  It is well accepted that adoption of innovations are described by S-curves
(slow start, accelerating period, and slow end). In this paper, we analyze how
much information on the dynamics of innovation spreading can be obtained from a
quantitative description of S-curves. We focus on the adoption of linguistic
innovations for which detailed databases of written texts from the last 200
years allow for an unprecedented statistical precision. Combining data analysis
with simulations of simple models (e.g., the Bass dynamics on complex networks)
we identify signatures of endogenous and exogenous factors in the S-curves of
adoption. We propose a measure to quantify the strength of these factors and
three different methods to estimate it from S-curves. We obtain cases in which
the exogenous factors are dominant (in the adoption of German orthographic
reforms and of one irregular verb) and cases in which endogenous factors are
dominant (in the adoption of conventions for romanization of Russian names and
in the regularization of most studied verbs). These results show that the shape
of S-curve is not universal and contains information on the adoption mechanism.
(published at "J. R. Soc. Interface, vol. 11, no. 101, (2014) 1044"; DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2014.1044)
