  The beekeeping sector has undergone considerable production variations over
the past years due to adverse weather conditions, occurring more frequently as
climate change progresses. These phenomena can be high-impact and cause the
environment to be unfavorable to the bees' activity. We disentangle the honey
production drivers with tree-based methods and predict honey production
variations for hives in Italy, one of the largest honey producers in Europe.
The database covers hundreds of beehive data from 2019-2022 gathered with
advanced precision beekeeping techniques. We train and interpret the machine
learning models making them prescriptive other than just predictive. Superior
predictive performances of tree-based methods compared to standard linear
techniques allow for better protection of bees' activity and assess potential
losses for beekeepers for risk management.
