  The northern Chile region of the Nazca subduction zone ruptured in an
Mw$\sim$8.5--9.0 earthquake in 1877, which induced a tsunami. The various
magnitude estimates of this event are based on the evaluation of historical
records, seismic intensities, and/or tide gauge information; however, its
actual along-strike extent is debated. Based on geodetic data, the previous
studies have suggested that this region has the potential for an Mw8.2--8.8
event. We re-evaluate the seismic potential of the region, accounting for the
buildup rate of moment deficit along the megathrust, the earthquake
magnitude--frequency distribution, and the physics of earthquakes. We combine
an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from
dynamic models of the earthquake cycle, testing, in particular, the influence
of a potential aseismic barrier near the city of Iquique, which may influence
the extent and magnitude of large events in this region. We find that Mw8.8 is
the most probable maximum magnitude earthquake in the region, and that the
potential barrier likely has a limited impact considering uncertainties. We
discuss the effect of the moment deficit rate on the fault, the b-value, and
the importance of postseismic processes on our results.
