  We propose a comprehensive bibliometric study of the profile of Nobel
prizewinners in chemistry and physics from 1901 to 2007, based on citation data
available over the same period. The data allows us to observe the evolution of
the profiles of winners in the years leading up to (and following) nominations
and awarding of the Nobel Prize. The degree centrality and citation rankings in
these fields confirm that the Prize is awarded at the peak of the winners'
careers, despite brief a Halo Effect observable in the years following the
attribution of the Prize. Changes in the size and organization of the two
fields result in a rapid decline of predictive power of bibliometric data over
the century. This can be explained not only by the growing size and
fragmentation of the two disciplines, but also, at least in the case of
physics, by an implicit hierarchy in the most legitimate topics within the
discipline, as well as among the scientists selected for the Prize.
Furthermore, the lack of readily-identifiable dominant contemporary physicists
suggests that there are few new paradigm shifts within the field, as perceived
by the scientific community as a whole.
