  People reason heuristically in situations resembling inferential puzzles such
as Bertrand's box paradox and the Monty Hall problem. The practical
significance of that fact for economic decision making is uncertain because a
departure from sound reasoning may, but does not necessarily, result in a
"cognitively biased" outcome different from what sound reasoning would have
produced. Criteria are derived here, applicable to both experimental and
non-experimental situations, for heuristic reasoning in an inferential-puzzle
situations to result, or not to result, in cognitively bias. In some
situations, neither of these criteria is satisfied, and whether or not agents'
posterior probability assessments or choices are cognitively biased cannot be
determined.
