  We study the long-term effects of the 2015 German minimum wage introduction
and its subsequent increases on regional employment. Using data from two waves
of the Structure of Earnings Survey allows us to estimate models that account
for changes in the minimum wage bite over time. While the introduction mainly
affected the labour market in East Germany, the raises are also increasingly
affecting low-wage regions in West Germany, such that around one third of
regions have changed their (binary) treatment status over time. We apply
different specifications and extensions of the classic
difference-in-differences approach as well as a set of new estimators that
enables for unbiased effect estimation with a staggered treatment adoption and
heterogeneous treatment effects. Our results indicate a small negative effect
on dependent employment of 0.5 percent, no significant effect on employment
subject to social security contributions, and a significant negative effect of
about 2.4 percent on marginal employment until the first quarter of 2022. The
extended specifications suggest additional effects of the minimum wage
increases, as well as stronger negative effects on total dependent and marginal
employment for those regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage in
2015 and 2019.
