  There has recently been widespread discussion of whether large language
models might be sentient or conscious. Should we take this idea seriously? I
will break down the strongest reasons for and against. Given mainstream
assumptions in the science of consciousness, there are significant obstacles to
consciousness in current models: for example, their lack of recurrent
processing, a global workspace, and unified agency. At the same time, it is
quite possible that these obstacles will be overcome in the next decade or so.
I conclude that while it is somewhat unlikely that current large language
models are conscious, we should take seriously the possibility that successors
to large language models may be conscious in the not-too-distant future.
