  High-resolution spectra of Pluto in the 1.66 um region, recorded with the
VLT/CRIRES instrument in 2008 (2 spectra) and 2012 (5 spectra), are analyzed to
constrain the spatial and vertical distribution of methane in Pluto's
atmosphere and to search for mid-term (4 year) variability. A sensitivity study
to model assumptions (temperature structure, surface pressure, Pluto's radius)
is performed. Results indicate that (i) no variation of the CH4 atmospheric
content (column-density or mixing ratio) with Pluto rotational phase is present
in excess of 20 % (ii) CH4 column densities show at most marginal variations
between 2008 and 2012, with a best guess estimate of a ~20 % decrease over this
time frame. As stellar occultations indicate that Pluto's surface pressure has
continued to increase over this period, this implies a concomitant decrease of
the methane mixing ratio (iii) the data do not show evidence for an
altitude-varying methane distribution; in particular, they imply a roughly
uniform mixing ratio in at least the first 22-27 km of the atmosphere, and high
concentrations of low-temperature methane near the surface can be ruled out.
Our results are also best consistent with a relatively large (> 1180 km) Pluto
radius. Comparison with predictions from a recently developed global climate
model GCM indicates that these features are best explained if the source of
methane occurs in regional-scale CH4 ice deposits, including both low latitudes
and high Northern latitudes, evidence for which is present from the rotational
and secular evolution of the near-IR features due to CH4 ice. Our "best guess"
predictions for the New Horizons encounter in 2015 are: a 1184 km radius, a 17
ubar surface pressure, and a 0.44 % CH4 mixing ratio with negligible
longitudinal variations.
