  We prove a sharp bound for the minimal doubling of a small measurable subset
of a compact connected Lie group. Namely, let $G$ be a compact connected Lie
group of dimension $d_G$, we show that for for all measurable subsets $A$, we
have $$\mu_G(A^2) \geq \left(2^{d_G-d_H} -
C\mu_G(A)^{\frac{2}{d_G-d_H}}\right)\mu_G(A)$$ where $d_H$ is the maximal
dimension of a proper closed subgroup $H$ and $C > 0$ is a dimensional
constant. This settles a conjecture of Breuillard and Green, and recovers and
improves - with completely different methods - a recent result of
Jing--Tran--Zhang corresponding to the case $G=SO_3(\mathbb{R})$. As is often
the case, the above doubling inequality stems from a special case of general
product-set estimates. We prove that for all $\epsilon >0$ and for any pair of
sufficiently small measurable subsets $A,B$ a Brunn--Minkowski-type inequality
holds:
  $$ \mu_G(AB)^{\frac{1}{d_G-d_H}} \geq (1-\epsilon)\left(
\mu_G(A)^{\frac{1}{d_G-d_H}} + \mu_G(B)^{\frac{1}{d_G-d_H}}\right).$$
  Going beyond the scope of the Breuillard--Green conjecture, we prove a
stability result asserting that the only subsets with close to minimal doubling
are essentially neighbourhoods of proper subgroups i.e. of the form
$$H_{\delta}:=\{g \in G: d(g,H)<\delta\}$$ where $H$ denotes a proper closed
subgroup of maximal dimension, $d$ denotes a bi-invariant distance on $G$ and
$\delta >0$.
  Our approach relies on a combination of two toolsets: optimal transports and
its recent applications to the Brunn--Minkowski inequality, and the structure
theory of compact approximate subgroups.
