  Reference class forecasting is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic
misrepresentation in infrastructure projects and programmes. In 2012 the Hong
Kong government's Development Bureau commissioned a feasibility study on
reference class forecasting in Hong Kong - a first for the Asia-Pacific region.
This study involved 25 roadwork projects, for which forecast costs and
durations were compared with actual outcomes. The analysis established and
verified the statistical distribution of the forecast accuracy at various
stages of project development, and benchmarked the projects against a sample of
863 similar projects. The study contributed to the understanding of how to
improve forecasts by de-biasing early estimates, explicitly considering the
risk appetite of decision makers, and safeguarding public funding allocation by
balancing exceedance and under-use of project budgets.
