  This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian
processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear
systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic
simulations, the proposed framework constructs a GP regression model and
predicts the system's performance over the entire set of possible
uncertainties. Included in the framework is a new metric to estimate the
confidence in those predictions based on the variance of the GP's cumulative
distribution function. This variance-based metric forms the basis of active
sampling algorithms that aim to minimize prediction error through careful
selection of simulations. In three case studies, the new active sampling
algorithms demonstrate up to a 35% improvement in prediction error over other
approaches and are able to correctly identify regions with low prediction
confidence through the variance metric.
