  Scenario generation is the construction of a discrete random vector to
represent parameters of uncertain values in a stochastic program. Most
approaches to scenario generation are distribution-driven, that is, they
attempt to construct a random vector which captures well in a probabilistic
sense the uncertainty. On the other hand, a problem-driven approach may be able
to exploit the structure of a problem to provide a more concise representation
of the uncertainty.
  In this paper we propose an analytic approach to problem-driven scenario
generation. This approach applies to stochastic programs where a tail risk
measure, such as conditional value-at-risk, is applied to a loss function.
Since tail risk measures only depend on the upper tail of a distribution,
standard methods of scenario generation, which typically spread their scenarios
evenly across the support of the random vector, struggle to adequately
represent tail risk. Our scenario generation approach works by targeting the
construction of scenarios in areas of the distribution corresponding to the
tails of the loss distributions. We provide conditions under which our approach
is consistent with sampling, and as proof-of-concept demonstrate how our
approach could be applied to two classes of problem, namely network design and
portfolio selection. Numerical tests on the portfolio selection problem
demonstrate that our approach yields better and more stable solutions compared
to standard Monte Carlo sampling.
