  A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term
citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a
probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication.
Two predictors are used: The impact factor of the journal in which a
publication has appeared and the number of citations a publication has received
one year after its appearance. The proposed model is based on quantile
regression. We employ the model to predict the future number of citations of a
large set of publications in the field of physics. Our analysis shows that both
predictors (i.e., impact factor and early citations) contribute to the accurate
prediction of long-term citation impact. We also analytically study the
behavior of the quantile regression coefficients for high quantiles of the
distribution of citations. This is done by linking the quantile regression
approach to a quantile estimation technique from extreme value theory. Our work
provides insight into the influence of the impact factor and early citations on
the long-term citation impact of a publication, and it takes a step toward a
methodology that can be used to assess research institutions based on their
most recently published work.
