  Though general awareness around it may be low, space cyberattacks are an
increasingly urgent problem given the vital role that space systems play in the
modern world. Open-source or public discussions about it typically revolve
around only a couple generic scenarios, namely satellite hacking and signals
jamming or spoofing. But there are so many more possibilities.
  The report offers a scenario-prompt generator -- a taxonomy of sorts, called
the ICARUS matrix -- that can create more than 4 million unique
scenario-prompts. We will offer a starting set of 42 scenarios, briefly
describing each one, to begin priming the imagination-pump so that many more
researchers can bring their diverse expertise and perspectives to bear on the
problem.
  A failure to imagine novel scenarios is a major risk in being taken by
surprise and severely harmed by threat actors who are constantly devising new
ways, inventive and resourceful ways, to breach the digital systems that
control our wired world. To stay vigilant, defenders likewise need to be
imaginative to keep up in this adversarial dance between hunter and prey in
cybersecurity.
  More than offering novel scenarios, we will also explore the drivers of the
space cybersecurity problem, which include at least seven factors we have
identified. For instance, the shared threat of space debris would seem to push
rational states and actors to avoid kinetic conflicts in orbit, which weighs in
favor of cyberoperations as the dominant form of space conflicts.
  Outer space is the next frontier for cybersecurity. To guard against space
cyberattacks, we need to understand and anticipate them, and imagination is at
the very heart of both cybersecurity and frontiers.
