  The code-capacity threshold of a scalable quantum error correcting stabilizer
code can be expressed as a thermodynamic phase transition of a corresponding
Ising model with random bond-disorder. Here we study the XY and XZZX surface
codes under phase-biased noise, $p_x=p_y=p_z/(2\eta)$, with $\eta\geq 1/2$, and
total error rate $p=p_x+p_y+p_z$. By appropriately formulating the boundary
conditions, in the rotated code geometry, we find exact solutions at a special
disordered point, $p=\frac{1+\eta^{-1}}{2+\eta^{-1}}\gtrsim 0.5$, for arbitrary
odd code-distance $d$. The total logical failure rate is given by
$P_{f}=\frac{3}{4}-\frac{1}{4}e^{-2d_Z\,\text{artanh}(1/2\eta)}$, where
$d_{Z}=d^2$ and $d$ for the two codes respectively, is the effective code
distance for pure phase-flip noise. The large finite size corrections for
$d_Z<\eta$ make threshold extractions, using the total logical failure rate for
moderate code-distances, unreliable. We show that independently estimating
thresholds for the $X_L$ (phase-flip), $Y_L$, and $Z_L$ (bit-flip) logical
failure rates can give a more confident threshold estimate. Using this method
for the XZZX model with a tensor-network based decoder we find that the
thresholds converge with code distance to a single value at moderate bias
($\eta=30, 100$), corresponding to an error rate above the hashing bound. In
contrast, for larger bias the thresholds do not converge for practically
maximum-likelihood-decodable code distances (up to $d\approx 100$), leaving a
large uncertainty in the precise threshold value.
