  The Greenland Sea is an important breeding ground for harp and hooded seals.
Estimates of the annual seal pup production are critical factors in the
abundance estimation needed for management of the species. These estimates are
usually based on counts from aerial photographic surveys. However, only a minor
part of the whelping region can be photographed, due to its large extent. To
estimate the total seal pup production, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical
modeling approach motivated by viewing the seal pup appearances as a
realization of a log-Gaussian Cox process using covariate information from
satellite imagery as a proxy for ice thickness. For inference, we utilize the
stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) module of the integrated nested
Laplace approximation (INLA) framework. In a case study using survey data from
2012, we compare our results with existing methodology in a comprehensive
cross-validation study. The results of the study indicate that our method
improves local estimation performance, and that the increased prediction
uncertainty of our method is required to obtain calibrated count predictions.
This suggests that the sampling density of the survey design may not be
sufficient to obtain reliable estimates of the seal pup production.
