  Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships
between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has
emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps
counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during
expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the
specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these
inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous
panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression
models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust
to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect,
and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose
alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology
on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and
consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all
age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and
traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality
and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state
variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic
association.
