  We present new theoretical and empirical results on the probability
distributions of species persistence times in natural ecosystems. Persistence
times, defined as the timespans occurring between species' colonization and
local extinction in a given geographic region, are empirically estimated from
local observations of species' presence/absence. A connected sampling problem
is presented, generalized and solved analytically. Species persistence is shown
to provide a direct connection with key spatial macroecological patterns like
species-area and endemics-area relationships. Our empirical analysis pertains
to two different ecosystems and taxa: a herbaceous plant community and a
estuarine fish database. Despite the substantial differences in ecological
interactions and spatial scales, we confirm earlier evidence on the general
properties of the scaling of persistence times, including the predicted effects
of the structure of the spatial interaction network. The framework tested here
allows to investigate directly nature and extent of spatial effects in the
context of ecosystem dynamics. The notable coherence between spatial and
temporal macroecological patterns, theoretically derived and empirically
verified, is suggested to underlie general features of the dynamic evolution of
ecosystems.
