  This paper introduces the Expected Booking (xB) model, a novel metric
designed to estimate the likelihood of a foul resulting in a yellow card in
football. Through three iterative experiments, employing ensemble methods, the
model demonstrates improved performance with additional features and an
expanded dataset. Analysis of FIFA World Cup 2022 data validates the model's
efficacy in providing insights into team and player fouling tactics, aligning
with actual defensive performance. The xB model addresses a gap in fouling
efficiency examination, emphasizing defensive strategies which often
overlooked. Further enhancements are suggested through the incorporation of
comprehensive data and spatial features.
