  We develop a theory for inferring equilibrium transition rates from
trajectories driven by a time dependent force using results from stochastic
thermodynamics. Applying the Kawasaki relation to approximate the
nonequilibrium distribution function in terms of the equilibrium distribution
function and the excess dissipation, we formulate a nonequilibrium transition
state theory to estimate the rate enhancement over the equilibrium rate due to
the nonequilibrium protocol. We demonstrate the utility of our theory in
examples of pulling of harmonically trapped particles in 1 and 2 dimensions, as
well as a semi-flexible polymer with a reactive linker in 3 dimensions. In all
cases we find that we are able to infer the transition rates more effectively
than phenomenological approaches based on Bell's law. We expect our
thermodynamic approach will find use in both molecular simulation and force
spectroscopy experiments.
