  Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are shaping modern life, from
transportation, health care, science, finance, to national defense. Forecasts
of AI development could help improve policy- and decision-making. We report the
results from a large survey of AI and machine learning (ML) researchers on
their beliefs about progress in AI. The survey, fielded in late 2019, elicited
forecasts for near-term AI development milestones and high- or human-level
machine intelligence, defined as when machines are able to accomplish every or
almost every task humans are able to do currently. As part of this study, we
re-contacted respondents from a highly-cited study by Grace et al. (2018), in
which AI/ML researchers gave forecasts about high-level machine intelligence
and near-term milestones in AI development. Results from our 2019 survey show
that, in aggregate, AI/ML researchers surveyed placed a 50% likelihood of
human-level machine intelligence being achieved by 2060. The results show
researchers newly contacted in 2019 expressed similar beliefs about the
progress of advanced AI as respondents in the Grace et al. (2018) survey. For
the recontacted participants from the Grace et al. (2018) study, the aggregate
forecast for a 50% likelihood of high-level machine intelligence shifted from
2062 to 2076, although this change is not statistically significant, likely due
to the small size of our panel sample. Forecasts of several near-term AI
milestones have reduced in time, suggesting more optimism about AI progress.
Finally, AI/ML researchers also exhibited significant optimism about how
human-level machine intelligence will impact society.
