  This is part of a series of weekly influenza forecasts made during the
2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present results of forecasts initiated
following assimilation of observations for Week 1 (i.e. the forecast begins
January 6, 2013) for municipalities in the United States. These forecasts were
performed on January 11, 2013. Results from forecasts initiated the six
previous weeks (Weeks 47-52) are also presented. The accuracy of these
predictions will not be known for certain until the conclusion of the current
influenza season; however, at the moment a number of the forecasted peaks
appear to be inaccurate. This inaccuracy may be due to the virulence of
influenza this season, which appears to be sending more influenza-infected
persons to seek medical attention and inflates ILI levels (and possibly the
proportion testing influenza positive) relative to years with milder flu
strains. New forecasts that adjust, or scale, for this difference and match the
two focus cities that appear to have already peaked are identified. These new
forecasts will be used, in addition to the previously scaled forms, to make
influenza predictions for the remainder of the season.
