  We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for
technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence
(AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans
can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic tasks
that differ in their complexity. Advances in technology make ever more complex
tasks amenable to automation. The effects on wages depend on a race between
automation and capital accumulation. If the distribution of task complexity
exhibits a sufficiently thick infinite tail, then there is always enough work
for humans, and wages may rise forever. By contrast, if the complexity of tasks
that humans can perform is bounded and full automation is reached, then wages
collapse. But declines may occur even before if large-scale automation outpaces
capital accumulation and makes labor too abundant. Automating productivity
growth may lead to broad-based gains in the returns to all factors. By
contrast, bottlenecks to growth from irreproducible scarce factors may
exacerbate the decline in wages.
