  In this paper, we study the likelihood of Bernie Sanders supporters voting
for Donald Trump instead of Hillary Clinton. Building from a unique time-series
dataset of the three candidates' Twitter followers, which we make public here,
we first study the proportion of Sanders followers who simultaneously follow
Trump (but not Clinton) and how this evolves over time. Then we train a
convolutional neural network to classify the gender of Sanders followers, and
study whether men are more likely to jump ship for Trump than women. Our study
shows that between March and May an increasing proportion of Sanders followers
are following Trump (but not Clinton). The proportion of Sanders followers who
follow Clinton but not Trump has actually decreased. Equally important, our
study suggests that the jumping ship behavior will be affected by gender and
that men are more likely to switch to Trump than women.
