  The spread of African swine fever (ASF) poses a grave threat to the global
swine industry. Understanding transmission dynamics, such as through
mechanistic modeling, is critical for designing effective control strategies.
Articles were examined across multiple epidemiological and model
characteristics. Model filiation was determined through creation of a
neighbor-joined tree using phylogenetic software. Of 34 four articles
qualifying for inclusion, four main modelling objectives were identified:
estimating transmission parameters (11 studies), assessing determinants of
transmission (7), examining consequences of hypothetical outbreaks (5), and
assessing alternative control strategies (11). Estimated transmission
parameters varied widely as did parameter assumptions between models.
Uncertainties on epidemiological and ecological parameters were usually
accounted for to assess the impact on the modeled infection trajectory. Almost
all models are host specific, being developed for either domestic pigs or wild
boar despite the fact that spillover events between domestic pigs and wild boar
are evidenced to play an important role in ASF outbreaks. The development of
models incorporating such transmission routes is crucial. All compared control
strategies were defined a priori, and future models should be built to identify
optimal contributions across many control methods. Further, control strategies
were examined in competition, opposed to how they would be synergistically
implemented. While comparing strategies is beneficial for identifying a
rank-order efficacy of control methods, this structure does not necessarily
determine the most effective combination of all available strategies. In order
for ASFV models to effectively support decision-making in controlling ASFV
globally, these modelling limitations need to be addressed.
