  This work presents a methodology for forward electricity contract price
projection based on market equilibrium and social welfare optimization. In the
methodology supply and demand for forward contracts are produced in such a way
that each agent (generator/load/trader) optimizes a risk adjusted expected
value of its revenue/cost. When uncertainties are represented by a discrete
number of scenarios, a key result in the paper is that contract price
corresponds to the dual variable of the equilibrium constraints in the linear
programming problem associated to the optimization of total agents' welfare.
Besides computing an equilibrium contract price for a given year, the
methodology can also be used to compute the evolution of the probability
distribution associated to a contract price with a future delivery period; this
an import issue in quantifying forward contract risks. Examples of the
methodology application are presented and discussed
