  The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is mainly transmitted by the
spittlebug, Philaenus spumarius, in Europe, where it has caused significant
economic damage to olive and almond trees. Understanding the factors that
determine disease dynamics in pathosystems that share similarities can help
design control strategies focused on minimizing transmission chains. Here we
introduce a compartmental model for Xf-caused diseases in Europe that accounts
for the main relevant epidemiological processes, including the seasonal
dynamics of P. spumarius. The model was confronted with epidemiological data
from the two major outbreaks of Xf in Europe, the olive quick disease syndrome
(OQDS) in Apulia, Italy, caused by the subspecies pauca, and the almond leaf
scorch disease (ALSD) in Majorca, Spain, caused by subspecies multiplex and
fastidiosa. Using a Bayesian inference framework, we show how the model
successfully reproduces the general field data in both diseases. In a global
sensitivity analysis, the vector-plant and plant-vector transmission rates,
together with the vector removal rate, were the most influential parameters in
determining the time of the infected host population peak, the incidence peak
and the final number of dead hosts. We also used our model to check different
vector-based control strategies, showing that a joint strategy focused on
increasing the rate of vector removal while lowering the number of annual
newborn vectors is optimal for disease control.
