  Prediction is a central goal and a yet-unresolved challenge in the
investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of
predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational
experiments, the first statistically-converged predictability time-scale for
these structures. We show that this time-scale is a function of the sea state
as well as the strength (i.e. overall height) of the expected rogue wave. The
presented predictability time-scale establishes a quantitative metric on the
combined temporal effect of the variety of mechanisms that together lead to the
formation of a rogue wave, and is crucial for the assessment of validity of
rogue waves predictions, as well as for the critical evaluation of results from
the widely-used model equations. The methodology and presented results can have
similar implications in other systems admitting rogue waves, e.g. nonlinear
optics and plasma physics.
