  Modeling of transient events in the solar atmosphere requires the confluence
of 3 critical elements: (1) model sophistication, (2) data availability, and
(3) data assimilation. This white paper describes required advances that will
enable statistical flare and CME forecasting (e.g. eruption probability and
timing, estimation of strength, and CME details, such as speed and magnetic
field orientation) similar to weather prediction on Earth.
