  An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing
from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak
with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand
reported deaths worldwide. During this period of an epidemic when
human-to-human transmission is established and reported cases of coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19) are rising worldwide, investigation of control
strategies and forecasting are necessary for health care planning. In this
study, we propose and analyze a compartmental epidemic model of COVID-19 to
predict and control the outbreak. The basic reproduction number and control
reproduction number are calculated analytically. A detailed stability analysis
of the model is performed to observe the dynamics of the system. We calibrated
the proposed model to fit daily data from the United Kingdom (UK) where the
situation is still alarming. Our findings suggest that independent
self-sustaining human-to-human spread ($R_0>1$, $R_c>1$) is already present.
Short-term predictions show that the decreasing trend of new COVID-19 cases is
well captured by the model. Further, we found that effective management of
quarantined individuals is more effective than management of isolated
individuals to reduce the disease burden. Thus, if limited resources are
available, then investing on the quarantined individuals will be more fruitful
in terms of reduction of cases.
