  In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has been identified to
cause acute respiratory disease in humans. An outbreak of this disease has been
reported in mainland China with the city of Wuhan as the recognized epicenter.
The disease has also been exported to other countries, including the
Philippines, but the level of spread is still under control (as of 08 February
2020). To describe and predict the dynamics of the disease, several preliminary
mathematical models are formulated by various international study groups. Here,
the insights that can be drawn from these models are discussed, especially as
inputs for designing strategies to control the epidemics. Proposed model-based
strategies on how to prevent the spread of the disease in local setting, such
as during large social gatherings, are also presented. The model shows that the
exposure time is a significant factor in spreading the disease. With a basic
reproduction number equal to 2, and 14-day infectious period, an infected
person staying more than 9 hours in the event could infect other people.
Assuming the exposure time is 18 hours, the model recommends that attendees of
the social gathering should have a protection with more than 70 percent
effectiveness.
