  The Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle is solidly based on a provably
ideal method of inference using Kolmogorov complexity. We test how the theory
behaves in practice on a general problem in model selection: that of learning
the best model granularity. The performance of a model depends critically on
the granularity, for example the choice of precision of the parameters. Too
high precision generally involves modeling of accidental noise and too low
precision may lead to confusion of models that should be distinguished. This
precision is often determined ad hoc. In MDL the best model is the one that
most compresses a two-part code of the data set: this embodies ``Occam's
Razor.'' In two quite different experimental settings the theoretical value
determined using MDL coincides with the best value found experimentally. In the
first experiment the task is to recognize isolated handwritten characters in
one subject's handwriting, irrespective of size and orientation. Based on a new
modification of elastic matching, using multiple prototypes per character, the
optimal prediction rate is predicted for the learned parameter (length of
sampling interval) considered most likely by MDL, which is shown to coincide
with the best value found experimentally. In the second experiment the task is
to model a robot arm with two degrees of freedom using a three layer
feed-forward neural network where we need to determine the number of nodes in
the hidden layer giving best modeling performance. The optimal model (the one
that extrapolizes best on unseen examples) is predicted for the number of nodes
in the hidden layer considered most likely by MDL, which again is found to
coincide with the best value found experimentally.
