  Mission planners for aircraft operating under threat of detection by
ground-based radar systems are concerned with the probability of detection.
Current path planning methods for such scenarios consider the aircraft pose,
radar position, and radar parameters to be deterministic and known. This paper
presents a framework for incorporating uncertainty in these quantities into a
radar detection model that is used by a path planner. The developed path
planner evaluates the radar detection risk in the presence of uncertainties and
uses linear covariance analysis to efficiently generate error budgets. The
error budgets identify the contribution of each source of uncertainty (e.g.,
sensor measurement noise, radar position uncertainty) to the overall
variability in the probability of detection. The framework is applied to a
modified visibility graph path planner that uses the detection risk and its
variability to calculate path adjustments, which maintain the detection risk
below a specified threshold. The results show that the framework is effective
at providing actionable information to the mission planner that improves the
final planned path and reduces the detection risk.
