  With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is
expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how
different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this
paper, we describe a model for predicting the frequency of climate disasters
and the severity of the resulting number of deaths. The frequency of disasters
is described as a Poisson process driven by aggregate CO2 emissions. The
severity of disasters is described using a generalized Pareto distribution
driven by the trend in regional real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.
We predict the death toll for different types of climate disasters based on the
projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the
population, the regional real GDP per capita, and aggregate CO2 emissions in
the "sustainable" and "business-as-usual" baseline scenarios.
