  The Humber region in the UK is a large and diverse industrial area centred
around oil refining, chemical industries and energy production. However there
is currently a desire to see the region transition towards a more bio-based
economy. New bio-related industries are being situated in the region as a
consequence of policy and economic incentives. Many of these industries are
connected through their supply chains, either directly, or by sharing common
suppliers or customers and the growth or decline of one industry can hence have
impacts on many others. Therefore an important question to consider is what
effect this movement towards bio-based industry will actually have on the
regional economy as a whole. In this paper we develop a general abstract
dynamical model for the metabolic interactions of firms or industries. This
dynamical model has been applied to the Humber region in order to gain a deeper
understanding of how the region may develop. The model suggests that the
transition to a bio-based economy will occur with oil refining losing its
dominance to bioethanol production and biological chemical production, whilst
anaerobic digestion grows as a major source of electricity, in turn driving up
the value of regional waste aggregators and arable farming in the overall
economy.
