  The paper deals with a modeling of the ongoing epidemic caused by Coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the closed territory of the Republic of Croatia.
Using the official public information on the number of confirmed infected,
recovered and deceased individuals, the modified SEIR compartmental model is
developed to describe the underlying dynamics of the epidemic. Fitted modified
SEIR model provides the prediction of the disease progression in the near
future, considering strict control interventions by means of social distancing
and quarantine for infected and at-risk individuals introduced at the beginning
of COVID-19 spread on February, 25th by Croatian Ministry of Health. Assuming
the accuracy of provided data and satisfactory representativeness of the model
used, the basic reproduction number is derived. Obtained results portray
potential positive developments and justify the stringent precautionary
measures introduced by the Ministry of Health.
