  Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11
years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years
(1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for
next year? Based on the assumption that the higher rates will continue we use
an optimal combination of averages over the long and short time-periods to
produce a prediction that minimises MSE.
