  An "RF sensor" network can monitor RSS values on links in the network and
perform device-free localization, i.e., locating a person or object moving in
the area in which the network is deployed. This paper provides a statistical
model for the RSS variance as a function of the person's position w.r.t. the
transmitter (TX) and receiver (RX). We show that the ensemble mean of the RSS
variance has an approximately linear relationship with the expected total
affected power (ETAP). We then use analysis to derive approximate expressions
for the ETAP as a function of the person's position, for both scattering and
reflection. Counterintuitively, we show that reflection, not scattering, causes
the RSS variance contours to be shaped like Cassini ovals. Experimental tests
reported here and in past literature are shown to validate the analysis.
