  In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest
or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to
the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or
subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable
also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to
stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy
proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with
the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly
well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the
availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are
usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be
highly nonlinear functions of the prices.
