  Various methods achieving importance sampling in ensembles of nonequilibrium
trajectories enable to estimate free energy differences and, by
maximum-likelihood post-processing, to reconstruct free energy landscapes.
Here, based on Bayes theorem, we propose a more direct method in which a
posterior likelihood function is used both to construct the steered dynamics
and to infer the contribution to equilibrium of all the sampled states. The
method is implemented with two steering schedules. First, using non-autonomous
steering, we calculate the migration barrier of the vacancy in Fe-alpha.
Second, using an autonomous scheduling related to metadynamics and equivalent
to temperature-accelerated molecular dynamics, we accurately reconstruct the
two-dimensional free energy landscape of the 38-atom Lennard-Jones cluster as a
function of an orientational bond-order parameter and energy, down to the
solid-solid structural transition temperature of the cluster and without
maximum-likelihood post-processing.
