  Methods for predicting the likely upper economic limit for the wind fleet in
the United Kingdom should be simple to use whilst being able to cope with
evolving technologies, costs and grid management strategies. This paper present
two such models, both of which use data on historical wind patterns but apply
different approaches to estimating the extent of wind shedding as a function of
the size of the wind fleet. It is clear from the models that as the wind fleet
increases in size, wind shedding will progressively increase, and as a result
the overall economic efficiency of the wind fleet will be reduced. The models
provide almost identical predictions of the efficiency loss and suggest that
the future upper economic limit of the wind fleet will be mainly determined by
the wind fleet Headroom, a concept described in some detail in the paper. The
results, which should have general applicability, are presented in graphical
form, and should obviate the need for further modelling using the primary data.
The paper also discusses the effectiveness of the wind fleet in decarbonising
the grid, and the growing competition between wind and solar fleets as sources
of electrical energy for the United Kingdom.
