  Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain
and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we propose a
generative model based on a stochastic differential equation that allows us to
analyse the polls leading up to the UK 2016 EU referendum. After a preliminary
analysis of the time series of poll results, we provide empirical evidence that
the beta distribution, which is a natural choice when modelling proportions,
fits the marginal distribution of this time series. We also provide evidence of
the predictive power of the proposed model.
