  The empirical and theoretical justification of Gartner hype curves is a very
relevant open question in the field of Technological Life Cycle analysis. The
scope of the present paper is to introduce a simple model describing the growth
of scientific/technological research impact, in the specific case where science
is the main source of a new idea driving a technological development, leading
to hype-type evolution curves. The main idea of the model is that, in a first
stage, the growth of the scientific interest of a new specific field (as can be
measured by publication numbers) basically follows the classical logistic
growth curve. At a second stage, starting at a later trigger time, the
technological development based on that scientific idea (as can be measured by
patent deposits) can be described as the integral (in a mathematical sense) of
the first curve, since technology is based on the overall accumulated
scientific knowledge. The model is tested through a bibliometric analysis of
the publication and patent deposit rate for Organic Light Emitting Diodes
(OLED) scientific research and technology, as well as for other emerging
technologies.
