  Current contingency reserve criteria ignore the likelihood of individual
contingencies and, thus, their impact on system reliability and risk. This
paper develops an iterative approach, inspired by the current
security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) practice, enabling system operators
to determine risk-cognizant contingency reserve requirements and their
allocation with minimal alterations to the current SCUC practice. The proposed
approach uses generator and transmission system reliability models, including
failure-to synchronize and adverse conditions, to compute contingency
probabilities, which inform a risk-based system reliability assessment, and
ensures reserve deliverability by learning the response of generators to
post-contingency states within the SCUC. The effectiveness of the proposed
approach is demonstrated using the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium update of
the Reliability Test System.
