  We compare forecasts of United States inflation from the Survey of
Professional Forecasters (SPF) to predictions made by simple statistical
techniques. In nowcasting, economic expertise is persuasive. When projecting
beyond the current quarter, novel yet simplistic probabilistic no-change
forecasts are equally competitive. We further interpret surveys as ensembles of
forecasts, and show that they can be used similarly to the ways in which
ensemble prediction systems have transformed weather forecasting. Then we
borrow another idea from weather forecasting, in that we apply statistical
techniques to postprocess the SPF forecast, based on experience from the recent
past. The foregoing conclusions remain unchanged after survey postprocessing.
