  Travel restrictions may reduce the spread of a contagious disease that
threatens public health. In this study we investigate what effect different
levels of travel restrictions may have on the speed and geographical spread of
an outbreak of a disease similar to SARS. We use a stochastic simulation model
of the Swedish population, calibrated with survey data of travel patterns
between municipalities in Sweden collected over three years. We find that a ban
on journeys longer than 50 km drastically reduces the speed and the
geographical spread of outbreaks, even with when compliance is less than 100%.
The result is found to be robust for different rates of inter-municipality
transmission intensities. Travel restrictions may therefore be an effective way
to mitigate the effect of a future outbreak.
