  While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist,
few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS
epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a
country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral
therapy (ART). Thus projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS
epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course
of the epidemic and coverage of ART. We propose a method for making
probabilistic projections of life expectancy to 2100 for all countries in the
world accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic and its
uncertainty, and adult ART coverage. We extend the current Bayesian
probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013) to
account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage. We evaluate our method using
out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than
the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for
projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while
projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged.
