  Cricketing knowledge tells us batting is more difficult early in a player's
innings but becomes easier as a player familiarizes themselves with the
conditions. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian survival analysis method to
predict the Test Match batting abilities for international cricketers. The
model is applied in two stages, firstly to individual players, allowing us to
quantify players' initial and equilibrium batting abilities, and the rate of
transition between the two. This is followed by implementing the model using a
hierarchical structure, providing us with more general inference concerning a
selected group of opening batsmen from New Zealand. The results indicate most
players begin their innings playing with between only a quarter and half of
their potential batting ability. Using the hierarchical structure we are able
to make predictions for the batting abilities of the next opening batsman to
debut for New Zealand. Additionally, we compare and identify players who excel
in the role of opening the batting, which has practical implications in terms
of batting order and team selection policy.
