  The purpose of this article is to propose a novel model of the effects of
changes in shelter and driving costs on car commuting distances in the
overheated Toronto housing market from 2011 to 2016. The model borrows from
theoretical concepts of microeconomics and urban geography to examine the
Toronto housing market. Using 2011 and 2016 Census data for census metropolitan
areas (CMAs) and census agglomerations (CAs) in Southern Ontario and computed
driving costs, the model of car commuting distance is based on variables of
allocation of monthly household income to monthly shelter costs and driving
costs as a function of the car driving distance to Toronto. Using this model,
we can predict the effect on car commuting distance due to changes in any of
the variables. The model also offers an explanation for communities of Toronto
car commuters beyond a driving radius that we might expect for daily commuting.
The model confirms that increases in shelter costs in the Toronto housing
market from 2011 to 2016 have forced the boundaries of feasible housing
locations outward, and forced households to move farther away, thus increasing
car commuting distance.
