  The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric
propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the
CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar
system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME
parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $\gamma$. A
very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the
Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of
model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to
calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM
is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the
prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3
version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determing the
DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists as well as it is
compared with previous DBEM versions. The analysis to find the optimal drag
parameter $\gamma$ and ambient solar wind speed $w$ showed that somewhat higher
values ($\gamma \approx 0.3 \times 10^{-7}$ km$^{-1}$, $w \approx$ 425
km\,s$^{-1}$) for both of these DBEM input parameters should be used for the
evaluation compared to the previously employed ones. Based on the evaluation
performed for 146 CME-ICME pairs, the DBEMv3 performance with mean error (ME)
of -11.3 h, mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3 h was obtained. There is a clear
bias towards the negative prediction errors where the fast CMEs are predicted
to arrive too early, probably due to the model physical limitations and input
errors (e.g. CME launch speed).
