  This paper explores deterioration in Alzheimers Disease using Machine
Learning. Subjects were split into two datasets based on baseline diagnosis
(Cognitively Normal, Mild Cognitive Impairment), with outcome of deterioration
at final visit (a binomial essentially yes/no categorisation) using data from
the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (demographics, genetics, CSF,
imaging, and neuropsychological testing etc). Six machine learning models,
including gradient boosting, were built, and evaluated on these datasets using
a nested crossvalidation procedure, with the best performing models being put
through repeated nested cross-validation at 100 iterations. We were able to
demonstrate good predictive ability using CART predicting which of those in the
cognitively normal group deteriorated and received a worse diagnosis (AUC =
0.88). For the mild cognitive impairment group, we were able to achieve good
predictive ability for deterioration with Elastic Net (AUC = 0.76).
