  We present a new stochastic framework for studying ship capsize. It is a
synthesis of two strands of transition state theory. The first is an extension
of deterministic transition state theory to dissipative non-autonomous systems,
together with a probability distribution over the forcing functions. The second
is stochastic reachability and large deviation theory for transition paths in
Markovian systems. In future work we aim to bring these together to make a tool
for predicting capsize rate in different stochastic sea states, suggesting
control strategies and improving designs.
