  A widely used measure of scientific impact is citations. However, due to
their heavy-tailed distribution, citations are fundamentally difficult to
predict. Instead, to characterize scientific impact, we address two analogous
questions asked by many scientific researchers: "How will my h-index evolve
over time, and which of my previously or newly published papers will contribute
to it?" To answer these questions, we perform two related tasks. First, we
develop a model to predict authors' future h-indices based on their current
scientific impact. Second, we examine the factors that drive papers---either
previously or newly published---to increase their authors' predicted future
h-indices. By leveraging relevant factors, we can predict an author's h-index
in five years with an R2 value of 0.92 and whether a previously (newly)
published paper will contribute to this future h-index with an F1 score of 0.99
(0.77). We find that topical authority and publication venue are crucial to
these effective predictions, while topic popularity is surprisingly
inconsequential. Further, we develop an online tool that allows users to
generate informed h-index predictions. Our work demonstrates the predictability
of scientific impact, and can help scholars to effectively leverage their
position of "standing on the shoulders of giants."
