  Rapid climate change has wide-ranging implications for the Arctic region,
including sea ice loss, increased geopolitical attention, and expanding
economic activity, including a dramatic increase in shipping activity. As a
result, the risk of harmful non-native marine species being introduced into
this critical region will increase unless policy and management steps are
implemented in response. Using big data about shipping, ecoregions, and
environmental conditions, we leverage network analysis and data mining
techniques to assess, visualize, and project ballast water-mediated species
introductions into the Arctic and dispersal of non-native species within the
Arctic. We first identify high-risk connections between the Arctic and
non-Arctic ports that could be sources of non-native species over 15 years
(1997-2012) and observe the emergence of shipping hubs in the Arctic where the
cumulative risk of non-native species introduction is increasing. We then
consider how environmental conditions can constrain this Arctic introduction
network for species with different physiological limits, thus providing a
species-level tool for decision-makers. Next, we focus on within-Arctic
ballast-mediated species dispersal where we use higher-order network analysis
to identify critical shipping routes that may facilitate species dispersal
within the Arctic. The risk assessment and projection framework we propose
could inform risk-based assessment and management of ship-borne invasive
species in the Arctic.
