  We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in
a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event
techniques is presented which leads to a measure capturing `resistance to
change` and `ability to return' aspects in a probabilistic way. The application
of this measure to a conceptual model demonstrates its suitability for
assessing AMOC resilience but also shows its potential use in many other
non-autonomous dynamical systems. This framework is then extended to compute
the probability that the AMOC undergoes a transition conditioned on an external
forcing. Such conditional probability can be estimated by exploiting the
information available when computing the resilience of this system. This allows
us to provide a probabilistic view on safe operating spaces by defining a
conditional safe operating space as a subset of the parameter space of the
(possibly transient) imposed forcing.
