delta \neq 1$, while the dipole will
be selected if $\delta = 1$. Our results support this claim and seek to
mathematically formalize it. We consider the system in Fourier space, project
it onto a center manifold consisting of the lowest eight Fourier modes, and use
this as a model to study the selection of bars and dipoles. It is shown for
this ODE model that the value of $\delta$ controls the behavior of the
asymptotic ratio of the low modes, thus determining the likelihood of observing
a bar state or dipole after an initial transient period. Moreover, in our
model, for all $\delta \approx 1$, there is an initial time period in which the
high modes decay at the rapid rate $\mathcal{O}(e^{-t/\nu})$, while the low
modes evolve at the slower $\mathcal{O}(e^{-\nu t})$ rate. The results for the
ODE model are proven using energy estimates and invariant manifolds and further
supported by formal asymptotic expansions and numerics.
