  By using small computing devices deployed at user premises, Autonomous Demand
Response (ADR) adapts users electricity consumption to given time-dependent
electricity tariffs. This allows end-users to save on their electricity bill
and Distribution System Operators to optimise (through suitable time-dependent
tariffs) management of the electric grid by avoiding demand peaks.
Unfortunately, even with ADR, users power consumption may deviate from the
expected (minimum cost) one, e.g., because ADR devices fail to correctly
forecast energy needs at user premises. As a result, the aggregated power
demand may present undesirable peaks. In this paper we address such a problem
by presenting methods and a software tool (APD-Analyser) implementing them,
enabling Distribution System Operators to effectively verify that a given
time-dependent electricity tariff achieves the desired goals even when
end-users deviate from their expected behaviour. We show feasibility of the
proposed approach through a realistic scenario from a medium voltage Danish
distribution network.
