  The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant
challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies
potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This
work considers a method to evaluate the impact of rapid electrification of heat
by utilising historic gas demand data. The work is intended to provide a
data-driven complement to popular generative heat demand models, with a
particular aim of informing regulators and actors in capacity markets as to how
policy changes could impact on medium-term system adequacy metrics (up to five
years ahead). Results from a GB case study show that the representation of heat
demand using scaled gas demand profiles increases the rate at which 1-in-20
system peaks grow by 60\%, when compared to the use of scaled electricity
demand profiles. Low end-use system efficiency, in terms of aggregate
coefficient of performance and demand side response capabilities, are shown to
potentially lead to a doubling of electrical demand-temperature sensitivity
following five years of heat demand growth.
