  In an online prediction market, forecasters who could not see the current
state of the market until they made their own separate estimates moved their
estimates closer to the market forecast when the current state of the market
became known. Their first edits to the market forecast were very similar to the
first edits of forecasters who could always see the current state of the
market, and forecasters in both conditions had similar accuracy. These results
suggest that our more elaborate forecast elicitation method might not improve
forecasts and that any anchoring on the state of the market does not constitute
an error in judgment.
