  This paper identifies the causal effects of full-scale kremlin aggression on
socio-economic outcomes in Ukraine three months into the full-scale war. First,
forced migration after February 24th, 2022 is associated with an elevated risk
of becoming unemployed by 7.5% points. Second, difference-in-difference
regressions show that in regions with fighting on the ground females without a
higher education face a 9.6-9.9% points higher risk of not having enough money
for food. Finally, in the regions subject to ground attack females with and
without a higher education, as well as males without a higher education are
more likely to become unemployed by 6.1-6.9%, 4.2-4.7% and 6.5-6.6% points
correspondingly. This persistent gender gap in poverty and unemployment, when
even higher education is not protective for females, calls for policy action.
While more accurate results may obtain with more comprehensive surveys, this
paper provides a remarkably robust initial estimate of the war's effects on
poverty, unemployment and internal migration.
