  Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's
magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on
space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity
predictions a challenging task. This is best achieved through appropriately
constrained solar dynamo simulations and as such the first step towards
predictions is to understand the underlying physics of the solar dynamo
mechanism. In Babcock-Leighton type dynamo models, the poloidal field is
generated near the solar surface whereas the toroidal field is generated in the
solar interior. Therefore a finite time is necessary for the coupling of the
spatially segregated source layers of the dynamo. This time delay introduces a
memory in the dynamo mechanism which allows forecasting of future solar
activity. Here we discuss how this forecasting ability of the solar cycle is
affected by downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux. With significant
turbulent pumping the memory of the dynamo is severely degraded and thus long
term prediction of the solar cycle is not possible; only a short term
prediction of the next cycle peak may be possible based on observational data
assimilation at the previous cycle minimum.
