  In an era where digital platforms increasingly mediate public discourse,
grasping the complexities and nuances in affective polarization--especially as
influenced by key figures on social media--has never been more vital. This
study delves into the intricate web of interactions on Twitter, now rebranded
as 'X', to unravel how influencer-led conversations catalyze shifts in public
sentiment, laying bare the complex dynamics that underpin online polarization.
Employing a novel methodological framework that includes counterfactual
analysis, we analyze scenarios with and without specific influencer-led
conversations. Our findings illuminate the significant role influencers play in
shaping public discourse, offering insights into the mechanisms of online
polarization and suggesting pathways for future research to mitigate
divisiveness and explore new methods for quantifying affective polarization.
This research contributes to the broader understanding of digital
communication's impact on societal polarization, underscoring the importance of
detailed analysis in developing strategies to foster a more cohesive digital
public sphere.
