  This paper begins with an introduction to qualitative theories and models of
insurgency, quantitative measures of insurgency, influence diagrams, system
dynamics models of insurgency, agent based molding of insurgency,
human-in-the-loop wargaming of insurgency, and statistical models of
insurgency. The paper then presents a detailed case study of an agent-based
model that focuses on the Troubles in Northern Ireland starting in 1968. The
model is agent-based and uses a modeling tool called Simulation of Cultural
Identities for Prediction of Reactions (SCIPR). The objective in this modeling
effort was to predict trends in the degree of population's support to parties
in this conflict. The case studies describes in detail the agents, their
actions, model initialization and simulation process, and the results of the
simulation compared to actual historical results of elections.
