  The integration and innovation of finance and technology have gradually
transformed the financial system into a complex one. Analyses of the causesd of
abnormal fluctuations in the financial market to extract early warning
indicators revealed that most early warning systems are qualitative and causal.
However, these models cannot be used to forecast the risk of the financial
market benchmark. Therefore, from a quantitative analysis perspective, we focus
on the mean and volatility uncertainties of the stock index (benchmark) and
then construct three early warning indicators: mean uncertainty, volatility
uncertainty, and ALM-G-value at risk. Based on the novel warning indicators, we
establish a new abnormal fluctuations warning model, which will provide a
short-term warning for the country, society, and individuals to reflect in
advance.
