  In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear
of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We
show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal
modes of qualitative behavior---no outbreak, controlled outbreak, and
uncontrolled outbreak. We also demonstrate that the model can produce transient
and sustained waves of infection consistent with secondary outbreaks. We fit
the model to cumulative COVID-19 case and mortality data from several regions.
Our analysis suggests that regions which experience a significant decline after
the first wave of infection, such as Canada and Israel, are more likely to
contain secondary waves of infection, whereas regions which only achieve
moderate success in mitigating the disease's spread initially, such as the
United States, are likely to experience substantial secondary waves or
uncontrolled outbreaks.
