  Effective connectivity analysis provides an understanding of the functional
organization of the brain by studying how activated regions influence one
other. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to model effective
connectivity assuming a dynamic nonstationary neuronal system. Our approach
uses the Dirichlet process to specify an appropriate (most plausible according
to our prior beliefs) dynamic model as the "expectation" of a set of plausible
models upon which we assign a probability distribution. This addresses model
uncertainty associated with dynamic effective connectivity. We derive a Gibbs
sampling approach to sample from the joint (and marginal) posterior
distributions of the unknowns. Results on simulation experiments demonstrate
our model to be flexible and a better candidate in many situations. We also
used our approach to analyzing functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI)
data on a Stroop task: our analysis provided new insight into the mechanism by
which an individual brain distinguishes and learns about shapes of objects.
