  Numerical model forecasts of near-surface temperatures are prone to error.
This is because terrain can exert a strong influence on temperature that is not
captured in numerical weather models due to spatial resolution limitations. To
account for the terrain height difference between the forecast model and
reality, temperatures are commonly corrected using a vertical adjustment based
on a fixed lapse rate. This, however, ignores the fact that true lapse rates
vary from 1.2 K temperature drop per 100 m of ascent to more than 10 K
temperature rise over the same vertical distance. In this work, we develop
topographic visualization techniques to assess the resulting uncertainties in
near-surface temperatures and reveal relationships between those uncertainties,
features in the resolved and unresolved topography, and the temperature
distribution in the near-surface atmosphere. Our techniques highlight common
limitations of the current lapse rate scheme and hint at their topographic
dependencies in the context of the prevailing weather conditions. Together with
scientists working in postprocessing and downscaling of numerical model output,
we use these findings to develop an improved lapse rate scheme. This model
adapts to both the topography and the current weather situation. We examine the
quality and physical consistency of the new estimates by comparing them with
station observations around the world and by including visual representations
of radiation-slope interactions.
