  The rapid spread of rumors in social media is mainly caused by individual
retweets. This paper applies uncertainty time series analysis (UTSA) to analyze
a rumor retweeting behavior on Weibo. First, the rumor forwarding is modeled
using uncertain time series, including order selection, parameter estimation,
residual analysis, uncertainty hypothesis testing and forecast, and the
validity of using uncertain time series analysis is further supported by
analyzing the characteristics of the residual plot. The experimental results
show that the uncertain time series can better predict the next stage of rumor
forwarding. The results of the study have important practical significance for
rumor management and the management of social media information dissemination.
