  We construct a phenomenological conformal field theory (CFT) model of the
three-dimensional Hawking-Page transition. We find that free fermion CFT models
on the boundary torus give a description of the three-dimensional Hawking-Page
transition. If modular invariance is respected, the free fermion model implies
that the transition occurs continuously through the conical space phase and the
small black hole phase. On the other hand, if we are allowed to break modular
invariance, we can construct a free fermion model that reproduces the usual
Euclidean semi-classical result, and in particular exhibits a first-order phase
transition.
