  We develop a model for the distribution of scientific citations. The model
involves a dual mechanism: in the direct mechanism, the author of a new paper
finds an old paper A and cites it. In the indirect mechanism, the author of a
new paper finds an old paper A only via the reference list of a newer
intermediary paper B, which has previously cited A. By comparison to citation
databases, we find that papers having few citations are cited mainly by the
direct mechanism. Papers already having many citations ('classics') are cited
mainly by the indirect mechanism. The indirect mechanism gives a power-law
tail. The 'tipping point' at which a paper becomes a classic is about 21
citations for papers published in the Institute for Scientific Information
(ISI) Web of Science database in 1981, 29 for Physical Review D papers
published from 1975-1994, and 39 for all publications from a list of high
h-index chemists assembled in 2007. The power-law exponent is not universal.
Individuals who are highly cited have a systematically smaller exponent than
individuals who are less cited.
