  Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public
doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a
simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets.
Traders adapt their beliefs about future temperatures based on the profits of
other traders in their social network. We simulate two alternative climate
futures, in which global temperatures are primarily driven either by carbon
dioxide or by solar irradiance. These represent, respectively, the scientific
consensus and a hypothesis advanced by prominent skeptics. We conduct
sensitivity analyses to determine how a variety of factors describing both the
market and the physical climate may affect traders' beliefs about the cause of
global climate change. Market participation causes most traders to converge
quickly toward believing the "true" climate model, suggesting that a climate
market could be useful for building public consensus.
