  The synthetic control method is an empirical methodology forcausal inference
using observational data. By observing thespread of COVID-19 throughout the
world, we analyze the dataon the number of deaths and cases in different
regions usingthe power of prediction, counterfactual analysis, and
syntheticinterventions of the synthetic control and its extensions. Weobserve
that the number of deaths and cases in different re-gions would have been much
smaller had the lockdowns beenimposed earlier and had the re-openings been done
later, es-pecially among indoor bars and restaurants. We also analyzethe
speculated impact of herd immunity on the spread giventhe population of each
region and show that lockdown policieshave a very strong impact on the spread
regardless of the levelof prior infections.
  Our most up-to-date code, model, and data can be foundon github:
https://github.com/niloofarbayat/COVID19-synthetic-control-analysis
