  In spring 2022, the German federal government agreed on a set of measures
that aimed at reducing households' financial burden resulting from a recent
price increase, especially in energy and mobility. These measures included
among others, a nation-wide public transport ticket for 9EUR per month and a
fuel tax cut that reduced fuel prices by more than 15%. In transportation
policy and travel behavior research this is an almost unprecedented behavioral
experiment. It allows to study not only behavioral responses in mode choice and
induced demand but also to assess the effectiveness of transport policy
instruments. We observe this natural experiment with a three-wave survey and an
app-based travel diary on a sample 2'263 individuals; for the Munich Study, 919
participants in the survey-and-app group and 425 in the survey-only group have
been successfully recruited, while 919 participants have been recruited through
a professional panel provider to obtain a representative nation-wide reference
group for the three-wave survey. In this fourth report we present the results
of the third wave. At the end of the study, all three surveys have been
completed by 1'484 participants and 642 participants completed all three
surveys and used the travel diary throughout the entire study. Based on our
results we conclude that when offering a 49EUR-Ticket as a successor to the
9~EUR-Ticket and a local travel pass for 30EUR/month more than 60% of all
9~EUR-Ticket owners would buy one of the two new travel passes. In other words,
a substantial increase in travel pass ownership in Germany can be expected,
with our modest estimate being around 20%. With the announcement of the
introduction of a successor ticket in 2023 as well as with the prevailing high
inflation, this study will continue into the year 2023 to monitor the impact on
mobility and daily activities.
