  Let \Theta be a smooth compact oriented manifold without boundary, embedded
in a euclidean space and let \gamma be a smooth map \Theta into a riemannian
manifold \Lambda. An unknown state \theta \in \Theta is observed via
X=\theta+\epsilon \xi where \epsilon>0 is a small parameter and \xi is a white
Gaussian noise. For a given smooth prior on \Theta and smooth estimator g of
the map \gamma we derive a second-order asymptotic expansion for the related
Bayesian risk. The calculation involves the geometry of the underlying spaces
\Theta and \Lambda, in particular, the integration-by-parts formula. Using this
result, a second-order minimax estimator of \gamma is found based on the modern
theory of harmonic maps and hypo-elliptic differential operators.
