  The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology that is useful for
analysing from a microeconomic perspective the incentives to entry, permanence
and exit in the market for pharmaceutical generics under fuzzy conditions. In
an empirical application of our proposed methodology, the potential towards
permanence of labs with different characteristics has been estimated. The case
we deal with is set in an open market where global players diversify into
different national markets of pharmaceutical generics. Risk issues are
significantly important in deterring decision makers from expanding in the
generic pharmaceutical business. However, not all players are affected in the
same way and/or to the same extent. Small, non-diversified generics labs are in
the worse position. We have highlighted that the expected NPV and the number of
generics in the portfolio of a pharmaceutical lab are important variables, but
that it is also important to consider the degree of diversification. Labs with
a higher potential for diversification across markets have an advantage over
smaller labs. We have described a fuzzy decision support system based on the
Mamdani model in order to determine the incentives for a laboratory to remain
in the market both when it is stable and when it is growing.
