  A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach
combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations
in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5)
with information from other sources, such as precursor and/or dynamo models.
The forecasting is illustrated in application to two historical cycles (cycles
19 and 20), and then to the current solar cycle (cycle 24). The new method
allows the prediction of quantiles, i.e. the probability that the sunspot
number falls outside large or small bounds at a given future time. It also
permits Monte Carlo simulations to identify the expected size and timing of the
peak daily sunspot number, as well as the smoothed sunspot number for a cycle.
These simulations show how the large variance in daily sunspot number
determines the actual reliability of any forecast of the smoothed maximum of a
cycle. For cycle 24 we forecast a maximum daily sunspot number of $166\pm 24$,
to occur in March 2013, and a maximum value of the smoothed sunspot number of
$66\pm5$, indicating a very small solar cycle.
