  This work derives a residual-based a posteriori error estimator for reduced
models learned with non-intrusive model reduction from data of high-dimensional
systems governed by linear parabolic partial differential equations with
control inputs. It is shown that quantities that are necessary for the error
estimator can be either obtained exactly as the solutions of least-squares
problems in a non-intrusive way from data such as initial conditions, control
inputs, and high-dimensional solution trajectories or bounded in a
probabilistic sense. The computational procedure follows an offline/online
decomposition. In the offline (training) phase, the high-dimensional system is
judiciously solved in a black-box fashion to generate data and to set up the
error estimator. In the online phase, the estimator is used to bound the error
of the reduced-model predictions for new initial conditions and new control
inputs without recourse to the high-dimensional system. Numerical results
demonstrate the workflow of the proposed approach from data to reduced models
to certified predictions.
