  The data analysis on deaths in the Lombardy Region and of both the provinces
of Bergamo and Brescia shows a twofold aspect on the trend of the epidemic: -
all the data show a bias linked to the event of March 10th (day for which the
Lombardy region data is partial) and the subsequent change in the way in which
positive cases and deaths are calculated; - following the containment measures
of the Prime Minister's Decree of March 11th, the spread of the epidemic,
although still exponential in nature, has a reduced multiplication coefficient.
Our analysis concludes that the situation is not yet compatible with a plateau
trend and allows us to predict the trend in the number of deaths in the
Lombardy region. We therefore conclude that the containment measures put in
place by the government on March 11th will allow a reduction in deaths from
around 8000 to just over 6500 for March 27th.
