  Parameter estimation by nonlinear least squares minimization is a common
problem with an elegant geometric interpretation: the possible parameter values
of a model induce a manifold in the space of data predictions. The minimization
problem is then to find the point on the manifold closest to the data. We show
that the model manifolds of a large class of models, known as sloppy models,
have many universal features; they are characterized by a geometric series of
widths, extrinsic curvatures, and parameter-effects curvatures. A number of
common difficulties in optimizing least squares problems are due to this common
structure. First, algorithms tend to run into the boundaries of the model
manifold, causing parameters to diverge or become unphysical. We introduce the
model graph as an extension of the model manifold to remedy this problem. We
argue that appropriate priors can remove the boundaries and improve convergence
rates. We show that typical fits will have many evaporated parameters. Second,
bare model parameters are usually ill-suited to describing model behavior; cost
contours in parameter space tend to form hierarchies of plateaus and canyons.
Geometrically, we understand this inconvenient parametrization as an extremely
skewed coordinate basis and show that it induces a large parameter-effects
curvature on the manifold. Using coordinates based on geodesic motion, these
narrow canyons are transformed in many cases into a single quadratic, isotropic
basin. We interpret the modified Gauss-Newton and Levenberg-Marquardt fitting
algorithms as an Euler approximation to geodesic motion in these natural
coordinates on the model manifold and the model graph respectively. By adding a
geodesic acceleration adjustment to these algorithms, we alleviate the
difficulties from parameter-effects curvature, improving both efficiency and
success rates at finding good fits.
