  This paper presents a general theory that aims at explaining timescales
observed empirically in technology transitions and predicting those of future
transitions. This framework is used further to derive a theory for exploring
the dynamics that underlie the complex phenomenon of irreversible and path
dependent price or policy induced efficiency changes. Technology transitions
are known to follow patterns well described by logistic functions, which should
more rigorously be modelled mathematically using the Lotka-Volterra family of
differential equations, originally developed to described the population growth
of competing species. The dynamic evolution of technology has also been
described theoretically using evolutionary dynamics similar to that observed in
nature. The theory presented here joins both approaches and presents a
methodology for predicting changeover time constants in order to describe real
systems of competing technologies. The problem of price or policy induced
efficiency changes becomes naturally explained using this framework. Examples
of application are given.
