  The main objective of the study is to determine the probability distributions
of the geomagnetic Dst index as a function of the coronal mass ejection (CME)
and solar flare parameters for the purpose of establishing a probabilistic
forecast tool for the geomagnetic storm intensity. Several CME and flare
parameters as well as the effect of successive-CME occurrence in changing the
probability for a certain range of Dst index values, were examined. The results
confirm some of already known relationships between remotely-observed
properties of solar eruptive events and geomagnetic storms, namely the
importance of initial CME speed, apparent width, source position, and the
associated solar flare class. In this paper we quantify these relationships in
a form to be used for space weather forecasting in future. The results of the
statistical study are employed to construct an empirical statistical model for
predicting the probability of the geomagnetic storm intensity based on remote
solar observations of CMEs and flares.
