  The partition function of ABJM theory on the three-sphere has
non-perturbative corrections due to membrane instantons in the M-theory dual.
We show that the full series of membrane instanton corrections is completely
determined by the refined topological string on the Calabi-Yau manifold known
as local P1xP1, in the Nekrasov-Shatashvili limit. Our result can be
interpreted as a first-principles derivation of the full series of
non-perturbative effects for the closed topological string on this Calabi-Yau
background. Based on this, we make a proposal for the non-perturbative free
energy of topological strings on general, local Calabi-Yau manifolds.
