  We use molecular dynamics simulations of the SPC-E model of liquid water to
derive probability distributions for water density fluctuations in probe
volumes of different shapes and sizes, both in the bulk as well as near
hydrophobic and hydrophilic surfaces. To obtain our results, we introduce a
biased sampling of coarse-grained densities, which in turn biases the actual
solvent density. The technique is easily combined with molecular dynamics
integration algorithms. Our principal result is that the probability for
density fluctuations of water near a hydrophobic surface, with or without
surface-water attractions, is akin to density fluctuations at the water-vapor
interface. Specifically, the probability of density depletion near the surface
is significantly larger than that in bulk. In contrast, we find that the
statistics of water density fluctuations near a model hydrophilic surface are
similar to that in the bulk.
