  While the size of China's mobile population continues to expand, the
fertility rate is significantly lower than the stable generation replacement
level of the population, and the structural imbalance of human resource supply
has attracted widespread attention. This paper uses LPM and Probit models to
estimate the impact of house prices on the fertility intentions of the mobile
population based on data from the 2018 National Mobile Population Dynamics
Monitoring Survey. The lagged land sales price is used as an instrumental
variable of house price to mitigate the potential endogeneity problem. The
results show that for every 100\% increase in the ratio of house price to
household income of mobile population, the fertility intention of the female
mobile population of working age at the inflow location will decrease by
4.42\%, and the marginal effect of relative house price on labor force
fertility intention is EXP(-0.222); the sensitivity of mobile population
fertility intention to house price is affected by the moderating effect of
infrastructure construction at the inflow location. The willingness to have
children in the inflow area is higher for female migrants of working age with
lower age, smaller family size and higher education. Based on the above
findings, the study attempts to provide a new practical perspective for the
mainline institutional change and balanced economic development in China's
economic transition phase.
