  The proliferation of mobile handheld devices in combination with the
technological advancements in mobile computing has led to a number of
innovative services that make use of the location information available on such
devices. Traditional yellow pages websites have now moved to mobile platforms,
giving the opportunity to local businesses and potential, near-by, customers to
connect. These platforms can offer an affordable advertisement channel to local
businesses. One of the mechanisms offered by location-based social networks
(LBSNs) allows businesses to provide special offers to their customers that
connect through the platform. We collect a large time-series dataset from
approximately 14 million venues on Foursquare and analyze the performance of
such campaigns using randomization techniques and (non-parametric) hypothesis
testing with statistical bootstrapping. Our main finding indicates that this
type of promotions are not as effective as anecdote success stories might
suggest. Finally, we design classifiers by extracting three different types of
features that are able to provide an educated decision on whether a special
offer campaign for a local business will succeed or not both in short and long
term.
