  We consider the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown
dynamics in which a player chooses M out of N arms to play at each time. The
reward state of each arm transits according to an unknown Markovian rule when
it is played and evolves according to an arbitrary unknown random process when
it is passive. The performance of an arm selection policy is measured by
regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to the case where the player
knows which M arms are the most rewarding and always plays the M best arms. We
construct a policy with an interleaving exploration and exploitation epoch
structure that achieves a regret with logarithmic order when arbitrary (but
nontrivial) bounds on certain system parameters are known. When no knowledge
about the system is available, we show that the proposed policy achieves a
regret arbitrarily close to the logarithmic order. We further extend the
problem to a decentralized setting where multiple distributed players share the
arms without information exchange. Under both an exogenous restless model and
an endogenous restless model, we show that a decentralized extension of the
proposed policy preserves the logarithmic regret order as in the centralized
setting. The results apply to adaptive learning in various dynamic systems and
communication networks, as well as financial investment.
