  The MACHO and OGLE collaborations have argued that the three longest duration
bulge microlensing events are likely caused by nearby black holes, given the
small velocities measured with microlensing parallax and nondetection of the
lenses. However, these events may be due to lensing by more numerous lower mass
stars at greater distances. We find a posteriori probabilities of 76%, 16%, and
4% that the three longest events are black holes, assuming a Salpeter initial
mass function (IMF) and a 40 M cutoff for neutron star progenitors; the numbers
depend strongly on the assumed mass function but favor a black hole for the
longest event for most standard IMFs. The longest events (>600 days) have an a
priori 26% probability of being black holes for a standard mass function. We
propose a new technique for measuring the lens mass function using the mass
distribution of long events measured with the Advanced Camera for Surveys on
the Hubble Space Telescope, the Very Large Telescope Interferometer, the Space
Interferometry Mission, or the Global Astrometric Interferometer for
Astrophysics.
