  Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical
variables that drive species' geographic distributions and indirectly through
socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global
consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been
produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these
direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales.
Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative
influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian
species in Vietnam and Australia. We find that socio-economically mediated
impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts, but
global shifts of production are likely to result in adverse impacts on habitats
worldwide. By translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit
predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a
consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy,
regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from
sub-national to global.
